Winning Sports Picks

20* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -1.5 -114

I love the Braves on the Run Line in this spot against the lowly Pirates with Ace Tim Hudson on the mound. Atlanta is coming off back-to-back losses and will be highly motivated tonight, especially with the Phillies on their heels just 0.5 games back in the NL East. This is a Braves team that has the players who can win this division, or at least get a Wild Card spot and make some noise in the postseason. They take on a Pittsburgh team that is 46-91 this season, hitting .240 and scoring 3.5 RPG.

Hudson is 15-6 with a 2.30 ERA and 1.101 WHIP in 28 starts for the Braves this year. His counterpart is James McDonald, who is 2-5 with a 5.31 ERA and 1.513 WHIP in 7 starts this season. McDonald has been blown up in his last 3 starts, going 0-3 with a 7.72 ERA and 1.837 WHIP with the Pirates losing by 2, 5 and 4 runs in each game, respectively. Hudson is 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last 3 starts vs. Pittsburgh, not allowing a single earned run in 22 innings. The Braves won those 3 games by 8, 7 and 7 runs, respectively. Pittsburgh is 6-23 against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season, losing by 3.4 RPG. Roll with the Braves on the Run Line.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Colorado Rockies -1.5 +113

Colorado is playing great baseball right now, and I'll back them on the Run Line Monday with Ace Ubaldo Jimenez on the bump. The Rockies are 10-4 in their last 14 games overall. Jimenez is 17-6 with a 2.69 ERA and 1.118 WHIP this season for Colorado. He'll be up against Aaron Harang who is on the downside of his career. Harang is just 6-7 with a 4.92 ERA and 1.505 WHIP this season, including 1-3 with a 5.62 ERA and 1.562 WHIP in 6 road starts.

Jimenez has never lost to Cincinnati, going 2-0 (4-0 on the money line) in four starts while posting a 2.42 ERA and 1.077 WHIP. Colorado is 13-3 in all meetings with Cincinnati over the last 3 seasons, including 6-1 in their last 7 home meetings. Harang is 1-11 against the money line on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons, losing by an average of 2.7 RPG. Jimenez is 18-2 against the money line as a home favorite of -150 or more over the last 2 seasons, with the Rockies winning by 3.8 RPG in this spot. Finally, Colorado is 15-1 against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season, winning by 3.0 RPG. Bet the Rockies Monday.

15* on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 -120

I really like the Cards to win this game by 2 runs or more behind Ace Adam Wainwright. The Cards have struggled here of late, but Wainwright is just the guy to get them back on track. The righty is having another Cy Young-caliber season, going 17-8 with a 2.18 ERA and 0.998 WHIP. I'll gladly fade John Lannan, who is 5-6 with a 5.23 ERA and 1.684 WHIP this season for Washington.

The Cards are 14-4 when facing Washington over the last 3 seasons. Wainwright is 3-1 with a 2.38 ERA in 5 career starts vs. Washington. The Nationals are 0-4 in Lannan's 4 career starts vs. St. Louis. Wainwright is 11-1 against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season since 1997, winning in this spot by 4.3 RPG. Bet the Cardinals Sunday.

25* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE YEAR on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 -115

After losing to the Pirates the last two days which led to a series loss to Pittsburgh, I'm taking the Cardinals to bounce back in a big way Thursday in Washington. Chris Carpenter has been a pretty safe bet all season for St. Louis. Carpenter is 14-4 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.150 WHIP this year. Carpenter is 6-1 with a 3.30 ERA in 11 career starts vs. Washington. Jordan Zimmerman makes his season debut tonight for Washington, and he's up against a Cards team that rocked him last year in his lone start against them. Zimmerman gave up 5 earned runs and 3 home runs over 5.2 innings of a 2-6 home loss to St. Louis on May 1st, 2009.

Few teams have owned the Nationals like the Cardinals have. St. Louis is 13-2 in 15 meetings with Washington over the last 3 years, winning eight of those contests by 2 runs or more. Washington is 0-4 in their last 4 games, getting outscored 5-24 in the process. So it's not like the Nationals are playing well right now, either. Carpenter is 16-2 against the money line in night games this season, with the Cards winning these games by 2.2 RPG. Carpenter is 55-14 against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season since 1997, with his teams winning by 2.1 RPG. Bet St. Louis on the Run Line Thursday.

15* on New York Yankees -1.5 -115

I'll take the Yankees to win on the Run Line Friday. Brian Bannister has been absolutely rocked in his career vs. New York. In 4 starts against the Yankees, Bannister is 1-2 with a 15.07 ERA and 2.931 WHIP. He has allowed 24 earned runs, 42 base runners and 6 home runs in 14.1 innings pitched. A.J. Burnett is a solid 2-2 with a 3.32 ERA in 6 career starts vs. Kansas City. Burnett has posted a 3.59 ERA at home this season and a 3.45 ERA over his last 3 starts. Bannister is 2-5 with a 7.04 ERA and 1.621 WHIP in 10 road starts in 2010.

The Yankees are 32-15 at home this season, hitting .288 and scoring 6.1 RPG. The Royals are 2-8 in their last 10 games, losing 7 times by 3 runs or more. The Yankees are 25-5 against the money line vs. an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season, winning by 2.9 RPG. K.C. is 20-46 against the money line with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 7.00 the last 5 games over the last 3 seasons, losing by 2.3 RPG. Bannister is 13-33 against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons, losing by 2.1 RPG. The Yankees are 61-21 against the money line as a favorite of -175 to -250 over the last 2 seasons, winning by 2.1 RPG. Take the Yankees on the Run Line Friday.

20* AL Saturday Night ANNIHILATOR on Texas Rangers -1.5 -160

After losing the first 2 games of this series, I'll take the Rangers to get Game 3 by 2 runs or more and avoid getting swept at home by the lowly Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles are the worst team in baseball at 27-59. The Rangers will have a packed house tonight as they welcome Cliff Lee, who was just traded to Texas and will be making his first start for them. Lee is 8-3 with a 2.34 ERA and 0.945 WHIP, pitching better than ever. He's 3-0 with a 1.73 ERA and 1.077 WHIP over his last 3 starts.

Lee is also 4-0 with a 2.38 ERA and 1.147 WHIP in 5 career starts vs. Baltimore. His teams have won those 4 games by 4, 5, 5, and 9 runs. Chris Tillman faced the Rangers once last season, allowing 5 earned runs in 6 innings in a 1-5 loss. Tillman is 0-3 with an 8.40 ERA and 2.200 WHIP in 4 starts this season. Lee is 21-6 against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. His teams are winning in this spot by 2.7 RPG. Baltimore is 12-41 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. They are losing by 2.4 RPG in this spot. Roll with the Rangers on the Run Line Saturday.

20* AL Tuesday Night ANNIHILATOR on Texas Rangers -1.5 -115

This is a great spot to back the Rangers knowing that they'll come in highly motivated to beat the Indians after losing 2 straight and 4 of their last 5. Texas has a huge edge on the mound with C.J. Wilson over Justin Masterson. Wilson is 6-4 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.261 WHIP this season through 16 starts. Wilson is 5-1 at home with a 3.72 ERA, and the Rangers have won 7 of his 9 home starts this year with 5 of those wins coming by 2 runs or more. Justin Masterson is 3-7 with a 4.85 ERA and 1.563 WHIP this season. He's been terrible on the road, going 1-4 with a 6.05 ERA and 1.824 WHIP and the Indians have lost 6 of his 8 road starts. In fact, all six of those losses have come by 2 runs or more.

Cleveland has several of their best players down with injury, including Asdrubal Cabrera, Grady Sizemore, Shin-Soo Choo and Matt LaPorta. Only 3 times all season have the Rangers went on more than a 2-game losing streak, so this has been a very resilient bunch. Texas is 14-3 against the money line in home games revenging a home loss vs opponent of 6 runs or more over the last 3 seasons, winning by 2.6 RPG in this spot. The Rangers are 18-5 against the money line in home games after a loss by 6 runs or more over the last 3 seasons, coming back to win by 2.2 RPG in this spot. Masterson is 4-16 against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons, losing by 2.4 RPG on average. The Indians are 0-7 in Mastersons last 7 road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. The Rangers are 7-1 in Wilson's last 8 starts as a home favorite. Bet Texas Tuesday.

25* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE MONTH on Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -119

The Phillies come into this game hungry after blowing a 3-run lead late to the Reds yesterday to lose 3-4. I have them winning this game by multiple runs tonight over the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates. Cole Hamels is 6-6 with a 4.08 ERA this season, and he's 1-0 with a 3.79 ERA and 1.263 WHIP in three career starts vs. Pittsburgh. The Phillies are 3-0 in those 3 games, outscoring the Pirates 20-11 in the process. Daniel McCutchen gets the start for Pittsburgh, and he's 0-3 with an 11.00 ERA and 1.944 WHIP this season. McCutchen has allowed 22 earned runs and 35 base runners in 18 innings pitched this year.

The Pirates are 28-74 against the money line after 2 or more consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons, losing by 2.2 RPG. Pittsburgh is 7-31 against the money line when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) over the last 2 seasons, losing by 2.4 RPG. Finally, the Pirates are 7-26 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season, losing by 3.1 RPG. So they have been getting blown out by good teams this year, and the Phillies classify as one of those teams. Roll with the Phillies on the Run Line Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Early ANNIHILATOR on New York Yankees -1.5 -151

After opening this series with 2 straight losses to the Mariners, the Yankees will get payback in blowout fashion Thursday. Seattle got wins from both Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez, outscoring New York 14-4 the past two days. But now that their Aces have gone, Seattle is in trouble. Ryan Rowland-Smith is 1-7 with a 6.18 ERA and 1.701 WHIP in 13 starts and 3 relief appearances this season. Smith has allowed 55 runs (46 earned), 114 base runners and 15 home runs in 67 innings while striking out just 29 batters this year. He has also faced the Yankees twice in his career, with his team losing by 2 and 3 runs, respectively.

C.C. Sabathia is 9-3 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.154 WHIP this season for New York, including 5-0 wiht a 2.57 ERA and 0.918 WHIP in 7 home starts. Sabathia has been untouchable of late, going 2-0 in his last 2 starts while allowing just 1 earned run and 13 base runners in 16 innings. The lefty is 7-4 with a 2.97 ERA in 15 career starts vs. Seattle. In his last 2 starts vs. the Mariners, Sabathia is 2-0 while allowing just 1 earned run and 11 base runners in 15 innings. Both of those starts came last season in 10-1 and 11-1 victories for the Yankees. Sabathia is 103-37 against the money line vs. teams outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season since 1997, with his teams winning by 1.9 RPG in this spot. The Mariners are 0-7 in Rowland-Smith's last 7 starts as a road underdog. The Yankees are 14-3 in Sabathia's last 17 home starts. Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Thursday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 -130

This game has blowout written all over it with a huge edge on the mound in favor of the Cardinals. Adam Wainwright is 10-5 with a 2.47 ERA and 1.018 WHIP this season. He has been untouchable at home, going 7-0 with a 1.67 ERA and 0.852 WHIP while allowing just 35 hits and 1 home run in 54 innings through 7 starts. The Cardinals have won 6 of his 7 home starts by 2 runs or more. Dontrelle Willis cannot get over his control issues for Arizona as the lefty has now walked 4 or more batters in 5 straight games. Willis is 2-2 with a 4.68 ERA and 1.811 WHIP this season.

Willis is 1-3 with a 5.53 ERA and 1.626 WHIP in 5 career starts vs. St. Louis. Wainwright is 3-2 with a 2.59 ERA in 5 career starts vs. Arizona. The Cards are 24-12 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 1.4 RPG. Arizona is 12-29 on the road this year, getting outscored by 1.7 RPG. Wainwright is a perfect 12-0 against the money line vs. teams outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The Cards are winning these games by an average of 5.6 RPG. Not only do the Cards have a huge edge at starter, but their bullpen is far better than Arizona's. St. Louis' relievers have posted a 2.83 ERA at home, while the Diamondbacks 'pen sports a 7.48 ERA on the road. Roll with the Cardinals on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 +107

No team enjoys being on the losing end of a no-hitter, and for the third time in less than a year, the Rays look to bounce back from being no-hit as they continue a home set with the Arizona Diamondbacks on Saturday. So expect the Rays to be highly motivated in this one. Tampa Bay has to like their chances of getting back on track with David Price (10-3, 2.45 ERA) taking the mound in hopes of becoming the AL's first 11-game winner. Price is 4-1 with a 1.94 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in six home starts this season to boot.

Ian kennedy is just 2-4 with a 4.50 ERA on the road. Kennedy is a former Yankee, and he did not fare well against Tampa there while going 1-2 with a 6.64 ERA in four starts vs. the Rays. The Diamondbacks are 11-27 on the road this season, getting outscored by an average of 1.7 RPG. Price is 13-2 against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons, with the Rays winning these games by 2.1 RPG. I love Tampa's chances of winning this game by 2 runs or more. Bet the Rays on the Run Line.

15* on Texas Rangers -1.5 -123

The Rangers 11-game winning streak came to an end yesterday, but I fully expect Texas to start a new one in blowout fashion Saturday. The Rangers have won 8 of their last 10 meetings with Houston, with 5 of those wins coming by 2 runs or more. C.J. Wilson is 5-3 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.238 WHIP this season, and the Rangers are 4-0 in his last 4 starts. The Rangers are also 8-1 in his last 9 starts vs. a team with a losing record, and 8-0 in his last 8 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.

Texas is 26-12 at home this season, hitting .303 while scoring 6.1 RPG and outscoring their foes by 1.8 RPG. Houston is 13-21 on the road, hitting .231 while putting up 3.4 RPG and getting outscored by 1.8 RPG. Texas is 32-11 against the money line at home when the total is 10 to 10.5 over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by 2.4 RPG. The Rangers are 35-13 against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season, winning by 2.0 RPG. Roll with the Rangers on the Run Line.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 -114

Chris Carpenter and the Cardinals should not no problem putting the Oakland A's away by 2 runs or more tonight. Carpenter is 7-1 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.120 WHIP in 14 starts this season, 5-1 with a 2.16 ERA at home, and 1-0 with a 1.71 ERA in his last 3 starts. This Cy Young candidate has picked up right where he left off last season, and the Cardinals offense is finally getting healthy so they should provide him with plenty of run support tonight. That's especially the case because they are facing Vin Mazzaro, who sports a 4.81 ERA and 1.687 WHIP this season in 24.1 innings between starting and coming out of the bullpen.

Mazzaro has already given up 6 home runs in just over 24 innings, along with 31 hits and 10 walks. He served up 2 long balls in a 2-6 loss at San Francisco in his last start. The A's are just 12-22 on the road this season, scoring 3.8 RPG. Carpenter is 38-9 against the money line as a favorite of -175 to -250 since 1997, winning by 2.4 RPG. The Cardinals are 27-4 in Carpenter's last 31 starts as a home favorite of -201 or greater. So they have won 87% of the time in this spot, and instead of laying the -250 on the Money Line, I'll take St. Louis on the Run Line showing much better value Friday.

20* MLB Monday Interleague No-Brainer on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 -132

After losing 6 of their last 7 games, including 5 road losses, a return trip home with Ace Adam Wainwright on the mound is just what the doctor ordered for St. Louis tonight. Wainwright is 8-4 with a 2.30 ERA and 1.021 WHIP this season, including a perfect 5-0 at home with a 1.62 ERA and 0.846 WHIP. Not only are the Cardinals 5-0 in Wainwright's 5 home starts this season, but they have won all 5 games by 2 runs or more. Luke French makes his first start of the season for the Mariners. The lefty is off to a rough start in his career, going 4-5 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.68 WHIP with opposing batters hitting .317 against him.

Seattle is 3-17 against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher this season, losing by 2.8 RPG in this spot. Wainwright is 23-7 against the money line after a loss over the last 3 seasons, winning by 2.4 RPG. The Cards are very hungry and motivated right now after their worst stretch of the season, and Wainwright is the perfect guy to get them back on track. St. Louis wins by 2 runs or more for a 6th straight time in Wainwright's sixth home start of the year. Roll with the Cardinals on the Run Line.

20* Reds/Cardinals ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on St. Louis -1.5 +112

The St. Louis Cardinals now sit 1 game behind the Reds in the NL Central after their 8-9 loss last night to Cincinnati. With Ace Chris Carpenter on the mound Wednesday, I fully expect him to shut down this Reds' line-up and for Cardinals' hitters to pound rookie Sam LeCure. The Cardinals lost 2 out of 3 in Cincinnati earlier this month, and they would love to return the favor by taking 2 out of 3 in this series. Carpenter is 6-1 with a 2.93 ERA this season, and the Reds are 9-2 in his 11 starts. Carpenter is 4-1 with a 2.36 ERA at home.

Carpenter is 9-3 with a 2.03 ERA and 0.834 WHIP in 15 career starts vs. Cincinnati. The Cardinals are 7-0 (100%) in Carpenter's last 7 starts vs. Cincinnati, winning all 7 games by 2 runs or more, including 5 wins by 5 or more runs. Carpenter is 14-1 (93%) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 3 seasons, winning by 3.7 RPG. Carpenter is 37-9 (80%) against the money line as a favorite of -175 to -250 since 1997, winning by 2.5 RPG. Roll with the Cardinals on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* on Boston Red Sox -1.5 -140

Jon Lester has been virtually un-hittable of late, and against the Royals. Lester is 5-2 with a 3.15 ERA this season, including 2-0 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.909 WHIP in his last 3 starts. In his last 2 starts, Lester has allowed 1 earned run in 15 innings while striking out 18. Those two games resulted in a 6-2 win over the Twins and a 2-0 shutout of the Rays. Lester is 3-1 with a 1.20 ERA and 0.733 WHIP in 4 career starts vs. Kansas City. In his last 2 starts vs. the Royals, Lester has pitched 17 shutout innings while striking out 17 and allowing just 8 base runners. That included a no-hitter back in 2008. Lester is 16-0 against the money line as a favorite of -200 or more since 1997, winning by an average of 4.1 RPG.

This is Game 4 of this series with the Royals winning 2 of the first 3, and Boston does not want to let Kansas City win this series to put a halt to all the momentum they have built up over the last few weeks. The Red Sox were 8-1 in their last 9 games coming into this series with wins over the Yankees, Twins, Phillies and Rays. Boston is playing their best baseball of the season right now and Lester will come in and shut down the Royals again to keep it going. Bruce Chen makes his first start of the season for the Royals, who is 2-4 with a 5.35 ERA and 1.727 WHIP in seven career starts vs. Boston. Take the Red Sox on the Run Line.

15* on New York Yankees -1.5 -137

The Yankees have to be pissed off heading into this one after blowing a 10-4 lead to the Indians yesterday. A line drive by Alex Rodriquez hit Indians' starter David Huff in the head early in that game, and Huff was carted off the field which put a halt to the Yankees' momentum. Give Cleveland credit for coming back to win that game, but I expect to see a more focused and determined Yankees' team Sunday. The Yankees are 25-4 against the money line in home games when playing on Sunday over the last 3 seasons, winning by 2.8 RPG on average.

Fading Indians' starter Justin Masterson has proven to be a very profitable move this season. Masterson is 0-5 with a 6.13 ERA and 1.894 WHIP in 9 starts this season, and the Indians have lost 7 of his 9 starts by 2 runs or more. That includes 3 straight losses by 4 runs or more to the likes of the White Sox, Royals and Orioles, three of the worst teams in the league. Yankees' starter A.J. Burnett is 5-2 with a 3.55 ERA this season, and he has been superb at home going 2-1 with a 2.60 ERA. The Yankees are 12-0 against the money line vs. an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season, winning by 7.6 to 3.6 on average. Masterson is 1-15 against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons, losing by 3.8 RPG. Roll with the Yankees on the Run Line Sunday.

15* on Atlanta Braves -1.5 +129

Though Pittsburgh is far from the best team in the league, few starters have dominated the Pirates like Derek Lowe has. Lowe is 8-0 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.123 WHIP in 8 career starts vs. Pittsburgh. Of those 8 wins, his team has won by 2 runs or more 6 times. Pirates' starter Zach Duke has allowed 6 earned runs in 2 of his last 3 starts vs. Atlanta. Duke is 2-2 with a 5.87 ERA and 1.652 WHIP in four road starts this season.

Pittsburgh is 4-25 against the money line as a road underdog of +150 to +175 over the last 2 seasons, getting outscored by 3.9 RPG. Duke is 6-25 against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 since 1997, and the Pirates are getting outscored by 2.0 RPG. The Pirates are 4-24 against the money line in road games vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better over the last 2 seasons, losing by 2.7 RPG. The Braves have the edge in every phase of this game. Atlanta's bullpen sports a 2.48 ERA at home while the Pirates' bullpen has posted a 4.70 ERA on the road. The Pirates are scoring just 3.4 RPG on the road this season while the Braves are scoring 5.3 RPG at home. Pittsburgh is scoring 2.0 RPG over their last 7 games and getting outscored by 2.7 RPG in the process. Roll with the Braves on the Run Line to win this game by at least 2 runs.

15* on Oakland A's +1.5 -145

In what is sure to be a low-scoring pitcher's duel Tuesday, I'll take the A's on the Run Line to get the extra insurance run. Seattle's Felix Hernandez has proven to be very human of late, going 0-2 with a 7.98 ERA and 1.910 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Hernandez has allowed 13 earned runs and 28 base runners in 14.2 innings with his last 3 outings. Ben Sheets has been rock solid at home this season, going 2-1 with a 2.31 ERA in four starts.

Seattle is just 6-14 on the road this season, hitting .231 and scoring 3.3 RPG. With the Mariners' lack of run production, I'm very confident in either an A's win or an A's loss by 1 run in this game. Oakland is 14-7 at home this season, hitting .270 and scoring a respectable 4.5 RPG. Another factor here is the bullpens. Oakland's relievers have combined for a 2.86 ERA at home this year, while Seattle's relievers have posted a 4.80 ERA away from home. For what small advantage the Mariners may have on the starting mound tonight, the A's certainly make up for it with their run production and their bullpen. Plus, Hernandez is just 3-10 against the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) over the last 2 seasons, and he has really struggled of late. The Athletics are 27-11 in their last 38 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Roll with Oakland on the Run Line.

15* on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 -110

Huge advantage on the mound tonight for the Cardinals. Ace Chris Carpenter gets the ball, and he's 4-1 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.075 WHIP through 8 starts this season. Carpenter has been deadly at home, going 3-1 with a 1.93 ERA and 0.964 WHIP. He also owns a 5-1 career mark vs. Washington. Nationals' starter John Lannan is 1-2 with a 651 ERA and 1.955 WHIP through 7 starts this season. He has allowed 27 earned runs and 73 base runners in 37.1 innings. His 22-13 walk-to-strikeout ratio is one of the worst in the league.

Carpenter is 14-1 against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 3 seasons. The Cardinals are winning by 3.7 RPG in this situation. Lannan is 7-25 against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 since 1997. The Nationals are losing by 1.7 RPG in this spot. Lannan is 1-12 against the money line in road games vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 3 seasons, losing by 2.1 RPG. Carpenter is 51-13 against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season since 1997, winning by 2.1 RPG. St. Louis is 12-2 in 14 meetings with Washington over the last 3 seasons, including a perfect 7-0 at home. They are winning their home meetings by an average of 3.0 RPG. Take St. Louis on the Run Line.

15* Run Line on Houston Astros +1.5 -120

In what should be a great pitcher's duel between veteran Roy Oswalt and youngster Tim Lincecum, I expect a closely-contested game throughout thus I'm backing the Astros on the Run Line. Oswalt is out to prove that he can hang with the two-time NL CY Young winner in this one. The Wizard just keeps on tickin' as Oswalt has posted a 2.62 ERA and 1.104 WHIP this season. Of Oswalt's 7 starts this season, 5 of them have been decided by 1 run. The other two were decided by 2 and 3 runs, so he has given his team a chance to win in every start. No opponent has scored more than 5 runs in any of Oswalt's 7 starts this season.

Oswalt is 15-3 against the money line against NL West opponents over the last 2 seasons. The Astros are winning these games by an average of 2.8 RPG. I'm not taking the money line in this game though you can feel free to do so, as I feel that this game is decided by 1 run or the Astros win outright. I'll take the insurance run. Bet the Astros.

15* on Houston Astros +1.5 -133

In what should be a very tight ball game Wednesday between the Astros and Cardinals, we'll take Houston on the Run Line to stay within one run or win this game against St. Louis. We have the edge on the mound with Wandy Rodriquez and his 4.59 ERA up against Kyle Lohse and his 5.45 ERA. Lohse remains winless this season for St. Louis. Some people automatically assume that the Cardinals have a great line-up because of Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday. But that couldn't be further from the truth. St. Louis is scoring just 4.4 RPG overall and 4.1 RPG against lefty starters. The Cardinals are scoring just 3.0 RPG over their last 7 games and they have scored 4 runs or less in 6 of those 7 contests.

Houston is finally starting to get healthy and as a result they are playing much better of late, winning back-to-back games. The Astros are 63-34 against the money line after batting .200 or worse over a 5 game span since 1997. Lohse is 10-18 against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. Houston is 45-21 against the money line in road games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 since 1997. Take the Astros on the Run Line.

15* on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 -129

Few starters have dominated a team like Chris Carpenter has dominated the Pittsburgh Pirates. Carpenter is 11-1 with a 2.27 ERA and 0.913 WHIP in 13 starts against Pittsburgh in his career. His team is 12-1 in those 13 starts and the Cardinals have won 9 of those 13 games by at least 2 runs. Coming off losing 3 straight games to the Phillies, Carpenter and St. Louis will have no problem getting up for this game against the Pirates. Carpenter is 4-0 with a 2.84 ERA thi sseason as well. He is up against Zach Duke who has gone 0-3 with a 10.80 ERA and 2.333 WHIP in his last 3 starts for Pittsburgh. Duke has allowed 18 earned runs and 35 base runners in just 15 innings in his last 3 outings.

Carpenter is 13-1 against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. His team is winning by an average of 3.8 RPG in this spot. Carpenter is 50-12 against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season since 1997. His teams are winning by 2.2 RPG in this spot. Roll with the Cardinals on the Run Line.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 -117

After a rare loss to the Kansas City Royals last night, look for the Tampa Bay Rays to bounce back in blowout fashion Saturday.  The Rays are 15-5 against the Royals over the last 3 years, winning 12 of those games by 2 runs or more.  Tampa Bay has been winning by at least 2 runs quite frequently this season.  The Rays are 17-6 and have won 14 of those contests by at least 2 runs.

Tampa Bay is 14-3 against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season.  They are winning in these spots by an average of 4.5 RPG.  Plus, David Price is in a groove this season, going 3-1 with a 2.20 ERA.  He is coming off a complete game shutout win 6-0 over the Toronto Blue Jays in his last outing.  Bet the Rays on the Run Line.

15* on Atlanta Braves -1.5 +113

The Braves' 9-game losing streak ends emphatically at home tonight as they beat the Houston Astros by multiple runs.  The Braves will be happy to return home tonight after a dreadful 7-game road stand against the Mets and Cardinals.  Atlanta takes on an Astros' team that is scoring a mere 2.5 RPG on the road this season.  Tommy Hanson is the Braves' best starter with a 2.14 ERA through 4 starts.  Hanson pitched 8 shutout innings against the Astros last year in his only career start against them.

This play falls under a system that is 30-10 (75%) over the last 5 seasons.  It tells us to bet on home teams (ATLANTA) - after having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games, in April games.  The home team has been ouscoring their opposition by 1.6 RPG in this spot.  Take Atlanta on the Run Line.

15* on Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 -120

In what will be a pitcher's duel, I like the Blue Jays on the Run Line Thursday. Then again, if Felix Hernandez gives up 7 earned runs like he did the last time he faced Toronto, this one will be over by the end of the 5th inning. Ricky Romero has stepped onto the scene nicely this season for Toronto, posting a 12-9 record with a 4.28 ERA. Hernandez has given up 7 and 6 earned runs in 2 of his last 3 starts against Toronto. This is one team he struggles against, and these Blue Jays' hitters are stepping to the plate with confidence right now after putting up 22 runs in their last 3 games. Seattle has scored 4 or less runs in 7 of their last 8 games. This Seattle lineup is one of the worst in the league, and that's a big reason why the Blue Jays are the right play on the Run Line Thursday. Seattle is 49-71 against the money line with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games over the last 2 seasons. The Mariners are 6-21 against the money line in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.00 to 4.70 over the last 2 seasons, losing by 2.0 runs per game. Bet Toronto on the Run Line.

15* on Philadelphia Phillies -1.5

Take the Phillies on the run line with Cole Hamels finally pitching like he was expected to. Hamels hasn't allowed a run in two straight starts and his ERA over his last 3 starts is just 1.64. The Astros counter Hamels with Bud Norris, a guy with just 6 starts under his belt this year. Norris has been knocked around in nearly all of his starts, but his last three have been especially bad, earning him 3 straight losses while posting a 13.11 ERA and 2.40 WHIP over that stretch. The Phillies dropped the first two games of this series, but they are clearly the better hitting team in this match up with a much better starter on the mound.

15* on LA Dodgers -1.5 +101

Take the Dodgers on the run line tonight with Arizona starter Billy Buckner struggling as much as any pitcher in the Majors right now. Over his last three starts, Buckner is 0-3 with a 12.79 ERA and 2.13 WHIP. Offensively the Dodgers already have a huge edge, so when you throw in a struggling starter for Arizona you get a solid run line play for Thursday night in LA.

15* on Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 +127

Back the Phillies tonight over the Braves with Cliff Lee on the mound. Lee has been incredible since joining the Phillies. He's now 12-9 on the season with a 2.62 ERA, and has gone 3-0 over his last 3 starts with a 0.37 ERA and 0.71 WHIP. Meanwhile, Braves' starter, Derek Lowe has been inconsistent this season, particularly on the road, where he is 6-6 with a 5.11 ERA in 13 starts. Lowe is also just 1-1 with a 7.47 ERA and 2.04 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The Braves grabbed the first win of this 3-game series, but I like the Phillies to come back in a big way Saturday and win this one by 3 or more runs.

20* No Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -110

Take the Phillies on the run line over the Pirates on Thursday. Philadelphia starter, J.A. Happ has been outstanding in his 17 starts this season. He is 8-2 on the season with a 2.61 ERA and 1.93 WHIP. On the road he is 5-1 on the season with a 1.85 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, and in his last 3 starts he is 2-0 with a 1.74 ERA. He'll square off against the Pirates' Charlie Morton, who is 3-6 this season with a 5.21 ERA and 1.58 WHIP, including a 9.49 ERA and 2.27 WHIP over his last 3 starts. With big edges in pitching and offense tonight, jump on the Philly run line.

15* on Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -140

Take the Phillies on the run line at the Mets tonight with with J.A. Happ on the mound for Philadelphia. Happ has been incredible since joining the Phillies, going 9-2 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, including a 4-1 record with a 1.92 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 9 road starts. He'll be opposed tonight by the Mets' Tim Redding, who is just 1-3 in 9 starts this season with a 6.99 ERA and 1.57 WHIP (the Mets are 3-6 in his 9 starts). The Phillies have played extremely well on the road this season at 37-21 and have won 5 of their last 7, while the Mets have dropped 4 of their 7. New York stole game one of this series from Philly last night, but look for the Phillies to bounce back big over the Mets Saturday.

20* No Doubt Rout on Chicago White Sox -1.5 +110

Take the White Sox on the run line over the Orioles tonight. Baltimore is one of the worst teams in the American League on the road this season at 19-41, while the White Sox are fighting to keep pace with the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central to earn a playoff spot. I also like Gavid Floyd at home for the Sox this season. In 11 home starts, Floyds is 5-2 with a 2.38 ERA and 1.07 WHIP (the White Sox are 9-2 in those 11 starts). Meanwhile, Baltimore's Jeremy Guthrie has labored through his last 3 appearances, going 0-2 with a 7.64 ERA and 1.81 WHIP.

15* on San Diego Padres +1.5 (+107)

Take the Padres on the run line as the Cubs have not played well on the road this season. Chicago is just 25-35 in road games, and while the Padres aren't fantastic at home, they do have a winning record a 32-30. They also have a sharp young pitcher in Mat Latos, who is 2-1 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 3 home starts this season. Cubs starter Rich Harden has thrown well lately, but the Cubs are only 4-5 in his 9 road starts on the year.

20* No Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-130)

The Rays are heavy favorites tonight, but with good reason. David Price has been incredible for Tampa at home this season, notching a 5-1 record with a 2.71 ERA in 7 starts. The Orioles Jason Berken, on the other hand, is just 2-10 on the season, and a dismal 1-4 on the road this year with a 8.48 ERA. Offensively the Rays are one of the top teams in baseball, particularly at home where they average about 5.6 runs per game. The Orioles are awful on the road (18-39) and have struggled offensively against left-handed starters (like Price), hitting just .259 as a team and averaging only 4 runs per game against southpaws.

20* No Doubt Rout on San Francisco Giants -1.5 (+115)

I'm on the Giants run line today with Matt Cain squaring off against Aaron Harang. Cain is now 12-3 on the season with a 2.25 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, including a 6-1 record with a 1.98 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 11 starts at home. Harang has struggled this year, going just 5-13 with a 4.52 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, including a 1-7 record and 5.45 ERA in 11 road starts. The Giants have shown a boost in production on offense lately, averaging 5.6 runs per game over their last 7 games, and are now in the lead for the NL wildcard spot.

20* No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-115)

This is a game the Rays absolutely should win, and exactly the type of game they need to win to stay competitive in the AL Wildcard race. Sidney Ponson throws for the Royals tonight and this is a guy who is unreliable at best, particularly on the road. He's only thrown twice as the visitor this year, but in those games he has a 15.27 ERA and 2.87 WHIP. For the season, Ponson is 1-5 in 8 starts with a 5.68 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. On the other side of the diamond, the Rays throw David Price, who has been so-so for the most part, but who has thrown his best games at home this season. He is 3-1 on the year when throwing in Tampa with a 3.04 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Price will be aided by a Tampa Bay offense that out performs Kansas City in almost every category. The Rays hit .274 as a team at home this season, while scoring 5.6 runs per game, a huge reason why they have an impressive 31-17 home record. Meanwhile, the Royals see their batting average dip to .241 on the road and their runs per game drop to 3.5, which is probably why they are just 17-29 on the road this season. The moneyline is much to high, but the runline here is well worth the risk as the Rays should win this one handily.

15* on Baltimore Orioles -1.5 +135

Play on the Orioles over the Royals Thursday afternoon. Luke Hochevar has struggled for the Royals on the road this season posting a 6.75 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Meanwhile, Bradley Bergesen has been incredible for the Orioles, particularly when he pitches in Baltimore. So far he is 6-1 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 10 starts at home (the Orioles are 8-2 in all of his home starts). The Royals are now 17-28 on the road and are scoring just 3.5 runs per game in those games. The Orioles are now 27-23 in home games while posting 5.1 runs per game in Baltimore.

20* NO Doubt Rout Houston Astros -1.5 +140

It's hard not to love the 'Stros tonight with how poorly the Cardinals have been play, not to mention how well Astros' starter, Wandy Rodriguez has been pitching. Rodriguez is 4-2 this season in 9 home starts (the Astros are 7-2 in those starts) with a 2.21 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. He has been one of the hottest pitchers in baseball this month, earning a microscopic 0.41 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his last 3 starts, all Houston wins. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are hitting just .231 as a team and scoring just 3 runs per game over their last 7 overall, and have struggled against left-handed starters this season, averaging 3.5 runs per game and hitting only .242. The Cards throw Todd Wellemeyer, and he's not helping their case. Wellemeyer has been very hittable this season, going 7-7 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.69 WHIP so far.

20* No Doubt Rout on LA Dodgers -1.5 +105

Back the Dodgers on the runline as they dominate in almost every aspect of this game. Clayton Kershaw has really come into his own for LA this season, posting a 7-5 record with a 3.16 ERA. He's also sporting a 1.85 ERA in 9 home starts and is 2-0 with a 0.53 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in his last three starts. The Dodgers are also hitting at an impressive clip as of late, scoring 5.4 runs per game and batting near .280 as a team. The Astros have been hitting uncharacteristically well over the past week, but this is a spot where Kershaw will shut them down and the Dodgers will turn their offense on high.

20* No Doubt Rout on Chicago White Sox -1.5

Take the White Sox on the runline over the Orioles tonight with John Danks throwing for Chicago. Danks is 7-6 on the year with a 3.91 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, including a 3.33 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 8 home starts this season, and a 1.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 2-0 record over his three most recent starts. Meanwhile, Jason Berken has been a disaster as a starter for Balitmore this season. He's 1-6 over 9 starts with a 5.87 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. Those numbers skyrocket when he pitches on the road, his ERA jumping to 9.49 and his WHIP reaching 1.95 over those three starts. The Sox have been hitting great as a team lately, averaging 6.4 runs per game and hitting .296 as a team over the last 7 days, while the Orioles have been ice-cold on offense, managing to post 4.4 runs per game, but only hitting .225 as a team. Expect the White Sox to come out very strong behind Danks in their first game back from the All-Star Break.

20* No Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -1.5 +110

This should be an easy win for the Orioles over the Nationals the way that Jeremy Guthrie has been pitching for Baltimore. Over his last three starts, Guthrie has a 3.26 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. Compare that to the Nationals' starter, Shairon Martis, who has struggle this season, particularly on the road where he has a 6.53 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP. Baltimore opened up this series last night with an easy 11-1 victory. We can expect similar results tonight. Take the runline as the moneyline is a little steep.

20* No-Brainer on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 +121

I'm taking the Cardinals over the Rockies on Friday night. St. Louis is fighting to stay on pace with the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central and they have one of their most consistent pitchers on the mound tonight in Adam Wainwright. Wainwright is 5-3 for the Cardinals on the season with a 3.37 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 11 starts. Jorge De La Rosa starts for the Rockies and he's hit a very rough patch over his last 3 starts. Over that span he is 0-3 with a 13.50 ERA and a 2.33 WHIP. The brings De La Rosa to 0-6 on the season and raises his overall ERA to 5.43. Add that to the fact that the Rockies are 12-18 on the road this year while the Cards are 19-11 and we have an easy play on St. Louis. Take the run line for a great value here.

15* Angels -1.5 +110

Jered Weaver has given up just 5 runs in 36.7 innings at home this year on 21 hits and 5 walks. Over his last three starts he has given up just 5 runs in 20 innings. Gavin Floyd on the other hand has allowed 28 runs in 27 innings on the road and 14 runs in his last 18 innings. The White Sox are scoring just 4.2 runs per game this year and 4.1 against right-handed starters. The Angels aren't hitting the ball extremely well right now but against Floyd tonight they should get enough across to support Weaver.

15* Mets -1.5 +110

I'll take the run line here with Johan Santana on the mound today against Jordan Zimmerman. Santana has given up just 3 ER in 33.3 innings at home this year and 6 ER in his last 20.3 innings of work. Zimmerman has given up 12 runs in 17.3 innings on the road this year and 12 runs in his last 18 innings. The Mets have won four out of their last five games with only one of those coming by a single run while the Nationals have dropped four of five. The Nationals are scoring 2.9 runs per game over their past seven so I don't see them lighting the scoreboard up against Santana and since the Mets get 5 runs across the plate per game at home, I think the run line is the safe bet.

20* MLB No-Brainer on Kansas City -1.5 +105

This is one of those games where I really don't know if I can do more than state the obvious. Greinke is 5-0 at home with a 0.73 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. He's given up just 2 runs in his last three starts, good for a 0.75 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. Carl Pavano is 2-3 on the road this year, but with a 6.03 ERA and 1.40 WHIP and in his last three starts he has a 4.67 ERA, but a high 1.56 WHIP. You know with Pavano out there Cleveland is going to have to get to the pen early and that bullpen has a 7.13 ERA on the road this year in 70.7 innings. KC on the other hand should see Greinke go deep which will leave it to a bullpen with a 2.99 ERA in 69.3 innings at home. I know the Royals bats aren't that great so taking the run line is risky, but they are putting up 5 runs per game over their last seven and 5.1 per game at home, so with Greinke on the hill it's worth the risk.

15* on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 -115

The Chicago White Sox have scored just 2.6 runs per game over their last seven and four runs per game against right-handed starters this season. Toronto has scored 6.2 runs per game against right-handed starters and 5.8 per game overall so the offensive advantage goes to the Blue Jays. The pitching matchup though is where the real advantage here is with Roy Halladay having given up just 5 ER in his last 25 innings. Gavin Floyd has been terrible this year with a 7.32 ERA and 1.88 WHIP, but in his last three starts he's been worse with a 9.56 ERA and 2.13 WHIP. Toronto is 14-5 the last three years against Chicago and today should go the Blue Jays way.

15* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 +125

Carl Pavano has put a string of three straight decent performances, but he still has given up 27 runs on 50 hits in 37.7 innings this year so I'm not sold he's turned the corner. Matt Garza on the other hand is making his case to become one of the elite starters in the American League, having given up just 5 ER on 12 hits in his last 22.7 innings. The Rays are putting up 6.9 runs per game over their last seven and 5.7 runs per game against right-handed starters. They came back and won in dramatic fashion last night and I see it being a little easier for them here tonight. With a high scoring game anticipated I feel safe with the run line to reduce the impact of the juice.

15* on Kansas City -1.5 -105


Last time Zach Greinke took the mound he lost 1-0 to Joe Saunders and the Angels, but count on some more support tonight at home. Greinke is 6-1 on the year with a 0.51 ERA and 0.79 WHIP and is 4-0 at home with a 0.60 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. Contrast that with Adam Eaton who has given up 10 runs in 9 innings on the road this year and comes in having given up 13 runs in his last 16 innings. The Royals offense has been struggling recently , but did manage five runs last night on 11 hits. They have had 10 or more hits now in three of their last four games, they just have to bring those guys home. I think they do and I'll take the nice value here with the run line.

20* MLB No-Brainer on Chicago Cubs -1.5 +131

Ryan Dempster is 6-1 with a 3.66 ERA in nine career starts against the Padres and he hasn't given up an earned run in his last three starts against them. He has only made two starts at home this year and his 4.15 ERA is a little deceiving since he's given up just 9 hits and one home run. The Padres have lost 10 straight on the road this year, and in their last eight losses only one has come by a single run. The Cubs have won three in a row and in their last 13 wins, none have come by only a single run. That makes the run line the play here this afternoon.

15* on LA Dodgers -1.5 +120

I like the Dodgers tonight to pick up the win at home. This team is missing Manny Ramirez, but don't expect the offense to slack too much without their star. Barry Zito is throwing tonight for the Giants, and while he has looked better lately, he will be facing the Dodgers for the third time already this season. He gave up six runs in five innings on April 16th in LA and three runs in 6.3 innings in San Francisco on April 27. Chad Billingsley is 2-0 with a 1.84 ERA in four starts against the Giants and he's 5-0 with a 2.21 ERA on the year. San Francisco's offense is just horrible, scoring 3.2 runs per game and hitting .229 against right-handed hitters so I'll take the run line.

20* MLB No-Brainer on LA Dodgers -1.5 +105

The Dodgers are a perfect 12-0 at home and have won 10 straight at Dodgers Stadium over the Nationals. Washington is 0-5 when Daniel Cabrera takes the hill this year and his last start was one of his worst, throwing four wild pitches and walking five batters. Clayton Kershaw will start for the Dodgers tonight and while he has struggled on the road, he has given up just 1 run (a home run) on five hits and three walks in 14 innings at home, also striking out 16 in that span. I'm playing the run line here since the Dodgers have won 8 of 12 by more than a run and are hitting .320 at Dodger Stadium.

20* MLB No-Brainer on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 -130

The Baltimore Orioles have gone just 3-11 since they sped out of the gates to a 6-2 record and will send Mark Hendrickson to the mound tonight against the Blue Jays. He's given up 20 hits, and six home runs over his last 13 innings for a 6.92 ERA. Roy Halladay has been the best pitcher in the majors over the last few years so you can't like that Baltimore is 0-9 this year when they score four or fewer runs. Halladay was hit hard by Texas, but other than that has looked great again this season, walking just four batters in 36 innings. With Toronto scoring nearly 6 runs per game and hitting close to .300 this year, playing the run line seems like the right move.