Winning Sports Picks

MLB Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
09-12-14	Chicago Cubs +1.5 v. Pittsburgh Pirates		3-7	Loss	-121	9 h 37 m	Show
15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs +1.5 (-121) I really do believe the Cubs will probably win outright today, but I'm going to take them on the run line for a little more insurance in a game that could easily be decided by one run either way. The Cubs will be motivated following six straight losses, and they have no problem playing the role of spoiler with all of their talented prospects seeing significant time down the stretch. Tsuyoshi Wada makes this a very solid play. There's no question he should be getting overlooked like he is here. Wada has gone 4-2 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in 10 starts this season for the Cubs. At the same time, Gerrit Cole is getting too much respect. He has gone 8-5 with a 3.89 ERA and 1.306 WHIP in 18 starts. Cole has gone 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA in his last three starts as well. The Pirates are in a tough spot here. It's almost always tough to return from a long road trip for that first home game because there are too many distractions around the household for these players. They return home from a 10-game trip here. Chicago is 45-25 against the run line (+16.4 Units) after two or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons. Plays on all underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+165 to -135) (CHICAGO CUBS) - with a team batting average of .250 or worse on the season (NL), after scoring 4 runs or less 6 straight games are 51-24 (68%, +23.8 units) over the last five seasons. Take the Cubs on the Run Line Friday.
09-10-14	Houston Astros +1.5 v. Seattle Mariners	Top	5-2	Win	100	11 h 7 m	Show
20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston Astros +1.5 (-101) The Houston Astros are showing tremendous value on the run line tonight. They have won seven of their last nine games overall, which pretty much coincided with the firing of manager Bo Porter. They have done so behind a team ERA of 2.04 during this stretch. Houston calls up rookie Nick Tropeano from Triple-A Oklahoma City to make his big league debut tonight. The right-hander went 9-5 with a 3.03 ERA over 23 minor league games. 20 of those were starts, and he struck out 120 over 124 2/3 innings. He'll have an advantage as the Mariners won't know what to expect. Seattle gives the ball to Hisashi Iwakuma, who is one of the better starters in the big leagues, but he appears to be wearing down over the stretch run. Indeed, Iwakuma has posted a 7.25 ERA and 1.464 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 11 runs and 20 base runners over 13 2/3 innings. He has given up exactly four earned runs in two of his last three starts against Houston. Houston is 44-23 against the run line (+16.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The Astros are 33-17 against the run line (+13.8 Units) off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog over the last two seasons. Houston is 66-39 against the run line (+21.7 Units) after three or more consecutive road games over the last two seasons. Bet the Astros on the Run Line Wednesday.
08-15-14	Los Angeles Angels -1.5 v. Texas Rangers	Top	5-4	Loss	-120	19 h 27 m	Show
20* AL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -1.5 (-120) The Los Angeles Angels (70-49) have the second-best record in baseball. They trail the Oakland A's by just two games for the AL West lead and will be laying it all on the line the rest of the way to go for it. They had a day off yesterday and not get to face the league-worst Texas Rangers (47-74), who did not have yesterday off and lost the Rays (6-3). Garrett Richards has been one of the most underrated starters in the league this season. The right-hander has gone 12-4 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.015 WHIP in 24 starts, including 7-2 with a 1.91 ERA and 0.909 WHIP in 13 road starts. Richards is 4-1 with a 3.21 ERA in nine career starts against Texas. He has allowed one earned run over 13 innings in his last two starts against the Rangers this season. Nick Martinez is easily one of the worst starters in baseball. The right-hander has gone 2-8 with a 5.22 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in 15 starts and eight relief appearances this season. Martinez has been at his worst at home, going 0-4 with a monstrous 10.18 ERA and 2.361 WHIP in five starts. The Angels are 7-0 in their last seven meetings with the Rangers with six of those victories coming by two runs or more. The Rangers are 0-9 against the run line (-11.8 Units) in home games vs. a starting pitcher who throws more than 6.5 innings per start this season. Texas is 0-9 against the run line (-11.4 Units) in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better this season. These three trends combine for a perfect 25-0 system backing Los Angeles. Bet the Angels on the Run Line Friday.
08-05-14	Los Angeles Angels +1.5 v. Los Angeles Dodgers		4-5	Win	100	11 h 23 m	Show
15* Angels/Dodgers MLB Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Angels +1.5 (-111) The Los Angeles Angels are showing tremendous value on the run line today against the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers are clearly overvalued here due to having Clayton Kershaw on the mound, and we'll take advantage. Hector Santiago is having a fine season for the Angels and he's not getting the respect he deserves here. The right-hander has posted a 3.76 ERA and 1.253 WHIP over 79 innings pitched this year. He is 1-0 with a 2.20 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in his last three starts. Kershaw is having another dominant campaign, but he has struggled recently against the Angels. He is 1-2 with a 4.57 ERA in his last three starts against the Angels, giving up 11 earned runs, three homers and 25 base runners over 21 2/3 innings. The Dodgers are 0-9 against the run line (-12.2 Units) vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.00 to 4.70 over the last two seasons. Kershaw is 5-15 against the run line (-11.5 Units) in home games in night games over the last two seasons. Take the Angels on the Run Line Tuesday.
07-31-14	Atlanta Braves +1.5 v. Los Angeles Dodgers		1-2	Win	100	12 h 51 m	Show
15* Braves/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Atlanta +1.5 (-125) The Atlanta Braves will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep tonight after losing the first two games of this series to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Both teams will be sending their aces to the mound in this one, and I look for this contest to have a high probability of being decided by one run either way, which is why I'm siding with the run line. Julio Teheran is having an All-Star year, going 10-6 with a 2.71 ERA and 1.045 WHIP over 22 starts. Sure, Clayton Kershaw has been even more dominant, but he is getting too much respect from the books here as a -200 favorite on the money line. Kershaw is 1-0 in six career starts against Atlanta, only earning one decision. Almost every game that he has started against the Braves has gone right down to the wire. In fact, four of the six games were decided by exactly one run with the Dodgers winning two and the Braves winning two. Kershaw is 9-23 against the run line (-14.7 Units) in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last three seasons. Atlanta is 350-164 against the run line (+71.9 Units) as a road underdog when the run line price is -190 to +165 since 1997. Kershaw is 26-54 against the run line (-28.8 Units) in home games in night games for his career. Take the Braves on the run line.
07-28-14	Oakland A's -1.5 v. Houston Astros	Top	3-7	Loss	-118	7 h 19 m	Show
20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Oakland A's -1.5 (-118) The Oakland A's are a good bet almost every time you take them. You save juice on the run line, which has been a very profitable move of late for the best team in baseball. The A's have won four of their last five all by two-plus runs to get to 65-39 on the season. Now, they play one of the worst teams in baseball in the Houston Astros (42-63) for the start of a new series Monday. The Astros have lost five straight all by two-plus runs. I look for that streak to extend to six straight tonight in Game 1 of this series. Jesse Chavez has been one of the better starters in the game this season. He has gone 8-6 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.288 WHIP over 20 starts this year, including 2-1 with a 2.60 ERA in his last three. Chavez is 2-0 with a 3.78 ERA in three career starts against Houston. The A's have won all three of his starts against the Astros all by two-plus runs. Brett Oberholtzer is one of the worst starters in the game. He has gone 2-7 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.416 WHIP over 13 starts this season. He is 1-3 with a 5.08 ERA and 1.515 WHIP over six home starts this year. Oberholtzer is 0-2 with a 4.03 ERA and 1.567 WHIP over four career starts against Oakland. Houston is 5-17 against the run line (-14.4 Units) vs. AL teams allowing 3.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. It is losing by an average of 4.1 runs/game in this spot. The A's are 8-0 in Chavez's last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the A's on the Run Line Monday.
07-27-14	Oakland A's -1.5 v. Texas Rangers	Top	9-3	Win	100	8 h 43 m	Show
20* AL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Oakland A's -1.5 (-123) The Oakland A's get the call on the -1.5 run line Sunday against the lowly Texas Rangers. This is the best team in baseball, and they not only have a huge edge at the plate, but also on the mound tonight. Scott Kazmir has gone 11-3 with a 2.32 ERA and 0.989 WHIP over 20 starts this season. The left-hander continues to kill it, going 2-0 with a 0.86 ERA and 0.810 in his last three starts. Miles Mikolas has had a rough go of it in the big leagues this year. He has gone 1-2 with a 7.48 ERA and 1.524 WHIP over four starts. Mikolas has been at his worst at home, going 0-2 with a 13.00 ERA and 2.444 WHIP in two starts. Kazmir is 31-8 (+15.2 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more since 1997. Texas is 1-9 against the run line (-10.7 Units) vs. AL teams allowing 4.2 or less runs/game in the second half of the season this season. Kazmir is 6-0 against the run line (+6.8 Units) in road games after a win this season. Kazmir is 15-4 against the run line (+14.4 Units) in games played on a grass field this season. Bet the A's on the Run Line Sunday.
07-22-14	Washington Nationals -1.5 v. Colorado Rockies	Top	7-4	Win	100	10 h 34 m	Show
20* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -1.5 (-105) The Washington Nationals are in a battle with the Atlanta Braves for first place in the NL East. They have won three straight and five of their last six to pull one game ahead of the Braves. They are really hitting on all cylinders right now. The Colorado Rockies are tied with the Texas Rangers for the worst record in baseball at 40-59. They have lost six in a row and really seem to have packed it in. Guys aren't willing to play through injury right now. They are without Troy Tulowitzki, Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer, and they could be without fellow starters Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon tonight, who are both listed as questionable. Jordan Zimmerman takes the ball for the Nationals. The right-hander is having another brilliant season, going 6-5 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.212 WHIP over 19 starts. Zimmerman is a perfect 5-0 with a 1.64 ERA and 1.182 WHIP in seven career starts against Colorado. Yohan Flande is off to a rough start in limited action for the Rockies. The left-hander is 0-2 with a 7.37 ERA and 1.705 WHIP in three starts this season, yielding 12 earned runs and 25 base runners over 14 2/3 innings. One of those starts came against Washington on June 30 as he allowed three runs over 5 1/3 innings of a 3-7 loss. Colorado is 23-43 against the run line (-26.3 Units) in July games over the last three seasons. Zimmerman is 14-2 (+11.4 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The Nationals are winning 5.9 to 2.1 on average in this spot. Bet the Nationals on the Run Line Tuesday.
06-02-14	Chicago White Sox +1.5 v. Los Angeles Dodgers	Top	2-5	Loss	-128	11 h 48 m	Show
20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago White Sox +1.5 (-128) While it's rare, I do like taking big road underdogs on the run line just for that extra run of insurance. A big percentage of games are decided by one run, and I believe there is a good chance that the White Sox either beat the Dodgers outright or lose by a run tonight. This is a much more evenly-matched game on the mound than the line would indicate. Jose Quintana never gets the respect he deserves, going 3-4 with a 3.61 ERA and 1.262 WHIP in 11 starts this season. The left-hander pitched eight shutout innings in his lone career starts against Los Angeles. Clayton Kershaw has been solid this year, but not as sharp as he has in the past. The left-hander is 3-2 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.217 WHIP in six starts this season, including 1-2 with a 6.13 ERA and 1.431 WHIP in his last three starts. Kershaw is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in two career starts against Chicago. The White Sox have the edge at the plate in this one. They have gone 9-7 against southpaws this year while hitting .271 and scoring 5.1 runs per game in those 16 contests. The Dodgers are 6-7 against left-handers while hitting .221 and scoring a measly 3.0 runs in those 13 games. Plays against all favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+100 to -190) (LA DODGERS) - cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games against opponent with an on base percentage of .285 or worse over their last five games are 34-10 (77.3%, +25 units) over the last five seasons. Kershaw is 3-12 against the run line (-10.0 Units) in home games in night games over the last two seasons. Kershaw is 6-18 against the run line (-12.6 Units) as a home favorite when the run line price is -120 to +115 over the last three seasons. Bet the White Sox on the Run Line Monday.
05-23-14	Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 v. Philadelphia Phillies	Top	2-0	Win	101	8 h 11 m	Show
20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+101) The Los Angeles Dodgers should not have a problem winning this game by 2-plus runs Friday given the massive edge they have on the mound. I look for Clayton Kershaw to shut down the Phillies, and for the Dodgers' offense to light up Roberto Hernandez. While the former Cy Young winner has struggled a bit in the early going, there's no question he's still one of the top starters in the game, if not the best starter. Kershaw has gone 2-1 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in four starts this season. The left-hander went 16-9 with a 1.83 ERA and 0.915 WHIP in 2013. He also went 14-9 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.023 WHIP in 2012, and 21-5 with a 2.28 ERA and 0.977 WHIP in 2011. Roberto Hernandez has been one of the worst starters in baseball for a couple years now. He went 7-15 with a 5.25 ERA and 1.405 WHIP in 2011, 0-3 with a 7.53 ERA and 1.395 WHIP in 2012, and 6-13 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.338 WHIP in 2013. Hernandez is currently 2-1 with a 3.98 ERA and 1.475 WHIP in 2014 as well. The Dodgers are 8-1 in Kershaw's last 9 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Dodgers are 23-7 in Kershaw's last 30 starts during game 1 of a series. The Phillies are 1-5 in their last 6 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The Phillies are 7-19 in their last 26 games as an underdog of +151 to +200. Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Friday.
04-25-14	Oakland A's -1.5 v. Houston Astros		12-5	Win	100	10 h 5 m	Show
15* MLB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oakland A's -1.5 (-117) The Oakland A's are not going to take the Houston Astros lightly considering they were swept last series by the Texas Rangers. That was evident in Game 1 of this series as the A's rolled to a 10-1 victory. I expect a similar beat down in Game 2. Oakland has been the most underrated team in baseball over the last couple years. That has been the case again in 2014 as many picked the Rangers and Angels to finish ahead of them. They are tied with the Rangers for 1st place in the division at 14-8, which includes an 8-2 mark on the road where they are scoring 5.8 runs per game. Once again, it appears like the Houston Astros are the worst team in baseball. At 7-16, this team is on pace for a 4th consecutive 100-loss season. The Astros have lost nine of their last 11 games overall, and seven of those losses have come by two runs or more, which is a big reason why we're backing the A's on the run line in this one. Jesse Chavez has been brilliant through four starts, going 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 0.923 WHIP while striking out 28 batters in 26 innings. He beat today's scheduled starter Brad Peacock 4-1 on April 20 just five days ago. Peacock is 0-2 with a 6.14 ERA and 1.905 WHIP through 14 2/3 innings this season. Plays against home underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-130 to +110) (HOUSTON) - horrible offensive team - scoring <=3.7 runs/game on the season (AL), after a loss by 6 runs or more are 30-9 (76.9%, +21.1 units) since 1997. Houston is 2-11 against the run line (-9.9 Units) vs. AL teams allowing 3.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last two seasons. Oakland is 28-11 against the run line (+18.0 Units) after a game where they had 6 or more extra base hits over the last three seasons. The A's are 41-17 against the run line (+26.4 Units) after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last three seasons. Bet the A's on the Run Line Friday.
09-01-13	San Diego Padres +1.5 v. Los Angeles Dodgers		1-2	Win	100	9 h 19 m	Show
15* NL Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on San Diego Padres +1.5 (-104) The San Diego Padres will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep to the Los Angeles Dodgers Sunday after losing the first two games of this series. I like their chances of doing so today, but I'll side with them on the run line for a little extra insurance. There's a great chance this game is decided by exactly one run either way with the quality of these two starting pitchers. Tyson Ross is 3-4 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.127 WHIP in 10 starts this season, while Zach Greinke is 13-3 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.165 WHIP in 22 starts. Ross has been at his best on the road this season, going 3-2 with a 2.27 ERA and 1.149 WHIP in six starts away from home. Ross has posted a 1.93 ERA in his one career start against Los Angeles, which resulted in a 7-2 San Diego victory earlier this season. This play falls into a system that is 75-46 (62%, +31.4 Units) since 1997. It tells us to bet on all underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+110 to +155) (SAN DIEGO) - with a team on base percentage .310 or worse on the season (NL) against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts. Take the Padres on the Run Line Sunday.
08-14-13	Seattle Mariners v. Tampa Bay Rays -1.5	Top	4-5	Loss	-125	9 h 55 m	Show
25* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE YEAR on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-125) The Tampa Bay Rays have lost six straight games to fall four games behind the Boston Red Sox for first place in the AL East. Needless to say, they'll be highly motivated for a victory tonight as they welcome the Seattle Mariners. Ace David Price gets the ball tonight looking to keep up his tremendous work of late. Price is 6-5 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in 17 starts this year, including 1-0 with a 0.77 ERA and 0.643 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing two earned runs and 15 base runners over 23 1/3 innings. I'll gladly fade Aaron Harang, who is 5-10 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.315 WHIP In 19 starts this season. Harang has been beaten up in his last two starts, allowing 14 earned runs, four homers and 17 base runners in seven innings of work. Price is a perfect 9-0 against the run line (+10.3 Units) when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Rays on the Run Line Wednesday.
08-03-13	San Francisco Giants +1.5 v. Tampa Bay Rays		1-2	Win	101	10 h 55 m	Show
15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on San Francisco Giants +1.5 (+101) The San Francisco Giants get the nod Saturday against the Tampa Bay Rays. While I believe the Giants will win this game, I'm going to back them on the Run Line as an underdog still for some insurance. San Francisco has quietly won three straight coming in. Tim Lincecum has lit it up in two of his last three starts, allowing two earned runs over 16 innings. David Price is simply getting too much respect from the books in this one. The left-hander is just 1-4 with a 4.18 ERA in seven home starts this season. San Francisco is 20-5 against the run line (+13.7 Units) in road games vs. good fielding teams - averaging <=0.6 errors/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Giants are 40-16 against the run line (+21.9 Units) vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better since 1997. San Francisco is 30-12 against the run line (+19.4 Units) as an underdog when the run line price is +100 or higher since 1997. The Giants are 28-11 against the run line (+17.8 Units) as a road underdog when the run line price is +100 or higher since 1997. Roll with San Francisco on the Run Line Saturday.
07-23-13	Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 v. St. Louis Cardinals		1-4	Loss	-110	9 h 37 m	Show
15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 (-110) The Philadelphia Phillies are showing excellent value on the run line Tuesday at nearly even money. While I believe the Phillies have an excellent chance to win this game, I'll take the extra run for some insurance for the right price. Jonathan Pettibone has been one of the most underrated starters in the league this season. The right-hander has gone 5-3 with a 3.89 ERA in 16 starts, and the Phillies are 10-6 (+5.9 units) in those outings. Pettibone is also 2-0 with a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts. Rookie Shelby Miller got off to a tremendous start in the first half of the season for St. Louis, but he's already showing signs of wearing down. Miller is 1-1 with a 7.10 ERA and 1.973 WHIP in his last three starts. Philadelphia is 39-17 against the run line (+22.5 Units) in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 3 seasons. St. Louis is 3-17 against the run line (-14.1 Units) when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Phillies are 16-5 against the run line (+11.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses this season. Take Philadelphia on the Run Line Tuesday.
07-09-13	Houston Astros +1.5 v. St. Louis Cardinals		5-9	Loss	-100	9 h 30 m	Show
15* NL Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Astros +1.5 (+110) The Houston Astros are showing excellent value Tuesday as an underdog even on the run line against the St. Louis Cardinals. I'll gladly take advantage and back them in a game I believe they could win outright, but I'll take the extra run for some insurance. Bud Norris isn't getting the respect he deserves from oddsmakers in this one. The right-hander has gone 6-7 with a 3.22 ERA in 18 starts this season, including 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA in his last three starts. What I really like about Norris is the fact that he has had a ton of success against St. Louis in the past. In fact, Norris is 8-5 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.143 WHIP in 15 career starts against the Cardinals. The Astros are 10-5 in those 15 contests while gaining $1,000/game bettors $12,200. This play falls into a system that is 51-14 (78.5%) against the Run Line over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+135 to -190) (ST LOUIS) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season (NL), with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last 10 games. Take the Astros on the Run Line Tuesday.
07-02-13	Milwaukee Brewers v. Washington Nationals -1.5		4-0	Loss	-109	9 h 37 m	Show
15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington Nationals -1.5 (-109) The Washington Nationals get the call Tuesday on the Run Line as they stay red hot at the plate. They have scored a combined 23 runs over the past two days, and they just got Bryce Harper back in the line-up on Monday. Ace Stephen Strasburg will shut down the struggling Milwaukee Brewers, who have lost six straight while scoring a mere 2.7 runs/game in the process, and they remain without Ryan Braun. Strasburg has gone 4-6 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.039 WHIP in 15 starts this season, including 3-3 with a 1.34 ERA and 0.851 WHIP in seven home starts. Milwaukee's Wily Peralta is simply no match for Strasburg. Peralta has gone 5-9 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.609 WHIP in 17 starts this season to rank as one of the worst starters in baseball in 2013. He is also 0-1 with a 10.11 ERA and 3.371 WHIP in one career start against Washington. The Brewers are 6-20 in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Milwaukee is 15-40 in its last 55 games as a road underdog. The Brewers are 3-12 in their last 15 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Milwaukee is 0-5 in Peralta's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Nationals are 9-1 in their last 10 games as a favorite of -201 or greater. Roll with Washington Tuesday.
07-01-13	San Francisco Giants v. Cincinnati Reds -7		1-8	Push	0	11 h 16 m	Show
15* Giants/Reds ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Cincinnati -1.5 (+128) The Cincinnati Reds should have no problem winning by 2-plus runs tonight over the San Francisco Giants. After losing seven of their last nine games overall, the Reds are highly motivated for a victory. I believe they get it tonight do to their edge on the mound. Bronson Arroyo remains one of the most underrated starters in the league. He has gone 6-6 with a 3.61 ERA and 1.213 WHIP in 16 starts, including 5-1 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.156 WHIP in 10 home starts this season. Arroyo has posted a 2.67 ERA in 12 career starts against San Francisco as well. Mike Kickham is no more than a spot starter for San Francisco. If he keeps pitching like he has been, he won't last in the rotation for very long. Kickham has gone 0-2 with a 10.57 ERA and 2.089 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing 9 earned runs, 16 base runners and 3 homers over 7 2/3 innings. The Giants are 1-6 in their last 7 games overall while scoring just 2.4 runs/game in the process. San Francisco is 7-19 in its last 26 road games. The Reds are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Cincinnati is 62-29 in its last 91 vs. a team with a losing record. The Reds are 8-0 in Arroyo's last 8 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Roll with the Reds on the Run Line Monday.
07-01-13	Milwaukee Brewers v. Washington Nationals -1.5		5-10	Win	115	12 h 31 m	Show
15* MLB Monday Mound Mismatch on Washington Nationals -1.5 (+115) The Washington Nationals will get Bryce Harper back from the DL Monday night after missing the entire month of June. Meanwhile, Milwaukee remains without its best hitter in Ryan Braun. Washington will roll tonight due to its edge on the mound and at the plate. Jordan Zimmerman has been nothing short of spectacular this season, going 11-3 with a 2.28 ERA and 0.916 WHIP in 16 starts. Zimmerman has been untouchable at home, going 8-0 with a 1.09 ERA and 0.833 WHIP in nine starts. Yovani Gallardo has gone 6-7 with a 4.20 ERA and 1.388 WHIP in 17 starts this season. While Gallardo is 3-2 with a 5.13 ERA and 1.413 WHIP in seven career starts against Washington, Zimmerman is 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA and 0.947 WHIP In two career starts against Milwaukee. Zimmerman is 18-5 (+12.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. The Nationals are winning by 2.4 runs/game in this spot. Zimmerman is 14-1 (+13.1 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 to 7.5 over the last 2 seasons. Washington is winning by 2.8 runs/game in this spot. Washington is 9-0 in Zimmerman's 9 home starts this season. Take the Nationals on the Run Line Monday.
06-26-13	San Francisco Giants v. Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5		2-4	Win	133	11 h 57 m	Show
15* NL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+133) The Los Angeles Dodgers will win by 2-plus runs tonight and sweep the NL West-rival San Francisco Giants. With the edge they have on the mound in this one, and with a healthy return of Matt Kemp to one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball, winning by 2-plus won't be a problem. Clayton Kershaw has pitched like the former NL Cy Young winner he is this season. The left-hander has gone 5-5 with a 2.06 ERA and 0.989 WHIP through 16 starts this season, including 4-3 with a 1.52 ERA and 0.954 WHIP In nine home starts. Kershaw is 9-4 with a miniscule 1.29 ERA and 0.835 WHIP in 18 career starts against San Francisco. In his last two home starts against the Giants, Kershaw has allowed one earned run over 17 innings with the Dodgers winning those games by finals of 4-0 and 5-1, respectively. In fact, Kershaw has only allowed 9 earned runs over 78 1/3 innings in his last 10 starts against the Giants for a 1.03 ERA. Tim Lincecum is not pitching like the former NL Cy Young winner that he is, and he hasn't over the last few seasons. The right-hander has gone 4-7 with a 4.52 ERA and 1.394 WHIP in 15 starts this year, including 1-4 with a 5.02 ERA and 1.726 WHIP in seven road starts. Lincecum is 0-7 (-8.5 Units) against the money line after a loss this season. The Giants are losing by 3.9 runs/game in this spot. San Francisco is 1-8 (-8.3 Units) against the money line after a one run loss this season. It is losing by 3.0 runs/game in this spot. Take the Dodgers on the Run Line Wednesday.
06-18-13	Baltimore Orioles v. Detroit Tigers -1.5		5-2	Loss	-102	8 h 36 m	Show
15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -1.5 (-102) The Detroit Tigers should have no problem making easy work of the Baltimore Orioles tonight. I fully expect them to win by two-plus runs given the edge they have on the mound in this one. Justin Verlander has gone 8-4 with a 3.41 ERA in 14 starts this season with 101 strikeouts over 87 innings. He is coming off his best start of the season, pitching seven shutout innings while allowing just five base runners to the Kansas City Royals on June 12th. "For me, it was my best start, just because of the way I've been working to get back where I need to be," Verlander told the team's official website. "I feel like I've been getting better every start. I wasn't exactly where I want to be, but pretty doggone close." Verlander is 8-0 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.093 WHIP in 12 career starts against Baltimore. The Tigers have gone 11-1 in those 12 contests, winning 10 times by two runs or more in the process. That's a 10-2 (83%) run line system in favor of the Tigers heading into this one. The Tigers are 29-6 in Verlanders last 35 starts as a favorite of -201 or greater. Detroit is 47-14 in Verlander's last 61 home starts. Zach Britton gave up six earned runs and 12 base runners over 6 innings of a a 2-6 loss at Seattle on April 29 in his lone start of the season for Baltimore. Roll with the Tigers on the Run Line Tuesday.
06-05-13	San Diego: J Marquis v. Los Angeles: C Kershaw -1.5		6-2	Loss	-100	11 h 44 m	Show
15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+109) The Los Angeles Dodgers will beat the San Diego Padres by 2-plus runs tonight. As a result, I'll back them on the Run Line and look to earn more bang for our buck. The Dodgers have a massive edge on the mound in this one with Clayton Kershaw over Jason Marquis. The former Cy Young winner has gone 5-3 with a 1.85 ERA and 0.916 WHIP through 12 starts this season. Marquis is 6-2 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.492 WHIP through 11 starts this season for the Padres. Kershaw is 8-4 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.205 WHIP in 18 career starts against San Diego. Kershaw is 17-2 (+13.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) over the last 3 seasons. The Dodgers are winning in this spot by 2.6 runs/game. Take the Dodgers on the Run Line Wednesday.
05-29-13	Toronto Blue Jays v. Atlanta Braves -1.5		3-0	Loss	-100	8 h 35 m	Show
15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+125) The Atlanta Braves will throttle the Toronto Blue Jays by two-plus runs Wednesday due to the massive edge they have on the mound. That's why I have elected to play the Run Line and get us some more value for our buck. Kris Medlen has been one of the most underrated starters in the league over the past two seasons. He has picked up right where he left off last year, posting a 3.16 ERA over 10 starts in 2013. In fact, Medlen sports a 2.08 ERA and 1.192 WHIP through four home starts this season. Esmil Rogers is no more than a spot starter in this league. He has posted a 4.56 ERA and 1.479 WHIP over 25 2/3 innings out of the bullpen for Toronto this year. He will be making his first start of the season tonight. Rogers has faced the Braves once in his career, giving up 7 earned runs over 1 2/3 innings for a massive 37.72 ERA. Atlanta is 25-6 (+18.7 Units) against the money line after a one run win over the last 2 seasons. It is winning by 2.7 runs/game in this spot. Medlen is 13-0 (+13.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. The Braves are winning by a whopping 3.9 runs/game in this spot. Take the Braves on the Run Line Wednesday.
05-22-13	Kansas City Royals -1.5 v. Houston Astros		1-3	Loss	-120	9 h 34 m	Show
15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas City Royals -1.5 (-120) The Kansas City Royals are looking to get back on track in this series with the lowly Houston Astros. They had lost four straight after a Game 1 loss, but they bounced back with a 7-3 victory last night. I like the Royals' chances of a two-plus run triumph once again tonight given the massive edge they have on the mound. James Shields looks to continue his dominance while outdueling Jordan Lyles. Shields has posted a 2.45 ERA and a 0.955 WHIP through nine starts this season, including a 1.50 ERA and 0.792 WHIP in his last three. Lyles has gone 1-1 with a 6.63 ERA and 1.737 WHIP in four starts, including 1-1 with an 8.36 ERA and 1.929 WHIP in three home starts. Houston is 25-86 (-38.9 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +150 or more over the last 2 seasons. It is losing by 2.4 runs/game in this spot. Lyles is 9-32 (-17.5 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last 3 seasons. He is losing by 2.5 runs/game in this spot. Bet the Royals on the Run Line Wednesday.
05-22-13	Detroit: Verlander -1.5 v. Cleveland: U Jimenez		11-7	Win	119	7 h 19 m	Show
15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -1.5 (+119) Justin Verlander just lost to Ubaldo Jimenez and the Cleveland Indians on May 11th at home by a final of 6-7. I look for Verlander to come back extra motivated tonight to get revenge on Jimenez and company. Verlander has gone 4-4 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.296 WHIP through nine starts this season. Jimenez has gone 3-2 with a 5.31 ERA in eight starts, including 1-2 with a 9.72 ERA in four home starts. Jimenez is also 5-7 with a 5.12 ERA in 14 career starts against Detroit. Detroit is 45-28 against the run line (+20.9 Units) after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons. I look for Verlander to match Max Scherzer's gem last night en route to a 5-1 Detroit victory. Take the Tigers on the Run Line Wednesday.
05-16-13	Seattle Mariners v. New York Yankees -1.5		3-2	Loss	-100	8 h 27 m	Show
15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (+126) After getting embarrassed 12-2 by the Seattle Mariners last night, I look for the New York Yankees to bounce back with a blowout victory of their own in Game 3 of this series Thursday. With the huge edge they have on the mound, the Yankees won't have a problem winning by two-plus runs tonight. The ageless Andy Pettite continues to get it done in the big leagues. The left-hander has gone 4-2 with a 3.83 ERA and 1.276 WHIP through seven starts in 2013. New York hitters are licking their chops at the opportunity to face Aaron Harang tonight. The right-hander is 1-4 with a 7.30 ERA through five starts this season, including 0-2 with an 8.43 ERA in two road starts. Pettite is 68-22 (+30.5 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -200 since 1997. His teams are winning 6.2 to 3.8 in this spot, or by an average of 2.4 runs/game. Roll with the Yankees on the Run Line Thursday.
05-11-13	Cleveland Indians v. Detroit Tigers -1.5		7-6	Loss	-104	13 h 20 m	Show
15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Tigers -1.5 (-104) The Detroit Tigers will have no problem winning by two-plus runs Saturday given the edge they have on the mound in this one. I fully expect you to be counting your chips by the end of the 5th inning ladies and gents. Detroit gives the ball to 2011 AL Cy Young & AL MVP winner, Justin Verlander Saturday. The right-hander continues to be arguably the best starter in the league this season, going 4-2 with a 1.55 ERA and 1.101 WHIP through seven starts, including 2-0 with a 0.86 ERA and 0.952 WHIP in his last three. Ubaldo Jimenez has been atrocious once again in 2012 as he continues to prove that he was one of the worst trades in Cleveland history. The right-hander is 2-2 with a 6.37 ERA and 1.314 WHIP through six starts this season for the Indians. Jimenez is 4-7 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.526 WHIP in 13 career starts against the Tigers. In his last two starts at Detroit, Jimenez has given up 10 earned runs over 12 2/3 innings in 1-7 and 1-6 losses, respectively. Verlander is a perfect 13-0 (+13.0 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons. The Tigers are winning in this spot 4.8 to 1.7, or by an average of 3.1 runs/game. Bet Detroit on the Run Line Saturday.
05-11-13	Toronto Blue Jays v. Boston Red Sox -1.5		3-2	Loss	-100	9 h 41 m	Show
15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+100) Clay Buchholz is out to send a message to Toronto Saturday. It was Blue Jays broadcaster Jack Morris last week that accused Buchholz of throwing a spitball, which certainly hurt the pitcher's reputation. That came after Buchholz pitched 7 shutout innings of a 10-1 victory over Mark Buehrle and the Blue Jays. That dominant start was nothing new for the right-hander, who has simply been mowing down the competition this season. Buchholz is 6-0 with a 1.60 ERA and 1.026 WHIP in seven starts this season. The Red Sox are 7-0 in those games, winning five by 2 runs or more. Buchholz improved to 9-4 with a 2.36 ERA and 1.127 WHIP in 15 career starts against the Blue Jays. Mark Buehrle is simply washed up and stands no chance of keeping Toronto competitive in this one. The left-hander is 1-2 with a 7.03 ERA and 1.561 WHIP in seven starts this season. Buehrle is 7-9 with a 4.75 ERA and 1.454 WHIP in 20 career starts against Boston. Boston is 13-2 (+11.4 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season. It is winning by 2.8 runs/game in this spot. Buchholz is 18-3 (+13.1 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. Boston is winning by 2.6 runs/game in this situation. Bet the Red Sox on the Run Line Saturday.
04-30-13	Houston Astros v. New York Yankees -1.5		4-7	Win	100	8 h 56 m	Show
15* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (-129) After getting embarrassed by the Houston Astros in a 9-1 home loss in Game 1 of this series, I fully expect the New York Yankees to bounce back with a blowout victory in Game 2 tonight. Given the edge they have on the mound in this one, you'll be counting your chips by the end of the 5th inning folks. Houston's Philip Humber is simply atrocious, going 0-5 with a 7.98 ERA and 1.817 WHIP through five starts this season. New York's Hiroki Kuroda is one of the most underrated starters in the league, going 3-1 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.035 WHIP through five starts this season to pick up right where he left off last year. Kuroda is 3-0 with a 1.61 ERA and 0.985 WHIP In seven career starts against Houston. Houston is 10-41 (-20.9 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +175 to +250 over the last 2 seasons. It is losing by 2.7 runs/game in this spot. Humber is 0-9 (-9.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. His teams are losing by a whopping 5.8 runs/game in this spot. Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Tuesday.
04-30-13	Minnesota Twins v. Detroit Tigers -1.5		1-6	Win	100	8 h 56 m	Show
15* AL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Tigers -1.5 (-115) I'll side with the 2011 AL Cy Young and 2011 AL MVP winner, Justin Verlander, to hand the Minnesota Twins a multi-run loss tonight. Given how he has fared in his most recent starts against Minnesota, it's easy to see why I'm backing the Tigers on the Run Line tonight. Verlander is 7-0 with a 1.22 ERA in his last seven starts against the Twins dating back to 2010. Detroit has won ALL SEVEN of those games by 2 or more runs. Enough said. Take the Tigers on the Run Line Tuesday.
09-28-12	Colorado Rockies v. Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5		0-8	Win	100	11 h 3 m	Show
15* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-123) The Los Angeles Dodgers have won two straight to get within three games of the St. Louis Cardinals for the final wild-card spot in the National League. They have scored a combined 16 runs over the past two days, and I look for them to stay hot at the plate tonight in Game 1 of this series with Colorado. Ace Clayton Kershaw won't need much run support to win this game by 2 runs or more. The 2011 NL Cy Young winner has been dominant once again in 2012. He is 12-9 with a 2.68 ERA and 1.039 WHIP in 31 starts, 7-5 with a 2.25 ERA in 17 home starts, and he has posted a 0.95 ERA in his last three outings. Colorado's Jeff Francis is no match for Kershaw. The left-hander is 5-6 with a 5.54 ERA and 1.481 WHIP in 22 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.583 WHIP in his last three. Kershaw is 15-2 against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) over the last 2 seasons. The Dodgers are winning by an average of 2.3 runs/game in this spot. Take the Dodgers on the Run Line Friday.
09-26-12	St. Louis Cardinals v. Houston Astros +1.5		0-2	Win	110	8 h 9 m	Show
15* NL Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Astros +1.5 (+110) I know the Houston Astros own the worst record in baseball. However, I fully expect them to try and play the role of spoiler tonight against St. Louis. I like their chances of staying within one run or winning the game outright with Bud Norris on the mound. Norris has been spectacular at home, going 3-1 with a 1.90 ERA and 1.040 WHIP with 75 strikeouts over 66 1/3 innings in 10 home starts this year. He also has St. Louis' number, going 7-5 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.216 WHIP in 14 career starts against the Cardinals. Chris Carpenter just recently returned from the disabled list after missing all of the season up to this point. He wants to try and help the Cardinals down the stretch and into the postseason, but he's simply cannot be his old self just yet. Carpenter lasted just five innings of a 4-5 loss to Chicago on September 21st in his 2012 debut. St. Louis is 1-7 after 4 or more consecutive wins this season. Carpenter is 1-8 against the money line as a favorite of -175 to -250 over the last 2 seasons, and the Cards are losing in this spot 2.6 to 4.6 on average. Carpenter is 0-6 against the money line after 3 or more consecutive team wins over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the Astros on the Run Line Wednesday.
09-25-12	Seattle Mariners v. Los Angeles Angels -1.5	Top	4-5	Loss	-105	10 h 6 m	Show
20* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -1.5 (-105) The Los Angeles Angels (84-69) have won three straight and seven of 10 to pull within two games over the Oakland A's for the AL's final wild-card spot. Six of those seven victories have come by 2 runs or more, and I fully expect Los Angeles to win by multiple runs in Game 1 of this series against Seattle (72-81) Tuesday. Zach Greinke gets the ball for the Angels, and he's 14-5 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.185 WHIP in 32 starts this season. The right-hander is 7-2 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.014 WHIP in 14 home starts, and 1-0 with a 1.54 ERA and 0.772 ERA in his last three outings. Greinke is 4-1 with a 1.97 ERA and 0.875 WHIP in nine career starts against Seattle. This guy loves facing the Mariners, and he has been unstoppable at home, which you will see with the following trends. Greinke is 27-4 against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons, and his teams are winning by 2.3 runs/game in this spot. Greinke is 17-1 against the money line at home when the total is 7 to 7.5 over the last 2 seasons, and his teams are winning by 2.7 runs/game in this situation. Greinke is 17-0 against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons, and his teams have won by 3.1 runs/game on average. Bet the Angels on the Run Line Tuesday.
09-24-12	St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 v. Houston Astros		6-1	Win	100	8 h 55 m	Show
15* NL Monday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (-124) The St. Louis Cardinals sit 2.5 games ahead of the Milwaukee Brewers for the final wild-card spot in the National League. They want to clinch that spot as soon as possible, and they'll have an excellent chance of doing that starting with Game 1 of this series against the lowly Houston Astros. St. Louis (82-71) is closing out strong against this season, just as it did last year en route to winning the World Series. The Cardinals have won six of their last seven games overall. Houston (50-103) owns the worst record in baseball and I'll gladly fade the Astros here Monday. The Cards have a huge edge on the mound behind Lance Lynn, who is 16-7 with a 3.79 ERA this season, including 2-0 with a 0.73 ERA in his last two starts. Lynn has allowed just one earned runs over 12 1/3 innings in those two outings. He is 3-0 with a 1.56 ERA in three career starts against Houston, and the Cards have won by finals of 9-2, 14-2 and 5-0 in those three contests. Fernando Abad is one of the worst starters in baseball. He has gone 0-5 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.682 WHIP in five starts and 30 relief appearances. In those five starts, Abad is 0-5 with a 6.53 ERA and 1.982 WHIP. In two home starts, he's 0-2 with an 8.22 ERA and 2.350 WHIP. Lynn is 12-1 against the money line against division opponents this season, and the Cards are winning by an average of 4.1 runs/game in this spot. Houston is 7-37 against the money line as an underdog of +175 to +250 this season, losing by an average of 3.2 runs/game. Take the Cardinals on the Run Line Monday.
09-24-12	Kansas City Royals v. Detroit Tigers -1.5		2-6	Win	100	7 h 55 m	Show
15* AL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Tigers -1.5 (-115) After losing two games of a double-header against Minnesota yesterday, the Tigers now find themselves one game behind the Chicago White Sox for the AL Central lead with 10 games to play. With ace Justin Verlander on the mound tonight, I have them bouncing back to win by multiple runs over the Kansas City Royals in Game 1 of this series. Verlander, the 2011 AL Cy Young and AL MVP winner, won't let his team down with what's at stake. The right-hander is 15-8 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.061 WHIP in 31 starts this season, including 8-2 with a 1.60 ERA and 0.928 WHIP in 14 home starts. Verlander is 14-2 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.118 WHIP in 22 career starts against Kansas City. He'll be opposed by Luke Hochevar, who is one of the worst starters in the league. The right-hander is 8-14 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.373 WHIP in 30 starts this season. Hochevar is 4-5 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.652 WHIP in 11 career starts against Detroit. In his lone start against the Tigers this season, Hochevar gave up nine earned runs and 15 base runners over four innings of a 3-9 loss at Detroit on May 1st. Verlander is 20-3 against the money line in home games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons, and the Tigers are winning by 3.0 runs/game in this spot. Roll with Detroit on the Run Line Monday.
09-19-12	Houston Astros v. St. Louis Cardinals -1.5		0-5	Win	101	10 h 37 m	Show
15* NL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+101) The St. Louis Cardinals should have no problem disposing of the lowly Houston Astros by 2 runs or more tonight. St. Louis has a lot to play for right now as it sits just 1.5 games ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers for the final wild-card spot in the National League. At 48-100 on the season, the Astros have nothing to play for. I'll gladly back Lance Lynn tonight. The right-hander has been at his best at home, going 6-3 with a 3.38 ERA in 10 starts this season. Lynn is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in two career starts against Houston with the Cardinals winning by finals of 14-2 and 9-2 in those two outings. Lucas Harrell has been at his worst on the road for Houston, going 4-7 with a 5.06 ERA in 17 starts away from home this season. Harrell has posted a 6.61 ERA and 1.715 WHIP in three career starts against the Cardinals. In his lone start at St. Louis, the left-hander gave up six runs and 11 base runners over five innings of a 0-7 loss on August 21st. Lynn is 11-1 against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse this season, and the Cardinals are winning 5.8 to 2.9 in this spot, or by an average of 2.9 runs/game. Take the Cardinals on the Run Line Wednesday.
09-07-12	Miami: J Turner v. Washington: Strasburg -1.5		9-7	Loss	-121	7 h 15 m	Show
15* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -1.5 (-121) Stephen Strasburg knows he's going to get shut down after two more starts. That's why he will be throwing everything he has at Miami tonight in his second-to-last start. I have the Nationals winning this game by two-plus runs Friday. Strasburg is 15-6 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.119 WHIP over 27 starts with 195 strikeouts in 156 1/3 innings. He is also 4-2 with a 2.38 ERA and 1.059 WHIP in eight career starts against the Marlins. He'll be opposed by Jacob Turner, who is 1-3 with a 7.33 ERA and 1.457 WHIP over five starts this season. Turner is also 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA in one career start against Washington. The Nationals are rolling right now, winning five straight games heading into this one. They have scored a combined 29 runs in their last three contests, so they are feeling really good at the plate. Roll with Washington Friday.
08-06-12	New York Yankees +1.5 v. Detroit Tigers	Top	2-7	Loss	-128	8 h 45 m	Show
25* AL Run Line GAME OF THE YEAR on New York Yankees +1.5 (-128) The New York Yankees are showing awesome value on the run line tonight against the Detroit Tigers. I'll take the extra run at a great price on the team with the best record in baseball. New York is 63-44 on the season. Ivan Nova has been at his best on the road this year for the Yankees. The right-hander is 7-1 with a 3.32 ERA in 12 road starts this season, and the Yankees are 10-2 in those contests. Justin Verlander is one of the league's best, but he has struggled of late. The right-hander is 0-2 with a 5.25 ERA over his last two starts, yielding nine runs, seven earned, and 20 base runners over 12 innings. Verlander is 5-4 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.524 WHIP in 15 career starts against New York. This play falls into a system that is 41-10 (80.4%) against the run line since 1997. It tells us to bet on all underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+165 to -135) (NY YANKEES) - after allowing 3 runs or less 3 straight games against opponent after scoring 8 runs or more. Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Monday.
07-07-12	Minnesota Twins v. Texas Rangers -1.5	Top	3-4	Loss	-100	9 h 41 m	Show
20* AL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -1.5 (+115) The Texas Rangers have lost five straight for the first time in over a year. The two-time defending AL champs will be highly motivated tonight to put an end to this skid, and I believe they do in blowout fashion. The Rangers haven't lost six in a row since April 15-21, 2010. Derek Holland makes his return from the disabled list, so he'll be fresh and ready to go tonight. In his last two home starts against the Twins, Holland has going 2-0 with a 0.79 ERA while allowing one earned run over 11 1/3 innings. The Rangers won those two games 20-6 and 11-1. Minnesota picked a tough spot to give Sam Deduno his first career starts. He'll be up against arguably the best line-up in baseball. Texas is hitting .286 and scoring 5.5 runs/game at home this season, while the Twins are hitting .234 and scoring 3.9 runs/game on the road. Texas is 23-5 revenging a loss where the team scored 1 run or less over the last 2 seasons, winning in this spot by 2.7 runs/game. The Rangers are 21-4 in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons, winning in this spot 6.2 to 3.6 on average. The Twins are 3-17 in road games when playing on Saturday over the last 2 seasons, losing 2.9 to 6.2 on average. Bet the Rangers on the Run Line Saturday.
07-04-12	Minnesota Twins v. Detroit Tigers -1.5	Top	1-5	Win	100	11 h 6 m	Show
25* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit Tigers -1.5 (-120) After dropping the first two games of this series to the Minnesota Twins, the Detroit Tigers will be highly motivated for a victory tonight in Game 3. They'll get that win in blowout fashion behind 2011 AL Cy Young and 2011 AL MVP winner Justin Verlander. Verlander is 8-5 with a 2.69 ERA and 0.978 WHIP in 17 starts this season. He's 3-2 with a 1.71 ERA and 0.912 WHIP in seven home starts. Verlander is also 10-7 with a 3.52 ERA in 21 career starts against Minnesota. Brian Duensing is 1-4 with a 4.10 ERA on the season for the Twins. The left-hander is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in two starts this season, giving up 7 earned runs and 14 base runners over 7 innings in losses to the Reds and Royals recently. Duensing is also 2-3 with a 5.90 ERA and 1.689 WHIP in seven career starts against Detroit. Verlander is 26-6 against the money line against division opponents over the last 3 seasons, and the Tigers are outscoring opponents 5.4 to 3.0 in this spot. Verlander is 49-18 against the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season since 1997, and the Tigers are winning in this spot 5.6 to 3.5 on average. Bet Detroit on the Run Line Wednesday.
06-15-12	Houston Astros v. Texas Rangers -1.5	Top	2-6	Win	100	11 h 13 m	Show
25* Interleague Run Line GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas Rangers -1.5 (-135) The Texas Rangers will roll over the Houston Astros in Game 1 of this interleague series Friday. I'll back them on the Run Line to win this one by two runs or more. The Rangers have a huge edge on the mound in this one. Yu Darvish is 7-4 with a 3.72 ERA in 12 starts this season, including 5-0 with a 3.37 ERA in five home starts. Jordan Lyles is 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.530 WHIP in six starts this season for Houston. Lyles has never beaten Texas, going 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA and 1.833 WHIP in three career starts against the Rangers. Houston is 14-38 when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons, losing in this spot 3.8 to 6.0 on average. The Astros are 0-11 in Lyles' last 11 road starts. The Rangers are 5-0 in Darvish's last 5 starts as a home favorite. Texas is 40-13 in their last 53 games following a loss. Bet the Rangers on the Run Line Friday.
06-14-12	Detroit Tigers -1.5 v. Chicago Cubs	Top	5-3	Win	100	4 h 33 m	Show
20* MLB Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Detroit Tigers -1.5 (-119) The Detroit Tigers should roll over the Chicago Cubs this afternoon with ace Justin Verlander on the mound. Chicago sends one of their worst starters to the bump in Tyler Wood, giving the Tigers a huge edge in the pitching department today. Verlander is 5-4 with a 2.69 ERA and 1.004 WHIP with 95 strikeouts in 93 2/3 innings spanning 13 starts this season. Wood is 0-2 with a 4.71 ERA in five starts for Chicago, including 0-0 with a 7.36 ERA in two home starts inside hitter-friendly Wrigley Field. Verlander is 18-2 against the money line as a road favorite of -125 or more over the last 2 seasons, and the Tigers are winning 4.7 to 2.6 on average in this spot. The Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 interleague games as a favorite of -201 or greater. Detroit is 10-1 in Verlander's last 11 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Cubs are 4-18 in their last 22 games following a loss. Bet Detroit on the Run Line Thursday.
05-30-12	Seattle: B Beavan v. Texas: D Holland -1.5		21-8	Loss	-110	9 h 15 m	Show
15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas Rangers -1.5 (-110) After an embarrassing 10-3 loss to the Seattle Mariners last night, I look for the Texas Rangers to get revenge in blowout fashion Wednesday. Seattle had lost five straight before that win while scoring a combined 11 runs in those five losses, so their offensive outburst was simply an aberration. Texas clearly has a huge edge at the plate as they hit .287 while scoring 5.7 runs/game this season, while Seattle hits just .229 and scores 3.8 runs/game. The Rangers also have the edge on the mound tonight with Derek Holland (4-3, 4.05 ERA, 1.167 WHIP) over Blake Beavan (2-4, 4.38 ERA, 1.277 WHIP). Holland has been dominant against the Mariners throughout his career. The left-hander is 5-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.042 WHIP in seven career starts against Seattle. Beavan has really struggled on the road this year, going 1-3 with a 4.79 ERA and 1.443 WHIP in five starts away from home. The Rangers are 13-1 in Holland's last 14 home starts following a loss. Texas is winning in this spot 9.2 to 4.4 on average, outscoring opponents by 4.8 runs/game. Roll with the Rangers on the Run Line Wednesday.
05-18-12	Los Angeles Angels -1.5 v. SD PADRES		7-2	Win	101	10 h 30 m	Show
15* Angels/Padres MLB Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -1.5 (+101) With ace Jered Weaver on the mound Friday, I like the Los Angeles Angels' chances of beating the lowly San Diego Padres by multiple runs. San Diego starter Jeff Suppan is washed up and overmatched in this one. Weaver has been tremendous this season, going 5-1 with a 2.83 ERA and 0.944 WHIP through eight starts. He has 49 strikeouts in 54 innings and he has already thrown a no-hitter to boot. Coming off his worst outing of the season at Texas, Weaver will be motivated to bounce back tonight. Suppan has actually pitched very well in three starts this season, but he hasn't faced a line-up nearly as potent as the one he'll be up against tonight. The Angels haven't hit that well yet this season, but it's only a matter of time with the talent they have up and down their line-up. Suppan has posted ERA's of 4.96, 5.29 and 5.06 in his last three seasons, respectively. The Padres are 0-10 after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season. They are getting outscored 2.1 to 5.3 in this spot, or by an average of 3.2 runs/game. Roll with the Angels on the Run Line Friday.
05-18-12	Pittsburgh Pirates v. Detroit Tigers -1.5		0-6	Win	100	8 h 40 m	Show
15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -1.5 (-106) After back-to-back losses to the lowly Minnesota Twins the last two days, it's safe to say that the Detroit Tigers will be hungry for a victory Friday. They turn to ace Justin Verlander to put an end to the losing streak, and I fully expect them to win in blowout fashion tonight over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Verlander won the AL MVP and the AL Cy Young last year in the same season. He has picked up right where he left off. The right-hander is 4-1 with a 2.47 ERA and 0.874 WHIP in eight starts this season. Verlander sports a 1.78 ERA and 0.758 WHIP through four home starts as well. Charlie Morton gets the ball for Pittsburgh. Morton has gone 2-3 with a 4.05 ERA and 1.440 WHIP in six starts this season, including 0-1 with a 7.72 ERA and 1.822 WHIP in two road starts. As you can see, he's clearly overmatched in this one. Pittsburgh is hitting .221 and scoring 2.9 runs/game this season, including .219 and 2.7 runs/game against right-handed starters. It's safe to say that Verlander will have his way with this weak line-up. Verlander is 34-6 as a favorite of -150 or more over the last 3 seasons, and the Tigers are winning by 2.4 runs/game in this spot. Take Detroit on the Run Line.
05-16-12	Oakland: T Milone v. Texas: Y Darvish -1.5		1-4	Win	100	9 h 3 m	Show
15* AL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -1.5 (-106) Off back-to-back embarrassing losses to the Kansas City Royals, I look for the Texas Rangers to come out extra motivated for a win tonight. It will help having their best starter on the mound as well, which should lead to a blowout victory over the Oakland A's in Game 1 of this series. Yu Darvish has lived up to the massive expectations set before him when the Rangers signed the Japanese star to huge contract this offseason. Darvish is 5-1 with a 2.84 ERA through seven starts in 2012. He has a whopping 51 strikeouts in 44 1/3 innings. A's starter Tom Milone has been solid at home this season, but it's been a completely different story for him outside of the hitter-friendly Coliseum. Milone is 2-2 with a 7.84 ERA and 1.548 WHIP in four starts starts in 2012, surrendering 18 earned runs and 5 homers in 20 2/3 innings. Texas is 20-3 in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. They are winning by an average of 3.0 runs/game in this spot. Roll with the Rangers on the Run Line Wednesday.
05-08-12	Detroit: Verlander -1.5 v. Seattle: K Millwood		6-4	Win	100	11 h 33 m	Show
15* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -1.5 (-109) My only loss yesterday in a 2-1 performance came on the Detroit Tigers as they blew a 2-0 lead going into the bottom of the 9th. Octavio Dotel gave up 3 runs in the final half inning to lose the game for Detroit. I was obviously frustrated with the loss, but the Tigers will be even more angry and I fully expect them to take it out on the Mariners in Game 2 tonight. Detroit has a lot of reason to be motivated heading into this one. The Tigers were swept at Comerica Park by the Mariners earlier this season, and they've now lost five straight to Seattle. There's no better starter they could have on the mound tonight to try and put an end to this losing streak. Ace Justin Verlander, last year's AL Cy Young AND MVP winner, gets the ball in Game 2. Verlander is 2-1 with a 2.38 ERA and 0.860 WHIP in six starts this season, so he's clearly picked up right where he left off last year. He'll be up against Kevin Millwood, the washed up veteran who is 0-3 with a 5.34 ERA nd 1.570 WHIP in five starts in 2012. Verlander is 15-0 (+15.0 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 or more over the last 2 seasons. The Tigers are winning in this situation by an average of 5.1 to 2.5 runs, outscoring opponents by 2.6 runs/game. Take the Tigers on the Run Line Tuesday.
04-23-12	Houston Astros v. Milwaukee Brewers -1.5		5-6	Loss	-100	10 h 42 m	Show
15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+104) Zach Greinke has been on an unbelievable home run since coming to Milwaukee last season. The Brewers will try to win their 18th consecutive game at Miller Park when Greinke starts as they open a series with the Houston Astros on Monday night. Greinke will make his first home start against the Astros (6-10) after going 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA in two starts in Houston last season - his first with Milwaukee. Since joining the club, the 2009 AL Cy Young winner is 12-0 with a 2.89 ERA in 17 starts at Miller Park. It's the longest home winning streak in the majors. Greinke is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.714 WHIP in two home starts this season. Greinke is 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA and 1.238 WHIP in three career starts against Houston. Lucas Harrell has posted a 4.22 ERA and 1.687 WHIP in two road starts this season for the Astros. Greinke is 19-0 against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons. His teams are winning by an average score of 5.6 to 3.0 in this spot. I like the Brewers to win by multiple runs over the lowly Astros behind Greinke in this one. Take Milwaukee on the Run Line Monday.
09-28-11	Pittsburgh Pirates v. Milwaukee Brewers -1.5	Top	3-7	Win	106	8 h 56 m	Show
20* NL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+106) Looking to secure home-field advantage in the first round of the playoffs, Milwaukee wraps up the regular season Wednesday night against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Brewers are currently one game ahead of the Arizona Diamondbacks for the #2 seed in the National League. A loss and a Diamondbacks win would put them as the #3 seed, which could mean they would be playing in Philly the first round. The Brewers (95-66), who have a franchise-best 56 wins at Miller Park, would secure home-field advantage in the opening round with a win over the Pirates. "That's very important," Prince Fielder said. "Not that we can't do it on the road by any means, but everybody knows we play a lot better at home. It's good to have the fans behind you, get your confidence, a little swag before you have to go on the road." Zach Greinke (15-6, 3.86 ERA) has been instrumental to the Brewers' success at home. The 2009 AL Cy Young Award winner has gone 10-0 in 14 starts at Miller Park, and the Brewers are a perfect 14-0 in those games. Milwaukee is 45-8 in their last 53 home meetings with Pittsburgh overall, including 20-3 at Miller Park over the last 3 seasons. They are winning by an average of 2 runs/game over the last 3 seasons, and 3 runs/game while going 7-1 at home against the Pirates in 2011. Bet Milwaukee on the Run Line Wednesday.
09-27-11	Pittsburgh Pirates v. Milwaukee Brewers -1.5	Top	4-6	Win	108	8 h 6 m	Show
25* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE YEAR on Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+108) Milwaukee's 55-24 home record - a franchise best - has helped the Brewers clinch their first division title since winning back-to-back AL East crowns in 1981 and 1982. However, the Brewers (94-66) are still concerned with seeding heading into the final two games of the regular season. Vying for the second-best record in the NL, they're one game ahead of West champion Arizona, which holds the tiebreaker due to winning the season series. Milwaukee could clinch home field for the first round Tuesday, but needs both a win over Pittsburgh (72-88) and a Diamondbacks defeat to Los Angeles to do so. Finishing ahead of Arizona would also assure the Brewers of avoiding major league-leading Philadelphia in a divisional series. Milwaukee has won 41 of its last 47 meetings with Pittsburgh at Miller Park. They had a 12-game home winning streak over the Pirates snapped yesterday. Milwaukee gives the ball to Randy Wolf, who is 13-10 with a 3.61 ERA this season. The left-hander dominated the Pirates through 6 2-3 scoreless innings of a 4-1 win at Pittsburgh on April 14, striking out a season-high 10 while limiting the Pirates to three hits. Ross Ohlendorf is one of the worst starters in the league at 1-3 with an 8.29 ERA and 1.990 WHIP in eight starts this season. In his lone start against the Brewers this season on 8/23, Ohlendorf gave up seven runs, 11 hits and 2 walks in 5 innings of a 4-11 loss. The Brewers are 21-3 in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) this season. They are winning in this spot 5.4 to 3.5 on average. Wolf is 26-13 against the run line (+14.3 Units) vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Ohlendorf is 2-9 against the run line (-11.3 Units) as a road underdog when the run line price is -160 to -105 over the last 2 seasons. This play falls into a system that is 35-14 (71.4%) against the RL since 1997. It tells us to bet against road underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+110 to +155) (PITTSBURGH) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.70 or worse on the season (NL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 to 1.350 on the season-NL. Bet the Brewers on the Run Line.
09-23-11	Chicago Cubs +1.5 v. St. Louis Cardinals		5-1	Win	100	9 h 24 m	Show
15* NL Run Line Play of the Day on Chicago Cubs +1.5 (-110) The Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals are huge rivals in the NL Central division. Chicago would love nothing more than to spoil the Cardinals' season, and Ryan Dempster is just the guy capable of doing that in Game 1 tonight. The Cubs have won four of their last six games overall, taking two out of three from Milwaukee last series. St. Louis blew a 6-1 lead last night to the New York Mets, giving up six runs in the top of the 9th to lose 8-6. That kind of loss is very hard to recover from, and I actually foresee the Cardinals losing this game outright. I'll take the extra run here just in case it's a one-run game in their favor. Dempster has faced the Cardinals 12 times since 2008, and the Cubs have won five of those contests. They have lost by exactly one run five times as well. That means that in 10 of those 12 meetings Chicago would have covered a +1.5 run line. That's an 83% success rate with Dempster on the mound in all meetings since 2008. Chris Carpenter has faced Chicago six times since 7/25/2010. The Cardinals are just 3-3 in those games, and they have only won by two runs or more one time. That's an 83% system against a +1.5 run line working in the Cubs favor once again as Chicago has covered the +1.5 run line in five of those six meetings. Carpenter has yielded 22 earned runs in 39 1/3 innings over this stretch for a 5.03 ERA. Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Friday.
09-15-11	Cleveland Indians v. Texas Rangers -1.5		4-7	Win	100	10 h 47 m	Show
15* AL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -1.5 (-110) The defending AL champs have really turned it on of late. The Texas Rangers have won three straight games, outscoring the opposition 27-6 in the process. They are red hot at the plate, and I look for that to continue tonight against Cleveland starter Fausto Carmona. Carmona is 6-14 with a 5.18 ERA on the season. The right-hander is 0-2 with a 6.84 ERA in five starts since beating the Chicago White Sox on Aug. 17. He's allowed opponents to hit at a .340 clip and has pitched into the seventh inning just once over that span. Alexi Ogando is 12-8 with a 3.71 ERA this season for Texas. Starting against Cleveland for the first time on June 3, Ogando held the Indians to a run and four hits over eight innings as Texas cruised to an 11-2 win. This play falls into a system that is 37-9 (80.4%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on any team (TEXAS) - red hot hitting team - batting .315 or better over their last 15 games against opponent with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games. These teams are winning by an average of 2.0 RPG in this spot. Texas is 10-1 after 2 straight wins by 4 runs or more this season, winning 5.9 to 3.5 on average in this situation. Take the Rangers on the Run Line.
09-13-11	Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 v. Houston Astros	Top	2-5	Loss	-139	9 h 31 m	Show
20* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -139 Cole Hamels looks to build on another complete game when the Philadelphia Phillies try to avoid their longest slide in over three months Tuesday night against the Astros. Hamels (14-7, 2.60 ERA) needs one victory to match his career high from 2007, and the left-hander appears to be on his way to doing so since he leads the NL with 11 wins in September since 2008. He's 14-6 with a 2.72 ERA in 26 starts in September. Hamels' latest performance fortified his efforts to be among the elite, as he set a career high with his third complete game by tossing a four-hitter in a 7-2 win at Milwaukee on Thursday. A loss Tuesday would put Philadelphia on its longest slide since a season-high four-game skid May 31-June 4. I certainly like their chances of bouncing back against the Astros (50-97). J.A. Happ (5-15, 5.77 ERA) takes the mound opposite his former teammate, as he tries to avoid becoming the first Astros since Chris Holt and Jose Lima in 2000 to lose 16 games. The Astros are 5-20 in Happ's 25 starts in 2011. Happ is 1-12 (3-10 RL) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The Astros are getting outscored by 3.4 RPG in this spot. Roll with the Phillies on the Run Line Tuesday.
09-01-11	New York Yankees v. Boston Red Sox -1.5		4-2	Loss	-100	8 h 41 m	Show
15* AL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+102) The Boston Red Sox have a huge edge on the mound tonight, and I'll side with them on the Run Line because of it. Coming off back-to-back horrendous outings, A.J. Burnett could be pitching to stay in the New York Yankees' starting rotation. Burnett, winless against the Red Sox over the last three seasons, was tagged for nine runs and nine hits in five innings of Friday's 12-5 loss to Baltimore. It was the second straight disastrous performance for the right-hander, who was shelled for seven runs in 1 2-3 innings of a 9-4 loss to Minnesota on Aug. 20. He finished August 1-2 with an 11.91 ERA in five starts. Since signing with the Yankees prior to the 2009 season, Burnett is 0-4 with an 8.71 ERA in eight starts against the Red Sox, and has a 10.61 ERA in six outings at Fenway. In his lone start of the season against Boston on June 8, he was knocked around for eight runs and seven hits in 5 2-3 innings of an 11-6 defeat. Jon Lester (14-6, 3.09 ERA) comes into this start on a roll, having won his last three starts behind a 1.42 ERA while allowing nine hits over 19 innings. He gave up two runs and three hits in six innings Saturday before a 45-minute rain delay ended his night in a 9-3 victory over Oakland. The two-time All-Star improved to 2-1 with a 1.91 ERA in his last five starts at Fenway. Burnett is 0-6 vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. The Yankees are losing these games by 3.5 RPG on average. Lester is 13-2 vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season since 1997, and the Red Sox are winning by 3.8 RPG in this spot. Bet Boston on the Run Line Thursday.
08-30-11	Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 v. Cincinnati Reds	Top	9-0	Win	100	16 h 5 m	Show
20* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (-111) The Phillies have a huge edge on the mound which is why I'm backing them on the Run Line Tuesday. Bronson Arroyo is no match for Roy Halladay in this one, and the final score will show it. Halladay is having a Cy Young-caliber season, going 15-5 with a 2.56 ERA and 1.054 WHIP through 26 starts. Halladay is 2-1 with a 2.64 ERA and 1.154 WHIP in six career starts against Cincinnati. Bronson Arroyo has been atrocious this season, going 8-10 with a 5.02 ERA and 1.370 WHIP. No team has owned him quite like the Phillies. Arroyo is 1-6 with a 6.80 ERA and 1.689 WHIP in nine career starts against Philly. Halladay is 20-4 (+11.7 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more this season. The Phillies are winning 5.0 to 3.3 on average in this spot. Halladay is 19-3 19-3 (+14.5 Units) against the money line after a game where he did not walk a batter over the last 2 seasons. Philly is winning 5.4 to 2.2 in this situation. Take the Phillies on the Run Line Tuesday.
08-27-11	Detroit Tigers -1.5 v. Minnesota Twins	Top	6-4	Win	100	6 h 3 m	Show
20* AL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -1.5 (-117) The Detroit Tigers simply cannot be tamed right now. Detroit has won seven of their last eight to increase their lead in the AL Central division. Taming Justin Verlander has been nearly impossible all season. Verlander is 19-5 with a 2.27 ERA and 0.878 WHIP in 28 starts this season. He should have his way with a Minnesota team that has lost six straight games. In fact, the Twins have lost all six by three runs or more, getting outscored 5-35 in the process. Detroit is 10-3 against Minnesota this season, with eight of those wins coming by two runs or more. The Tigers are also 6-1 in seven games at Target Field in 2011. Carl Pavano is 0-4 with a 5.61 ERA in eight second-half starts. Verlander has defeated Minnesota twice in the last six weeks with a 1.15 ERA, and is 5-1 with a 1.13 ERA in seven day games. Verlander has given up two earned runs in 24 2/3 innings for a 0.73 ERA in his last three starts against Minnesota. The Tigers won all three of those games by four runs or more. Verlander is 9-0 as a road favorite of -125 or more this season, and the Tigers are outscoring opponents 5.1 to 2.3 in this spot. Bet Detroit on the Run Line Saturday.
08-21-11	Texas Rangers v. Chicago White Sox +1.5		0-10	Win	100	4 h 58 m	Show
15* AL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago White Sox +1.5 (-141) I believe this is a very evenly matched game on the mound and there is a high probability that this one is decided by one run. Gavin Floyd sports a 4.66 ERA and 1.217 WHIP in 23 starts this season for Chicago, while Derek Holland has posted a 4.23 ERA and 1.397 WHIP in 25 starts for Texas in 2011. In his lone start against Texas this season, Floyd allowed just one earned run and four base runners in seven innings on 5/25/2011. Holland was roughed up for four earned runs and two home runs in four innings of a 6-8 loss to the White Sox on 5/24/2011 in his lone start against Chicago. This play falls into a system that is 64-30 (68.1%, +49.3 units) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (CHI WHITE SOX) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (AL), with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.250 the last 15 games. This system is 8-6 in 2011 while netting +4.9 units. Bet the White Sox on the Run Line Sunday.
08-21-11	Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 v. New York Mets		6-2	Win	126	3 h 58 m	Show
15* NL Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+126) The Milwaukee Brewers are the hottest team in baseball. Milwaukee (75-52) appeared headed to an easy victory Saturday before it blew a six-run lead only to score four times in the ninth inning to erase a two-run deficit and beat New York 11-9 for its 21st win in 24 games. Yovani Gallardo has really turned it on of late, going 3-2 with a 1.98 ERA over his last six starts for Milwaukee. The Brewers are 16-7 against the run line in their last 23 games, while the Mets are 5-12 against the run line in their last 17. This play falls into a system that is 78-36 (68.4%, +48.9 units) since 1997. It tells us to bet against home teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (NY METS) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season (NL), after a game where the bullpen was hit hard for 4 or more earned runs. This system is 2-1 this season. Roll with the Brewers on the Run Line Sunday.
08-21-11	Cleveland Indians v. Detroit Tigers -1.5		7-8	Loss	-100	3 h 54 m	Show
15* AL Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Tigers -1.5 (+182) I am backing the Detroit Tigers to win Sunday by two runs or more. The Tigers absolutely throttled Cleveland 10-1 yesterday, really beating up the Indians' bullpen. Ubaldo Jimenez has been the most overrated starter in baseball all season. Jimenez is 7-9 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.393 WHIP in 24 starts, and his teams are 9-15 in those outings. The righty is 1-7 against the money line in day games this season, with his team losing 4.0 to 6.6 on average. Jimenez is 1-9 against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. His teams are getting outscored 1.8 to 5.2 in this spot. Detroit starter Rick Porcello is 4-1 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.222 WHIP in nine career starts against Cleveland. He has allowed two earned runs or less in seven of those nine starts. This play falls into a system that is 65-39 (62.5%, +49.6 units) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against all underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-190 to -135) (CLEVELAND) - poor offensive team - scoring <=4.7 runs/game on the season (AL), after a loss by 8 runs or more. This system is 13-5 in 2011 while gaining +12.6 units. Take the Tigers on the Run Line Sunday.
08-19-11	San Francisco Giants v. Houston Astros +1.5		0-6	Win	100	9 h 39 m	Show
15* NL Run Line Play of the Day on Houston Astros +1.5 (-120) The Houston Astros are showing solid value on the Run Line tonight. Wandy Rodriquez is 8-9 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.288 WHIP on the season and he's clearly not getting the respect he deserves. Ryan Vogelsong sports a 3.46 ERA and 1.365 WHIP in nine road starts this year for San Francisco, and he's way overvalued right now after the season he has put together. The last time Rodriquez faced the Giants he didn't allow a single earned run in six innings of work. This play falls into a system that is 91-25 (78.4%, +53.5 units) over the last five seasons. It tells us to bet on all underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-190 to +165) (HOUSTON) - with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts. This system is 14-2 (+10.6 Units) this season. Bet the Astros on the Run Line Friday.
08-19-11	Seattle Mariners v. Tampa Bay Rays +1.5		2-3	Win	100	8 h 43 m	Show
15* AL Run Line Play of the Day on Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 (-150) Seattle has the worst offense in baseball, and they cannot be trusted on the run line because of it. The Mariners are hitting .231 and scoring 3.4 RPG this season, numbers that making going against them on the -1.5 run line very tempting. Felix Hernandez has faced the Rays eight times in his career, and five of those games were decided by exactly one run. Seattle is 9-20 against the run line (-16.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season. This play falls into a system that is 91-49 (65%, +54.3 units) over the last five seasons. It tells us to bet on home teams against a 1.5 run line (TAMPA BAY) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (AL). The Rays are 26-9 against the run line (+20.7 Units) after 4 or more consecutive road games this season. Roll with the Rays on the Run Line Friday.
08-13-11	Houston Astros +1.5 v. Los Angeles Dodgers		1-6	Loss	-120	21 h 54 m	Show
15* Astros/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston +1.5 (-120) The Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers feature two of the worst offenses in the game. That's why there is an excellent chance that this one is decided by one run, just like last night's 1-0 Dodgers' victory in extra innings. Wandy Rodriquez is getting overlooked by odds makers here, and Clayton Kershaw is getting too much respect. Rodriquez is 6-5 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.258 WHIP in 12 road starts this season. The lefty is 4-3 with a 2.44 ERA and 1.265 WHIP in nine career starts against the Dodgers. Rodriquez pitched six shutout innings in his lone start against L.A. this season on 6/18 to earn the win in a 7-0 victory. Kershaw is 1-1 with a 3.91 ERA in four career starts against Houston. Kershaw is 22-43 against the run line (-26.1 Units) in night games over the last 3 seasons. The Dodgers are hitting just .239 and scoring 3.2 RPG at home this year. This is an offensively-challenged team that should not be getting this much respect. Roll with the Astros on the Run Line Saturday.
08-08-11	Philadelphia Phillies v. Los Angeles Dodgers +1.5		5-3	Loss	-110	10 h 1 m	Show
15* Phillies/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +1.5 (-110) The Los Angeles Dodgers are showing solid value on the Run Line Monday night, and I'll take full advantage. This is surely to be a pitcher's duel tonight between one of the best starters in the game in Roy Halladay, and perhaps the most underrated starter in the league in Hiroki Kuroda. That's why I can see this one being decided by one run come game's end. Kuroda is 7-13 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.214 WHIP in 22 starts this season. The righty is 1-0 with a 0.69 ERA in his last two starts, yielding just one earned run in 13 innings of work while striking out 14. Kuroda is 3-2 with a 2.52 ERA and 0.839 WHIP in seven career starts against Philadelphia. This is certainly one opponent he really enjoys facing. This play falls into a system that is 105-40 (72.4%) while gaining +48.7 units over the last five seasons. It tells us to bet against all favorites against a 1.5 run line (Money Line =-190 to +175) (PHILADELPHIA) - average offensive team (4.3 to 4.8 runs/game) against a good starter (ERA<=3.70) (NL), with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season (NL). In his last two starts against the Phillies, Kuroda is 1-1 with a 0.69 ERA, allowing one earned run and 10 base runners in 13 innings while striking out 14. Of his seven career starts against Philly, Kuroda has allowed 2 earned runs or less six times. Roll with the Dodgers Monday.
08-06-11	Detroit Tigers -1.5 v. Kansas City Royals		4-3	Loss	-116	8 h 52 m	Show
15* AL Saturday Run Line Rout on Detroit Tigers -1.5 (-116) The Detroit Tigers will have no problem winning tonight by multiple runs with Ace Justin Verlander on the mound. Verlander is 15-5 with a 2.24 ERA and 0.867 WHIP in 24 starts this season, including 7-2 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.832 WHIP in 11 road starts. Verlander is 12-2 with a 2.31 ERA and 1.077 WHIP in 18 career starts against Kansas City. In two starts against the Royals this season, Verlander is 2-0 with a 0.57 ERA while allowing 1 earned run and 11 base runners in 15 2/3 innings. Royals' starter Danny Duffy is 3-4 with a 5.05 ERA and 1.670 WHIP in 13 starts this year. Verlander is 17-4 against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons, with the Tigers winning by 2.4 RPG on average. The Tigers are 14-3 in Verlander's last 17 starts overall. The Royals are 1-6 in Duffy's last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Verlander is a perfect 7-0 7-0 against the run line (+7.5 Units) when working on 5 or 6 days rest this season. The Tigers are winning by 3.3 RPG in this spot. Take Detroit on the Run Line Saturday.
08-05-11	Seattle Mariners v. Los Angeles Angels -1.5	Top	0-1	Loss	-114	10 h 26 m	Show
25* AL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Angels -1.5 (-114) The Los Angeles Angels are on an absolute tear right now and have pulled within one game of the Texas Rangers in the AL West division. The Angels are 25-12 in their last 37 games overall, including 16-5 in their last 21 home contests. They have been taking care of business in the role of the favorite, going 22-6 in their last 28 games when favored. I really like backing them on the Run Line with Ace Jered Weaver on the mound Friday. Weaver is 14-5 with a 1.88 ERA and 0.942 WHIP this season, including 6-1 with a 1.71 ERA at home. He's up against Jason Vargas, who is 6-10 with a 4.19 ERA in 22 starts, 1-4 with a 4.53 ERA in nine road starts, and 0-3 with a 9.49 ERA and 2.352 WHIP in his last three outings. Vargas has given up 19 runs, 13 earned, and 29 base runners in 12 1/3 innings over his last three starts. Weaver is 12-4 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.187 WHIP in 21 career starts against Seattle, including 6-1 with a 1.22 ERA in his last nine starts. Vargas gave up 5 earned runs in 7 innings of a 3-6 loss to the Angels the last time he faced them on 6/13/2011. Weaver has allowed just 1 earned run in 18 innings while pitching back-to-back complete games in his last two starts against Seattle. The Angels won both games by exactly four runs. The Angels are 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a left-handed starter, 4-0 in Weaver's last 4 starts during game 1 of a series, and 5-0 in Weaver's last 5 starts vs. AL West opponents. The Angels are 10-0 in Weaver's 10 career home starts against Seattle, never having lost. In fact, Los Angeles has won nine of those games by two runs or more. These four trends add up to a perfect 26-0 system working in the Angels' favor tonight. Bet Los Angeles on the Run Line Friday.
08-05-11	Oakland A's v. Tampa Bay Rays -1.5		4-8	Win	128	8 h 30 m	Show
15* AL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+128) The Tampa Bay Rays are coming off an improbable win over the Toronto Blue Jays. The Rays had three hits with runners in scoring position in extra innings alone - rallying three times - during a wild 12-inning series finale Thursday against Toronto, the last of which was a single by rookie Robinson Chirinos that provided a 7-6 victory. Tampa won five of their last seven games, scoring at least seven runs in each of those victories. Jeff Niemann (5-4, 3.51 ERA) has made 74 major league starts, but he's never had a month as good as the one he just finished. The 6-foot-9 right-hander held Seattle to three hits over 6 2-3 innings in an 8-0 victory last Friday, lowering his ERA for July to 1.06 - a club record for any month. He's 4-0 with a 1.88 ERA in seven starts since coming off the disabled list from a lower back strain that cost him six weeks. Niemann is 1-3 with a 4.29 ERA in six home starts, but he has fared awfully well in two outings at Tropicana Field against the A's (49-62). He's won them both with a 1.59 ERA, including a seven-hit shutout July 10, 2009. Oakland is 7-29 in their last 36 road games overall. A's starter Guillermo Moscoso is 1-1 with a 7.31 ERA and 1.875 WHIP in his last three starts. One of those outings came against Tampa Bay on 7/25, where he allowed 5 earned runs and 12 base runners in 5 innings. Oakland is 0-8 in road games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season this season. The A's are losing by 3.3 RPG in this spot. Niemann is 12-1 vs. terrible power teams - averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game over the last 3 seasons. The Rays are outscoring foes by 4.2 RPG in this situation. Take the Rays on the Run Line Friday.
08-04-11	Chicago Cubs v. Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5	Top	7-6	Loss	-100	7 h 5 m	Show
20* NL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (+151) The Pittsburgh Pirates are showing tremendous value on the Run Line tonight. This is a team hungry for a victory after six straight losses. I like their chances tonight to put an end to this losing streak with a blowout win over the lowly Chicago Cubs. Pittsburgh sends James McDonald to the mound, who is 3-1 with a 2.83 ERA in 10 home starts this season. Chicago throws Rodrigo Lopez, who is 2-3 with a 4.40 ERA and 1.419 WHIP this year, including 0-1 with a 7.84 ERA and 1.936 WHIP in two road starts. The Cubs are 14-32 after a win this season, getting outscored 3.5 to 5.4 on average. The Pirates are 10-4 revenging a one run loss to opponent this season, outscoring foes 4.4 to 2.5 on average. Lopez is 0-14 in his career in road games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse. His teams are losing 2.4 to 6.4 in this spot. So as you can see, this is a 100% never lost system that tells us to fade Lopez and the Cubs. Bet Pittsburgh on the Run Line Thursday.
07-26-11	Kansas City Royals v. Boston Red Sox -1.5	Top	9-13	Win	116	7 h 3 m	Show
20* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+116) I'll side with the Boston Red Sox Tuesday to bounce back in a big way from a rare loss to the lowly Kansas City Royals. Boston simply didn't show up to play yesterday, and lost in extra innings. They won't make the same mistake tonight and are primed to put up a big number on KC starter Danny Duffy. The lefty is 2-4 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.579 WHIP in 11 starts this season, issuing 27 walks in 59 innings. He is going to struggle to find the strike zone against this potent Boston lineup as he tries not to make mistakes over the plate. Andrew Miller has given Boston's rotation a nice lift. The Red Sox are 5-1 in Miller's six starts this season, winning all five times by two runs or more. Boston has outscored their opponents 42-11 in those five games. The Red Sox are 16-4 in their last 20 games overall, winning 13 times by two runs or more. KC is 11-40 in their last 51 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Royals are 0-5 in Duffy's last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss, and 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. Boston is 5-0 in Miller's last 5 starts as a favorite. These four trends add up to a perfect 19-0 system working in Boston's favor. Take the Red Sox on the Run Line Tuesday.
07-25-11	Houston Astros v. St. Louis Cardinals -1.5		5-10	Win	114	20 h 50 m	Show
15* NL Monday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+114) The Houston Astros are very unproud owners of the worst record in baseball. Houston is just 33-68 on the season. It's so bad this year that the Astros were swept by the Cubs last series, which was the first 3-game sweep for Chicago all season. Making matters worse tonight is the fact that Houston will be sending their worst starter to the mound. J.A. Happ has been atrocious, going 4-11 with a 5.88 ERA and 1.590 WHIP in 19 starts. While he has been respectable at home, Happ has been exploited on the road. Happ is 1-6 with a 7.62 ERA and 1.790 WHIP in eight road starts this season. Kyle McClellan has done a nice job filling in for Adam Wainwright this season, going 6-6 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.331 WHIP in 16 starts. McClellan is 2-0 in with a 4.61 ERA and 1.097 WHIP in two starts against Houston this season, and the Cards won by margins of 11-7 and 4-2 in those contests. He gave up just 2 earned runs and 5 base runners in 8 innings in his lone home starts against Houston on 5/19/2011. Happ is 1-5 with a 5.82 ERA and 1.371 WHIP in six career starts against St. Louis. He gave up 6 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of a 2-9 loss to St. Louis in his last start against them on 6/9/2011. The Astros are 4-15 in Happ's 19 starts this season, losing 4.0 to 6.1 on average. Happ is 4-11 against the run line (-12.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons. Houston is 0-6 against the run line (-8.7 Units) vs. a starting pitcher who strikes out 3 or less batters per start this season. They Astros are losing 2.3 to 5.5 in this spot. Roll with the Cardinals on the Run Line Monday.
07-25-11	Kansas City Royals v. Boston Red Sox -1.5	Top	3-1	Loss	-132	19 h 46 m	Show
25* AL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-132) The Boston Red Sox have simply been crushing teams of late. I have no problem taking them on the Run Line tonight considering they are very likely to beat the lowly Kansas City Royals by two runs or more. Boston has won four straight games, all by two runs or more. The Red Sox are 16-3 in their last 19 games overall, winning 13 times by two runs or more. Jon Lester returns from the DL looking to pick up right where he left off. Lester is 10-4 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.207 WHIP in 18 starts this season, including 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.455 WHIP in his last two starts. He has pitched 11 shutout innings while giving up only 5 base runners in his last two outings. Kyle Davies has been one of the worst starters in all of baseball this season for the Royals. Davies is 1-9 with a 7.32 ERA and 1.880 WHIP in 12 starts, including 1-5 with a 9.35 ERA and 2.115 WHIP in six road outings. He wouldn't start on more than a handful of teams in this league. Lester is 4-0 with a 0.28 ERA in four career home starts against Kansas City, allowing 1 earned run in 32 innings. Davies is 0-9 in night games this season, and the Royals are getting outscored 2.4 to 7.0 in this spot. Davies is 0-6 against the run line (-8.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The Royals are losing 2.0 to 7.7 on average in this situation. Take Boston on the Run Line Monday.
07-25-11	Seattle Mariners v. New York Yankees -1.5		3-10	Win	100	19 h 40 m	Show
15* AL Monday No-Brainer on New York Yankees -1.5 (-102) The Seattle Mariners are in the midst of the longest losing streak in the big leagues. Seattle hast lost 15 straight games, losing 13 times by two runs or more. I'm going to continue to fade them Monday by taking the New York Yankees on the Run Line in Game 1 of this series. The Yankees have a big edge on the mound tonight. Freddy Garcia is 8-7 with a 3.21 ERA in 17 starts this season, including 1-1 with a 2.89 ERA in his last 3 starts. Jason Vargas is 6-8 with a 3.94 ERA in 20 starts for the Mariners, including 0-3 with a 6.35 ERA in his last three outings. Vargas has given up 10 earned runs, 3 home runs and 24 base runners in 9 innings over his last two starts. Vargas has never beaten New York, going 0-2 with a 7.97 ERA and 1.623 WHIP in four career starts against the Yankees. He has given up 13 earned runs and 17 base runners in 9 1/3 innings in his last two starts against New York. Garcia is 2-0 with a 3.79 ERA in his last three starts against Seattle, allowing 3 runs or less while lasting at least 6 innings in all three outings. The Yankees are 15-5 against the run line (+12.7 Units) against AL West opponents this season. They are winning 6.3 to 3.5 on average in this spot. The Mariners are just 2-13 against the run line during their 15-game losing streak and are worth fading again tonight. Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Monday.
07-10-11	Arizona Diamondbacks v. St. Louis Cardinals -1.5	Top	2-4	Win	124	13 h 51 m	Show
25* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+124) I am backing the St. Louis Cardinals on the Run Line Sunday in a game I'm very confident they will win by two runs or more. They have a ton of momentum coming into this one after erasing a 6-3 deficit over the final two innings Saturday to come back and beat the Arizona Diamondbacks 7-6. They also have a huge edge on the mound with Jamie Garcia over Zach Duke. Garcia is 8-3 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.240 WHIP In 18 starts this season, while Duke is 2-3 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.622 WHIP in eight starts this year. Garcia is 5-1 with a miniscule 0.94 ERA and 0.837 WHIP in eight home starts in 2011. The Cardinals have won five of those eight contests by two runs or more. Garcia has only faced the Diamondbacks once in his career, allowing 1 earned run in 5 innings to get the win in a 5-2 victory. Duke gave up 6 earned runs in 5 innings of a 1-9 loss to the Cardinals in his last start against them. Arizona is 5-15 against the run line as a road underdog when the run line price is +110 to +155 over the last 2 seasons. The Cardinals are 8-0 in Garcia's last 8 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Bet St. Louis Sunday.
07-10-11	Tampa Bay Rays v. New York Yankees -1.5		0-1	Loss	-100	12 h 40 m	Show
15* AL East Play of the Weekend on New York Yankees -1.5 (+135) C.C. Sabathia has been virutally unhittable here of late, and I'll back him and the New York Yankees to beat James Shields and the Tampa Bay Rays by two runs or more Sunday. Sabathia is 12-4 with a 2.90 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in 19 starts this season, including 3-0 with a 0.40 ERA and 1.015 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He has allowed just 1 earned run while striking out 33 batters in 22 2/3 innings during this incredible stretch. Shields is just 3-9 with a 4.84 ERA and 1.399 WHIP in 16 career starts against New York, while Sabathia is 8-5 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.194 WHIP in 20 career starts against Tampa. The Rays are 4-12 in Shields' 16 starts versus New York, losing 10 of those games by two runs or more. The Yankees are 24-5 in day games this season, winning by 2.5 RPG on average. Sabathia is 26-7 against the run line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.. The Yankees are winning by 3.8 RPG in this situation. Sabathia is 17-3 against the run line vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. New York is winning by 5.0 RPG in this spot. Sabathia is 15-4 against the run line in day games over the last 2 seasons, with the Yankees outscoring opponents by 3.8 RPG. Roll with the Yankees on the Run Line Sunday.
06-26-11	Washington Nationals v. Chicago White Sox -1.5		2-1	Loss	-100	14 h 1 m	Show
15* AL Sunday No Doubt Rout on Chicago White Sox -1.5 +141 I'm backing the White Sox on the Run Line Sunday to beat the Washington Nationals by two runs or more. Washington is very distracted right now from the resigning of manager Jim Riggleman to the hiring of a new skipper. This team simply isn't mentally in it right now, and were shut out 3-0 Saturday because of it. Look for the White Sox to get another dominant effort from starter Phil Humber Sunday. Humber is 7-3 with a 2.90 ERA and 0.978 WHIP in 13 starts and two relief appearances this season. Humber is 3-2 with a 2.50 ERA and 0.933 WHIP in six home starts, and 3-0 with a 2.42 ERA and 0.985 WHIP in his last three starts. Livan Hernandez is 0-6 with a 5.67 ERA and 1.700 WHIP in eight road starts this season for Washington. The Nationals are 0-8 in Hernandez's eight road outings, losing six times by two runs or more. Roll with the White Sox on the Run Line Sunday.
06-26-11	Oakland A's +1.5 v. Philadelphia Phillies		1-3	Loss	-115	13 h 27 m	Show
15* MLB Run Line Play of the Day on Oakland A's +1.5 (-115) I'll take the extra run Sunday on the Oakland A's on the Run Line. They are showing great value here against a Phillies team that simply isn't hitting very well at all this season. Philly is only batting .246 and scoring 4.1 RPG this season. Those numbers drop to .237 and 3.8 RPG against left-handed starters. Underrated lefty Josh Outman gets the ball for Oakland Sunday. Outman is 3-1 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.211 WHIP in six starts this season, including 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.895 WHIP in his last three outings. The A's are 50-34 in day games over the last 2 seasons. Oakland is a very profitable 33-32 as a road underdog of +175 to +200 since 1997. Take the A's on the Run Line Sunday.
06-25-11	Los Angeles Angels v. Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5		6-1	Loss	-100	6 h 33 m	Show
15* NL Run Line Play of the Day on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 +166 The Los Angeles Dodgers are showing tremendous value on the Run Line Saturday. Instead of laying -135 to get them on the money line, I'm going to take the extra 100-plus points of juice and bank on them winning by 2 runs or more. They have the kind of advantage on the mound which makes me believe they will get it done. Hiroki Kuroda has posted a 3.07 ERA and 1.272 WHIP in 15 starts this year, and a 1.45 ERA and 1.018 WHIP in his last three starts. Tyler Chatwood is 4-4 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.512 WHIP in 14 starts this season for the Angels, and 1-2 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.471 WHIP in his last three outings. The Angels are 6-14 when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) this season. They are losing in this spot by 1.7 RPG. Los Angeles is 5-14 in their last 19 games following a win. The Dodgers are 7-3 in their last 10 interleague games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Roll with the Dodgers on the Run Line Saturday.
06-25-11	Washington Nationals v. Chicago White Sox -1.5	Top	0-3	Win	140	6 h 34 m	Show
20* AL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago White Sox -1.5 +140 I'll back the White Sox Saturday on the Run Line in what I expect to be a blowout win by 2 runs or more over the Washington Nationals. Washington starter Tom Gorzelanny is 0-3 with a 7.65 ERA in four starts since beating Florida on May 7. John Danks is 2-2 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.257 WHIP in seven home starts this year, including 3-0 with a 1.23 ERA and 0.955 WHIP in his last three starts. Danks has only allowed 3 earned runs and 21 base runners in 22 innings over his last three outings. The Nationals are 3-19 in road games after a win by 4 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. They are losing in this spot by 1.8 RPG. The Nationals are 81-167 in their last 248 road games. Washington is 0-4 in Gorzellany's last 4 starts, losing the last three all by three runs or more. The White Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Chicago is 4-0 in Danks' last 4 starts as a favorite. This makes for a perfect 14-0 system in favor of the White Sox. Bet Chicago on the Run Line Saturday.
06-19-11	San Diego Padres v. Minnesota Twins -1.5	Top	4-5	Loss	-100	5 h 30 m	Show
20* Interleague Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Twins -1.5 (+147) The Minnesota Twins are red hot right now and I'll continue to back them with my money Sunday. This time, I'll take them on the Run Line to maximize the value. Minnesota owned the majors' worst record at 17-37 and were 16 1/2 games back of division-leading Cleveland on June 2, but the Twins (30-39) have since won 13 of 15 after beating San Diego 1-0 on Saturday. They've pulled within eight games of the AL Central lead during their run. Like Minnesota, Francisco Liriano (4-6, 4.67 ERA) has come on strong after a rough start. Since his no-hitter against the Chicago White Sox on May 3, Liriano is 3-2 with a 1.89 ERA while holding opponents to a .135 average in six starts. He beat Texas 6-1 on Sunday, allowing one run and two hits with nine strikeouts through eight innings. San Diego (30-42) has lost four straight and seven of eight, scoring three or fewer runs in seven of those games. The Padres' .231 batting average is worst in the NL, and their 238 runs rank last in baseball. The Padres are 0-8 vs. a bullpen that averages less than 2.75 innings per game this season, getting outscored 1.6 to 4.0 in this spot. Bet the Twins on the Run Line Sunday.
06-16-11	Cleveland Indians v. Detroit Tigers -1.5		2-6	Win	135	2 h 5 m	Show
15* AL Run Line Play of the Day on Detroit Tigers -1.5 (+135) The Detroit Tigers have the edge on the mound today with Max Scherzer over Mitch Talbot. Scherzer has posted an 8-2 record this season, and he's 4-1 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.263 WHIP in eight home starts this year. Mitch Talbot is 2-3 with a 4.01 ERA and 1.634 WHIP in six starts this season for Cleveland. This is the finale of a 3-game set between these teams after they split the first two meetings. I am siding with the home team as the winner of this one will be in first place in the AL Central at the conclusion of this series. Detroit is 16-4 in all home meetings with Cleveland over the last 3 seasons. The Tigers are 37-12 as a favorite of -150 or more over the last 2 seasons, outscoring opponents by 2.0 RPG in this spot. Cleveland is 0-4 in Talbot's last 4 starts as an underdog of +151 to +200. Detroit is 6-0 in their last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game and 5-0 in their last five games following a loss. These three systems add up to a perfect 15-0 system in favor of the Tigers. Plus, Detroit is 10-1 in Scherzer's last 11 starts during Game 3 of a series. Roll with the Tigers on the Run Line Thursday.
06-16-11	Florida Marlins v. Philadelphia Phillies -1.5		0-3	Win	100	2 h 5 m	Show
15* NL Run Line Play of the Day on Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (-108) The Florida Marlins have really been struggling, and now they send their worst starter to the mound tonight to face the best team in the National League in the Philadelphia Phillies. The Marlins are 1-14 in their last 15 games overall. Javier Vasquez gets the start and is in line to get rocked once again. Vazquez is 3-6 with a 7.09 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in 13 starts this season. He has posted an 11.20 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in his last three starts Cliff Lee has been solid, going 6-5 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.21 WHIP for Philly. Lee is 5-1 with a 2.17 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in eight home starts this year. Vazquez gave up 5 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of a 4-6 loss to the Phillies the last time he faced them. Lee has given up 3 earned runs or less in each of his three career starts against Florida. The Phillies have won 6 straight games and they are 40-16 in their last 56 home contests. Philly is also 41-12 in their last 53 games as a favorite of -201 or greater. I like them to win by 2 runs or more today. Take the Phillies on the Run Line Thursday.
06-09-11	Washington Nationals v. San Diego Padres -1.5		3-7	Win	182	20 h 9 m	Show
15* Nationals/Padres NL Late-Night BAILOUT on San Diego -1.5 +182 Not only do I believe the Padres are going to win tonight, I have no doubt they win this game over the Nationals by 2 runs or more. With the value they are showing on the run line, I had to pull the trigger Thursday. San Diego comes in with a big edge on the mound. Aaron Harang is 6-2 with a 3.89 ERA on the season, 4-2 with a 3.48 ERA at home and 1-0 with a 2.75 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Padres are 9-3 in Harang's 12 starts this year, winning five of those contests by 2 runs or more. Livan Hernandez has been brutal on the road, going 0-5 with a 5.10 ERA and 1.677 WHIP in seven starts away from home. The Nationals are 0-7 in those contests, losing five times by 2 runs or more. Looking for an offensive boost, the Padres appear ready to make Anthony Rizzo's dream come true. The Padres' prized prospect is expected to make his major league debut at first base Thursday night. Rizzo batted .365 with 16 homers and 63 RBIs, and slugged a whopping .715 in 52 games for Triple-A Tucson this season. Bet the Padres on the Run Line Thursday.
06-08-11	Detroit Tigers v. Texas Rangers -1.5		3-7	Win	121	9 h 17 m	Show
15* MLB Run Line Play of the Day on Texas Rangers -1.5 +121 After getting outscored 21-8 in losing the first two games of this series to the Detroit Tigers, I fully expect the Texas Rangers to bounce back in a big way in Game 3. They send perhaps the most underrated starter in all of baseball to the mound tonight in Alexi Ogando. This guy has been lights out, going 6-0 with a 2.20 ERA and 0.882 WHIP in 11 starts this season. Ogando is 4-0 with a 2.06 ERA and 0.992 WHIP in six home starts this year, which is even more impressive considering Arlington is a hitter-friendly park. Ogando faced Detroit earlier this season on 4/11/2011, pitching 7 shutout innings while allowing only 3 base runners to get the win in a 2-0 Texas victory. The Tigers are 2-11 after having won 8 or more of their last 10 games over the last 3 seasons, losing in this spot by 2.5 RPG. The Tigers are 17-39 in their last 56 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Detroit is 1-4 in Phil Coke's last 5 road starts. The Rangers are 6-0 in their last 6 games after losing the first 2 games of a series. Texas is 8-1 in their last 9 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Roll with the Rangers on the Run Line Wednesday.
06-05-11	Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 v. Pittsburgh Pirates	Top	7-3	Win	100	4 h 52 m	Show
25* NL Run Line GAME OF THE YEAR on Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -107 After losing the first two games of this series to the Pittsburgh Pirates, I fully expect the Phillies to win Game 3 Sunday in blowout fashion behind Ace Roy Halladay. Look for this one to be over by the end of the 5th inning. Halladay is having another Cy Young-caliber year, going 7-3 with a 2.56 ERA and 1.073 WHIP in 12 starts this season. Meanwhile, James McDonald has been one of the worst starters for Pittsburgh, going 3-3 with a 4.85 ERA and 1.483 WHIP in 11 starts. Halladay is 1-1 with a 1.13 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in three career starts against Pittsburgh. Halladay is 61-19 as a favorite of -175 to -250 since 1997. His teams are winning in this spot by an average of 5.7 to 3.1 RPG. The Phillies are 7-0 in Halladay's last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Philly is 9-1 in Halladay's last 10 starts with 5 days of rest. The Phillies are 22-6 in Halladay's last 28 starts overall. Halladay will rise to the occasion and salvage this series for his team. Bet the Phillies on the Run Line Sunday.
06-01-11	San Diego Padres v. Atlanta Braves -1.5		3-4	Loss	-100	9 h 58 m	Show
15* MLB Run Line Play of the Day on Atlanta Braves -1.5 +130 After losing the first two games of this series to San Diego, I like the Atlanta Braves to bounce back with a blowout home victory in Game 3. They have a huge edge on the mound tonight with Tommy Hanson over Clayton Richard. Hanson is 5-4 with a 2.80 ERA and 1.072 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 3-2 with a 2.29 ERA and 1.019 WHIP in six home starts. Richard is 2-5 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.424 WHIP in 11 starts this year, including 2-2 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.545 WHIP in six road starts. What I really like about this play is the head-to-head numbers. Hanson is 3-0 with a 1.78 ERA and 1.145 WHIP in four career starts against San Diego and the Braves have won those three games all by four runs or more. Richard is 0-3 with a 7.91 ERA and 2.123 WHIP in three career starts against Atlanta, and the Padres have lost all three of those games by 5 runs or more. The Padres are 1-7 in Richard's last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Braves are 8-1 in their last 9 during game 3 of a series. Atlanta is 35-16 in their last 51 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Roll with the Braves on the Run Line Wednesday.
05-22-11	Chicago Cubs v. Boston Red Sox -1.5	Top	1-5	Win	101	9 h 14 m	Show
20* ESPN Sunday Night Baseball No-Brainer on Boston Red Sox -1.5 +101 Chicago's Jake Russell has been one of the worst starters in the league all season. Now he's up against one of the hottest line-ups in baseball and is in line to get rocked once again Sunday night. Russell is 1-4 with a 6.26 ERA and 1.565 WHIP on the season, including 0-4 with a 10.04 ERA and 2.022 WHIP as a starter. Boston has won seven of their last eight overall while scoring a combined 48 runs in the process. Chicago is 7-21 after scoring 8 runs or more over the last 2 seasons, getting outscored by 2.3 RPG in this spot. The Cubs are 8-24 in their last 32 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record. Chicago is 9-25 in their last 34 during game 3 of a series. The Red Sox are 77-29 in their last 106 interleague games. Boston is 16-5 in Tim Wakefield's last 21 interleague starts. Boston is 6-0 in their last six Sunday games. Roll with the Red Sox on the Run Line Sunday.
05-20-11	Chicago Cubs v. Boston Red Sox -1.5		5-15	Win	104	6 h 57 m	Show
15* Interleague Run Line Play of the Day on Boston Red Sox -1.5 +104 The Boston Red Sox have finally gotten their act together. Boston is 9-2 in their last 11 games overall and I like their chances to get a blowout victory tonight behind Ace Jon Lester. The lefty is 5-1 with a 3.28 ERA on the season, and he's 5-0 with a 3.05 ERA in his last six overall outings. He has a 1.38 ERA while striking out 16 in 13 innings to win his last two at home. Lester is also 7-2 with a 2.66 ERA in 13 career interleague starts. Doug Davis (0-1, 1.80) makes his second start for the Cubs after he allowed three runs - one earned - and four hits in five innings of a 3-0 loss to San Francisco on Saturday in his Chicago debut. This guy was sent down to the minor leagues for a reason, and that is because he is washed up. Davis has posted a 4.12 ERA or higher in each of his last five seasons dating back to 2006. The Cubs are 7-23 in their last 30 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Red Sox are 25-5 in their last 30 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record. The Red Sox are 42-13 in Lester's last 55 home starts. Boston has won six straight at home. Take the Red Sox on the Run Line Friday.
05-13-11	San Diego Padres v. Colorado Rockies -1.5		7-12	Win	136	8 h 18 m	Show
15* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado Rockies -1.5 +136 The Colorado Rockies are hungry and motivated for a victory after losing their last two games to the Mets, and dropping six of their last seven overall. A series with the San Diego Padres should get them right back on track, starting with Game 1 tonight. The Rockies send their Ace to the mound in Jorge De La Rosa, who has been nothing short of spectacular this season. De La Rosa is 4-1 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.116 WHIP in seven starts this year, including 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA and 0.811 WHIP in two home starts. The Rockies are 6-0 in De La Rosa's last six starts against San Diego, winning five of those contests by 2 runs or more. That's why they are showing such excellent value on the run line tonight. De La Rosa is 15-1 as a home favorite of -150 to -200 since 1997. The Rockies are winning in this spot by 3.9 RPG. Roll with the Rockies on the Run Line Friday.
05-12-11	Kansas City Royals v. New York Yankees -1.5	Top	11-5	Loss	-100	18 h 3 m	Show
20* AL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 +105 I'm going to back the New York Yankees to beat the Kansas City Royals by two runs or more Thursday. The Yankees lost 4-3 to the Royals in extra innings last night despite getting 12 hits to Kansas City's 4. They stranded a ton of runners, but I look for New York to get those runners in tonight as they tee off on Sean O'Sullivan. I also expect Ivan Nova to shut down this Kansas City line-up and continue pitching well. NOva is 3-1 with a 3.90 ERA in six starts this season, including 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA in his last three starts. Nova has faced three tough line-ups in his last three starts as well, limiting the likes of the Rangers, Blue Jays and White Sox to just 3 earned runs in 20 innings. O'Sullivan is 1-2 with a 6.06 ERA in three career starts against New York. The Royals are 8-33 after allowing 3 runs or less 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons, losing by 2.2 RPG in this spot. Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Thursday.
05-09-11	New York Mets v. Colorado Rockies -1.5		1-2	Loss	-100	20 h 41 m	Show
15* NL Run Line Play of the Day on Colorado Rockies -1.5 +121 After getting swept by the San Francisco Giants over the weekend, the Colorado Rockies return home very hungry and motivated for a victory. I believe they get back on the winning track in blowout fashion tonight against the New York Mets. With such a huge edge on the mound, their chances of winning this one by 2 runs or more are very high. Jhoulys Chacin is 4-2 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.146 WHIP in six starts this season, including 2-1 with a 1.17 ERA and 0.913 WHIP in three home starts. What Chacin has done at home is even more impressive considering he pitches in hitter-friendly Coors Field. This guy has only allowed 3 earned runs and 21 base runners in 23 innings at Coors this season. Chris Capuano has been atrocious, going 2-3 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.609 WHIP this season. Capuano has given up 19 earned runs and 51 base runners in 31 2/3 innings. Capuano has allowed 16 earned runs over 13 2/3 innings in his last three starts against colorado. He gave up 7 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings of a 4-9 loss to the Rockies on 4/14/2011. Colorado is 7-0 vs. poor defensive catchers - allowing 0.85 + SB's/game this season, winning in this spot by 2.3 RPG. Take the Rockies on the Run Line Monday.
05-07-11	Minnesota Twins v. Boston Red Sox -1.5		0-4	Win	127	2 h 53 m	Show
15* AL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 +127 After getting blown out by the Minnesota Twins last night, I look for the Boston Red Sox to return the favor Saturday. I can't see the Red Sox losing four in a row at Fenway as they'll be highly motivated for a victory because of it. Clay Buchholz is 2-1 with a 3.37 ERA in his last three starts. Boston is 73-32 in home games after scoring 4 runs or less 3 straight games since 1997. Minnesota is 4-17 in road games vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. They are losing in this spot by 2.8 RPG. Roll with the Red Sox on the Run Line Saturday.
04-30-11	Pittsburgh Pirates v. Colorado Rockies -1.5		1-4	Win	126	21 h 3 m	Show
15* NL Saturday Run Line Rout on Colorado Rockies -1.5 +126 After getting shut out in a 3-0 loss to the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates last night, I expect the Colorado Rockies to bounce back in a big way Saturday. That's because of the edge they have on the mound tonight in Jason Hammel over Paul Maholm. Hammel is 2-1 with a 3.80 ERA on the season, including 1-1 with a 2.89 ERA in his last three starts. Maholm is 1-3 with a 3.90 ERA on the year, and 1-2 with a 5.09 ERA in his last three outings. Where the big edge lies with the Rockies is in the head-to-head numbers. Maholm is 1-7 with a 6.84 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in nine career starts against Colorado, and the Pirates are 1-8 in those nine games. Pittsburgh has lost six of those nine contests by 2 runs or more. The Rockies are 2-0 in Hammel's two career starts against Pittsburgh, winning by multiple runs both times. The Pirates are 5-27 vs. a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities over the last 2 seasons. They are losing in this spot by 2.7 RPG. The Pirates are 2-18 vs. an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better over the last 2 seasons, losing by 3.3 RPG. Roll with the Rockies on the Run Line Saturday.
04-29-11	Seattle Mariners v. Boston Red Sox -1.5	Top	5-4	Loss	-100	6 h 15 m	Show
20* AL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 +115 I'm siding with the Boston Red Sox on the Run Line Friday as they take on the Seattle Mariners at Fenway Park in Game 1 of this series. Daisuke Matsuzaka has settled down after a slow start to the season. He has been nearly untouchable in his last two starts, going 2-0 while allowing just 2 hits and 4 walks in 15 shutout innings. You heard that right folks, he has given up no earned runs and only six base runners in 15 innings against the Angels and Blue Jays. Jason Vargas is 0-2 with a 5.53 ERA and 1.373 WHIP in five starts this season for Seattle. He is going to struggle once again against a Red Sox team that is hitting .276 and scoring 5.7 RPG at home this year. The Mariners are 0-4 in Vargas' last 4 starts, getting outscored by 8, 5, 5, and 9 runs, respectively. Now you can see why the Red Sox are showing so much value on the Run Line tonight. Boston is 23-5 in home games with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 1.50 the last 5 games over the last 3 seasons, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.5 RPG in this spot. Bet the Red Sox on the Run Line.
04-27-11	Oakland A's v. Los Angeles Angels -1.5		2-1	Loss	-100	17 h 27 m	Show
15* AL Wednesday Play of the Day on Los Angeles Angels -1.5 +134 Instead of laying heavy juice on the Angels Wednesday, I'm going to take the value in this game which is on the Run Line. Dan Haren has been one of the elite starters in the league this season and Tyson Ross is clearly overmatched. Haren is 4-1 with a 1.46 ERA and 0.757 WHIP in five starts this year, allowing just 6 runs, 23 hits and 5 walks in 37 innings while striking out 33. Ross is 1-2 with a 4.82 ERA and 1.720 WHIP on the season for the Oakland A's. Ross is 0-1 with a 7.36 ERA in his career as a starter against the Angels. Haren is 2-0 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.050 WHIP in three career starts against Oakland. The A's are only hitting .230 and scoring 3.1 RPG against right-handed starters this season. The Angels are 70-38 in day games over the last 3 seasons. Oakland is 0-12 in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better over the last 3 seasons, getting outscored 1.9 to 6.2 on average. Roll with the Angels on the Run Line Wednesday.
04-27-11	Chicago White Sox v. New York Yankees -1.5		1-3	Win	135	17 h 27 m	Show
15* AL No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 +135 After losing the first two games of this series to the Chicago White Sox, I'm backing the New York Yankees to get revenge in a big way in Game 3. New York has the edge on the mound tonight and should be licking their chops at the opportunity to face Mark Buehrle. Bartolo Colon has pitched very well in the early going, with a 1-1 record, 3.50 ERA and 1.167 WHIP. Colon also has 20 strikeouts in 18 innings of work. Buerhle is 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.389 WHIP in five starts this season, including 1-1 with an 8.10 ERA and 1.740 WHIP in three road starts. Buehrle is 1-7 with a 6.68 ERA and 1.747 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Yankees. The White Sox are 1-10 in those 11 games, and New York has won by 2 runs or more all 10 times! This makes for a 91% run line system working in their favor. Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Wednesday.
04-27-11	Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 v. Arizona Diamondbacks		8-4	Win	115	14 h 2 m	Show
15* NL Wednesday Play of the Day on Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 +115 After dropping the first two games of this series to Arizona, I fully expect Philly to have their revenge in a big way tonight. The Phillies have a huge edge on the mound tonight with Cole Hamels over Joe Saunders. Hamels is 2-1 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.216 ERA this season, including 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.800 WHIP in two road starts. Saunders is 0-2 with a 4.98 ERA and 1.754 WHIP this year, including 0-1 with an 8.38 ERA and 2.585 WHIP in two home starts. Saunders has allowed 9 runs, 18 hits and 7 walks in 9 2/3 innings at home this year. The Phillies are 4-1 in Hamels 5 career starts against Arizona, where he sports a 3.69 ERA and 1.263 WHIP. Philly is 35-18 in road games against left-handed starters over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average score of 5.6 to 3.6. Arizona is 15-41 vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better over the last 2 seasons, losing by an average score of 3.6 to 5.8. Take Philly on the Run Line Wednesday.
04-17-11	Toronto Blue Jays v. Boston Red Sox -1.5		1-8	Win	100	3 h 43 m	Show
15* AL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 -106 The Boston Red Sox got back on track yesterday with a 4-1 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays. I look for them to post back-to-back victories for the first time this season in blowout fashion Sunday. Red Sox starter Jon Lester is 10-1 against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season. Not only are the Red Sox winning in this spot, they are outscoring opponents by 3.2 RPG in this situation. Boston is 25-6 against the money line after 7 or more consecutive home games over the last 3 seasons. The Sox are outscoring opponents by 2.1 RPG in this spot as well. Lester sports a 3.72 ERA and 1.138 WHIP through 3 starts this year. He is 7-4 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.193 WHIP in 13 career starts against Toronto. Roll with the Red Sox on the Run Line Sunday.
04-11-11	Tampa Bay Rays v. Boston Red Sox -1.5		16-5	Loss	-100	17 h 24 m	Show
15* Rays/Red Sox ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Boston Red Sox -1.5 +134 Boston looks like they've finally turned the corner after taking 2 of 3 games from the New York Yankees over the weekend. I fully expect the Red Sox to build off of their performance in that series, and to take it out on the lowly Tampa Bay Rays starting with Game 1 Monday. Tampa Bay has easily been the worst team in baseball in the early going. I predicted them to have a down year after losing the likes of Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Jason Bartlett, Rafael Soriano and Matt Garza this offseason. Their best hitter, Evan Longoria, remains on the 15-day DL. Now, Manny Ramirez has retired and he was arguably their second-best hitter. This team is just in shambles right now. Tampa is 1-8 on the year, hitting a woeful .163 while scoring 2.2 RPG. Boston finally got their offense going at Fenway Park, hitting .321 and scoring 5.7 RPG in their series with the Yankees. Tampa is 0-7 against right-handed starters this season, getting outscored by 3.2 RPG. Bet Boston on the Run Line Monday.
09-28-10	Baltimore Orioles v. Tampa Bay Rays -1.5	Top	0-5	Win	100	6 h 27 m	Show
20* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 -114 After back-to-back losses to the Mariners and Orioles, I fully expect the Rays to bounce back with a blowout victory tonight over the lowly Baltimore Orioles. With David Price on the mound, all Tampa Bay will need is a few runs to win by 2 runs or more. Price is 18-6 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.217 WHIP this season, including 8-2 with a 2.11 ERA and 1.069 WHIP In his last 3 starts. Price is 3-0 with a 2.59 ERA in 4 career starts vs. Baltimore, with the Rays going a perfect 4-0 in those four games while winning by 2 runs or more three times. Bradley Bergesen is just 8-10 with a 4.95 ERA and 1.468 WHIP in 26 starts this season for Baltimore. He has really struggled against the Rays, going 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA and 2.214 WHIP in 3 career starts vs. Tampa Bay. Bergesen has allowed 14 earned runs, 31 base runners and 4 home runs in 14 innings in those three outings. Price is 18-4 against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons, and the Rays are winning in this spot by 3.0 RPG on average. Roll with the Rays on the Run Line Tuesday.
09-20-10	Cleveland Indians v. Minnesota Twins -1.5		3-9	Win	108	8 h 24 m	Show
15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins -1.5 +108 I see Minnesota winning this game by 2 runs or more with ease Monday. With Brian Duensing on the mounds, the Twins won't need many runs to win by 2 or more tonight. The left-hander was outstanding out of the bullpen in the first half (2-1, 1.62 ERA) and he's been almost as good in the rotation since the All-Star break. Duensing improved to 6-1 with a 2.25 ERA in his last 10 starts by holding the White Sox to two runs over six innings in a 9-3 win Wednesday. Cleveland starter Jeanmar Gomez is 0-4 in this last 4 starts, and he allowed 7 runs in three innings in a 7-0 loss to the Angels his last time out. Minnesota is 14-3 against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 3 or less batters per start this season. The Twins are winning in this spot by 2.1 RPG. Duensing is 3-0 with a 0.57 ERA and 0.884 WHIP in 4 home starts this year, allowing 2 earned runs and 28 base runners in 31.2 innings. Take the Twins on the Run Line.
09-17-10	Washington Nationals v. Philadelphia Phillies -1.5		1-9	Win	100	8 h 27 m	Show
15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -114 The Phillies are rolling right now, and I'll continue backing them Friday to beat the Washington Nationals by 2 runs or more. Philly is 8-1 in their last 9 games, winning six of those contests by more than 2 runs. Roy Oswalt is 3-0 witha 1.61 ERA and 0.851 WHIP in his last 3 starts, and the Phillies have won each of those games by 3 runs or more. In fact, the Phillies are 8-0 in Oswalt's last 8 starts, winning six of those games by 2 runs or more. Jason Marquis is one of the worst starters in baseball this season. Marquis is 2-8 with a 6.60 ERA and 1.662 WHIP in 10 starts this year. The righty is 5-6 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.777 WHIP In 15 career starts vs. Philadelphia. He certainly struggles against this potent Phillies line-up, one that is finally healthy and putting up runs. Oswalt is 13-0 against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons, and his teams are winning in this spot by 3.5 RPG. Take the Phillies on the Run Line Friday.

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