Winning Sports Picks

5* WISEGUY MUSIC CITY BOWL *BEST BET* on Notre Dame +9

Bottom Line: We are getting Notre Dame at a great number because of its poor finish. Having had a month to regroup, I fully expect the Fighting Irish to give LSU a game. Notre Dame is on a 23-10 ATS run in road/neutral field game against teams with a win percentage of 60-75%, and it has won these games by an average of 3.9 points. The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games. Pound the Fighting Irish.

5* WISEGUY LIBERTY BOWL *BEST BET* on Texas A&M +2.5

Bottom Line: West Virginia is 0-8 ATS as a neutral field favorite since 1992. It is also 0-6 ATS when playing with 2 weeks of rest or more over the last 3 seasons. Pound the Aggies.

4* MAJOR Holiday Bowl *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Nebraska +7.5

Bottom Line: This line is an overreaction to the firing of Bo Pelini. Nebraska is 25-6 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of its last 6 games since 1992. USC is 6-17 ATS after any win over the last 3 seasons, 2-11 ATS off a home win over the last 3 seasons and 1-8 ATS in road/neutral field games after scoring 37 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons.

5* WISEGUY PRE-NEW YEAR's BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State +3

Bottom Line: Penn State has the edge on the sidelines with James Franklin, and it also has the edge on the field with a stifling defense that ranks No. 1 in the nation against the run. The Nittany Lions match up with Boston College extremely well since the Eagles depend on their run game to move the football. It will be nothing doing on the ground against this stout Penn State defense. The Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 20 points, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Bowl games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 December games. Penn State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 non-conference games. Pound Penn State.

4* MAJOR Military Bowl *BLOOD BATH* on Virginia Tech +3

Bottom Line: Playing on any team 7 games or more into the season that averages 3.5 to 4.3 yards per carry (VA Tech) and is up against a team that allows 4.3 to 4.8 yards per carry (Cincy) has resulted in a 25-4 ATS record the last 5 seasons, provided the play on side allowed 75 rushing yards or less last game. Additionally, the Hokies are 12-3 ATS in road/neutral field battles following a close win of 7 points or less over a conference opponent under coach Beamer.

5* WISEGUY St. Petersburg Bowl *BEST BET* on NC State +3

Bottom Line: The Wolfpack are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 bowl games and 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games. They are also on an impressive 22-10 ATS run in road/neutral field venues when getting more than the typical week or preparation time. UCF has struggled when playing away from its home turf. The Knights have won by more than 3 points in just 2 of 6 road/neutral field games this season. This included a really bad loss at UConn. Pound NC State.

5* WISEGUY BAHAMAS BOWL *BEST BET* on Central Michigan +4

Bottom Line: This line is inflated due to Western Kentucky's win over Marshall. I'm not sold on the Hilltoppers. Defense wins championships, and Western Kentucky is arguably the worst defensive team in the country. Central Mich is stout defensively, ranking 16th in the land in total defense with 331.3 ypg allowed. CMU is on a 21-8 ATS run versus excellent passing teams like WKU that average 275 ypg or more through the air. The Chippewas are on an 11-3 ATS run versus poor run defenses that allow 4.75 yards per carry or more. The Chippewas are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games. The Hilltoppers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games versus teams with a winning record. The Chipps should cover this number behind solid defensively play and a strong running game. Pound CMU.

4* MAJOR POINSETTIA BOWL *PUNISHER* on Navy +3

Bottom Line: Navy is a nasty 71-35 ATS in road games since 1992, including 10-2 ATS during this stretch when catching 3 points or less. SDSU is 1-10 ATS since 1992 after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread.

5* WISEGUY Boca Raton Bowl *BEST BET* on Marshall -9

Bottom Line: The Huskies are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 bowl games, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 December contests, 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 versus C-USA schools. All of these trends don't bode well for the Huskies, but here's the clincher: NIU is 0-7 ATS since 1992 in road/neutral field contests versus opponents that carry an average margin of victory of 17 PPG or more on the season. Pound the Thundering Herd.

4* MAJOR Miami Beach Bowl *BLOOD BATH* on BYU +2

Bottom Line: BYU has better talent and coach Bronco Mendenhall has more experience than his counterpart preparing his team for big games. This is the 10th consecutive bowl appearance for the Cougars while Memphis is playing in its first bowl since 2008. BYU has won 6 of its last 8 bowl games and is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 neutral site games. The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. The Cougars are 18-7 ATS under coach Mendenhall when playing against teams with a win percentage of 60-75%. Bet BYU.

4* MAJOR New Mexico Bowl *BEST BET* on Utah State -10

Bottom Line: UTEP must be able to run the football to be successful, but it will have a difficult time running the ball on a Utah State defense that ranks 26th in the nation against the run. With extra time to prepare for UTEP's running game, I expect the Aggies to have success slowing it down. I also expect the Aggies to be highly motivated after getting embarrassed at Boise State last game. Utah State is 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons when getting a bye week's worth of time or more to prepare for an opponent. It is also on a 7-0 ATS run in road/neutral field games following any loss. UTEP is 0-7 ATS against teams with a winning record under coach Kugler and has lost to these teams by 30 PPG on average.

4* MAJOR CFB RIVALRY *BLOOD BATH* on Army +15

Bottom Line: This is a big rivalry game for both teams, but I give Army a slight motivational edge. Navy has a bowl game to look forward to while Army does not. The Black Knights will be treating this as their bowl game. Army should also benefit from extra preparation time. It has had 3 weeks to gear up for this contest, 6 more days than Navy. Navy has won 12 straight in the series, and that's not sitting well with the Black Knights. Army appeared close to breaking through, playing the Midshipmen to 6-point game in 2011 and a 4-point game in 2012 before getting embarrassed 34-7 last season. Army returns 16 starters that remember how badly that loss hurt. The Black Knights may come up short, but should give Navy a game here. The Midshipmen are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 versus teams with a losing record.

4* MAJOR BIG 10 CHAMPIONSHIP TOTAL DOMINATOR on Ohio State/Wisconsin UNDER 52.5

Bottom Line: Ohio State will be limited offensively following the loss of J.T. Barrett. Wisconsin boasts an elite defense, and it should find plenty of success slowing down 3rd-string QB Cardale Jones. With the loss of Barrett, the Buckeyes lose the offensive balance that has made them so successful. I expect them to be a run-heavy team Saturday. Wisconsin will look to run the football as well because that's what it does. The Badgers rank 119th in the nation in passing offense. Ohio State has the horses to slow down Wisconsin's running game. It held the Badgers to just 104 yards on the ground in last season's meeting. In a matchup of 2 quality defenses that have the benefit of knowing what is coming the large majority of the time (running plays), I'll take the under.

5* WISEGUY SEC CHAMPIONSHIP *BEST BET* on Missouri +14.5

Bottom Line: Alabama is getting a little too much respect in this neutral field battle. The Crimson Tide have played 5 neutral field/road games this season and didn't win any of them by more than 14 points. Mizzou has been an awesome investment at 19-6-1 ATS in its last 26 games. The Tigers are 8-1 ATS as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. They are also 9-0 ATS versus good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game over the last 2 seasons. Bama is 0-6 ATS after playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored under Saban. Saban's teams are 0-7 ATS all-time after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored. Pound Mizzou.

4* MAJOR BEDLAM *BLOOD BATH* on Oklahoma State +21

Bottom Line: Besides the fact this is a huge rivalry game, the Cowboys can become bowl eligible with a win. That provides added incentive here. It also helps that they've had an extra week to prepare. The series has been tight of late with 3 of the last 4 games being decided by 9 points or less. The one that wasn't was a 44-10 Oklahoma State victory. Playing against home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points with a good rushing defense that allows 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry, after allowing 1 or less rushing yards/attempt last game, has resulted in a 23-3 ATS record the last 10 seasons. This system is a perfect 5-0 ATS the last 3 seasons.

4* MAJOR PAC-12 *PUNISHER* on Oregon -13

Bottom Line: The Ducks are 7-0 SU and ATS in their last 7 games with each of their last 6 wins coming by at least 18 points. They have just 1 blemish on their record - Arizona - and I expect them to avenge that loss in impressive fashion. The Ducks are 6-0 ATS after leading their previous game by 24 points or more at the half under coach Helfrich. They have won by an average of 32.8 points in this situation. Oregon is also 6-0 ATS in road/neutral field battles after 3 straight covers as a favorite of 7 points or more over the last 3 seasons. It's won by an average of 27.8 points in this situation. Oregon is one runaway freight train I'm not about to step in front of.

5* WISEGUY MAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Bowling Green +7

Bottom Line: This line is an overreaction to Bowling Green losing its last 2. The Falcons had nothing to play in either game as they had already wrapped up the division. Now, they have everything to play for as they have an opportunity to make it back-to-back MAC titles. This is Northern Illinois' 5th straight MAC Championship game, but it has been far from dominant in the previous 4, going 2-2 with the largest margin of victory at the end of regulation being 3 points (won by 7 in OT in the other). Bowling Green is 11-2 ATS the last 3 seasons in road/neutral field venues versus conference foes. Playing underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are off an upset loss to a conference foe as a favorite of 10 or more, provided the game is being played after the first month of the season, has resulted in a 55-25 ATS record since 1992. Pound the Falcons.

5* WISEGUY CFB *BEST BET* on ECU -6.5

Bottom Line: Playing on excellent running teams that average 4.8 yards per rush or more when they are taking on a poor running team that averages 3.0-3.5 yards per rush, provided it is a conference matchup, has resulted in a 95-35 ATS record the last 5 seasons. This system is 21-3 ATS this season, and I'm going to ride it. Pound the Pirates.

4* MAJOR APPLE CUP *PUNISHER* on Washington State +3.5

Bottom Line: Home field has been huge in this series. Excluding a neutral field battle in 2011, the home team has won or lost by 3 points or less in 9 of the last 12 meetings. The home side has won 4 of the last 5. Additionally, Washington is 0-8 ATS in road games after outgaining opponents by 125 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992. It has lost by an average of 13.0 points in this spot.

4* MAJOR C-USA GAME OF THE WEEK on UAB -4

Bottom Line: UAB enters this contest full of confidence after given Marshall all it wanted. It needs a win here to become bowl eligible, and it will be hungry as it looks to avenge last season's ugly 62-27 home loss to So. Miss. The Golden Eagles are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 games overall, 6-15 ATS in their last 21 conference games, 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 versus a team with a losing record and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games.

4* MAJOR EGG BOWL *BLOOD BATH* on Ole Miss +3

Bottom Line: I'll grab the points with the home team, which has been the play in this series. The home team is 13-2 in the last 15 meetings, including 9-1 in the last 10. The season hasn't finished the way Ole Miss had hoped, but it has a chance to end on a high note with a win over its biggest rival. I like the Rebels to get it done.

5* WISEGUY AAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Temple +7

Bottom Line: Cincy has won 5 in a row SU and ATS and is being overvalued on the road as a result. Just 1 win during this stretch came against a quality opponent and it was at home. Now the Bearcats are on the road and up against one of the best defenses they've seen all season. What has Temple done against good offensive teams like Cincinnati the last 2 seasons? It's gone 6-0 ATS versus teams that average 31 ppg or more while holding them to just 26 ppg on average. It held ECU to just 10 points on this field and Memphis to 16. Pound Temple.

5* Wiseguy CFB *BLACK FRIDAY FEAST* on UMass +3

Bottom Line: UMass has played outstanding football this season and has been in every game but 3. The Minutemen had strung together 6 consecutive quality performances before laying an egg at Akron last game, and they will be looking to bounce back strong on Senior Day. They were kicked 32-3 at Buffalo last season so revenge is in order as well. The Minutemen are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games versus teams with a losing road record. The Bulls are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 Friday games. Take the points.

4* MAJOR CFB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Ohio -3

Bottom Line: Ohio needs a win tonight to become bowl eligible, and that's enough of a motivator for it to get the job done. Under coach Solich, the Bobcats are 19-9 ATS versus teams with a win percentage of 25% or lower, and they have defeated these opponents by an average of 14.3 points. The Redhawks are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games versus teams with a losing road record. When the line is +3 to -3, playing against home teams that are outscored by an average of 7.0 ppg or more in the first half - after a game where they combined with an opponent for 60 points or more - has resulted in a 58-28 ATS record since 1992.

4* MAJOR SATURDAY NIGHT *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on UConn +10

Bottom Line: The Huskies shocked Central Florida as an 8-point dog Nov. 1 and are in good position to stun the Bearcats. UConn is 8-0 ATS lifetime in home games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of its last 6 games. It has won by an average of 8.0 points in this spot.

5* WISEGUY LETDOWN GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia +6

Bottom Line: I see Miami suffering a letdown after last week's crushing defeat to Florida State. Not only did Miami blow a 16-0 lead and an opportunity to knock off the undefeated defending national champs, it lost any chance of an ACC Coastal division title. Playing against road favorites that gave up 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game has resulted in a 50-19 ATS record since 1992 if they average 440 ypg or more on the season and are up against a team that allows 330-390 ypg. This system is 16-4 ATS the last 3 seasons and 4-1 ATS this season. Pound Virginia.

4* MAJOR BIG TEN *MARQUEE MATCHUP* (ESPN) on Nebraska -10

Bottom Line: Playing on teams like Nebraska that average 4.9 yards per rush or more and are matched up against a team that allows 4.3 to 4.8 yards per rush, provided the play on team gave up 275 rushing yards or more last game, has resulted in a 47-20 ATS record since 1992. The Huskers are 6-0 at home this season and 7-0 in their last 7 home games versus Minnesota. They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a defeat greater than 20 points.

5* WISEGUY BIG TEN GAME OF THE MONTH on Illinois +6.5

Bottom Line: Penn State is off a 30-13 home win over Temple where it outgained the Owls by 193 yards on the ground. However, the Nittany Lions are 0-7 ATS off a home win over the last 2 seasons, losing by an average of 15.5 points in these games. They are also 0-6 ATS after outrushing an opponent by 150 or more yards over the last 3 seasons, losing by an average of 12.5 points in these games. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Pound the Fighting Illini.

5* WISEGUY CFB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on San Jose State +14.5

Bottom Line: Utah State is getting a little too much respect from odds makers tonight. SJSU hasn't lost by more than 14 points in any of its 6 conference games this season. That's a 6-0 trend I can get behind. The Spartans are also 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Aggies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games, and the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Pound SJSU.

4* MAJOR ACC *SUREFIRE* on North Carolina +6

Bottom Line: Duke is getting a little too much respect from odds makers against a motivated North Carolina squad that still needs a win to become bowl eligible. I'll gladly take the points in this rivalry game considering the Tar Heels have won or lost by fewer than 6 points in 22 of the last 23 meetings, including 10 straight.

4* MAJOR BIG 12 *BLOOD BATH* on West Virginia -2

Bottom Line: In a matchup between teams that average 34.0 ppg or more, playing against road underdogs that are off a game where 60 total points or more were scored has resulted in a 53-26 ATS record since 1992. West Virginia is legit. You don't hang with Alabama, beat Baylor and lose to TCU by a single point if you're not. The Mountaineers are not happy about losing their last two, and they're not happy about last season's 35-12 loss to Kansas State. Look for the Mountaineers to bounce back strong on Senior Night.

4* MAJOR MAC *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Toledo -6.5

Bottom Line: Toledo will be the hungrier team tonight. This is the last home game for the seniors, and the Rockets still have a shot at the MAC West title. Bowling Green has clinched the MAC East so it doesn't have nearly the same level of motivation. Additionally, Toledo has had BG's number. The Rockets have won the last 4 in the series with the 2 home wins during this span coming by double digits. The Falcons are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 meetings at Toledo.

5* Wiseguy MAC *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Ohio +3

Bottom Line: Playing against road favorites that average 440.0 ypg or more that are matched up with a team that averages 330.0 to 390.0 ypg has resulted in a 26-6 ATS record over the last 5 seasons if the team we are fading allowed an average of 6.25 yards per play or more last game. The Bobcats are on a perfect 7-0 ATS run at home versus teams with a win percentage greater than .750. Pound Ohio.

4* Major MAC *SUREFIRE* on Akron -7

Bottom Line: Playing home teams 7 games or more into the season that average 3.5 to 4.3 yards per rush and are matched up with a team that averages 3.0 to 3.5 yards per rush has resulted in a 31-8 ATS record since 1992, provided the play on team has been held to 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. The home teams have been favored by 7.1 points on average in this situation and have won by an average of 15.9 points. This system has produced a perfect 8-0 ATS record the last 5 seasons.

4* Major CFB *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Oregon State +10

Bottom Line: The Arizona State Sun Devils are in danger of a letdown following a big win over Notre Dame that has entered them in Final 4 talk. I'm not completely sold on the Sun Devils, and winning by double digits at Oregon State is too much to ask. The Beavers are 4-0 in their last 4 at home in the series. They are also 8-0 ATS after giving up 450 or more total yards in 2 straight games since 1992. They have won these eight by an average of 9.7 points.

4* Major CFB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Miami +3

Bottom Line: FSU has been playing with fire all season, falling behind early but rallying in the second half. This is where it finally gets burned. Teams headed up by Al Golden are 8-0 ATS lifetime as a home dog of 7 points or less and have won these games by an average of 6.0 points. Golden's squads are also 7-0 ATS at home versus good offensive teams that average 31 or more ppg, 6-0 ATS in home games versus teams that outscore the opposition by 10 ppg or more and 7-0 ATS in home game versus teams with a pass completion percentage of 62% or higher. Bet Miami.

5* Wiseguy SEC Game of the Month on Georgia -2

Bottom Line: This is a major letdown spot for Auburn after fumbling away a comeback victory and a spot in the football playoff last week. The Bulldogs will have no problem getting up for this one. As you recall, they were gut-punched by Auburn on a tipped 73-yard TD with 25 seconds left last November. 7 games or more into the season, playing against road dogs that average 6.2 yards per play or more and have averaged 525 or more total yards over their last 2 games has resulted in a 25-4 ATS record since 1992, provided they are up against a team that allows 4.8 to 5.6 yards per play. The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Pound Georgia.

5* Wiseguy Pac-12 Game of the Year on Stanford -8

Bottom Line: This is Stanford's last home game of the season, and it will make it count. The Cardinal still need a win to become bowl eligible so they will be highly motivated. They should also be the more prepared side with last week off to focus solely on this contest. The Cardinal are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss. They are 6-0 ATS the last 2 seasons in home games after a game where they did not cover. They are also 6-0 ATS the last 2 seasons in home games after playing their last game on the road. Utah has really struggled to stop the run lately, not a good sign considering it is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Pound Stanford.

4* Major CFB Early *BLOOD BATH* on Virginia Tech +5.5

Bottom Line: Duke has had a nice run, but VA Tech will put more talent on the field Saturday, and that gives it an excellent shot at pulling the upset. Since joining the ACC in 2004, the Hokies are 9-1 against Duke with the lone loss coming by only 3 points. They are 4-0 at Duke during this stretch. Grab the points.

5* Wiseguy CFB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Tulsa/Central Florida UNDER 56.5

Bottom Line: We are getting a very generous number because Tulsa has been over the total in 8 of 9 games this season and Central Florida has finished over the total in 3 of its last 4. The Knights had arguably their worst defensive performance of the season last game, giving up 37 points in a loss at lowly Connecticut. Now home, where they are allowing only 14.5 ppg, and having had all of last week off to focus on Tulsa, I expect to see the Knights turn in one of their best defensive performances of the season. It also works in our favor that Central Florida isn't strong offensively. It ranks 115th in the country with just 330.1 ypg. Tulsa is averaging just 20.5 ppg on the road. So rounding up, we have a range of 15-21 points based on what Central Florida gives up at home and what Tulsa scores on the road. This is significant because the Knights are 25-9 UNDER when they allow 15 to 21 points since 1992. I'll bet the under based on this estimated stat trend.

4* Major ESPN2 *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on East Carolina -1.5

Bottom Line: The Pirates were stunned at Temple last time out but have had a bye week to regroup, and I fully expect them to respond tonight. They are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss and 6-0 ATS off a road loss over the last 3 seasons. Cincy is 0-8 ATS in home games off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite since 1992.

4* Major MAC Monster on Ball State +4

Bottom Line: Ball State is an unbelievable 43-16 ATS in its last 59 road games, including 15-3 ATS in its last 18 as an underdog of 7 points or less. The Cardinals are also 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games versus a team with a losing home record. The Cardinals lost 35-21 to Northern Illinois last week in an ugly 5-turnover performance, but they are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home and 6-0 ATS after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers over the last 3 seasons.

4* Major CFB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Northern Illinois -4.5

Bottom Line: At home on Senior Night with a chance to move into first place in the MAC West, Northern Illinois will take care of business. The Huskies are 4-0 in their last four against Toledo and 3-0 in their last 3 home meetings in the series. These 3 home wins have come by 31, 35 and 7 points. The Huskies get some additional help tonight from Toledo's banged up QB position. Woodside is questionable and won't be close to 100% if he does play. The Rockets took care of Kent State last week, but they are 0-7 ATS in road games off a win against a conference opponent under coach Campbell. Playing against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are off 2 straight wins in conference play and are up against a team that's off a double-digit road win has resulted in a 42-10 ATS record over the last 10 seasons.

4* MAJOR ESPN ATS *BLOOD BATH* on Virginia +20.5

Bottom Line: The Seminoles have been extremely overvalued all season and are just 2-6 ATS as a result. They should be 1-7 ATS as they were very fortunate to cover last week after falling behind 21-0 at Louisville. The Noles have only 1 win by more than 18 points in FBS action this season. Last week's 25-point loss at Georgia Tech doesn't look good for Virginia, but it hadn't lost by more than 8 points prior to that. The Seminoles are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Virginia keeps this one within the number.

5* WISEGUY C-USA GAME OF THE YEAR on Western Kentucky -7.5

Bottom Line: When UTEP has been deemed an underdog by odds makers, it's been for good reason. The Miners are just 3-11 ATS when catching points under coach Kugler and have lost these games by 20.9 points on average. They are also 1-8 ATS under Kugler in road games falling after the first month of the season, losing these by an average of 28.9 points. Pound WKU.

5* WISEGUY BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK on Northwestern +2

Bottom Line: Michigan handled Indiana last week, but I'm not sold that the Wolverines are back. They are a dismal 1-9 ATS in road games following a home win under coach Brady Hoke and have lost by an average of 8.3 points in these contests. Pound Northwestern.

4* MAJOR BIG 12 *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Oklahoma -5.5

Bottom Line: I really feel Oklahoma is the better team, and it will be lacking no motivation after the beating it was handed at Baylor last season. Playing against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in a conference game involving teams that average 34 ppg or more has resulted in a 39-15 ATS record since 1992. Additionally, favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in weeks 10-13 that are off a win of 35 points or more over a conference opponent are 60-26 ATS since 1992.

5* Wiseguy CFB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Wyoming +7.5

Bottom Line: This is a great spot to back the Cowboys catching better than a TD at home. They were able to snap a 4-game skid last week with an impressive win at Fresno State. Momentum has meant a lot to Wyoming, which is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games following a win of more than 20 points and 24-7 ATS in its last 31 games after outgaining a foe by 175 yards or more. Playing on the road back-to-back weeks is never easy, especially on a short week when the last game was a lengthy trip (Hawaii in this case). To make matters worse the Aggies are on their 4th QB. Utah State handled the Cowboys last season, but that ensures us that Wyoming will be looking for payback. Pound the Cowboys.

4* Major AAC *SYSTEM SUREFIRE* on Memphis -7

Bottom Line: Playing road favorites that have beaten the spread by 49 points or more in their last seven games has resulted in a 46-16 (74%) ATS record over the last 3 seasons. Temple snapped East Carolina's 5-game win streak last week, but it shouldn't have. The Pirates committed five costly turnovers. The fact the Pirates outgained Temple 432-135 tells the real story. Memphis is the more talented team and should take care of business tonight.

5* Wiseguy CFB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Wake Forest +21

Bottom Line: Clemson is being overvalued on the road considering it has only 1 win of more than 21 points against FBS competition this season. Wake Forest has just 2 defeats of more than 21 points this season and has put forth some quality efforts when the odds have been stacked against it, going 3-1 ATS as a double-digit dog this season. Clemson is 0-3 ATS in its last 3 games as a favorite as the offensive hasn't held up on its end of the bargain. The Demon Deacons have been smacked by Clemson the past 2 seasons so they'll draw a little added incentive from those defeats. Pound Wake Forest.

4* Major MAC *BEST BET* on Ball State +3.5

Bottom Line: The Huskies are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 conference games. The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a bye week and 13-5 ATS off a win against a against a conference rival under coach Lembo. NIU stood in Ball State's way of an undefeated record in conference play last season. Look for the Cardinals to have their revenge.

4* Major MAC *BEST BET* on Kent State +14

Bottom Line: Toledo fits into a negative wagering situation that has been money in the bank. Playing against road teams like Toledo that have a win percentage of 60-80% and have failed to cover the number in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games has resulted in a 67-29 ATS record since 1992. This system has gone 14-3 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Rockets haven't defeated an FBS opponent by more than 14 points this season because they are soft defensively. Grab the points.

4* Major Big 12 Game of the Week on Oklahoma State +12

Bottom Line: The Cowboys are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games following a loss of more than 20 points and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a home loss of 10 points or more. Playing against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that held their last opponent to 9 points or less has resulted in a 29-7 ATS record since 1992, provided they are taking on a team that has lost its last 2 games by 17 points or more.

5* Wiseguy Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year on New Mexico State +7.5

Bottom Line: We'll back New Mexico State at home off a bye against a Texas State team that will be looking ahead to next week's showdown with Georgia Southern. In a game between teams with 8 of more returning offensive starters, taking home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that were outgained by 125 or more total yards last game has resulted in a 46-17 ATS record since 1992. This system is 7-1 ATS the last 3 seasons. New Mexico State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 home games. The Bobcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win. Pound the Aggies.

4* Major ACC *BLOOD BATH* on Virginia Tech -3.5

Bottom Line: VA Tech has dropped its last two, but it is 12-3 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992 and has won these games by an average of 11.0 points. BC is 1-10 ATS in road games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons, losing by an average of 9.9 points in this situation.

4* Major CFB Revenge Game of the Week on Connecticut +11

Bottom Line: UConn went down 62-17 at UCF last season, and I expect an inspired performance here as it looks to save face. UCF is off a big win over Temple and has a bye next week and it will have a tough time getting up for this one as a result. UConn is 8-0 ATS all-time off 2 consecutive road losses. It's also 7-0 ATS lifetime in home games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of its last 6 games. UCF is 1-8 ATS off a home win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. The Knights are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a losing record.

5* Wiseguy Big Ten Game of the Week on Maryland +4

Bottom Line: This is a huge letdown spot for Penn State following last week's tough-to-swallow OT loss to Ohio State. This is a big bounce-back spot for Maryland after getting kicked at Wisconsin last week. The Terrapins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss and 7-0 ATS the last 3 seasons in road games after being held to 100 rushing yards or less last game. Playing against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with an excellent rushing defense that allows 100 or less rushing yards per game, after gaining 2 or less rushing yards per attempt last game, has resulted in a 42-15 ATS record since 1992. This system is 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons.

5* Wiseguy CFB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* Game of the Month on Tulane +6.5

Bottom Line: Tulane is 12-4 ATS at home under coach Johnson, including 6-1 ATS in its last 7 at Yulman Stadium. Playing home teams with a +/- 40 rushing ypg margin has resulted in a 26-6 ATS record the last 10 seasons provided they've held their last 2 opponents to 100 yards or fewer on the ground and are playing a team that has been outrushed by an average of 50 ypg or more on the season. Pound Tulane.

5* Wiseguy ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisville +4.5

Bottom Line: I think some have forgotten just how good a coach Bobby Petrino is. Having had a bye week to prepare, he and his coaching staff will have their No. 1 ranked defense ready for the Noles. Petrino's college teams are 39-17 ATS all-time at home, including 29-12 ATS after the first month of the season and 23-7 ATS in the second half of the season. The Seminoles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Florida State has had a few really close calls this season and will have a tough time making it out of this one alive. Pound the Cardinals.

4* MAJOR CFB *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Hawaii +3

Bottom Line: Nevada is ripe for a letdown following last week's upset win at BYU. The Wolf Pack have been a poor investment off a win, going just 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games following victories. Hawaii enjoys a nice home field advantage because teams are often jetlagged after making the long trip. The Rainbow Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. The home team has won, or lost by less than 3 points, in 13 of the last 14 meetings. Hawaii is 6-1 in its last 7 home games versus Nevada. Bet Hawaii.

5* WISEGUY BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK on Penn State +14.5

Bottom Line: This is a great spot to back the Nittany Lions. Off back-to-back losses, they will be focused. Furthermore, they were hammered 63-14 by Ohio State last season - the worst loss in program history since 1899. Penn State's 41 returning lettermen will be out for payback. The fact they have had an extra week to prepare only adds value to this play. The Nittany Lions are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss. Penn State is 22-10 ATS in home games off a road loss since 1992. Coach James Franklin's teams are 9-1 ATS lifetime in home games played on a grass field. Bet Penn State.

4* MAJOR SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tennessee +17.5

Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from Alabama following last week's 59-0 rout of Texas A&M. Bama has a bye week next week, and I wouldn't be surprised if it starts its off week early. The Crimson Tide have been a poor investment as they are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. They're 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games and struggled to beat Arkansas in their last road game. Playing against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points 7 games or more into the season has resulted in a 56-23 ATS record since 1992 if they are an excellent defensive team that allows 16 ppg or less and has allowed 17 points or less in 2 straight games, and if they are playing a team that allows 21-28 ppg. Teams fitting this scenario have won by just 9.6 points on average. This system is 8-1 ATS the last 3 seasons.

5* WISEGUY 2014 CFB GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma State pk

Bottom Line: I love the Cowboys at home where they are 4-0 this season with an 18.5-point average margin of victory. Oklahoma State took it on the chin big time at TCU last week and, in case that loss isn't enough motivation, it was upset at West Virginia last season. The Cowboys are on a 13-3 ATS run at home following a defeat of 21 points or more in conference play. WVU won't bring the same level of motivation into this one following last week's upset win over Baylor. The Cowboys are on a 17-4 ATS run at home versus teams with a win percentage of 60-75%. Oklahoma State has been about as reliable as it comes at Boone Pickens, where it has just 4 losses since 2010. It is 30-4 in its last 34 at home, including 24-2 in its last 26. Pound Oklahoma State.
 

5* Wiseguy CFB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Cincinnati -10

Bottom Line: This game is all about revenge for Cincinnati, which was upset at South Florida last season. The Bearcats won the yardage battle 350-241 but were killed by 4 turnovers. Cincy is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last 5 at home versus the Bulls with all 4 victories coming by at least 14 points. The Bulls are 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings overall. Playing home favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points has resulted in a 43-18 ATS record since 1992 if they give up 440 ypg or more and are playing a team that allows 390 to 440 ypg. Pound Cincy.

5* Wiseguy ACC Game of the Week on Miami pk

Bottom Line: When the line is +3 to -3, playing road teams with a win percentage between 51-60% has resulted in a 22-6 ATS record the last 3 seasons. Miami has had a bye week to prepare, and it will be out for some serious revenge following last season's 42-24 home loss to the Hokies. The Hurricanes are 9-1 ATS in road games the last 22 seasons versus teams with a win percentage between 51-60%. The Canes are also 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a win of more than 20 points. The Hokies went down at Pitt last week as they gave up 210 yards on the ground. They are missing D-tackle Luther Maddy in the trenches and have been dealt another blow with leading tackler Chase Williams expected to miss this game with a knee injury. Without those two, Tech will have a tough time slowing down Duke Johnson and a Miami running game that has averaged 215 yards over its last 3 games. The Hokies are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. Pound Miami.

4* Major Sun Belt *SUREFIRE* on Louisiana-Lafayette +3

Bottom Line: The Ragin' Cajuns dominated Arkansas State last season on the road. They won by 16 points in a game that wasn't even as close as the score looked considering they outgained the Red Wolves by 302 yards. With all but 5 starters back, I expect the Ragin' Cajuns to take care of business again. ULL is 7-1 in its last 8 home games in the series and is an impressive 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games versus teams with a winning record. Additionally, playing against road favorites with a good run defense that allows 3.25 ypc or less, provided they averaged 5.5 ypc or more in their last 2 games, has resulted in a 69-34 ATS record since 1992. Bet ULL.

5* Wiseguy SEC Game of the Week on Tennessee +16.5

Bottom Line: Ole Miss is off back-to-back huge wins over Alabama and Texas A&M and has covered the spread in every game this season. As a result, odds makers have overinflated the line, giving us a great opportunity to strike with Tennessee. The Vols have played some great competition, stepping on the field with Oklahoma, Georgia and Florida. It lost to Georgia and Florida by 4 points combined, and while Florida might not be at the level of Ole Miss this season, Georgia is. The Tennessee defense has been extremely impressive, holding foes to 19.2 points and 316.3 ypg. I think the Vols will be solid enough defensively to keep this one within the number. Tennessee is a reliable 29-12 ATS in road games in weeks 5 through 9 (typically conference contests) since 1992. Additionally, road teams that have held their opponents to 17 points or less in 2 straight games are 100-57 ATS the last 3 seasons. Pound Tennessee.

4* Major ACC *BEST BET* on Virginia +3

Bottom Line: I'll grab the field goal with Virginia giving the motivational and situational edges it has in this game. The Cavs have lost 2 straight to Duke by double digits so they'll want this one just a little bit more. Plus, they will benefit from having had an extra week to game plan. The Cavs have been a sweet investment, going 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8. They are even 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 versus winning teams and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games versus teams with a winning home record. Bet Virginia.

5* Wiseguy Big Ten Game of the Year on Maryland -4.5

Bottom Line: Maryland was crushed by 28 at home in its last game, which means it went into its bye week hungry. Teams tend to respond following lopsided losses, especially at home, and Maryland is 21-8 ATS the last 22 seasons in home games after a defeat of 17 or more points. Iowa blew out Indiana last Saturday but was fortunate to do so. It had a week to prepare for Indiana's running attack and allowed the Hoosiers to rack up 316 yards on the ground. It was outgained for the game, and I think the Hawkeyes were in trouble if Sudfeld (QB) isn't lost to injury. The Hawkeyes are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Maryland didn't run the football well at all against Ohio State, and you can bet that didn't set well with coach Edsall. His teams are 18-6 ATS all-time after being held to 75 or less rushing yards. Pound Maryland.

5* Wiseguy CFB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Houston -7

Bottom Line: Playing against underdogs of 3.5-10.0 points that are off two straight wins against conference opponents and are matched up against an opponent that checks in off a road win has resulted in a 58-20 (74%) ATS record the last 10 seasons. These teams have been underdogs of 6.5 points on average and have lost by 12.4 points on average. Houston returns 17 starters from a team that went on the road last season and defeated Temple by 9 points. That game was even more lopsided than the score indicates as the Cougars outgained the Owls 524-300. While the Owls are improved, they haven't closed the gap enough to keeps this one within the number. Pound Houston.

4* Major Pac-12 *POWERHOUSE* on Oregon State +3

Bottom Line: I'll grab the points with Oregon State at home with extra time to prepare against a Utah team it has had the number of. Oregon State went on the road and upset the Utes last season, and the Beavers won by double digits at home the previous year. The Utes are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games following a win and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 conference games. The Beavers are 19-7 ATS following a bye week under coach Riley and 43-16-1 ATS in their last 60 games in October. The Beavers are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between the schools. When odds makers are expecting a close game, it hasn't been wise to bet against Oregon State, which is 27-14 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 under Riley. It has won these games by an average of 3.5 points. Bet the Beavers.

5* Wiseguy ACC Game of the Week on Pittsburgh -110

Bottom Line: The bye week couldn't have come at a better time for Pittsburgh, which has lost its last three. At home and with extra time to regroup, I expect the Panthers to get back in the win column. Pitt has been a terrific bounce-back team (in terms of the number), going 22-7-1 ATS in its last 30 following a loss. Virginia Tech, on the other hand, is 9-20 ATS in its last 29 following a win. The Hokies are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings and 0-5 ATS in the last 5 at Pittsburgh. Pound the Panthers.

5* Wiseguy Sun Belt Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Louisiana Lafayette +3

Bottom Line: The Ragin' Cajuns are 2-3 but have played a tough schedule with games at Ole Miss and Boise State. They were the preseason pick of most to win the Sun Belt with 17 starters back. They are off to a 1-0 start in the league, but they have no time to relax as Georgia Southern is already 4-0 in conference play. Lafayette won last season's battle 48-24 while outgaining the Bobcats 572-196. Normally, I would look to play the revenge angle here, but I expect the Ragin' Cajuns to be ready after narrowly escaping Georgia State last time out. Texas State is 3-2 and averaging 38.6 ppg but hasn't played the same caliber of opponents as Lafayette. Besides, the Cajuns are 6-0 ATS in road games versus teams that average 31 ppg or more under coach Hudspeth, and they have won these games by an average of 12.3 points. Pound ULL.

4* Major SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas A&M -2

Bottom Line: This is a major letdown spot for Ole Miss following a massive win over Alabama. Meanwhile, this is a bounce back spot for A&M after getting taken out behind the woodshed by Mississippi State. A&M gave up 559 yards to the Bulldogs, but it is 10-1 ATS in home games after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. The defense has held the opposition to an average of 13.6 points in this situation. Sumlin's teams are a sensational 21-9 ATS lifetime as home chalk, and his Texas A&M teams are 6-0 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63. They've won these 6 by an average of 28.0 points.

4* Major *DOUBLE DIGIT BLOOD BATH* on UTSA -12

Bottom Line: This game depends on which UTSA team shows up. Will it be the one that took Arizona down to the wire or the one that didn't show up against New Mexico? Following the New Mexico debacle, I'm expecting a huge bounce-back effort. Based on statistics, I ran 2 simulations and both had UTSA winning 31-9 while outgaining FIU 409-194. The Roadrunners ran for 155 yards and passed for 254 while holding the Golden Panthers to just 4.5 yards per pass attempt. Based on these simulations, the following trends apply. UTSA is 6-0 ATS when its allows 8 to 14 points over the last 3 seasons, 8-0 ATS when it scores 29 to 35 points over the last 3 seasons, 6-0 ATS when it rushes for 150 to 200 yards over the last 3 seasons and 6-0 ATS when it allows 5 or less net passing yards/attempt over the last 2 seasons.

4* Major National TV *POWERHOUSE* on North Carolina +17

Bottom Line:This is a look-ahead spot for Notre Dame, which is coming off a satisfying win over Stanford and has a showdown with defending champion Florida State next week. UNC won't get its full focus, and that gives it an excellent opportunity to keep this one within the number. Playing on average offensive teams (UNC) that gain 4.8 to 5.6 ypp that are up against good defensive teams (ND) that allow 4.2 to 4.8 ypp has resulted in a 26-7 ATS record the last 22 years, provided the play on side has given up 525 ypg or more in its previous 3 contests. Teams fitting this system has been underdogs of 14.8 points on average but have lost by only 7.0 points on average.

5* Wiseguy ACC Atlantic Division GAME OF THE YEAR on Clemson -9.5

Bottom Line: Louisville doesn't have enough offense to keep this one within the number. In 3 road games, the Cardinals are averaging only 323 ypg. They've been bailed out by their defense, but it won't be able to hold down a Clemson offense that's averaging 585 ypg at home. Louisville's defense currently ranks #1 in the nation, but it is yet to face a team with an explosive passing attack. Expect to see several big plays out of the Tigers with no answer from Louisville against Clemson's Top 10 defense. The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games versus teams that have a winning record. Clemson is 9-0 ATS lifetime at home under Dabo Swinney when laying 7.5 to 14 points and has won by an average of 23.0 points in these games. Pound Clemson.

4* Major ACC Coastal Division GAME OF THE MONTH on Duke +3

Bottom Line: Duke has lost 10 straight to the Yellow Jackets so it will have no problem getting up for this one. I like its chances of earning an outright victory after having had a bye week to gear up. In a conference matchup of low-turnover teams that average 1.25 giveaways per game or fewer, playing against home favorites has resulted in a 79-36 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Duke is 10-2 ATS versus teams that commit 1 turnover per game or less under coach David Cutcliffe. This trend speaks volumes about the Blue Devils. They've had a lot of success against teams that don't beat themselves.

4* Major National TV *POWERHOUSE* on Syracuse +23.5

Bottom Line: FSU will be much more concerned with next week's showdown with Notre Dame than a Syracuse team it defeated 59-3 last season. That brutally embarrassing loss along with last week's ugly performance versus Louisville assures us the Orange will be highly motivated. Syracuse is 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons following a loss to a conference rival. The Seminoles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games.

4* Major Early Letdown on UL Monroe +21.5

Bottom Line: Off a big win over South Carolina and with LSU up next, Kentucky won't give the Warhawks its full attention. The Wildcats are a dismal 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS win, and I'm not hesitating to fade them laying a big number in this letdown spot.

5* Wiseguy *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on UNLV +10

Bottom Line: The UNLV Rebels fit into a powerful system tonight. Playing underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that allow 16 ppg or more in the 1st half and are off 2 or more consecutive unders has resulted in a 71-37 ATS record since 1992. Teams fitting theses parameters have lost on average but only by 4.3 points. Additionally, the Fresno State Bulldogs are only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 Friday night contests. The Rebels, meanwhile, are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 Friday games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference matchups. The Bulldogs have a big showdown with Boise State up next and will look right past a UNLV squad that has dropped 4 straight. The Rebels have lost by more than 10 points just 2 times in their last 16 home games. That's a rock solid trend I'll gladly get behind. Pound UNLV.

5* Wiseguy CFB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on BYU +3

Bottom Line: Even with starting QB Taysom Hill out, BYU is a better football team than Central Florida. Backup QB Christian Stewart struggled last week, but I'm confident he'll be much better after getting 1st team snaps for 5 days. He's a better player than UCF starting QB Justin Holman, who was just 6 of 18 for 101 yards versus Houston last week. The Knights are relying heavily on their run game but won't be able to do so here against a BYU stop unit that is holding foes under the century mark on the ground. UCF has done a good job against the run too but is overmatched here, just like it was against Mizzou when it allowed over 5 ypc. BYU is a dominant 8-1 ATS off a loss the last 3 seasons, winning by 22.2 points on average in these games. Pound the Cougars.

4* Major Sun Belt *SUREFIRE* on Idaho +17

Bottom Line: Off an emotional overtime upset win at Tulsa, this looks to be a letdown spot for Texas State. The Bobcats have cruised against Idaho the past 2 seasons and will likely be looking ahead to their bye week as a result. Playing on road underdogs off a home loss of 14 points or more that return at least 17 starters has resulted in a 67-31 ATS record since 1992. Teams fitting this system have lost on average but only by 11.9 points so the value is there at this line.

5* Wiseguy SEC Game of the Year on Auburn -7.5

Bottom Line: With this line, the books are begging for action on LSU, which handed Auburn its only defeat of the 2013 regular season. We won't take the bait. That loss is all the motivation Auburn will need Saturday. Under Malzahn, Auburn is 7-0 ATS versus teams that have a winning record, 6-0 ATS versus teams with a win percentage above 75%, 6-0 ATS versus teams that average 34 ppg or more, 7-0 ATS versus teams that average 450 ypg or more, 6-0 ATS versus teams that average 8 or more passing yards per attempt and 6-0 ATS versus teams that average 200 or more rushing yards per game. Auburn is also 9-0 ATS in its last 9 conference games. Pound Auburn.

4* Major MAC *MONSTER* on Eastern Michigan +23

Bottom Line: Eastern Michigan has lost its last 3 games by double digits but 2 of those were at Florida and Michigan State. It had last week off following that daunting stretch and should benefit from the extra recovery and preparation time this week. Akron is in a letdown spot following a huge upset win at Pitt. It won by 11 points as a 20.5-point dog. Eastern Mich is on a 16-6 ATS run in road games following a road defeat of 21 points or more. Playing on road underdogs that are off a loss of 21 points or more and up against an opponent that had scored 7 points or less in the 1st half in 2 straight games has resulted in a 49-19 ATS record the last 10 seasons. This system has gone 15-2 ATS the last 3 seasons. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings, and the Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Akron. Bet Eastern Mich.

5* Wiseguy CFB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on San Diego State +3

Bottom Line: When the line is +3 to -3, road teams the average 16.0 ppg or more in the 1st half that are off a game that went under the total are 56-22 ATS the last 5 seasons. This system is 34-9 ATS the last 3 seasons and 2-0 ATS this season. The Aztecs are an awesome 15-4 straight up (13-6 ATS) in their last 19 conference contests. They'll be out for some serious revenge here after losing last season's battle in OT despite outgaining the Bulldogs by 166 total yards. Odds makers expected the Aztecs to have their revenge by opening them as the 1.5-point favorite. The line has gone the other way with Quinn Kaehler expected to miss, but his absence doesn't warrant that big of a swing. Pound San Diego State as they win this game with their running attack and defense.

4* Major CFB *BEST BET* on UCF +3.5

Bottom Line: UCF is more battle tested having taken the field against Penn State and Mizzou. Houston did play BYU but gave up 523 yards to the Cougars and trailed 23-0 before they called off the dogs. UCF won last season's meeting by 5 points despite losing the turnover battle. UCF led the game by 12 points late in the 4th. Road underdogs that average 4.8 to 5.6 yards per play and allowed 225 total yards or less last game are 27-6 ATS the last  10 seasons when they are matched up against a team that gives up 4.2 to 4.8 yards per play. This system is a dominant 10-1 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams headed up by coach O'Leary are 11-1 ATS lifetime  in road games off a home blowout win of 28 points or more. Bet UCF.

5* Wiseguy ACC Coastal Game of the Year on Miami -7

Bottom Line: This is a game I had circled before the season began, and Miami's loss at Nebraska last week adds even more value to this play. Prior to last season's loss at Duke, the Hurricanes were 8-0 against the Blue Devils since joining the ACC. These 8 wins came by an average of 19.1 points. You can bet the Hurricanes haven't forgotten about the 18-point butt-kicking they received at Duke last year, and they'll be out for some serious payback. Miami has been extremely reliable at home where it is 10-1 in its last 11 with the 10 wins coming by an average of 24.4 points. Miami is 4-0 lifetime in home conference contests versus Duke, winning them by 27 ppg. Each of these 4 have come by double digits. Pound Miami.

4* Major CFB *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Air Force +13

Bottom Line: Air Force has a legit opportunity to win this game outright as a double-digit dog. Boise State won last season's home meeting by 22 as it held the Falcons to 99 yards passing.  While Air Force remains a run-heavy team, its passing attack is greatly improved and should have a big impact here. Plus, Air Force has had an extra week to prepare for this battle and should have a few tricks up its sleeve.  Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points that have a win percentage of 60-80% and are off a no-cover victory are 33-9 ATS the last 10 seasons if they are matched up against a team with a winning record. This system is 17-3 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Broncos are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 versus teams with a winning record, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a win of more than 20 points and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Bet Air Force.

4* Major *DOUBLE DIGIT BLOOD BATH* on Rice -9.5

Bottom Line: Look for 0-3 Rice to take its frustrations out all over So. Miss. After losses at Notre Dame and Texas A&M, Rice was upset at home by Old Dominion last week. You better believe that defeat isn't sitting well. Rice possessed the ball 15 minutes more than Old Dominion but gave up too many big plays through the air. The Owls have a much more favorable matchup this week because the Golden Eagles don't have an explosive passing attack.  Teams have ran at will on So. Miss this season averaging 255 yards per game on 5.9 yards per carry. Rice has had a ton of success on the ground (222 ypg), and I expect it to run wild on the Golden Eagles. The Golden Eagles are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games overall, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games, 3-11 ATS in their last 14 conference games and 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 versus teams with a losing record.

4* Major Big Ten Game of the Week on Northwestern +10.5

Bottom Line: Penn State is 0-6 ATS off a home win over the last 2 seasons, losing by an average of 14.3 points in this spot. Additionally, playing against home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that give up an average of 3.25 rushing yards or less per carry and allowed 1 or less rushing yards per carry last game has resulted in a 23-3 ATS record the last 10 seasons. This system is a perfect 5-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. Bet Northwestern.

4* Major *ODDSMAKER ERROR* on Tulane +12

Bottom Line: Oddsmakers have missed the mark with this line. Off a big upset win at Navy and with Ohio State on deck, Rutgers will have a difficult time focusing on the task at hand. Tulane is better than its 1-3 record looks. It should be 2-2 (blew a 14-0 lead at Tulsa). It put up nearly 400 yards of offense on Duke last week but was done in by 5 giveaways. The Scarlet Knights are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 versus losing teams. Tulane is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 following an ATS loss. It is also 8-1 ATS under coach Johnson in weeks 5-9. Bet Tulane.

4* Major on CFB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on MTSU +4

Bottom Line: MTSU's 19-point SU and ATS loss at Memphis last week bodes well for us as it is 8-1 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the number the last 3 seasons and has won by an average of 9.8 points in this spot. This is too many points for ODU to be laying considering how porous it has been defensively. It's given up 223 rushing yards per game the last 3 weeks and had no answer for the Hampton, NC State or Rice passing attacks. The Blue Raiders have a balanced offense that should really give the Monarchs fits. This one has the makings of a shootout, and I'll gladly grab the points.

5* Wiseguy Pac-12 Game of the Month on UCLA -4

Bottom Line: This game is all about revenge for the Bruins, who allowed ASU to clinch the Pac-12 South on their turf last season. ASU returns just 8 starters from last year's squad while UCLA brings back 17. It looks like Hundley will go for the Bruins, but Kelly will not be under center for the Sun Devils. Regardless if Hundley plays, UCLA has edges at other positions all over the field. The Bruins have not played to their potential yet this season but should have no problem getting up for this game. Additionally, UCLA's first 3 foes have provided a much bigger test than ASU's. Facing Virginia and Texas does a lot more to prepare a team than facing New Mexico and Colorado. The Bruins are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games versus a team with a winning home record and 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Pound UCLA.

4* Major Big 12 *BLOOD BATH* (ESPN) on Texas Tech +14

Bottom Line: Texas Tech was down 21-0 before it knew what happened in last season's meeting with Oklahoma State. It appeared to be hungover following a tough loss at Oklahoma that dropped it to 7-1. It was able to climb back within 4 points by halftime but couldn't get anything going in the second half.  The Red Raiders will be focused this time around, knowing they can't afford to get off to another slow start. Last week's disappointing home loss to Arkansas is an additional motivator. Tech is a dominant 21-8 ATS off a home loss the last 22 years. Bet Tech.

4* Major CFB *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Louisiana Lafayette +16.5

Bottom Line: Off consecutive ugly efforts, the Ragin' Cajuns will be all business when they take the field Saturday night.  Turnovers have played a big role in ULL's last 2 losses, and they are also a big reason why the Broncos have won their last 2.  However, road underdogs that forced 1 turnover or less last game are 63-28 ATS since 1992 if they are matched up against an opponent that has forced 3 turnovers or more in 3 consecutive games.  These teams have been underdogs of 15.6 points on average but have lost by just 11.2.  This system is a perfect example of how odds makers overreact to big wins and losses that were heavily influenced by turnovers.  These teams are more evenly matched than this line shows.  Bet ULL.

5* Wiseguy CFB *DOUBLE DIGIT BLOOD BATH* Game of the Month on BYU -14

Bottom Line: This game is all about revenge for the Cougars, who were upset at Virginia last season.  They are the superior team, and I expect them to put a hurting on the Cavaliers here.  Playing home favorites that average 230 or more rushing yards per game against a team that averages 100-140 rushing yards per game has resulted in a 42-17 ATS record the last 5 seasons.  This system carries an average winning margin of 25.9 points.  Pound BYU.

5* Wiseguy CFB *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* Game of the Year on Akron +9

Bottom Line: Marshall is getting way too much respect on the road against an Akron team that has had an extra week to prepare.  I'll gladly take the healthy amount of points in a game Akron has an excellent shot to win outright.  Marshall is 1-8 ATS as a favorite of 3.5-10 points under coach Holliday.  It is 1-9 ATS as a road favorite under its current coach.  The home team is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings, and the Thundering Herd are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Akron.  Pound the Zips.

4* Major CFB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on S. Florida -2

Bottom Line: This is a tougher spot for Connecticut as it hits the road for the first time this season and does so on a short week.  The road hasn't been kind to the Huskies as they were 1-4 on the highway last season.  The road hasn't been kind to either team in this series as the home team is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.  The Bulls are 4-1 in their last 5 home games in the series with the 4 wins coming by 13.0 points on average.  USF has won the last 2 meetings, and I'll lay the small number with it in this one.

5* Wiseguy CFB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Kansas State +9.5

Bottom Line: Playing home underdog of 3.5 to 10 points in a non-conference matchup in the first month of the season, provided they return an experienced starting QB, has resulted in a 130-71 ATS (65%) record since 1992.  This system tightens up to 15-6 ATS the last 3 seasons.  K-State is an unbelievable 65-4 in non-conference contests under coach Snyder.  And, it is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 regular season contests in the underdog role.  Pound the Wildcats.