Winning Sports Picks

15* Ohio/Miami (Ohio) MAC Tuesday No-Brainer on Ohio -3

The Ohio Bobcats (5-6) need one more win to get bowl eligible, so they have every reason to be motivated coming into this game. At 2-9 on the season, Miami Ohio has nothing to play for but pride. I like the motivational angle favoring the Bobcats as well as the way they have been playing of late, which has been very impressive.

Ohio has played two of its best games of the season in its last two contests. The first was a 37-14 home win over Buffalo in which it outgained the Bulls by 255 yards and dominated in every phase of the game. The second came in a losing effort to Northern Illinois (14-21) last week. It actually outgained the Huskies by 19 yards for the game. The Huskies are the favorites to win the MAC right now with just one conference loss all season, so that effort was impressive by the Bobcats.

While I will admit that the Redhawks are better than their 2-9 record would indicate, I still believe they should be a bigger underdog in this contest. They have had some close losses this season, but the fact is that they continue to lose. They only have two wins all year, and those two came against MAC bottom feeders UMass (42-41) and Kent State (10-3) by a combined eight points. Both of those games were played at home, too.

Miami Ohio has had some poor performances on its home turf as well. It lost at home to FCS foe Eastern Kentucky 10-17, while also falling to Western Michigan 10-41 in its last home game. It was outgained by the Broncos by 263 yards in that contest. That was the fourth time this season that the Redhawks have been outgained by 144 or more yards in a game. They are getting outscoring by 10.0 points per game on the season and outgained by 58.5 yards per game.

Ohio has really gotten its running game going here of late. It rushed for 233 yards on Buffalo and 203 yards on Northern Illinois in its last two games. It should be able to move the football at will on the ground against a Miami Ohio defense that has been soft as butter against the run.

The Redhawks are giving up 202 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry this season against teams that average 161 rushing yards and 4.4 per carry.  They gave up 273 rushing yards to Buffalo, 433 to Northern Illinois, 282 to Western Michigan and 209 to Central Michigan.  As you can see, these numbers are staggering and suggest that they can do little to stop the run.

The Bobcats are 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Redhawks. They won 41-16 at home last year while outgaining Miami Ohio 535-240 for the game, or by 295 total yards. Miami Ohio is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Redhawks are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games. The Redhawks are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  Roll with Ohio Tuesday.

15* USC/UCLA ABC Saturday No-Brainer on USC +4

In a game that I fully expect to go right down to the wire, I’ll be taking the USC Trojans as 4-point underdogs over the Bruins. This game could easily be decided by a field goal either way, so I believe there is some value in taking the dog here. The Trojans want revenge from their last two losses to the Bruins. After all, they had won 12 of 13 meetings prior to those two losses.

USC (7-3) has yet to be blown out this season and really could be 10-0 right now. Its three losses have come to Utah (21-24), Arizona State (34-38) and Boston College (31-37) by a combined 13 points. It has gone on the road and beaten Arizona (28-26) and Stanford (13-10), so it has proven it can play well away from home against some of the top competition in the Pac-12.

UCLA may be the most overrated team in the country as it is nowhere near as good as its 8-2 record would indicate. Five of its eight wins have come by eight points or less. Both of its losses have actually come at home this season to the likes of Utah and Oregon. This is a team that is getting a little more respect than it deserves due to its four-game winning streak coming in, two of which came against Colorado and California by a combined five points.

The Trojans are the better defensive team in this one. They are only giving up 23.3 points and 399.2 yards per game this season against opponents that average 31.3 points and 440 yards per game. The Bruins are allowing 27.9 points and 410.0 yards per game against opponents that are averaging 33.4 points and 436 yards per game. 

USC may have as much NFL talent on both sides of the ball combined as any team in the country.  They tend to dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides as they have a plus-two sack differential on the year.  UCLA, meanwhile, is minus-11 in sack differential on offense and defense.  I look for the Trojans winning the line of scrimmage to be the key in their upset bid this weekend.

Cody Kessler is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country and doesn’t get enough credit for the job he does with this USC offense, which is putting up 35.2 points per game on the season. Kessler is completing 70.2 percent of his passes for 2,919 yards and a sensational 29-to-3 touchdown to interception ratio. Javorius Allen is a beast, rushing for 1,184 yards and eight touchdowns. Nelson Agholor has 82 receptions for 1,079 yards and 10 scores on the season.

UCLA is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games following two consecutive covers as a favorite. The Trojans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. The Bruins are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. UCLA is 3-7 ATS in all games this season.  The top six teams in the Pac-12, including USC, have a combined conference road record of 19-4.  Bet USC Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tennessee -3.5

The Tennessee Volunteers (5-5) were one of the youngest teams in college football coming into the season.  They were also one of the most talented with the recruits that Butch Jones has been stockpiling over the last two years.  Well, that talent is growing up in a hurry, and the Volunteers are arguably the most improved team in the country from the first half to the second half.

They have played one of the toughest schedules in the land as they have had to play four current top-15 teams with three of those on the road.  Yet, they are still outscoring the opposition by an average of 5 points per game.  They have now won their last two games impressively with a 45-42 (OT) win at South Carolina and a 50-16 beat down at home against Kentucky.

The biggest reason for the turnaround by Tennessee has been the insertion of Josh Dobbs at quarterback.  He is completing 62% of his passes with a 7-to-2 touchdown to interception ratio while averaging 8.0 yards per attempt.  He has also rushed for 259 yards and four touchdowns, so he's much more of a dual-threat than Justin Worley was.  He led this Tennessee offense to 20 points against Alabama, 45 against South Carolina and 50 against Kentucky in his three starts.

The Vols now have an offense that can complement their defense, which is sensational.  The Vols rank 39th in the country in total defense, giving up 24.1 points and 363.7 yards per game.  They are 4-2 at home this season and giving up just 16.0 points and 389.8 yards per game at home.  That includes a minuscule 4.4 yards per play at home.

Missouri has played a much, much weaker schedule than Tennessee up to this point.  I would argue that the Tigers are the single-most overrated team in the entire country, or at least right up there in the top five due to their laughable 8-2 record.  They hold that record despite only outgaining teams by an average of 14.7 yards per game on the season.

I just do not trust this Missouri offense to do anything against this Tennessee defense.  The Tigers rank 107th in the country in total offense at 355.8 yards per game.  Maty Mauk just isn't a very good quarterback.  He is completing a woeful 53.1 percent of his passes while averaging just 6.1 yards per attempt on the season.

Common opponents are a great way to compare teams.  Both Missouri and Tennessee have faced the same four opponents in Florida, Georgia, Kentucky and South Carolina.  Tennessee is outgaining those opponents by 58 yards per game, while Missouri is getting outgained by those same opponents by 92 yards per game.  Keep in mind that Dobbs did not play in either the Florida or the Georgia game, too.

Plays on home favorites (TENNESSEE) - after gaining 575 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games, with 5 defensive starters returning are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Vols put up 645 yards on South Carolina and 511 yards on Kentucky with Dobbs at the helm.  He comes through with another strong performance this weekend in a blowout win over the Tigers.  Roll with Tennessee Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia +6

The Miami Hurricanes are in a massive hangover spot here form their 26-30 loss to Florida State last weekend.  That loss eliminated them from Coastal Division Title contention, and now they will fall flat on their faces this week against the Virginia Cavaliers.

Virginia is fresh off a bye and needs to win its final two games to get bowl eligible.  So, not only will the Hurricanes come out flat in this game, they'll also be running into a fresh Cavaliers team that is hungry to play in the postseason.  That's not a good combination for Miami backers this week.  Plus, the Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a bye week.

The Cavaliers have shown me enough to know that they are better than their 4-6 record would indicate, especially at home.  Earlier this year they nearly upset a top-10 UCLA team, but lost 20-28 due to the Bruins getting three defensive touchdowns.  They did upset top-25 Louisville 23-21.

Virginia has won three of its past four meetings with Miami, and there have been six upsets in the past 10 years in the series.  Last year when these two played, Virginia had a 28-11 first-down edge on the road, and this year's version of the Cavaliers is much better.  They did lose that game 26-45 last year, but it was a complete fluke as they outgained the Hurricanes 483-304 for the game.

Miami has not been nearly as good on the road as it has been at home.  It is just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS with all three of its losses coming by double-digits to Georgia Tech (17-28), Nebraska (31-41) and Louisville (13-31).  It has no business laying points on the road to Virginia with those kinds of results.

I love this matchup for Virginia because its strength is stopping the run while Miami's strength is running the football.  The Hurricanes are averaging 197 rushing yards per game and 5.5 per carry behind Duke Johnson.  Virginia is only giving up 119 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry against opposing offenses that average 174 yards per game and 4.5 per carry.

Plays against road favorites (MIAMI) - excellent offensive team (440-Plus YPG) against an average offensive team (330 to 390 YPG), after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Miami is 1-9 ATS after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in four consecutive games since 1992.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Notre Dame -3

What would this line be had Notre Dame (7-3) not self-destructed in losing three of its last four games?  That's an important question I asked myself when looking into this game, and I came up with that they'd be anywhere from a 7-10 point favorite.  That's why I believe there is a ton of value in backing the Fighting Irish only laying a field against Louisville (7-3) Saturday.

Notre Dame could easily be 10-0 right now.  It had a game-winning touchdown called back in a 27-31 loss to Florida State on the road in which it outgained the Seminoles by 147 yards.  It lost at Arizona State despite outgaining the Sun Devils by 75 yards due to committing five turnovers.  It also lost at home to Northwestern last week 40-43 in a game it led 40-29 with only four minutes remaining.

The fact of the matter is that Notre Dame is still one of the most talented teams in the country.  I also trust Brian Kelly to get his team refocused as he is one of the best motivators in all of college football.  This is also Senior Day for the Fighting Irish.  That combination of talent and motivation to right the ship and win one for the seniors will have the Fighting Irish putting forth one of their best performances of the season Saturday.

This Notre Dame offense has been dynamite outside of the turnovers, which are correctable.  It is putting up 35.4 points and 465.4 yards per game against teams that only allow 26.1 points and 383 yards per game.  Everett Golson is the real deal, completing 61% of his passes for 3,044 yards with 27 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, while also rushing for 342 yards and a team-high eight scores.

I don't think Louisville would stand much of a chance even if starting quarterback Will Gardner was healthy, but now that he is out for the season with a knee injury it has no shot to win this game.  Gardner averaged 7.6 yards per attempt with 12 touchdowns and three interceptions. 

The backup is freshman Reggie Bonnafon, who will make his fourth start of the year but has not impressed me at all.  He is completing just 55.4 percent of his passes, averaging 7.2 yards per attempt, and has four touchdowns against one pick.  He did most of his damage against Syracuse, Wake Forest and Boston College.  This Notre Dame defense that is giving up a respectable 382.6 yards per game and 5.3 per play is a different animal.

Notre Dame is a perfect 7-0 ATS when playing against a good team with a winning percentage from 60% to 75% over the last three seasons.  The Fighting Irish are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  Brian Kelly is 16-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 in all games he has coached.  Roll with Notre Dame Saturday.

15* Ole Miss/Arkansas SEC ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas +3.5

The Arkansas Razorbacks (5-5) are the best team in the country that currently has a .500 record or worse. They have proven capable of playing with anyone and can beat any team on their best day. They are much better than their 5-5 record would indicate, and that has been shown all season as they have taken some of the best teams in the country down to the wire.

The losses to Alabama (13-14) and Mississippi State (10-17) by a combined eight points have proven that they can play with anyone. Alabama is currently the No. 1 team in the playoff rankings while Mississippi State is No. 4. Finally, the Razorbacks put an end to their 17-game SEC losing streak with a dominant 17-0 home victory over LSU last week.

The Razorbacks held the Tigers to just 123 yards of total offense in the win. Sure, this could be a letdown spot for them off such a big victory, but I’m not buying it. That’s because they still need one more win to become bowl eligible, so they will have no problem coming back this week motivated. They don’t want to leave it up to next week, where they’d have to go into Missouri and win to get bowl eligible if they lose to Ole Miss here.

Sure, Ole Miss (8-2) is coming off a bye week, but this team isn’t the same squad that opened 7-0 and was ranked No. 1 in the country. It has lost two of three since with its only victory coming against Presbyterian. It lost 7-10 at LSU and 31-35 at home against Auburn to crush its playoff chances. Now, the Rebels can’t win the SEC, and their two losses will keep them out of the playoffs. They are kind of stuck in la-la land here with not much to play for. They could also be looking ahead to their huge Egg Bowl showdown with Mississippi State next week.

Ole Miss has lost arguably its two best players on both sides of the football. On defense, linebacker Denzel Nkemdiche is out for the season with an ankle injury. Offensively, top receiver Laquon Treadwell was lost for the season with a gruesome ankle injury at the end of the Auburn game. Treadwell has a team-high 48 receptions for 632 yards and five touchdowns this year and will be impossible to replace.  Without question, he was their biggest playmaker.

Arkansas boasts one of the best defenses in the country. It is allowing just 22.2 points and 340.6 yards per game this season. What makes that so impressive is that opposing offenses average 31.4 points and 435 yards per game, so they are holding them to 9.2 points and 94 yards per game below their season averages.

The Razorbacks have held Alabama, Mississippi State and LSU to 31 combined points, or an average of 10.3 points per game.  They held Alabama and LSU to a combined 14 points and 350 combined total yards in their two home games.  That’s all you need to know about how good this defense has been and is capable of being.

Arkansas is 6-0 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 8.0 yards per attempt or more this season. The Razorbacks are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. Arkansas is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games overall. The Razorbacks are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Rebels are 1-5 ATS in their last six visits to Arkansas.  Take Arkansas Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Boston College +17

The Florida State Seminoles are in a massive letdown spot Saturday against the Boston College Eagles.  They are coming off another miracle win at Miami where they had to come back from 23-7 down to win 30-26.  That was their biggest game of the season, and it's only human nature for them to suffer a letdown when they return home this week.

Florida State has been one of the most overrated teams in the country all year.  It is 10-0, but just 3-7 ATS on the season.  Time and time again it is laying too big of spreads that it cannot cover.  Even in the three games they covered, they barely got there.  They covered the spread by a combined 9.5 points in their three covers.

Florida State has only beaten two teams all season by more than 18 points.  Those came against FCS foe The Citadel in a 25-point win as a 56.5-point favorite against against ACC bottom feeder Wake Forest in a 40-point win as a 37-point favorite.

The Seminoles only won by 6 as an 18.5-point favorite against Oklahoma State, by 6 as a 10-point favorite against Clemson, by 15 as a 16.5-point favorite against NC State, by 18 as a 23.5-point favorite against Syracuse, by 4 as a 9-point favorite against Notre Dame, and by 14 as a 21-point favorite against Virginia in a bevy of games that they did not cover.

Boston College is a sneaky team that has been better than it gets credit for this season.  It is 6-4 on the year with its only losses coming to Pitt, Colorado State, Clemson and Louisville with three of those coming by 10 or fewer points.  It even has a win against USC, which is one of the better teams in the country.

What I like most about this Boston College team is how well it has played on the road this season.  It is a perfect 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS away from home in 2014, outscoring opponents by a whopping 11.8 points per game.  The Eagles play tremendous defense as they rank 16th in the country in total defense at 323.5 yards per game.  They give up just 17.2 points and 273.5 yards per game on the road.

Boston College played Florida State tougher than anyone last year outside of Auburn in the National Championship Game.  It only lost 34-48 at home to the Seminoles as a 23.5-point underdog.  The Seminoles even got a Hail Mary touchdown pass at the end of the first half to take a 24-17 lead into the break in that game.  The Eagles rushed for 200 yards in the loss, and their ground game should once again be able to control the ball and keep the FSU offense off the field for the majority of this game.

Plays against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (FLORIDA ST) - after eight or more consecutive straight up wins, a top-level team (winning at least 80% of their games) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS since 1992. Boston College is 37-20 ATS in its last 57 vs. a team with a winning percentage of 75% or better.  The Eagles are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 following an ATS loss.  The Seminoles are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

20* Conference USA GAME OF THE WEEK on UAB +20

The Marshall Thundering Herd are 10-0 right now and certainly want to finish the season unbeaten.  However, with that 10-0 record comes lofty expectations from the oddsmakers that they simply cannot live up to right now.  I believe that is certainly the case this week against a UAB team that will give them a run for their money.

This marks the ninth time this year that the Thundering Herd will be laying at least 20 points.  They have managed to go a sensational 7-2-1 ATS, covering the spread time and time again.  The betting public has been pounding them and continues to do so this week because of it.  That has driven this line way higher than it should be, and there's a ton of value in backing the dog this week.

UAB (5-5) is the single-toughest team that Marshall has played this season.  This is the same Blazers team that put up 34 points and 548 yards on Mississippi State early in the season.  As you know, Mississippi State is currently the No. 4 team in the playoff rankings with its only loss coming by five points at No. 1 Alabama.

The Blazers will come into this game highly motivated to get bowl eligible.  They will also be coming in fresh as they had a bye last week following their 24-40 loss to Louisiana Tech on November 8th.  I believe that loss to the Bulldogs has them undervalued.  LA Tech is one of the most underrated teams in the country.

First-year head coach Bill Clark is one of the most underrated coaches in the land and will eventually land a bigger job elsewhere.  His offense has been explosive this season, putting up 33.5 points and 428.8 yards per game.  The defense has been respectable as well, giving up just 399.5 yards per game.  This team is capable of scoring with Marshall, as evidenced by the 34 points they put up on Mississippi State.

This is the definition of a letdown spot for Marshall as well.  It is coming off its most anticipated game of the season, a win over Rice that was only only a revenge rematch of last year's C-USA Title Game, but also a day when the university had its annual remembrance of the 1970 plane crash.  It also dedicated its new hall of fame.

Not only is UAB coming off an open date, it also will have the support of an active home crowd with the campus rallying in protest over reports that the university may disband the football program.  So, from a motivational standpoint, the Blazers will be the more intense team on Saturday.

Marshall is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 125 or fewer passing yards in two straight games.  The Blazers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  UAB is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games following a double-digit home loss.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take UAB Saturday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE WEEK on Air Force +6

The Air Force Falcons (8-2) have been the surprise of the Mountain West Conference this season. They have won eight games and are right in the thick of the Mountain Division title race. I expect them to continue their solid play in Week 13 as they visit the San Diego Aztecs (5-5), who aren’t nearly as strong as they have been in year’s past.

Air Force has beaten the likes of Boise State, Navy and Nevada this season, so its 8-2 record is no fluke. Its only losses have come on the road at Wyoming and at Utah State, which are two solid football teams. Only once all season has this team lost by more than four points, which came in a 16-34 setback at Utah State on October 11th in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate. The Falcons were only outgained by nine yards in that contest.

Air Force boasts an explosive offense this season that is putting up 33.0 points and 437.6 yards per game. Once again, the ground game has been its bread and butter, averaging 288 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry. However, the difference this season has been the threat of a passing game.

The Falcons are completing 61.0% of their passes and averaging 9.7 yards per attempt. They continually get big plays in the the passing game because opponents sell out to stop the run.  Kale Pearson has taken advantage, throwing for 1,342 yards and 13 touchdowns against two interceptions, which are impressive numbers for a quarterback in the triple-option.

The Falcons are also improved on the other side of the ball, allowing just 23.6 points and 379.9 yards per game. They should be able to hold an SDSU offense in check that has been terrible all year. The Aztecs are only averaging 24.1 points and 387.2 yards per game against opposing defenses that are allowing 33.6 points and 452 yards per game. They are being held to 9.5 points and 65 yards per game below their opponents’ season averages on the season.

San Diego State has not beaten anybody of any relevance. Its five wins have come against the likes of Idaho, Hawaii, New Mexico, UNLV and Northern Arizona. This could be a big hangover spot for the Aztecs, who fought tough last week but lost 29-38 at Boise State. It’s going to be hard for them to get back up off the mat after a loss to arguably the best team in the Mountain West.

Also, this short week is going to be hard on the Aztecs.  The triple-option is very difficult to prepare for, and that is amplified when a team doesn't have a full week or more to prepare.  The Falcons should be able to have plenty of success on offense against this unprepared SDSU defense.  I look for the Aztecs to miss a lot of assignments, and defenses have no chance against the triple-option when they aren't assignment-sound.

Common opponents are a great way to compare teams. Both Air Force and San Diego State have faced the same four teams. Air Force is 4-0 against those teams, outscoring them by an average of 13.0 points per game. San Diego State is just 2-2 against those teams, outscoring them by just 0.5 points per game.  By those numbers alone, it shows that Air Force is essentially 12.5 points better than San Diego State.

This is a huge revenge game for the Falcons as well.  They have lost each of their last four meetings with the Aztecs, including a tough 20-27 home loss last year when they simply weren't that good.  They also lost 9-28 in 2012 despite outgaining the Aztecs 393-268, 27-41 in 2012 while outgaining them 419-410, and 25-27 in 2010 while outgaining them 487-456.  Not only do I expect the Falcons to dominate the box score stats again, I also expect them to come away with the victory this time around, but I'll take the points for some added insurance.

Plays on a road team (AIR FORCE) – after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, with a winning record on the season are 142-86 (62.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Falcons are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 games after covering the spread in four or five of their last six games coming in. The Aztecs are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. San Diego State is 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  Bet Air Force Friday.

25* Sun Belt GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas State +5

The Texas State Bobcats (5-5) are playing their best football of the season here of late. They have gone a perfect 4-0 against the spread in their last four games overall. This streak started with road wins at Louisiana Monroe (22-18) as a 2.5-point underdog and at New Mexico State (37-29) as a 7-point favorite. However, I have actually been more impressed with the Bobcats’ last two games, which were both losses.

They only lost 25-28 at home to Georgia Southern as a 12-point underdog on November 8th. They actually outgained the Panthers by 171 yards in the game and should have won. That's the same Georgia Southern team that is 7-0 in the Sun Belt with its only losses coming to NC State (by 1), Georgia Tech (by 3) & Navy.  The Bobcats' 20-24 road loss to South Alabama as 6-point dogs last week saw them outgain the Jaguars by 22 total yards for the game.

Texas State will be highly motivated for a win Thursday night. At 5-5 on the season, they need one more win to become bowl eligible.  This will be Senior Night for the Bobcats as well, and they have several senior starters leading the way this season.  Arkansas State, meanwhile, may have a hard time being motivated for this one.

Arkansas State won at least a share of the Sun Belt Title each of the last three years, but it is guaranteed not to win it this year as it is 4-2 within the conference while Georgia Southern is 7-0.  The Red Wolves have already clinched bowl eligibility, so they really don't have much to play for the rest of the way.

While the Bobcats are playing well coming in, the Arkansas State Red Wolves (6-4) are coming off their worst performance of the season. They lost at home to Appalachian State 32-37 last week despite being 15-point favorites. This game was nowhere near as close as the final score would indicate, either. The Red Wolves were actually outgained by the Mountaineers 314-549 for the game, or by 235 total yards. Appalachian State led this game 37-20 before Arkansas State scored 12 points over the final 2:17 of the game in garbage time.

Texas State’s strength offensively is a rushing attack that is average 215 yards per game and 4.9 per carry. It does have a lot of balance through, averaging 225 yards per game through the air on 64.0 percent completions as well. The weakness of the Arkansas State defense is against the run as it is allowing 175 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry. That makes this a great matchup for the Texas State offense.

Arkansas State is 7-23 ATS in its last 30 versus good rushing teams that average 4.75 or more yards per carry. The Bobcats are 7-0 ATS after playing three straight conference games over the past three seasons. Texas State is 4-0 ATS in its last four conference games. The Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  These last three trends combine for a perfect 15-0 system backing the Bobcats.  Bet Texas State Thursday.

15* UNC/Duke ACC ANNIHILATOR on North Carolina +6

This marks the second straight year that the North Carolina Tar Heels (5-5) have finished strong at the end of the season. They won six of their final seven games last year, and they have won three of their past four heading into this game with the Duke Blue Devils (8-2). They still need one more win to become bowl eligible, and after fighting back to get to this point, they aren’t about to give in now.

The Tar Heels have beaten Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh at home, while also topping Virginia on the road for their three wins in their last four games. Their only loss during this stretch came at Miami, which nearly upset Florida State at home last week. In fact, their solid play stretches back to a 43-50 road loss at Notre Dame as 16.5-point underdogs five games ago. They have covered four of their last five against the spread.

UNC boasts an explosive offense that gives it a chance to win every game it is in. It is putting up 35.9 points and 430.0 yards per game this season. Marquise Williams is one of the better quarterbacks in the country. The junior is completing 63.2 percent of his passes for 2,502 yards with 18 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Williams also leads the team in rushing with 623 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground.

North Carolina has won 21 of its last 24 meetings with Duke. Sure, it has lost the last two, but those two losses came by a combined five points. The Blue Devils won 33-30 at home in 2012 and 27-25 on the road in 2013. I fully expect this game to go right down to the wire as well, meaning there is a ton of value in backing the road underdog Tar Heels catching six points, though I expect them to win this game outright.

Duke is one of the most overrated teams in the country this year, just as it was last season. It has been living off of close wins over the past two seasons. In fact, it has won a combined seven games by a touchdown or less over the last two years. It is only outgaining teams 396.1 to 389.7 on the season in 2014, which isn’t what you would expect from an 8-2 team. It is overvalued because of its 8-2 record, though.

UNC is 9-2 ATS in the second half of the season over the past two seasons. David Cutcliffe is 1-10 ATS in home games versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.9 or more yards per play in all games he has coached. The Tar Heels are 5-1 ATS in their last six Thursday games. UNC is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS win.  Take North Carolina Thursday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on UMass +7

The UMass Minutemen are one of the most underrated teams in all of college football.  They are much better than their 3-7 record would indicate, and they have proven that of late by winning three of their last four games overall.  They come into this game against Akron with a ton of confidence as a result.

UMass should be 5-5 at worst had it gotten some better fortune in close games this year.  Indeed, five of its seven losses have come by a touchdown or less.  That includes home losses to Bowling Green (42-47) and Colorado (38-41), as well as road losses to Vanderbilt (31-34), Miami Ohio (41-42) and Toledo (35-42).

Just the fact that UMass has been able to go toe-for-toe with the likes of Bowling Green, Colorado, Vanderbilt and Toledo shows what it is capable of.  Its solid play this year has finally paid off with some results.  It has won three of its last four in blowout fashion over Kent State (40-17), Eastern Michigan (36-14) and Ball State (24-10) with its only loss coming by a touchdown at Toledo during this stretch.

The Minutemen are actually outgaining opponents on the season despite their 3-7 record, which is clearly the sign of a good team.  They have done so behind a high-powered offense that is averaging 30.1 points and 448.7 yards per game.  They have put up 480 or more total yards in six straight games, including 554-plus in four of those.

Blake Frohnapfel is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country as well.  He is completing 55.3 percent of his passes for 3,345 yards with 23 touchdowns and 10 interceptions on the year.  Tajae Sharpe is probably the best receiver in the MAC, catching 76 balls for 1,204 yards and five touchdowns to this point.

I realize that Frohnapfel (bone bruise) is questionable to play Tuesday, and this would be an even stronger play if he was for sure starting, but I still like UMass to cover the touchdown even if he doesn't go.  The backup is former Penn State transfer Austin Whipple, who is also the coach's son and a heck of a talent.

Akron is in a downward spiral, and I don't see it turning things around tonight.  It is 0-4 in its last four games overall to completely play itself out of the MAC Title race and likely out of a bowl bid.  After losing 10-27 to Bowling Green at home two weeks ago, the Zips went on the road and were pummeled by a terrible Buffalo team 24-55 last week.

The Zips have failed to cover the spread in six consecutive games coming in, going 0-6 ATS.  Yet, week after week, they continue to get too much respect from the books.  They only managed 229 total yards against an awful Buffalo defense last week, while they gave up 536 total yards to the Bulls in an absolute laugher.

UMass has played Akron extremely tough the last two years, and this 2014 UMass team is much better than the last two versions.  The Minutemen actually went on the road in 2012 and won 22-14 as 14.5-point underdogs to the Zips.  They also covered last year in their tough 13-14 home loss to Akron as 7-point dogs.  I fully expect the Minutemen to not only stay within a touchdown of the Zips, but to also win this game outright.

The Zips are 17-37-1 ATS in their last 55 conference games.  The Minutemen are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 conference games.  Akron is 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Zips are 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a losing record.  The Minutemen are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games on fieldturf.  These last four trends combine for a 26-0 system backing the Minutemen.  Bet UMass Tuesday.

15* Arizona State/Oregon State ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State +8

The Arizona State Sun Devils (8-1) are way overvalued right now due to their five straight victories and No. 6 playoff ranking heading into this showdown with Oregon State. They are also in a bit of a letdown spot here off their huge win over Notre Dame last week in which the Fighting Irish simply handed them the win. They committed five turnovers and did not win despite gaining 487 total yards.

The Beavers certainly want to make a bowl game and will be fighting the rest of the way for two wins in their final three games to try and get to one. They are undervalued right now after losing four straight and failing to cover the spread in all four. That’s why they are catching 9.5 points at home against the Sun Devils this week. Asking ASU to go on the road and beat the Beavers by double-digits to cover this spread is asking too much.

ASU is extremely fortunate to be 8-1 this season. It has numerous close wins this year, including a 3-point win over Utah and a 4-point win over USC thanks to a hail mary on the final play of the game. The Sun Devils have only outgained one of their last seven opponents by more than 68 yards, yet they have gone 6-1 during this stretch.

The Sun Devils are winning the turnover battle of late as they are +6 in their last five games, which has been the difference. You can’t count on turnovers when predicting outcomes of games.  They got 28 points off of turnovers last week against Notre Dame, and have received multiple turnovers in three of their last four games. 

The Beavers have been very good with the ball this season, committing just five turnovers in six Pac-12 games.  Look for that trend to continue and for Mike Riley's team to stay within a touchdown and possibly pull off the upset because they are not going to give the game to ASU like so many teams have before them.

The weakness of the Arizona State defense is clearly against the pass. It gave up 355 passing yards in its 27-62 home loss to UCLA back on September 25th. It allowed 313 to Colorado, 273 to USC and 446 to Notre Dame as well. The strength of the Oregon State offense is its passing game. It is averaging 280 passing yards per game and 7.3 per attempt. I look for its offense to move the football at will through the air against this ASU defense.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series. The home team has won four straight and seven of the last eight meetings between Arizona State and Oregon State. The Beavers have won each of their last four meetings with the Sun Devils in Corvallis. That’s why the home team has been favored in each of the last eight meetings because home field means so much. Getting the Beavers as a big home dog here certainly shows that there is value in backing them given this recent history of home dominance.

Oregon State is 25-8 ATS in its last 33 games following two or more consecutive overs. The Beavers are 30-14 ATS in their last 44 games off two straight losses to conference opponents. Oregon State is 8-0 ATS after allowing 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games since 1992.  It is coming back to win 31.6 to 21.9 in this spot. Mike Riley is 9-2 ATS off an upset loss to a conference opponent as a home favorite as the coach of Oregon State. The Beavers are 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Oregon State Saturday.

15* Florida State/Miami ACC Saturday No-Brainer on Florida State -2.5

Rarely ever will you get the opportunity to back the defending champion Florida State Seminoles (9-0) at this short of a price. I believe it would be wise to take advantage and side with the defending champs, who just seem to have a will to win no matter the situation. They may not have been completely focused this season up to this point, but the fact of the matter is that they are 9-0. The Hurricanes will certainly have their full attention this week.

Because Florida State has gone just 2-7 ATS in its nine games this year, the betting public actually has wanted to stay away from them in recent weeks. They obviously came into 2014 with the kind of lofty expectations that were simply impossible to live up to considering their schedule got much tougher this year. I also believe that this poor ATS record is why we are getting the opportunity to back the Seminoles at such a great price this week.

While Miami is a quality team and improved over a year ago, I still don’t believe it has what it takes to pull off this caliber of upset. Its six wins this season have come against the likes of UNC, Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, Duke, Arkansas State and Florida A&M. I wouldn’t say any of those six teams are quality opponents. The Hurricanes’ three losses have come against their toughest three opponents in Georgia Tech (17-28), Nebraska (31-41) and Louisville (13-31) all by double-digits.

Florida State has played the tougher schedule this year, beating the likes of Louisville, Notre Dame, Clemson (without Winston) and Oklahoma State. It has put up 31 or more points in every game this year aside from that Clemson game, which Winston didn't play in. It is averaging 37.9 points per game on the season. Winston just has a knack for playing his best football when the game is in the balance, so if this one goes down to the wire, my money is on him rather than Miami freshman Brad Kaaya.

The Hurricanes figure to rely a lot on running back Duke Johnson in this one. Well, the Seminoles have proven more than capable of stopping the run. They are giving up 135.7 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season. I look for their focus to be on shutting Johnson down and making Kaaya try and beat them, which I don’t think the freshman is capable of doing.

The Seminoles are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. The Hurricanes are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. FSU beat Miami 41-14 last year for its fourth straight victory in this series. It outgained the Hurricanes 517-275 for the game.  After dropping from No. 2 to No. 3 in the playoff rankings, look for the Seminoles to play an inspired football game against Miami because of it.  Roll with Florida State Saturday.

25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Arkansas PK

The LSU Tigers (7-3) are in an absolutely terrible spot here. They are emotionally deflated from their loss to the Crimson Tide in overtime last week. That was their “Game of the Year”, so to speak, and it will be impossible for them to get back up off the mat and bring their best effort against the Razorbacks this week.

The Tigers are going to need their best to beat this improved Arkansas squad, and they just won't have it this weekend.  That was a physically draining game against the Crimson Tide last week, and now they'll be up against another physical football team that loves to pound the rock and beat up opposing defenses with its massive offensive line.

Yes, Arkansas has not won an SEC game over the past two seasons, but that is no indication of what kind of team this is. It has simply been on the wrong end of many close games against the top teams in the SEC. That includes losses to Mississippi State (10-17) and Alabama (13-14) by a combined eight points, which are two of the top five teams in the country right now. They also lost to Texas A&M (28-35) in overtime.  If they can play with those three teams, they can certainly beat LSU at home.

The Tigers have lost three games this year despite playing a home-heavy schedule with only two true road games this year. They have not played well in those road games, either, losing at Auburn 7-41 and beating a down Florida team 30-27. I just don’t trust them on the road in this spot with the hangover effect from the Alabama game proving to be too much for them to overcome.

Arkansas also wants revenge from a brutal last-second loss to LSU last year. It went into Death Valley and had a 27-24 lead late as a 28-point underdog. The Tigers would get a 99-yard drive that culminated in a 49-yard touchdown pass from Anthony Jennings to Travin Dural with only 1:15 remaining to escape with a victory from the jaws of defeat.

The Razorbacks also need another two wins to become bowl eligible, and this is one that they must get.  They will be motivated as well to put an end to their 17-game SEC losing streak.  It will be a rowdy atmosphere in Fayetteville as this will be a night game.  Temperatures are expected to be around 38 degrees, so don't expect LSU to be thrilled about going to play in a physical, cold weather game either.

LSU almost exclusively relies on the run this season. It is averaging 221 rushing yards per game to just 177 passing yards per contest. That makes this an excellent matchup for the Razorbacks. They are giving up just 137 rushing yards per game and 4.0 per carry against teams that average 203 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry.  So, they are holding the opposition to 66 yards per game less than their season averages.

They held Alabama to just 66 rushing yards on 32 carries, Northern Illinois to 123 yards on 32 carries, and Mississippi State to 128 yards on 35 carries, which are three powerful running teams.  Those numbers really stood out to me because if they can stop those three teams' running games, they can certainly stop LSU's rushing attack.

Les Miles is 7-27 ATS off a two-game home stand as the coach of LSU. Miles is 12-27 ATS versus good rushing teams that average 4.75 or more yards per carry as the coach of LSU. Arkansas is 8-1 ATS in its last nine vs. a team with a winning record.

Finally, the Razorbacks have had two weeks of rest heading into this one after last playing on November 1st. Pretty much every situational factor is in their favor in this one, and I'm not so certain that they aren't the better team as it is.  This is certainly a great matchup for them as well.  That's why they have earned the status as my 25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas +28.5

The TCU Horned Frogs (8-1) have been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season. That could not be more evident than the fact that they have gone 8-1 against the spread in their nine games. They are finally getting the respect they deserve not only from the playoff committee with their No. 4 ranking, but also the oddsmakers. They are now overvalued this week laying four touchdowns to the Jayhawks on the road.

TCU has only played three true road games all season. One was a 56-0 win over SMU, which may be the worst team in all of college football. Another resulted in a loss to Baylor (58-61) as they allowed 782 total yards to the Bears, and the other was a one-point win at West Virginia (31-30) in a game they probably should have lost, but the Mountaineers committed five turnovers to gift-wrap the win for them.

Kansas has actually played pretty well at home this year. It is 3-2 at home with all three of its victories coming in Lawrence. That includes a 24-10 win over a solid Central Michigan team from the MAC, and a 34-14 win against Iowa State last week. The Jayhawks have only lost one Big 12 game by more than 23 points this season, and that was a 60-14 loss at Baylor, which just beats down everyone at home. They also played Oklahoma State tough in a 20-27 home loss as an 18-point dog.

That game against the Cyclones last week was awfully impressive. The Jayhawks dominated from start to finish, and the 20-point result was every bit the blowout that the final score would indicate. They outgained the Cyclones 514-373 for the game, or by 141 total yards. Michael Cummings threw for 278 yards and a touchdown, while Corey Avery and Troy Pierson each rushed for over 100 yards in the win.

Interim head coach Clint Bowen has really lifted the spirits of these players since the firing of Charlie Weis.  All of their hard work finally payed off last week in that 34-14 win over the Cyclones, and now they will have supreme confidence in what Bowen is doing.  This team really feels like they can compete with TCU, and I look for them to show it on the field Saturday.

The Horned Frogs are in a massive letdown spot here off their big win over Kansas State last week. They are also feeling pretty good about themselves after moving up to No. 4 in the playoff rankings. They could also start to feel the pressure from that ranking and not play their best because of it. Either way, this is a tough spot for them, especially asking them to win by more than four touchdowns on the road when they haven’t played that well away from home.

Plays against road favorites (TCU) – excellent offensive team (at least 440 YPG) against an average offensive team (330 to 390 YPG), after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.

The Jayhawks only lost by 10 at TCU as a 24-point dog last year and by 14 at home as an 18.5-point dog to the Horned Frogs in 2012. I anticipate this game will be closer than most think as well, and for the Jayhawks to stay within the inflated number for a third straight season.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Clemson -2.5

The Clemson Tigers (7-2) have done a remarkable job of moving forward in the right direction with six straight wins despite only having star quarterback DeShaun Watson for two of those games. Those were the first two of the streak, and the Tigers put up a combined 91 points against UNC and NC State with Watson at the helm. Well, he is expected to return as the starter this week, giving the offense a huge boost.

Clemson was held to an average of 22.5 points per game over its last four with Cole Stoudt as the quarterback in wins over Louisville, Boston College, Syracuse and Wake Forest. Normally that wouldn’t be enough to win all four games, but it was because the defense held all four of those opponents to 20 or fewer points and an average of 14.0 points per game.

For the season, this Clemson defense is only allowing 18.4 points and 252.3 yards per game to rank second in the country in total defense. In fact, it has allowed 273 yards or fewer in five consecutive games coming in. That includes 119 yards to Wake Forest, 170 yards to Syracuse, and 156 yards to NC State.

Georgia Tech has won three in a row in blowout fashion, and I believe it is overvalued as a result. The Yellow Jackets have essentially been gift-wrapped all three of those wins as their opponents have committed a combined 11 turnovers during this stretch. They are not going to continue to be so fortunate in the turnover department.

The Tigers last played on Thursday, November 6th. While normally two extra days of rest wouldn’t be a big deal, it is in this situation. Any time you get some extra preparation before facing Georgia Tech it’s a big deal because the triple-option is one of the toughest schemes to prepare for.

The Yellow Jackets obviously rely heavily on the run as they average 55 attempts for 336 yards per game compared to 15 pass attempts for 146 yards per game. Perhaps no team in the country is more prepared to stop the triple-option than Clemson. It is allowing just 91 rushing yards per game and 2.7 per carry this season.

The Tigers have won their last two meetings with the Yellow Jackets in blowout fashion. They won 55-31 at home last year and 47-31 at home in 2012. The Tigers should put up another big number on this Georgia Tech defense, which is yielding 408.7 yards per game. Watson has been brilliant when he’s been healthy, completing 67.0 percent of his passes for 1,176 yards with 12 touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 147 yards and three scores.

Georgia Tech is 0-7 ATS versus good offensive teams that average at least 425 yards per game over the last two seasons. The Yellow Jackets are 6-19-2 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven visits to Georgia Tech. Clemson is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after playing its last game on the road.  Take Clemson Saturday.

20* Tulsa/UCF AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Central Florida -19

The UCF Knights are going to be highly motivated for a win Friday when they host the Golden Hurricane. They are coming off a 29-37 loss at UConn last time out in a game they never should have lost. They actually outgained the Huskies by 102 total yards, but they committed four turnovers, which cost them the win.  They are still 3-1 within the AAC and right in the hunt for the conference title just a half-game back.

They have had two weeks off since that loss, while Tulsa played SMU on Saturday and will be working on a short week. That extra rest will certainly come in handy here, and it will give the Knights a chance to correct their mistakes. They have actually won three of their last four games despite committing a combined 14 turnovers during this stretch. If they just take care of the football, they will have no problem winning this game by 20-plus points, which I fully expect them to do.

The Knights won their last home game by 20 points over Temple (34-14) in a game that was every bit the blowout that the final score indicated. They outgained the Owls 466-182 for the game and forced four turnovers. That is a very good Owls team that has a win over East Carolina this year. If they can dominate Temple at home like that, they can certainly do the same against Tulsa.

The Golden Hurricane really do not have much to play for the rest of the way. They are 2-7 this year and are coming off an unconvincing 38-28 home win over SMU, which may be the worst team in all of college football. They had lost seven straight prior to that win, including road losses to Memphis (20-40), Colorado State (17-42) and Florida Atlantic (21-50). UCF is every bit as good as those three teams, if not better.

Tulsa is 0-4 on the road this season, getting outscored by an average of 21.2 points per game.  UCF Is 4-0 in home games, outscoring opponents by an average of 17.0 points per game.  Home-field advantage is obviously going to be huge in this one for the Knights against a Tulsa team that has been atrocious on the road.

The Knights have really played well offensively of late, averaging 31.5 points and 447.5 yards per game in their last two contests. They should have no problem moving the football and scoring points against this pathetic Tulsa defense. The Golden Hurricane are allowing 39.2 points, 484 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play against opponents that are only averaging 26.4 points, 381 yards, and 5.5 per play on offense. This is easily one of the worst defenses in the entire country.

Plays against a road team (TULSA) – bad team – outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game, after three straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 66-28 (70.2%) ATS since 1992. The Knights are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games following a S.U. loss.

Tulsa is 1-11 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last two seasons. The Golden Hurricane are 0-7 ATS after having lost two out of its last three games over the last two years. UCF is 8-0 ATS after playing its last game on the road over the past two seasons. These three trends combine for a 26-1 system backing the Knights.  Bet UCF Friday.

15* CFB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Southern Miss +9

The UTSA Roadrunners had big expectations coming into the year. They were thinking they could win a Conference USA Title thanks to playing in a weak division. Many picked them to do so, including myself. But my opinion on this team has changed drastically from the start of the year. There just isn’t much to like about the Roadrunners, who are 2-7 and in the midst of a lost season.

The reason UTSA has struggled this year is due to its offense that simply cannot move the football and score points with any consistency. Indeed, the Roadrunners are putting up just 16.9 points per game this season while ranking 125th out of 128 teams in the country in total offense at 282.1 yards per game. They have been held to 20 or fewer points in five straight games. I just don’t trust that this UTSA offense is capable of scoring enough points to win by double-digits, which is what it would take to cover this 9-point spread.

While it’s not saying much, the fact of the matter is that Southern Miss is one of the most improved teams in the country over a year ago. They have won three games this season and have been much more competitive in the losses, aside from a blowout at the hands of Marshall last week. Well, the Thundering Herd are likely to go 12-0 this year, so that’s no surprise.

Unlike the Roadrunners, the Eagles do have a respectable offense that has kept them in ball games. They are averaging 370.6 yards per game on the season. Their defense hasn’t been as bad as the numbers show when you consider the opposition faced. They are giving up 452 yards per game against opposing offenses that average 437 yards per game. They have certainly faced a more difficult schedule than UTSA, yet they have a better record (3-7).

Common opponents are a great way to compare teams. Both Southern Miss and UTSA have played the same three teams this year. Both are 0-3 against those teams, but there is a distinct difference. The Eagles are getting outscored by 16.3 points per game against those three teams, but only getting outgained by 3.0 yards per game. The Roadrunners are getting outscored by 17.0 points per game and outgained by 132.7 yards per game against them.

UTSA has not played well at home at all this year.  It is 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in its three home games.  It lost to New Mexico 9-21 as a 16.5-point favorite, only beat Florida International 16-13 as an 8-point favorite, and lost to UTEP 0-34 as a 14-point favorite.  That 34-point loss to the Miners happened just two games ago and gives you an indication of the kind of football the Roadrunners are playing of late.  They only gained 70 yards of total offense in that loss.

Plays on road underdogs (SOUTHERN MISS) – after a loss by 21 or more points against opponent after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in two straight games are 51-23 (68.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. UTSA is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a loss. The Golden Eagles are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a double-digit loss at home.  Take Southern Miss Thursday.

15* MAC Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Massachusetts -3.5

The UMass Minutemen get a rare opportunity to play on a nationally televised stage Wednesday night in front of their home fans at McGuirk Alumni Stadium. They will certainly be jacked up for this one, while Ball State could suffer a letdown here. The Cardinals are coming off another loss to hated rival Northern Illinois at home last week, and now their chances of making a bowl game are slim to none at 3-6 on the year.

UMass has a huge edge in rest heading into this one. It last placed on October 25th against Toledo, while Ball State faced NIU last Wednesday on November 5th. The Minutemen have had essentially two and a half weeks to get ready for the Cardinals, so they’ll be well-rested and ready to go in this one.

The Minutemen are the definition of a team that is better than their record would indicate. They have gone 2-7 straight up this season, but are a sensational 7-2 ATS because they have lost so many close games. Five of their seven losses have come by a touchdown or less.

Their most impressive performance of the year may have come in a losing effort last time out against Toledo. They only lost 35-42 on the road as 17.5-point underdogs and were only outgained by 23 yards by the Rockets, who are 5-1 in the MAC this season. If they can play with the Rockets on the road, they can certainly play with anyone in this conference.

Despite being 2-7, the Minutemen are only getting outgained by an average of 23.0 yards per game. They have an explosive offense that is putting up 30.8 points and 435.3 yards per game this season. Blake Frohnapfel is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country. He has thrown for 2,921 yards with 23 touchdowns and only eight interceptions on the season.

I really like the way that the Minutemen have played in their last three games coming in.  Prior to that narrow 7-point loss at Toledo, they had beaten Kent State 40-17 on the road followed by a 36-14 home victory over Eastern Michigan.  They racked up 482 yards of offense on the Golden Flashes, 562 yards on the Eagles, and 497 yards on the Rockets.  Dating back further, they have now amassed at least 482 yards of offense in each of their last five games.

Ball State is every bit as bad as its 3-6 record would indicate. It has only outgained two opponents all season. One was Colgate in the opener, and the other was Akron a couple weeks ago in a game the Zips were playing without starting quarterback Kyle Pohl. The Cardinals are getting outgained by an average of 45.4 yards per game on the season. Take away the Colgate game, and that number jumps to 74.9 yards per game.

The Minutemen are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games on turf. UMass is 5-0 ATS in its last five conference games. The Minutemen are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a losing record. UMass is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games. The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five November games. Ball State is 1-5 ATS in its last six games after allowing less than 170 passing yards in its previous game.  Bet UMass Wednesday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Akron -3.5

The Akron Zips are highly motivated to become bowl eligible this season. At 4-5 on the year, they know they probably need to win out to get invited to a bowl game, which is exactly what they’ll set out to do. They have lost three in a row coming in, but two of those came without starting quarterback Kyle Pohl.

Pohl returned to action against Bowling Green last week and was rusty, completing just 31 of 62 passes for 304 yards without a touchdown and three interceptions. Look for him to have shaken off the rust and to perform much better this week against a terrible Buffalo defense.

The Bulls, meanwhile, have little to play for right now after four straight losses that have dropped them to 3-6 on the season. They have been outgained badly in three of their last four games, and they lost the other game 27-37 at Eastern Michigan, which is one of the worst teams in all of the FBS. They were outgained by 255 yards by Ohio last week in a 14-37 road loss last Wednesday.

The difference in this game is going to be the Akron defense vs. the Buffalo defense. Akron has been very good on that side of the ball, giving up just 21.0 points per game, 370.2 yards per game, and 5.0 yards per play. Buffalo, meanwhile, is allowing 33.6 points per game, 424.0 yards per game, and 6.2 yards per play. You also have to consider that the Zips have played the tougher schedule by far, which makes their numbers all the more impressive.

Common opponents is a great way to compare teams. Both the Zips and the Bulls have squared off against the same four teams this year. The Zips are 2-2 against those four teams, outscoring them by an average of 2.2 points per game. The Bulls are 1-3 against those same four teams, getting outscored by an average of 6.5 points per game. Akron is allowing just 18.8 points per game against those four teams, while Buffalo is yielding 34.3 points per game against them.

Terry Bowden is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games after a game with 50 or more pass attempts as the coach of Akron. These high-volume passing games usually come in losses, which is why they are usually showing value the next week when they come back from them. The Zips simply beat themselves against Bowling Green by committing five turnovers. They actually outgained the Falcons for the game.  Bet Akron Tuesday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Oregon -8

This is a pretty generous line to be able to back the Ducks with. They have kicked it into high gear of late, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall to really make a strong push at the four-team playoff.  They have outscored their last four opponents by an average of 21.0 points per game.

Even after their 45-16 beat down of Stanford last week, they know their work isn’t done. Marcus Mariota did not come back for his junior season just to let his team suffer another letdown for a third straight year. Look for the Ducks to be 100% focused against the Utes as they know some unfinished business remains.

The Ducks once again boast one of the top offenses in the country. Putting up 45 points and 525 total yards on that Stanford defense is no small feat. They were right on par with their season averages as they put up 45.4 points and 533.8 yards per game on the season. They should be able to put up another big number this week against a Utah team that is simply overrated right now.

I don’t even believe that the Utes are one of the Top 25 teams in the country even though they're ranked 17th. They have been extremely fortunate to get to 6-2 this season. In fact, the Utes have actually been outgained by their opponents in six straight games, yet they have gone 4-2 during this stretch. They are getting outgained 373.4 to 385.2 on the season and don’t have an offense explosive enough to keep up with the Ducks in this one.

Last week’s 16-19 loss to Arizona State was far from the close game that the final score would indicate. The Sun Devils actually outgained the Utes 444-241 for the game, or by 203 total yards. Utah quarterback Travis Wilson went just 12-of-22 passing for 57 yards with a touchdown in the loss. Wilson isn’t going to be able to match Mariota score-for-score in this one.

Oregon is 9-1 ATS after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game over the last two seasons. The Ducks are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 road games overall. Oregon is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

The Utes are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  They allowed 239 rushing yards to the Sun Devils last week.  The Ducks have rushed for 218-plus yards in four straight games and should have no problem moving the football on the ground in this one.  Bet Oregon Saturday.

15* Kansas State/TCU Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on TCU -6

The TCU Horned Frogs have been the single-most underrated team in the country this season. They have gone 7-1 straight up and 7-1 against the spread in 2014 to make backers like myself a ton of money. While they were overvalued last week at West Virginia, they still nearly covered with a one-point win as a 3-point favorite. They are undervalued this week as only 6-point home favorites over the Kansas State Wildcats.

Trevone Boykin really needs to be in the Heisman Trophy discussion. He leads a new & improved TCU offense that is putting up 48.0 points and 550.0 yards per game this season to rank 4th in the country in total offense. Boykin is completing 57.0 percent of his passes for 2,472 yards with 22 touchdowns against four interceptions, while also rushing for 423 yards and four scores.

While the offense has played very well, the defense doesn’t get enough credit for the job that it has done, either. The Frogs are allowing just 22.6 points and 370.0 yards per game this season despite facing an extremely difficult schedule. Stopping Jake Waters and the Kansas State rushing attack will be key, and the Frogs are equipped to do it. They are only allowing 140 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry this season.

Kansas State is nowhere near as good as the seventh-best team in the country, which is where it is currently ranked. Sure, it is the only unbeaten team left in the Big 12, but it has faced a very easy conference schedule thus far. It still has road games at TCU, WVU and Baylor left on its schedule. Its true colors will show over the next four weeks as I wouldn’t be surprise to see it go 1-3 during this stretch.

Sure, Kansas State went into Oklahoma and won 31-30, but it should never have won that game as Oklahoma’s kicker gift-wrapped it for the Wildcats. They were outgained by the Sooners 385-533 for the game, but they were able to win because Michael Hunnicut missed an extra point and a chip shot field goal with only a few ticks remaining. Look for the Wildcats to get dominated in the box score in this one as well, and to lose big like they should this time around.

TCU played Kansas State very tough on the road last year. It only lost by a final of 31-33 as an 11.5-point underdog. It’s hard to even describe how much improved these 2014 Horned Frogs are over last year’s version. They will be looking for revenge on the Wildcats at home this time around. The Horned Frogs are 5-0 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by 29.8 points per game.

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TCU) – off a win against a conference rival against opponent off three straight wins against conference rivals are 57-24 (70.4%) ATS since 1992. TCU is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games. The Horned Frogs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games dating back to last season.  Take TCU Saturday.

15* Virginia/Florida State ACC No-Brainer on Virginia +20.5

The Virginia Cavaliers were one of the surprise teams in the early going with their 4-2 start. They had beaten the likes of Louisville and Pittsburgh with their only losses coming to BYU (33-41) and UCLA (20-28) up to that point. They would go on to lose two more close games to Duke (13-20) and North Carolina (27-28) before their worst performance of the season last week against Georgia Tech (10-35).

I believe that performance is why this line is so high, and that showing was an aberration when you look at how close their other four losses were coming in. The Cavaliers had not lost by more than eight points in any game up to that point, and they are still a very solid team. The problem is that they have failed to cover the spread in four straight, so the betting public wants nothing to do with them right now. That has provided us with some nice line value in this one.

Meanwhile, Florida State is coming off its big National TV win at Louisville last week, so the betting public is back on the FSU train. The Seminoles have no business being this heavily favored against a quality Virginia squad. They are in a big letdown spot here off that big win over Louisville and with a trip to Miami on deck next week. I don’t expect them to bring their best effort to the field Saturday night, which will have the Cavaliers staying within three touchdowns.

Florida State has been overvalued for most of the season. It is just 2-6 ATS in its eight games this year. It has only beaten two teams by more than 18 points this year. Those were home games against FBS foe The Citadel (37-12) as a 56.5-point favorite and Wake Forest (43-3) as a 37-point favorite. The Seminoles only beat Oklahoma State by 6, Clemson by 6, NC State by 15, Syracuse by 18, Notre Dame by 4 and Louisville by 11. I believe Virginia is better than half of those teams.

This Virginia defense is fully capable of limiting this FSU offense. The Cavaliers are only giving up 24.2 points, 344.7 yards, and 5.0 yards per play against opponents who average 29.3 points, 421 yards, and 5.7 yards per play this season. Florida State is allowing 22.7 points, 388.6 yards, and 5.3 yards per play against teams that average 25.3 points, 371 yards, and 5.2 per play. The Seminoles rank just 10th in the ACC in total defense.

“We’re playing for coach (Mike) London, we’re playing for our teammates, we’re playing for the season, we’re playing for a bowl game,” said tight end Zachary Swanson, who played on the ’11 team that beat FSU 14-13 in Tallahassee. “We have three more opportunities to win two and I think it’s a big thing for us to get these wins, and play hard, for whatever our reasons may be.”

The Cavaliers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  Virginia is 5-2 ATS in its last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Seminoles are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Florida State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing more than 450 total yards in its previous game.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Idaho +21

The oddsmakers are asking San Diego State to cover a very big number here against Idaho, and I don't believe the Aztecs are capable of doing so.  That's why I'll side with the road underdog Vandals here catching three touchdowns in a game that I believe will go right down to the wire.

The betting public wants nothing to do with this 1-7 Idaho team.  That record is the reason they are showing such good value here.  However, a closer investigation shows that they are a much better football team than that record would indicate.

Five of the Vandals' seven losses have come by 16 points or fewer.  The other two were a 24-point loss to South Alabma and a 23-point loss at Georgia Southern, which is a team that is one of the most underrated in the country.

Idaho comes into this game playing some very good football.  It has actually outgained three of its last four opponents despite going 1-3 during this stretch.  The lone exception was that 23-point road loss to Georgia Southern, which again, isn't a bad loss at all.

When I take big underdogs like this, I like them to be able to put up points because that always gives them a chance to score and get a backdoor cover if need be.  While I don't think that will be needed in this one, I do like what I've seen from this Idaho offense.

Indeed, the Vandals are scoring 26.1 points per game and averaging 426.0 yards per game.  Matt Linehan is completing 60.9 percent of his passes for 1,982 yards on the season, and Jerrel Brown has rushed for 451 yards while averaging 5.2 per carry.  Elijhaa Penny has added 368 rushing yards and nine touchdowns.

San Diego State is just 4-4 on the season.  Its four wins have come against the likes of Northern Arizona, UNLV, New Mexico and Hawaii.  It has only won one game by more than 17 points this season, and that was against FCS foe NAU.  It only beat Hawaii by 10, New Mexico by 10, and UNLV by 17, which are three awful teams that I believe Idaho could beat.

The Aztecs simply lack the offense to cover such a big number like this one.  They are only scoring 22.1 points per game and averaging 388.7 yards per game.  That's really bad when you consider that their eight opponents faced thus far average giving up 33.1 points per game and 451 yards per game on defense.

Plays on road underdogs (IDAHO) - off a home loss by 14 or more points, with 17 or more total starters returning are 69-34 (67%) ATS since 1992.  The Vandals are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  The Aztecs are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall. 

Off a big loss at Nevada last week, and with Boise State on deck, this is certainly a letdown spot for SDSU as well.  I don't expect them to have the kind of focus or the offensive firepower it will take to win this game by more than three touchdowns against a sneaky Vandals squad.  Roll with Idaho Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia Southern -14

This line has been bet up from -10 to -14 already and I still don't believe it's enough.  The Georgia Southern Eagles are one of the most underrated teams in all of college football.  They are an under-the-radar team from the Sun Belt that the oddsmakers just haven't been able to keep up with.

The Eagles are 7-2 this season with their only losses coming on the road to NC State (23-24) and Georgia Tech (38-42) by a combined five points.  Six of their seven wins have come by 20 points or more, so this team has been blowing out the opposition on the regular.

Georgia Southern boasts a potent offense that is putting up 44.4 points, 519.0 yards per game and 7.7 yards per play.  It is giving up just 20.9 points, 379.1 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play.  As you can see, it is outscoring opponents by an average of 23.5 points per game and outgaining foes by 139.9 yards per game.

Texas State is a quality team, but it isn't capable of keeping up with the Eagles in this one.  That's because its defense is giving 27.7 points, 460.9 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play.  That is really bad when you consider its opponents are only averaging 384 yards per game on the season, so it is allowing roughly 77 yards per game more than its opposing offenses have averaged on the season.

This is just a terrible matchup for the Bobcats.  They are allowing 218 rushing yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry.  There's no way they are going to be able to slow down a Georgia Southern rushing attack that is averaging 407 yards per game and 7.4 yards per carry on the year.  The Eagles are going to score and score some more because there's nothing the Bobcats are going to be able to do to stop them.

Plays on road favorites (GA SOUTHERN) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games are 70-32 (68.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Texas State is 0-6 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons.  The Eagles are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall, including 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games.  The Bobcats are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Take Georgia Southern Saturday.

20* Baylor/Oklahoma Side & Total Parlay on Baylor +5/UNDER 72

I realize Baylor has not been nearly as good on the road as it has been at home over the past few seasons. That being said, I still believe there is value in backing the Bears as 5-point underdogs in this contest against the Sooners. They are the better team and that will show on the football field Saturday afternoon as they likely win this game outright.

Baylor continues to be a spread-covering machine this season with a 5-2-1 ATS mark. It leads the country in scoring offense (50.4 PPG) and total offense (590.2 YPG) this season. Bryce Petty is having yet another monster year, throwing for 2,034 yards with 20 touchdowns against only three interceptions. He has also rushed for 111 yard and three scores. He has the best group of receivers in the entire country to get the ball to and make plays.

The most underrated facet of this Baylor team is a defense that is giving up just 21.9 points and 322.6 yards per game. Sure, the Bears did lose at West Virginia a few weeks back, but they are still 3-1 straight up and 2-1-1 against the spread on the road this year. That game against West Virginia was also played in awful conditions, which hurt the Baylor offense.

Oklahoma just has not looked good in three of its last four games. Sure, it beat Iowa State handily last week, but it rolls the Cyclones year in and year out. The previous three games saw it lose at TCU 33-37 as a 3-point favorite, win against Texas 31-26 as a 16.5-point favorite, and lose at home against Kansas State 30-31 as a 7-point favorite. The Sooners have now allowed 26 or more points in four of their last five games overall.

Baylor is 2-1 straight up and 3-0 against the spread in its last three meetings with Oklahoma. Its only loss came by a final of 34-42 as a 21-point road underdog in 2012. Last year, the Bears dominated the Sooners in a 41-12 home victory. They outgained them 459-237 for the game, or by 222 total yards. Bryce Petty threw for 204 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for two scores, and Shock Linwood rushed for 182 yards in the win.

Plays on road underdogs (BAYLOR) – outrushing their opponents by 1.75 or more yards/carry on the season, after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Baylor is 7-0 ATS off a win by 35 or more points over the last two seasons. The Bears are 8-1 ATS when playing a team with a winning percentage between 60% and 75% over the last three seasons. Baylor is 20-6-1 ATS in its last 27 games overall. The road team is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Baylor is 6-0 ATS in its last six visits to Oklahoma.

I am also siding on the UNDER in this game game.  I look for it to play out similar to last year when Baylor won 41-12 for 53 combined points.  I love this Baylor defense that is much better than it gets credit for.  Oklahoma also has a solid defense that is giving up 21.7 points and 383.6 yards per game. 

The reason this total has been inflated is because both teams are coming off high-scoring games last week.  Also, Oklahoma has gone over the total in five straight games.  There's clearly some value in this UNDER because of it.  I'm looking for somewhere around a 30-20 final here with the Bears winning and covering and the UNDER coming through with ease.  Roll with Baylor and the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Baylor/Oklahoma Side & Total Parlay on Baylor +5/UNDER 72

I realize Baylor has not been nearly as good on the road as it has been at home over the past few seasons. That being said, I still believe there is value in backing the Bears as 5-point underdogs in this contest against the Sooners. They are the better team and that will show on the football field Saturday afternoon as they likely win this game outright.

Baylor continues to be a spread-covering machine this season with a 5-2-1 ATS mark. It leads the country in scoring offense (50.4 PPG) and total offense (590.2 YPG) this season. Bryce Petty is having yet another monster year, throwing for 2,034 yards with 20 touchdowns against only three interceptions. He has also rushed for 111 yard and three scores. He has the best group of receivers in the entire country to get the ball to and make plays.

The most underrated facet of this Baylor team is a defense that is giving up just 21.9 points and 322.6 yards per game. Sure, the Bears did lose at West Virginia a few weeks back, but they are still 3-1 straight up and 2-1-1 against the spread on the road this year. That game against West Virginia was also played in awful conditions, which hurt the Baylor offense.

Oklahoma just has not looked good in three of its last four games. Sure, it beat Iowa State handily last week, but it rolls the Cyclones year in and year out. The previous three games saw it lose at TCU 33-37 as a 3-point favorite, win against Texas 31-26 as a 16.5-point favorite, and lose at home against Kansas State 30-31 as a 7-point favorite. The Sooners have now allowed 26 or more points in four of their last five games overall.

Baylor is 2-1 straight up and 3-0 against the spread in its last three meetings with Oklahoma. Its only loss came by a final of 34-42 as a 21-point road underdog in 2012. Last year, the Bears dominated the Sooners in a 41-12 home victory. They outgained them 459-237 for the game, or by 222 total yards. Bryce Petty threw for 204 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for two scores, and Shock Linwood rushed for 182 yards in the win.

Plays on road underdogs (BAYLOR) – outrushing their opponents by 1.75 or more yards/carry on the season, after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Baylor is 7-0 ATS off a win by 35 or more points over the last two seasons. The Bears are 8-1 ATS when playing a team with a winning percentage between 60% and 75% over the last three seasons. Baylor is 20-6-1 ATS in its last 27 games overall. The road team is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Baylor is 6-0 ATS in its last six visits to Oklahoma.

I am also siding on the UNDER in this game game.  I look for it to play out similar to last year when Baylor won 41-12 for 53 combined points.  I love this Baylor defense that is much better than it gets credit for.  Oklahoma also has a solid defense that is giving up 21.7 points and 383.6 yards per game. 

The reason this total has been inflated is because both teams are coming off high-scoring games last week.  Also, Oklahoma has gone over the total in five straight games.  There's clearly some value in this UNDER because of it.  I'm looking for somewhere around a 30-20 final here with the Bears winning and covering and the UNDER coming through with ease.  Roll with Baylor and the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on Wyoming +7

I believe the Wyoming Cowboys are undervalued as 7-point home underdogs coming into this one. At 4-5 on the season, they desperately need to win this game if they want a chance to become bowl eligible because they still have Boise State remaining on the schedule. I’ve been very impressed with the job that Craig Bohl has done in his first season here, making the Cowboys far more competitive than they were expected to be.

Sure, Wyoming lost four straight games prior to beating Fresno State 45-17 last week, but it was competitive in every game aside from a 14-56 loss at Michigan State that started the skid. It only lost by 10 at Hawaii, by 7 to San Jose State in overtime, and by 14 at Colorado State as a 19.5-point underdogs. That tough stretch of games had the Cowboys battle-tested heading into last week’s game against Fresno State, and boy did they put on a show.

The Cowboys are coming off their best performance of the season against the Bulldogs last week. They won by a whopping 28 points on the road despite being 16-point underdogs in that contest. They outgained the Bulldogs 694-316 for the game as this was every bit the blowout that the final score indicated. Colby Kirkegaard threw for 320 yards and two touchdowns, while Brian Hill rushed for 281 yards and two scores on 23 carries in the win.

Utah State is coming off a 35-14 blowout win of its own at Hawaii last week, but it is overvalued here as a result. That game was much closer than the final score would indicate as the Aggies only outgained the Warriors 465-454 for the game. The Aggies benefited from a defensive touchdown and finished +3 in turnover differential in the win.

While I admit that Kent Myers looked very good in his first start for the Aggies against the Warriors, he wasn’t asked to do much as he threw for just 186 yards on 15 attempts in the win. Meyers is a freshman who was supposed to redshirt, but since there have been injuries to the top three quarterbacks on the roster, he has been forced into action. The Aggies certainly should not be a touchdown road favorite here with a fourth-string quarterback under center.

Wyoming is 3-1 at home this season with its only loss coming to San Jose State by a final of 20-27 in overtime. The crowd will be rowdy for this one as this is a rare opportunity for the Cowboys to showcase themselves on National TV. This game will be nationally televised on ESPN 2 Friday night, which will just add more fuel to the fire for the Cowboys. They come in with a ton of confidence off that win against Fresno State last week.

The Cowboys are 24-7 ATS in their last 31 games after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more total yards. The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Wyoming is 4-1 ATS in its last five games after allowing less than 20 points in its previous game. The home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings in this series.  Bet Wyoming Friday.

15* Memphis/Temple AAC Friday No-Brainer on Memphis -7.5

The Temple Owls are in a massive letdown spot here against the Memphis Tigers. They are coming off their biggest win of the season against a ranked opponent in East Carolina. They won that game 20-10, but when you look at the box score, it’s easy to see that it was a complete fluke. The Owls were outgained by the Pirates 135-432 for the game, or by 297 total yards. The difference was that ECU committed five turnovers while the Owls didn’t commit a single one.

That was the third straight lousy performance for the Owls offensively. They only managed 10 points and 357 total yards in a 10-31 loss to Houston on October 17th. They came back and scored just 14 points behind 182 total yards in a 14-34 loss at UCF on October 25th. So, in their last three games combined, Temple has averaged just 16.0 points and 224.7 yards per game.

That’s not going to cut it this week against a Memphis team that is vastly improved over a year ago. Its only three losses this season have come to the likes of UCLA (35-42), Ole Miss (3-24) and Houston (24-28). That’s how close this is to being a 7-1 team right now. The Tigers even trailed the Rebels 7-3 on the road entering the fourth quarter before giving up 17 points in the final period.

Despite playing this tough schedule, the Tigers have put up the kind of numbers that show they are a real contender to win the American Athletic this year after their 3-1 start in conference play. They are scoring 36.2 points and averaging 448.0 yards per game on offense, while giving up just 19.4 points and 350.6 yards per game on defense. In conference play alone, the Tigers are ouscoring teams 38.2 to 18.0 and outgaining them 496.5 to 342.0.

Temple is 3-2 in conference play, but it’s a complete fluke. The Owls are outscoring teams 23.0 to 21.8 within the conference, but they are getting outgained 288.6 to 416.4 in AAC play. So, Memphis is outgaining conference opponents by an average of 154.5 yards per game, while Temple is getting outgained in AAC play by an average of 127.8 yards per game. Without question, the Tigers are the better team despite their identical 5-3 records, and that will show on the football field Friday night.

Memphis is 22-8 ATS in its last 30 November road games. Temple is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games after gaining 75 or less passing yards in its previous game. The Tigers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record. The Owls are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  Take Memphis Friday.

20* MAC Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Illinois -3

While the Huskies are not as dominant as they have been over the past several years, they are still one of the best teams in the MAC at 6-2 on the season with their only losses coming to Arkansas and Central Michigan.  They have taken care of business against all other comers, and have actually played their best football on the road.  They beat the likes of Northwestern, UNLV and Eastern Michigan for a 3-1 record in road games this year.

Despite the losses of two of the best quarterbacks the MAC has ever seen in recent years in Chandler Harnish and Jordan Lynch, the Huskies are still performing at a high level offensively.  They are scoring 31.6 points and averaging 464.9 yards per game.  Drew Hare is completing 60.8 percent of his passes for 1,226 yards with 11 touchdowns and one interception, while also rushing for 581 yards and five scores on 7.6/carry.  He's the next great dual-threat QB for this program.

Ball State is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers in this one as only a 3-point underdog.  That's because it has won its last two games against Central Michigan and Akron.  Well, Central Michigan gave that game away as it outgained the Cardinals by 139 total yards but committed five turnovers in a 29-32 loss.  Akron was playing without starting QB Kyle Pohl in its 21-35 loss to the Cardinals and blew a 21-13 halftime lead thanks to committing five turnovers as well.  So, Ball State has benefited from 10 turnovers by the opposition in its two wins, and that is unsustainable.

The reason the Cardinals stand little chance of keeping this game competitive is because of their offense.  They are only averaging 364 yards per game and 4.9 per play against teams that are allowing 406 yards per game and 5.6 per play.  Defensively, they are giving up 404 yards per game and 5.9 per play against teams that average 374 yards per game and 5.5 per play.  Simply put, the Cardinals are not a very good team this year when you look at the numbers.

Northern Illinois is 5-0 in its last five meetings with Ball State, which includes two blowout victories on the road by finals of 35-23 and 59-21.  The Huskies have put up 569 yards, 509 yards, and 710 yards on the Cardinals in their last three meetings, respectively. 

The Huskies are averaging 269 rushing yards per game and 5.3 per carry this season, which is bad news for the Cardinals, who are giving up 188 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry.  Northern Illinois is 29-14 ATS in its last 43 versus poor rushing defenses that allow 4.75 or more yards per carry. 

The Huskies are 26-11 ATS in their last 37 when playing against a bad team with a winning percentage between 25% and 40%.  The Huskies are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a home record of .500 or worse.  Northern Illinois is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games overall.  Ball State is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Northern Illinois Wednesday.

15* MAC Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Bowling Green +6.5

Asking the Akron Zips to win by a touchdown or more to cover against the defending MAC champs is too much. Sure, Bowling Green isn’t nearly as strong as it was a year ago, but it is still arguably the better team this season at 5-3 compared to the Zips, who are 4-4. I’d much rather take my chances with the road underdog in this one and the points.

The Falcons will have a big edge in this one in the rest department as they last played on October 18th. Meanwhile, the Zips last played on October 25th, so the Falcons have an extra week of preparation for this game under their belts. They will be chomping at the bit to get back on the football field in this one and correct their mistakes from a 14-26 loss to Western Michigan last time out.

Akron has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games overall and clearly has been overvalued since an upset win against Pittsburgh. It is coming off two straight outright losses at Ohio (20-23) and at Ball State (21-35) despite being favored in both contests. This team has no business laying a touchdown tonight off its last four performances.

Bowling Green boasts an offense that has put up 31 or more points in six of its eight games this season. It is averaging 33.6 points and 454.7 yards per game on the season. James Knapke has filled in nicely for the injured Matt Johnson, completing 59.3 percent of his passes for 1,958 yards and 10 touchdowns, while also rushing for 157 yards and five scores. Travis Greene (636 yards, 8 TD, 5.0/carry) and Fred Coppet (366 yards, 5 TD, 5.1/carry) have been a solid 1-2 punch in the backfield.

Akron, on the other hand, is putting up just 22.9 points and 382.7 yards per game this year. That’s why it cannot be trusted to lay points because it struggles to put points on the scoreboard itself. The Zips have been held to 21 or fewer points in five of their eight games this season. They only managed 318 yards against Miami (Ohio), 352 yards against Ohio, and 325 yards against Ball State in their last three games, respectively.

The Falcons are a perfect 5-0 straight up and 5-0 against the spread in their last five meetings with the Zips.  They have won four of those five games by 14 points or more as well while outscoring them by an average of 15.0 points per game.  As you can see, this has clearly been a one-sided series in recent years.

Bowling Green is 10-2 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last three seasons. The Falcons are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 road games off an upset loss as a favorite. Bowling Green is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a double-digit home loss. The Falcons are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games overall. The Zips are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games.  Bet Bowling Green Tuesday.

15* Utah State/Hawaii Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Hawaii +3

The Utah State Aggies have no business being favored on the road at Hawaii, which has historically been a much better home team than a road team for obvious reasons.  I'll take the points with the Warriors in this one in a game they'll likely win outright.

Utah State is living too much off reputation as being one of the better non-Power 5 conference teams in the country over the last few seasons.  That certainly isn't the case in 2014.  Sure, they are 5-3 this season, but a closer look at their five victories shows that none of them have been impressive.

Utah State has beaten the likes of Idaho State, Wake Forest, BYU, Air Force and UNLV this season.  Sure, the win over BYU stands out, but that was the same game that star quarterback Taysom Hill broke his leg midway through the contest.  The Cougars never recovered and were deflated for the rest of the game, and the Aggies took advantage.

Speaking of quarterback injuries, the Aggies have the worst situation in the country in that department.  They lost Chuckie Keeton to a season-ending injury.  Backup Darrell Garretson played well in his place before going down as well.  If that wasn't enough, third-stringer Craig Harrison i snow out with a knee injury.

That leaves fourth-string quarterback Kent Myers to take over the starting QB duties this week against Hawaii.  Myers is a freshman who was expected to redshirt this year, but now he'll be thrust into the action against Hawaii.  Make no mistake, teams down to their fourth-string QB usually aren't successful, just ask Maryland a few years back.

Hawaii may be just 2-6 this season, but I have seen signs that this team is better than that record would indicate.  It only lost to Washington (16-17) and Oregon State (30-38) at home by a combined nine points, a pair of Pac-12 opponents.  It beat Wyoming and Northern Iowa at home, while also taking a 10-0 lead against Nevada last week before eventually losing 18-26 at home.  All six of its losses have come by 14 points or fewer, and five by 10 points or less, so it's not like it has been really blown out in any game.

The Warriors are 51-28 at home compared to 20-38 on the road over the past 10-plus seasons.  The Aggies are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Hawaii is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS loss.  Bet Hawaii Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Nevada -3

The Nevada Wolf Pack (5-3) deserve a lot more credit than they are getting as only 3-point home favorites over the San Diego State Aztecs (4-3) in this game Saturday.  I look for them to win this one going away and to cover this generous spread with ease.

Nevada has beaten a Pac-12 opponent in Washington State by a final of 24-13 at home while losing to one of the better teams in the Pac-12 in Arizona by a final of 28-35 on the road as a 20-point underdog.  It has also gone on the road and beaten San Jose State (21-10), BYU (42-35) and Hawaii (26-18).

The Wolf Pack's other two losses came to very good teams as underdogs to both Boise State (46-51) and Colorado State (24-31) at home.  So, as you can see, all three of their losses have come by a touchdown or less against great opponents.  That's how close this is to being an 8-0 team.

San Diego State doesn't have an impressive win yet.  Its four victories have resulted in two home wins over Northern Arizona, UNLV and Hawaii, as well as a road win at New Mexico.  Its three losses have come against the best three teams it has faced in North Carolina, Oregon State and Fresno State all on the road.

The Aztecs have played a much easier schedule than the Wolf Pack up to this point.  They have gone 1-3 on the road this season where they are getting outscored 17.7 to 24.2 on average.  As stated before, their lone road win came at New Mexico, which is one of the worst teams in the Mountain West.

Cody Fajardo is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country, and he leads a Nevada offense that is putting up 29.9 points and 414.1 yards per game this season.  He is completing 62.6 percent of his passes for 1,814 yards with 11 touchdowns and seven interceptions on the year, while also rushing for 585 yards and 10 touchdowns while averaging 5.4 per rush.

Nevada wants revenge from a pair of close losses to San Diego State over the past two seasons.  It lost 44-51 on the road last season to the Aztecs in overtime despite gaining 564 total yards in the loss.  It also fell 38-39 at home in overtime to the Aztecs in 2012 despite outgaining them 480-349 for the game.  So, after back-to-back overtime losses, you can bet that the Wolf Pack have had this game circled on their calendars for quite some time.

The Wolf Pack are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a S.U. win.  Nevada is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.  The Wolf Pack are 5-2 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The Aztecs are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Roll with Nevada Saturday.

15* Auburn/Ole Miss SEC West No-Brainer on Ole Miss -1.5

The loss by Ole Miss last week to LSU is keeping this line lower than it should be. I believe the Rebels are the better team in this one, and their home-field advantage is worth more than what is factored into this line. Oddsmakers are actually saying that Auburn is the better team if they are only giving Ole Miss credit for three points for their home field. I’m not buying it.

I would argue that Ole Miss has the best defense in the entire country. After all, it is only giving up an average of 10.5 points per game on the season. What makes that so impressive is the brutal schedule that it has faced already having to take on the likes of Alabama, Texas A&M and LSU. It held all three of those teams to 20 or fewer points, and I look for it to do the same against Auburn en route to victory.

The Rebels have been dominant at home this season, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS while outscoring opponents by an average of 24.7 points per game. They have beaten four quality teams at home as well in Louisiana Lafayette (56-15), Memphis (24-3), Alabama (23-17) and Tennessee (34-3). If they can beat Alabama, they can certainly beat Auburn as I believe the Crimson Tide are a much better team than the Tigers.

Auburn has been one of the most overrated teams in the country this year in my opinion. That has shown in recent weeks as it is just 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall. It only beat Kansas State 20-14 as a 7-point road favorite, it lost at Mississippi State 23-38 as a 3-point road favorite, and it barely beat South Carolina 42-35 at home last week as an 18-point favorite.

The Rebels certainly have a massive edge in this one defensively. The Tigers have been hemorrhaging points and yards over their last two games. Indeed, they have given up averages of 36.5 points and 502.0 yards per game during this stretch. They surrendered 38 points and 469 total yards to Mississippi State, and 35 points and 535 total yards to South Carolina, which had been struggling offensively prior to last week’s game.

Ole Miss certainly wants revenge on Auburn from its 22-30 road loss last year in a game that it should have won. It actually outgained the Tigers 464-375 for the game. Bo Wallace threw for 336 yards and two touchdowns in the loss, but his two interceptions proved to be costly. Nick Marshall went just 11 of 17 passing for 93 yards for the Tigers.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won six of the last seven meetings. The Rebels are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. Ole Miss is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home games when playing with six or fewer days of rest. Hugh Freeze is 24-10 ATS in all games as the coach of Ole Miss.  Roll with Ole Miss Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Kentucky +8

The Kentucky Wildcats are one of the most improved teams in the entire country this year.  I fully believe they'll go into Columbia and give the Missouri Tigers a run for their money and likely pull off the upset this weekend, though we'll take the points for some added insurance.

Kentucky (5-3) is so close to becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 2010 that it can taste it.  A victory at Missouri would accomplish that feat following a disastrous 2-10 campaign last year.  The Wildcats almost have to be looking at this game like a must-win because their remaining schedule is difficult.  They play Georgia at home, followed by road games at Tennessee and Louisville.

Four of the Wildcats' five victories this season have come by double-digits.  They also beat South Carolina 45-38 at home in their best win of the year.  They have only been blown out once this season, which was at LSU in a game they just didn't show up.  They only lost at Florida by a final of 30-36 (OT).

Last week's performance against the No. 1 team in the country in Mississippi State shows that the Wildcats can play with anyone.  They were an onside kick away from getting the ball back and having a chance to score late to tie that game.  Instead, the Bulldogs returned the kick for a touchdown to put the game away in a 45-31 victory. 

The Wildcats managed 504 total yards against Mississippi State and have a legitimate offense this year.  They are putting up 31.6 points and 426.5 yards per game on the season.  Kentucky High School Player of the Year Patrick Towles is the future of this program.  He is completing 60.1 percent of his passes for 2,077 yards with 12 touchdowns and only four picks this season, while also rushing for 204 yards and four scores.

There's no question that the Wildcats have a massive edge in this one on offense.  The Tigers are only averaging 330.7 yards per game on the season to rank 117th in the country out of 128 FBS teams in total offense.  With that kind of suspect offense, the Tigers have no business laying more than a touchdown in this game.

Kentucky is also improved on the other side of the football.  While Missouri has a slight edge on defense in giving up 350.9 yards per game, the Wildcats aren't far behind.  They are allowing just 24.7 points and 377.6 yards per game on the season.  This stop unit is good enough to keep them in the game this weekend.

I believe Missouri is way overvalued this week due to its 42-13 win at Florida two weeks ago.  Sure, the final score looks impressive, but when you consider the Tigers only managed 119 yards of total offense and scored just one offensive touchdown, it really wasn't.  They can't rely on getting five non-offensive touchdowns every week like they did in that game.

That was a big reason why I faded Missouri last week as a 21.5-point home favorite against Vanderbilt, which is easily the worst team in the SEC by a wide margin.  The Commodores kept it close, losing by a final of 14-24 to the Tigers on the road.  Remember, Indiana upset Missouri 31-27 on the road earlier this season, and Georgia also beat Missouri 34-0 in Columbia a few weeks back.

Plays against home favorites (MISSOURI) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Purdue +23.5

I believe this number is too big Saturday. The Nebraska Cornhuskers are playing well and are one of the top 15 teams in the country, but I don’t believe the 23.5-point spread is warranted. I faded them last week with success and backed Rutgers in an 18-point loss as a 20-point underdog. I believe Purdue is every bit as good as Rutgers, especially with the way it has been playing of late.

The Boilermakers are in a good spot here as they’ll be returning from their bye week having two weeks to prepare for the Huskers. They nearly upset Minnesota on the road last time out, falling short by a final of 38-39 as 12-point underdogs. It was the third straight game where they played well. They beat Illinois 38-27 on the road as 10-point underdogs, and they only lost to Michigan State by 14 at home as 21.5-point dogs. They have actually covered five of their last six games against the spread, and they are still undervalued here.

This Purdue offense has really kicked it in gear of late. It has scored 31 or more points in four of its last five games overall. Austin Appleby has stepped up his play at the quarterback position. He is now completing 60.4 percent of his passes for 655 yards with six touchdowns and four picks on the year, performing much better than Danny Etling did before Appleby took over the job for good. Appleby has also rushed for 164 yards and four scores. Akeem Hunt (640 yards, 6.2/carry, 5 TD) and Raheem Mostert (466 yards, 6.1/carry, 3 TD) are two of the most underrated backs in the league.

Nebraska has a big game at Wisconsin on deck in its next game, and it certainly could be looking ahead to that contest. I just don’t believe that the Cornhuskers are as good as they get credit for as they have faced a very easy schedule up to this point. Sure, they only lost by five at Michigan State (22-27), but they were down 27-3 in that game. It was decided well before they came back with those 19 points in the fourth quarter of garbage time.

The Boilermakers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss. Purdue is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall. The Boilermakers are 5-1 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record. Purdue is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four road games.  Bet Purdue Saturday.

20* Florida/Georgia Rivalry GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida +11

This rivalry game is always played close to the vest. That’s why it doesn’t always matter what the team’s records are coming into it. The last four meetings have all been decided by 8 points or less. Georgia won 23-20 last year, 17-9 in 2012, and 23-20 in 2011, while Florida won 34-31 (OT) in 2010. The Gators will be out for revenge in this one after losing the last three by such small margins.

The betting public wants nothing to do with Florida after it lost to Missouri 13-42 in its last game. However, a closer look at the box score shows that there’s no way in hell the Gators should have lost that game by such a wide margin. They actually gave up just 119 total yards and one offensive touchdown to the Tigers. Missouri scored a ridiculous five non-offensive touchdowns in that game, which was a complete fluke.

Considering Florida nearly beat LSU the week before, I have no doubt that this is still a quality team despite its 3-3 record. The Gators lost to LSU 27-30, which is the same LSU team that just beat previously unbeaten Ole Miss last week. The Gators held the Tigers to just 305 total yards. They also held Missouri to the 119 yards and Tennessee to 233 yards in their last three contests.

The biggest reason Florida has a chance to keep this game close is its defense, which ranks 12th in the country in giving up just 312.8 yards per game on the season. Georgia has a solid stop unit as well, giving up 320.6 yards per game, but I have no doubt that Florida has the better overall defense in this one.

The edge does go to Georgia offensively, but it’s not like the Bulldogs are one of the top offenses in the country. They are averaging a pedestrian 437.1 yards per game to rank 49th in total offense. They have been impressive in their last two games without Todd Gurley, but they will really miss him in this game.  Also, Georgia is overvalued this week due to its five-game winning streak coming in.  It hasn't beaten a single great team during this stretch as its wins have come against Troy, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Missouri and Arkansas.

The Florida offense should be better with Treon Harris as the starter. Will Muschamp has decided to bench Jeff Driskel, who has been simply atrocious at the quarterback position up to this point.  Harris has completed 66.7 percent of his passes with three touchdowns and one pick in limited action. I believe this Florida defense will keep them in the ball game, while Harris will make enough plays to keep the Gators within this double-digit spread.

Florida is 34-17 ATS in its last 51 games following a two-game home stand. Georgia is 11-25 ATS in its last 36 games off a double-digit road win. The Gators are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit loss at home. Florida is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following a bye week. The Bulldogs are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 conference games. Georgia is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a bye week.  Take Florida Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on North Carolina +15

This feels a lot like last year when North Carolina opened 1-5 and went 6-1 down the stretch.  After starting 2-4, the Tar Heels have won their last two games with a home win over Georgia Tech as a narrow favorite and an upset win at Virginia.  Their only loss in their last three games came at Notre Dame by a final of 43-50 as a 16.5-point underdog, which I would consider a very good loss.

This North Carolina offense will keep it in every game from here forward.  It is averaging 37.4 points and 442.5 yards per game on the season.  Marquise Williams is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country.  He is completing 63.3 percent of his passes for 2,035 yards with 17 touchdowns and seven interceptions, while also leading the team in rushing (497 yards, 5 TD).

Miami doesn't have a win over a really great opponents yet.  It has beaten the likes of Florida A&M, Arkansas State, Duke, Cincinnati and Virginia Tech.  It has lost to the three best opponents it has faced in Louisville (13-31), Nebraska (31-41) and Georgia Tech (17-28) all by double-digits.  Asking the Hurricanes to win by more than two touchdowns to cover against the Tar Heels is simply asking too much.

The underdog has gone 8-1-1 ATS in the the last 10 meetings in this series while pulling off five outright upsets in the process.  The last three meetings have all been decided by 6 points or less, and six of the last seven meetings have been decided by 9 points or fewer.  The road team has won each of the last three meetings.

UNC is 9-2 ATS off a conference game over the last two seasons.  The Tar Heels are 6-0 ATS off two straight conference games over the last two years.  North Carolina is 8-1 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  Miami is 2-9 ATS off a conference game over the last two seasons.  The Tar Heels are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a ATS win.  The Hurricanes are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Bet North Carolina Saturday.

20* American Athletic GAME OF THE WEEK on Tulsa +24.5

I realize that the Tulsa Golden Hurricane have lost six straight games coming into this contest. However, that streak has made them way undervalued heading into this game against a much-improved Memphis squad. I certainly like their chances of staying within 24 points of the Tigers in this battle between former Conference USA rivals.

I’ve seen enough from Tulsa even in some losses to know that its is more than capable of keeping this game within 24 points. It only lost to Texas State 34-37 as a 3-point favorite, it lost to Tempe on the road 24-35 as a 17-point underdog, and it lost to South Florida 30-38 at home as a 2-point dog. I know Memphis is better than all three of those teams, but asking it to win by 25-plus points to cover is asking too much.

The one thing that gives Tulsa a chance to keep this game close is its offense, which is putting up a very impressive 433.3 yards per game this season, which is only slightly behind Memphis (451.1 YPG). In their last four games, the Golden Hurricane put up 434 yards against Texas State, 390 yards against Colorado State, 438 yards against Temple, and 488 yards against South Florida.

Tulsa quarterback Dane Evans has played pretty well this season. He is completing 56.3 percent of his passes for 1,941 yards with 12 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Zach Langer (436 yards, 4.2/carry) and James Flanders (330 yards, 4.5/carry) have provided steady play at running back. Keevan Lucas (64 receptions, 809 yards, 8 TD) is one of the most underrated receivers in the country.

Tulsa has had two full weeks to prepare for Memphis. The Golden Hurricane last played on October 18th, while the Tigers last played on October 25th. That extra week of preparation is going to be huge in this game, especially with the Tigers working on a short week already after having played on Saturday.

While I admit that the Tigers are one of the most improved teams in the country, they are finally getting too much respect this week.  They have covered the spread in five of their seven games this year, and the betting public has taken notice.  They have no business being a 24-point favorite against almost any FBS opponent outside of SMU.  They were 'only' a 23-point favorite against awful SMU last week, and they are getting too much respect this week after blowing them out.

Memphis is 4-16 ATS in its last 20 games after scoring 42 points or more in its previous game. The Tigers are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games following a double-digit road win. Memphis is 19-35 ATS in its last 54 games off a win against a conference opponent.  Bet Tulsa Friday.

15* Florida State/Louisville ACC No-Brainer on Florida State -3.5

This is a pretty generous line to back the No. 2 team in the country in the Florida State Seminoles. I know that they haven’t been nearly as dominant as last year, but they’ve also played a tougher schedule up to this point. I believe their few closes wins this season against good teams in Clemson and Notre Dame have kept this spread smaller than it should be.

Keep in mind that Clemson was playing with DeShaun Watson at quarterback while FSU was playing without Jameis Winston when it beat the Tigers in overtime earlier this year. Also, the 31-27 win over Notre Dame is nothing to laugh about as the Fighting Irish are one of the best teams in the country and currently ranked No. 6 in the AP Poll.

Louisville also lost a close one to Clemson by a final of 17-23. However, Watson went down with an injury early in that game, and the Cardinals couldn’t take advantage. Clemson is a much inferior offensive team with Cole Stoudt at quarterback rather than Watson. So, you can’t really even compare those games. The Cardinals haven’t really beaten a great team yet as their six wins have come against Miami, Murray State, FIU, Wake Forest, Syracuse and NC State.

Florida State is putting up 37.9 pints and 442.7 yards per game on the season. Jameis Winston is completing 70.6 percent of his passes for 1,878 yards with 13 touchdowns and six picks on the year. I don’t believe Louisville has the offensive firepower to keep up with the Seminoles in this one. It is averaging 30.9 points and 370.4 yards per game on the season, averaging a mere 5.0 yards per play. It hasn’t face very many good defenses, either, and the ones it did it lost to in Virginia and Clemson.

The Seminoles are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games after failing to cover the spread in four of their last five games coming in. Louisville is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 home games following three straight conference games. The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the last two years. The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take Florida State Thursday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Ohio State -13.5

Quietly, the Buckeyes have gone 5-1 against the spread this season. They continue to be a covering machine under Urban Meyer and are currently playing as well as almost anyone in the country. They need to keep packing on style points if they want to make the four-team playoff because the 21-35 home loss to Virginia Tech in Week 2 is hard for the playoff committee to forget.

The Buckeyes have been doing their best in trying to make everyone forget about that Virginia Tech game, though. They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with four straight wins by 22-plus points. They beat Kent State (66-0), Cincinnati (50-28) and Rutgers (56-17) at home, while also dominating Maryland (52-24) on the road.  They are outscoring opponents 56-17 during this stretch.

Ohio State’s offense is hitting on all cylinders. It has scored 50-plus in five straight games and is now averaging 46.5 points and 533.8 yards per game on the season. Meyer is proving that he is a quarterback genius once again. J.T. Barrett has put up Heisman-like numbers in recent weeks. He is now completing 65.2 percent of his passes for 1,615 yards with 20 touchdowns and five interceptions, while also rushing for 383 yards and four scores on the season.

Penn State played well en route to a 4-0 start against a very soft schedule, but it has been exposed in its last two games. It lost at home to Northwestern 6-29 back on September 27th and followed that up with a 13-18 road loss to Michigan. The Nittany Lions were held to just 266 yards against the Wildcats and 214 yards against the Wolverines. They simply do not have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Buckeyes in this one.

Ohio State is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Penn State. Last year, it stormed out to a 42-7 lead by halftime against the Nittany Lions and cruised to a 63-14 victory. The was the worst loss in Penn State history.  The Buckeyes outgained them 686-357 for the game. They held Christian Hackenberg to 12 of 23 passing for 112 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions in the win.

The Buckeyes are 53-25-2 ATS in their last 80 conference games. Ohio State is 35-15-1 ATS in its last 51 road games. The Buckeyes are 28-12-2 ATS in their last 42 vs. a team with a winning record. The Nittany Lions are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.  Bet Ohio State Saturday.

15* Alabama/Tennessee SEC No-Brainer on Alabama -17

The Crimson Tide finally lived up to their potential last week and took care of Texas A&M 59-0. I believe this will be a sign of things to come for them because the fact of the matter is that they have the most talented team in the country. Some of that talent is young, so it took a while for the Crimson Tide to gel. There may be no stopping this team the rest of the way, especially Saturday against an overmatched Tennessee squad.

The Volunteers have played their two worst games against the two best teams they have faced, and I don’t believe they have gone up against a team as strong as Alabama yet. They lost 10-34 at Oklahoma early in the season as 16-point underdogs. Then they were beat down by Ole Miss 3-34 last week as 15-point dogs. They only managed 191 total yards against the Rebels last week and committed four turnovers.

Tennessee clearly lacks the offensive firepower needed to keep up with a team like Alabama. It is only averaging 24.4 points and 325.1 yards per game on the season. Alabama is putting up 36.9 points and 510.7 yards per game, and as I’ve stated before, this may be the best offense they've had in school history.

Also, Tennessee quarterback Justin Worley suffered a shoulder injury late in the Ole Miss game last week and was forced to miss the rest of the game. If he can’t go, or if he’s limited at all, the Volunteers stand no chance of keeping this game close. They have a good defense, but that’s not going to be enough to make up for the lack of offense.

To say this had been a one-sided series in recent years would be a gross understatement. Alabama is 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Tennessee, outscoring the Vols by an average of 25 points per game in the process. Six of those victories have come by 20 points or more, and the last four have come by 31-plus. Alabama is 6-0 ATS in its last six visits to Knoxville.

Plays on a road team (ALABAMA) – after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games against opponent after a loss by 17 or more points are 48-17 (73.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Tennessee is 2-19 ATS in its last 21 home games versus excellent defensive teams that allow 285 or fewer yards per game. The Vols are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Alabama Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Vanderbilt +24

The Missouri Tigers come into this game against Vanderbilt way overvalued due to their 42-13 win at Florida last week.  Sure, the final score looks impressive, but a closer look at the box score shows that it should have been impossible for them to win by that much.  They only gained 119 yards of total offense and had one offensive touchdown.  They scored five touchdowns on defense and special teams, which is unheard of.

Simply put, Missouri cannot rely on defensive and special teams touchdowns, and they don't have the offense to put away Vanderbilt by 24-plus points this week.  Missouri ranks 118th in the country out of 128 teams in total offense this season, averaging just 323.7 yards per game.  The Tigers will be lucky to score 24 points in this one, let alone win by more than 24.

Vanderbilt opened the season with a pair of blowout losses to Temple and Ole Miss and has been undervalued since.  It has gone a profitable 3-2 ATS since.  The Commodores only lost by 14 to South Carolina as a 22.5-point underdog, 10 to Kentucky as a 17-point road underdog, and 27 to Georgia as a 33-point road dog.

That's the same Georgia team that beat Missouri on the road 34-0 a couple weeks back.  Also, South Carolina should have beat Missouri, but gave up a 20-7 lead in the fourth quarter to lose 20-21.  Indiana also went into Missouri and came away with a 31-27 victory.  This Missouri team simply is not that good, yet it is getting treated like one of the better teams in the country with this 24-point spread.  The Tigers are actually getting outgained by 43.7 yards per game on the season.

Vanderbilt is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games off a no-cover where it won as a favorite.  The Commodores are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 games following a win by 6 points or less.  Vanderbilt is 9-1 ATS in road games after the first month of the seaosn over the last three seasons.  The Commodores are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a S.U. win.  Vanderbilt is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games.  The Commodores are 6-1 ATS in their last seven conference games.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* Michigan/Michigan State Rivalry Play on Michigan +17

Let's just start out by saying that this is the most Michigan State has ever been favored in this history of this series.  This is a lot of points for the Spartans to be laying in a rivalry game. I know that they are one of the best teams in the Big Ten, but anything can happen in these rivalry games.

This line is a bit inflated due to Michigan State’s blowout win over Indiana last week. The Spartans actually trailed in the second quarter before scoring on six straight possessions to win 56-17.  However, they had an easy path to victory due to a soft Indiana defense, but also an Indiana offense that was missing starting quarterback Nate Sudfeld.

I like Michigan’s mental and physical state coming into this game. This is a chance for the Wolverines to turn their season around with an upset win, and motivation will not be a factor against their rivals in this one. Also, the Wolverines have two full weeks to prepare for Michigan State, which is a huge advantage. They should be in a good frame of mind after showing a lot of guts last time out in beating Penn State 18-13.

This Michigan team is not as bad as its 3-4 record would indicate. It has actually outgained five of its seven opponents on the season, which is more of a sign of a 5-2 team rather than one that is 3-4. The Wolverines are giving up just 21.4 points and 301.0 yards per game to rank 10th in the country in total defense. Their stop unit is good enough to keep this Michigan State offense in check, which should help it cover the 17-point spread.

While Michigan State also has one of the top defenses in the country, surrendering 292.7 yards per game, this stop unit has looked vulnerable at times. The Spartans allowed 46 points to Oregon and 31 to Purdue. They are giving up 21.6 points per game this season against a relatively soft schedule. Michigan has played a much more difficult slate of games, which makes its defensive numbers that much more impressive.

After winning five of the last six meetings in this series, I could easily see Michigan State overlooking Michigan and looking ahead to its next game against Ohio State.  I actually believe this game means more to the Wolverines, and quarterback Devin Gardner hasn't been shy about it.  "We're not thinking about ruining their season," Gardner said. "This is about us. I want to win this game as bad as I've wanted to win any game."

Even Michigan State quarterback Connor Cook believes this is going to be a close game, because it normally is no matter the circumstances.  "We could be 0-5 going into the game, they could be No. 1 in the country and it's going to be a tight game. You have that with rivalry games," said Cook. "I don't think we overlook them at all, and I don't think they overlook us."

Brady Hoke is 15-2 ATS in road games after gaining 100 or fewer rushing yards in the last game in all games he has coached. The Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games. The Spartans are 8-24 ATS in their last 32 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Michigan State had been undervalued in this head-to-head rivalry over the past seven seasons. Now, those roles are reversed and Michigan isn’t getting the respect it deserves as a 17-point underdog heading into the 2014 meeting.  Roll with Michigan Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas Tech +22.5

TCU has been the most underrated team in the country up to this point. Sharp bettors have been backing them relentlessly as their lines every week move in their direction. Oddsmakers haven’t been able to catch up to how good this team has been up to this point, which is why the Horned Frogs are a perfect 6-0 against the spread.

While I’ll admit that TCU is one of the best teams in the land, the odds have finally caught up to them this week. They opened as 21-point favorites and have been bet up to 22.5 in most places as the public is all over them after realizing that they have covered every spread thus far. They are simply laying too many points here to Texas Tech, and the value is clearly with the road underdog in this one.

The two blowout losses that the Red Raiders have suffered this season have come against run-heavy teams in Arkansas (28-49) and Kansas State (13-45). They have held their own against the rest of their opponents. They only lost 35-45 to Oklahoma State as 14.5-point road underdogs. They blew a big lead and let West Virginia escape with a 37-34 road win as the Red Raiders were 5.5-point underdogs in that contest.

Texas Tech has the kind of offense that will put up points on TCU and keep it within the number. It is averaging 30.9 points and 488.3 yards per game this season. Davis Webb is having another monster season, completing 62.2 percent of his passes for 2,239 yards with 22 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.

TCU hasn’t faced many elite offenses this season aside from Oklahoma and Baylor. Oklahoma put up 33 points and 461 total yards against TCU, including 309 passing. Baylor put up 61 points and 782 total yards against the Horned Frogs, including 510 through the air. Webb should be primed for a big day in this one.

The last three meetings between TCU and Texas Tech have all been decided by 10 points or less. Texas Tech is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with TCU. The Red Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. The Horned Frogs are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.  Take Texas Tech Saturday.

20* Conference USA GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida Atlantic +28

The betting public is all over Marshall right now due to its 7-0 start and 5-1-1 ATS mark this season.  It has covered the spread in five straight games coming in.  As a result, oddsmakers have been forced to set this line 7-10 points higher than it should be to try and draw even action on both sides knowing that the public is going to be all over Marshall again this week.  I'll take advantage and back the road dog in this one.

Florida Atlantic is a quality team that is fully capable of keeping this game within four touchdowns.  In fact, I believe this one will go right down to the wire.  The Owls suffered blowout losses to both Nebraska and Alabama on the road to open the season, but have been much more competitive since.  They have beaten the likes of Tulsa, UTSA and Western Kentucky, and they only lost by one at Wyoming.

Sure, there is one result that is going to stick in the minds of some people and question Florida Atlantic's talent.  They went on the road and lost 10-38 at Florida International a few weeks back despite being a 6.5-point favorite.  However, a closer look at the box score shows that the Owls actually outgained the Panthers 383-345 for the game.  That yardage differential wouldn't normally lead to a 28-point loss, but the Owls committed four turnovers.  I believe that effort was more of an aberration than anything.

Last year, Florida Atlantic lost 23-24 at home to Marshall as a 10-point underdog in a game it should have won.  It actually outgained the Thundering Herd 400-355 for the game.  The Owls held star quarterback Rakeem Cato to just 18 of 34 passing for 216 yards with a touchdown and an interception in the loss.  They want revenge from that one-point defeat, and I just cannot foresee them getting blown out by four-plus touchdowns in the rematch a year later.

Florida Atlantic is a sensational 22-7 ATS in its last 29 games overall.  The Owls are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games.  Florida Atlantic is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games as an underdog.  The Owls are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games coming in.  Roll with Florida Atlantic Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on San Jose State +9

I have been very impressed with how well San Jose State has played in its last three games following blowout road losses to both Auburn and Minnesota, who each have just one loss on the season.  I believe the Spartans are fully capable of staying within single-digits of Navy, and they will have a great chance of pulling off the upset Saturday as well.

Sure, they did lose 10-21 to Nevada at home, but a closer look at the box score shows that they dominated that game and should have won.  They outgained the Wolf Pack 446-256 for the game, or by 190 total yards.  They went on to outgain UNLV 542-221 in a 33-10 home win and to outgain Wyoming 471-277 in a 27-20 (OT) road win.

In these three games, they have averaged 486.3 yards per game and have given up 251.3 yards per game, outgaining their opponents by an average of 235 yards per game.  If that's not domination, I don't know what is.  So, they are playing their best football of the season heading into the Navy game and should be getting more respect from oddsmakers.

Navy is just 3-4 on the season and clearly down this year.  It has lost to Ohio State by 17, Rutgers by 7, Western Kentucky by 9 and Air Force by 9.  Its three wins have come against Temple by 7, Texas State by 14 and VMI by 37.  Really, the only Navy blowout this season came against VMI, which was expected because the Midshipmen were 38-point favorites.  The Midshipmen only outgained Texas State by 27 total yards and shouldn't have won by 14.

This will be the fourth meeting between these teams over the last four years.  The first three have all been close with SJSU winning 27-24 at home in 2011, SJSU winning 12-0 on the road in 2012, and Navy winning 58-52 (OT) in 2013.  The Spartans have really dominated the box score in all three games, outgaining the Midshipmen by 121 total yards in 2011, 244 total yards in 2012, and 122 total yards in 2013.  Expect SJSU to hold its own in the box score again in this one and for the game to go right down to the wire.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN JOSE ST) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, an average offensive team (21-28 PPG) against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG) are 59-22 (72.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. 

Navy is 1-8 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or better over the last three seasons.  SJSU is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games following a win.  The Spartans are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a losing record.  SJSU is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 road games overall.  Navy is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games.  Roll with San Jose State Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on North Carolina +7

North Carolina finds itself in pretty much the exact same position as last season.  Last year, it bounced back from a four-game losing streak to win six of its final seven games capped by a bowl victory.  The Tar Heels just snapped a four-game slide by rallying past Georgia Tech 48-43 last week.

Perhaps the real turning point came a week earlier when the Tar Heels went into Notre Dame and gave the previously unbeaten Fighting Irish all they wanted and more.  They only lost that game 43-50 as 16.5-point underdogs.  We all saw that Notre Dame probably should have beat defending champion Florida State on the road last week, so that 7-point loss to the Irish was nothing to laugh about.

Obviously the Tar Heels have a terrible defense and are being asked to put up big numbers offensively to stay in games, which is a concern.  The thing is that they are fully capable of winning shootouts, which they showed last week against Georgia Tech.  They are averaging 38.7 points and 452.3 yards per game on the season.  Marquise Williams is completing 64.5 percent of his passes for 1,776 yards with 15 touchdowns and six interceptions, while also pacing the team with 448 rushing yards and four scores.

Virginia is a team that I had pegged as underrated coming into the year, and that has proven to be the case.  The Cavaliers have opened 4-3 and will push for a bowl game this year.  However, their four wins have come against the likes of Richmond, Louisville, Kent State and Pittsburgh all at home.  Plus, those two wins over Louisville and Pittsburgh came by a combined 7 points.

I believe the Cavaliers are now overvalued heading into this game, and asking them to win by more than a touchdown over the Tar Heels to beat us is asking too much.  They don't exactly have the most explosive offense.  If you take out the Richmond and Kent State wins, they have only topped 24 points one time in their other five games.

This has been a one-sided series in recent years.  North Carolina is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Virginia with wins by 31, 24, 11 and 34 points, respectively.  The Tar Heels are outscoring the Cavaliers by an average of 25 points per game in the last four meetings.  The beat the Cavaliers 45-14 at home last year as 11.5-point favorites.

Virginia is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games vs. good passing teams that average 250 or more passing yards per game.  The Cavaliers are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games vs. incredible offensive teams that average 37 or more points per game.  Virginia is 0-6 ATS in its last six games as a home favorite of 7 points or less.  The Cavaliers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 after having covered the spread in five or six of their last seven games coming in.  Again, the Tar Heels are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  These five trends combine for a 31-1 system backing UNC.  Take North Carolina Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Rutgers +20

This is a very big number that the books are asking the Cornhuskers to cover. While I’m not going to say Rutgers is one of the best teams in the Big Ten, I certainly believe they are better than they get credit for. They have shown that by going 5-2 already this season despite having their win total set at roughly 3.5 games coming into the year. This team is no joke, but they are getting treated like it with this line.

The reason this line is so big is because Nebraska blew out Northwestern by 21 points on the road last week, while Ohio State blew out Rutgers by 39 points at home. Those results have created some serious line value here on the Scarlet Knights. Northwestern actually held a 17-14 lead at halftime over Nebraska before laying down after intermission. Ohio State is rolling everyone right now, so that 39-point win isn’t that much of a surprise.

Rutgers had been 5-1 prior to the Ohio State game with its only loss coming to Penn State by a field goal. It had beaten the likes of Washington State, Navy and Michigan. What I like about this Rutgers team is that it has a very good defensive line that won’t be overmatched by Nebraska’s offensive line. The Huskers have taken advantage of a schedule that has featured several overmatched defensive lines outside of Michigan State. That’s why Ameer Abdullah is having such a big season to this point.

Rutgers has a better offense than it is getting credit for. It is putting up 27.7 points and 415.0 yards per game against opponents that are only giving up 26.6 points and 368 yards per game. Quarterback Gary Nova is completing 61.8 percent of his passes for 1,793 yards with 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions, while also rushing for three scores on the ground.

After covering five straight games coming in, the Huskers are simply overvalued here. The Scarlet Knights are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Rutgers is 16-5 ATS-1 ATS in its last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Cornhuskers are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  Take Rutgers Saturday.

20* BYU/Boise State Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Boise State -7

I have been very impressed with the Boise State Broncos (5-2) in their first season under Bryan Harsin. One of their two losses this season came against Ole Miss, which is a national title contender. That was a 7-6 game entering the fourth quarter as the Broncos proved they could play with one of the best teams in the country.

Sure, they lost 14-28 to Air Force, but the Falcons are improved this season. Also, there’s no way the Broncos should have lost that game because they outgained them by 132 yards for the game.  They also committed a ridiculous seven turnovers to give the game away.

Statistically, Boise State is one of the most dominant teams in the country. It has only been outgained in one game this season, and that was by just 59 yards against Ole Miss. It has outgained its other six opponents. It has outgained five of those teams by 108 yards or more. On the season, it is outgaining the opposition by an average of 119.1 yards per game.

Boise State is averaging 485.0 yards per game of offense against teams that are giving up 402 yards per game on defense. The Broncos are limiting teams to 365.9 yards per game against opponents that are averaging 405 yards per game of total offense. To compare, BYU is giving up 388 yards per game against opponents that are only averaging 355 yards per game on offense.

Since losing star quarterback Taysom Hill midway through the Utah State game on October 3rd, the Cougars haven’t been the same team. They went on to lose to Utah State 20-35 at home, to UCF 24-31 on the road, and to Nevada 35-42 at home. I would certainly argue that Boise State is better than all three of those teams, which is why it should have no problem winning this game by more than a touchdown to cover the spread Friday night.

Hill was the one player that BYU could not replace. He made them an outside contender for the four-team playoff in all honesty as they had a great shot to run the table with him at the helm. Backup Christian Stewart is only completing 55.0 percent of his passes compared to Hill’s 67.2 percent. Stewart only has 110 rushing yards while averaging 3.1 per carry, compared to Hill’s 463 rushing yards and 5.4 per carry.

As losses in each of their last three games have shown, the Cougars are only an average team without Hill running the show.  While the offense clearly hasn't been as good without Hill, the BYU defense may be just as big of a concern.  The Cougars have allowed 31 or more points in four straight games.  It's not like they have faced elite offenses, either.  

I wouldn't consider Virginia, Utah State, UCF or Nevada elite.  However, I would consider Boise State's offense elite as it has scored 34 or more points on five different occasions this year.  Another thing to consider here is that BYU has turned the ball over two or more times in all but one game this season.  They are very careless with the football with 16 turnovers this season, which is another reason this game could get out of hand in a hurry.

Boise State is 51-27 ATS in its last 78 vs. mistake-prone teams that average 60 or more penalty yards per game. BYU is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games after playing its last game at home. Boise State is 27-9 ATS in its last 36 games after failing to cover the spread in two of its last three games coming in. The Broncos are 15-2 ATS in their last 17 games after gaining 450 or more total yards in four consecutive games. The Cougars are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  Bet Boise State Friday.

25* ESPN Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia Tech +3

Rarely ever will you get the opportunity to back Virginia Tech as an underdog in Blacksburg. Frank Beamer has gone 133-37 at home in his 28 seasons with the program. Lane Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the country, giving the Hokies one of the best home-field advantages in the nation. I don’t believe that home stadium is getting enough credit here with the Hokies listed as the underdogs.

Virginia Tech is a much better team than its 4-3 record would indicate. All three of its losses this year have come by a touchdown or less, while all four of its wins have come by 14 points or more. That includes perhaps the most impressive win of the season in all of college football. The Hokies went into Ohio State and came away with a 35-21 victory as 10-point underdogs back on September 6th.

Miami is every bit as bad as its 4-3 record would indicate. It is 4-0 at home and 0-3 on the road this season, losing all three road games by double-digits to Louisville (13-31), Nebraska (31-41) and Georgia Tech (17-28). The Hurricanes have no business being the favorite in this contest when you look at their home/away discrepancy. Al Golden is just 18-33 on the road as a head coach, including 8-11 at Miami.

Brad Kaaya is the future of Miami at quarterback.  He is a very talented player, but has done most of his damage at home this year.  Kaaya has thrown 11 touchdowns against three interceptions at home, compared to five TDs and six picks on the road.  Also, wide receiver Phillip Dorsett has scored all six of his touchdowns at home.

Virginia Tech has dominated this series with Miami in recent years, going 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings. It has won eight of the last 11 meetings, including three straight at home by an average of 19 points. Last year, the Hokies won 42-24 at Miami as 4.5-point underdogs. They dominated that game from start to finish, outgaining the Hurricanes 550-352 for the game. I look for this VA Tech defense to shut them down again.

The Hokies have one of the best stop units in the country. They are allowing just 20.0 points and 326.0 yards per game to rank 20th in total defense. What is most impressive about that is the fact that the Hokies’ seven opponents played so far are averaging 33.1 points and 435 yards per game on offense, so they are holding them 13.1 points and 109 yards per game below their season averages.

Virginia Tech is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a home underdog. Miami is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 conference games. The Hurricanes are 2-7 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a winning record. Miami is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games. Virginia Tech is 20-9 ATS in its last 29 Thursday games.  Bet Virginia Tech Thursday.

15* UConn/East Carolina ESPNU Thursday No-Brainer on Connecticut +28

East Carolina is clearly overvalued right now after its impressive start to the season. It has beaten the likes of Virginia Tech and North Carolina, while only losing to South Carolina by 10. It covered the spread in each of its first four games, and that was the point it started to become overvalued.

The Pirates failed to cover the spread the following week as 38-point favorites in a 21-point home win over SMU. As you probably know, SMU may be the worst team in the entire country. Then, last time out, they only won by 11 at South Florida as 16.5-point favorites. Now the books are asking the Pirates to win by four-plus touchdowns over the Huskies to beat us, and that’s simply asking too much.

Connecticut has played some very good teams, and it has yet to lose a game by four-plus touchdowns. It lost by 25 to BYU in the opener back when the Cougars had Taysom Hill and were rolling everyone. It also only lost to Boise State by 17 in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate. The Huskies were only outgained by the Broncos 290-292 for the game.

In fact, the Huskies have only been outgained by more than 85 yards in two of their six games this season.  They have not been outgained by more than 158 yards in any game, and that effort came in the 25-point loss to BYU in the opener.  To win this game by more than four touchdowns, the Pirates are likely going to have to outgain the Huskies by 200-plus yards, and I just don't see that happening.

What gives the Huskies a chance to keep this game close is a defense that has played very well this season. Indeed, the Huskies rank 17th in the country in total defense, giving up just 325.0 yards per game. That’s very impressive when you consider their six opponents thus far average 379 yards per game offensively, so they are holding them 54 yards per game below their season average.

East Carolina, meanwhile, has not been that great defensively. It is giving up 23.8 points and 363.8 yards per game against opponents that only average 22.9 points and 338 yards per game on offense this season. Admittedly, the Huskies have a poor offense this year, but they should be able to muster up enough points to stay within this 28-point spread. I also wouldn’t be surprised if ECU fails to top 28 points in this one, which is something they have failed to do in three of six games this year.

Connecticut is 25-11 ATS in its last 36 after having lost four or five of its last six games coming in. The Huskies are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring 9 points or fewer in their last game. Connecticut is 5-1 ATS in its last six Thursday games. East Carolina is 7-16 ATS in its last 23 games following a win. The Pirates are 1-4 ATS in their last five Thursday games. ECU is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a bye week.  Take Connecticut Thursday.

20* Arkansas State/UL-Lafayette No-Doubt Rout on Louisiana-Lafayette +3

The Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin’ Cajuns (3-3) played a gauntlet of a schedule in the early going and did not look good. Their blowout road losses to both Ole Miss and Boise State were not fun to watch for fans of this program. However, they have responded with two straight victories since. After a lackluster performance in a 34-31 win over Georgia State, they put together their most complete performance of the season last week.

Lafayette rolled to a 34-10 road win at Texas State to improve to 2-0 within the conference. It racked up 528 total yards of offense while limiting Texas State to just 270 total yards. Terrance Broadway, who is probably the best player in the conference, threw for 225 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for 113 yards in the win.

I simply believe that tough early-season schedule will have Lafayette battle-tested hitting on all cylinders in the Sun Belt. They were the favorites to win this conference coming into the season, and I see no reason why that should change now after their 2-0 start. It’s very surprising to see them as home underdogs here to Arkansas State, which is a solid team, but lacks the talent that Lafayette has to offer.

Last year, Lafayette rolled to a 23-7 win at Arkansas State in a game that was an even bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Rajin’ Cajuns racked up 470 yards of offense while limiting the Red Wolves to just 168, outgaining them by a ridiculous 302 total yards. Broadway threw for 205 yards, while the team rushed for 265 yards in the win. That helped the Rajin’ Cajuns control the ball for over 42 minutes.

That result last year is important because of the players these two teams have coming back.  Lafayette returned 17 starters this season, while Arkansas State brought back just 12 starters.  These teams tied for the Sun Belt Title last year, but there's no question that the Rajin' Cajuns are the better team in 2014 with what they returned.  They are undervalued right now due to the slow start to the year outside of the conference.

Arkansas State is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 versus good rushing teams that average 4.75 or more yards per carry. The Red Wolves are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 games after gaining 300 or more rushing yards in their previous game. Arkansas State is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in its previous game. The Rajin’ Cajuns are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 vs. a team with a winning record.  Lafayette has won 8 of its last 9 home meetings with Arkansas State.  Bet Louisiana-Lafayette Tuesday.

Note - I recommend buying Lafayette to +3 if you have the option but still would take them at +2.5.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Stanford -3.5

Stanford (4-2) is a couple of 3-point losses to both USC and Notre Dame away from being undefeated on the season. Because this is just a 4-2 team right now, I believe it is undervalued at this point in the season. It should be a much heavier favorite on the road against Arizona State this week. Defense wins games, and there’s no question that the Cardinal have the superior stop unit in this one.

The Cardinal are limiting opponents to just 10.0 points and 238.0 yards per game to rank 2nd in the country in total defense. They held a high-powered Washington State offense to just 266 yards of total offense last week. They held USC to 291 total yards and should have won that game. They also limited Washington to 179 total yards and Notre Dame to 370 yards.

The Sun Devils only brought two starters back on defense this year, and the inexperience has shown. They are giving up 31.4 points and 452.6 yards per game to rank 102nd in the country in total defense. They have given up over 200 yards rushing in four consecutive games. They were even outgained by Colorado on the road 426-545 for the game and should have lost, but found a way to win 38-24.

The fact of the matter is that Arizona State simply is not that good this season. It is getting respect because of its fluke win at USC in which it needed a late touchdown, an onside kick, and a hail mary on the final play of the game to win. The more telling result about how bad this team really is was the 27-62 home loss to UCLA a few weeks back. Look for Stanford to put a similar beat down on the Sun Devils, just as they have done in recent meetings.

Indeed, Stanford is 4-0 straight up and 3-0-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Arizona State. Last year, the Cardinal won 42-28 at home during the regular season in what was a 39-7 game entering the fourth quarter before the Sun Devils got some garbage points late to make the final score seem closer than it would appear. Then, in the Pac-12 Championship, the Cardinal rolled to a 38-14 victory while outgaining ASU 517-311 for the game.

Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (STANFORD) – off 3 or more consecutive unders, good team – outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Stanford is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 road games vs. good offensive teams that average 450 or more yards per game. The Cardinal are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 road games. Stanford is 25-11-1 ATS in its last 37 conference games. The Sun Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Roll with Stanford Saturday.

15* Notre Dame/Florida State ABC ANNIHILATOR on Notre Dame +10

The Florida State Seminoles (6-0) have been overvalued all season due to winning the national championship last year. That couldn’t be more evident when you look at how they have done against the spread. They only won by 6 over Oklahoma State as an 18.5-point favorite, by 25 over The Citadel as a 56.5-point favorite, by 6 over Clemson as a 10-point favorite, by 15 over NC State as a 16.5-point favorite, and by 18 over Syracuse as an 23.5-point favorite. Their only cover came against Wake Forest in a 40-point win as a 37-point favorite in a game that was closer than the final score would indicate.

Notre Dame (6-) has been very impressive this season outside of last week’s win over North Carolina, which was an obvious letdown and lookahead situation. The Irish were coming off a huge win over Stanford the previous week, and they were clearly looking ahead to this game against Florida State. So, I’m willing to throw out that performance because it wasn’t a good spot for them mentally. I really like what I’ve seen from this team in their wins over Stanford (17-14), Rice (48-17) and Michigan (31-0).

I also like the performance the Irish put up against Syracuse (31-15), which gives them a common opponent with the Seminoles, who beat the Orange 38-20. The Irish outgained the Orange 523-429 for the game, but the score was closer than it should have been because Notre Dame committed five turnovers. The Seminoles outgained the Orange 482-412 in their 18-point win. That effort shows that there is very little difference between these teams, and that the 10-point spread has been inflated.

Notre Dame has played the tougher schedule this season, which makes it even more impressive that it has nearly identical statistics to Florida State on the year. The Irish are averaging 34.5 points and 444.3 yards per game on the season, and giving up 17.2 points and 348.3 yards per game. They are outscoring opponents by 17.3 points per game and outgaining them by 96 yards per game. Florida State is outscoring opponents by 18.3 points per game and outgaining them by 104.2 yards per game.

Everett Golson is now 16-1 as a starter at Notre Dame.  The only loss was against Alabama in the 2012-13 BCS Championship Game.  I like his moxy and his ability to just get it done.  He served a suspension in 2013 and was able to work on his craft.  He has been a better player this year as a result.  He is completing 62.5 percent of his passes for 1,683 yards with 16 touchdowns and four interceptions, while also rushing for 209 yards and four scores in 2014.

Florida State, on the other hand, is dealing with the Jameis Winston situation.  He signed a bunch of autographs and the NCAA is looking into whether or not he was paid for them.  While Winston is expected to play this week, this is a huge distraction for the team and one that will work against them heading into this game against Notre Dame.  It takes some of the focus away from the game and there's no way that can be a good thing for the Seminoles, who are fortunate to still be undefeated this year.

The Irish are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games versus good offensive teams that average 450 or more yards per game. Notre Dame is 25-7 ATS in its last 32 October road games. Brian Kelly is 26-12 ATS as an underdog in all games he has coached. Kelly is 18-7 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 75% or better in all games he has coached. The Irish are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record. The Seminoles are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Northwestern +7

The Nebraska-Northwestern series has been one of the most exciting in all of college football since the Huskers joined the Big Ten in 2011. All three games have been decided by a total of seven points, with the Huskers winning two. Last year, the Huskers won 27-24 thanks to a hail mary on the final play of the game. You can bet the Wildcats have had this game circled and will be looking for revenge in 2014.

In 2012, Nebraska rallied from 12 down in the final period to match the biggest fourth-quarter comeback in school history for a 29-28 win in Evanston. In their first meeting in 2011, Northwestern went into Lincoln as a 17-point underdog and came away with a 28-25 victory. There is a good chance this one goes right down to the wire as well, meaning there is clearly value with the touchdown underdog here.

Northwestern (3-3) did not look good in the early going this season with home losses to both California and Northern Illinois. However, this has been a completely different team since. A 29-6 road win at Penn State followed by a 20-14 home win over Wisconsin proved that this team is for real. Then, last week, the Wildcats outplayed Minnesota on the road but lost 17-24. They outgained the Gophers 393-274 for the game and should have won.

Nebraska (5-1) could not have faced an easier schedule in its first five games of the season with four at home and just one on the road at Fresno State. We got a glimpse of how bad the Huskers are this year when they trailed Michigan State 27-3 entering the fourth quarter last time out. Sure, they only lost 22-27, but they got 19 garbage points in the fourth quarter to make the game appear closer than it really was.  Now they are getting too much respect because it looks like they played the Spartans close when they really did not.

This Wildcats defense is vastly improved from a year ago.  They are only giving up 17.5 points, 358.8 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play this season against teams that are averaging 26.6 points, 404 yards and 5.6 per play.  They limited Penn State to 266 total yards and Minnesota to 274 total yards.  They also held Wisconsin to 14 points, which is no small feat.

Northwestern is 43-26 ATS in its last 69 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Bo Pelini is 0-7 ATS after covering the spread in four or five of their last six games as the coach of Nebraska.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee +17

The Tennessee Volunteers (3-3) are extremely close to being 5-1 on the season. They have three blowout wins over Utah State, Arkansas State and Chattanooga. Their only blowout loss came at Oklahoma by a final of 10-34, but even that game was closer than the final score would indicate. Their 32-35 loss at Georgia and their 9-10 loss to Florida show that this team is vastly improved from last season and capable of beating any team in the SEC on their best day.

I really do believe the Volunteers have a chance to pull the upset here, let alone stay within 17 points. That’s because Ole Miss is in a very tough spot. It is getting all kinds of recognition nationally with a No. 3 ranking off wins over Alabama and Texas A&M. This is the definition of a trap game, because the Rebels have LSU and Auburn on deck over the next two weeks. I don’t expect them to come with their best effort against the Volunteers here.

They catch a Tennessee team that is desperate for a conference victory after losing its first two SEC games by a combined four points against quality competition. Butch Jones already has his players believing that they can beat anyone, and an upset like this would only affirm that belief. This is clearly Jones’ best team yet with the job he has been able to do in recruiting by going toe-for-toe with the big boys the last two years.

Sure, Ole Miss’ 35-20 win at Texas A&M last week appears impressive, but a closer look at the box score shows that it was very fortunate to come away with a win, let alone a 15-point triumph. Indeed, the Aggies actually outgained the Rebels 455-338 for the game, but they committed three turnovers to essentially give it away. Only amassing 338 yards against a poor Texas A&M defense is a very bad result for this Ole Miss offense.

The Volunteers have a real shot of limiting this Ole Miss offense, which will help them stay within the 17-point spread. They are only giving up 19.2 points and 316.3 yards per game on the season to rank 16th in the country in total defense. That is even more impressive when you consider the six opponents that they have faced are averaging 30.9 points and 391 yards per game on the year, so they are holding them to roughly 12 points and 75 yards below their season averages.

Tennessee is 13-1 in its last 14 meetings with Ole Miss dating back to 1984. Plays on a road team (TENNESSEE) – after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games are 186-109 (63.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Volunteers are 25-11 ATS in their last 36 October road games.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma State +10

I have been one of the biggest TCU (4-1) supporters coming into the season and early into the 2014 campaign. I predicted that they’d win the Big 12, and they have not disappointed up to this point. They beat Oklahoma and then had a 21-point lead against Baylor last week, only to give it up in the fourth quarter and lose by a final of 58-61. They covered in that contest to improve to a perfect 5-0 against the spread in their five games in 2014.

They were undervalued up until this point and I capitalized by backing them each of the last two weeks. However, I’m going the other way this week simply because this is a bad spot for TCU, and now it is finally getting the respect it deserves from oddsmakers. The Horned Frogs should not be favored by double-digits in this matchup against Oklahoma State (5-1).

The Frogs are in a huge hangover spot here from that loss to Baylor, and I look for them to come out very flat. It’s simply going to be too tough to get up emotionally for the Cowboys after playing two juggernauts like Oklahoma and Baylor in back-to-back weeks. They will struggle to win the game, let alone win by double-digits, which is what it would take for them to cover this lofty spread.

The Cowboys come in undervalued this week after only beating Kansas 27-20 on the road last week as an 18-point favorite. They haven’t been world beaters this season, but there’s no question the Cowboys are better than they were perceived to be coming into the year. Their only loss came to defending national champion Florida State by a final of 31-37 as 18.5-point underdogs. That effort alone showed that they are capable of playing with almost anyone in the country.

Oklahoma State has dominated TCU in its two meetings as Big 12 opponents. It won 36-14 at home in 2012 as a 7-point favorite while racking up 471 yards of total offense. It also won 24-10 at home last year as a 6-point favorite while putting up 415 yards of offense. The Cowboys won by 14 despite committing four turnovers because they held TCU to just 325 yards and forced four turnovers themselves.

The Cowboys have scored 20 or more points in 58 consecutive games dating back to the start of the 2010 season.  That's the longest active streak in the country and the second-longest in FBS history (USC, 2002-06).  It's also worth noting that TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin underwent surgery this week to repair a wrist injury.  Sure, he's probable to play, but a hurt wrist is not something you want your starting quarterback dealing with on the football field.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TCU) – off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 26-4 (86.7%) ATS since 1992. This trend just shows that it’s tough for even good teams to bounce back from a tough loss on the road. The Cowboys are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS loss. The Horned Frogs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Roll with Oklahoma State Saturday.

15* Baylor/WVU Big 12 No-Brainer on Baylor -7.5

I faded Baylor (6-0) with success last week in a rare ATS loss for the Bears. They beat TCU but failed to cover as 7-point favorites. Off that rare loss against the spread, I believe the Bears are now undervalued in this one as only 7.5-point favorites. This is a team that went 8-4 ATS in 2011, 9-4 ATS in 2012 and 9-4 ATS in 2013. They have opened with a 4-1-1 ATS mark in 2014 to continue crushing the spread on a regular basis.

TCU is a much better team than it gets credit for, so that win over the Horned Frogs was nothing to frown about. The Bears are still the best team in the Big 12, and I would say that TCU is the second-best team. Baylor just scores at will and cannot be stopped. Putting up 61 points on a very good TCU defense is no small accomplishment. The Bears arguably should have won by more because they outgained TCU 782-485 for the game.

This Baylor offense tops the country in scoring (52.7) and yards per game (622.5) this season. Even after a poor defensive performance last week, the Bears are only giving up 20.0 points and 303.5 yards per game. There’s no question they have a better defense than WVU, which is giving up 27.2 points and 393.0 yards per game. I look for the difference in this game to be the Bears getting a few more stops than the Mountaineers to pick up the win and cover.

I just haven’t been impressed with WVU over the last few weeks. They lost to Oklahoma 33-45 at home and gave up 508 total yards in defeat. They also needed a big comeback to beat a terrible Texas Tech team 37-34 while giving up 565 total yards. If that’s the kind of effort their defense is going to give against those two teams, you can just imagine what this Baylor offense is going to do against that WVU defense.

Last year, Baylor beat West Virginia 73-42 in a game that was an even bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Bears outgained the Mountaineers 875-399 for the game, more than doubling their yardage output. Bryce Petty left this game early because of the blowout after throwing for 347 yards and two touchdowns. The Bears rushed for a ridiculous 479 yards while averaging 8.0 per carry in the win.

Baylor is 8-0 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last three seasons. West Virginia is 0-8 ATS versus good rushing defenses that give up 120 or fewer rushing yards per game over the last three years. The Mountaineers are 0-6 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 4.5 or fewer yards per play over the last three seasons. West Virginia is 0-7 ATS after having won two of its last three games over the last three seasons. The Mountaineers are 0-6 ATS in their last six conference games.  These five trends combine for a perfect 35-0 system backing the Bears.  Take Baylor Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Purdue +14

The Purdue Boilermakers (3-4) have been one of the most improved teams in the Big Ten this season.  They have already tripled their win total from a year ago and have even been impressive in some of their losses.  Their most impressive performance was a 38-27 win at Illinois to pick up their first conference victory since 2012.

However, I was even impressed with how Purdue hung around against teams like Notre Dame, Iowa and Michigan State, all of which are better teams than Minnesota.  They only lost 14-30 to Notre Dame as 30-point underdogs, 10-24 to Iowa after blowing a 10-0 lead, and 31-45 to Michigan State last week as 21.5-point underdogs.  They even racked up 340 total yards against a very good Spartan defense.

Minnesota (5-1) is overvalued right now due to its record this season.  It has played a very soft schedule thus far, which is the biggest reason for the record.  The 7-30 road loss to TCU is the exception, and it was the most telling performance about this team. 

Sure, the Gophers won 30-14 at Michigan, but everyone is beating the Wolverines.  The Gophers also picked up a nice 24-17 win over Northwestern last week, but a closer look at the box score shows they should have lost that game.  They only gained 274 yards of total offense and gave up 393 yards, getting outgained by the Wildcats by 119 yards for the game.

I have really liked what I've seen from this Purdue offense of late.  It has actually scored 35-plus points in three of its last four games, including the 38 on Illinois and the 31 on Michigan State.  Akeem Hunt rushed for 96 yards and three touchdowns against the Spartans on only 12 carries.  Hunt is one of the more underrated backs in the country as he has 542 yards and five touchdowns this season while averaging 6.2 per carry.

This Minnesota offense simply isn't explosive enough to put away a team like Purdue.  The Gophers are only averaging 27.0 points and 331.8 yards per game this season to rank 116th out of 128 teams in the country in total offense.  That's really bad when you consider they have played a very suspect schedule to this point.

The Boilermakers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a S.U. loss.  Purdue is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The Boilermakers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Purdue is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games following a double-digit home loss.  The Boilermakers are 13-6 SU & 12-6-1 ATS in their last 19 meetings with Minnesota.  Take Purdue Saturday.

20* Temple/Houston AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Temple +8

The Temple Owls (4-1) are one of the most underrated teams in the entire country. They have already doubled their win total from a year ago with their only loss coming to a very good Navy team by a final of 24-31. Their two most impressive performances of the season came in their two road games.

They went on the road and beat Vanderbilt 37-7 despite being an 8.5-point underdog in that game. They also went to Connecticut and came away with a 36-10 win as a 6-point favorite. Sure, Vanderbilt and UConn are not great teams, but the way the Owls beat them down speaks volumes about what they are capable of.

The Owls have been impressive on both sides of the football. They are averaging 38.2 points per game and giving up just 14.4 points per game on the season. They have been a much more competitive team ever since P.J. Walker took over as starting quarterback over the final seven games last year. Walker is completing 61.8 percent of his passes for 1,099 yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions this year, while also rushing for 92 yards and three scores.

Sure, Houston beat Temple 22-13 on the road last year and probably should have won by more due to the yardage differential, but that was an early-season game. It was prior to Walker taking over as the starting quarterback. With Walker, the Owls are more than capable of going into Houston and coming away with a victory in this one.

The Cougars have not been impressive at all this season. They already have three losses on the year, including a 7-27 home loss to a UTSA team that is not that good in the opener. They are getting a lot of respect for their 28-24 win at Memphis last week, which has inflated this line up to 8 when it should be right around a field goal, providing some value with a road underdog Owls in this one.

While Temple has scored 35 or more points in four of its five games this season, Houston has been held to 28 or fewer points in four of its five games. It lacks the offensive firepower to put away Temple in this one. That’s especially the case considering how well the Owls have played defensively this year in giving up just 326.6 yards per game. The Cougars are only averaging 371.5 yards per game on offense against defenses that are giving up an average of 409 yards per game.

Temple is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite. The Owls are 9-2 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons, including a perfect 6-0 ATS as a road underdog. Temple is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games overall. Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.  Bet Temple Friday.

20* VA Tech/Pitt ACC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UNDER 45.5

The books have set the bar too high in this contest Thursday night between Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh.  These are two teams with very good defenses and limited offenses who will find points very hard to come by.

Virginia Tech’s defense is going to be able to stop Pittsburgh’s offense. The Hokies have been tremendous against the run in allowing just 109 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry against teams who average 191 yards per game and 4.9 per carry, holding them to 82 yards and 1.5 per carry below their season average.

Pittsburgh is a team that relies exclusively on the run. It averages 46 rushing attempts and 244 yards per game on the ground compared to 24 pass attempts and 161 yards per game through the air. Their one-dimensional offense is going to struggle to move the football in this one.

The Panthers have given up 25 or fewer points in all six games they have played.  They are allowing just 19.0 points and 277.5 yards per game to rank 4th in the country in total defense.  The Hokies have put up decent numbers offensively, but they've been up against six teams whose defenses average giving up 29.6 points and 415 yards per game.  They haven't faced a defense near the caliber of the one they will be up against Thursday.

Virginia Tech has played four elite offensive football teams this year, which makes their numbers defensively all the more impressive.  They combined with Ohio State for 56 points, East Carolina for 49 points, Georgia Tech for 51 points, and North Carolina for 51 points.  There's no question this game will stay below the 45.5-point total against a much worse offense and a much better defense in Pittsburgh.

In its last three games, Pittsburgh has combined with Iowa for 44 points, with Akron for 31 points, and with Virginia for 43 points as all three games have gone UNDER the total.  Look for this contest against the Hokies to take on a similar tone as they have a much better defense than those three teams, and only a slightly better offense.

Last year, Virginia Tech beat Pittsburgh 19-9 at home for 28 combined points when the game total was set at 43.  This was precisely the defensive battle that the score would indicate as well.  The Hokies held the Panthers to 11 first downs and 210 total yards.  Virginia Tech managed 17 first downs and just 315 total yards in the victory.

Pittsburgh is 34-18 to the UNDER in its last 52 games versus good rushing defenses that allow 120 or fewer rushing yards per game.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Hokies last seven games following a bye week.  The UNDER is 16-5 in Hokies last 21 Thursday games.  The UNDER is 24-9-1 in Hokies last 34 games following a win.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Panthers last seven games following a loss.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Panthers last five games following a bye week.  The UNDER is 7-2-1 in Panthers last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* UL-Lafayette/Texas State No-Doubt Rout on Texas State -2

I’ve been really impressed with the Texas State Bobcats (3-2) in 2014 in just their third season as an FBS member and their second in the Sun Belt Conference. This is a team that went 6-6 last year with five of their wins coming against FBS foes. They certainly have a shot at bowl eligibility this year and are a dark horse candidate to win the Sun Belt.

While the Bobcats’ three wins aren’t all that impressive aside from the 37-34 win at Tulsa as 3-point underdogs, their two losses say a lot about what kind of team this is. They only lost 21-35 at home to a very good Navy team while racking up 442 yards of total offense in the defeat. More promising yet was their 35-42 loss at Illinois as 11-point underdogs as they gained 475 yards in that game.

As you can see, Texas State has a very good offense, which shouldn’t come as much of a surprise considering it returned eight starters on this side of the ball from last year. It is putting up 38.6 points and 497.8 yards per game on the season. Tyler Jones is completing 68.4 percent of his passes for 1,149 yards with 12 touchdowns and four interceptions, while also rushing for 253 yards and four scores. Terrance Franks (408 yards, 7.8/carry, 6 TD) and Robert Lowe (402 yards, 5.9/carry, 2 TD) form a solid 1-2 punch in the backfield.

Many expected Louisiana to win the Sun Belt this year. That looks like a long shot now after what this team has shown so far. The Rajin’ Cajuns’ only wins this season have both come at home against Southern (45-6) as a 38.5-point favorite and Georgia State (34-31) as a 16.5-point favorite. That half-point cover against Southern was the only cover for them all season. They have lost to LA Tech (20-48) at home, and Ole Miss (15-56) and Boise State (9-34) on the road.

I realize that Louisiana crushed Texas State last year by a final of 48-24. However, that couldn’t have been a better spot for the Rajin’ Cajuns as they were coming off a bye week and had a bye week on deck. It’s clear that the Rajin’ Cajuns are way down this season compared to last year, while the Bobcats are vastly improved. The Bobcats should have no problem moving the football and putting up points on a Louisiana defense that is giving up 35.0 points and 458.0 yards per game on the season.

Plays against road underdogs (LA LAFAYETTE) – after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in two straight games against opponent after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half are 94-48 (66.2%) ATS since 1992. Louisiana is 0-7 ATS vs. poor passing defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or worse over the last two seasons. Lafayette is 1-9 ATS off a game where it forced one or less turnovers over the past two years. The Rajin’ Cajuns are 0-5 ATS in their last five conference games.  Bet Texas State Tuesday.

15* Penn State/Michigan ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Penn State +1

James Franklin has had a bye week to get his team ready for Michigan. It certainly could not have been a pleasant bye week for these Nittany Lions players as they made all kinds of mistakes in their 23-point loss to Northwestern last time out. However, I believe that performance was an aberration and not the typical effort you will see from this Penn State (4-1) team the rest of the way, especially this week.

The Nittany Lions had been very impressive prior to that game during their 4-0 start. They outgained UCF by 265 yards in their 26-24 win over in Ireland, outgained Akron by 148 yards in their 21-3 home victory, outgained Rutgers by 79 yards in their 13-10 road win, and outgained UMass by 198 yards in their 48-7 home victory. They turned the ball over twice against Northwestern, including one that was returned for a touchdown to blow the game open in the fourth quarter. This was a 14-6 game entering the final period.

It’s amazing that Brady Hoke has kept his job with the start the Wolverines are off to this season. They have gone just 2-4 with their only wins coming at home against the likes of Appalachian State and Miami Ohio. They were blown out on the road by Notre Dame 31-0, and they suffered lopsided defeats at the hands of both Utah (10-26) and Minnesota (14-30) at home.

Even their 24-26 loss at Rutgers last week was nowhere near as close as the final score would indicate. The Scarlet Knights actually outgained the Wolverines 476-336 for the game, or by 140 total yards. Michigan was also outgained by a whopping 202 total yards by Minnesota the week before as its offense only put up 171 yards in that 16-point loss. The Wolverines have been held to 336 or fewer yards in all four of their losses.

It’s going to be tough sledding for the Michigan offense again this week against perhaps the best defense they have seen yet. The Nittany Lions are only giving up 14.6 points and 288.8 yards per game this season to rank 9th in the country in total defense. Offensively, the Nittany Lions have the superior unit as they are averaging 407.8 yards per game, while the Wolverines are only averaging 354.0 yards per game.

Making matters worse for the Michigan offense is the fact that it is going to be without its leading rusher for the rest of the season.  Derrick Green (471 yards, 5.7/carry, 3 TD) broke his collarbone against Rutgers and is done for the year.  Also, second-leading rusher De'Veon Smith (282 yards, 6.0/carry, 4 TD) is dealing with an injury, though he is expected to give it a go against Penn State.  That puts even more pressure on Devin Gardner, who has already thrown seven interceptions in 120 attempts this season.

Penn State is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Michigan. The Nittany Lions are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit loss as a favorite of 6 or more points. Michigan is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after having lost four of its last five games coming in.  These three trends combine for a 19-0 system backing the Nittany Lions.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MICHIGAN) – with a turnover margin of -1.5 /game or worse on the season, after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 40-11 (78.4%) ATS since 1992. The Nittany Lions are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. loss.  Roll with Penn State Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Alabama -8.5

There’s no question that Nick Saban is steaming over the loss to Ole Miss. That will be reflected in practice this week in preparation for Arkansas. Look for him to rally the troops and have the Crimson Tide coming back motivated and determined this week as all of their goals are still within their grasp despite that loss. This team is simply too talented for the Razorbacks to hang with.

To say this has been a one-sided series in recent years would be a massive understatement. Alabama is 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in its last seven meetings with Arkansas with an average margin of victory of 28.3 points per game. Five of those wins have come by 24 or more points, and the last two have resulted in 52-0 blowouts in the Crimson Tide’s favor. While the Razorbacks are a better team this year, they aren’t good enough to stay within single-digits of Alabama.

The Crimson Tide have been dominant statistically this season. They average 37.0 points and 549.2 yards per game on offense, which makes this one of the most explosive units in the Saban era. While the defense is perceived to be down a notch, they are still allowing just 15.8 points and 264.8 yards per game and are only going to get better on this side of the ball as the season progresses.

Arkansas is an improved offensive team this season, but its defense leaves a lot to be desired. It is giving up 25.8 points and 403.2 yards per game this season. In the opener against Auburn, the Razorbacks were beaten 21-45 as they were outgained 328-595 for the game. Alabama is every bit as good as Auburn this season, so expect a one-sided affair in this one. The Razorbacks also gave up 523 total yards to Texas A&M last time out.

Alabama is only giving up 64 yards per game and 2.6 per carry on the ground this season, so the Razorbacks won’t be able to do a whole lot defensively because they rely on the run almost exclusively.  Indeed, the Razorbacks average 317 yards on the ground and only 168 through the air.  This is the type of game where being one-dimensional is going to really cost Arkansas.

Alabama is 35-19 ATS in its last 54 road games off one or more consecutive ATS losses. Bret Bielema is 2-14 ATS versus excellent defensive teams that allow 285 or less yards per game in all games he has coached.  Finally, the Crimson Tide have not lost back-to-back SEC games since Saban's first season in Tuscaloosa back in 2007.  Roll with Alabama Saturday.

15* Auburn/Mississippi State CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Mississippi State +3

The Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-0) have been arguably the most underrated team in the country up to this point. I believe they still aren’t getting the respect they deserve as a 3-point home underdog to the Auburn Tigers (5-0) in this one. It makes sense because they have been down for so long, but this isn’t the same Mississippi State team of year’s past. This is Dan Mullen’s best team yet with 16 starters back, and a legitimate contender to win the SEC West.

The last two wins by Mississippi State show that it is for real. It went into LSU and came away with a 34-29 victory as a 7-point underdog. That game wasn’t even as close as the final score would indicate as the Bulldogs led 34-10 in the fourth quarter before LSU got 19 garbage points in the final period. They dominated from start to finish last week, beating Texas A&M 48-31 at home as a 2.5-point favorite.

I stated last week that Dak Prescott is a guy you need to keep your eye on for the Heisman Trophy, and he had another big performance against the Aggies. He totaled five touchdowns in the win with two passing and three rushing. Prescott is completing 63.6 percent of his passes for 1,223 yards with 13 touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 455 yards and six scores on the season. He is a 235-pound quarterback in a running back’s body.

While I admit that Auburn has been better than I expected this season, it has done all of its damage at home. In its only road game this year, it won 20-14 at Kansas State as a 7-point favorite. It had no business winning that game as the Wildcats missed three field goals. They also had a touchdown pass dropped in the end zone that turned into an interception for the Tigers.

The home team has won three straight meetings in this series. Last year, Mississippi State only lost 20-24 at Auburn as a 6.5-point road underdog. That effort against the eventual SEC champs showed what the Bulldogs were capable of. Now, with a much better team in 2014 and getting the Tigers at home this time around, I look for the the Bulldogs to pull off the upset this week.

Sure, Mississippi State has been torched through the air this year, but that won't come into play this week against an Auburn team that throws the ball just 34% of the time and runs it 66% of the time.  That makes this a great match-up for the Bulldogs, who are only giving up 98 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry against opponents who average 178 yards per game and 4.4 per carry on the season.  Auburn's one-dimensional offense will cost them, while Mississippi State's balanced attack (274 rypg, 267 pypg) will be tough for the Tigers to stop.

One trend that just goes to show how undervalued the Bulldogs have been is the fact that they are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. They are 6-0 ATS in their last six conference games, and 7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record. They are also 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Tigers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  Take Mississippi State Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on TCU +8

If you’ve ready anything I’ve written about TCU (4-0) before, you’ll know that they were my pick to win the Big 12 coming into the season. I was on them last week against Oklahoma, and I am taking them this week against Baylor as well. This is arguably the best team that head coach Gary Patterson has had yet. They only went 4-8 last year but were much better than that, losing by a field goal to both Baylor and Oklahoma.

In that 38-41 home loss to Baylor last year, the Horned Frogs played the Bears as good as almost anyone. They actually outgained them 410-370 for the game, but committed three turnovers that cost them the victory. The defense limited Bryce Petty to just 19 of 38 passing for 206 yards with two touchdowns and one pick, which is no small feat. Their defense played as well against Baylor as anyone last year.

That stop unit has been a big reason for the 4-0 start this season. The Horned Frogs are only giving up 13.5 points and 279.2 yards per game this year. They actually ranked No. 1 in the Big 12 in total defense last season among conference games. This stop unit does not get enough credit, and it is fully capable of containing this high-powered Baylor offense again in 2014.

However, the biggest difference for TCU this year has been the improvement on offense. It went to a new no-huddle, spread offense, and it is getting rave reviews. The Frogs are averaging 42.7 points and 516.2 yards per game this season. They put up 37 points and 469 total yards against Oklahoma last week as Trevone Boykin threw for 318 yards and rushed for 77 more. Boykin has thrown for 1,176 yards with 10 touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 260 yards and three scores this year.

Baylor is a team I have backed in four of the five games it has played this year, so I have been big on the Bears as well. They have gone 4-0-1 against the spread in all games this season. However, the betting public is finally onto how good this team is, and they are finally overvalued this week as more than a touchdown favorite.

TCU is by far the best team that they have faced this year as the Bears have played an extremely soft schedule, so they aren’t battle-tested, which hurts them coming into this one.  Baylor has played the likes of SMU, Northwestern State, Buffalo, Iowa State and Texas.  TCU's win over Oklahoma gives it the confidence needed to go into Baylor and pull off the upset in this one.

The Horned Frogs have really dominated this series with the Bears.  They have gone 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with Baylor dating back to 2006.  Their two losses have come by a combined 5 points.  Back in 2012, the Horned Frogs went on the road and beat Baylor 49-21 as 6-point underdogs.  I look for this game to go right down to the wire and for TCU to likely win the game, but I'll take the points for some added insurance.

Baylor is 6-21 ATS in its last 27 vs. good pass defenses that allow 48% completions or less. The Bears are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 home games versus good defensive teams that give up 4.25 or fewer yards per play. The Horned Frogs are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. TCU is 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Baylor.  Bet TCU Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on North Carolina +17

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-0) are way overvalued this week off their win over Stanford last week. There are certain games where statistics can be thrown out the window, and this is one of them.  You look at the numbers and you see a great Notre Dame defense and a terrible UNC stop unit up to this point, but those are two things I'm willing to overlook because of this tough situation for the Fighting Irish.

That victory over the Cardinal sets them up for a letdown spot here. Couple that with the fact that they play No. 1 Florida State next week, and there’s almost no way they bring their best effort to the field against UNC. They will clearly be looking ahead to that game against the Seminoles and won’t have the kind of focus it takes to win by 17-plus points against the Tar Heels.

Without question, North Carolina has been way overvalued up to this point in the season. Many thought that it would win the ACC Coastal Division this season, but that is looking like a long shot now after three straight losses, including two to ACC foes.

However, those three losses all came to very good teams in East Carolina, Clemson and Virginia Tech. They at least hung around against both Clemson and VA Tech as last week’s 17-34 find score against the Hokies was nowhere near indicative of how close the game was.  I really liked what I saw out of this UNC defense last week as they limited the Hokies to 357 yards of total offense. It just shows that the defense can be better than it was through the first four games of the season.

After going 0-5 against the spread through their first five games, the betting public wants nothing to do with the Tar Heels. They are finally undervalued now after being overvalued up to this point. It’s time to jump back on the Tar Heels, who won six of their final seven games last season to come on strong in the second half after a slow start.  I can easily foresee the same thing happening in 2014 with the talent that is on this roster.

The Fighting Irish were in a similar letdown spot earlier this season.  They were coming off a 31-0 win over Michigan in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate as the Wolverines actually outgained them for the game.  They played Purdue next week, and I was all over the Boilermakers as 30-point underdogs.  The Fighting Irish only won that game by 16 points.  This is an even tougher spot for them because of the letdown/lookahead spot combined, and UNC is a better team than Purdue.

Notre Dame is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games off four or more consecutive unders. Plays on any team (N CAROLINA) – average offensive team (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) against a team with a good defense (4.2 to 4.8 YPP), after allowing 525 or more total yards/game over their last three games are 26-7 (78.8%) ATS since 1992. The Tar Heels are 28-12-1 ATS in their last 41 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. UNC is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games following a double-digit home loss.  Bet North Carolina Saturday.

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Georgia Tech -3

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-0) certainly were not that dominant in their first three non-conference games, but they got the job done. Their 42-38 win over Georgia Southern had many folks skeptical, but it has been proven since that Georgia Southern is no joke. With a 27-24 road win at Virginia Tech and a 28-17 home win over Miami to open ACC play, it’s also clear that the Yellow Jackets are a real contender to win the Coastal Division this season.

Duke is a team I had circled coming into the year as overvalued. It certainly was overvalued heading into ACC play due to four straight wins in the non-conference over lowly teams like Elon, Troy, Kansas and Tulane. That showed in a 10-22 road loss to Miami in its ACC opener in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Blue Devils were outgained by the Hurricanes 264-426 for the game and should have lost by more.

To say this has been a one-sided series would be a massive understatement. Georgia Tech is 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS in its last 10 meetings with Duke with an average victory of 21.2 points per game. It is 18-1 the last 19 meetings as well while winning nine straight home meetings all by 10 or more points. Last year, Georgia Tech beat the Blue Devils 38-14 while outgaining them 469-254 for the game in an completely lopsided affair.

Duke will likely have the same troubles in this one, which is stopping the run. The Yellow Jackets rushed for 344 yards on them last year. They rank 11th in the FBS in rushing (297.2 ypg) behind quarterback Justin Thomas (6.0 ypc) and Zach Laskey (5.0 ypc). Duke has given up over 200 yards rushing in each of its last three games to Kansas, Tulane and Miami.

It’s really sad that the Blue Devils gave up that many yards to both Kansas and Tulane and shows what kind of poor shape this rush D is really in.  Sure, Duke does get a bye to prepare for Georgia Tech, but that is the only factor it has working in its favor.  A bye is not going to magically upgrade their talent on defense, which is what they need to be able to stop this potent Yellow Jackets rushing attack.  David Cutcliffe is 1-9 ATS in road games versus excellent offensive teams that average 6.25 or more yards per play as the coach of Duke.  Bet Georgia Tech Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa -3

The Iowa Hawkeyes are coming off their bye week, so they have two full weeks to prepare for Indiana, which is a huge advantage. They did look shaky in the early going this season with a 2-1 start that included a loss to Iowa State.  However, they have gotten a lot better in their two games since, which have been their two most impressive performances of the season.

Quarterback C.J. Bethard replaced an injured Jake Rudock midway through the Pittsburgh game a couple weeks ago.  He led Iowa to a come-from-behind 24-20 road victory over the Panthers as 6.5-point underdogs.  Bethard continued his solid play the next week, leading Iowa to a 24-10 road win at Purdue as an 8.5-point favorite.

Head coach Kirk is beating around the bush with the media about who is going to play quarterback this week now that Rudock is healthy.  However, with Bethard being the reason for the solid play the last two weeks by this team, there's almost no doubt in my mind that he will get the nod.  He is averaging 7.6 yards per attempt over the last two games compared to Rudock's 6.3 yards per attempt against softer competition in the first three-plus games.  His ability to throw the deep ball opens up the Iowa rushing attack.

Indiana is being overvalued right now due to its 31-27 road win at Missouri.  I was on Indiana in that game because it was a huge lookahead spot for the Tigers, who had their SEC opener on deck against South Carolina the following week.  They caught the Tigers in a spot where they were ripe for the upset.

Really, that was the Hoosiers' only strong performance this season.  They have two terrible efforts in a 42-45 road loss at Bowling Green as a 9-point favorite, and a 15-37 home loss to Maryland as a 2.5-point favorite.  Those two performances are more indicative of what kind of team Indiana is rather than the upset win at Missouri.

This is a great matchup for Iowa because its strength is stopping the run, while Indiana's strength is its rushing attack.  The Hoosiers are averaging 300 yards per game on the ground this season.  However, Iowa is only giving up 93 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry.  That's really impressive when you consider the teams they have played average 145 yards per game and 4.0 per carry on the season.

Iowa has won four of its last five meetings with Indiana with its only loss coming in 2012 by a final of 21-24 on the road.  The Hawkeyes are a real contender to win the Big Ten West Division this season, and they know that they cannot afford to overlook a team like Indiana.  They won't fall victim this week because they have had two weeks to prepare and are itching to get back on the field.

Iowa is 23-4 ATS in its last 27 games versus excellent rushing teams that average 5.25 or more yards per carry.  Indiana is 0-13 ATS in its last 13 games after outrushing its last opponents by 200 or more yards.  The Hoosiers are 0-6 ATS off a win by 17 or more points over the last three seasons.  Thee Hoosiers are 0-7 ATS in their last six games following a win.  These last three trends combine for a perfect 26-0 system backing the Hawkeyes.  Take Iowa Saturday.

15* Fresno State/UNLV Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Fresno State -10

Fresno State (3-3) is coming off a 24-13 home victory over San Diego State last week for its third win in a row. UNLV (1-5) has lost four in a row, including its 10-33 road loss at the hands of San Jose State last week.

The Bulldogs have rebounded nicely with three straight wins and covers following three straight losses and ATS defeats to open the season. Those three losses came against three of the better teams in the country in USC, Utah and Nebraska. They really got the Bulldogs battle-tested heading into conference play, and they have looked like a much better team against inferior competition.

They beat Southern Utah 56-16, New Mexico 35-24 on the road, and San Diego State 24-13 at home. Their defense has really showed some life by limiting each of their last three opponents to 382 or less yards, including the 270 yards to the Aztecs last week. Their offense has also come around with 694 total yards against Southern Utah and 593 total yards against New Mexico. This team is really hitting on all cylinders right now.

UNLV has gone 1-5 against the spread in 2014 after making a bowl game last year. This team has been overvalued all season long to say the least. Its only cover came as an 18-point underdog to San Diego State in a 17-point loss. All five of its losses have come by 14 or more points this season, and its only win came against FCS foe Northern Colorado by a final of 13-12 as a 27.5-point home favorite.

The Rebels have really been bitten by injuries this season. Starting quarterback Blake Decker was injured in last week’s 10-33 loss to San Jose State in which they were outgained by 321 total yards by the Spartans in perhaps their worst effort of the year. Backup Nick Sherry was awful as his replacement, completing just 5 of 18 passes for 45 yards with no touchdowns and one pick.

Decker is questionable to return this week. This is an offense that was already without last year’s top receiver in Devante Davis (87 receptions, 1,290 yards, 14 TD in 2013), who has missed the past two games and is questionable to return this week.  Also, leading rusher Keith Whitely (299 yards, 4.9/carry) is questionable with a knee injury suffered last week.

The Rebels really need these players to be healthy because their offense is going to have a hard time keeping up with opponents due to their porous defense. Indeed, the Rebels are giving up an average of 38.7 points and 545.3 yards per game this season. That’s really bad when you consider that their five opponents this season average just 25.9 points and 418 total yards per game on the year.

Fresno State has owned UNLV by going 10-0 in the last 10 meetings with an average score of 38-16. All 10 wins came by 11 points or more. That includes last year’s 38-14 triumph by the Bulldogs that was completely a one-sided affair. The Bulldogs outgained the Rebels 641-294 for the game. Look for Fresno State to score at will offensively, and to get enough stops against this injury-riddled UNLV offense to cover the number Friday.

Plays on road favorites (FRESNO ST) - after allowing 14 points or less last game against opponent after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games are 43-15 (74.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bulldogs are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.  Fresno State is 5-1 ATS in its last six conference games.  The Rebels are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Take Fresno State Friday.

20* SDSU/New Mexico Mountain West No-Brainer on New Mexico +4.5

San Diego State (2-3) is coming off a 13-24 road loss to Fresno State last week as a 3.5-point underdog. New Mexico (2-3) is coming off a huge upset win at UTSA by a final of 21-9 as a 16.5-point underdog.

San Diego State head coach Rocky Long said on Sunday that senior quarterback Quinn Kaehler is expected to miss a second straight game after sitting out the 13-24 loss to Fresno State last week. That means freshman QB Nick Bawden will get another start after a disastrous effort against the Bulldogs. Bawden threw two interceptions and lost a fumble, and those three turnovers led to 14 points for Fresno State.

Bawden went just 9-of-24 passing for 84 yards with one touchdown on those three turnovers against Fresno State. The loss of Kaehler, who threw for 3,007 yards and 19 touchdowns last year, certainly hurts. The offense was already without last year’s leading receiver in Ezell Ruffin, who had 68 receptions for 1,136 yards and three scores n 2013. That means the offense has lost each of its top four receivers from last year, which makes it tougher on Bawden as he has no playmakers outside.

After a frustrating 24-35 loss to Fresno State two weeks ago, New Mexico showed a lot of resolve last week by going on the road and coming away with a 21-9 victory over a very good UTSA team. It outgained the Roadrunners 370-341 for the game as it put up 283 yards on the ground and 5.9 per carry. Look for the Lobos to control this game behind a potent rushing attack that is averaging 323 yards per game and 6.1 per carry on the season.

The Lobos had won eight straight meetings with the Aztecs prior to losing the last four. However, three of the last four losses have been by 10, 5 and 3 points. They will certainly want some revenge this time around, and should have a good chance of getting it as this is Bob Davie’s best team yet. They only lost 30-35 last year at SDSU as a 14-point underdog and were only outgained 483-423. The home team has won four of the last five meetings.

This is Rocky Long’s worst team yet at San Diego State. This team has really been inept on the road this season.  The Aztecs are 0-3 away from home, scoring just 15.7 points per game while giving up 27.7 points per contest.  They only managed 215 total yards in a 7-28 loss at Oregon State.  They were also held to only 13 points and 270 total yards last week against a very suspect Fresno State defense.

New Mexico is a sensational 39-22 ATS in its last 61 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. The Lobos are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 home games after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games. The Aztecs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a loss. The Lobos are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  Bet New Mexico Friday.

15* BYU/UCF ESPN Thursday Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 46

The season-ending injury to BYU quarterback Taysom Hill is going to derail their season. He was a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender and the reason this team was a sleeper to make the four-team playoff. He was having another fine game against Utah State last week before going out with a broken leg. Backup Christian Stewart was atrocious in his place, completing just 10 of 29 passes for 172 yards with no touchdown and three picks.

Stewart is not even one-fourth of the quarterback that Hill was. While he should be better with a full week to prepare to run the offense, he just lacks the leadership and dual-threat ability that Hill had. He’ll be up against another great defense this week in UCF, which is giving up just 20.7 points and 334.2 yards per game this season.  The Knights limited Houston to just 12 points and 331 total yards last week while forcing three turnovers in their 17-12 road victory over the Cougars.

While the BYU offense will struggle due to a limited playbook for their backup quarterback, their defense will likely shoulder the load and keep them in this ball game.  That's because they will be up against a UCF offense that has been terrible this year.  Indeed, the Knights rank 122nd out of 128 teams in total offense at 281.0 yards per game this season.  They clearly miss Blake Bortles, who has left for the NFL and leaves behind one of the worst offenses in all of college football.

These teams last met in 2011 with BYU coming away with a 24-17 home victory for 41 combined points.  The total was set at 44 points for that game, and I believe we'll see a similar result here with the final combined score finishing less than 46 points.  These teams combined for just 659 total yards in that game, and I look for that number to be less in the rematch considering the poor shape that both of these offenses are in.

Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (BYU) - good rushing team (190 to 230 RY/game) against a team with a good rushing defense (100-140 RY/game), in non-conference games are 50-18 (73.5%) over the last five seasons.  BYU is 29-12 to the UNDER in its last 41 games with a line of +3 to -3.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Cougars last five Thursday games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Cougars last six road games.  The UNDER is 29-14 in Knights last 43 non-conference games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Knights last five home games.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Utah/UCLA Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah +13.5

The Utah Utes (3-1) are a one-point loss to Washington State (27-28) last week away from being undefeated on the season.  They have blown out Fresno State (59-27) at home as well as coming away with an impressive win at Michigan State (26-10).  They have played a tough schedule to this point and have shown that they are a much-improved team in 2014.

UCLA (4-0) did not look good in the first three weeks of the season.  It failed to cover the spread in each of its first three games, winning at Virginia (28-20) as a 19-point favorite, beating Memphis (42-35) at home as a 22-point favorite, and knocking off Texas (20-17) on the road as an 8-point favorite.  Those results were certainly reason to worry about the Bruins.

However, they came back with an inspired effort last week after having lost to Arizona State last year, which cost them a shot at a Pac-12 Title.  Of course they were going to be up for that game, and they showed it by throttling the Sun Devils (62-27) on the road.  The thing is that ASU is way down this season with only two returning starters on defense, plus they lost starting quarterback Taylor Kelly to injury, so he didn't even play in that game.  This team just isn't the same without Kelly running the show.

Now, the public perception is that UCLA is the team that we thought they were going to be coming into the season.  That could not be further from the truth.  I'm not willing to just throw out their first three games of the season, which showed that they weren't the team they were cracked up to be.  The Bruins still have a lot of flaws, yet they are being asked to win by two touchdowns against an improved Utah team this week to cover the spread.

There's no question that the Bruins are overvalued this week in my mind.  Now, they are in a very tough spot mentally.  They just got revenge on ASU and are undefeated on the season.  That alone sets them up for a letdown spot.  However, the bigger situational factor in play here is the fact that UCLA has Oregon on deck next week.  Without question, the Bruins will be looking ahead to that game, and the Utes won't have their full attention because of it.

We've seen the last two years that Utah is capable of beating UCLA, but it has come up just short both times.  UCLA beat Utah 21-14 as a 9.5-point home favorite in 2012, only outgaining the Utes 354-319 for the game.  Then, last year, the Utes lost 27-34 at home to the Bruins as a 5-point underdog.  They were only outgained 387-404 in that game, and the only reason they lost was because they committed a whopping six turnovers.  I look for this game to be decided by a touchdown or less as well, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Utes pull the upset.

Plays against home favorites (UCLA) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (

25* SEC West GAME OF THE YEAR on LSU +7.5

This is essentially a must-win game for LSU if it wants to compete for an SEC West Title. That extra motivation will certainly be in play here after the loss to Mississippi State in the conference opener. A very tough schedule thus far that has featured Wisconsin and the Bulldogs will have this team battle-tested as it goes into Auburn this weekend.

LSU fell way behind against Mississippi State, but rallied and made a game out of it late thanks to the play of sophomore quarterback Brandon Harris. He took the place of the ineffective Anthony Jennings in that game, and went 6-of-9 passing for 140 yards and two touchdowns to lead LSU back late.

Harris continued his stellar play against New Mexico State, going 11-of-14 for 178 yards and three touchdowns without a pick. All seven of his drives against the Aggies resulted in touchdowns for the Tigers.  Jennings has completed 50.6 percent of his passes (42 of 83) for 734 yards and five touchdowns with three interceptions. In a smaller body of work, Harris has completed 73.3 percent (22 of 30) for 394 yards and six scores with one INT.  This guy is the real deal and the future of the program.  He'll get the start this week.

Auburn is still overvalued after making the national title game last year. It won a whopping six games by a touchdown or less in 2013, and it already has one of those on its résumé thus far. It beat Kansas State on the road 20-14 in a game that it should have lost. The Wildcats missed three field goals in that game and committed three turnovers, including one that would have been a touchdown that bounce off a receiver’s chest and wound up being an interception in Auburn’s end zone.

LSU beat Auburn 35-21 at home last year to continue its domination in this series. Indeed, LSU has won six of the last seven meetings with Auburn. LSU led 21-0 at halftime last year with Auburn not once making it past the LSU 41-yard line. Auburn would make a bit of a comeback after halftime, but this game was already decided at that point as LSU handed Auburn its only regular season defeat.

Plays against home favorites (AUBURN) – after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games against opponent after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. LSU is 31-15 ATS in its last 46 road games versus good rushing defenses that allow 120 or fewer rushing yards per game. Auburn is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 games after allowing less than 20 points in its previous game.  Bet LSU Saturday.

15* Stanford/Notre Dame Rivalry Play on Notre Dame +2.5

I have been very impressed with Notre Dame this season behind the play of quarterback Everett Golson. It has opened 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread with its only non-cover coming against Purdue (30-14) as a 30-point favorite. That was a clear letdown spot for the Irish off the big 31-0 win over Michigan as a 4-point favorite. It has also beaten Rice 48-17 at home as a 19.5-point favorite, and Syracuse 31-15 on the road as a 7.5-point favorite.

Golson is now 14-1 as a starter at Notre Dame with his only loss coming against Florida State in the 2012-13 BCS Championship. He is completing 69.6 percent of his passes for 1,142 yards with 11 touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 104 yards and four scores this year.

The junior was suspended for all of the 2013 season, which allowed him to work on his game while also watching from the outside to work on the mental side of it, too. It’s clearly paying big dividends this year as the offense is averaging 35.0 points and 444.2 yards per game, and Golson is a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender.

There's no denying that Stanford has an elite defense. It has put up tremendous numbers this season, but a closer look at the schedule shows that it hasn't been as impressive as it is perceived to be.  The Cardinal have not faced an offense as good as the one they will be up against this week.  Their four opponents have been Cal Davis, USC, Army and Washington.  USC is by far the best offensive team they have played, and Washington has one of the worst offenses in the Pac-12.

The problem for this team is the play of quarterback Kevin Hogan, who just holds the Cardinal down. They had nine trips inside the USC 30-yard line and only came away with 10 points, losing by a final of 10-13. Last week, the defense limited Washington to 13 points, but Hogan was only able to muster up 20 points as the Cardinal got a late score to win by a touchdown 20-13. That was not a very good Washington team, and USC is obviously not a great team either as it lost to Boston College.

Despite playing a tougher schedule than Stanford, the Fighting Irish have held their own defensively as well.  They are only giving up 11.5 points per game on the season.  They shut out Michigan 31-0 and have held all four of their opponents in Rice, Michigan, Purdue and Syracuse to 17 points or less.  The Cardinal may have a slight edge on defense, but the difference in this game will be Golson outplaying Hogan by a landslide, as well as the home-field for the Fighting Irish.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series between Stanford and Notre Dame. The home team has won three straight and five of the last six meetings. Even in a down year last season, the Irish hung tough on the road and only lost by a final of 20-27 as a 16.5-point underdog. With Golson running the show this time around, I look for him to improve to 15-1 as a starter overall, including 2-0 against Stanford.

Notre Dame is 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 60% to 75% over the last three seasons. The Cardinal are 2-5 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record. The Fighting Irish are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. Pac-12 opponents. Notre Dame is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 non-conference games.  Take Notre Dame Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on TCU +6

I picked TCU (3-0) to surprise and win the Big 12 this season and have seen nothing to this point to change my mind. This will be Oklahoma’s toughest test of the entire season, and I look for it to fail and come away with a loss in Forth Worth Saturday afternoon. The perception on the Horned Frogs is that they are down since they joined the Big 12, but they simply have had inexperience and close losses over the past two seasons.

Two of those close losses last year came to both Oklahoma and Baylor. The Horned Frogs were only beaten by the Sooners 17-20 on the road as a 10-point underdog. They then gave Baylor a run for their money in their season finale, losing 38-41 at home as a 13-point dog. Remember, this team went 4-8 last year, but they were much better than their record would indicate. That is going to show in 2014 as Gary Patterson has his best team yet with 16 returning starters and a hungry, talented, experienced bunch.

I love what the new up-tempo, spread offense is doing for the Horned Frogs this year. They are averaging 44.7 points and 532.0 yards per game behind the play of junior quarterback Trevone Boykin. He is completing 64.2 percent of his passes for 858 yards and eight touchdowns with one interception, while also rushing for 183 yards and three scores.

The defense has been dynamite and is the backbone of this team after finishing 1st in the conference in total defense last year. The Frogs are giving up just 7.0 points and 218.7 yards per game. Their 30-7 win over Minnesota looks a lot better now after the Golden Gophers went into Michigan and came away with a 30-14 win last week. TCU held a very good Minnesota rushing attack to just 99 yards on 36 carries. It is allowing just 92 rushing yards per game and 2.1 per carry this season.

Admittedly, Oklahoma has been better than I expected it to be coming into the season. However, this team hasn’t faced the toughest of schedules. Also, its 34-10 win over Tennessee at home wasn’t the blowout that the final score would indicate as the Vols were going in for a TD in the fourth quarter that would have made it a 10-point game, but threw a 100-yard pick six. The 45-33 win at West Virginia saw the Mountaineers put up 513 total yards, but the three turnovers they committed really were the different in the game.

Despite not getting the results that they wanted in their first two seasons in the Big 12, the Horned Frogs played the Sooners tough in both meetings.  As stated before, they only lost 17-20 at Oklahoma last year.  They also lost 17-24 at home to Oklahoma in 2012.  Both meetings were decided by a touchdown or less, and this one is likely to come down to the wire as well, which is where the 6-point spread comes into play.  Except this time, because this is arguably Patterson's best TCU team yet, I look for the Frogs to pull the upset.  We'll just take the points for some added insurance.

Plays on any team (TCU) – with a great scoring defense – allowing 14 or less points/game, after three straight wins by 21 or more points are 87-44 (66.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. TCU is 59-37 ATS in its last 96 home games. The Horned Frogs are 31-16 ATS in their last 47 road games after allowing 14 points or less last game. Gary Patterson is 63-15 at home as the coach of TCU. The Horned Frogs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Bet TCU Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Baylor -14.5

While the spreads have been set pretty big for Baylor (4-0), the fact of the matter is that this team still doesn’t get enough respect from oddsmakers. It went 8-4 ATS in 2011, 9-4 ATS in 2012 and 9-4 ATS in 2013. It has already opened 3-0-1 ATS in 2014 with its only non-cover coming against Iowa State last week in a 49-28 win as a 21-point favorite. The Cyclones scored 21 points in the second half with the game already decided and Baylor taking the foot off the gas.

Don’t look for the Bears to take their foot off the gas in this one. Art Briles knows that his program is fighting for recruiting with Texas, and his team has been actually winning that battle recently. The only way to keep winning it is to continue beating Texas handily, so look for him to show no mercy in this game like he did last week against Iowa State when he pulled Bryce Petty and several starters after three quarters.

You can believe that Briles will be reminding his players of all the agony this program had to go through for a long time when Texas kept beating it repeatedly. The tables have turned, and now the Bears have won three of the last four meetings while going a perfect 4-0 ATS. They have put up over 500 yards of offense on Texas in each of the last three meetings as well.

The 30-10 win over the Longhorns last year was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as the Bears outgained them 508-217 for the game. They would have won by more, but they were feeling the nerves of trying to win their first Big 12 Championship in the season finale and were tight.  They won't be tight in this one as this is an early-season matchup and they'll be looking to make a statement once again.

Texas is in rebuilding mode right now. It has already suffered two losses this season with an embarrassing 7-41 setback against BYU, and a 17-20 home loss to UCLA. That game against the Bruins was a bigger blowout than the final score shows as the Longhorns were outgained 322-443 for the game. Brett Hundley had to leave that game early in the first quarter, forcing UCLA to use its backup quarterback for nearly all four quarters, and yet it still won.  The perception that the Longhorns played the Bruins tough is a contributing factor in keeping this number lower than it should be.

The Longhorns are without their starting quarterback and three starting offensive linemen. They have had nine players kicked off the team as Charlie Strong tries to put his imprint on the program. Sure, there are some players who are buying in, but these aren’t Strong’s players. They are having a tough time adjusting to his way of doing things, and not everybody is laying it all on the line for him right now.

The offense only managed 329 total yards against lowly Kansas last week, and they are averaging just 315.5 yards per game on the season.  They simply do not have the firepower to keep up with Baylor in this one.  One of the biggest reasons the Bears are underrated is because their offense gets all the credit.  Meanwhile, the defense is going under the radar, allowing just 13.7 points and 250.5 yards per game this season.  This is arguably the best stop unit in the Big 12.  The Bears certainly have the best D-Line in the conference.

Plays on any team (BAYLOR) – excellent offensive team (>=440 YPG) against a poor offensive team (280 to 330 YPG), after gaining 575 or more total yards/game over their last two games are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Texas is 0-6 ATS off a game where it forced three or more turnovers over the last two seasons. The Bears are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games overall. Roll with Baylor Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Ohio State -7.5

Once Ohio State lost to Virginia Tech in Week 2, I knew there was going to be a lot of value in backing this team going forward.  That has proven to be the case as they have gone 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their two games since with a 66-0 home win over Kent State as a 31-point favorite and a 50-28 home victory over Cincinnati as a 17-point favorite.  Unfortunately, I didn't back the Buckeyes against Kent State, but I did roll them last week against Cincinnati.

I'm on the Buckeyes again this week for many of the same reasons.  This is still arguably the best team in the Big Ten.  The problem early in the season was the play of freshman quarterback J.T. Barrett, but this youngster has improved by leaps and bounds the last two weeks.  After all, he was the second-ranked QB recruit in the country coming out of high school, so it was only a matter of time before he'd start to shine.

He has done just that these last two weeks.  Barrett went 23 of 30 passing for 312 yards and six touchdowns with one pick while leading the Buckeyes to 628 yards of total offense against Kent State.  He came back with another strong performance against a much better team in Cincinnati last week.  He went 26 of 36 passing for 330 yards and four touchdowns without a pick, while also rushing for 79 yards in the win. 

So, over the last two weeks combined, he is putting up Heisman Trophy-like numbers with 642 passing yards, 10 touchdowns and one pick.  You can look, but you won't find another head coach that has had better success with quarterbacks than Urban Meyer, who has turned guys like Alex Smith, Troy Smith and Tim Tebow into superstars at the college level.  Meyer is also now 27-1 in the regular season as the coach of Ohio State.

Maryland (4-1) is certainly an improved team this year, but all four of its wins have come against mediocre competition in James Madison, South Florida, Syracuse and Indiana.  The one loss came against West Virginia at home, and even that contest was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  The Terrapins were actually outgained by the Mountaineers 447-694 for the game.  If the defense gave up nearly 700 yards to WVU, just imagine what Barrett and company are going to do in this one.

Meyer is now 93-56 ATS in all games he has coached.  Meyer is 38-13 ATS off a non-conference game in all games he has coached.  Randy Edsall is 2-12 ATS off a game where his team forced one or fewer turnovers as the coach of Maryland.  The Buckeyes are 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Terrapins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a S.U. win.  It's also worth nothing that Maryland QB C.J. Brown is questionable to play this week after suffering an injury against Indiana, tho early reports are that he will start.  Bet Ohio State Saturday.

20* Texas A&M/Mississippi State SEC No-Brainer on Mississippi State -2

The Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-0) are the real deal this season, yet they continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers as only a 2-point home favorite here. Dan Mullen has his best team yet with 16 returning starters and 57 lettermen who came back from last year’s squad. This is a team that started to show signs of life at the end of last year with close losses to Texas A&M and Alabama, and then three straight victories to close out the season.

They have picked up right where they left off with a perfect 4-0 start this year. The win at LSU really tells a lot about how far this team has come. The 34-29 final doesn’t do that game justice as it was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Bulldogs led the Tigers 34-10 in the fourth quarter before a late rally by the Tigers made the final score look closer than it really was. Mississippi State outgained LSU 570-430 for the game.

Dak Prescott is a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender. He proved it against LSU, throwing for 268 yards and two touchdowns, while also rushing for 105 yards and a score. Josh Robinson had a monster day on the ground, rushing for 197 yards and a touchdown as well. Prescott is completing 60.4 percent of his passes for 964 yards and 11 touchdowns against two interceptions, while also rushing for 378 yards and three scores on the year. Robinson has 485 rushing yards and four touchdowns while averaging 7.8 per carry.

Almost everyone jumped on the Texas A&M bandwagon after a 52-28 win over South Carolina in the opener. That win doesn’t look nearly as good now as the Gamecocks already have two losses this season and are clearly down. Three straight blowout wins over lesser competition further upped the hype on the Aggies. However, in their 38-10 win over Rice, they were actually outgained 481-477 for the game. Then their weaknesses really showed against Arkansas last week.

Texas A&M really had no business beating Arkansas, but wound up doing so by a final of 35-28 in overtime despite trailing 28-14 late in the third quarter. The defense is the real problem for the Aggies. They gave up those 481 yards to Rice, and then they allowed 484 yards to the Razorbacks. A whopping 285 of those came on the ground. Now, they'll be up against another elite rushing attack this week, and also a team that throws the football a lot better than Arkansas.

Mississippi State hung tough at Texas A&M last year in a 41-51 road loss as a 19.5-point underdog. It actually outgained the Aggies 566-537 for the game while racking up 299 yards on the ground and 257 through the air. Prescott was splitting time with Tyler Russell at quarterback in that game and still threw for 149 yards and two touchdowns, while also rushing for 154 yards on 16 carries. Having to face Prescott for a full four quarters will expose this A&M defense even more.

Texas A&M is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games when facing a team with a winning record. The Aggies are 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. good rushing teams that average 4.75 or more yards per carry. Texas A&M is 0-6 ATS in its last six vs. good offensive teams that average 425 or more yards per game. The Aggies are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games after gaining 450 or more yards in three consecutive games. The Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.

These five trends combine for a 36-2 ATS system backing the Bulldogs.  Finally, Mississippi State has had a bye week to get ready for Texas A&M, which will be a huge advantage heading into this one.  Take Mississippi State Saturday.

20* Utah State/BYU ESPN Friday Night BAILOUT on Utah State +21

Both BYU (4-0) and Utah State (2-2) are coming off byes heading into this one. The Cougars were last seen beating Virginia 41-33 as a 16-point home favorite. The Aggies were last in action with a 14-21 (OT) road loss at Arkansas State as a 2.5-point dog.

In these rivalry games, I usually look to take the underdog when the spread is this big. These games are played much closer to the vest, and they tend to be closer than expected when the favorite is laying this many points. The Aggies have hung tough in this rivalry by going 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings with their biggest loss coming by 20 points during this span. Two of their last their last three losses to the Cougars have come by a field goal.

BYU comes into this game overvalued due to its perfect start to the season, which included a blowout win at Texas. It has clearly been overvalued in its last two games, which both have come at home. It was a 17-point favorite over Houston and only won 33-25. It was also a 16-point favorite against Virginia and only won 41-33. I could easily see this game going down to the wire, let alone the Aggies staying within three touchdowns.

Utah State is not getting much love here because it was blown out at Tennessee in its opener. However, the Vols are much better than they get credit for, as evidenced by last week’s three-point road loss at Georgia. The 14-21 loss at Arkansas State looks bad too, but the Aggies actually outplayed the Red Wolves in a losing effort. They outgained them 413-316 for the game and should have won.

Sure, starting quarterback Chuckie Keaton is injured and may be done for the year, but backup Darrell Garretson has actually put up better numbers than Keaton this season. Indeed, he is completing 61.3 percent of his passes for 389 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions while filling in for Keaton. He completed 27 passes for 268 yards with two touchdowns and one pick in the loss to Arkansas State and has had nearly two weeks of practice to get ready for this one.

Utah State tends to have one of the more underrated defenses in the country year in and year out. Despite all the losses on this side of the ball in the offseason, the Aggies have held their own. They are only allowing 334.7 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play while forcing 11 turnovers through four games. This stop unit has familiarity working in its favor having faced BYU each of the past six seasons.

The strength of the Utah State defense is its run D, which is allowing 78 yards per game and 2.2 per carry. BYU relies heavily on its rushing attack, averaging 230 yards per game and 4.7 per carry.  That makes this a great matchup for Utah State, especially with its familiarity with the Cougars' offense.

BYU is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games vs. excellent run defenses that allow 2.75 or fewer yards per carry. The Aggies are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games off one or more consecutive losses. The Cougars are 1-10 ATS off a home win over the past three seasons.  Bet Utah State Friday.

20* Arizona/Oregon ESPN Thursday Night BAILOUT on Arizona +24

Both Oregon (4-0, 1-0 Pac-12) and Arizona (4-0, 1-0 Pac-12) are coming off bye weeks. The Ducks were last seen beating Washington State 38-31 on the road as a 23-point favorite on September 20th. The Wildcats are coming off a 49-45 home win over California thanks to a hail mary for a touchdown on the final play of the game.

The Ducks have been a huge public team over the last few years, which is why they have consistently been overvalued this season, and appear to be overvalued again as a 24-point favorite in this one. The public continues to back them religiously, which is why their numbers have been set too high. They have gone just 1-3 ATS in 2014 and were fortunate to cover against Michigan State, needing 28 unanswered points in the second half to win 46-27 as a 14-point favorite.

That game against the Spartans was much closer than the final score would indicate as the Ducks only outgained them 491-466. They only outgained Wyoming by 117 total yards in their 48-14 victory, another contest that was closer than the final score. Then, they only outgained Washington State 501-499 in their narrow 38-31 road victory last time out as a 23-point favorite.

Oregon’s defense has been torched by opposing quarterbacks for an average of 315 passing yards per game this season. It gave up 343 yards to Michigan State, 284 yards to Wyoming, and 436 yards to Washington State through the air. Now, Oregon will be up against a high-powered Arizona offensive attack that is averaging 42.0 points and 593.7 yards per game, including 366 passing yards per contest.

The Wildcats clearly have the offense that can put up points and allow them to stay within the number in this one. Anu Solomon is one of the best quarterbacks in the country that not too many folks know about. He is completing 63.4 percent of his passes for 1,454 yards with 13 touchdowns and three interceptions, while also rushing for 167 yards on 39 carries. Cayleb Jones already has 29 receptions for 475 yards and six touchdowns as part of one of the best receiving corps in the land.

Scoring points has not been a problem for Arizona in this series with Oregon. Indeed, the Wildcats have put up 29 or more points in seven of their last eight meetings with the Ducks. I believe 29 or more points is a foregone conclusion against this soft Oregon defense, which will allow them to stay within this 24-point spread as the Ducks likely won’t get to 50. Oregon is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine games overall. The Ducks are 0-5 ATS in their last five conference games.  Bet Arizona Thursday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Baylor -21

The Baylor Bears have gotten off to another fast start this season, winning and covering each of their first three games, including their 63-21 victory at Buffalo last time out. Somehow, some way the Bears continue to not get the credit they deserve from oddsmakers. They won the Big 12 last year and are one of the favorites to win it again in 2014.

The books simply haven’t been able to set the numbers high enough in these first three games. The Bears have covered as a 31.5-point favorite against SMU (45-0), a 46.5-point favorite against Northwestern State (70-6), and as a 33-point favorite over Buffalo (63-21).  I don’t believe they have set the number high enough in this game, either.

Baylor has been the most impressive team in the Big 12 to this point, or it is at least neck-and-neck with Oklahoma. Its offense is dynamite once again despite being down some receivers due to injury for a few games. It is averaging 59.3 points and 654.3 yards per game, and after having two weeks to get healthy, starting receivers Antwan Goodley and Corey Coleman are expected to return this week. The defense has been as good if not better than the offense in allowing just 9.0 points and 221.0 yards per game.

Baylor absolutely destroyed Iowa State last year in a 71-7 victory that was as impressive as any in all of college football. It racked up 714 yards of offense while allowing just 174 to the Cyclones. Bryce Petty went 23 of 31 passing for 343 yards and two touchdowns before getting pulled early. The defense held Cyclone quarterbacks to 15 of 27 passing for 123 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. They also limited ISU to 41 yards on 33 carries on the ground, an average of 1.2 per carry.

Iowa State is coming off its Super Bowl, which is the instate rivalry against Iowa that means more to the Cyclones than any other game throughout the course of any season. They did win that game 20-17, but the Hawkeyes are clearly down this season. You can’t forget the stinker that this team put up in the opener with a 14-34 loss to North Dakota State as the Cyclones allowed 34 unanswered points after taking an early 14-0 lead. They were outgained in that game 253-503 by the Bison.

While Iowa State did hang tough against Kansas State, it needed a TD on a punt return as well as another score on a reverse pass to keep that game close. In all reality, that game was far from the 28-32 contest it turned out to be. The Cyclones were actually outgained 319-471 by the Wildcats and should have lost by a lot more. All 28 of their points came in a wild second quarter where the Wildcats simply let down their guard. Baylor doesn’t let down its guard, it just keeps pouring on the points, which allows it to cover these big spreads.

Plays on any team (BAYLOR) – excellent offensive team (>=440 YPG) against a poor offensive team (280 to 330 YPG), after gaining 575 or more total yards/game over their last two games are 28-6 (82.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Bears are 7-0 ATS off a win by 35 points or more over the past two seasons. Iowa State is 1-8 ATS vs. good rushing teams that gain 4.75 or more yards per carry over the last three seasons. Baylor is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games overall.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Ohio State -17

The Buckeyes (2-1) are coming off a 66-0 home win against Kent State prior to having their first bye of the season last week. The Cincinnati Bearcats (2-0) were on the only team in the country to have byes in the first two weeks of the season. They have since beaten Toledo 58-34 and Miami of Ohio 31-24 at home each of the past two weeks, respectively.

I believe the Buckeyes are undervalued right now after their slow start to the season. They won at Navy 34-17 in their opener, but needed a monster finish to pull away for that victory in a game that was closer than the final score would indicate. Then, they lost at home to Virginia Tech by a final of 21-35 as they were sloppy in committing three turnovers.

That loss to the Hokies was the first regular season defeat in the Urban Meyer era, a span of two-plus years and a 24-1 record later. He used it as a teaching lesson, and his team could not have responded better the following week. They beat Kent State 66-0 in an absolutely dominant effort, outgaining the Golden Flashes 628-126 for the game while forcing three turnovers. They had a bye week last week, which will only allow Meyer to further progress his team.

It was obviously going to take some time for freshman quarterback J.T. Barrett to get comfortable.  Meyer has done wonders with quarterbacks since becoming a head coach, and Barrett is a guy that he recruited who is a future start.  He started to show that against Kent State, completing 23 of 30 passes for 312 yards and six touchdowns with one interception.  Expect him to continue to improve by leaps and bounds as the season moves along.

Cincinnati clearly is not that good this season despite the 2-0 start. Its 58-34 win over Toledo was nowhere near the blowout it would indicate as it allowed 563 total yards to the Rockets and their backup quarterback. It only beat a terrible Miami of Ohio team by a final of 31-24 at home last week as a 30-point favorite. It only outgained the Redhawks 370-364 for the game as well. Tthe Bearcats really don’t stand much of a chance of keeping this one competitive.

Cincinnati has not been able to run the football on either Toledo or Miami Ohio, which both have soft defenses.  It is only averaging 123 yards per game on the ground and 4.1 per carry.  It relies heavily on the pass, which is good news for Ohio State backers.  The Buckeyes are only allowing 99 passing yards per game and 4.0 per attempt.

The Buckeyes have won 10 straight meetings between these instate foes.  The Bearcats are 0-9 all-time in Columbus, including a 37-7 loss to Ohio State in the most recent meeting in 2006.  They also lost 6-27 prior to that in 2004 in Columbus as well.

Ohio State is 8-0 ATS in its last eight home games after gaining 6.75 or more yards and allowing 3.75 or less yards per play last game. The Buckeyes are 25-10-2 ATS in their last 37 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The Buckeyes are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Take Ohio State Saturday.

15* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Stanford -7

The No. 16 Stanford Cardinal (2-1) hit the road on Saturday, September 27th to take on the Washington Huskies (4-0) in a Pac-12 showdown. The Cardinal have won five of the last six meetings in this series, including a thrilling 31-28 home victory last year as a 9-point favorite.

The Cardinal had last week off following their 35-0 shutout of Army in Week 3 as a 30-point home favorite. The Huskies played Georgia State last week and wound up pulling away in the second half for a 45-14 victory to remain unbeaten on the season.

After losing to USC at home 10-13 in Week 2, the Cardinal know they cannot afford another loss if they want to win a third straight Pac-12 Title. That’s why they won’t be taking any teams lightly the rest of the way. There’s no way they should have lost to the Trojans in the first place as they outgained them 413-291 for the game, but committed two turnovers and simply beat themselves. They had a whopping nine drive that got inside the USC 30-yard line, so coming away with 10 points is unacceptable and highly unlikely.

Stanford got right with a 35-0 trouncing of Army in Week 3. It has since had a bye week to prepare for Washington, which did not have last week off. That extra week of preparation for the Cardinal will be a huge advantage heading into this one. It’s not like they need it as they have dominated the Huskies in recent years, winning five of the past six meetings in this series while going 4-2 ATS.

Washington is extremely fortunate to be 4-0 this season and is nowhere near as good as its record would indicate. It was outgained by 88 yards in a 17-16 win at Hawaii, outgained by 37 yards in a 59-52 home win over Eastern Washington, and it trailed Georgia State 14-0 at halftime last week.

Sure, the Huskies scored 45 points in the second half to pull away from Georgia State, but they were gift-wrapped most of those points due to four second-half turnovers by the Panthers. The Huskies only managed 336 total yards against an awful Georgia State defense.  This team is clearly overvalued right now due to the 4-0 record.

Simply put, Washington has no passing game. It couldn’t have faced an easier schedule to this point, yet it is only averaging 179 passing yards per game. It has been relying on its rushing attack, which has produced 239 yards per game.

That makes this a great match-up for Stanford, which has been one of the best teams in the country at stopping the run throughout the years.  The Cardinal are only giving up 138 rushing yards per game 3.5 per carry, which is impressive when you consider they have played both USC and and the triple-option attack of Army.

Stanford is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games following a win by 28 points or more. Washington is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games following a blowout home win by 28 points or more. The Huskies are 9-24 ATS in their last 33 games following a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better. The Cardinal are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 road games. Stanford is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Washington.  Roll with Stanford Saturday.

15* FSU/NC State ACC Saturday No-Brainer on NC State +18.5

The No. 1 Florida State Seminoles (3-0) travel to face the North Carolina State Wolfpack (4-0) on Saturday, September 27th. The home team has won five straight meetings in this series, including a 49-17 victory by the Seminoles last year as a 34-point favorite.

The Seminoles are coming off a thrilling 23-17 overtime victory over the Clemson Tigers. They managed to gut out a win without Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston, who was serving a one-game suspension. The Wolfpack are coming off a 42-0 beat down of Presbyterian at home last week.

The Wolfpack have already exceeded their win total from last season. They haven’t exactly played the toughest of schedules en route to their 4-0 start, but Georgia Southern and Old Dominion are no pushovers, and this team has improved with every game. I was extremely impressed with their Week 3 road victory at South Florida by a final of 49-17 as they outgained the Bulls by 430 total yards for the game.

After having just 10 starters back in his first season on the job in 2013, head coach Dave Doeren has 14 starters back this year, and several of his recruits are getting playing time. Jacoby Brissett, the former Florida transfer, has taken his game to the next level this year with the Wolfpack. He is completing 69.7 percent of his passes for 1,005 yards with 10 touchdowns and one interception, while also rushing for 118 yards and a score.

Florida State came into this season way overvalued after winning the BCS Championship. That has proven to be the case as it has failed to cover the spread in each of its first three games. It only beat Oklahoma State 37-31 as an 18-point favorite, The Citadel 37-12 as a 58.5-point favorite, and Clemson 23-17 as a 9.5-point favorite. The Seminoles were actually outgained by 89 yards against the Tigers last week. This is a letdown spot for them because Clemson was considered their biggest threat to win the Atlantic Division.

No team plays Florida State tougher more consistently in recent years than NC State. That’s evident by the fact that the Wolfpack are 11-1-1 (92%) ATS in their last 13 meetings with the Seminoles. The home team has won each of the last five meetings in this series, including a 17-16 upset win by NC State in 2012 as a 17-point underdog. The Wolpack will be licking their chops at another opportunity to pull the upset against the defending national champs in this one.

The Seminoles are more vulnerable defensively than they were last year. They gave up 161 yards on the ground to Oklahoma State and 250 to The Citadel. They also allowed 306 passing yards to Clemson last week. NC State’s balanced offensive attack will give this FSU defense some troubles. The Wolfpack are averaging 249 yards on the ground and 253 through the air for  a whopping 502 total yards per game.

The Wolfpack are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The underdogs is 13-3-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings in this series.  The Seminoles are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Raleigh.  Bet NC State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on UTEP +28

Kansas State has been a covering machine with Bill Snyder as its head coach throughout the years.  However, it has done most of its damage in the role of the underdog, just as it did against Auburn last week in staying within the number despite losing the game.  This team isn't nearly as efficient at covering spreads in the role of the favorite, especially a four-TD favorite like they are today against UTEP.

That loss to Auburn puts the Wildcats in a serious hangover spot here.  They essentially gave that game away by missing three field goals and arguably outplayed the Tigers.  With a Big 12 game on deck against Texas Tech, they are going to be in a tough spot here mentally.  I do not believe they are going to have the kind of focus it takes to win this game by more than four touchdowns and cover the spread.

Regardless of Kansas State's mental state, I believe UTEP would cover this number a lot more times than it wouldn't.  This is one of the more underrated teams in the country in my opinion.  It was a rebuilding season last year for head coach Sean Kugler in his first season on the job as he had just 12 returning starters.  Now, he has 15 starters back and a more talented bunch than they get credit for.

UTEP beat New Mexico in the opener 31-24 on the road despite being a 10-point underdog while racking up 446 total yards in the win.  It then only lost at home to Texas Tech 26-30 as a 21-point underdog as the Red Raiders needed a late score in the 4th quarter and a defensive stop to sneak away with a victory. 

The Miners didn't let that loss bring them down as they rebounded nicely with a 42-24 road win over New Mexico State as a 10-point favorite while gaining 470 total yards in the win.  They have since had a bye week last week, giving them two full weeks to prepare for Kansas State, which will be a huge advantage. 

This is a UTEP team that could legitimately make a bowl game this year for just the second time in the past nine seasons.  It has a relentless rushing attack that is averaging 317 yards per game and 6.2 per carry this season.  Aaron Jones is a name you should get familiar with.  His 184.0 yards per game average ranks second in the FBS, and he also has seven touchdowns this year while averaging 7.0 per carry.  Former Texas A&M transfer Jameill Showers is doing an excellent job of running the offense at the quarterback position as well.

The Miners are one of only six FBS teams with just one giveaway and they've committed 12 penalties - tied for eighth-fewest.  "Those are two things we emphasize with our players everyday with ball security, getting the football, making sure we hang onto the football and the type of accountability we hold in our program carrying over to the discipline with penalties," Kugler said.

Plays against home favorites (KANSAS ST) - off a cover where the team lost as an underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 48-19 (71.6%) ATS since 1992.  The Wildcats are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take UTEP Saturday.

20* Fresno/New Mexico Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on Fresno State -4.5

There’s no question that three straight blowout losses by Fresno State to start the season are concerning. However, one look at the opponents they’ve lost to and I'm willing to give the Bulldogs a free pass. They have had to play road games at USC and Utah as well as a home game against Nebraska. Those three teams have combined to have just one loss so far this season, and they are clearly a class above the Bulldogs.

I like how this team responded as they easily could have been deflated. They bounced back with a resounding 56-16 win over Southern Utah last week while racking up 694 yards of total offense. That's the same Southern Utah team that only lost 19-28 at Nevada, which beat Washington State, which only lost by 7 points to Oregon.

It was clear that this offense would take time to gel with the loss of Derek Carr, but this is clearly a step in the right direction. Facing teams like Southern Utah and New Mexico will feel like a cakewalk after that brutal start to the season against tough competition.

New Mexico lost at home to UTEP 24-31 in its opener and at home to Arizona State 23-58 in Week 2. It barely escaped with a 38-35 win against a terrible New Mexico State team on the road last week. This team is getting way too much respect from the oddsmakers, but it also may be disrespect toward Fresno State because of the 0-3 start.

Remember, the Bulldogs won the Mountain West last year and still have 13 starters back from that team. I still believe they will make a run at another MWC Title this year now that the schedule is much easier and they have had time to work out their problems.

After racking up 694 yards of offense last week, the Bulldogs have to be licking their chops at the opportunity to face a New Mexico defense that is giving up 41.3 points and 518.3 total yards per game. That’s really bad when you consider the quality of competition the Lobos have faced as both UTEP and New Mexico State don’t have that great of offenses. UTEP put up 446 yards, Arizona State 621 yards, and New Mexico State 488 yards on this Lobos’ defense.

New Mexico has some key injuries heading into this one.  Starting quarterback Cole Gautsche left last week's game against New Mexico State with a hamstring injury.  He leads the team with 237 rushing yards while averaging a whopping 11.8 per carry, so that would be a huge loss if he can't go.  It would be hard to believe he's recovered from a hamstring injury on a short week even if he does go.

Starting receiver Carlos Wiggins, who had 252 kick return yards including one for a score against the Bulldogs last year and was a 4th-team All-American kick returner, is questionable with a hamstring injury as well.  Starting right tackle Johnny Vizcaino is expected to miss this game with a concussion.  Starting defensive end Nik D'Avanzo is doubtful with a knee injury.  Running back Teriyon Gipson, who has the most rushing attempts (35) on the team, is questionable with an ankle injury.

The Bulldogs beat New Mexico 69-28 last year for their 8th win in the last nine meetings in this series. They racked up 822 yards while holding the Lobos to just 316 yards, outgaining them by a ridiculous 506 total yards for the game.  I know that Fresno State is down a bit from last year, but the dominance in this series cannot be ignored.  While New Mexico catches many other teams off guard with its rushing attack, the Bulldogs will be prepared for it because they are used to seeing it.

Fresno State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven vs. good rushing teams that average 4.75 or more yards per carry. The Bulldogs are also 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. teams who rush for 230 or more yards per game.  The Lobos are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Bet Fresno State Friday.

15* CFB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Appalachian State +19.5

This is the first season as FBS members for both Georgia Southern & Appalachian State. While Georgia Southern has had the luxury of using a scheme that nobody has been prepared for en route to their 2-2 start, they won’t have that same luxury against Appalachian State.

These are former Southern Conference rivals who are very familiar with one another. They combined to win or tie for 15 of the last 16 conference titles prior to last year.  The Mountaineers won’t be caught by surprise against the Eagles’ triple-option rushing attack like the rest of Georgia Southern’s opponents have been thus far in 2014.

Appalachian State beat Georgia Southern 38-14 at home last year for its fifth win in six meetings in this series. It outgained the Eagles 515-363 for the game. That’s significant because both of these teams return pretty much intact as they each have 15 starters back from last season. The Mountaineers have nine starters back from that offense that put up 515 yards.

Georgia Southern is simply way overvalued here because it has opened the season 4-0 against the spread with close losses to both NC State and Georgia Tech on the road. While impressive, the betting public has taken notice, and this team cannot live up to the expectations it has created for itself.

Meanwhile, Appalachian State is flying under the radar due to a 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS start to the season, including a blowout loss at Michigan and that one-point loss at Southern Miss.  I believe that loss to Southern Miss is stuck in the minds of bettors because the Eagles are not a very good team.

However, a closer look at the box score shows that the Mountaineers really dominated that game and should have won. They  outgained the Eagles 455-329 for the game, but gave it away by committing three turnovers.  They also lost 10 points in the kicking game, including a missed PAT with six seconds left that would have forced overtime. That loss is going to work in our favor here though because the Mountaineers will be motivated, plus now they’re catching a few more points than they should be.

Freshman quarterback Taylor Lamb is running away with the starting quarterback job.  He is completing 65.6 percent of his passes for 427 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 113 yards this year.  Marcus Cox is one of the better running backs in the country that not too many folks know about.  He has rushed for 280 yards and four scores while averaging 5.3 per carry.

This is simply too many points for a rivalry game like this one.  Appalachian State and Georgia Southern are meeting on the gridiron for the 29th time.  Thanks to wins in eight of the last 11 matchups, the Mountaineers lead the all-time series 15-12-1.  They spent 21 seasons as Southern Conference foes from 1993-2013.  I'll take the points in this rivalry game between two very evenly-matched teams.  Take Appalachian State Thursday.

15* Oklahoma/WVU Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on West Virginia +8

Oklahoma (3-0) has lived up to the hype so far this season. It beat Louisiana Tech 48-16 at home in its opener, went on the road and topped Tulsa 52-7, and then thumped Tennessee 34-10 last week as Bob Stoops had his way with another SEC opponent.

West Virginia (2-1) has played a very tough schedule in the early going and has done well for itself. It gave Alabama a run for its money in a 23-33 loss in the opener. It then shut out Towson 54-0 at home before earning a last-second road victory at Maryland (40-37) last weekend.

Without question, the Mountaineers are a completely different team than they were a year ago. They were atrocious to say the least last year, but they did beat then-No. 11 Oklahoma State at home 30-21 as a 19-point underdog. They also gave Oklahoma a run for their money in a 7-16 road loss as a 21-point underdog. After having just eight starters back last year, the Mountaineers have 13 back this season and are vastly improved.

The loss to Alabama was very impressive. They were a 22-point underdog and gave the Crimson Tide all they wanted in a 23-33 road loss. The 54-0 win over Towson was nice, but last week’s 40-37 win at Maryland was even better. This was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as the Mountaineers outgained the Terrapins 694-447 for the game, but they committed four turnovers to keep it close. Clint Trickett threw for 511 yards and four touchdowns in the win.

I believe Oklahoma is a bit overvalued here as more than a touchdown road favorite against WVU. The Sooners have been better than I expected to this point, but they also have played an extremely soft schedule. Their win over Tennessee last week wasn’t the 34-10 blowout it appeared to be as they took advantage of three Tennessee turnovers, including an interception that was returned 100 yards for a score as the Vols were going in to score in the fourth quarter.

Last year, as stated before, the Sooners only beat the Mountaineers 16-7 at home. The Sooners went on to win a BCS bowl game over Alabama, while the Mountaineers went 4-8 last year. Oklahoma only outgained WVU 435-387 for the game. Trevor Knight was awful in the win, completing just 10 of 20 passes for 119 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions.  Sure, Oklahoma is 2-0 against WVU as Big 12 opponents, but both have been by single-digits with their 50-49 road win in 2012 being the other.

Trickett did not play in that game for WVU last year, either. Trickett is a new QB this year, completing 75.4 percent of his passes for 1,224 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception through three games.  The Mountaineers rank 13th in the country in total offense at 564.3 yards per game, which is even more impressive when you consider that they have played two great defenses thus far in Alabama and Maryland.

Oklahoma is 19-42 ATS in its last 61 games after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games.  Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (OKLAHOMA) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins are 31-8 (79.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  It's revenge time in 2014 after back-to-back narrow losses in this series.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Big Dog Special on Georgia State +35

The Washington Huskies (3-0) have survived a couple of scares up to this point.  They beat Hawaii (17-16) on the road as a 17.5-point favorite, Eastern Washington (59-52) at home as a 17-point favorite, and Illinois (44-19) at home as a 13-point favorite.

Georgia State (1-2) could easily be 3-0 right now.  It beat Abilene Christian 38-37 as a 4-point home favorite, lost to New Mexico State (31-34) as a 3-point home favorite, and lost to Air Force (38-48) as a 12-point home dog.

I simply believe that Washington is overvalued right now.  This is a team that lost a ton of talent from last year's squad and is in rebuilding mode despite the 3-0 start.  Only beating Hawaii by a single point and Eastern Washington by a touchdown just goes to show how much work this team has to do to get better in Chris Petersen's first year on the job.

In fact, Washington was actually outgained by 88 total yards in that 17-16 win at Hawaii.  It was also outgained by 37 yards in its 59-52 win over Eastern Washington.  It only outgained Illinois by 113 total yards despite winning by 25 last week.  So, despite being 3-0, this team is actually being outgained 445-449 on average through three games, which isn't the sign of a good team.

Georgia State, meanwhile, has outgained all three of its opponents.  That's why it easily could be 3-0 right now.  It outgained Abiline Christian by 67 yards, NMSU by 21 yards, and Air Force by 10 yards.  That effort against a quality Air Force team really shows that this squad is capable of.  The Panthers are outgaining teams 524-491 on average for the season. Clearly, they have a potent offensive attack that is capable of putting up points on Washington and easily staying within this 35-point spread. 

Quarterback Nick Arbuckle has passed for 1,121 yards and seven touchdowns in three games.  He has three solid targets in tight end Joel Ruiz (15 receptions, 223 yards, two touchdowns) and wideouts Robert Davis (16-202) and LynQuez Blair (15-212-3).   Inside linebacker Joseph Peterson (39 tackles) and outside linebacker Jarrell Robinson (five tackles for loss, two sacks) are Georgia State’s most productive defenders.

This is a massive letdown spot for Washington, which has its Pac-12 opener on deck.  Not only is it their opener, but the Huskies will be playing Stanford, which is a game they will be looking ahead to.  They won't be motivated enough against Georgia State to win this game by more than five touchdowns.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see Georgia State give Washington a scare here.

The Panthers have turned the ball over eight times already, while the Huskies have turned it over only once.  The Panthers at least have an excuse for not opening 3-0 like they easily could have due to those turnovers.  The Huskies have no excuse for their close wins over Hawaii & Eastern Washington because they have committed just one turnover.  Meanwhile, a whopping 56 of their 120 points have come off of opponent's turnovers.

Georgia State is 8-1 ATS after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games over the past two seasons.  Washington is 3-14 ATS against teams with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse since 1992.  The Panthers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.  The Huskies are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 following a win of more than 20 points.  Roll with Georgia State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana +14

Missouri (3-0) has picked up right where it left off last year as SEC East champs. It beat South Dakota State 38-18 at home before playing a couple of tougher opponents. It thumped Toledo 49-24 on the road in Week 2 and then beat UCF 38-10 at home last week.

Indiana (1-1) beat Indiana State 28-10 at home in its opener. It then had a bye week before falling on the road to Bowling Green 42-45 last weekend.

This line opened at Missouri -16 and has been bet down to -13.5 as of this writing for good reason. I look for the Hoosiers to give the Tigers a run for their money Saturday afternoon and to stay within the number, possibly pulling off the upset. Indiana is a team that should be improved this year with 17 returning starters, while Missouri should be in rebuilding mode with only eight starters back.

I realize that doesn’t appear to be the case so far, but Missouri’s wins have been much closer than the final scores would indicate. It has yet to outgain a team by more than 100 yards, yet it has three victories of 20 or more points. It only outgained South Dakota State by 28 yards in the opener, which is absolutely terrible. It also only outgained Toledo by 94 yards in its 25-point win, and then UCF by 23 yards in its 28-point win. This team is living off of turnovers, which is a dangerous way to live.

Indiana's 18-point win over Indiana State was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. It actually outgained the Sycamores by 396 total yards for the game. It also outgained Bowling Green by 11 yards last week in a losing effort. That’s the same Bowling Green team that won the MAC last season. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Hoosiers were looking ahead to this game against Missouri as well knowing that they want payback after losing by 17 at home last year.

Indiana boasts one of the most explosive offenses in the country. Indeed, it ranks 9th in the FBS in total offense at 574.0 yards per game. Nate Sudfeld is completing 71.2 percent of his passes, and Tevin Coleman is a sleeper to win the Heisman Trophy. He has already rushed for 437 yards and five touchdowns while averaging an eye-opening 9.3 yards per carry through two games.

This is a huge letdown spot for Missouri, which has a game at South Carolina on deck, which will be its SEC opener. The Tigers cannot wait for a shot at revenge on the Gamecocks after losing to them in double-overtime at home last year. That lost nearly cost them the SEC East Title.  It's only human nature for them to let down here, and that's a big reason why the Hoosiers will cover.  Roll with Indiana Saturday.

15* Florida/Alabama SEC Saturday No-Brainer on UNDER 51

The books have set the bar too high in this rivalry between Florida (2-0) and Alabama (3-0) Saturday.  I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle similar to the games these teams have played in recent years.  The books are giving us an absolute gift here, so let's take advantage.

I believe the reason this number is inflated is because these teams have combined to go 4-1 to the over so far this season.  Last week, both played in high-scoring games.  Florida beat Kentucky 36-30, and Alabama beat Southern Miss 52-12.  However, that Florida game was tied 20-20 at the end of regulation, and it went to three overtimes to reach that 66-point total.  They only had 40 combined points at the end of regulation.

Without question, these are two of the best defenses in the country.  I believe the perception of Alabama's defense is that it is not as good as in year's past because it gave up 23 points to West Virginia.  Well, after seeing the Mountaineers put up nearly 700 yards of offense and 40 points on a very good Maryland defense last week, it's clearly that the WVU offense is better than it gets credit for.  So holding them to 23 points is not bad.

Florida has been nothing short of dominant defensively each of the last six years.  It has held teams to an average of 314 or fewer yards per game in all six seasons.  This is an elite stop unit once again with seven starters back from last year.  Alabama has allowed 287 or fewer total yards per game in each of the past six seasons.  It has also allowed 14.3 or fewer points per game in all six years.

While these are all important facts as to why I like the UNDER, none is as important as how these teams have fared against one another in recent years.  Alabama & Florida have combined for 48, 37, 45, 51, 41, 38 & 41 points in their last seven meetings, respectively.  That makes for a perfect 6-0-1 system backing the UNDER dating back to 1999 pertaining to today's total set of 51 points, which is way too high.  They have combined to average 43 points per game in their last seven meetings.

Alabama is 9-1 to the UNDER in its last 10 games after scoring 50 points or more in its last game.  The Crimson Tide are 30-10 to the UNDER in their last 40 home games off three or more consecutive wins.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Gators last five road games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Alabama.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Virginia +15

BYU (3-0) has taken care of business so far. It went on the road in its opener and beat UConn 35-10 before traveling to Austin and coming away with a 41-7 win over Texas. It also beat Houston by a final of 33-25 last week.

Virginia (2-1) gave UCLA a run for its money at home, but fell short by a final of 20-28. It then topped Richmond 45-13 at home before knocking off previously ranked Louisville 23-21 at home last week.

Virginia is clearly one of the most improved teams in the country this year. You don’t nearly upset UCLA and then upset Louisville without being a quality team. The signs were there for a turnaround this year as Mike London has been one of the most underrated recruiters in his time at Virginia, but it just hasn’t led to results yet. It is clearly leading to results in 2014 as this is his best team yet with 17 returning starters from last year.

Without question, the Cavaliers have one of the elite defenses in the country, which is going to allow them to keep this game close against BYU. They held a high-powered UCLA offense to just 358 total yards and nearly won that game despite the Bruins getting three defensive touchdowns. They also held a Bobby Petrino-coached Louisville offense to 282 total yards while forcing four turnovers last week.

The area of the Virginia defense that is going to pay off in this game is its front seven. The Cavaliers are only giving up 85 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry. That’s huge because BYU is primarily a running team that averages 259 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry. They have a great running QB in Taysom Hill, but he’ll be forced to try and use his arm more in this one, which is his biggest weakness.

Virginia beat BYU 19-16 at home last year behind a great defensive effort. It allowed just 362 total yards in the game, forced three fumbles that were all recovered by BYU, and intercepted Hill once. Hill finished that game 13 of 40 passing for 175 yards with one touchdown and one pick, while rushing for just 42 yards on 11 carries. The Cavaliers are simply built to stop teams like BYU who rely heavily on the run just as they did last year. The scary thing is that their defense is five times better in 2014.

While the Cavaliers had plenty to celebrate with their win over Louisville, they quickly turned their attention to BYU with a players-only meeting.  "We just gotta stay hungry," receiver Canaan Severin told the school's official website. "Henry (Coley) just wanted to get that point across: You can't be satisfied just by getting that big win. We want more wins than that. We can talk about the win for a whole week, or we can prepare for BYU, and that's what we did."

Plays against home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (BYU) – with a good rushing D – allowing 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry, after allowing 1 or less rushing yards/attempt last game are 22-3 (88%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. BYU is 1-9 ATS off a home win over the last three seasons. The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. I simply believe the Cougars are being overvalued here because they are in the national spotlight due to their 3-0 start, which has earned them the No. 21 ranking in the country.  Take Virginia Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on North Carolina +3

The East Carolina Pirates (2-1) have certainly been impressive to this point.  They beat NC Central at home before giving South Carolina a run for its money on the road in a 23-33 loss.  They bounced back with one of the biggest upsets last week, topping Virginia Tech on the road 28-21.

North Carolina (2-0) has only played two games thus far, beating Liberty 56-29 and San Diego State 31-27 at home.  It has had a bye week to prepare for East Carolina heading into this one, which is a huge advantage.

I simply believe that the Pirates are overvalued here as the favorites because of their win over Virginia Tech last week.  However, VA Tech was in a huge letdown spot off its win over Ohio State the previous week.  Now, ECU is in a letdown spot off its win over the Hokies.  That's just the nature of college football folks.  ECU will not bring the same effort it had against VA Tech.

UNC, meanwhile, will be highly motivated for a win here after getting embarrassed by ECU at home by a final of 55-31 last year.  However, QB Marquise Williams did not play in that game against ECU.  All Williams did after being named the starter for the second half of the season was lead the Tar Heels to wins in six of their final seven games with the only loss coming by two points to Duke.

Williams is now 8-1 in his last nine starts for UNC.  He passed for 1,698 yards and 15 touchdowns against six interceptions last year, while also leading the team in rushing (536 yards, 6 TD).  Williams is among 15 returning starters for a Tar Heels team that is expected to compete for an ACC Title.  He is completing 67.2 percent of his passes for 424 yards and four touchdowns, while also rushing for 115 yards and two scores thus far in 2014.

UNC is 12-3-1 all-time against ECU having NEVER lost two straight in this series.  East Carolina is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 home games after playing two straight non-conference games.  The Pirates are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.  ECU is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take North Carolina Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Iowa Hawkeyes +7

Pittsburgh (3-0) has taken care of business thus far with a perfect start to the season. It beat Delaware 62-0 at home before going on the road to take down Boston College (30-20) and Florida International (42-25) each of the past two weeks.

Iowa (2-1) has gotten off to a shaky start to say the least. It escaped with a 28-20 home win over Northern Iowa before a 17-13 triumph at home against Ball State. Its luck ran out last week with a 17-20 home loss to Iowa State.

This line opened right around a pick ‘em before the season. I understand that everyone should adjust their power rankings based on what they see on the field, but I believe the oddsmakers have over-adjusted here. They have swung the line a full seven points in Pittsburgh’s favor based on what’s happened so far. I still believe the Hawkeyes are the better team, and that will show on the field Saturday.

The betting public is way down on Iowa right now because it has survived a couple scares from Northern Iowa and Ball State, while losing to Iowa State. The thing is that this team has almost always played up and down to its competition ever since Kirk Ferentz has been there. The Hawkeyes will be hungry for a win after blowing a 14-3 lead to the Cyclones last week. They tend to respond well following a loss to Iowa State, going 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games in this situation.

Pittsburgh is getting way too much respect following its 3-0 start against very weak competition. Indeed, Delaware, Boston College and Florida International are all terrible teams. Sure, BC beat USC last week, but that was a massive letdown spot for the Trojans, who were coming off a win over Stanford the previous week and should have lost that game. The Panthers only beat FIU, which went 1-11 last season, by 17 as a 24.5-point favorite.

Both Iowa and Pittsburgh play very similar styles, which is why I believe this game will go right down to the wire, thus the value is with the 7-point underdog.  That has been the case the past two times that these teams have played each other, both of which have come since 2008.  The two meetings were decided by a combined five points with a 31-27 home win by Iowa (2011) and a 21-20 home win by Pitt (2008).

Iowa leans heavily on the run, averaging 36 carries per game. Pittsburgh relies even more heavily on it, averaging 53 per game. The Panthers only throw the ball 18 times per game thus far. Iowa’s biggest strength is its run defense, which is giving up just 66 rushing yards per game and 2.3 per carry.

Iowa is 22-4 ATS in its last 26 games vs. excellent rushing teams that average 5.25 or more yards per carry. The Hawkeyes are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games vs. great offensive teams that average 37 or more points per game. Iowa is 22-8 ATS in its last 30 after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in three straight games. The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games. Iowa is 38-18-1 ATS in its last 57 games following a loss. Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win.  Bet Iowa Saturday.

20* UConn/South Florida AAC Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 46

I am taking the UNDER in this game between UConn and South Florida featuring two of the worst offenses in the country.  I look for a defensive battle in this game Friday night, which seems to be the case every time these AAC foes get together.

South Florida ranks 116th in the country out of 128 teams in total offense.  It is averaging just 300.3 total yards per game this season.  UConn has actually been worse on that side of the ball, ranking 118th in total offense at 289.3 yards per game.  If you like ugly football, then you'll love this game.

Both defenses have shown me enough to know that they are good enough to stop each other's offenses.  UConn only gave up 292 total yards last week against Boise State, which is saying a lot because the Broncos have a very good offense.  South Florida only gave up 24 points and 317 total yards to Maryland two weeks ago.  That's the same Terrapins offense that put up 37 points on West Virginia last week.

Now, back to the part where these teams always play in low-scoring games.  The winner of the last four meetings has scored 19 points or fewer.  They have combined for 23, 19, 26 and 35 points in their last four meetings, respectively.  In fact, six of their last seven meetings have seen 37 or fewer combined points.  I see no reason for that to change in 2014 with how putrid these offenses are again.

The UNDER is 8-0 in South Florida's last eight games following an over in its previous game.  The UNDER is 7-0 in South Florida's last seven games after allowing 42 points or more in its previous game.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Huskies last four games following a double-digit loss at home.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Bulls last seven vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  These five trends combine for a perfect 30-0 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Auburn/Kansas State ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 65.5

I look for this contest between No. 5 Auburn and No. 20 Kansas State to be a defensive battle tonight.  Having two weeks to prepare for one another will certainly favor the defenses in this one.

Also, even though they never play each other, both teams will be very familiar with each other.  That's because Auburn and Kansas State both run similar systems.  They both love the read-option with quarterbacks who are great runners but not the best throwers, especially Nick Marshall of the Tigers.

Kansas State's defense has practiced against its first-team offense all offseason and into the regular season as well.  That will help its D get ready for what it will face Thursday.  The same can be said for the Tigers D as they are used to seeing their first-team offense.  That familiarity will make points hard to come by as both teams will be ready for what they see.

Kansas State has played some high-powered offenses through the years with low-scoring games being the result.  They played Oregon in the 2012 Fiesta Bowl in a 17-35 loss.  They played Arkansas in the 2011 Cotton Bowl and lost 16-29.  They also played Baylor last year and lost 25-35.  As you can see, all of those final scores would up finishing under 65.5 points.

Auburn is known for having an explosive offense, but when you look at its results from last year, it's clear to see that there is some value with the UNDER.  Indeed, Auburn and its opponents finished with 65 or fewer combined points in 10 of its 14 games last year.

Stopping the run is going to be the key to this game obviously.  Well, both teams are well-equipped to do so.  The Tigers held Arkansas to just 153 rushing yards in their opener, which is a huge accomplishment because the Razorbacks are one of the best running teams in the country.  For the season, the Tigers are giving up 109 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry.

Kansas State is only giving up 87 rushing yards per game and 3.0 per carry in 2014.  This is a team that has been dominant against the run over the past five years.  Indeed, it has allowed 139 or fewer rushing yards per game in four of the five years.  It has also allowed 4.0 or fewer yards per carry in four of those five seasons.

The UNDER is 5-1-1 in Auburn's last seven games following a bye week.  I see no way the final combined score of this game exceeds 65 points tonight.  Bet the UNDER 65.5 points Thursday.

15* Penn State/Rutgers Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Penn State -3

Penn State (2-0) has been impressive in the early going. It beat UCF over in Ireland as a 2.5-point underdog by a final of 26-24 in its opener. Then, it topped Akron 21-3 at home as a 14-point favorite last week.

Rutgers (2-0) pulled off one of the bigger upsets of the season with a 41-38 win as a 7.5-point underdog in its opener at Washington State. It had a bit of a letdown last week against Howard at home, only winning by a final of 38-25.

I cannot give Rutgers that much credit for its 41-38 win at Washington State in its opener. That’s because the Cougars came back the next week and lost at Nevada to drop to 0-2 on the season, so they clearly aren’t very good this year.

That 13-point home win over Howard is pretty telling about Rutgers this year as they were a 38-point favorite in that contest. In fact, the Scarlet Knights were actually outgained 397-427 by Howard, or by 30 total yards. They arguably should have lost the game.

Penn State should have beaten UCF by more when you look at the box score. Indeed, it outgained UCF 511-246 for the game, but only won 26-24 because it committed three turnovers to try and give the game away. That +265 yardage differential couldn’t have been more impressive. This is a UCF team that played in the BCS Fiesta Bowl last year and beat Baylor 52-42. The Knights had nine starters back defensively this year as well, so to put up 511 yards against them is getting it done.

The Nittany Lions were nearly as dominant against Akron last week, and the final score was indicative of how dominant they were this time around. They won 21-3 while outgaining the Zips 425-277 for the game. The Zips are a team that I have playing in the MAC Title Game this year, so they are no pushovers. They even nearly upset Michigan on the road last year.

This would have been an even bigger blowout had the Nittany Lions not lost the turnover battle 3-0 to Akron. So, they have six turnovers already and something to work on for head coach James Franklin. If they quit turning it over, it’s scary how good this team could be.  The Nittany Lions have outgained their first two opponents 468-261.5 on average, while Rutgers had been outgained by its first two opponents 446.5-487.5.  I would argue Penn State has played the tougher schedule as well.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) – after allowing 9 points or less last game against opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game are 78-35 (69%) ATS since 1992. The Scarlet Knights are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. The Nittany Lions are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in September. Rutgers is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 home games after scoring 37 points or more last game. 

The Nittany Lions have been informed earlier this week that they will be bowl eligible this season.  That fact should ignite a fire under this team as they enter Big Ten play.  Penn State is 22-2 in its 24 previous meetings with Rutgers, including 9-0 in nine all-time road meetings.  Bet Penn State Saturday.