Winning Sports Picks

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on California +11.5

Justin Wilcox is one of the most underrated head coaches in college football.  He improved Cal from 5-7 in his first season to 7-6 in his second season and 8-5 in his third season.  Then Cal got a late start last season due to COVID and their first game was against UCLA, which was scheduled just three days prior to playing it.

Cal went on the road with a defensive line that wasn't able to practice with the team for two weeks and loss.  Then they lost by 4 to Oregon State and had a PAT blocked in a 1-point loss to Stanford.  After the 0-3 start, the Bears showed some heart with their upset win over Oregon in their finale.  The Ducks went on to win the Pac-12.

Cal has now had a normal spring and is off to a way better start than they were last season because of it.  Wilcox welcomes back 17 starters, and 28 of 33 players who made starts last season.  This will be one of the best defenses in the country, and the offense should be the best of the Wilcox era behind third-year starting QB Chase Garbers and nine returning starters on offense.

I think we're getting good value on Cal this week after getting upset by Nevada at home last week.  But Nevada is one of the best teams in the Mountain West with an NFL QB in Carson Strong, who led the Wolf Pack to a 22-17 victory.  The Bears holding that offense to 22 points is no small feat.  And because of their defense they just tend to play in close, low-scoring games.  I expect more of the same here against TCU.

The Horned Frogs made easy work of Duquesne 45-3 last week.  But they were 42-point favorites so they didn't even cover against one of the worst FCS teams in the country.  I think the fact that Cal play a legit opponent in the opener will have them more prepared for this game than TCU will be after playing Duquesne.

California is a sensational 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games as a road underdog of 10.5 to 14 points.  California is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 games as an underdog.  The Golden Bears are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as road underdogs.  The Horned Frogs are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games as home favorites.  This is simply too many points.  Roll with California Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Georgia Southern +7

Georgia Southern is a sleeper in the underrated Sun Belt Conference this season.  Chad Lunsford is in his 5th season here and has gone 10-3, 7-6 and 8-5 over the past three seasons.  Four of their five losses last year came by one score with the only exception being their 14-point loss to Coastal Carolina, which was the best team in the conference last year and nearly went unbeaten.

They lost at Louisiana by 2, at Army by 1, at Georgia State by 6 and to Appalachian State by 8.  Those were four very good teams last year that all made bowl games.  So their only losses last year came to bowl teams.  Now Lunsford has 16 returning starters with eight on both sides of the ball to work with in 2021.

I think the fact that Georgia Southern only won 30-25 as a 28.5-point favorite against Gardner Webb last week has them undervalued coming into this week.  They are a triple-option team built for close games.  They rushed for 365 yards on Gardner Webb and will certainly be able to run the ball on Florida Atlantic here to keep this game close, possibly pulling off the upset.

Willie Taggart has been a big disappointment, failing at Oregon and Florida State before coming here to Florida Atlantic last year.  He had to fill the big shoes left behind by Lane Kiffin and didn't do a very good job.  The Owls went just 5-4 last year with their only wins coming against Charloote, WKU, FIU, UMass and UTSA.

One of their losses last season came to Georgia Southern by a final of 20-3.  Georgia Southern rushed for 269 yards on them in the win.  And they should have similar success here, especially after Florida Atlantic just allowed 400 rushing yards on 46 carries in a 35-14 loss to Florida last week.  They are beat up from that physical loss, and they only get a week to prepare for the Eagles' triple-option this week.

Florida Atlantic is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 games as a home favorite of 7 points or less, including 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.  The Eagles are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss.  The Owls are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games vs. Sun Belt opponents.  Take Georgia Southern Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers -2

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are a team I'm high on in the Big Ten.  The Syracuse Orange are a team I'm way down on in the ACC.  So it makes sense that I'm on Rutgers here where they basically just have to win the game as 2-point favorites to cover.

It's a team that went 3-6 in Greg Schiano's first season last year but was competitive in every game.  Now they return 21 starters and I just think Schiano is one of the best coaches in the country.  The Scarlet Knights are off to a great start with their 61-14 beat down of Temple.

Clearly it was a misleading final as they won the turnover battle 5-0.  But they were dominant nonetheless and could be vanilla on offense not having to show much.  They held Temple to 8-of-27 passing in the win.

Syracuse did pick up a good win itself in a 29-9 victory at Ohio last week.  And I think the Orange are now getting some respect from oddsmakers after that upset victory.  But that win was also misleading as Syracuse only outgained Ohio by 39 yards.  That's a down Ohio team this season as well.

Syracuse went 1-10 last year and were outgained by nearly 200 yards per game, and I don't expect them to be much better this year.  So we're getting a middle of the pack team from the Big Ten up against a bottom feeder in the ACC, and I'll take the Big Ten in this matchup almost every time.

Syracuse is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games off an upset win as an underdog by 14 points or more.  Dino Babers is 0-6 ATS after allowing 9 points or less as the coach of Syracuse.  The Scarlet Knights are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.  The Orange are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win.  Bet Rutgers Saturday.

15* WKU/Army CFB Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 51.5

Western Kentucky clearly wants to chuck it around the yard this season and score some points.  That was evident in their 59-21 win over Tennessee-Martin in the opener.  Houston Baptist transfer QB Bailey Zappe is the real deal.  He threw for over 10,000 yards and 78 touchdowns in his four years there.

Zappe went 28-of-35 for 424 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception in the opener.  The Hilltoppers threw for 478 yards as a team.  And they should be able to move the ball through the air at will on this Army defense, which isn't used to preparing for these types of wide open passing attacks.

Conversely, Army should be able to run the ball at will on this soft WKU defense that allowed 201 rushing yards on 34 carries to Tennessee-Martin last week.  Army rushed for 258 yards in its 43-10 win over Georgia State in the opener.  The Black Knights are up against an inexperienced Hilltoppers defense that returned just four starters this season.

Western Kentucky is 16-4 OVER in its last 20 games after gaining 375 or more passing yards in its last game.  The OVER is 4-0 in Hilltoppers last four games overall.  The OVER is 10-4-1 in Black Knights last 15 September games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* UTEP/Boise State FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on UTEP +26

The UTEP Miners finally have some stability as they have stuck with head coach Dana Dimel.  After going 1-11 in each of his first two seasons, Dimel guided the Miners to a 3-5 season last year.  They were competitive in every game outside their losses to Texas from the Big 12 and the best team in Conference USA in UTSA.

Now Dimel is in his fourth season and brings back 19 starters this season, including all 11 on offense.  And the Miners are off to an impressive 2-0 start.  They beat New Mexico 30-3 as 9.5-point road favorites, racking up 452 total yards and outgaining the Aggies by 262 yards.  Then they beat Bethune-Cookman 38-28 last week, racking up 473 total yards and outgaining them by 140 yards.

The win over New Mexico State looks even better now after the Aggies went into San Diego State last week and outgained a very good Aztecs team by 11 yards.  They gained 374 yards on a very good San Diego State defense after only managing 190 yards against UTEP.  So this is a big 'buy on' sign on the Miners.

Boise State failed to win the Mountain West last year.  Head coach Bryan Harsin bolted for Auburn.  That leaves Andy Avalos to try and pick up the pieces.  He was the defensive coordinator at Oregon the past two seasons.  And I just think this is a Boise State program that is finally on the decline under Avalos.

The 31-36 loss to UCF last week was extremely misleading.  Boise State only managed 283 yards against UCF and was outgained by 290 yards after giving up 573 total yards to the Knights.  The Broncos managed just 20 rushing yards on 26 attempts, and they gave up 255 rushing yards on 48 attempts.  

I think UTEP can run on this Boise State defense and shorten the game.  The Miners are averaging 246 rushing yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry through two weeks.  QB Davin Hardison has played well, completing 64.1% of his passes for 432 yards with three touchdowns and only one interception while averaging 11 yards per attempt.  Hardison can make some plays if he has to.

The Miners are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as underdogs.  UTEP is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.  Boise State is 1-4 ATS in its last five games off an ATS win.  Keep in mind this is a tough spot for Boise coming off that huge game against UCF and with Oklahoma State on deck next week, making this a sandwich spot.  Bet UTEP Friday.

20* Louisville/Ole Miss ESPN No-Brainer on Ole Miss -9

I have high hopes for the Ole Miss Rebels this season.  They did great to get to 5-5 in Lane Kiffin's first season last year after a win over Indiana in their bowl game.  They gave Alabama their toughest game of the season as it was tied 42-42 in the 4th quarter to flash their potential.

Now Kiffin welcomes back 17 starters and some of the best talent in the entire country thanks to the job he has done in recruiting plus what was done before he got there.  The offense is going to be one of the best in the country after averaging 39.2 points and 556 yards per game last season.  Eight starters are back including QB Matt Corral, who completed 79.9% of his passes for 3,337 yards and 29 touchdowns last year, while also rushing for 506 yards and four scores.

The offense will get their points, and the defense should be one of the most improved in the land with nine starters back.  They will be much better conditioned to deal with all the plays they have to face due to their quick-paces offense.  Ole Miss had to face 77 plays per game last year and should be in better shape to deal with it this year.

Louisville took a big step back in Scott Satterfield's second season last year, which is a bad sign.  After going 8-5 in 2019 they slipped to 4-7 last year.  Their four wins came against Western Kentucky, FSU, Syracuse and Wake Forest in four games they were favored in.  And now they have just 13 starters back, which is a low amount compared to most teams in this aberration season.  

They lost three of their biggest playmakers on offense.  WR's Dre Fitzpatrick and Tutu Atwell are gone after combining for 89 receptions, 1,458 yards and 10 touchdowns last season.  Leading rusher Javian Hawkins (822 yards, 7 TD, 6.2/carry) is also gone.  Five of the top seven tacklers have departed on defense as well, which is going to make the task of stopping Ole Miss' offense in the opener a daunting one.  Bet Ole Miss Monday.

15* Notre Dame/FSU ABC ANNIHILATOR on Florida State +7

The Florida State Seminoles are primed to make a big leap forward in head coach Mike Norvell's second season.  He stepped into a difficult situation last year and had just three spring practices to get his team ready.  At the end of the year due to opt outs, transfer and injuries, Norvell had just 50 scholarship players to work with.

The talent is definitely there at Florida State now.  Norvell has 17 returning starters and another great recruiting class.  I think this is the year the Seminoles finally start to turn things around since Jimbo Fisher left, and it starts in Week 1 against Notre Dame.  Norvell is an offensive genius, and he has 10 returning starters on offense plus brings in UCF transfer McKenzie Milton at quarterback.

Notre Dame loses almost everyone from the team that went 10-2 last season and made the four-team playoff.  They have just nine starters back in all, which is very low for this season in particular compared to every other team.  They must replace nine NFL draft picks, including QB Ian Book, who set a career ND record with 30 wins.  

There's a reason QB Jack Coan was replaced as the starter at Wisconsin, and he is a big downgrade from Book.  And he'll be working with four new starters alone the offensive line.  It will be a rough start to the season offensively.  The defense should still be solid, but it's worth noting they did allow 31 or more points in four of their final six games last year.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Florida State) - a bad defensive team from last season that allowed 425 or more yards per game, with eight or more offensive starters plus the QB returning in the first month of the season are 57-25 (69.5%) ATS since 1992.  Take Florida State Sunday.

15* Nevada/Cal FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on California -3

Justin Wilcox is one of the most underrated head coaches in college football.  He improved Cal from 5-7 in his first season to 7-6 in his second season and 8-5 in his third season.  Then Cal got a late start last season due to COVID and their first game was against UCLA, which was scheduled just three days prior to playing it.

Cal went on the road with a defensive line that wasn't able to practice with the team for two weeks and loss.  Then they lost by 4 to Oregon State and had a PAT blocked in a 1-point loss to Stanford.  After the 0-3 start, the Bears showed some heart with their upset win over Oregon in their finale.  The Ducks went on to win the Pac-12.

Cal has now had a normal spring and is off to a way better start than they were last season because of it.  Wilcox welcomes back 17 starters, and 28 of 33 players who made starts last season.  This will be one of the best defenses in the country, and the offense should be the best of the Wilcox era behind third-year starting QB Chase Garbers and nine returning starters on offense.

Nevada is getting a lot of hype coming into the season.  The Wolf Pack went 7-2 last season, but it came against what turned out to be a very weak Mountain West.  They had one-score wins over Wyoming, New Mexico and San Diego State.  The other four wins came against UNLV, Fresno State and Tulane.  And they lost their toughest game to San Jose State in the Mountain West Championship Game.

No question the Wolf Pack have a great offense and great QB in Carson Strong.  But they are a flashy team.  Cal's defense will be up to the task, and a bigger concern for Nevada is a defense that allowed 599 yards to Fresno State and 506 yards to San Jose State in their final two games of the regular season last year.

Cal is undefeated in regular season non-conference games under Wilcox, going a perfect 9-0 SU with wins over the likes of Ole Miss (twice), UNC (twice) and BYU.  The Golden Bears lead the all-time series with Nevada 22-3-1.   Roll with California Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on South Alabama ML -115

South Alabama is definitely a sleeper in what has turned out to be a very underrated Sun Belt Conference this season.  Louisiana, Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State proved last year that the Sun Belt is no joke.  And the Jaguars are definitely flying under the radar this year in that conference.

First-year head coach Kan Wommack spent the last two years as the defensive coordinator at Indiana.  He is a familiar face here as he was the defensive coordinator for the Jaguars previously.  Wommack finished as a finalist for the Broyles Award last year, which goes to the top assistant coach.  He brings with him offensive coordinator Major Applewhite, the former Houston head coach.

Wommack has 17 returning starters to work with and a ton of talent.  He brought in Utah transfer Jake Bentley to start at quarterback.  He also brought in Mississippi State transfer Kareem Walker at running back, who was one of the top recruits in the country coming out of high school.  RG James Jackson is a Mississippi State transfer, and WR Allen Dailey is a Kentucky transfer.

The Jaguars already boast one of the conference's best receivers in Jalen Tolbert, who had 64 receptions for 1,085 yards and eight touchdowns in 11 games last year.  They have one of the best defensive lines in the Sun Belt.  And keep in mind they beat what at the time was a healthy Southern Miss team outright as 13-point underdogs in the opener last year.

Speaking of Southern Miss, the Golden Eagles are on the decline.  They went just 3-7 last year and went through three different head coaches.  They settled on former Tulane offensive coordinator Will Hall as their new head coach.  He does inherit 17 returning starters, but there are a ton of questions surrounding this team.

There is no proven QB to turn to here at Southern Miss as they lose their top two from last year.  The defense is a problem after allowing 32.3 points and 181 rushing yards per game last year.  This defense gave up 32 points and 526 total yards to South Alabama last year.

The Jaguars are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games, including 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games as home favorites.  The Golden Eagles are 0-6 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  Bet South Alabama on the money line Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Louisiana Tech +23.5

Skip Holtz is one of the most underrated college football head coaches in the country.  He hasn't had a losing season here since his first year in 2013.  He rarely has many returning starters as he tends to find some gems in the transfer portal.  He has had 15 or fewer returning starters in all eight seasons in Ruston and 13 or fewer in seven of them.

Now Holtz welcomes back 17 starters from a team that was ravaged by COVID last year.  They opened 5-3 last year including an upset of UAB before a their depleted team lost their final two games.  They had a patchwork offensive line and it just wasn't pretty down the stretch for them with games cancelled due to COVID.

10 starters are back on defense on what should be one of the most improved units in the country.  Remember, LA Tech allowed 21.8 PPG, 23.0 PPG and 25.4 PPG their previous three seasons before giving up 34.7 PPG last year with just one returning starter on D.  They only had 6 returning starters in all last year.  They get DE Willie Baker back after sitting out last year and he is probably their best player defensively.

Offensively, the Bulldogs should get back to the high-powered offenses of the past.  They averaged at least 30 PPG in five of their previous six seasons before falling to 26.7 PPG last year.  They have seven returning starters on offense and add in WVU transfer Austin Kendall at quarterback, who is getting the start for the opener.

Kendall backed up two straight Heisman trophy winners at Oklahoma in Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray.  He was the starter for WVU in 2019 with a terrible cast around him and a first-year head coach.  Kendall and has thrown for 2,418 yards with 17 TD's and 10 INT's in his collegiate career.  He sat behind Jarrett Doege last year, but replaced him in the second half of WVU's bowl game to lead a comeback win over Army and threw for 121 yards and two touchdowns.  That performance will have him coming into 2021 with a ton of confidence.

I'm way down on Mississippi State this year.  The Bulldogs went 4-7 in Mike Leach's first season with their only win against a team with a winning record coming against Tulsa in a 2-point win in the bowl game.  But they were outgained by 213 yards by Tulsa in that bowl game and it was a fluke win.   They didn't win any games by more than 19 points last year.

Asking Mississippi State to beat LA Tech by 24-plus points to cover is asking too much.  No question they will be improved in Mike Leach's second season, but they had all season to try and get better last year and it really didn't happen.  And they had 20 players hit the transfer portal in the offseason as many guys did not like Leach's 'my way or the highway' approach.

The Air Raid offense can only be better after averaging just 21.4 PPG last year.  But I like the fact that Skip Holtz is familiar with this offense and has all offseason to prepare his team for it.  I think Louisiana Tech will get enough stops in this one, and they'll be able to put up enough points offensively behind Kendall to keep them within this 23.5-point spread for four quarters.  Bet Louisiana Tech Saturday.

15* WVU/Maryland Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on West Virginia -2.5

Neal Brown did big things at Troy before coming here with three straight double-digit win seasons.  It was a rebuilding year in his first season in 2019 with just seven returning starters.  But he brought back 14 starters last year and the Mountaineers were much better, going 6-4 in his second season.  The 3rd season is when head coaches usually make their biggest leaps, and that should be the case with the Mountaineers in 2020.

West Virginia returns 17 starters.  Eight are back from one of the best defenses in the country that allowed just 20.5 points and 291 yards per game last season.  Nine starters are back on offense from a unit that put up 413 yards per game last year.  So they outgained their opponents by 122 yards per game last year and were even better than their 6-4 record would indicate.

I think Taulia Tagovailoa being the brother of Miami Dolphins QB Tua has Maryland overhyped.  He was not very good as a freshman with a 7-to-7 TD/INT ratio.  He does have some good receivers to throw to, but I just think the Terrapins are a flashy offensive team that everyone likes.

The problem with the Terrapins is the defense, which gave up 32.0 points and 430 yards per game last season.  They could not stop the run as they gave up 230 rushing yards per game.  They are starting five underclassmen on the offensive line, so they are very weak in the trenches on both sides of the ball.  WVU will have the advantage at the point of attack on both sides, which is a big reason I like them to win and cover here.

Maryland hasn't had a winning record since 2014 and just can't be trusted.  The Terrapins are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as underdogs.  The Mountaineers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine September games.  West Virginia is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Mountaineers are 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings with all nine wins coming by 3 points or more and seven wins by double-digits.  Take West Virginia Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Fresno State +20.5

I like Fresno State head coach Kalen DeBoer, who took over for Jeff Tedford last year after serving as his offensive coordinator previously.  It didn't go great in Year 1 but they did go 3-3 and will make a huge leap in Year 2.  DeBoer welcomes back 19 starters, a potent offense and an improved defense.

QB Jake Haener is back after completing 64.7% of his passes for 2,021 yards with a 14-to-5 TD/INT ratio in just six games last year.  Ronnie Rivers rushed for 507 yards and 7 TD in five games and made first-team All-Mountain West.  All of his top receivers are back as nine starters return in all on offense.

Where the Bulldogs will be most improved is on defense, where they return 10 starters and each of their top 12 tacklers.  That showed in their opener as they beat Connecticut 45-0 and held the Huskies to just 107 total yards.  And I like the fact that they have a game under their belt already, which should have them being the sharper team here against Oregon early on.

It's generally a good idea to fade Pac-12 teams, and I have no problem doing just that in the right spots.  I think Oregon is being overvalued here in the early going after winning the Pac-12 last year.  But keep in mind they didn't win a single game last year by more than 21 points and found themselves in dog fights each week.

Oregon does have 16 returning starters, including nine on offense and will be good offensively.  But they do lose QB Tyler Shough to the transfer portal, and former Boston College QB Anthony Brown is almost certainly a downgrade.  More concerning is an Oregon defense that brings back just six starters from a unit that allowed 28.3 points and 406 yards per game last year.

Injuries are showing up for Oregon defensively already, too, so Fresno State should be able to match them score for score here.  The secondary injuries are concerning as two projected starters in CB DJ James and S Jamal Hill are both out due to suspension.  The Bulldogs will be able to dice them up through the air, so they'll never be out of it.

Fresno State is 35-17-2 ATS in its last 54 games overall.  The Bulldogs are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games as underdogs.  Fresno State is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. Pac-12 opponents.  The Ducks are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 non-conference games.  Take Fresno State Saturday.

20* UNC/Virginia Tech ESPN No-Brainer on North Carolina -5.5

The North Carolina Tar Heels are going to be one of the best teams in the country this season.  This is Mack Brown's third season here and he has brought in some tremendous recruiting classes each year.  The fruits of his labor should pay off in a big way this season as his team is an ACC and National Title contender.

The Tar Heels went 8-4 last season and had Top 5 Texas A&M on the ropes in their bowl game despite missing several of their best players who sat out to get ready for the NFL Draft.  Now They bring back 18 starters and only lose a couple of those players that sat out at the skill positions.  Sam Howell is one of the best QB's in the country and will be working behind a veteran offensive line, so they will be fine offensively.

What has me really excited about this team is the improvements they should make defensively.  After giving up 29.4 points per game last year, the Tar Heels welcome back 10 starters on defense and this should be their best stop unit in at least a decade.  Many times their offense was asked to win shootouts last season, but that won't be the case nearly as much in 2021.

I'm just not a huge fan of Justin Fuente, and it's hard to trust the Hokies now that legendary defensive coordinator Bud Foster has departed.  We saw what happened to the Hokies in their first season without him last year.  Despite having 10 returning starters on D, Virginia Tech allowed 32.1 points and 447 yards per game.  They gave up 56 points to North Carolina in a loss to them last year.

Offensively, the Hokies lost QB Hendon Hooker to transfer.  He was a great player for them and finished with 620 rushing yards and 9 touchdowns on the ground alone last year, so he will be missed.  They also lose leading rusher Khalil Herbert, who ran for 1,182 yards and 8 touchdowns at 7.7 yards per carry.  Their 15 returning starters is actually among the fewest in the ACC.  Fuente is coming off a 5-6 season and this team is just on the decline.  Bet North Carolina Friday.

20* Ohio State/Minnesota Big Ten No-Brainer on UNDER 63.5

The Ohio State Buckeyes lose a ton of talent on offense this year.  They lost QB Justin Fields and RB Trey Sermon.  They won't be as good as they were offensively the past couple seasons under Fields.  It will take them some time to hit on all cylinders, especially in Week 1.

Ohio State's defense slipped last year and should be improved.  They gave up just 98 rushing yards per game last year but 304 passing.  Their secondary will be one of the most improved in the entire country, and the defensive line is as talented as any in the land.

Minnesota went from giving up 22.5 points per game in 2019 to 30.1 points per game last year.  But they had just four starters back on defense last year and were inexperienced.  Now the Gophers return 10 starters on defense and will be one of the most improved units in the country.

Minnesota wants to slow this game down and run the football to try and keep it competitive.  They have averaged at least 171 rushing yards per game in all four seasons under PJ Fleck, so running the ball has been a priority.  I expect Ohio State to rely on the run as well to try and ease freshman QB CJ Stroud into the season.  

Defenses are usually ahead of the offenses in Week 1 of the season.  That will be the case for both of these teams in 2021 with what they have returning on D.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Hawaii/UCLA College Football Season Opener on UNDER 68

There's not a lot I like in Week 0 college football.  But this play on the UNDER definitely stood out and is worth a bet.  I like to bet UNDERS early in the season because defenses tend to be ahead of offenses.  And I think that will be the case in this game between UCLA and Hawaii.

UCLA should have its best defense of the Chip Kelly era.  His defense improved greatly last season from allowing 34.8 points and 456 yards per game in 2019 to 30.7 points and 410 yards per game in 2020.  And after having just six starters back on defense last year, UCLA welcomes back 10 starters on D in 2021 and should be dominant on this side of the ball.

Offensively, UCLA clearly relies on running the football.  They averaged 231 rushing yards per game last season compared to 224 passing.  That will keep the clock moving and help us cash this UNDER.  Also, it's worth noting UCLA has LSU on deck next week, so if the Bruins get a big lead they will be looking to milk the clock late.  Considering the Bruins are 18-point favorites, they should have a big lead late.

Todd Graham did a good job in his first season in getting Hawaii to 5-4.  They didn't do it with offense as they averaged just 26.2 points per game.  They did it with defense in giving up just 27.6 points per game, the fewest that Hawaii has allowed since 2014.  Now the Rainbow Warriors return all 11 starters on defense and should be even better on that side of the ball.

Offensively, the Warriors also like to run the football as they averaged 152 yards per game on the ground last season and 384 yards per game total.  They have a running QB in Chevan Cordeiro, who led the team in rushing last season.  Well UCLA was stingy against the run last year, yielding 136 yards per game and 3.6 per carry.  Add it all up and we have a solid play on the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Ohio State/Alabama National Championship No-Brainer on UNDER 75

This total is being inflated due to Alabama's offensive numbers on the season and Ohio State's offensive barrage against Clemson that came out of nowhere.  Justin Fields won't be nearly as effective against a much better defense here in Alabama.

Fields is dealing with a rib injury that held him out of practice most the week.  Ohio State has yet to reveal the severity of it, but it's not good.  And he's not about to do what he did against Clemson to Alabama.  The Tigers were cheating up to stop the run all game, allowing Fields to go over the top time after time.  Alabama will make the proper adjustment and make Ohio State drive the length of the field to score.

This is an Alabama defense that is giving up just 19.0 points per game this season.  Ohio State also has a great defense, allowing just 22.0 points per game.  The Buckeyes held Trevor Lawrence and Clemson's high-powered attack to just 28 points.  What made that even more impressive was Clemson was in the hurry up most of the 2nd half trying to erase a big deficit.

The extra preparation time in between games favors the UNDER as well.  The Buckeyes and Crimson Tide have both had 10 days to get ready for this game.  That will favor the defenses more than the offenses in this one.  And keep in mind if Alabama gets up they are more than happy with just sitting on the ball in the 2nd half.  That was the case against Notre Dame in their 31-14 victory.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 63 or higher (Ohio State) - after beating the spread by 35 points or more in their last three games against an opponent that beat the spread by 49 or or more points in their last seven games are 26-4 (86.7%) over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* UNC/Texas A&M Orange Bowl BAILOUT on Texas A&M -7

The Texas A&M Aggies felt snubbed that they didn't get into the four-team playoff.  Now they are about to take out their frustration on North Carolina here in the Orange Bowl.  And Jimbo Fisher always takes a workmanlike approach to these games and will have his team ready to go.

"You get in, you get out, and you've got to move on," Fisher said. "you got to the future, and listen, we get an opportunity to play in the Orange Bowl, like I said, one of the great bowl games in the history of this sport."

Texas A&M went 8-1 this season with its only loss coming to Alabama.  The Aggies were led by a dominant defense that gave up just 21.1 points and 316.6 yards per game this season.  Their defense will be by far the best unit on the field in this matchup.  And it's by far better than the UNC defense, which allows 28.4 points and 395.8 yards per game.

North Carolina is known for a high-powered offense, putting up great numbers against suspect ACC defenses all season.  But they were upset by both Florida State and Virginia.  And the one defense they faced that was actually pretty good was Notre Dame.  The Fighting Irish held them to 17 points and 298 total yards.  This Texas A&M defense is capable of doing the same thing.

While Texas A&M had minimal opt-outs and should have basically their entire roster available, UNC had several key players opt out.  The Tar Heels will be without two 1,000-yard rushers in RB's Javonte Williams and Michael Carter.  They will also be without a 1,000-yard receiver in Dyami Brown.  Plus, the leader of their defense and leading tackler in LB Chazz Surratt (92 tackles) has opted out as well.  With all of this NFL talent out, the Tar Heels will be a shell of their former selves.

Plays on any team (Texas A&M) - in a game involving two excellent rushing teams (4.8 YPC or more), after allowing 40 or less rushing yards last game are 35-9 (79.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Aggies are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games.  Texas A&M is 20-9-1 ATS in its last 30 games as a favorite.  The Tar Heels are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win.  Take Texas A&M Saturday.

20* Oregon/Iowa State Fiesta Bowl No-Brainer on Iowa State -3.5

The Iowa State Cyclones have a sour taste in their mouths from losing to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship Game.  The Cyclones got blown out by Notre Dame in their bowl game last year and lost a heartbreaker to Washington State the year before.  They won't be lacking any motivation here.  I have no doubt this senior-laden team wants to finish this season with an exclamation point in what has been one of the greatest seasons in program history.

I do question Oregon's motivation coming off a Pac-12 Championship in which they were gifted a spot in the title game due to COVID problems at Washington.  They beat USC 31-24, but that was one of the most misleading finals of the season.

Oregon only managed 243 total yards against USC but forced three turnovers, which was the difference.  The DUcks were upset as 13-point favorites by Oregon State and as 9-point favorites by California in their final two games of the regular season.  So that's basically three striaght games where Oregon has not played well.

The Big 12 looks great in bowl games thus far.  Oklahoma State beat Miami 37-34, Texas beat Colorado 55-23 and Oklahoma beat Florida 55-20.  So we've already seen a Big 12 vs. Pac-12 matchup in Texas' 55-23 win over Colorado.  And that was a Texas team with a ton of opt-outs and a backup QB in the second half.  And Iowa State beat Texas.

Oregon gave up 27.3 points and 409.5 yards per game this season.  Iowa State only gave up 21.8 points and 343.1 yards per game as they had one of the best defenses in the Big 12.  Oregon doesn't trust QB Tyler Shough to unleash him.  Shough only had 91 passing yards against USC in the Pac-12 Championship.

Iowa State trusts Brock Purdy to make all the throws.  He is completing 66.4% of his passes for 2,594 yards with an 18-to-9 TD/INT ratio this season.  He has also rushed for 343 yards and four scores.  And the Cyclones had the leading rusher in the country in Breece Hall, who rushed for 1,436 yards and 19 touchdowns this season to put his name in the Heisman Trophy discussion.

Iowa State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games coming in.  The Ducks are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games following an ATS win.  The Cyclones are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games following a SU loss.  Iowa State is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a favorite.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

25* Bowl TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Ohio State/Clemson UNDER 68

Clemson and Ohio State are very familiar with one another having played in the playoffs three times since the 2013 season.  That includes Clemson's 29-23 win last year that saw only 52 combined points.  Familiarity favors defense, and I can't believe the books have set this total this high for the Sugar Bowl rematch.

Both teams are elite defensively.  Clemson gives up 17.5 points and 298.5 yards per game this season.  They held Notre Dame to 10 points and 263 total yards in the ACC Championship Game.  And they have allowed just 12.3 points per game in their last three games coming in.

Ohio State gives up 21.0 points and 358.0 yards per game this season.  They have held their last two opponents to 11.0 points per game, including their 22-10 win over Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship Game.  

And we saw how the Northwestern defense was able to stop Justin Fields.  He went just 12-of-27 passing for 114 yards with two interceptions and zero touchdowns.  Fields is also battling a thumb injury.  The Buckeyes are more of a running team, which is going to favor the UNDER here as they try and milk the clock and limit possessions for Trevor Lawrence.  They average 45 rush attempts per game compared to 27 pass attempts.

The UNDER is 4-0 in Buckeyes last four bowl games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Buckeyes last six games as underdogs.  The UNDER is 7-2 in Buckeyes last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Tigers last five playoff semifinal games.  The UNDER is 7-2 in Tigers last nine bowl games as a favorite.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

25* Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Army +7

The Army Black Knights have put together another great season under head coach Jeff Monken, who is quickly becoming one of the best coaches in program history.  They sit at 9-2 on the season and will be highly motivated for a victory in the Liberty Bowl to get to 10 wins.

Army went from being a huge snub from a bowl game to finally getting a game against West Virginia, which was announced on December 21st.  Monken fought for a bowl game and got it done for his team.  Now I expect his players to respond in a great way here and make the most of this opportunity.

Give West Virginia credit for accepting this game, but it's not going to go well for them.  The Mountaineers have had just over a week to get ready for the triple-option.  They never see this physical style in the Big 12 and won't be ready for it.  Players hate to face triple-option teams, which is why you see so many Military schools have so much success year after year.

We saw this West Virginia defense get gashed on the ground down the stretch.  They gave up 179 or more rushing yards three times over their final five games, including 236 by Iowa State in their 6-42 loss in the season finale.  And they didn't have to play Oklahoma, so their season-long stats look good, but they are a little skewed to say the least.

Army is going to punch WVU in the mouth for four quarters with a rushing attack that ranked fourth in the nation at 281.3 yards per game.  They had four different players rush for between 401 and 502 yards, so they are a balanced attack that will hit you from everywhere they can on the ground.

This is a great Army defense that is giving up just 14.0 points and 271.1 yards per game as wlell.  West Virginia's weakness is on offense at 26.8 points per game this season.  Their offense really struggled down the stretch against the better competition they faced.  They managed just 14.3 points per game in their final three games and also managed just 13 points against Oklahoma State earlier this season.

West Virginia is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games as a neutral field favorite, including 0-8 ATS in its last eight games as a neutral field favorite of 7 points or less.  The Mountaineers are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 bowl games, including 0-6 ATS in their last six bowl games.  Bet Army in the Liberty Bowl Thursday.

20* Florida/Oklahoma Cotton Bowl No-Brainer on Oklahoma -2.5

The Oklahoma Sooners have been one of the best teams in the country since a shocking 1-2 start this season with losses to Kansas State and Iowa State to open Big 12 play.  They have gone 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS since while outscoring the opposition by 23.0 points per game.  They will win their 8th straight here in the Cotton Bowl against Florida.

Oklahoma has familiarity playing inside AT&T Stadium having just beating Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship.  They will not be awe struck one bit, and it's an advantage for them getting to play there again less than two weeks later.  And they will be motivated to knock off an SEC opponent here and put an exclamation point on what has been a tremendous turnaround season.

Oklahoma has another high-powered offense this year averaging 41.8 points per game.  Spencer Rattler came on strong starting with the win over Texas.  He completed 68% of his passes for 2,784 yards with a 25-to-7 TD/INT ratio this season, while also rushing for five scores.  Rattler and this Oklahoma offense should pick apart a Gators defense that ranked 78th national in yards per pass attempt (7.6) and 93rd in passer rating (145.6).

But the key to this Sooners team is that they have the best defense they've had in the Lincoln Riley era.  They give up just 21.9 points and 334.6 yards per game.  They have been tremendous against the run, allowing 92 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry.  Coordinator Alex Grinch has built a unit that thrives against fling-it-around schemes like this one run by Florida.

Florida is going to need to be able to run the football considering they will be without their top four receivers in this game.  WR Kedarius Toney (70 receptions, 984 yards, 10 TD), TE Kyle Pitts (43, 770, 12 TD) and WR Trevon Grimes (38, 589, 9 TD) will all be sitting out this game to prepare for the NFL Draft.  Jacob Copeland (23, 435, 3 TD) is also out due to COVID-19.  Even with star QB Kyle Trask at the helm, this offense won't be anywhere close to firing on all cylinders.

I think Oklahoma is happy to be here as they were eliminated from the four-team playoff early in the season and have earned their way to this Cotton Bowl.  I think Florida is not happy to be here as they had an outside shot at the four-team playoff down the stretch after an 8-1 start, but lost their final two games.  They lost as 23-point favorites to LSU and then to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.  I always like fading teams after playing Alabama.  They won't be nearly as excited to play Oklahoma as they were Alabama, and that is evident with all these opt-outs.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Florida) - a good team outscoring opponents by 7-plus points per game, after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games are 44-17 (72.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Sooners are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The Gators are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games on fieldturf.  The Sooners are 5-2 ATS in their last seven vs. SEC opponents.  Bet Oklahoma Wednesday.

20* Colorado/Texas Alamo Bowl BAILOUT on Colorado +8.5

Karl Dorrell's first year at Colorado brought with it Pac-12 Coach of the Year honors.  The Buffaloes were the surprise of the Pac-12 with a 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS record with their only loss coming to Utah in the season finale.  And now the Buffaloes are extremely happy to be playing in the Alamo Bowl.

The roles are reversed for Texas this year.  They beat a flat Utah team in the Alamo Bowl that just missed the 4-team playoff after losing in the Pac-12 Championship.  The Longhorns were the team that wanted to be there.  I don't think they will want to be playing in the Alamo Bowl for a second consecutive season after having higher expectations during the regular season of winning a Big 12 title and coming up short.

Now Texas will be without several key players who have opted out, showing they don't care much about winning this game.  They will be without leading receiver Brennan Eagles, left tackle Samuel Cosmi and another starter in senior Derek Kerstetter.  There's also some uncertainty with right guard Denzel Okafor, who could miss the game due to COVID-19 protocols.  The Longhorns are likely to start two true freshmen up front.

Colorado RB Jarek Broussard earned Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year honors this season by rushing for over 800 yards and 6.3 per carry in just five games.  Dual-threat QB Sam Noyer is tough to deal with as he led the Buffaloes with five rushing touchdowns.  And slowing down these two will be more difficult considering Texas will be without star DE/LB Joseph Ossai.  He wreaks havoc in opposing backfields with 5.5 sacks and three forced fumbles this season.

Dorrell is 13-5 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Colorado.  Dorrell is 9-2 ATS after allowing 37 points or more as the coach of the Buffaloes.  It's clear that Colorado wants to be here more with all of these opt outs by the Longhorns.  And they should be able to stay within a touchdown of Texas and likely pull off the upset.  Bet Colorado in the Alamo Bowl Tuesday.

20* Liberty/Coastal Carolina Cure Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Liberty +7

The Liberty Flames were one of my favorite teams to back all season.  They went 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS this season to earn head coach Hugh Freeze a hefty new contract.  I had them against Virginia Tech as 17-point dogs earlier this season in a game they won outright.  And their only loss came to NC State 14-15 after they had a last-second field goal blocked.

Liberty's stats are off the charts this season.  They are outgaining opponents by over 190 yards per game.  They give up just 307 yards per game defensively.  They average nearly 40 points and 500 yards per game on offense.  QB Malik Willis is one of the most underrated players in the country.  He had a 20-to-4 TD/INT ratio this season.  He led the team in rushing with 807 yards and 10 scores.  He is just tough to handle.

It's time to 'sell high' on Coastal Carolina and their perfect 11-0 record.  I was all ready to fade them with Louisiana in the Sun Belt Championship until COVID problems struck the Chanticleers.  And now there may be lingering effects from that with a lack of practice time.  I faded them with Troy in their regular season finale when the Trojans nearly won that game outright.  And I'm going to fade them again here.

I think Liberty will be the more motivated team here.  The Flames are extremely happy to be in this bowl game facing an unbeaten team.  Coastal Carolina thought it might be playing in a New Year's 6 Bowl and probably would have had they beaten Louisiana.  Instead of playing a big name Power 5 program, now they have to play Liberty.  I just can't see them getting up for this game.

"Having another chance to face Coastal Carolina after it was taken away from us at the end of our regular season gives us a chance to finish off a magical season and another special win," Liberty coach Hugh Freeze said.

Freeze is one of my favorite head coaches to back because he is so underrated dating back to his time at Ole Miss.  Freeze is now 62-35 ATS as a head coach.  Liberty is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games as an underdog.  The Flames are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Take Liberty Saturday.

20* WKU/Georgia State LendingTree Bowl No-Brainer on Georgia State -3.5

Conference USA teams have looked awful early in the bowl season.  North Texas lost 28-56 to Appalachian State, Louisiana Tech lost 3-38 to Georgia Southern and FAU lost 10-25 to Memphis.  All three failed to cover the spread by over 40 points combined.  Expect more of the same here for C-USA member Western Kentucky.

The Hilltoppers went 5-6 this season with four losses by double-digits.  Their five wins came against some awful teams in Middle Tennessee, Chattanooga, Southern Miss, FIU and Charlotte.  And three of those wins came by only 3 points each.  Chattanooga is an FCS team and the four C-USA teams they beat have a combined record of 8-22 this season.

This is a big step up in class here for Western Kentucky.  The Sun Belt has looked great early in the bowl season, including two matchups against Conference USA teams.  Applachian State beat North Texas 56-28 and Georgia Southern crushed LA Tech 38-3.  This is a different matchup here, but Georgia State was one of the better teams in the Sun Belt, which proved to be perhaps the most underrated conference in the country when you consider what Louisiana and Coastal Carolina did. 

Georgia State only lost to Louisiana by 3, App State by 4 and beat Georgia Southern by 6.  This is a veteran Panthers team that returned 16 starters and a ton of seniors this year.  The Panthers had 14 players named to the All-Sun Belt Conference.  And in his 24 seasons as a Division 1 coach, Shawn Elliott has been a part of 19 teams that have reached a bowl game or the NCAA playoffs.

"I am so proud of our players and the hard work to persevere through the season," Elliott said. "We talk about doing things for the first time, and back-to-back bowl games is another first for our program."

I just don't see how Western Kentucky is going to keep up with Georgia State in this one.  The Hilltoppers struggled offensively all season, averaging just 18.8 points per game, which was last in Conference USA.  Georgia State averages 32.7 points per game.  The Panthers are led by QB Cornelius Brown, who has thrown for 2,046 yards and 14 touchdowns, while also rushing for 261 yards and seven scores.

The Hilltoppers are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. Sun Belt opponents.  Western Kentucky is 2-8 ATS in Saturday games this season.  Bet Georgia State Saturday.

20* Marshall/Buffalo Crampton Bowl No-Brainer on Buffalo -4

The Buffalo Bulls were the best team in the MAC this season.  They were also one of the best non-power 5 teams in the country.  And the fact that they lost outright to Ball State in the MAC Championship Game as a 12.5-point favorite has them undervalued heading into bowl season.

That was a misleading loss for Buffalo to Ball State.  They racked up 499 total yards and outgained the Cardinals by 60 yards, but lost 28-38.  Their season stats are off the charts as they score 47.8 points per game and give up just 23.8 points per game.  They boast a rushing attack that averages 310 yards per game and 7.2 per carry behind one of the best backs in the country in Jaret Patterson, who is expected to play in this bowl game.  Patterson has rushed for 1,072 yards, 19 TD and 7.6 per carry this season.

Marshall feasted on an easy schedule early in the season with a 7-0 start.  But the Thundering Herd have been a different team since.  They lost 20-0 as a 24-point favorite against Rice.  Then they lost 13-22 as a 4.5-point favorite against UAB in the C-USA Championship Game.  So their offense has been held to averages of just 6.5 points and 256.5 yards per game in their last two.  

Their defense gave up 468 yards to UAB as they were outgained by 200 yards by the Blazers.  UAB rushed for 216 yards on them, so you can imagine what this Buffalo rushing attack is going to do to them.  And Marshall QB Grant Wells is awful, completing just 26-of-58 (44.8%) of his pass attempts with a 2-to-5 TD/INT ratio against Rice and UAB combined.

While Patterson and everyone is expected to play for Buffalo, Marshall has had three key players opt out.  They will be without leading rusher Brenden Knox, who rushed for 887 yards and nine touchdowns this season.  They will also be without leading tackler Tavante Beckett, who had 90 tackles and four fumble recoveries.  And their best offensive lineman in G Josh Ball has opted out.

Conference USA teams have looked awful early in the bowl season.  North Texas lost 28-56 to Appalachian State, Louisiana Tech lost 3-38 to Georgia Southern and FAU lost 10-25 to Memphis.  All three failed to cover the spread by over 40 points combined.  Expect more of the same here for C-USA member Marshall.

The Thundering Herd are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss.  The Bulls are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The Bulls are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after accumulating more than 450 yards in their previous game.  Bet Buffalo Friday.

20* Hawaii/Houston New Mexico Bowl No-Brainer on Hawaii +11.5

We've already seen a couple AAC teams get destroyed in bowls already.  Tulane lost 27-38 to Nevada, which this is also an AAC vs. Mountain West matchup.  And UCF got blasted 49-23 by UCF.  Keep in mind both Tulane and UCF scored late to make those final scores even closer than they really were.  And I can't give Memphis much credit for its 25-10 win over a bad FAU team.

Now Houston is laying double-digits in this bowl game and it's simply too much.  The Cougars went just 3-4 this season with thier only wins coming against Tulane, Navy and South Florida.  Three of their four losses came by 17 points or more.  So I'm not sure exactly what they have done to warrant being a double-digit favorite here.

Hawaii was solid in Todd Graham's first season this year.  They only lost to the best the Mountain West had to offer with setbacks against Boise State, San Jose State, San Diego State and Wyoming.  And they actually beat Nevada, which just beat Tulane.

Hawaii will never be out of this game with Chevan Cordeiro at quarterback.  He is completing 62.1% of his passes for 1,947 yards with 11 touchdowns and only six interceptions, while also rushing for a team-high 452 yards and seven touchdowns.  I like his dual-threat ability here.

Hawaii is extremely happy to be here.  The Rainbow Warriors will be making just their third-ever trip to a bowl in the 48 contiguous states and first since the 2008 Sugar Bowl in New Orleans.  And Graham has a chance to reach 100 wins as a head coach with a win on Christmas Eve.

"I am so excited for our team and staff," Graham said in a release. "They've worked hard throughout the entire season, under such challenging circumstances.  This game is a great chance to showcase our team to the people of Texas and to a national television audience.  Houston is a fine program and we can't wait to compete against them on Christmas Eve."

The Cougars are 2-6 ATS in their last eight vs. Mountain West opponents.  Bet Hawaii Thursday.

20* Tulane/Nevada Potato Bowl No-Brainer on Nevada +2.5

The wrong team is favored in this Famous Idaho Potato Bowl between Tulane and Nevada given the circumstances.  The least of which is that this is a short trip for the Wolf Pack at a familiar site in Boise, Idaho.  It's a long trip for the Green Wave from Louisiana.

Tulane is strong in the trenches, but they will be without two starting defensive linemen, including a first-team all-conference player.  They have another one questionable that was a first-teamer as well.  That leaves Tulane's already poor pass defense that gives up 281 passing yards per game and 8.5 yards per attempt even more susceptible.  Nevada QB Carson Strong should have a huge day through the air for a Wolf Pack team that averaged 325 passing yards per game and 7.9 per attempt this season.

Team chemistry will be off for the Green Wave as well.  They lost both of their coordinators earlier this offseason.  Offensive coordinator Will Hall was hired as Southern Miss' head coach.  Defensive coordinator Jack Curtis was fired as well.  They haven't had much time to get ready with their new coordinators and that makes this a very tough spot for them.

Tulane's offensive strength matches Nevada's defensive strength.  The Green Wave average 219 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry.  The Wolf Pack give up only 131 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry.  Jay Norvell made recruiting huge, athletic defensive linemen a priority and it is finally starting to pay off for the Wolf Pack.

The Wolf Pack are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Nevada is 5-0 ATS in its last five games as an underdog.  The Wolf Pack are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss.  Nevada is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games following a SU loss.  Bet Nevada in the Potato Bowl Tuesday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Stanford +7

The Stanford Cardinal opened 0-2 with tough losses to Oregon and Colorado and could have easily packed it in.  Instead, they have gone 3-0 in their last three games overall with road wins over California, Washington and Oregon State and now have a ton of momentum.  I like their mindset much more than that of UCLA heading into this game Saturday.

"For this team to come back after being on the road the last few weeks and be on a three-game winning streak, facing all kinds of odds," Stanford head coach David Shaw gushed last week. "We talk so much about character and recruiting the right guys.  We push each other; we support each other."

The mindset of the Bruins is a disastrous one.  They thought they were going to pull the upset over rival USC last week when they kicked a 43-yard field goal with 52 seconds to go to pull ahead 38-36.  But after a long kickoff return, USC marched down quickly and scored the game-winning touchdown with 16 seconds left.  

The Bruins looked gutted after the game, and I don't see how they could possibly get back up off the mat to give the kind of effort it's going to take to put Stanford away by more than a touchdown.  It has been a season of close calls for the Bruins, who lost by 6 to Colorado and by 3 to Oregon as well.  I think all these close losses will finally take their toll this week and the Bruins will fail to even show up.

The Cardinal are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 December games.  The Bruins are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as favorites.  The Cardinal are 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Stanford is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five trips to UCLA.  Shaw is 10-2 ATS off a win by 3 points or less as the coach of the Cardinal.  Bet Stanford Saturday.

15* Boise/SJSU MWC Championship ANNIHILATOR on San Jose State +7

What more do the San Jose State Spartans have to do to get some respect?  They are 6-0 this season and the best team in the Mountain West in my opinion.  Yet they are still 7-point underdogs to the Boise State Broncos.  They can use the underdog card here again as head coach Brent Brennan keeps pushing all the right buttons for this team.

The Spartans are 6-0 and there has been nothing fluky about it.  They have outgained five of their six opponents this season.  They just put up 506 total yards on a very good Nevada defense last week in a 30-20 win to punch their ticket into this MWC Championship Game.  And they have the best defense in the conference, giving up just 17.5 points per game this season.

Boise State's 5-1 record is fools' gold.  They got crushed against the best team they played in a 17-51 loss to BYU.  They were outgained by 264 yards by the Cougars.  In fact, they have been outgained in three of their six games this season.  They were also outgained by Air Force and Colorado State.  Plus, they only outgained Hawaii by 14 yards.  To compare, San Jose State outgained both Air Force and Hawaii by a combined 137 yards in their two games against common opponents with Boise.

Last year, San Jose State nearly pulled the upset in a 42-52 loss to Boise State as a 16.5-point dog.  And that was a much better Boise State team and a much worse SJSU team than the 2020 versions.  The Spartans held a 24-17 halftime lead, a 28-23 edge in first downs and and 497-466 yard edge.  They deserved to win that game.  And now they want revenge for it a year later.

The Spartans are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games as underdogs.  San Jose State is 6-0-2 ATS in its last eight games following a win.  The Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Roll with San Jose State Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Ole Miss -2

I love the spot for the Ole Miss Rebels Saturday. They are coming off three straight wins to get to get to 4-4 this season.  And they would love to finish with a winning record this year by knocking off rival LSU.  And now they have three weeks to get ready for the Tigers after last playing on November 28th.  This extra practice time has been great for first-year head coach Lane Kiffin and this talented young team.  It should pay off this week.

Meanwhile, LSU will be playing for a 5th consecutive week.  They just pulled one of the biggest upsets of the season last week in a 37-34 win as a 23-point dog over Florida.  It was a misleading final as LSU gave up 609 total yards to the Gators, but won the turnover battle 3-0.  And now LSU somehow has to get motivated this week following three straight games against playoff contenders in Texas A&M, Alabama and Florida.  I don't expect them to show up at all Saturday.

This is still a terrible LSU team that is 4-5 this season.  They are getting too much respect from oddsmakers after that misleading win over Florida.  And I agree with the line move here that now has Ole Miss the favorite after opening as the underdog.  The Rebels should have no problem winning this game by a field goal or more.  They have an elite offense averaging 39.8 points and 563.5 yards per game.  And they should score at will on an LSU defense that gives up 33.4 points and 484.7 yards per game.

LSU is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games off an upset win as a road underdog.  Ole Miss is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games after a game where it forced one or fewer turnovers.  Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LSU) - in conference games, off a close road win by 3 points or less are 24-8 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take Ole Miss Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Air Force -2.5

Air Force is undervalued right now due to a 3-2 record when they could easily be 5-0.  The Falcons have outgained four of their five opponents this season.  They were only outgained by 3 yards by San Jose State.  They have played the two best teams in the MWC in Boise and SJSU, who are squaring off in the MWC Championship Game Saturday.  And those are their only two losses.

They could have easily won both games.  They outgained Boise State by 25 yards in a misleading loss to the Broncos.  They rushed for 415 yards on Boise State's defense.  And they now average 336 rushing yards per game and 5.9 per carry this season.  They just do everything a little better than Army does.  The Black Knights average 280 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry.

Army is coming off a massive 15-0 win over Navy last week, which is their biggest rival.  They managed to win by 15 despite gaining just 162 total yards.  Keep in mind Air Force blasted Navy 40-7 earlier this season, so that gives them a common opponent.  Air Force has had two weeks off to get ready for Army, which will be a huge advantage.  That's especially the case considering Army just played a really physical game against Navy last week and won't have much left in the tank.

Air Force is great against the run, giving up just 106 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry.  Last year, Air Force rushed for 328 yards on Army while the Black Knights managed just 129 rushing yards.  So the Falcons had nearly 200 more rushing yards than Army in their 17-13 victory.  And I think we are getting the Falcons cheap here as only a 2.5-point favorite.  Not only are they the better team, but the spot favors them as well.

Army's 8-2 record has come against an extremely soft schedule and it has them overvalued.  The Falcons are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 non-conference games.  Air Force is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 trips to Army.  Bet Air Force Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah -10.5

This is a great ‘buy low’ spot on the Utah Utes after opening the season 2-2 SU under the best head coach in the conference in Kyle Whittingham.  I have put my trust him to get this thing turned around.  The two losses came to two of the best teams in the conference in USC and Washington.

Utah uncharacteristically gave both of those games away by committing five turnovers against USC and four more against Washington.  Whittingham-coached teams don’t make those kinds of mistakes.  And I think the slow start to the season has to do with all the Covid-19 issues with in the program that cut short their practice time.  But now with four games under their belts, this team is getting sharper and sharper as the season goes on.

That showed two weeks ago when Utah stormed out to a 30-10 lead over Oregon State early in the 4th quarter.  They did allow two garbage touchdowns late, and I think because that 30-24 final appears closer than it was, there was real value with the Utes last week against Colorado.

I cashed in Utah as an underdog as my 25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR last week in their 38-21 beat down of previously unbeaten Colorado.  The Utes racked up 432 total yards in the snow and controlled the game for four quarters.  QB Jake Bentley is playing great football, and they have now rushed for at least 192 yards in three straight games coming in.  They have also committed just one turnover in their last two games combined.

Now Utah has a ton of momentum and should crush a rusty Washington State team that will be playing just their 2nd game since November 14th.  The Cougars lost 29-43 to Oregon on November 14th and then 13-38 at USC on December 6th.  Those are two of the best teams in the conference, but I believe this current version of Utah is every bit as good as those two teams.  So they should be able to win by 14-plus points as well just like those two teams did.

Washington State is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games off a conference loss.  The Cougars are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games off an ATS loss.  Utah is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games off a conference win.  Nick Rolovich is 4-14 ATS off a conference loss in all games he has coached.  The Utes are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Utah Saturday.

20* Ball State/Buffalo MAC Championship No-Brainer on Ball State +13.5

The senior-laden Ball State Cardinals lost their opener to Miami Ohio and went on to win five straight to earn their trip to the MAC Championship Game.  They have all the momentum right now and won't be intimidated one bit by the Buffalo Bills.  This number has gotten out of control as the Cardinals shouldn't be catching nearly two touchdowns to the Bulls.

I've backed the Bulls several times already this season, so I am very high on them.  But they have feasted on the easiest schedule of anyone in the MAC.  They are in the weaker division and their wins have come against Akron, Bowling Green, Northern Illinois, Miami and Kent State.

Ball State plays in the tougher division.  They have wins over Toledo, Western Michigan, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan and Northern Illinois.  So while Buffalo has the way better numbers this year, it's easy to see why when you factor in strength of schedule.

Buffalo averages 166 passing yards per game and 345 rushing yards per game.  So the key to stopping the Bulls is stopping the run.  And Ball State's strength defensively is stopping the run.  They give up 148 rushing yards per game and only 3.9 per carry.  They will be prepared to stop Buffalo here.

Ball State has one of the best offenses in the MAC at 33.7 points and 457.8 yards per game.  They average 179 rushing yards and 279 passing yards per game with a balanced attack.  Drew Plitt is arguably the best QB in the MAC with 66.3% completions, 1,674 yards and a 13-to-5 TD/INT ratio.  The Cardinals are never going to be out of this game with Plitt at quarterback.

Ball State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. good offensive teams that average 450 or more yards per game.  The Cardinals are 8-1 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a winning record.  Ball State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as an underdog.  The Bulls are 1-6 ATS in their last seven neutral site games.  The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Ball State Friday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa +2.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes are making the most out of this COVID-shortened season.  They could have easily packed it in after an 0-2 start with two tough losses by a combined 5 points.  But they have gone the other way and made the most out of it.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS since, and now they want to make it six in a row against their rivals in the Wisconsin Badgers.

Conversely, Wisconsin has gone the other way.  They opened 2-0 with blowout wins over bad Illinois and Michigan teams.  But COVID has held them to only four games, and they have gone on to lose 7-17 to Northwestern as 7-point favorites and 6-14 to Indiana as 11.5-point favorites.  It’s hard to see them showing up this week either as all of their dreams and preseason goals can no longer be achieved.  They were expected to be one of the best teams in the conference.

That loss to Indiana is particularly concerning considering the Hoosiers were without their starting QB due to injury.  And this Wisconsin offense is really struggling right now, scoring a combined 13 points and committing a total of seven turnovers the last two weeks.  It’s just a lack of focus really.

Their job won’t get any easier against an Iowa defense that has now allowed 25 or fewer points in 21 consecutive games.  The Hawkeyes have allowed 24 or fewer in every game this season, giving up just 17.3 points, 326.4 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play.  And I believe this Iowa offense is the best unit that Wisconsin will have faced this season as well.  The Hawkeyes average 32.3 points per game this season.

Paul Chryst is 0-7 ATS after outgaining his last three oponnents by 125 or more total yards in all games he has coached.  The Badgers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Bet Iowa Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Troy +14

Coastal Carolina is coming off a massive win over BYU to improve to 10-0 for the first time in program history.  The Chanticleers have an even bigger game against Louisiana on deck next week in the Sun Belt Championship Game.  This is a sandwich spot for them here having to play Troy this week, while Louisiana gets a bye week to get ready for them.

Coastal Carolina has also gone 8-1-1 ATS this season.  So bettors who have backed them have made a fortune.  But now you are paying a tax to back the Chanticleers as 14-point road favorites here against Troy.  And I think this sandwich spot makes it a great time to ‘sell high’ on them.

Troy will be ready for this one.  The Trojans want revenge from a 35-36 loss to Coastal Carolina in which the Chanticleers scored and converted a 2-point conversion with 30 seconds left.  Troy outgained Coastal 500-476 in that one and threw for 385 yards on them.

The Trojans bounced back from three straight losses with a 29-0 win at South Alabama last time out as 4-point favorites.  QB Gunnar Watson, who has missed some time with injury this season and the Trojans have struggled without him, completed 82.9% of his passes for 297 yards with three touchdowns and zero interceptions against South Alabama.  He is completing 70.5% on the season with 1,881 yards and a 15-to-6 TD/INT ratio.  Watson means everything to their offense.

This is a 5-5 Troy team that has three losses by one score and four wins by 20 points or more.  And I like their chances of staying within two scores of the Chanticleers given the spot.  This is Troy’s Super Bowl, while Coastal Carolina basically played a Super Bowl against BYU last week and will be playing another next week.  If they were going to slip up, this would be the spot against Troy.

Troy is a perfect 7-0 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 8 or more yards per attempt over the last three seasons.  Roll with Troy Saturday.

25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Utah +1

This is a great ‘buy low’ spot on the Utah Utes after opening the season 1-2 SU under the best head coach in the conference in Kyle Whittingham.  I trust him to get this thing turned around.  The two losses came to two of the best teams in the conference in USC and Washington.

Utah uncharacteristically gave both of those games away by committing five turnovers against USC and four more against Washington.  Whittingham-coached teams don’t make those kinds of mistakes.  And I think the slow start to the season has to do with all the Covid-19 issues with in the program that cut short their practice time.  But now with three games under their belts, this team should only get sharper as the season goes on.

That showed last week when Utah stormed out to a 30-10 lead over Oregon State early in the 4th quarter last week.  They did allow two garbage touchdowns late, and I think because that 30-24 final appears closer than it was there is real value with the Utes this week going to Colorado.

It’s also a great time to ’sell high’ on the Buffaloes, who have been the surprise of the conference at 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season.  They deserve some credit, but it’s worth noting they have played one of the easiest schedules in the conference with wins over Arizona, San Diego State, Stanford and UCLA.  And all four wins came by 11 points or less, so they have been fortunate in close games.  Their good fortune runs out this week against a Utah team that is simply better than them.

Utah is 7-1 SU in its last eight meetings with Colorado with blowout wins each of the last three seasons by 30, 23 and 21 points.  If you would have told me Utah would be an underdog to Colorado coming into the season I would have laid my largest wager of the year on the Utes.  And I’m certainly going to lay one of my largest wagers on Utah here in the underdog role.  Bet Utah Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Illinois +14

Northwestern has beaten Illinois five straight seasons, the longest winning streak they have ever had in this rivalry with the Fighting Illini.  Lovie Smith and company want the Land of Lincoln Trophy to return to Champaigne on Saturday.

“It’s been up north for too long,” Smith said. “Our guys will be pumped up and ready to go.  We plan on playing our best game we’ve played all year.”

So you know the Fighting Illini are going to want it, and I think that will be enough to cover this 14-point spread.  Of course, it helps that they now have Brandon Peters back as their starting quarterback.  He is 7-6 SU in games in which he has started and finished at Illinois. 

Two games ago, Peters led Illinois to a 41-23 upset win at Nebraska at 17-point underdogs.  He also threw two touchdown passes early last week as the Fighting Illini jumped out to a 14-0 lead over Iowa, only to eventually fall 21-35.  That was a quality performance against an Iowa team that has now won five in a row and is playing as well as anyone in the Big Ten.

I question how motivated Northwestern will be Saturday.  The Wildcats clinched their second division total in three years on Saturday despite their game against Minnesota being canceled due to COVID-19.  They will be playing in the Big Ten Championship Game next week.  They will be more focused on keeping everyone healthy for that game than trying to blow out Illinois.  And I’ll gladly back the more motivated Fighting Illini playing their final game of the season here.

Northwestern may be 5-1 this season, but four of those wins have come by 10 points or less.  And they just were upset by a terrible Michigan State team 20-290 as 13.5-point favorites last time out.  They just have trouble getting margin because their offense isn’t very good.  They have scored 27 or fewer points in five straight games while averaging 21.2 points per game during this stretch.

Illinois is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 road games after a game where they committed zero turnovers.  Northwestern is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 home games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 425 or more yards per game.  The Fighting Illini are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  The Wildcats are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games as home favorites.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take Illinois Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Wake Forest +2.5

Louisville head coach Scott Satterfield made waves during the bye week when he talked with South Carolina about its coaching vacancy that was eventually filled by Oklahoma assistant Shane Beamer.  The fact that Satterfield even explored a new job just two seasons into his tenure at Louisville rubbed Cardinals fans and players the wrong way.

I just don’t think the Cardinals are all that motivated to finish the season with a win here Saturday.  They sit at just 3-7 on the season and have lost three of their last four coming in with their only win coming against lowly Syracuse.  They’ve had several players opt out of playing the rest of the season as well.

Conversely, Wake Forest sits at 4-3 right now and wants to finish the season with a winning record.  The Demon Deacons have been one of the biggest surprised in the conference.  They are scoring 39.3 points per game on offense and giving up 29.7 points per game on defense.

None of the three losses were bad, either.  They covered in a 24-point loss to Clemson to open the season.  They only lost by 3 on the road to NC State and by 6 at North Carolina after blowout a double-digit lead late.  The Demon Deacons are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall and finishing the season strong.

Wake Forest QB Sam Hartman has zero interceptions in 195 pass attempts this season.  He has hit on 62.6% of his attempts while averaging a whopping 13.8 yards per completion.  He had 429 yards and four touchdowns against UNC and they actually held a 45-24 lead in that contest.

Louisville is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 vs. good offensive teams that average 425 or more yards per game.  The Cardinals are 6-22-1 ATS in their last 29 vs. a team with a winning record.  Dave Clawson is a perfect 7-0 ATS after scoring 37 points or more in two straight games as a head coach.  Take Wake Forest Saturday.

20* Nevada/San Jose State MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 59.5

Mountain West Championship implications are on the line tonight when the Nevada Wolf Pack (6-1) take on the San Jose State Spartans (5-0) at Sam Boyd Stadium in Nevada.  Look for a defensive battle between these teams with what is at stake tonight.

Both Nevada and San Jose State have elite defenses.  Nevada gives up 21.9 points, 361.1 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play this season.  They have one of the most improved defenses in the country largely because of their huge, dominant defensive line.  They give up just 121 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry.

San Jose State has been even better defensively.  The Spartans give up 17.0 points, 347.2 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play this season.  While their offense is solid, they only average 419.2 yards per game this season on that side of the ball.  And Nevada’s offense gets more credit than it deserves, too.  They have been held to 27 or fewer points in three of their last four games overall.

Nevada is 7-0 UNDER in its last seven games off a home conference win.  The Wolf Pack are 7-0 UNDER in their last seven games after gaining 325 or more passing yards last game.  The UNDER is 36-17 in Wolf Pack last 53 games off an ATS win.  The UNDER is 5-1 in San Jose State’s last six games overall.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Pitt/Georgia Tech ACC ANNIHILATOR on Georgia Tech +7

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are much better than their 3-6 record would suggest.  They are only getting outgained by 58.7 yards per game on the season and have been through the gauntlet recently with games against Clemson and Notre Dame.  They have a lot of misleading box scores this season in which they lost the game but won the box score.

I think that has created some nice line value here on the Yellow Jackets late in the season catching 7 points at home to Pittsburgh.  They outgained NC State by 15 yards in a 13-23 loss, were only outgained by 47 yards by Boston College in a 21-point loss, and outgained Syracuse by 96 yards in a loss.  But they have been playing better in recent weeks, covering their last two games and really should have covered three in a row.  

They covered against Notre Dame as a 20.5-point dog, beat Duke outright 56-33 as a 3-point dog, and then lost to NC State by 10 as a 7-point dog.  But again, they gained 412 yards on the Wolfpack but only had 13 points to show for it.  That’s hard to do.  Look for them to put those good stats to use this week and hang a big number on this Pittsburgh defense.

The Panthers just had their best defensive lineman in Rashad Weaver (7.5 sacks) opt out of the rest of the season for personal reasons.  They were already missing another of their top DL coming into the season in Jaylen Twyman for personal reasons.  And now all of a sudden this Pitt defense isn’t very good.

That was on display last time out as they gave up 52 points and 591 total yards to Clemson in their 35-point loss.  And it’s going to be hard for Pitt to get up for Georgia Tech after facing Clemson.  I always like fading teams after they play Top 5 schools like Clemson.

Three of the last five meetings have been decided by 5 points or less.  Pitt has only beaten Georgia Tech by more than 5 points once in the last seven meetings, and that was their 20-10 win last year against a rebuilding Georgia Tech team in Geoff Collins’ first season.  The Yellow Jackets have been way more competitive here in his second season, and now they want to prove the strides they’ve made by beating Pitt here Thursday night.

Pittsburgh is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 vs. bad defensive teams that give up 37 or more points per game.  The Panthers are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games following a game in which they committed four or more turnovers.  Pitt is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games.  The Yellow Jackets are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  Take Georgia Tech Thursday.

15* CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -11

This is a great ‘buy low’ spot on the Utah Utes after opening the season 0-2 SU under the best head coach in the conference in Kyle Whittingham.  I trust him to get this thing turned around.  The two losses have come to two of the best teams in the conference in USC and Washington.

Utah uncharacteristically gave both of those games away by committing five turnovers against USC and four more against Washington.  Whittingham-coached teams don’t make those kinds of mistakes.  And I think the slow start to the season has to do with all the Covid-19 issues with in the program that cut short their practice time.  But now with two games under their belts, this team should only get sharper as the season goes on.

Look for Utah to put its best foot forward here against Oregon State.  And it’s a great time to ‘sell high’ on the Beavers, who are coming off two straight wins and are 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They just won their ‘Super Bowl’, beating arch rival Oregon outright 41-38 as a 13-point underdogs.  And now this is a huge letdown spot for the Beavers this week.

Unfortunately for Oregon State, they lost starting QB Tristan Gebbia to a hamstring injury on the game-winning drive as he was trying to go in on a QB sneak.  Now they will start backup Chance Nolan, and this is a big downgrade.  They are going to have to rely even more on their running game and star RB Jermar Jefferson, who has rushed for 675 yards and seven touchdowns.

But this is a terrible matchup for Jefferson and this Oregon State offense.  Utah has one of the best defensive lines in the country.  They are giving up just 90 rushing yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry against USC and Washington.  Their weakness has been against the pass, but that won’t be a factor here against backup QB Nolan.

Utah should really gets its offense going against an Oregon State defense that gives up 32.5 points and 442.8 yards per game this season.  We saw that last year when Utah blasted Oregon State 52-7 and racked up 503 total yards int he victory.  They held the Beavers to just 217 total yards, including only 48 rushing on 22 attempts.  It will be more of the same in this 2020 meeting.

Utah is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in two straight games.  The Utes are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 conference games.  Utah is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games.  Roll with Utah Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Stanford +12

Stanford is just 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS this season.  So this is a good ‘buy low’ opportunity on the Cardinal this week as they travel to take on Washington.  They have played a very tough schedule which is the reason for their slow start.

They lost by 21 to Oregon in a game that was much closer than the final score.  They went 0-for-4 on field goal attempts in that game and had two other drives in Oregon territory end with zero points.  Plus, they were without QB Davis Mills and their star WR for that game due to Covid-19.

Then Mills returned and they lost by 3 to Colorado in their next game.  That’s a Colorado team that is the surprise of the Pac-12 thus far at 3-0 with three quality wins.  And last week they went on the road and beat California after a missed extra point by the Golden Bears in the final minutes.  That win re-energized this team as you could tell how elated they were to get the victory.

Washington is overvalued due to being 3-0 this season, but are just 1-2 ATS.  The Huskies have played the much softer schedule.  They only beat Oregon State by 6, Arizona by 17 and Utah by 3 all at home.  Those three teams are a combined 2-7 this season.  They needed a 21-point second half comeback to beat Utah last week, 24-21, and that comeback effort will have taken a lot out of them.  They were aided by four turnovers from the Utes.

Stanford owns Washington in going 5-2 SU in the last seven meetings.  That includes a 23-13 upset win as 13.5-point underdogs last season.  And Washington has a huge game on deck against Oregon next week.  The Cardinal are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  This line should not be double-digits.  

The Huskies are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Cardinal are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 December games.  Washington is 14-28 ATS in its last 42 games after forcing four or more turnovers in its previous game.  David Shaw is 11-3 ATS off a win by 6 points or less as the coach of the Cardinal.  Take Stanford Saturday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Ball State ML +105

The Ball State Cardinals are very close to being 4-0 this season.  They deserved to win their opener against defending MAC champ Miami Ohio but lost 31-38.  They had 478 total yards and outgained them by 59 yards.  But they have reeled off three straight victories since, including an impressive 27-24 win at Toledo as a 10-point dog last week, which is one of the best wins in the MAC this season.

And that game against Toledo was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed.  Ball State led 27-9 with under six minutes left before Toledo tacked on two garbage time touchdowns to make the final look closer.  And I think because of that we are getting great value on Ball State as an underdog against Central Michigan, a team they are better than.

Ball State boasts a prolific offense that puts up 31.8 points, 469 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  They have arguably the best QB in the MAC in Drew Pitt, who is picking up right where he left off last season.  He is completing 68.3% of his passes for 1,059 yards and six touchdowns this season.  RB Caleb Huntley is also one of the best backs in the MAC with 437 rushing yards and six scores while averaging 5.5 per carry.

Central Michigan is very fortunate to be 3-1 this season.  They won by 30-27 over Ohio and had to come back from a 20-6 deficit in the 4th quarter to beat a bad Eastern Michigan team last week.  And they lost starting QB Daniel Richardson to injury late in that game and will now be down to a third-string QB in Ty Brock since backup David Moore is ineligible.  That’s a bad look for the Chippewas.

Ball State wants revenge from a 44-45 loss to Central Michigan as a 1-point favorite last year.  The Cardinals are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 games as a road underdog of 7 points or less.  Ball State is 47-23 ATS in its last 70 games as a road underdog, and 5-0 ATS in its last five games as an underdog overall.  The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings at Central Michigan.  The road team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  We don’t even need the points here.  Bet Ball State on the Money Line Saturday.

20* Louisiana/App State ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 51.5

It’s expected to be 32 degrees Friday night with a 99% chance of rain and winds of 25 to 35 MPH in Boone, North Carolina.  That’s where this game will be played inside Appalachian State’s home stadium.  And the weather has me really liking this UNDER.

Not to mention, these teams are very familiar with one another after meeting in the Sun Belt Championship Game each of the past two seasons.  In fact, they have played four times since 2018, with three of the four meetings seeing 49 or fewer combined points and the UNDER going 3-1 in those four meetings.

Both teams are going to have to run the football even more than they are accustomed to with the weather conditions.  And both teams already love to run the ball anyway.  Louisiana averages 38 rush attempts for 217 yards per game and 5.8 per carry.  Appalachian State averages 46 rush attempts, 257 yards per game and 5.6 yards per carry.

Both teams have elite defenses as well.  Louisiana gives up 21.9 points per game, 354.2 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play this season.  Appalachian State gives up 18.0 points per game, 320.0 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play this season.

Appalachian State is 21-7 UNDER in its last 28 games after outgaining its last opponents by 225 or more total yards.  Louisiana is 8-1 UNDER vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game over the last two years.  The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.

Plays on the UNDER on any team (Appalachian State) - a dominant team outgaining opponents by 100+ yards per game against a good team (+50-+100 YPG) after 7-plus games, after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in their previous game are 28-6 (82.4%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Air Force/Utah State MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on Air Force -11

The Air Force Falcons should make easy work of the Utah State Aggies tonight.  Air Force is just 2-2 and undervalued due to that .500 record in which they have played much better than their record would indicate.

For starters, the Falcons are outgaining opponents by 79.0 yards per game on the season. They are still an elite rushing team with 336 rushing yards per game and 5.8 yards per carry.  And their defense has been very good in allowing just 18.3 points and 324.5 yards per game this season.

Utah State is one of the worst teams in all of college football.  They are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS this season.  They are scoring just 17.2 points per game and averaging 284.6 yards per game on offense.  They are giving up 35.2 points and 490.2 yards per game on defense.  They are getting outscored by 18.0 points per game and outgained by 205.6 yards per game.

Utah State is now getting too much respect after upsetting New Mexico 41-27 as 6.5-point dogs last week.  That’s the same New Mexico team that Air Force beat 28-0.  And keep in mind Air Force’s only two losses came against two of the best teams in the Mountain West in Boise State and SJSU.  Air Force was only outgained by 3 yards by SJSU and actually put up 484 yards on Boise State and outgained them by 25 yards.  Utah State lost 13-42 to Boise State and was outgained by 247 yards.

Utah State gives up 203 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry.  They aren’t going to be able to slow down the Falcons’ triple-option attack.  Air Force is 33-13 ATS in its last 46 road games after allowing 14 points or fewer last game.  The Aggies are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games as underdogs, including 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as home dogs.  The Falcons are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Air Force Thursday.

15* Nevada/Hawaii MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on Nevada -7

Nevada was a team I was very high on coming into the season and they have not let me down.  They returned 17 starters and a ton of experience, a prolific offense and one of the most improved defenses in the country due to the size the Wolf Pack have accumulated on the defensive line.

The Wolf Pack are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS this season and showing they can contend for a Mountain West title.  They are averaging 32.2 points and 460.6 yards per game on offense and giving up just 20.6 points and 312.8 yards per game on defense.  They feature a high-octane passing attack with 69.9% completions, 364 yards per game and 8.3 yards per attempt.

They want revenge from their worst loss of the season last year, a 54-3 loss to Hawaii when they were 2-point favorites in a downpour.  Weather will be perfect in Hawaii, and this is a Hawaii team now in rebuilding mode after losing head coach Nick Rolovich to Washington State.

Hawaii is just 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS this season.  The Warriors’ only wins came against Fresno State in the opener and over New Mexico 39-33 as a 13-point favorite.  That’s a New Mexico team that lost 28-0 to Air Force two weeks ago and then suffered an embarrassing 41-27 loss to Utah State as a 6-point favorite on Thursday.

Hawaii also lost 7-31 to Wyoming, 10-34 to San Diego State and 32-40 to Boise State.  And keep in mind that loss to Boise was much worse than the final score showed.  The Broncos led 40-17 entering the 4th quarter before the Warriors scored two touchdowns in garbage time and converted a plethora of 4th-down conversions in the process.

These teams already have three common opponents.  Nevada is 3-0 against them and outscoring them by 5.0 points per game.  Hawaii is 1-2 against them and getting outscored by 14.0 points per game.  That’s a 19-point scoring differential, and it shows that Nevada can easily cover this 7-point spread Saturday night without really even trying.

Hawaii is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games after tailing in its last two games by 14 or more points at halftime.  The Wolf Pack are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Rainbow Warriors are 11-27-1 ATS in their last 39 home games.  The Wolf Pack are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  It’s revenge time here as the Wolf Pack improve to 6-0 this season with a blowout victory over the Rainbow Warriors.  Take Nevada Saturday.

20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Louisiana-Monroe +28.5

Louisiana-Lafayette already clinched its 3rd straight West Division title last time out with a 38-10 win over South Alabama.  They don’t have much to play for the rest of the way.  And they have COVID problems with 33 players in coronavirus protocol last week, causing their game against Central Arkansas to be cancelled.

Head coach Billy Napier also tested positive and hasn’t been with the team all week and won’t be with them until the game Saturday.  His quotes are very telling.  “The tough thing here is we don’t get to practice, and I’m not going to have the opportunity to spend time with family for Thanksgiving.  I wish I could be with the guys during the week and all that getting ready, but I mean, it’s not happening.  It’s fortunate that it worked out to where I can be there Saturday.”

The betting public wants nothing to do with this 0-8 Louisiana-Monroe team.  So they are catching a boat load of points here because of their record.  But six of their eight losses this season came by 25 points or less.  They only exceptions were their 30-point loss to Army in the opener and their 33-point loss to Liberty, which are two very good teams.

Louisiana-Monroe only lost by 18 points to Appalachian State a few weeks back.  The Mountaineers are the two-time defending Sun Belt champs, so that was a good performance.  And speaking of Appalachian State, Louisiana has them on deck next week. They could easily be looking ahead to that game against a team that has beaten them each of the last two years in the Sun Belt title game.  They want revenge on App State as that is their Super Bowl.

This game is Louisiana-Monroe’s Super Bowl against their biggest rivals in Louisiana-Lafaytte.  They get up for this game every year, and that has shown in recent meetings.  Six of the last seven meetings have been decided by 7 points or fewer.  That includes last year when Monroe was a 20.5-point dog and only lost by a single point, 30-31.

I like the new QB for Louisiana-Monroe in Jeremy Hunt, who relieved ailing starter Colby Suits against Georgia State last time out.  He threw for 339 yards and three touchdowns and clearly gave their offense a spark by leading the Warhawks to 34 points in that 18-point loss.

Louisiana is simply overvalued due to its 7-1 record.  But five of those wins came by 10 points or fewer, and they haven’t beaten anyone by more than 28 points this season.  The underdog is 16-3-1 ATS in the last 20 meetings.  Bet Louisiana-Monroe Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Georgia State ML +107

Georgia State is one of my favorite teams to back because they just fly under the radar in the Sun Belt conference.  They are 4-4 this season and nearly upset Appalachian State two weeks ago in a 13-17 loss as 18.5-point dogs.  And last week they handled South Alabama 31-14 as 3.5-point favorites behind 556 yards of total offense.

Their offense is hitting on all cylinders right now and their defense just limited App State to 310 total yards and South Alabama to 324 total yards.  They should not be underdogs to Georgia Southern this week in a game they are going to win outright.

Georgia Southern has to be getting tired playing for a 7th consecutive week here.  After three straight home wins by 7 points or fewer, they finally met their match last week in a 27-28 loss to Army.  And you know how physical Army is with their triple-option, so that game will have taken a lot out of Georgia Southern heading into this game with Georgia State.

Georgia Southern is 0-4 ATS in its last four games as a road favorite.  The Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  Take Georgia State on the Money Line Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Texas Tech +11

I faded Oklahoma State last week with an easy win on Oklahoma -7 in Bedlam in a 41-13 blowout win over the Cowboys.  I thought that would have exposed the Cowboys for the frauds they were, but here they are laying double-digits to Texas Tech this week.  The value is clearly on the Red Raiders as the Cowboys are once again getting way too much respect from oddsmakers.

Oklahoma State’s offense has been terrible all season in averaging just 386.4 yards per game.  Take away the 593 yards they had against Kansas and the numbers look really bad for them against all the other legitimate teams they have faced.  They were held to 256 yards by Kansas State and then 246 yards by Oklahoma in their last two games.  Now QB Spencer Sanders has a head injury and may not start, and backup Shane Illingworth is out with Covid-19.  It’s just a bad look for the Cowboys offensively right now.

I think the Cowboys could suffer a hangover here from that deflating loss to Oklahoma, and Texas Tech is in a great spot coming in on two weeks’ rest following a last second win over Baylor two weeks ago.  Their only blowout loss this season came against Oklahoma, and they beat West Virginia earlier this year and deserved to beat Texas in an overtime loss after they blew a 15-point lead in the final minutes.

Texas Tech simply has Oklahoma State’s number.  The Red Raiders are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  They pulled two outright upsets each of the last two years.  They won 45-35 as a 9-point dog last year and 41-17 as a 14.5-point dog in 2018.  And in 2017 they only lost by 7 as a 10-point dog and by 1 in 2016 as a 10.5-point dog.  And once again they are catching too many points here when they are in the better spot off a bye and with Oklahoma State off Bedlam.  Roll with Texas Tech Saturday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Maryland +12

It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on Indiana this week.  They are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS this season and now getting way too much respect from oddsmakers.  And it’s a terrible sandwich spot for them coming off a tough 35-42 loss to Ohio State and with Wisconsin on deck next week.  I think they suffer a hangover here from that loss to the Buckeyes and won’t be as motivated or focused as they need to be to put away Maryland by double-digits.

Maryland’s 3-43 loss to Northwestern in the opener has them extremely undervalued now.  They have since gone on to pull off two straight luges upsets with a 45-44 win over Minnesota as a 17.5-point dog and a 35-19 win over Penn State as a 27.5-point dog.

Starting QB Tualia Tagovailoa is one of the top QB recruits in the country.  After a stinker against Northwestern, he has been brilliant in his last two starts.  He threw for 394 yards and three touchdowns against Minnesota before throwing for 282 yards and three more touchdowns against Penn State.  He is also a dual-threat with 61 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the ground this season.

Each of the last four meetings in this series were decided by 6 points or fewer.  And you know Maryland wants revenge from losing the last two by a combined 8 points.  Plus it’s a great spot for the Terrapins here coming in rested after last playing on November 7th.  And Indiana will be playing for a 6th consecutive week, and their tough early schedule will take its toll this week.

Indiana is 4-1 SU despite only outgaining its opponents by an average of 9.6 yards per game on the season.  That stat alone shows how overvalued Indiana is right now.  And it’s time to fade them this week as they suffer their first ATS loss of the season, and they’ll be fortunate to even win this game straight up.  I definitely have some Maryland +360 on the money line and you should too.  But we’ll take the points for some added insurance.  Bet Maryland Saturday.

20* Oregon/Oregon State Pac-12 No-Brainer on Oregon State +14

The Oregon Ducks are way overvalued after their 3-0 start that has them ranked as a Top 10 team in the country.  They aren’t one of the 10 best teams in the country, and they are fortunate to be 3-0.  Let’s just go game by game with them to see how fortunate they have been.

Stanford’s starting QB and top WR were out for the opener just before game time.  And Stanford went 0-for-4 on field goals and had six drives in Oregon territory result in zero points in their 35-14 loss.

The next week Oregon fell behind 19-7 with 20 seconds left before half and somehow got a huge play and scored before intermission with three seconds left to make it 19-14.  They also tacked on a TD in the final two minutes to win 43-29 and cover the 10.5-point spread even though they never deserved to cover.

Last week Oregon was extremely fortunate to beat UCLA 38-35 as an 18.5-point favorites. They gave up 462 total yards to the Bruins and were outgained by 40 yards in the win.  They were +3 in turnovers and still only won by 3 points.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Ducks.

The Oregon State Beavers improved big time last year under head coach Jonathan Smith, their former quarterback.  They went from 2-10 in his first season to 5-7 last year and had three losses by 3 points or less.  That’s how close they were to being an 8-4 team.  And now Smith welcomes back 14 returning starters from last year’s squad and is in his third year with the program.

The Beavers have had a couple tough losses to open the season.  They were upset 28-38 in the opener by Washington State, and then lost 21-27 at Washington as 13-point dogs.  But they got on track last week with a 31-27 victory as 1-point dogs against California.  And now they are excited to face off against their biggest rivals here in Oregon and try to hand them their first loss.  And we have a lot of room to work with since the Beavers are catching 14 points.

Oregon only beat Oregon State 24-10 as a 21-point favorite last year.  And that game was closer than the final score would indicate as the Beavers actually outgained the Ducks by 15 yards.  This 2020 version of Oregon isn’t nearly as good as the one with Justin Herbert and company last year as they lost him and all five starters on the offensive line.  Oregon State is every bit as good as it was last year.

Oregon State is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 6.25 or more yards per play.  The Beavers are 7-0 ATS after playing a home game over the last two seasons.  Oregon State is 5-0 ATS in its last five games as an underdog.  Bet Oregon State Friday.

15* Notre Dame/UNC ACC Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 67.5

This is an inflated total due to the numbers that North Carolina has been putting up this season.  But this game will be played close to the vest as it’s a Top 25 matchup in the ACC.  And my favorite reason for backing the UNDER is that both teams are coming off bye weeks so they’ve had two full weeks to get ready for one another.  That is going to favor the defenses dramatically.

Notre Dame has the best defense that UNC will have faced this season.  The Fighting Irish are only giving up 16.6 points and 304.1 yards per game.  And the Fighting Irish have a great rushing attack that will allow them to move the ball on the ground and keep that UNC offense off the field.  They average 234 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry.  But it is worth noting the Fighting Irish will be without two starters on the offensive line, which can only hurt their offense and help this UNDER.

UNC also likes to run the football in average 234 rushing yards per game and 5.6 per carry. They have put up some big numbers against some really bad defenses this season, which is why this total has been inflated.  They have gone OVER the total in four straight coming in, while Notre Dame has gone OVER the total in two straight.  It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the UNDER in this matchup now.

Notre Dame is 12-3 UNDER in its last 15 games after gaining 525 or more yards per game in its last two games.  UNC is 13-4 UNDER in its last 17 home games after allowing 325 or more passing yards last game.  The UNDER is 24-9 in Fighting Irish last 33 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 63 or higher (UNC) after going over the total by more than 35 points in their previous game, a good team winning between 60% and 80% of their games on the season are 32-8 (80%) since 1992.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Nebraska/Iowa Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Nebraska +14

It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Nebraska Cornhuskers this week.  They are off to a 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS start, but they have played the toughest schedule in the Big Ten to this point.  Two of their losses came on the road to Ohio State and Northwestern while they also beat Penn State.  And last week’s upset loss to Illinois in which they were -5 in turnovers really has them undervalued this week.

It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on Iowa after the Hawkeyes went 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  Those wins came against three of the worst teams in the Big Ten in Michigan State, Minnesota and Penn State.  And all three wins were much closer than the scores would indicate as they outgained Michigan State by 119 yards, Minnesota by 34 yards and Penn State by 19 yards.

Nebraska will show up for this rivalry game with Iowa, just as it has the past two years.  And Huskers have not forgotten about their 3-point losses to the Hawkeyes each of the past two seasons, and those were bad Nebraska teams and good Iowa teams.  Iowa isn’t as good this year, and Nebraska is better than its 1-3 record in Scott Frost’s third season.  Nebraska’s best effort here will be good enough to stay within this 14-point spread.

Kirk Ferentz is 0-6 ATS in home games after leading its last two games by 14 or more points at halftime as the coach of Iowa having never covered in this spot.  Ferentz is also 20-33 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points as the coach of Iowa.  The Huskers are 29-14 ATS in their last 43 games after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games.  Roll with Nebraska Friday.

20* Oklahoma State/Oklahoma ABC No-Brainer on Oklahoma -7

The Oklahoma Sooners deserve a lot of credit from rebounding from upset losses to Kansas State and Iowa State to open the Big 12 season.  They could have easily packed it in.  But now they find themselves right back in the Big 12 title run after going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They have been undervalued from those losses ever since and remain undervalued in my eyes this week.

There has been nothing fluky about this run, either.  Oklahoma beat Texas in overtime after blowing a 14-point lead in the final four minutes.  That win propelled them to three straight blowout victory over TCU by 19, over Texas Tech by 34 and over Kansas by 53.  The Sooners have now outgained six of their seven opponents this season with the only exception being the 3 yards they were outgained by Iowa State.

Oklahoma State is one of the most fraudulent teams in the country.  They are 5-1 despite getting outgained in half of their games this season.  They were outgained by both Tulsa and West Virginia in misleading wins.  And last time out they were fortunate to beat Kansas State 20-18 despite getting outgained by 114 yards.

While the Cowboys have a good defense, they haven’t faced an offense as potent as this Oklahoma outfit.  The Sooners are averaging 46.1 points and 515 yards per game this season behind the play of QB Spencer Rattler.  He is by far the better Spencer in this matchup as Spencer Sanders is terrible for Oklahoma State and a turnover machine.  The Cowboys managed just 256 total yards against Kansas State, which was their lowest total since 2014.  Sanders won’t be able to match Rattler score for score, and he could be without his favorite target in Tylan Wallace, who is questionable.

Oklahoma is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Oklahoma State with four of those five wins coming by double-digits.  And I think the Sooners should be double-digit favorites here.  Finally, the Sooners are a perfect 9-0 SU & 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine games as a favorite of 7 points or less.  It’s rare we get the opportunity to back them in this role and we’ll take advantage this weekend in Bedlam.  Bet Oklahoma Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas State +11

The Kansas State Wildcats will be ‘all in’ this week knowing they need a win to stay alive for the Big 12 title.  They are 4-2 within the conference with impressive wins over Oklahoma and TCU and a narrow 18-20 loss to Oklahoma State.  The Wildcats outgained the Cowboys by 114 yards in that game and deserved to win.

Now the Wildcats face an Iowa State team that they have owned over the last couple decades.  Indeed, Kansas State is 11-1 SU in its last 12 meetings with Iowa State with its only loss coming 38-42 after a blowing a 17-point lead in the 4th quarter.  So there’s no way the Wildcats should be double-digit dogs here against a team they simply own.

Iowa State is overvalued after a 5-1 start to the Big 12 conference season.  The Cyclones have gone 3-1 in games decided by a TD or less in conference play, so they have had some good fortune.  And their only two blowout wins came against the two worst teams in the Big 12 in Kansas and Texas Tech.  They aren’t about to blow out Kansas State.

Iowa State is 0-6 ATS in home games after having won four or five of hitter last six games over the last three seasons.  Kansas State is 6-0 ATS after allowing 3 points or less int he first half last game over the last three years.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Wildcats.  Take Kansas State Saturday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on Nevada +1.5

Nevada was a team I was very high on coming into the season and they have not let me down.  They returned 17 starters and a ton of experience, a prolific offense and one of the most improved defenses in the country due to the size the Wolf Pack have accumulated on the defensive line.

The Wolf Pack are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS this season and showing they can contend for a Mountain West title.  They are averaging 33.8 points and 481.8 yards per game on offense and giving up just 20.5 points and 317.8 yards per game on defense.  They feature a high-octane passing attack with 70.9% completions, 383 yards per game and 8.9 yards per attempt.

San Diego State moved on from Rocky Long and now had Brady Hoke back at head coach.  It’s definitely a step down at the head coaching position.  But the Aztecs are still solid this season as the cupboard wasn’t bare.  The Aztecs are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS this season.

The problem is their three wins have not been impressive at all as they’ve come against UNLV, Utah State and Hawaii.  The only decent team they faced was San Jose State, and they lost that game 17-28 as 10-point favorites.  Nevada will be the best team they have faced yet.

Nevada has given San Diego State problems under Jay Norvell.  The Wolf Pack are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their last two meetings with the Aztecs over the past two seasons with upset wins as 17.5-point dogs and 2-point dogs.  And this is the best team Norvell has had yet and it’s not even close.  There’s no way the Wolf Pack should be the underdogs in this game.

Norvell is 8-1 ATS in home games in the second half of the season as the coach of Nevada.    The Wolf Pack are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as underdogs.  Bet Nevada Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Rice +2.5

The Rice Owls were one of my surprise teams coming into the season with all they returned.  They had 17 starters back for head coach Mike Bloomgren, who is molding this program into a mini Stanford after learning under David Shaw.  And now he finally has the right players in place to be the physical running team that he wants to be.

After so many Covid issues, Rice finally got to play its first game of the season against Middle Tennessee on October 24th.  They lost that game in overtime after committing three turnovers early and had to come from behind to force OT.  Then the next week they came out and blasted Southern Miss 30-6 as a 1.5-point favorite to live up to their potential.  Now the Owls have had three weeks to get ready for North Texas after more Covid cancelations.

North Texas has had problems of its own.  It has only been able to play three games this season.  The Mean Green lost 31-41 to Southern Miss, the same team that Rice beat by 26 giving them a common opponent.  Then they lost by 28 to Charlotte before beating Middle Tennessee 52-35.  Now they’ve had even more time off than Rice as their last game was played on October 17th.  I think they have to be rusty here having to wait over a month for their next game.

Rice upset North Texas 20-14 as a 7-point home underdog last year.  Now the Owls have 17 starters back from that team while the Mean Green only have 12 starters back.  The Owls are 6-1 ATS int heir last seven games as road underdogs and 8-2 ATS in their last eight road games overall.  The Mean Green are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games overall.  North Texas is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games following a SU win.  Roll with Rice Saturday.

15* App State/Coastal Carolina ESPN 2 Early ANNIHILATOR on Coastal Carolina -4.5

The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers have passed every test that has been put in front of them.  They are 7-0 SU & 5-1-1 ATS this season and outscoring opponents by 21.6 points per game.  They average 37.9 points and 442.3 yards per game offensively and give up just 16.3 points and 309.6 yards per game defensively.  They are the cream of the crop in the Sun Belt.

They went on the road and beat Louisiana-Lafayette, which made the title game the last two seasons.  And now the Chanticleers are ready to beat the defending Sun Belt champs in Appalachian State this weekend.  Not to mention, they have two full weeks to get ready for Appalachian State, so they’ll have a rest and preparation advantage.

Appalachian State has been one of the most overrated teams in the country this year.  They are on their 3rd head coach in three years.  And while they are 6-1 SU, they are just 1-6 ATS failing to live up to expectations week after week.  And they’re once again getting too much respect from oddsmakers this week.

Last week, Appalachian State was fortunate to beat Georgia State 17-13 as an 18.5-point favorite in comeback fashion.  That’s the same Georgia State team that Coastal Carolina beat 51-0.  And making matters worse for the Mountaineers is that QB Zac Thomas was forced to leave that game with a back injury and is questionable to play Saturday.  So this is a beat up team that had to play last week while Coastal Carolina is coming off a bye.

Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Appalachian State) - an excellent offensive team that average 6.2 YPP or more against a team with an average defense that allows 4.8 to 5.6 YPP, in conference games are 35-13 (72.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  

The Mountaineers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall, including 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  The Chanticleers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Take Coastal Carolina Saturday.

20* CFB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Air Force -7.5

The Air Force Falcons opened the season with an impressive 40-7 win over Navy.  Then they had two weeks off due to Covid issues before two straight losses to two good teams in San Jose State and Boise State.  And those games were closer than the final scores showed.  They were only outgained by 3 yards by SJSU in a 6-17 loss and actually outgained Boise State by 25 yards in their 30-49 loss.

Air Force has its triple-option rolling again this season.  The Falcons rushed for 415 yards on a good Boise State defense and have rushed for 330 yards per game and 5.9 per carry thus far this season.  Now they’ve had three weeks to get ready for New Mexico and should hang a big number on a terrible New Mexico defense that gives up 34.7 points and 491.3 yards per game this season.

This is a New Mexico team in rebuilding mode with just nine returning starters for head coach Troy Calhoun.  They have opened 0-3 this season and are getting too much respect from oddsmakers after covering the spread in their last two against Hawaii and Nevada.  They lost 21-38 to San Jose State and gave up 579 yards in defeat.  Air Force only gave up 294 total yards in its loss to SJSU earlier this season.

Air Force won by 22 and 18 points in its last two meetings with New Mexico over the last two seasons.  The Lobos are 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games overall.  New Mexico is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS win.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

Plays against road teams (New Mexico) - off two covers but two SU losses as an underdog, with a losing record on the season are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Falcons roll tonight at home.  Bet Air Force Friday.

15* Tulane/Tulsa AAC ANNIHILATOR on Tulsa -6

Tulsa has already proved it can hang with the best teams in the AAC this season by knocking off UCF as a 20.5-point road underdog, 34-26.  And they played Oklahoma State, arguably the best team in the Big 12, down to the wire in a 7-16 loss as 23.5-point road underdogs.  They also crushed South Florida 42-13 on the road before a shaky win against ECU that probably saw them overlooking the Pirates and looking ahead to last week’s game against SMU.

The Golden Hurricane started slow but finished fast, beating SMU 28-24 last week.  They racked up 455 total yards while limiting a very good SMU offense to just 351, outgaining them by 104 yards.  After getting revenge on the Mustangs, the revenge tour continues this week against Tulane.  The Golden Hurricane have lost the last three meetings in this series and these seniors are desperate to beat the Green Wave for the first time.

Tulane is starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers after winning three straight and going 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  But the schedule has gotten very easy as their last three games have been against Temple, ECU and Army.  And off their physical, misleading win over Army in which they only outgained the Black Knights by 65 yards last week, I think this is a good time to fade them.

Tulane is a tired team right now as it will be playing for a 7th consecutive week and this is a short week to boot with this Thursday night game.  No question Tulsa is going to be the fresher team after having a bye the week prior to SMU.  And this will be just their 5th game for the entire season due to Covid issues.  And the Golden Hurricane have remained remarkably healthy all season.

We have a couple common opponents here to compare these teams to that shows Tulsa is far and away the superior team.  Both have played SMU and UCF.  Tulsa beat UFC 34-26 and was only outgained by 17 yards.  Tulane lost to UCF 34-51 and was outgained by 349 yards in what was an even bigger blowout than the score showed.  Tulsa beat SMU 28-24 and outgained them by 104 yards.  Tulane lost 34-37 to SMU and was outgained by 194 yards and lucky to go to OT.  So Tulsa outgained SMU and UCF by a combined 87 yards, while Tulane was outgained by those two teams by a combined 543 yards.  That’s over a 600-yard difference.

Tulane is 10-26 ATS in its last 36 road games off two or more consecutive ATS wins.  The Green Wave are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs.  The Golden Hurricane are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home meetings with Tulane.  The favorite is 13-2 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  Take Tulsa Thursday.

20* Toledo/Eastern Michigan MAC No-Brainer on Eastern Michigan +6.5

Eastern Michigan has played well this season to start but has come up on the short end of the stick both times.  They lost 23-27 on the road as 5.5-point dogs to Kent State and 31-38 on the road to Ball State as 8-point dogs, covering the number in both games.  Now they get to play their first home game of the season and will be highly motivated for a victory.

I really like what I’ve seen from new EMU QB Parker Hutchison.  He is completing 59.4% of his passes for 491 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 88 yards and four scores.  His dual-threat ability makes him tough to stop and I think he will have plenty of success against Toledo here.

I certainly have my questions about this Toledo team that went 6-6 last year and gave up 32.2 points and 476 yards per game defensively.  They do have 14 starters back and should be improved, but head coach Jason Candle is declining.  He took advantage of the players Matt Campbell recruited before him and went 9-4 and 11-3 in his first two seasons.  But since he has had his players in place, the Rockets have gone just 7-6 and 6-6 the last two seasons.

I’m not willing to give Toledo much respect for its 38-3 win over Bowling Green as a 24-point favorite in the opener.  The Rockets were 24-point favorites in that game, and the Falcons are clearly the worst team in the MAC.  Then last week the Rockets blew a 10-point lead in the final three minutes and lost to Western Michigan.  It will be very hard for them to get back up off the mat in time to face Eastern Michigan tonight.

Toledo is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games.  Eastern Michigan is 24-7 ATS in its last 31 games as an underdog.  The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Take Eastern Michigan Wednesday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Buffalo -30.5

The Buffalo Bulls should be the best team in the MAC this year.  They went 8-5 last season and while they didn’t win the MAC, I would have had them favored over every team in the conference in the title game.  They were 2nd in the MAC with a +138.0 yards per game differential and they only got better as the season went on.

Now head coach Lance Leipold has his best team yet with 15 returning starters, making the Bulls the 16th-most experienced team in the country.  They also got in nine spring practices, which was the second-most in the MAC.  That’s a huge advantage heading into this shortened MAC season.

The Bulls are loaded everywhere on offense with eight returning starters.  They have two 1,000-yard rushers in Jaret Patterson (1,799 yards, 19 TD, 5.8/carry last year) and Kevin Marks (1,035, 8 TD, 4.6/carry).  Each of their top three receivers are back as are their top two quarterbacks.  They return seven starters defensively from a unit that gave up just 21.3 points per game last year.  They are great at getting after opposing quarterbacks, recording 43 sacks last year.

Buffalo got off to a nice start this season with a 49-30 win as a closing 14.5-point favorite at Northern Illinois.  Buffalo led 49-16 with five minutes left in the 4th quarter.  Northern Illinois tacked on two garbage touchdowns in the final five minutes to make the score appear closer than it was.  The Bulls averaged 7.0 yards per play offensively while giving up just 5.0 yards per play to the Huskies.

Then last week the Bulls really put it on Miami Ohio, the defending MAC champs.  They won that game 42-10 and it was every bit the blowout that the final score would suggest.  The Bulls racked up 558 yards on a good Miami defense and only gave up 258 yards, outgaining them by 300 yards.

Now Buffalo takes on the worst team in the MAC in Bowling Green.  The Falcons lost 3-38 at Toledo in their opener and 24-62 at home to Kent State last week.  That’s a 35-point loss to Toledo and a 38-point loss to Kent State.  So now they have to face the best team in the MAC in Buffalo here and the Bulls should have no problem winning this game by 31-plus points to cover this number.

Bowling Green is 1-11 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Bulls are 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall with all eight wins coming by 19 points or more.  The Falcons are 5-21 ATS in their last 26 home games.  Bet Buffalo Tuesday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington State +10.5

Oregon figures to take a big step back this year after a 12-2 season last year that resulted in a Pac-12 title.  Losing QB Justin Herbert is a big blow when you consider how good he has looked with the Los Angeles Chargers in the NFL this season.  They return just three starters on offense and lose all five starters along the offensive line.  They were supposed to have eight starters back on defense, but they lost two starters in CB Thomas Graham and S Brady Breeze for personal reasons.  So they wind up having just nine returning starters.

Oregon caught a huge break in their opener when Stanford QB Davis Mills and his top receiver were both ruled out on the day of the game.  The Ducks won that game 35-14 as 11-point favorites.  But Stanford went 0-for-4 on field goals and came up short on two other trips in Oregon territory.  It was a closer game than the final score suggests.  But since it wound up being a 21-point difference, I think Oregon is being overvalued this week as double-digit road favorites over Washington State.

Nick Rolovich guided Hawaii to a 10-win season last year and a trip to the Mountain West title game.  He parlayed that incredible success into a job at Washington State this year.  And he’s already off to an impressive start with an upset 38-28 road win at Oregon State as a 3-point dog in the opener.  He stepped into a decent situation as the Cougars returned 14 starters this season.

QB Jaden De Laura followed Rolovich from Hawaii and had a great game against Oregon State, throwing for 227 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for 43 yards and a score.  And Washington State’s defense played great for three quarters as it was a 28-7 game late in the third quarter.  But Oregon State dig tack on some garbage time scores to make the final score appear closer than it was.  So again, I think we are getting extra value with Washington State because of that.

Washington State has won four of its last five meetings with Oregon outright with its only loss coming by two points.  Better yet, the Cougars are a perfect 10-0 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Enough said.  Take Washington State Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulsa -2.5

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane have over two weeks to get ready for the SMU Mustangs after last playing East Carolina on Friday, October 30th.  They have had this game circled all offseason after blowing a 30-9 lead in the 4th quarter to SMU last year, only to lose 37-43 in overtime.  This is a game they desperately want.

Tulsa has already proved it can hang with the best teams in the AAC this season by knocking off UCF as a 20.5-point road underdog, 34-26.  And they played Oklahoma State, arguably the best team in the Big 12, down to the wire in a 7-16 loss as 23.5-point road underdogs.  They also crushed South Florida 42-13 on the road before a shaky win against ECU that probably saw them overlooking the Pirates and looking ahead to this game against SMU.

While the Golden Hurricane are rested and ready, the Mustangs are a tired team right now as this will be their 9th game already this season.  It will only be the 5th game for Tulsa.  And the Mustangs will be playing for a 5th consecutive week and their 9th game in 10 weeks.

Tulsa has a very good defense this season, holding opponents to 21.3 points per game, 373 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play.  They are holding their opponents to 9.3 points per game, 74 yards per game and 0.9 yards per play less than their season averages.  SMU is giving up 28.6 points per game, 419.8 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play this season.

And keep in mind that SMU has built up its stats against a soft schedule.  Their seven wins have come against Texas State, North Texas, Stephen F. Austin, Memphis, Tulane, Navy and Temple.  Their lone loss came in emphatic fashion by a final of 13-42 to Cincinnati.  And they only beat Memphis and Tulane by 3 points each, which were their next two toughest games.

SMU is 0-6 ATS when the total is 63.5 to 70 over the last three seasons.  The Mustangs are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games after covering the spread in five or six of their last seven games.  SMU is 15-32 ATS in its last 47 games off a conference win by 10 points or more.  The Golden Hurricane are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games following an ATS loss.  Roll with Tulsa Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston College +14

The Boston College Eagles are live underdogs this week against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.  Just two weeks ago they only lost to Clemson by 6 as 26.5-point underdogs.  So they showed they could play with a team like Clemson.  And that effort will give them the confidence they need to compete with a team like Notre Dame.

This is a massive letdown spot for the Fighting Irish.  They just beat Clemson in double-overtime last week in their biggest game of the season.  That overtime win probably took a lot out of them.  And now they are getting a lot of love being ranked as the No. 2 team in the country.  This is exactly the spot that I love to fade the Fighting Irish.

Boston College will be ‘all in’ this week knowing they have a bye on deck next week.  They would love nothing more than to upset rival Notre Dame.  QB Phil Jurkovec is a former Notre Dame transfer who is out to prove that the Fighting Irish made the wrong decision going with Ian Book over him.  Jurkovec is having a great season with 62.1% completions, over 2,000 passing yards and a 15-to-4 TD/INT ratio.  He has also rushed for three scores on the ground.

The Eagles are 5-3 this season with two of their losses coming by 6 points or less to two of the better teams in the country in Clemson (28-34) and North Carolina (22-26).  Their only blowout loss came to Virginia Tech, and that was a very misleading score as the Eagles lost the turnover battle 5-0.

Boston College is 22-7-1 ATS in its last 30 conference games, clearly being the most underrated team in the ACC over the last several years.  The Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as home underdogs.  The underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia State +16

Appalachian State has a huge game on deck next week against No. 15 Coastal Carolina, which is 7-0 and their top contender to win the Sun Belt.  I think they’ll be looking ahead to that game, and they won’t be giving Georgia State the proper respect they deserve in this contest.  That will allow Georgia State to stay within this massive number.

Keep in mind Georgia State was only a 4-point dog to Coastal Carolina just two weeks ago, and now they are 16-point dogs to Appalachian State.  That’s some line value folks.  And they bounced back with a 52-34 home win over Louisiana Monroe.  Appalachian State also beat Louisiana Monroe by 18 points two weeks ago, 31-13.  And they failed to cover against Texas State in a 21-point win as 21.5-point favorites last week.  

Georgia State is a lot better than both of those squads and could easily be 5-1 instead of 3-3 this season with two of their losses coming to Louisiana 31-34 in OT and Arkansas State 52-59.  They also upset ECU from the AAC and upset Troy on the road as well.  The Panthers boast an offense that puts up 36.7 points per game this season behind a balanced attack that average 215 rushing yards and 198 passing yards per game.

The Mountaineers are now 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They are also 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as favorites.  This team has been overvalued all season and continues to be this week.  And it’s a bad spot for Appalachian State with their game of the year on deck against Coastal Carolina next week.  Take Georgia State Saturday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on West Virginia -3

The West Virginia Mountaineers are just 4-3 this season.  They are flying under the radar in the Big 12 and are the most underrated team in the conference in my opinion.  They have the stats to back it up, too.

The Mountaineers were only outgained by 3 yards in their 13-17 loss at Texas as 6.5-point dogs last week.  They outgained Texas Tech by 90 yards in their 27-34 road loss.  And they outgained Oklahoma State by 11 yards in their 13-27 road loss.  So all three losses have come on the road for the Mountaineers.

Now West Virginia is back home where they are 4-0 this season and outscoring opponents by 25.0 points per game.  What I really like about West Virginia is that they are outgaining their opponents by 178.9 yards per game.  Their offense averages 449.9 yards per game and their defense gives up just 271.0 yards per game, giving them the best defense in the Big 12 to this point.

TCU is coming off two straight wins over Big 12 bottom feeders in Baylor and Texas Tech.  They rushed for 247 yards and only threw for 138 against Baylor.  They rushed for 270 yards and only threw for 73 against Texas Tech.  So they have been a run-heavy offense, which plays right into West Virginia’s hands defensively.  The Mountaineers only allow 109 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry this season.

West Virginia is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with TCU.  The Mountaineers weren’t very good last year, and they still won outright 20-17 over TCU as 14-point road dogs.  In their last two trips to West Virginia, TCU has lost by 37 and 24 points.  Bet West Virginia Saturday. 

20* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on East Carolina +28

The Cincinnati Bearcats are getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers now that they are 6-0 and currently ranked 7th in the country in the AP Poll.  Now they are four-touchdown favorites over East Carolina this week and it’s time to fade them.  The betting public has caught onto this team by now and it’s time to ’sell high’ on the Bearcats.

It’s also a great time to ‘buy low’ on the East Carolina Pirates.  They are just 1-5 this season but have been pretty competitive as they are only getting outscored by 8.0 points per game on the season.  They got robbed of a win as 17-point dogs in a 30-34 loss to Tulsa as the Golden Hurricane had three calls go their way on the final drive.  The AAC came out and said the officials made a mistake after the game.  And keep in mind that’s a very good Tulsa team that upset UCF and nearly upset Oklahoma State.

I think the Pirates suffered a hangover from that defeat last week, losing 21-38 at home to Tulane.  That’s a Tulane team that is improving rapidly as well.  And now ECU still hasn’t lost a game by more than 23 points this season despite playing a tougher schedule than Cincinnati has.

Cincinnati has benefited from a home-heavy schedule with six of their first seven games at home.  And it’s a terrible spot for Cincinnati.  They are coming off three straight wins and covers over AAC contenders in SMU, Memphis and Houston, and now they have a road game at UCF on deck.  That makes this the classic sandwich game for the Bearcats.  I think they’ll be taking ECU lightly here, which will allow the Pirates to stay within the number.

These teams do have a common opponent in South Florida.  ECU beat South Florida 44-24 on the road back on October 10th.  Cincinnati only beat South Florida 28-7 at home as 22-point favorites in a game that was a lot closer than the final score.  They only gained 332 total yards in that game and outgained USF by only 41 yards.

East Carolina does have a good offense that puts up 29.2 points per game, which will allow them to stay within this number as they will put together drives and score on this Cincinnati defense.  I really like ECU QB Holton Ahlers, who is completing 63.1% of his passes with a 12-to-5 TD/INT ratio.  He is very mobile and his mobility will help him escape this strong Cincinnati defensive line when he drops back to pass.

The Pirates are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as road underdogs.  The Bearcats are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  Finally, East Carolina only lost 43-46 at home to Cincinnati as a 24.5-point underdog last year.  The Pirates had 608 total yards in that defeat.  Ahlers threw for 535 yards and four touchdowns while also rushing for a score in defeat.  Bet East Carolina Friday.

20* Toledo/WMU ESPN No-Brainer on Western Michigan -2.5

The Western Michigan Broncos had one of the best recruiting classes in the MAC this year. They also got in eight spring practices, which was the third-most in the conference.  They are legit contenders to win the conference this year despite having just 11 returning starters.

That was evident when they blasted Akron 58-13 in the opener.  They averaged 8.3 yards per play on what was expected to be an improve Akron team. They held the Zips to just 256 total yards and an average of only 4.0 yards per play.  Sophomore QB Kaleb Eleby threw for 262 yards and three touchdowns on only 16 attempts, so he couldn’t have been any better.

I certainly have my questions about this Toledo team that went 6-6 last year and gave up 32.2 points and 476 yards per game defensively.  They do have 14 starters back and should be improved, but head coach Jason Candle is declining.  He took advantage of the players Matt Campbell recruited before him and went 9-4 and 11-3 in his first two seasons.  But since he has had his players in place, the Rockets have went just 7-6 and 6-6 the last two seasons.

I’m not willing to give Toledo much respect for its 38-3 win over Bowling Green as a 24-point favorite in the opener.  The Rockets were 24-point favorites in that game, and the Falcons are clearly the worst team in the MAC.  I think that result has the Rockets overvalued here with the Broncos only having to lay 2.5 points in this game at home.

Western Michigan wants revenge from a 24-31 road loss to Toledo last year.  And all of the Broncos’ losses came on the road last season as they went a perfect 6-0 SU at home.  Now they get the Rockets at home this time around.

The Rockets are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games.  Toledo is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games as an underdog.  The Broncos are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight home games.  The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Western Michigan Wednesday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Buffalo -9.5

The Buffalo Bulls should be the best team in the MAC this year.  They went 8-5 last season and while they didn’t win the MAC, I would have had them favored over every team in the conference in the title game.  They were 2nd in the MAC with a +138.0 yards per game differential and they only got better as the season went on.

Now head coach Lance Leipold has his best team yet with 15 returning starters, making the Bulls the 16th-most experienced team in the country.  They also got in nine spring practices, which was the second-most in the MAC.  That’s a huge advantage heading into this shortened MAC season.

The Bulls are loaded everywhere on offense with eight returning starters.  They have two 1,000-yard rushers in Jaret Patterson (1,799 yards, 19 TD, 5.8/carry last year) and Kevin Marks (1,035, 8 TD, 4.6/carry).  Each of their top three receivers are back as are their top two quarterbacks.  They return seven starters defensively from a unit that gave up just 21.3 points per game last year.  They are great at getting after opposing quarterbacks, recording 43 sacks last year.

Buffalo got off to a nice start this season with a 49-30 win as a closing 14.5-point favorite at Northern Illinois.  Buffalo led 49-16 with five minutes left in the 4th quarter.  Northern Illinois tacked on two garbage touchdowns in the final five minutes to make the score appear closer than it was.  The Bulls averaged 7.0 yards per play offensively while giving up just 5.0 yards per play to the Huskies.

Miami Ohio is coming off a misleading 38-31 win over Ball State.  The Redhawks gave up a whopping 478 total yards to the Cardinals and 6.8 yards per play.  They only averaged 5.7 yards per play on offense against a bad Ball State defense.  They are overvalued now after winning that game when they really shouldn’t have.

Also, I think the motivation favors Buffalo here.  Miami Ohio came out of nowhere to win the MAC last season and they were probably no better than a middle of the pack team.  They had a misleading 34-20 win over Buffalo last year that was a key to them making the title game.  Buffalo lost the turnover battle 4-0 in that game and found a way to lose despite rushing for 309 yards and holding Miami Ohio to just 265 total yards.  It’s revenge time tonight as the Bulls flex their muscle and win this game by double-digits.

Buffalo is now 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall with all seven wins coming by 19 points or more.  The Bulls are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games off a win by 10 points or more against a conference opponent.  Buffalo is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 home games.  The Bulls are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 conference games.  Bet Buffalo Tuesday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Stanford +10.5

The Stanford Cardinal are big bounce-back candidates in 2020.  They had won at least eight games in each of the previous eight seasons under head coach David Shaw.  But they fell to 4-8 last season due to injuries and attrition.  Now they go from having just nine returning starters last year all the way up to 16 returning starters this year and now they’re a veteran team.

Stanford boasts one of the best quarterbacks in the Pac-12 in Davis Mills.  He completed 65.6% of his passes last year after taking over for KJ Costello.  He was a Top 5 recruit coming out of high school.  And the Cardinal should get back to running the football this season with four returning starters along the offensive line and top recruits Austin Jones and EJ Smith in the backfield.  The defense will also be a lot better after an aberration year in which they gave up 29.8 points per game last season.

Oregon figures to take a big step back this year after a 12-2 season last year that resulted in a Pac-12 title.  Losing QB Justin Herbert is a big blow when you consider how good he has looked with the Los Angeles Chargers in the NFL this season.  They return just three starters on offense and lose all five starters along the offensive line.  They were supposed to have eight starters back on defense, but they lost two starters in CB Thomas Graham and S Brady Breeze for personal reasons.  So they wind up having just nine returning starters.

The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Ducks are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as home favorites.  Bet Stanford Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tennessee -1.5

This is a great spot to back the Tennessee Vols.  They are coming off three straight losses, so it’s a ‘buy low’ opportunity.  Two of those losses were to two of the best teams in the country in Alabama and Georgia.  And the other was a misleading loss to a quality Kentucky team in which they gave up just 294 yards to the Wildcats but committed four turnovers.

Now the Vols are coming off their bye week, so they’ve had two weeks to recover.  And you know they were practicing with a chip on their shoulder during their time off and will bring their best effort Saturday to try and end this skid.  And they are are taking a big step down in competition here against Arkansas.

The Razorbacks come in way overvalued after a perfect 5-0 ATS start this season.  They were down 42-17 late in the 4th quarter last week to Texas A&M but scored two touchdowns in the final minutes to cover the 14.5-point spread and remain unbeaten ATS. Now they are basically a pick ‘em here against a team like Tennessee that has way more talent than they do.

Tennessee is 21-5 ATS in its last 26 road games off two straight games where they forced one or fewer turnovers.  The Vols are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 games as road favorites of 7 points or less.  Roll with Tennessee Saturday.

15* Texas A&M/South Carolina ESPN ANNIHILATOR on South Carolina +10

It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the South Carolina Gamecocks off their 24-52 road loss to LSU last time out.  But they’ve had two weeks to get ready for Texas A&M and will have been practicing with a chip on their shoulder leading up to this game.  Look for them to give Texas A&M a run for its money in this game.

South Carolina has played well at home this season.  They only lost to Tennessee 27-31 as 3.5-point dogs and upset Auburn 30-22 as 3-point dogs.  And we just saw Auburn blast LSU last week 48-11, so that win over Auburn looks even better, and the loss to LSU was clearly just an aberration.  South Carolina also played Florida pretty tough on the road earlier this season and blasted Vanderbilt, so that loss to LSU was their only bad performance this year.

Texas A&M is getting too much respect from oddsmakers here as a double-digit road favorite.  They lost by 28 at Alabama and beat a bad Mississippi State team 28-14 in their previous two road games.  They failed to cover last week against Arkansas at home and gave up 461 total yards to the Razorbacks.  

South Carolina’s improved offense will move the football and score points on this Texas A&M defense that has now allowed 31-plus points in three of their five games this season.  The only exceptions were against Vanderbilt and Mississippi State.  And keep in mind they only beat Vanderbilt 17-12, while South Carolina blasted Vanderbilt 41-7.

The Gamecocks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  Take South Carolina Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State +13

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on Kansas State this week off their worst performance of the season last week in a 10-37 road loss to West Virginia.  I had West Virginia in that game because I believed the Mountaineers to be way underrated with the stats they had put up this season.  And it proved to be the case as the Mountaineers dominated from start to finish.

But now Kansas State comes back as a 13-point home dog to Oklahoma State, a team that is overrated in my eyes.  The Cowboys are 4-1 this season and finally lost their first game last week to Texas.  Spencer Sanders is a turnover machine and the Cowboys lost that game due to committing four turnovers.  You just cannot trust Sanders to hold onto the football.

Kansas State had only committed two turnovers in their first five games.  But they uncharacteristically gave it away three times against West Virginia last week, which cost them.  Look for the Wildcats to get back to taking care of the football and winning in the areas that they can control, which will keep them in this game for four quarters.

Kansas State is 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home meetings with Oklahoma State.  The Cowboys will be playing just their second road game this season.  Their first was at Kansas, which doesn’t count.  This is their stiffest test of the season yet in my opinion even though they were small home favorites over WVU, Iowa State and Texas.  K-State has faced the gauntlet with road games at Oklahoma, TCU and WVU winning the first two of those road games outright as 28-point and 11.5-point dogs.

The Wildcats are 14-1 ATS in their last 15 games off a blowout road loss by 21 points or more.  Kansas State is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog.  The Wildcats are 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games following an ATS loss.  Take Kansas State Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Liberty +15

What more does Liberty have to do to get some respect from oddsmakers? They have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS this season under second-year head coach Hugh Freeze, who is making the most of his second chance here after getting ousted from Ole Miss.  This guy is just a great recruiter and has underrated talent again here, including Auburn QB transfer Malik Willis.

There has been nothing fluky about Liberty’s 5-0 start either as their stats have been off the charts.  They are scoring 40 points per game and averaging 494 yards per game on offense.  They are giving up just 24.2 points per game and 303 yards per game on defense.  They are outscoring opponents by 15.8 points per game and outgaining them by nearly 200 yards per game.

Liberty already has a win over an ACC team in Syracuse.  They beat the Orange as 3-point road favorites by a final of 38-21 a few weeks back.  And now the Flames are in the perfect spot here with two weeks to prepare for Virginia Tech as they are coming off their bye week.  Meanwhile, Virginia Tech has to be a tired team as it will be playing for a 7th straight week here.

The fatigue is starting to show defensively for the Hokies.  They are giving up 30.5 points per game and 459 yards per game this season.  They were fortunate to win last week 42-35 over Louisville as they gave up 548 yards and were outgained by 82 yards, but they won the turnover battle 3-0.

Liberty is now 28-13 ATS in its last 41 games overall.  Hugh Freeze is 58-35 ATS as a head coach in his career, making him clearly one of the most underrated coaches in college football.  Justin Fuente is 1-8 ATS vs. good rushing teams that average 230 or more rushing yards per game as the coach of Virginia Tech.

The Hokies give up a whopping 195 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry this season. Well, Liberty averages 257 rushing yards per game and 5.6 per carry.  The Flames will be able to run the ball on the Hokies and have a legitimate shot to win this game outright.  Getting more than two touchdowns with them is a gift given the spot with the Flames off their bye week.  Bet Liberty Saturday.

20* BYU/Boise State FS1 No-Brainer on BYU -3

The BYU Cougars are legitimately one of the best teams in the country.  They are off to a 7-0 start this season while also going a sensational 6-1 ATS in those seven games.  Oddsmakers haven’t been able to catch up with them, and I don’t think they have here either in their biggest game of the season against Boise State.  They should be more than 3-point favorites.

There has been nothing fluky about this start for BYU.  They are loaded on offense with a unit that is putting up 44.4 points and 527.7 yards per game.  They are also outstanding on defense, giving up just 13.4 points and 281.3 yards per game.  They are outscoring their opponents by 31.0 points per game and outgaining them by 246.4 yards per game.

I think the verdict is still out on Boise State.  They are usually the best team in the Mountain West year in and year out, but they have only played two games this season against very suspect competition.  And they only returned 11 starters this year.  They beat a bad Utah State team 42-13, which is the same Utah State team that went on to lose 38-7 to San Diego State last week.  And they beat Air Force 49-30 but still gave up 415 rushing yards in that game and were outgained by 25 yards.  That’s the same Air Force team that was upset 17-6 by San Jose State the game prior.

Zach Wilson is having a monster season at quarterback for BYU.  He has thrown for 2,152 yards with a 19-to-2 TD/INT ratio while competing 74.6% of his passes.  He is legitimately one of the best quarterbacks in the country.  And he wants revenge from 2 years ago when BYU lost 16-21 at Boise State.  Wilson drove the Cougars down from their own 17-yard line to the Boise State 2 before being sacked on the final play of the game.  You can bet he and his Cougars teammates have not forgotten the pain from that defeat.

Boise State doesn’t know who will start at quarterback for them on Friday yet.  Hank Bachmeier is supposed to be their starter, but he didn’t travel with the team against Air Force likely due to Covid-19.  Junior transfer Jack Sears played well in his place, but he would clearly be a downgrade from Bachmeier if he cannot go again.  Either way, I still think BYU rolls no matter who is under center for the Broncos.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Boise State) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game against a team that outgained their last two opponents by 125 or more yards are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Cougars are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet BYU Friday.

15* Wyoming/Colorado State MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on Wyoming -3.5

Wyoming’s loss to Nevada wasn’t a bad loss in the opener.  Nevada is one of the best teams in the Mountain West this year and oddsmakers don’t realize it.  So Wyoming was a 2.5-point favorite but only lost 34-37 and showed a lot of heart in coming back in that game.

Then last week the Cowboys’ true colors showed in their dominant 31-7 win over Hawaii as 3-point underdogs.  The Cowboys dominated that game, racking up 393 total yards while holding a very good Hawaii offense to just 233 total yards.  They are a power running team that can run on anyone as they had 281 rushing yards against the Warriors.  And they have a great defense year in and year out.

Colorado State is not a team you want to back early in the season.  They are a team in transition under first-year head coach Steve Addazio, who got ousted from Boston College last year.  They don’t have the players to run the schemes he wants to run.  They have been a spread passing team the last few years, but Addazio wants to bring over his power running game from Boston College.

The Rams got off to a rough start this season, losing 17-38 at Fresno State despite being a 2.5-point favorite.  That’s the same Fresno State team that lost 34-19 to Hawaii in their opener, and we just saw how Hawaii fared against Wyoming last week.  It’s not always A plus B equals C, but it’s definitely worth noting how those teams did against Hawaii to gauge how this game will play out.

Wyoming simply has Colorado State’s number.  The Cowboys are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Rams with three of those wins coming by double-digits.  And Wyoming was never more than a 4.5-point favorite in any of the four and were an underdog in two of them.  Once again, the price is too cheap on the Cowboys here.

Wyoming is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as road favorites.  Wyoming is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games as a favorite.  Take Wyoming Thursday.

15* MAC Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Buffalo -13

The Buffalo Bulls should be the best team in the MAC this year.  They went 8-5 last season and while they didn’t win the MAC, I would have had them favored over every other team in the conference.  They were 2nd in the MAC with a +138.0 yards per game differential and only got better as the season went on.

Now head coach Lance Leipold has his best team yet with 15 returning starters, making the Bulls the 16th-most experienced team in the country.  They also got in nine spring practices, which was the second-most in the MAC.  That’s a huge advantage heading into a shortened season like this.

The Bulls are loaded everywhere on offense with eight returning starters.  They have two 1,000-yard rushers in Jaret Patterson (1,799 yards, 19 TD, 5.8/carry last year) and Kevin Marks (1,035, 8 TD, 4.6/carry).  Each of their top three receivers are back as are their top two quarterbacks.  Defensively they return seven starters from a unit that gave up just 21.3 points per game last year and know how to get after opposing quarterbacks with 43 sacks last year.

Northern Illinois is a mess.  Thomas Hammock had to take over late in the process last year.  The Huskies went just 5-7 with four losses by 18 points or more.  And now he returns just 10 starters and loses a ton of players to the transfer portal.  Now this is going to be a very young team this year with five projected freshmen starters and five sophomores projected to start.  It’s going to get worse before it gets better for the Huskies.

The Bulls are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 conference games.  Buffalo is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  The Huskies are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as home underdogs.  Those extra spring practices plus all the experience returning will benefit the Bulls in a big way early in the 2020 season.  Take Buffalo Wednesday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Kent State -4.5

Sean Lewis has Kent State on the rise.  He led them to their first bowl games since 2012 in just his second season on the job last year.  The won their final four games of the season all in upset fashion over Buffalo, Ball State, Eastern Michigan and then Utah State in the bowl.

Now the Golden Flashes have 13 returning starters and should pick up right where they left off last year.  They have the best QB in the MAC in senior Dustin Crum, who completed 69.2% of his passes for 2,625 yards with a ridiculous 20-to-2 TD/INT ratio last year.  Crum also rushed for 707 yards and 6 scores on the ground.  Four starters are back on the offensive line along with leading receiver Isaiah McKoy.  They do return just six starters on defense, but they get each of their top three tacklers back.

Chris Creighton deserves some credit for getting a program like Eastern Michigan to a bowl game in three of the last four seasons.  But he has his hands full with this team in 2020.  The Eagles only return 11 starters and not much talent.  They lose QB Mike Glass, leading rusher Shaq Vann and leading receiver Arthur Jackson.  They lose three of their top four tacklers on defense including two guys who had 108 and 128 tackles.  This is a young team with four freshmen projected to start.

The Golden Flashes are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They come into 2020 with a ton of momentum off their impressive finish last year.  Bet Kent State Wednesday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Texas Tech +15

It looks like the betting public is back on the Oklahoma bandwagon after back-to-back wins and covers over Texas in overtime and TCU 33-14.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Sooners now laying more than two touchdowns on the road to the Texas Tech Red Raiders.

Texas Tech has played very well at home in Big 12 play this year.  The Red Raiders held a 15-point lead in the final minutes against Texas but found a way to lost 56-63 in overtime.  But they redeemed themselves last week beating an underrated West Virginia team 34-27 as 2.5-point home dogs.  And that gives them the confidence to hang with Oklahoma here.

Texas Tech can match Oklahoma score for score.  You just can’t trust this Oklahoma team to lay these kinds of numbers with how terrible their defense is.  They are giving up 33.5 points per game in conference play and even allowed 38 points to Kansas State and 37 to Iowa State.

Texas Tech wants revenge after eight straight losses to the Sooners in this series.  And the last three in Lubbock have been very tight with the Sooners winning by 5, 7 and 12 points.  I think we see more of the same here with this game decided by 14 points or fewer.

Oklahoma is 6-22 ATS in its last 28 games vs. teams that allow 8 or more passing yards per attempt.  Lincoln Riley is 1-8 ATS vs. teams that allow a 62% completion percentage or worse as the coach of the Sooners.  Oklahoma is 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games.  The Red Raiders are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games as home underdogs.  Roll with Texas Tech Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on West Virginia -3.5

This is the classic unranked team favored over the ranked team situation.  Since 2017, unranked teams favored by 4 points or fewer against ranked teams have gone 11-2 SU & 11-2 ATS.  I don’t play every one of these situations, but this one makes sense for the following reasons.

Kansas State is 4-1 despite getting outgained in four of their five games this season.  And the only team they outgained was Kansas, and that was only by 61 yards last week in a very misleading final score.  The Wildcats are getting outgained by 56.2 yards per game on the season.

Unlike Kansas State, West Virginia is much better than its 3-2 record would indicate.  The Mountaineers have outgained all five of their opponents this season.  They are outgunning teams by nearly 200 yards per game.  They are averaging 460.8 yards per game on offense and giving up just 261.8 yards per game on defense.  They are probably the single-most underrated team in the Big 12 this season.

Kansas State was able to get past TCU and Kansas without starting QB Skyler Thompson. But this is the game where his loss finally shows up.  New starter Will Howard has been able to manage the game without him, but he’s going to have to step up and make more plays if the Wildcats are to win this week.  And I just don’t think he has it in him.  He completed just 42.1% of his passes for 117 yards with no touchdowns and an interception against TCU.

West Virginia is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games as a home favorite.  The Mountaineers win and win big here to hand the Wildcats their first conference loss of the season.  Take West Virginia Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Memphis/Cincinnati OVER 55

The oddsmakers have set this total too low for Saturday between Memphis and Cincinnati in a huge AAC showdown.  The weather looks like perfect scoring conditions with a temperature in the 50s, sunny and only 5-10 MPH winds.  This game should sail OVER the total Saturday.

Memphis is a dead nuts OVER team.  They score 38.8 points per game and put up 569.8 yards per game this season.  They give up 33.0 points per game and 567.8 yards per game on the year.  Their style will lead Cincinnati to have to try and get in a shootout with them.

The Bearcats clearly have a great defense and that showed last week in their 42-13 win at SMU.  But that was an SMU team that just lost their top receiver to injury.  Memphis has an offense that is just loaded with talent everywhere and will find a way to hang a big number on this Cincinnati defense.  And the Bearcats can keep pace as they are averaging 37.3 points per game on the season.

The OVER is 12-3 in Tigers last 15 games as an underdog.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* Sun Belt GAME OF THE YEAR on Georgia State +3

The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers are 5-0 this season and ranked No. 20 in the country.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on this unbeaten team as they lose their first game of the season against a very underrated Georgia State squad Saturday.

Coastal Carolina lost starting QB Grant McCall to an injury last week and were still able to beat Georgia Southern.  McCall is doubtful this week, and I don’t give them much of a chance to beat Georgia State without him.  McCall has an 11-to-1 TD/INT ratio this season and has rushed for 184 yards and three scores.  It’s a huge loss to say the least even though it didn’t matter last week because Georgia Southern wasn’t preparing for backup Fred Payton.  Now with a week of game film on Payton, Georgia State will be prepared.

Georgia State is very close to being 4-0 this season.  They lost to Louisiana-Lafayette in overtime 31-34.  They crushed East Carolina 49-29 as a 2-point dog.  They lost to Arkansas State 52-59 on the road in a game they deserved to win.  And they went on the road and upset Troy 36-34 as 1.5-point dogs.  The markets have mis-priced this team all season as they have been a dog in all four games against a brutal schedule.

Coastal Carolina is a team that prefers to run the football in averaging 44 rushing attempts for 188 yards per game and 4.3 per carry this season.  Well, Georgia State has been the best team in the Sun Belt against the run, giving up just 97 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry.

I just like Georgia State head coach Shawn Elliott who has gotten this team to a bowl game in two of his three seasons on the job.  And this is his best team yet with 16 returning starters.  The offense has great balance with 237 rushing yards per game and 229 passing yards per game.  New starting QB Cornelius Brown is a great dual-threat with 917 passing yards and a 9-to-4 TD/INT ratio to go with 186 rushing yards and four scores.

Plays on home teams (Georgia State) - a great rushing team averaging at least 4.9 yards per rush against a good rushing team averaging between 4.3 and 4.8 yards, after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards last game are 35-10 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Georgia State Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston College +32

Note: I still like Boston College as a 20* play at the new opening line of +24 since the news that Trevor Lawrence has been announced out with Covid-19.  It’s a 20* all the way down to +21.

Boston College just continues to be a money maker every year.  They are 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS this season.  They are coming off a 21-point win over Georgia Tech last week.  Their only two losses this season came to North Carolina and Virginia Tech, which are two of the best teams in the ACC.

They only lost 22-26 to North Carolina and were only outgained by 48 yards, which was one of their most impressive performances of the season.  And their loss to Virginia Tech was very misleading as they were only outgained by 26 yards in that contest, but they committed five turnovers which led to the blowout.  They can hang with Clemson here.

Clemson only beat a terrible Syracuse team by 26 last week as a 47-point favorite.  And that was even with winning the turnover battle 4-1 for the game.  Now this is a terrible spot for Clemson.  They have a huge game on deck next week at Notre Dame.  The Fighting Irish are unbeaten and the No. 4 ranked team in the country.  

They will clearly be looking ahead to that game.  They won’t be looking to play their starters late in this one if it gets out of hand, so the back door will always be open if we need it.  But I fully expect Boston College to be covering wire-to-wire and giving Clemson a run for its money.  The Tigers’ main goal will be making sure everyone is healthy heading into the Notre Dame game.  And obviously, not having the best player in the country in Lawrence is a huge downgrade and worth more than the 7-8 points the oddsmakers have adjusted for his loss.

The Eagles are a sensational 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 ACC games.  Boston College is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games as a road underdog.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

20* Hawaii/Wyoming FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 60

The Wyoming Cowboys have been a dead nuts UNDER team under 7th-year head coach Craig Bohl.  They have an elite defense and a terrible offense seemingly year in and year out.  And I believe that to be the case again in 2020.

Indeed, Wyoming has scored just 25.4 PPG, 20.7 PPG and 23.5 PPG the last three years, respectively.  But the Cowboys have only allowed 17.8 PPG, 22.0 PPG and 17.5 PPG the last three years, respectively, as well.

The 34-37 loss to Nevada in the opener has this total inflated tonight.  But Nevada has one of the best offenses in the Mountain West this year under Jay Norvell with 10 starters back on that side of the ball.  They lit up this Wyoming defense, which wasn’t prepared for them.  And Wyoming had to throw the ball around the yard to try and play catch up, which isn’t their style.

Look for Wyoming to get back to their preferred game plan, which is to run the football and play elite defense.  The last two years Wyoming averaged 215 rushing yards per game and only 136 passing in 2019 and 199 rushing and 131 passing in 2018.  They clearly have QB problems again this year after starter Sean Chambers went out with a leg injury early against Nevada.  Backup Levi Williams went just 16-of-31 passing in his absence and looked very inaccurate.

Hawaii scored 34 points on a bad Fresno State defense in the opener, but their defense came to play in limiting the Bulldogs to just 19 points.  The offense is learning a new system under first-year head coach Todd Graham and the defense may have to carry the way early.

The last two matchups in this series went way UNDER the total.  They combined for just 30 points in a 17-13 home victory for Hawaii in 2018.  And the year prior they were tied 21-21 at the end of regulation before Wyoming won 28-21 in overtime.

Wyoming is 17-3 UNDER in its last 20 home games after playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored.  Again, this number is inflated after their 71-point outburst against Nevada last week.  It's also going to be cold in Laramie Friday night with 15-25 MPH winds.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* South Alabama/Georgia Southern ESPN No-Brainer on South Alabama +4

I’ve been a lot more impressed with South Alabama than Georgia Southern this season despite both teams having identical 3-2 records.  The Jaguars have played the much tougher schedule and have exceeded expectations in four of their five games by going 4-1 ATS.

Georgia Southern is 3-2, but its three wins have come against Campbell, LA Monroe and UMass which are three of the worst teams they could have possibly faced.  And they only beat Campbell by a single point 27-26 as 34.5-point favorites.  They also only beat LA Monroe 35-30 as 19.5-point favorites.

That gives them a common opponent.  Both have faced Louisiana-Monroe this season.  South Alabama crushed LA-Monroe 38-14 while Georgia Southern only beat them by 5.  The wrong team is favored in this Sun Belt showdown tonight.

Plays against favorite of 3.5 to 10 points (GA Southern) - off a road loss, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 33-8 (80.5%) ATS since 1992.

The Jaguars are 6-1 ATS in their last seven conference games.  South Alabama is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after allowing more than 280 passing yards last game.  Bet South Alabama Thursday.

15* Michigan/Minnesota Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +3

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are coming off an impressive 11-2 season in PJ Fleck’s third year on the job last season.  It concluded with an upset win over Auburn in the Outback Bowl.  Fleck is proving he is one of the best coaches in college football with what he did at Western Michigan and now what he’s already doing at Minnesota.

Fleck welcomes back 13 starters this season.  He’ll have yet another great offense with nine starters back from a unit that put up 34.1 points and 432 yards per game.  The defense will take a step back with only four starters back, but Fleck has fielded a good defense in all three of his seasons here not once allowing more than 26.5 points per game, and roughly 22 points per game in two of the three seasons.

Jim Harbaugh remains one of the most overrated head coaches in the country.  Last year Michigan was supposed to win the Big Ten with all they had returning, but they fell flat and finished 9-4 after getting crushed by Alabama in the bowl.  Now this is one of his worst, least-experienced teams yet with only 11 returning starters.  The Wolverines lose their top three tacklers on defense and QB Shea Patterson.  They will be going with Dylan McCaffrey, who did not play well in limited action last year at quarterback.

Since 2006, Michigan is 1-20 SU on the road vs. ranked teams and losing by an average of 15 points per game.  The Wolverines are also 6-15 ATS in this spot and failing to cover by 8 points per game.  Enough said.  Bet Minnesota Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on South Carolina/LSU OVER 55

Many expected LSU’s offense to drop off dramatically without Joe Burrow this season.  But they have been just fine on that side of the ball this season.  The problem has been on the defensive side for the Tigers.  So I like the OVER 55 points here in this matchup with South Carolina.

LSU is scoring 38.7 points and averaging 467.3 yards per game this season.  Defensively, the Tigers have been pitiful in giving up 32.0 points and 494.7 yards per game.  So they are combining with their opponents for 70.7 points per game this season, which is much higher than this 55-point total.

South Carolina is improved offensively this season in averaging 30.5 points per game.  Their defense has been average in giving up 24.5 points per game.  The Gamecocks will get their points against this LSU defense, but they will be up against the best offense they have faced this season maybe outside Florida, which lit them up for 38 points.

The OVER is 8-1 in Gamecocks last nine games after gaining fewer than 170 passing yards in their previous game.  The OVER is 4-1 in Tigers last five games overall.  The OVER is 4-0 in Tigers last four games after allowing more than 450 yards in their previous game.  The forecast is great scoring conditions too with 84 degrees and only 7 MPH wins Saturday in Baton Rouge.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Notre Dame/Pitt ACC No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +11

It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Pittsburgh Panthers this week.  They have lost three straight after opening the season 3-0.  Two of the losses came by exactly one point each, so they are very close to being a 5-1 team.

Last week they failed to cover as 11.5-point closing dogs in a 12-point loss to Miami.  Me and my clients cashed in Pitt +13.5 earlier in the week, so they cashed for us.  And I’m back on them again this week for many of the same reason.

Like I stated before, Pitt could easily be 5-1 right now and are undervalued because of their 3-3 record.  They have one of the best defenses in the country, which keeps them in games.  They give up just 20.3 points, 275 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play on the season.

Pitt’s offense has been shaky at times, but they are still putting up a solid 29.3 points per game.  I know starting QB Kenny Pickett did not play last week and is questionable to return this week.  But backup Joey Yellen played well against a good Miami defense last week.  He threw for 277 yards and a touchdown in his Pitt debut.  Another week of practice here will do the Arizona State transfer wonders.  And there’s a chance Pickett plays, which would only be a bonus.

This is as much of a fade of Notre Dame as it is a play on Pitt this week.  The Fighting Irish are ranked 3rd in the country right now, but they are nowhere near the 3rd-best team in the country.  It has them overvalued being ranked this high.

Notre Dame only beat Duke by 14, failed to cover as 20.5-point favorites against Florida State and only beat Louisville by 5 last week as 15.5-point favorites.  That gives Pitt and Notre Dame a common opponent in Louisville.  Pitt beat Louisville 23-20 but it was a bigger blowout than the score would indicate.  The Panthers outgained the Cardinals by 153 yards.  Notre Dame only outgained Louisville by 105 yards in their 12-7 win last week.

So you could make the argument that Pitt is actually the better team based on that head-to-head comparison.  And they certainly aren’t 11 points worse than Notre Dame.  Their defense will keep them in this game, just as it did last time these teams met in 2018.  Pitt only lost 14-19 as 21-point road underdogs.  The Panthers are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The underdog is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Now Pitt gets Notre Dame at home, and this will be the first road game of the season for the Fighting Irish, which is always a tough situation.

Notre Dame is 9-25 ATS in its last 34 games vs. good defensive teams that give up 285 or fewer yards per game.  The Panthers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Pitt is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games after scoring less than 20 points in its previous game.  There’s a ton of value on the Panthers catching double-digits at home this weekend.  Take Pittsburgh Saturday.

20* Conference USA GAME OF THE MONTH on Rice -3.5

The Rice Owls should be one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  Mike Bloomgren came over from Stanford and has turned the Owls into a poor man’s version of the Cardinal.  And now Bloomgren is in Year 3 with all of his players in place to run his schemes.  They have 17 returning starters.

After starting 0-9 last year with four losses by a single score, the Owls went 3-0 inter final three games with upset victories over Middle Tennessee and North Texas as well as a crushing of UTEP.  Now the Owls have a ton of momentum heading into 2020 and can’t wait to show the college football world how improved they are.  I like their chances of making a bowl game for the first time since 2014.

Now the Owls finally get to play their opener against one of the worst teams in college football in Middle Tennessee, a team they upset last year as 14-point dogs.  Middle Tennessee is 1-5 this season with its only victory coming against a bad FIU team by a final of 31-28.  They are getting outscored by 15.7 points per game on the season.

Rice is a power-running team that will be able to run the football at will on a soft Middle Tennessee defense that is giving up 256 rushing yards per game and 5.6 per carry.  They allowed 52 points, 768 total yards and 462 rushing yards to a terrible North Texas team last week in a 35-52 loss.

Plays against again team (Middle Tennessee) - a poor team outscored by 7 or more points per game, after scoring 31 or more points in two straight games are 37-10 (78.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet Rice Saturday.

20* Iowa State/Oklahoma State Big 12 No-Brainer on Iowa State +3.5

The Iowa State Cyclones have bounced back nicely from their fluky loss to Louisiana in the opener.  They have gone 3-0 in Big 12 play and faced the gauntlet.  They took care of TCU on the road, upset Oklahoma 37-30 as a 7.5-point home dog and crushed Texas Tech 31-15 as a 9.5-point home favorite in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  They had 516 yards of total offense and one of Texas Tech’s two touchdowns came on a blocked FG return TD.

Oklahoma State couldn’t have played a much softer schedule to this point.  They were actually outgained by Tulsa in their 16-7 win in their opener.  Their 27-13 win over WVU was much closer than the final score would indicate as they were outgained by 11 yards by the Mountaineers.  And their blowout win over Kansas is nothing to be proud of because everyone is crushing Kansas this season.

Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series in recent meetings.  The road team is 4-1 SU & in the last five meetings.  Iowa State won 48-42 as 10-point dogs two years ago at Oklahoma State.  And I fully expect the Cyclones to pull the ‘upset’ here.  It won’t be an upset to me because the Cyclones are the best team in the Big 12 in my opinion.

Iowa State is 20-7-1 ATS in its last 28 games as an underdog.  Matt Campbell is 21-8 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Iowa State.  Campbell is 15-2 ATS in October games as the coach of the Cyclones.  Iowa State is 7-0 ATS after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games over the last three seasons.  The Cyclones only give up 97 rushing yards and 2.9 per carry this season, so they have what it takes to shut down Chuba Hubbard and Oklahoma State’s rushing attack.  Roll with Iowa State Saturday.

20* Tulsa/USF ESPN No-Brainer on Tulsa -10

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane have held their own against two of the best teams in the country in Oklahoma State and UCF.  They were 23.5-point dogs to Oklahoma State and only lost 7-16 while actually outgaining the Cowboys.  Then they upset UCF 34-26 as 20.5-point dogs and were only outgained by 17 yards.

Now Tulsa is ready to go after having three weeks off in between games.  That should have them focused to face a South Florida team that has been a punching bag thus far.  USF is 1-4 with its only win over FCS The Citadel in its opener.  The Bulls have since gone 0-4 in their last four games while while getting outscored by an average of 23.8 points per game.  They even lost by 20 at home to a bad East Carolina team.  It will be more of the same here against Tulsa.

The Bulls are 1-8 ATS in their last nine conference home games.  The Golden Hurricane are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.  South Florida is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.  Bet Tulsa Friday.

15* Arkansas State/Appalachian State ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas State +13.5

I’ve seen enough from Arkansas State to know they can hang with Appalachian State this season.  They are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS so they have exceeded expectations thus far.  And I think the oddsmakers are off on them again here as 13.5-point underdogs to the Mountaineers.

The Red Wolves only lost by 13 to Memphis on the road as 18.5-point dogs in the opener.  They upset Kansas State 35-31 as 15-point road dogs the next week, and Kansas State is unbeaten in the Big 12 now.  Memphis just upset UCF last week.  So those two performances have aged well.  They also beat Central Arkansas by 23 as 14.5-point favorites and topped a good Georgia State team 59-52 as 3.5-point favorites.

I think you can throw out their performance against Coastal Carolina.  They were dealing with Covid and Coastal Carolina played keep away the whole game.  They controlled the ball for over 41 minutes in that contest to just 18 and change for the Red Wolves.  And keep in mind Coastal Carolina is now ranked No. 25 in the country, unbeaten and coming off a win against Louisiana-Lafayette.

Appalachian State is on its third head coach in three years.  At some point, this turnover is going to hurt the program, and it will be sooner rather than later.  It appears to be showing this season as the Mountaineers are 2-1 SU but 0-3 ATS.  They only won by 15 as 17-point home favorites over a bad Charlotte team.  They failed to cover as a 35.5-point favorite against Campbell, which has gotten rolled by everyone.  And they lost 7-17 to Marshall as a 6.5-point favorite in their toughest game thus far.  This isn’t the same dominant App State team we’ve seen from the past two years, but they are being priced like they are that same team in 2020.

Plays on road underdogs (Arkansas State) - after covering the spread in four of their last five games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 32-9 (78%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Red Wolves are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as underdogs.  Take Arkansas State Thursday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston College +12.5

Virginia Tech’s injury report is a mess.  They were missing double-digit players due to Covid-19 last week against North Carolina.  They trailed 42-17 early in the 3rd quarter before the Tar Heels let their foot off the gas and resulted in a 56-45 UNC victory.

That high-scoring game had to take a lot out of Virginia Tech.  Their soft as butter defense was gashed for 656 total yards by UNC.  They will still be feeling the after-affects of that game heading into this showdown with Boston College even if they get a few players back from Covid-19 absences.  Either way, they should not be double-digit favorites over Boston College.

The Eagles are off to a 3-1 start this season that includes an impressive upset win at Duke 26-6 and an upset win over Pittsburgh at home.  Their only loss came to one of the best teams in the country in North Carolina by a final of 22-26.  They were only outgained by 48 yards by the Tar Heels.

That gives these teams two common opponents, and going off that Boston College has fared better against Duke and UNC than Virginia Tech has.  They outscored UNC and Duke by a combined 16 points, while Virginia Tech was outscored by a a combined 4 points against those two teams.  They only beat Duke 38-31.  If anything, Boston College has been the better team to this point and should not be a double-digit dog.

The Eagles are 20-5-1 ATS int emir last 26 conference games.  Virginia Tech is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games as a favorite.  Boston College is 53-33 ATS in its last 86 games as a road underdog, including 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games as a road dog.  The Eagles are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings, including outright wins each of the last two seasons.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Mississippi State +5.5

It’s definitely a good time to ‘buy low’ on Mississippi State this week.  I had Kentucky against them last week and didn’t really have to sweat it because Mississippi State just kept making mistake after mistake with six turnovers in their 24-2 loss to the Wildcats.  That came a week after committing four turnovers in an upset loss to Arkansas after upsetting LSU to open the season.

That makes 14 turnovers for Mississippi State through three games, which is the most int he country.  Mike Leach will be preaching ball security this week, and they won’t be committing four-plus turnovers again to give the game away.

This is a tough spot for Texas A&M after playing two of the best teams in the country in Alabama and Florida the last two weeks.  I don’t believe they’ll have much left in the tank for Mississippi State this week, and they certainly won’t be as excited to play the Bulldogs as they were Alabama and Florida.

The Bulldogs have too good of stats to be a 1-2 team to this point, which is why it’s a ‘buy low’ opportunity.  They are outgaining their opponents by 157 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play thus far.  Their defense has been dynamite in holding three SEC opponents to just 286 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play.

Texas A&M is 2-1 despite getting outgained by 0.1 yards per play thus far.  They are giving up 6.7 yards per play defensively, which is 2.5 yards per play more than Mississippi State is allowing.  And QB KJ Costello should have a big game against a Texas A&M defense that is giving up 71.6% completions, 299 passing yards per game and 10.2 yards per attempt.  The Bulldogs average 404 passing yards per game in Leach’s Air Raid attack.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Mississippi State) - with a turnover margin of -2 per game or worse on the season, after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS since 1992.  This trend just goes to show that it’s a good move to back teams with poor turnover differentials over multiple games in a row.  Bet Mississippi State Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Duke +4.5

The Duke Blue Devils are one of the best one-win teams in the country.  They are much better than their 1-4 record would indicate.  The problem for them has been turnovers as they have committed a whopping 19 turnovers already and have a -11 differential on the season.  These are the teams that I like to back because there’s some positive regression coming for the Blue Devils.

David Cutcliffe usually coaches a very smart Duke team year after year that exceeds expectations because of playing the game the right way.  But that hasn’t happened thus far, though they’ve shown signs of getting things turned around.  They covered their last two games, only losing 31-38 to Virginia Tech as 11.5-point dogs.

Then last week they dominated Syracuse worse than the 38-24 score would even indicate. They lost the turnover battle 4-0 in that game yet still won by 14.  They outgained Syracuse 645 to 286 in that game, or by 359 total yards.  It was worse than anyone had beaten Syracuse yet this season.

While Duke will play hard knowing it has a bye next week to rest, NC State is in a sandwich spot here.  The Wolf Pack are coming off three straight road games against Virginia Tech, Pitt and Virginia pulling upsets against the latter two.  And now they have a road trip to North Carolina next week on deck.  They will be looking ahead to that in-state rivalry and not giving the 1-4 Blue Devils the proper focus they deserve.  This has upset spot written all over it.

Unlike Duke, NC State has taken care of the football with only four turnovers in four games.  They are due for some negative turnover regression, especially after forcing four turnovers against Virginia last week that aided their upset victory.  And while NC State has a decent offense, their defense is soft as butter.  They give up 447 yards per game on the season and are getting outgained by 45 yards per game despite being 3-1.  Duke is outgaining opponents by 20.4 yards per game despite being 1-4.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Wolfpack and ‘buy low’ on the Blue Devils.

Duke is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 425 or more yards per game.  Dave Doeren is 0-6 ATS after a game where they forced four or more turnovers as the coach of the Wolfpack, having never covered in this situation in his eight seasons here and losing outright by an average of 16.9 points per game.  NC State is 13-29 ATS in its last 42 games off a conference road win.  

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NC State) - after scoring 20 points or more in the first half of two straight games against an opponent that scored 24 points or more in the first half last game are 38-11 (77.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NC State) - off two consecutive road wins, in the first half of the season are 41-15 (73.2%) ATS since 1992.  Take Duke Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Pittsburgh +13.5

The Pitt Panthers are two points away from being 5-0 this season.  Their consecutive losses to NC State (29-30) and Boston College (30-31) have them undervalued right now.  And now they are catching nearly two touchdowns against the Miami Hurricanes this week.  It’s time to ‘buy low’ on Pittsburgh.

It’s also time to ’sell high’ on Miami after their 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS start.  The Hurricanes were exposed by Clemson last week in their 17-42 loss that wasn’t even that close.  Miami was held to just 210 total yards while committing three turnovers.  They gave up 550 total yards to Clemson and were outgained by 340 yards.  

It’s going to be hard for Miami to get up for Pittsburgh a week after playing one of the best teams in the country in Clemson, so this definitely has ‘hangover’ written all over it.  I like the quotes coming out of the Pittsburgh locker room about how they’ll bounce back this week.  I think they will be the more motivated team for sure.  

It’s a loaded Pitt team still capable of winning the Coastal with 15 returning starters and an elite defense and passing attack.  The Panthers only give up 264 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play through five games this season.  They are averaging 284 passing yards per game and 7.5 per attempt on offense.

Plays against home teams (Miami) - an excellent offensive team that is scoring 35 or more points per game after a loss by 21 points or more are 67-31 (68.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Miami’s early wins against UAB, Louisville and FSU don’t look so good now.  The Panthers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss.  Roll with Pittsburgh Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on South Carolina +3.5

The South Carolina Gamecocks are 1-2 this season and it’s time to ‘buy low’ on them here.  Their two losses came against two of the best teams in the SEC in Tennessee and Florida, and they actually played well in both losses.  They only lost 27-31 to Tennessee and were only outgained by 15 yards.  And they lost 24-38 to Florida in a game that was closer than the final score as they were only outgained by 19 yards.

The Gamecocks took out their frustration on Vanderbilt last week in a 41-7 road win and dominated every bit as much as the final score showed.  They outgained the Commodores by 236 yards in the win.  And keep in mind that’s a Vanderbilt team that only lost 12-17 to Texas A&M in their opener.

Now South Carolina will ‘upset’ an Auburn team that could easily be 0-3 right now.  Auburn needed a last-second field goal to beat Arkansas 30-28 last week as a 13.5-point favorite.  They lost 6-27 to Georgia the week before and were outgained by 226 yards.  And they did not deserve to beat Kentucky in their opener in a misleading 29-13 final that saw them get outgained by 60 yards by the Wildcats.  There was a 14-point swing in that game after the refs missed a TD by Kentucky on review that changed the whole game.

Auburn is 0-6 ATS off a home conference win over the last three seasons.  South Carolina is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games off a blowout conference win by 21 points or more.    Auburn is a complete fraud as the 15th-ranked team in the country currently and will get exposed by the Gamecocks this weekend.  Take South Carolina Saturday.

20* BYU/Houston Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston +5.5

I was very impressed with Houston in their season opener against Tulane last week.  They were sloppy early, which I expected, but the way they came back and won with ease from a 24-7 deficit shows they are the real deal this season.  They outscored the Green Wave 42-7 the rest the way after they finally quit turning the ball over.

The Cougars lost the turnover battle 5-0 yet still won by 18 points.  They outgained the Green Wave by 265 total yards and held them to just 211 total yards.  This is one of the most experienced teams in the country as Houston brought back 19 starters in Year 2 under Dana Holgorsen.  It’s clear to me after just one game that this is going to be a contender in the AAC.

BYU is getting a lot of credit for beating up on a soft schedule thus far, going 4-0 against the likes of Navy, Troy, LA Tech and UTSA.  This is by far BYU’s stiffest test yet.  And the Cougars struggled with UTSA as a 34-point favorite last week.  They only beat UTSA 27-20 in that game.

Now BYU is working on a short week with five days to prepare for Houston.  Meanwhile, the Cougars have seven days to prepare for BYU after playing last Thursday, which is a nice advantage.  And BYU has cluster injuries along the offensive line.  Three starters in G Tristen Hoge, C James Empey and G Kieffer Longson are all questionable.  And backup guard Keanu Salaepaga is doubtful.  Offensive line injuries always get overlooked in the point spread in college football, and that is the case in this game.

Kalani Sitake is 0-6 ATS after gaining 475 or more total yards per game in the last three games as the coach of BYU.  This is a system that has never lost in the five years that Sitake has been at the helm.  After beating up on a soft schedule thus far, BYU meets its match this week.  Bet Houston Friday.

20* Georgia State/Arkansas State ESPN No-Brainer on Georgia State +3.5

Georgia State is a team on the rise in the Sun Belt.  The Panthers went 7-6 last year and made their third bowl game in five seasons.  Shawn Elliott is doing a heck of a job with the program as he enters his fourth season with his best team yet.  I say that because Georgia State returns its most starters (16) of his tenure and he has all of his players in place now.

The offense welcomes back eight starters.  They have four starters back on the offensive line and each of their top three receivers return.  They do have to replace their QB and RB, but I like junior RB Destin Coates, who averaged 6.7 yards per carry last year with 546 yards and seven touchdowns and was their most explosive back.  The defense has eight starters and 10 of the top 12 tacklers back, so this should be Elliott’s best stop unit yet.  

I really like what I’ve seen from Georgia State thus far.  They are 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS through two games.  They took Louisiana to overtime, a team that was expected to challenge for the top Group of 5 spot and one that upset Iowa State in Week 1.  They lost 31-34 as 17-point dogs.  Then they bounced back with an impressive 49-29 win over East Carolina as 1.5-point dogs.

Freshman QB Cornelius Brown is a problem with his dual-threat ability.  He has thrown for 434 yards and four touchdowns while also rushing for 90 yards and a score.  Coates has proven he can be the featured back this year with 263 yards and three scores on 57 carries.  There is a lot to like about this offense.

Arkansas State played well against Memphis and Kansas State to open the season before Covid-19 hit the team.  Then they lost 23-52 at Coastal Carolina as 3.5-point favorites before coming back last week to beat FCS Central Arkansas 50-27.

Georgia State has a huge scheduling advantage in this spot.  The Panthers have had two weeks to prepare for Arkansas State.  The Red Wolves just played on Saturday, so they have just four days to get ready for Georgia State.  And keep in mind Georgia State upset Arkansas State 52-38 last year as 6.5-point home dogs, gaining 722 total yards and 39 first downs on the Red Wolves in a dominant win.  I really think the wrong team is favored here.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Georgia State) - off a home win, with 16 starters returning are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Georgia State Thursday.