Winning Sports Picks

5* WISEGUY NFL *BEST BET* on Rams +4.5

5* WISEGUY NFL *BEST BET* on Patriots -7

5* WISEGUY SUPER BOWL *BEST BET* on Patriots +2 (Note: Not sure why the line feed shows -1 because I locked in at +2 well over a week ago. With that said, I like the Pats strong regardless and the play will be graded according to the -1 line.)

Bottom Line: While Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson are good, Brady and Belichick are better. The Patriots have lost their last two Super Bowls, but that's even more reason to back them. I think they'll want this one just a little bit more as a result. If you watched the NFC Championship, you know how fortunate Seattle is to be here. Russell Wilson struggled despite getting plenty of help from the running game. New England's run defense is a lot better than Green Bay's, which means Wilson will likely be asked to outduel Brady, and the odds aren't in favor of that. Seattle has been excellent offensively this season averaging 375 yards per game. But, New England is 10-1 ATS the last 3 seasons versus teams that average 375 ypg or more, and it has won these games by an average of 16.7 points. Pound the Pats.

4* MAJOR AFC CHAMPIONSHIP *SUREFIRE* on Colts +7

Bottom Line: The Patriots have been a bad play in the postseason. They are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 playoff games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Conference Championships contests. New England crushed Indy 42-20 in November, but the Colts are on a 34-16 ATS run when out for revenge for a loss where they gave up 28 points or more. The Indy defense has been lights out in the playoffs. That's a great sign because the Colts are 6-0 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games under coach Pagano. They've won by an average of 8.3 points in this situation. The Pats are 0-6 ATS in home games after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game under coach Belichick. They have won in this spot but only by an average of 1.3 points. Grab the points.

5* WISEGUY NFC CHAMPIONSHIP *BEST BET* on Packers +7.5

Bottom Line: Green Bay lost 36-16 on this field clear back in the season opener, but a lot has changed since then. With a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, I expect Aaron Rodgers and company to take the Seahawks right down to the wire. The biggest thing that has changed is Green Bay's run defense. The Packers allowed Seattle to run for 207 yards in the first meeting, but they have held their last 9 opponents to an average of 92.9 yards. Not surprisingly, they are 8-1 during this span. Seattle has given up only 15.9 ppg this season, but the Packers are 9-1 ATS all-time versus teams that allow 17.0 ppg or less under coach McCarthy. Green Bay won these games by an average of 4.3 points. Pound the Packers.

5* WISEGUY DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS *BEST BET* on Broncos -7

Bottom Line: Indy is 0-6 ATS in road games played in the second half of the season versus teams with a win percentage of 60-75% over the last 3 seasons, and it has lost these games by an average of 24.9 points. Denver is on a 21-10 ATS run as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and a 16-3 ATS run when playing with 2 weeks of rest or more. Pound the Broncos.

4* MAJOR NFC DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS *SUREFIRE* on Cowboys +6

Bottom Line: Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on grass and 6-0 ATS in its last 6 road games when playing with 6 days of rest or less. The Cowboys are 20-9 ATS as an underdog under coach Garrett, including 9-2 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.

5* WISEGUY NFC PLAYOFFS GAME OF THE YEAR on Seahawks -10.5

Bottom Line: The Seahawks enter the playoffs on a 6-game win streak, which is significant because they are 6-0 ATS after 5 or more consecutive wins under coach Carroll.  Seattle is 7-0 ATS the last 2 seasons after 2 straight wins of 10 points or more. It is also 8-0 ATS the last 3 seasons after averaging 6.0 yards per play or more in each of its last 2 games. Pound Seattle.

4* MAJOR AFC DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS *SUREFIRE* on Ravens +7

Bottom Line: Baltimore has been money in the postseason. It's 6-0 ATS in its last 6 playoff games and 5-0 ATS in its last 5 road playoff games. The road team has been the play in this matchup as it is 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Ravens are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings in New England. Additionally, Baltimore is 8-0 ATS the last 3 seasons in road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.

5* WISEGUY WILD CARD ROUND GAME OF THE YEAR on Bengals +4

Bottom Line: The Bengals lost 27-0 in Indianapolis in October, but that won't keep me from pounding them given the strong history in their favor. Playing road teams that check in off a road loss and are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent has resulted in a 76-36 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Additionally, the Bengals are 6-0 ATS in road games when out for revenge for a loss where they were held to less than 9 points under coach Lewis. They have won in this spot by an average of 5.8 points. This Cincy team has failed to make it out of the wild card round each of the past 3 seasons, and that provides added motivation. Pound the Bengals.

5* WISEGUY NFL PLAYOFFS *BEST BET* on Ravens +4

Bottom Line: The Ravens are showing some nice value catching better than a field goal. Prior to each team winning impressively in this season's two regular-season meetings, we had seen 5 straight and 9 of 11 matchups in the series decided by 3 points or less. The Ravens are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 wild card games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road playoff games. Pound Baltimore.

4* MAJOR NFL *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Packers -7

Bottom Line: The Packers do an exceptional job of taking care of the football, and that spells doom for Detroit, which is 0-11 ATS since 1992 in games played in the 2nd half of the season versus teams who average 1 or fewer turnovers per game. It has lost these games by 18.2 points on average. The Lions are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games on grass. Green Bay is 6-0 ATS in home games versus mistake prone teams that average 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 3 seasons. It is 6-0 ATS this season after playing its last game on the road. The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

5* WISEGUY NFL GAME OF THE WEEK on Panthers +3

Bottom Line: I like the Panthers catching a field goal given how successful they've been in the series of late. They are 3-1 in the last 4 meetings with the loss coming by only 2 points. They are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings with neither loss during this stretch coming by more than 2 points. The Panthers are starting to resemble the team that went 12-4 last season, holding their last 3 foes to 17 points or fewer. Carolina is 58-25 ATS all-time versus teams that allow 24 PPG or more and 56-36 ATS all-time when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent. The Falcons are 12-25 ATS since 1992 in home games following a double-digit victory. The Falcons are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a win of more than 14 points and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Pound the Panthers.

4* MAJOR NFL *ODDSMAKER ERROR* on Bears +7

Bottom Line: Odds makers have missed the mark. The Bears are 8-2 in their last 10 against the Vikings and haven't lost by more than 7 points during this stretch. Playing against favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points that check in off a road defeat has resulted in a 28-8 ATS record since 1983, provided they have a win percentage of 40-49% and are playing a team with a win rate of 25-40%. This rare system is 3-0 ATS the last 5 seasons.

5* WISEGUY MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Bengals +4

Bottom Line: Cincy has been awesome at home in recent years so the fact it has lost its last 2 home games in blowout fashion isn't sitting well. The Bengals also don't like the fact they've been blown out twice in primetime. I expect them to be the more motivated team tonight as a result. The Bengals are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home games and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a winning road record. The Broncos are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday Night Football games. Pound Cincy.

5* WISEGUY NFL *PUBLIC MASSACRE* GAME OF THE YEAR on Raiders +6

Bottom Line: Playing against any team that is coming off an upset victory at home, provided they have a winning record on the season, has resulted in a 33-13 (72%) ATS record the last 5 seasons. Additionally, playing against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that have won 2 of their last 3 games has resulted in an 83-38 (69%) ATS record the last 31 seasons, provided they have a win percentage of 51-60% and are playing a losing team in the 2nd half of the season. Pound the Raiders.

5* WISEGUY DOUBLE DIGIT BLOOD BATH GAME OF THE WEEK on Dolphins -6.5

Bottom Line: The Vikings have covered the number in each of their last 4 but 3 of those were at home. They are just 2-5 on the road this season and in a historically bad spot. Consider that they are 6-16 ATS in road games after covering the number in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games the last 22 seasons. After getting taken out being the woodshed the past 2 weeks, I expect Miami to respond at home. Pound the Dolphins.

5* WISEGUY MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Saints -3

Bottom Line: New Orleans has way more to play for as it is still in the playoff hunt. Plus, I'm not hesitating to side with Drew Brees over Jay Cutler. Both teams have struggled defensively, but New Orleans has the edge with the far superior offense. The Bears are 0-7 ATS in the 2nd half of the season the last 3 seasons versus strong offensive teams that average 350 ypg or more. They have lost these games by an average of 13.2 points. They are also 0-8 ATS in the 2nd half of the season the last 3 seasons versus good passing teams that average 7 or more yards per pass attempt. They have lost these games by 18.0 points on average. Pound the Saints.

4* MAJOR NFC WEST *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on 49ers +10

Bottom Line: This line is an overreaction to San Francisco's bad loss to the Raiders. The 49ers clearly suffered a letdown in the aftermath of losing a big game with Seattle. This is a proud 49ers team. Harbaugh is proud. Kaepernick is proud. The list goes on and on. This very well could be the end of the Harbaugh era and the end of the 49ers' run of NFC championship games, but they won't go down without a fight and would like nothing more than to keep Seattle from winning the division. Playing road teams off a road loss that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent has resulted in a 73-35 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Playing underdogs or pickems in the 2nd half of the season that are off an upset loss on the road, provided they have a win percentage of 51-60%, has resulted in a 25-6 ATS record since 1983. Lastly, the 49ers are 9-0 ATS under Harbaugh when checking in with 2 losses in a 3-game game. They have won these 9 by an average of 13.6 points.

5* WISEGUY NFL DOUBLE DIGIT BLOOD BATH GAME OF THE YEAR on Chiefs -10

Bottom Line: The Chiefs will be out for some serious revenge against an Oakland team that defeated them 24-20 Nov. 20. That loss started a 3-game skid for the Chiefs that has them on the brink of falling out of the AFC playoff hunt. I expect them to take their frustrations out all over an inferior opponent in Arrowhead Sunday. Playing home favorites of 3.5-10 points that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent and are also coming off an upset loss has resulted in a 65-28 (70%) ATS record since 1983. Recently, this system is 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. Pound the Chiefs.

5* WISEGUY NFL UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK on Bills +5.5

Bottom Line: Buffalo has an excellent chance of pulling off this upset. Green Bay is 3-3 on the road and would have covered this number in just 1 road game this season. The Packers have never won in Buffalo where they are 0-5. I like having the veteran Kyle Orton in this spot. He knows a thing of two about going toe to toe with Aaron Rodgers and coming out on top. While with Kansas City in 2011, he ended Green Bay's then 19-game win streak. This is also a tough situational spot for Green Bay, hitting the road after playing the Monday night game. The Packers are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday nighter. Pound the Bills.

5* WISEGUY Thursday Night Football *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Cardinals +4.5

Bottom Line: The Cardinals found a way to get it done in Kansas City Sunday despite playing less than their best on both sides of the football. That performance against an AFC foe actually bodes well for us as the Cards are 7-0 ATS off a non-conference game under Arians and 7-0 ATS after allowing 6.5 or more yards per play in their previous game under Arians. The Rams will be out for revenge for last month's 31-14 loss in Arizona, but they are 11-30 ATS since 1992 when looking for same-season revenge. Plus, Fisher's squads are just 15-33 ATS all-time when laying 3.5 to 7.0 at home. Playing against home favorites off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent has resulted in a 22-4 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Pound Arizona.

5* WISEGUY MNF *BEST BET* on Falcons +14

Bottom Line: Green Bay is being overvalued at home against an Atlanta team that has turned the corner. The Falcons have played good football over their last five games, going 3-2 during this stretch with the 2 losses coming by a total of 3 points to very good Detroit and Cleveland teams. Atlanta's improvement has come from the defensive side of the football as it has allowed an average of only 19.5 points over its last four games. The Falcons are 8-0 ATS the last 2 seasons after allowing 6 or more yards per play in 2 consecutive games. They have won by an average of 7.1 points in these games. Playing against favorites of 10.5 or more points in the 2nd half of the season that have beaten the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games has resulted in an 11-0 ATS record the last 5 seasons. These teams have been favored by 13.3 points on average but have won by just 8.8 points on average. Lastly, the Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Green Bay. Pound Atlanta.

4* MAJOR SUNDAY NFC *BEST BET* on Redskins +2.5

Bottom Line: Playing against favorites that have covered the spread in 3 consecutive games or more, provided they have a win percentage of 40% to 49% and are playing a losing team, has resulted in a 39-15 ATS record over the last 31 years. Washington is a better team than its record looks and has been at its best this season with McCoy getting the snaps. Washington is the superior team statistically on both sides of the football, ranking 11th in both total offense and defense while the Rams rank 25th in total offense and 14th in total defense. In the games St. Louis has won, it has been aided by a plus-7 turnover margin. Washington has a good job of taking care of the football with McCoy in the game. He has just a 1.1 interception percentage. The Rams are just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games versus teams that average 6.0 yards per play or more. They have lost to these teams by an average of 19.6 points.

4* MAJOR AFC NORTH *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Steelers +3.5

Bottom Line: After 2 losses in 3 games, the Steelers need this game. Recent history says they'll respond as they are 7-0 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. The Steelers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games versus winning teams and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games versus teams with a winning home record. Pittsburgh is 11-2 in its last 13 trips to Cincinnati. In a big game, I'm going with Big Ben over Dalton. Grab the points.

5* WISEGUY AFC NON-DIVISION GAME OF THE YEAR on Browns +4

Bottom Line: Playing December home underdogs or pickems that are coming off a road blowout loss of at least 14 points has resulted in a 78-42 against the spread record over the last 31 years. The Browns are still very much alive in the AFC playoff race, and I'm expecting Brian Hoyer to rise to the occasion and silence all the Johnny Manziel talk. The Colts have one of the worst passing defenses in the NFL, and Hoyer has been able to take advantage against such teams going 14-5-1 ATS in his last 20 games versus teams that give up 6.1-8.1 passing yards per attempt. Additionally, Hoyer is on a 9-0 ATS run in games when the total of 45.5-52.5 and has led his teams to victories by an average of 15.9 points in these games. Pound Cleveland.

4* MAJOR TNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Cowboys -3.5

Bottom Line: Chicago is 0-6 ATS the last 3 seasons versus good ball-control teams that average 32 minutes of possession time or more per game. The Bears are 0-6 ATS in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons versus good offensive teams that average 350 yards per game or more. They are 0-7 ATS in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons versus good passing teams that average 7 or more passing yards per attempt. Chicago is 0-8 SU and ATS in games Jay Cutler plays when the total is 48-55. It has lost these games by an average of 20.1 points. The Bears are also 0-8 ATS after having won 2 of their last 3 games under coach Trestman, losing these contests by an average of 15.5 points.

5* WISEGUY MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Jets +7

Bottom Line: The Jets were brutally embarrassed by the Bills last Monday, which is all the more reason to back them here. Playing teams off a loss of 28 points or more that have been outscored by an average of 4.0 ppg or more on the season has resulted in a 63-32 ATS record the last 10 seasons. The Jets were held to 3 points last Monday but are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after being held to less than 15 points. Miami put up 36 in Denver but is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points. The Dolphins are 9-21-1 ATS in the last 31 meetings. Bet the Jets.

4* MAJOR *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Packers -3

Bottom Line: The Packers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. They are 9-0 ATS in home games played in the 2nd half of the season versus teams with a win percentage greater than .750 since 1992 and have defeated these teams by an average of 14.0 points. The Patriots are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games on grass while the Packers are 6-0 ATS on grass this season.

4* MAJOR *PUBLIC MASSACRE* on Falcons +1.5

Bottom Line: Arizona's confidence took a hit with last week's crushing defeat in Seattle. Now it has to make the cross-country trip to face an Atlanta team that has been really good at home since Matt Ryan starting manning the controls. With Stanton starting the last 2 games, the Arizona offense has managed only 17 points. Playing against teams with a win percentage of .750 or higher that have covered 3 of their last 4 games has resulted in a 144-95 ATS record the last 10 seasons.

4* MAJOR *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Saints +5

Bottom Line: Despite a 4-7 record and 3 consecutive SU and ATS losses at home, the Saints will be fully invested in this contest. They are still tied for 1st in the NFC South so they have no reason to hang their head. The Saints have been extremely competitive on the road this season. They are 1-4 away from home but 3 of the losses have come by 3 points or less. The Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. The Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 versus a team with a losing record. New Orleans is 21-9 ATS versus good offensive teams that average 24.0 ppg or more under Sean Payton. It has defeated these teams by an average of 8.0 points.

4* MAJOR EARLY *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Chargers +7

Bottom Line: This line is an overreaction to San Diego's 0-6 ATS slide coupled with Baltimore's back-to-back ATS wins. The fact of the matter is, San Diego can move into a tie for 1st in the AFC West with a win and Denver loss so it has plenty to play for. The Chargers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games versus a team with a winning home record. They are also on an impressive 57-37 ATS run as a road dog of 7 points or less since 1992.

5* WISEGUY NFL LOOK-AHEAD GAME OF THE YEAR on Bucs +4

Bottom Line: This is a prime look-ahead spot for Cincy. The Bengals have a big showdown with division rival Pittsburgh next week, which makes it extremely tough for them to get up for the lowly Bucs here. Tampa Bay hasn't quit competing. It has outgained each of its last 4 opponents, which is a great sign, and 3 of those games were played on the road. The Bucs are 0-5 at home this season so they will be leaving it all on the field in hopes of removing the goose egg. Fortunately for them, they catch the Bengals at the perfect time. Home underdogs or pickems with a win percentage of .250 or less are 121-65 ATS since 1983, provided they have failed to cover 2 out of their last 3 games and are up against a winning team. Pound the Bucs.

4* MAJOR NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on 49ers pk

Bottom Line: Riding high off a big 19-3 win over the first place Cardinals, expect a letdown from Seattle as it hits the road on a short week. This game is all about payback for the 49ers, who will be out to avenge last season's tough-to-swallow loss in the NFC Championship game. The Seahawks are on a 1-9 ATS slide in road games following a dominant defensive performance where they allowed 6 points or less. They are 16-33-3 ATS in their last 52 games following a win of more than 14 points. The 49ers are 26-9-3 ATS in their last 38 games following an ATS loss, and the home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Lastly, the 49ers are 17-2 SU and 15-3-1 ATS when Kaepernick is under center in games when the line is -4.5 to +2.5. Bet San Francisco.

5* WISEGUY Thanksgiving *BEST BET* on Lions -7

Bottom Line: The Lions lost 34-9 in New England Sunday, but they are an impressive 29-14 ATS after a loss of 21 points or more since 1992. The Bears have responded with back-to-back wins following a 3-game skid, but they are 0-7 ATS all-time under Trestman after winning 2 times in a 3-game span. They have lost by an average of 15.3 points in these 7 contests. The Bears are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings and 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Detroit. Pound the Lions.

5* WISEGUY MNF GAME OF THE MONTH on Saints -2.5

Bottom Line: New Orleans got nothing out of its running game last week, and the result wasn't good. While the Saints are a pass-first team, they tend to be at their best offensively when they have a little more balance than they did against the Bengals. They rushed for just 75 yards in that game and weren't at all satisfied with the result. However, the Saints are a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games the last 3 seasons after being held to 75 rushing yards or less. They have bounce back to win by an average of 19.5 points in this spot. The Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games, 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win and 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Pound New Orleans.

5* WISEGUY SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL GAME OF THE YEAR on Giants +3.5

Bottom Line: This is a problematic spot for Dallas, which is playing a true road game for the first time in over a month and is no doubt already thinking about a Thanksgiving showdown with the Eagles. The Cowboys have had a week off following their overseas trip, and while a bye week can be a good thing this time of year, it can also be a bad thing. I think it's the latter in this case because the Cowboys aren't chomping at the bit to face a team they defeated by double digits Oct. 19. I really think the Giants will treat this game, and their season finale against Philadelphia, like the Super Bowl. The Giants are an impressive 29-17 ATS when out for revenge under coach Coughlin. They are also 16-7 ATS under their coach when out for revenge for a loss where they gave up 28 points or more. Dallas is a weak 19-32 ATS when laying points with Romo under center. Playing against road favorites off a win by more than 10 points that allow 18-23 ppg has resulted in a 63-32 ATS record since 1983 if they are up against a team that gives up 23-27 ppg. Pound the G-Men.

4* MAJOR NFC NON-DIVISION *SUREFIRE* on Redskins +10

Bottom Line: Playing against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that have won 2 of their last 3 has resulted in a 74-37 ATS record since 1983, provided they are playing a losing team and carry a win percentage of .510 to .600. Washington is a much better football team than it showed last week, and it will be incredibly motivated by that pathetic performance. The 49ers really haven't been a blowout threat this season with just 2 wins by double digits. They have won by more than 10 points just 1 time in their last 9 games.

4* MAJOR SUNDAY NFL LATE AFTERNOON *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Seahawks -6.5

Bottom Line: Look for Seattle's 12th Man to come up big as the Seahawks end Arizona's 6-game win streak. In many ways, this is a must-win game for Seattle so it will be extremely focused. The Seahawks take pride in their home field advantage so last season's home loss to Arizona can't be sitting well. Stanton has performed well, but the Cardinals aren't the same team without Carson Palmer. It catches up with them here. The Seahawks are 8-0 ATS the last 3 seasons as a home favorite of 7 points or less and have won these games 18.1 points on average.

4* MAJOR NFC NORTH *SUREFIRE* on Vikings +10

Bottom Line: Green Bay hasn't been the same force on the road where it is 2-3 and could easily be 1-4. The Vikings are 8-0 ATS in home games in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. They are 11-1 ATS in home games since 1992 versus teams that outscore their opponents by 10.0 ppg or more on the season.

4* MAJOR SUNDAY NFL EARLY *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Lions +7.5

Bottom Line: This line is an overreaction to New England's back-to-back-to-back blowout wins over the Bears, Broncos and Colts. The Lions are the best defensive team in the NFL, and I expect their defense to keep them in this game. Playing underdogs or pickems that average 18-23 ppg and are up against a team that averages 27 ppg or more, provided the play on team was held to 9 points or less last game, has resulted in a 38-15 ATS record since 1983. These teams have been underdogs of 7.4 points on average but have lost by just 3.4 points on average.

5* WISEGUY NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Raiders +7.5

Bottom Line: Following a big upset victory over the defending Super Bowl champs, the Chiefs are in a letdown situation, especially with the tendency for them to look ahead to next week's showdown with Denver. Playing against road teams that are coming off an upset victory on their home field, provided they have a winning record on the season, has resulted in a 106-53 ATS record since 1983. Zooming in, playing against any team that is coming off an upset victory at home that has a winning record on the season has resulted in a 31-12 ATS record over the last 5 seasons. Pound the Raiders.

4* Major MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Titans +7

Bottom Line: Playing against a team off a loss against the spread that has a win percentage of 51% to 60% and is matched up against a team with win percentage of 25% or worse has resulted in a 73-37 ATS record since 1983. The Steelers laid an egg in New York last week, and we were all over it as that performance was nothing new. They are only 3-6 in their last 9 contests in the second half of their schedule versus teams with a win percentage below .300. The Steelers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Tennessee, and the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

4* Major NFC North *SUREFIRE* on Bears -2.5

Bottom Line: Look for the Bears to show up after being brutally embarrassed on national TV last Sunday night. Chicago is 13-4 ATS since 1992 following 2 consecutive road defeats. It is 8-0 ATS since 1992 in home games after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings, and the Vikings are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Chicago.

4* Major Non-Conference *BEST BET* on Rams +10.5

Bottom Line: This is a tough spot for Denver playing a 3rd road game in as many weeks. It hosts the 6-4 Dolphins next week and the tendency will be to look ahead. The Rams didn't play to their ability last week, but I'm expecting them to get a boost from the insertion of Shaun Hill, who is 7-3 ATS in his last 10 home games in the NFL. The Rams are an outstanding 9-1 ATS at home in the 2nd half of the season versus excellent offensive teams averaging 6.0 yards per play or more since 1992.

5* Wiseguy AFC *BEST BET* on Texans +3.5

Bottom Line: Look for Cleveland to suffer a letdown after last week's gigantic win over the Bengals. The Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 14 points and 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games versus a team with a losing record. The Texans are making the switch to Mallet at the right time. He's very familiar with Bill O'Brien's offense from their time together in New England, and he's had an extra week to get all the first team snaps. The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Cleveland and are catching the Browns at a good time.

5* Wiseguy NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Giants +4.5

Bottom Line: Look for San Francisco to suffer a letdown after last Sunday's huge overtime win in New Orleans. Playing against road teams with a winning record that are off an upset victory has resulted in a 262-181 ATS record since 1983. Additionally, playing on teams that have been beaten by 49 points or more against the spread in their last five games, provided they are playing a conference opponent, has resulted in an 81-44 ATS record the last 10 seasons. The Giants have had San Francisco's number and are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings as a result. Pound the Giants.

5* Wiseguy Thursday Night Football Game of the Year on Dolphins -4

Bottom Line: According to the numbers, and the eye test, Miami is the better team, and it will be extremely hungry after last week's loss to Detroit in the closing seconds. It will draw added motivation from the thumping in received in Buffalo back in September. At Game 8 or later, playing teams like Miami that have outgained their opponent by an average of 0.4 to 1.0 yards per play has resulted in a 59-26 ATS record since 1983 if they are up against a team with a +/- 0.4 yards per play differential, provided the play on team was outgained by 100 yards or more last game. The Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a winning road record, and the favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Pound Miami.

5* WISEGUY MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Panthers +7

Bottom Line: The Panthers have suffered through a rough stretch but aren't about to close up shop as they are just a game back in the division entering Week 10. The Panthers played the Thursday game last week so they've had a few extra days to refocus. Mark Sanchez stepped in and did well enough to help the Eagles outlast Houston, but Philly is not better off with him under center. The Eagles will also greatly miss middle linebacker DeMeco Ryans who tore his right Achilles tendon last Sunday. Playing underdogs of 3.5-10 points that have been held to 14 points or fewer in 2 consecutive games has resulted in a 33-10 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Playing against teams with a win percentage of 75% or higher that have covered the number in 3 of their last 4 games has resulted in a 142-91 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Pound the Panthers.

4* Major NFL *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Jets +6

Bottom Line: The Steelers have looked good in recent weeks with Big Ben playing at a high level, but I expect them to get all they want and more from the Jets. The Steelers are 15-26 ATS in road games following a win under Tomlin. They are 10-19 ATS under Tomlin after a victory of 14 or more points. Additionally, playing underdogs or pickems with a win percentage of 25% or worse that check in off 7 or more consecutive losses has resulted in a 112-67 ATS record since 1983. The Jets are way better than a 1-8 team. They've been close to beating some of the best teams in the league this season and would have had the ball bounced their way a few more times. I like their chances of knocking Pittsburgh off its high horse.

4* Major NFL *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on 49ers +6

Bottom Line: This game means more to the 49ers, who are third in their division. The Saints will be just fine if they lose since no team in the NFC South has a winning record. The Niners are 7-0 ATS under Harbaugh following a stretch of 2 losses in a 3-game span. They have won these 7 by an average of 16.1 points. The Niners are also 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons in road games versus teams that give up 24.0 ppg or more, 7-0 ATS the last 3 seasons in road games versus teams that allow 7.0 yards per pass attempt or more and 7-0 ATS in road games the last 3 seasons versus teams that allow a completion percentage of 61% or higher. The 49ers are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings with no loss by more than 3 points.

5* Wiseguy Blowout Game of the Year on Lions -2.5

Bottom Line: Miami has been rolling, but it runs into a buzzsaw in Detroit. The Lions are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 off a bye, and I expect the league's top defense to be stout with the extra prep time. The Phins forced 4 turnovers last week and didn't commit one, but they are 1-14 ATS since 1992 after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or more. They have lost by an average of 12.4 points in this situation. Additionally, at Game 8 or later backing a team that holds opponents to 14-18 ppg that is up against a team that allows 18-23 ppg has resulted in a 45-19 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Pound the Lions.

4* Major NFL Thursday Night Football *SUREFIRE* on Browns +7

Bottom Line: The Browns aren't getting the respect they deserve from odds makers. They have only 1 loss of more than 7 points this season. They have wins over New Orleans and Pittsburgh and lost to Baltimore by only 2 points. Teams have been a phenomenal play with Brian Hoyer under center the past 5 seasons. They are 17-6 ATS with him on the field, including 8-3 ATS on the road and 5-1 ATS as a road dog. Hoyer is also 8-1 ATS versus teams like the Bengals that give up 20.4-26.4 ppg during this span. The Cincy defense hasn't lived up to expectations, ranking 30th in the NFL with 394.98 ypg allowed. That bodes well for the underdog, which is 11-2-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.

5* Wiseguy MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Giants +3.5

Bottom Line: The Colts fit into a negative situation that I want no part of. Consider that playing against road favorites that have covered the number 5 or 6 times in a 7-game span has resulted in a 61-30 ATS record since 1983 provided they have a win percentage of 60% to 75% and are matched up against a team that have a losing record. The Giants have been a different team at home where they are 2-1 SU and ATS and could be undefeated (led in the 4th against the 7-1 Cardinals). The Colts haven't been the same team on the road. Outside of an easy win at Jacksonville, they've struggled in their other 3 road games. They were blown out in Pittsburgh last week, trailed Denver 31-10 in the 4th before it called off the dogs and nearly blew a 24-0 lead in Houston. Pound New York.

4* Major NFL False Favorite on Chargers +2.5

Bottom Line: The wrong team is favored here. The Chargers have lost their last 2 but those were to a couple of good teams. The loss in Denver was a really tough spot (on the road in a short week). Because the Chargers played the Thursday game last week, they've had 3 extra days to prepare for this battle and the extra time should treat them well. The Chargers are still 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games. November road teams that are off a road loss are 70-26 ATS the last 10 seasons. Bet the Bolts.

4* Major Letdown Game of the Week on Jaguars +11.5

Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from Cincy following last week's emotional win over Baltimore. The Bengals play the Thursday game next week against division rival Cleveland and will have a tough time not looking ahead to that contest. Playing against home favorites that have a winning record on the season and are off an upset win at home over a division rival has resulted in a 22-4 ATS record since 1983.

5* Wiseguy NFL Underdog Shocker Game of the Year on Jets +10.5

Bottom Line: The Jets are a much better football team than their 1-7 record suggests, but it's that 1-7 record that is allowing us to catch a great number. The Jets played Green Bay to a 7-point game on the road and led that game 21-3. They've also played Detroit to a 7-point game, New England to a 2-point game and would have played Denver to a 7-point game had it not been for a pick-six at the end. This is a game the Jets have a good shot to win straight up because the strength of their defense matches up well with the strength of the Kansas City offense. The Chiefs rely heavily on their running attack, but it will be tough sledding against a New York stop unit that holds opponents to 85.4 ypg on the ground. Road dogs or pickems that have lost 7 straight or more are 66-33 ATS since 1983. Week 9 or later underdogs or pickems that have lost 7 straight or more are 91-44 ATS since 1983. November road dogs or pickems off 5 or more consecutive defeats are 42-14 ATS since 1983. Pound the Jets.

4* Major NFL Thursday Night Football *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Saints -3

Bottom Line: When the line is +3 to -3, playing against home teams that are outscored by an average of 5 points or more in the first half has resulted in a 29-8 ATS record the last 5 seasons if they scored 14 points or less last game. The Panthers don't have enough offense to keep up with a New Orleans side that ranks 2nd in the NFL in total offense. The Panthers rank 24th, and they haven't been good enough defensively to offset their offensive shortcomings. They've allowed an average of 31.2 points over their last six games. Field position will also likely go New Orleans' way. The Saints are 7-0 ATS lifetime in games played in Week 9 or later versus poor punt coverage teams that allow 12 yards per return or more under coach Payton. They have won by an average of 18.6 points in this spot.

5* Wiseguy MNF GAME OF THE MONTH on Redskins +10.5

Bottom Line: The Redskins picked up a much-needed win last week and carry that momentum into Dallas tonight. With a showdown against 6-1 Arizona on deck, the Cowboys are in a look-ahead spot. Dallas has been an awful investment against losing teams at 8-20 ATS in the last 28. It is even 4-10 ATS in its last 14 home games versus teams with a losing road record. The Cowboys are an unreliable 11-23 ATS as a favorite under Jason Garrett, including 7-16 ATS as a home favorite. Washington has been the play in the series as it is on a 7-1 ATS run. It is also on a 6-1 ATS run in Dallas. This is a lot of points for the 7th-ranked defense in the league to be catching. I like Washington to give the Cowboys a game tonight. Pound the Redskins.

5* Wiseguy AFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Bengals +1

Bottom Line: The Bengals haven't lost in their last 12 regular-season home games and are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home contests going back further. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games versus teams with winning road records, 6-0 ATS the last 2 seasons in home games following a game where they finished under the total and 8-0 ATS the last 3 seasons after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. The Ravens are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Playing against favorites that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent has resulted in a 34-9 ATS record the last 10 seasons if they are coming off covers as a favorite in their last 2 games. Playing against road teams that are off a win of 21 points or more has resulted in a 35-12 ATS record the last 10 seasons if they are up against a team that scored 3 points or less in the 1st half last game. Home underdogs or pickems that average 5.4 yards per play or more are 35-11 ATS since 1983 if they've given up 400 total yards or more in their last 2 games. Pound Cincinnati.

4* Major Sunday NFL *BLOOD BATH* on Falcons +4

Bottom Line: Atlanta is 2-5 but isn't about to throw in the towel. It's just one game behind division leader Carolina in the win column, and there's a whole lot of football left to be played. The Falcons are 7-0 ATS since 1992 in games played away from home following a road blowout loss of 21 points or more. They are 6-0 ATS the last 2 seasons after allowing 6 or more yards per play in 2 consecutive games. The Lions are 0-6 ATS the last 3 seasons after having won 3 of their last 4 games. Bet Atlanta.

4* Major NFL Thursday Night Football *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Broncos -8.5

Bottom Line: This is a tough spot for the Chargers, playing in Denver's high altitude on a short week against a Broncos team that is hitting on all cylinders. Despite San Diego's 5-game win streak coming to an end last week, the public is still high on the Chargers and will be tempted to take them considering they haven't lost by more than 8 points in any of the past 4 meetings. San Diego won at Denver during the regular season last year, and the Broncos will be out to make sure that doesn't happen again. The Chargers played the Broncos to a 7-point game in Denver in last season's playoffs, but the Broncos led that game 17-0 in the 3rd quarter before calling off the dogs. In a game involving teams who outpass opponents by 1.5 yards per pass or more, you want to take home favorites provided they held their last opponent to 5.5 yards per pass or less. That's because doing so has resulted in a 25-4 ATS record since 1983. Teams fitting this scenario have won by an average of 14.4 points. Additionally, Denver is 19-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average of 13.2 points. Bet the Broncos.

4* Major NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Texans +3.5

Bottom Line: The Texans have been more impressive than Pittsburgh this season. They've lost their last 2 but those came on the road in OT to 6-1 Dallas and at home by 5 to 5-2 Indianapolis. Because Houston played the Thursday game last week, it has had an extra three days to prepare. The extra prep time gives the edge to J.J. Watt and the Houston defense. Watt has four sacks and leads the league in QB hits with 20. Ben Roethlisberger has already been sacked 17 times and looks to be a sack-fumble waiting to happen in this one. While I'm paying a little extra for the hook (because I hate kissing my sister), I still like the Texans at +3 (the largely available line) so the following system applies. When the line is +3 to -3, playing against home teams that allowed 30 points or more last game has resulted in a 64-30 ATS record since 1983 if they are matched up against an opponent that's off a loss of 6 points or less. This system tightens up to 24-8 ATS the last 10 seasons. Bet Houston.

5* Wiseguy NFC East Game of the Month on Giants +7

Bottom Line: This line is inflated due to New York's poor showing last week and Dallas' big win in Seattle. This has become a huge rivalry game in the NFC East. Both teams know each other well, and I fully expect this one to go right down to the wire. Each of the last 4 meetings have been decided by 7 points or less with the last 3 being decided by 5 or less. Also, 8 of the last 10 have been decided by 7 points or fewer. Underdogs or pickems that were held to 9 points or less last game are 36-13 ATS since 1983 if they average 18-23 ppg on the season and are taking on a team that averages 27 ppg or more. The dog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the Giants are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 at Dallas. Pound New York.

4* Major AFC *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Bengals +3

Bottom Line: The Bengals haven't performed well on the defensive side of the football the past 2 weeks and went 0-1-1 as a result. After a disappointing sister-kissing performance, they'll be ready to go. They crushed the Colts 42-28 last season, and I'm confident they're still the better team. Cincy is 11-1 ATS since 1992 after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games and has won by an average of 2.7 points in this situation while holding foes to just 19.7 points. The Bengals are also 9-1 ATS in road games after gaining 450 or more total yards in their previous game under coach Lewis and have won by an average of 5.6 points in this spot. When the line is +3 to -3, plays against teams like Indy that are off 2 straight dominating performances where they had 34+ minutes of possession time and 24+ first downs has resulted in a 26-8 ATS record since 1983. Bet the Bengals.

5* Wiseguy NFL Letdown Game of the Year on Falcons +7.5

Bottom Line: This is a huge letdown spot for Baltimore, which has won 4 of 5 and played flawless football versus Tampa Bay last week. With a big division game at Cincinnati on deck, I see the Ravens looking right past an Atlanta team that has dropped 3 straight. We are getting the Falcons at a great number because of their recent results. Consider that October underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points are 24-7 ATS the last 10 seasons after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games. The Ravens are on a 0-4-1 ATS slide following a game where they covered the spread and a 0-3-1 ATS slide when they check in off a victory of more than 14 points. The Falcons are on a 14-5 ATS run when coming off a double-digit defeat. Atlanta's defense has let it down to this point, but I expect its best performance of the season here given its level of motivation. The Falcons are one of the most explosive teams in the NFL and will have enough fire power to keep this one within the number. Pound Atlanta.

5* Wiseguy NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month on Jets +10

Bottom Line: The Jets haven't covered a spread all season and are being undervalued as a result. Playing road dogs or pickems after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, provided they are a terrible team winning 25% or less of their games on the season, has resulted in an 18-5 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Additionally, October underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 24-7 ATS the last 10 seasons. The Jets know the Patriots well, which is a big reason why 3 of the past 4 meetings have been decided by 3 points. Pound New York.

5* Wiseguy MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Rams +4

Bottom Line: Playing against teams like the 49ers that carry a win percentage of 51% to 60% has resulted in a 130-80 ATS record since 1983 if they are matched up against a team with a win percentage of 25% or worse. Additionally, playing on home teams that have lost 2 of their last 3 against the spread has resulted in a 127-75 ATS record since 1983 if they have a win percentage of 25% or worse and are playing a winning team. The focus in San Francisco seems to be on the team's relationship with coach Harbaugh, not football. Plus, the Niners travel to defending AFC champ Denver next week and will have a hard time not looking ahead to that game. This is a great spot for the home team to pull off an upset. Pound the Rams.

5* Wiseguy AFC Game of the Year on Raiders +7.5

Bottom Line: Firing the head coach makes a statement. It sends the message that nobody's job is safe. Fueled by an 0-4 start and having had a bye week to gear up, I expect to see a completely different Oakland Raiders team Sunday. Playing on underdogs or pickems that average 17.0 ppg or less has resulted in a 55-26 ATS record the last 10 seasons, provided they gave up 35 points or more last time out. Teams fitting this scenario have been underdogs of 7.7 points on average but have lost by just 4.4 points. The Raiders have been a good bounce-back team at 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss. Also, the underdog has completely dominated this matchup going 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Pound Oakland.

4* Major NFL *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Jets +10.5

Bottom Line: After 4 consecutive losses, Rex Ryan's job is on the line. So is Geno Smith's. I expect both to respond. This is a terrible spot for Denver, which takes the road for just the 2nd time this season and is riding high following a convincing win over Arizona. With the 49ers, Chargers and Patriots on deck, the Broncos will have a tough time getting up for the Jets. I'll gladly take the points in a game the New York has an excellent chance to win outright. Turnovers have been an issue for the Jets, but Denver has forced only 3 all season. Plus, New York is one of the best defensive teams in the league and has the ability to pressure Manning. It's tied for the NFL lead in sacks with 17. Playing against road teams after a win by 21 or more points that are up against an opponent that scored 3 points or less in the first half last game has resulted in a 35-10 ATS record the last 10 seasons (14-2 ATS the last 5 seasons). Also, plays on any team after 5 straight games of forcing 1 turnover or less against an opponent that is off a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse has resulted in a 40-12 ATS record since 1983. Desperate teams are the best teams, and this is a very desperate spot for Rex Ryan and company.

4* Major AFC East *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Bills +3

Bottom Line: Playing against teams with a winning record that are off an upset with at home and are up against another winning team has resulted in an 81-38 ATS record since 1983. This system is 9-1 ATS the last 3 seasons and 2-0 ATS this season. Additionally, playing against road teams that scored 30 points or more last game and are up against a team that scored 3 points or less in the 1st half last game has resulted in an 85-41 ATS record the last 10 seasons. This system is 5-0 ATS this season. The Pats are a lousy 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a win, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after scoring 30 points and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 on the road. Orton's teams are 5-0 ATS all-time in his starts versus teams with a win percentage of 55-65%.

4* Major Thursday Night Football *BLOOD BATH* on Colts -2.5

Bottom Line: The Colts have owned the AFC South and are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last 9 division games. They've also won 9 straight on Thursday with 7 of those coming on the road. They are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 Thursday games while the Texans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games. The Colts are 3-0 in their last 3 versus Houston. Indianapolis is the superior team with the superior QB. It leads the NFL in scoring and ranks 2nd in total offense. Its passing attack leads the league with 321.8 ypg. The defense has really picked it up too, holding foes to just 15.7 points and 297.3 yards the last 3 weeks. Houston ranks 24th in scoring and 22nd in total offense. It ranks 4th in scoring defense but is extremely fortunate that's the case because it ranks 26th in total defense with 385.4 ypg allowed. The Texans have benefited from timely takeaways but eventually the luck runs out. Bet the Colts.

5* Wiseguy MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Redskins +8

Bottom Line: The Redskins are a better team than their record leads you to believe, and I expect them to respond after getting spanked by the Giants in their last game. Washington boasts a Top 10 offense and defense, ranking 4th in the NFL with 415.2 ypg and 9th with 324.2 ypg allowed. The Redskins are also one of the top pass rushing teams in the league. They are 11-4 all-time in regular-season matchups with Seattle, including 6-0 in the last 6. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that give up 24 ppg or more and are off a loss of 28 points or more are 68-34 ATS since 1983. This system is 1-0 ATS this season, 10-3 ATS the last 3 seasons, 15-5 ATS the last 5 and 33-12 ATS the last 10. Pound Washington.

4* Major Sunday NFL Late Afternoon *BLOOD BATH* on Jets +7

Bottom Line: The Jets are better than their 1-3 record might lead you to believe. They have outgained their foes 366 yards to 291 yards on average. The Chargers have outgained their opponents just 352-325 on average. The Jets allow a league-low 63.3 rushing yards per game and rank 3rd in total defense at 291.2. The Chargers are getting nothing from their running game following injuries to Matthews and Woodhead. Rivers was able to do it on his own against Jacksonville, but this New York defense is too good. I expect it to wreak havok against a one-dimension San Diego offensive attack. The Jets have won or lost by fewer than 7 points in 6 of the last 8 meetings. They are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last 5 at San Diego. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Bet the Jets.

4* Major NFL *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Broncos -7.5

Bottom Line: With an OT loss at Seattle in last game, Denver entered its bye week knowing it needs to step it up if it's going to dethrone the Seahawks at season's end. Denver has responded well, going 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games following a loss. It is also 7-0 ATS the last 3 seasons after being held to 75 or less rushing yards. The Broncos are 16-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points under coach Fox. Playing against any team off an upset home win over a division rival has resulted in a 40-13 ATS record since 1983, provided they are a winning team playing another team with a winning record. This system has gone a perfect 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Broncos are 7-1-1 against Arizona, including 4-0 at home while outscoring the Red Birds 106-32.

5* Wiseguy NFL Underdog Game of the Year on Bills +7.5

Bottom Line: The Bills are being greatly undervalued because of 2 consecutive SU and ATS losses. The defense played well in both games, but the Bills were let down by QB play. Detroit's back-to-back SU and ATS wins also plays into us catching a great number. The Bills will benefit from the insertion of Orton, who is a more accurate passer than Manuel and will be smarter with the football. His experience works in our favor in this matchup. This is too many points for Buffalo to be catching given how good it has been defensively. It ranks 7th in the league in scoring defense with 18.8 ppg allowed and 10th in total defense with 337.8 ypg allowed. I also like Buffalo to be able to run the football. The Lions hadn't been tested on the ground until last week when the Jets rushed for 132 yards on nearly 5 ypc. I expect the Bills, who average 122.2 ypg on the ground, to establish the run Sunday after getting away from their ground game the past couple weeks. If Detroit wants to stack the box, Orton has proven he can make teams pay. The Bills are 10-1 ATS off a road loss the last 3 seasons and have won these by an average of 6.9 points. Pound Buffalo.

5* Wiseguy MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Patriots -2.5

Bottom Line: The Patriots are showing value laying less than a field goal at Arrowhead where the Chiefs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games. Kansas City has lost their last 4 at home straight up by an average of 10.5 points. New England has yet to get its offense going the way we are used to seeing, but I like its chances of doing so against a KC defense that has been very mediocre thus far. The KC offense has struggled every bit as much as New England's offensive unit, and it will have a tough time getting much of anything against a New England defense that ranks 2nd in the NFL in yards allowed per game (272.7). Playing road teams with a +3 to +7 ppg differential that are up against a team with a +3 to -3 ppg differential, provided the road team has allowed 17 points or less in its last 2 games, has resulted in a 23-4 ATS record the last 10 seasons. This system tightens up to 9-1 ATS the last 5 seasons. Pound the Pats.

4* Major NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Saints -3

Bottom Line: New Orleans has owned the Cowboys. It is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings, including 4-0 in Dallas during this span. It racked by 625 yards in last season's 49-17 win over the Boys, and I expect an encore performance. The Cowboys are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 versus teams with a losing record and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games versus teams with a losing road record. The Saints are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 versus a team with a winning record.

4* Major *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Vikings +3

Bottom Line: While this wouldn't be a shocking upset according to the spread, it would be according to public perception. Atlanta hasn't been the same team on the road, and I believe it is in serious danger here.  The Falcons are 1-8 in their last 9 road games with the lone win during this stretch coming by 3 points in OT. In other words, Atlanta has failed to cover this number in its last 9 road games. That's a 9-0 trend in our favor. Additionally, Minnesota is 10-1 ATS in home games the last 22 years versus teams that have outscored their opponent by 10.0 ppg or more on the season.

4* Major Late Afternoon *SUREFIRE* on Jaguars +14

Bottom Line: The Jags have lost the ugly the first 3 weeks, but I believe they are a surefire winner catching big points Sunday. Playing any team with a win percentage of 25% or less after being beaten by the spread by more than 7 points in 3 consecutive games has resulted in a 28-8 ATS record the last 10 seasons.

4* Major NFL *ODDSMAKER ERROR* on Titans +7.5

Bottom Line: This line is off the mark. Tennessee has won or lost by fewer than 7.5 points in 6 of its last 8 matchups with Indy. Tennessee is on an 11-2 ATS run after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games.  And, underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that score 14 points or less in 2 straight games are 28-8 ATS the last 5 seasons (16-2 ATS the last 3 seasons).

4* Major NFL *PUBLIC MASSACRE* on Bucs +9

Bottom Line: The public is piling on the Steelers early, and I expect that to continue to be the case right up to kickoff. However, I think the Steelers get the public burned here. Playing on poor offensive teams like Tampa Bay that average 14-18 ppg after a loss by 21 points or more has resulted in a 24-4 ATS record the last 10 seasons if they are up against a team like the Steelers that allow 23-27 ppg. This system is 8-1 ATS the last 5 seasons. Additionally, the Steelers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a win of more than 14 points.

5* Wiseguy NFL Non-Conference Game of the Week on Jets +2

Bottom Line: The Lions are an ugly 8-22 ATS as road chalk the last 22 years, including 4-13 ATS in this as a road fave of 3 points or less. The Jets 16-6 ATS after playing on Monday night football since 1992 and 18-4 ATS in home games off a home loss since 1992. Pound New York.

4* Major NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Redskins -3

Bottom Line: Washington lost a tough in Philadelphia last week but will have no problem getting up for this game after getting swept by the Giants last year. Playing favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that average 125-150 rushing yards per game has resulted in a 74-38 ATS record the last 10 seasons if they are up against a team that allows 95-125 rushing yards per game (while I recommend buying down to key number 3, I still like this play at 3.5 - the widely available number at the time of this report - and that's why this system applies). Washington didn't do a very good job of establishing the run against Philadelphia. I expect it to do so here to set up some easy play-action opportunities. The Giants are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a win, 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings with Washington. Bet the Redskins.

5* Wiseguy MNF Game of the Month on Jets -2.5

Bottom Line: I love the Jets at home tonight as I expect them to run all over a Bears defense that ranks next to last in the league with 160 rushing yards allowed per game.  The Jets have been the best rushing team in the NFL thus far, racking up 170 yards per game on the ground.  Additionally, New York is the better defensive team.  It ranks 3rd in the NFL in total defense with only 274 yards per game allowed.  The Jets blew a big lead in Green Bay last week and will be hungry as a result.  I think it will be a tough encore for the Bears going on the road for a second straight week, especially after last week's emotional victory over the 49ers.  That win wasn't nearly as impressive as it looks considering the Bears were outgained by 145 yards.  The Bears are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall, 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win.  CHICAGO is 6-18 ATS in road games when the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992 and 4-16 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better since 1992.  Pound the Jets.

4* Major NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Steelers +3.5

Bottom Line: Motivation won't be an issue for the Steelers, who were kicked last Thursday night in Baltimore.  This is also a strong situational spot for Pittsburgh as it will have had 3 extra days to prepare.  The Steelers are 5-0 ATS all-time versus the Panthers and have won the last 4 meetings straight up by an average of 21.0 points.  Grab the points with Pittsburgh.

4* Major NFL *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Jaguars +7

Bottom Line: The Jaguars are showing a lot of value catching 7 at home.  Indy will be hungry following a 0-2 start but it has some major problems on defense and one fewer day to figure out those problems having played on Monday.  Jacksonville will also be hungry following an 0-2 start, and it will also by jacked up for its home opener.  It lost by 34 points on this field to the Colts last season so I expect an inspired performance.  Plays on underdogs or pickems that won only 25% to 40% of their games the previous season, provided they are playing a conference opponent, have resulted in a 35-10 ATS record the last 5 seasons.  These dogs have lost by just 0.7 points on average.  Jacksonville has a solid opportunity to shock the Colts.  Grab the points.

5* Wiseguy NFL Oddsmaker Error Game of the Year on Giants +2.5

Bottom Line: The wrong team is favored here.  The Giants outgained Arizona 341-266 but fell victim to a -4 turnover margin.  The Texans are 2-0 but were outgained by 56 and 37 yards in those contests.  They have benefited from a plus-5 turnover margin.  Turnovers shouldn't factor this much into the line as they can't be handicapped well, especially this early in the season.  We are getting the Giants at home at an excellent number here because odds makers are overreacting to turnover margin. Plays on any team that didn't force a turnover last game that is up against an opponent that forced 3 or more turnovers last game has resulted in a 130-79 ATS record the last 10 seasons.  The Texans are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS win and 0-7 ATS the last 2 seasons following a road contest.  Pound New York.

4* Major Thursday Night Football *SUREFIRE* on Buccaneers +7

Bottom Line: In the first month of the season, playing against home teams off a road loss that closed last season with two or more consecutive losses has resulted in a 107-61 (64%) ATS record since 1983.  Additionally, playing underdog of 3.5 to 10 points that won just 25% to 40% of their games last season has resulted in a 28-8 (78%) ATS record the last 5 seasons.  Tampa Bay has won or lost by fewer than 7 points in 11 of the last 14 meetings.  Bet the Bucs.

5* Wiseguy MNF *BEST BET* on Colts -3

Bottom Line: One thing you can't do is go against Andrew Luck following a loss.  Since taking over as QB of the Colts, they are an unbeaten 10-0 straight up and ATS off a defeat in the regular season.  Last season they crushed the 49ers by 20 on the road and beat Denver by 6 at home following losses.  These are clearly 2 of the best teams in the NFL.  The Eagles only won 1 game against playoff teams last season.  That was against Green Bay, which was playing without Aaron Rodgers.  Philadelphia's O-line is in bad shape.  The Eagles benefited from having the same O-line for 17 games last season but will struggle here against a good team without the unit in tact.  Additionally, the Colts are an unbeaten 7-0 ATS the last 3 seasons following a loss on the road and have won these contests by 8.1 points on average.  They are 6-0 ATS at home during this span after giving up 30 points or more in their last game and have won by an average of 8.0 points in this situation.  Pound Indy.

4* Major Sunday Night Football *SUREFIRE* on Bears +7

Bottom Line: I expect to see a completely different Bears team in San Francisco Sunday evening.  The Bears stunk it up at home in Week 1, and they haven't forgotten the beating they took the last time they visited San Francisco.  They will be extremely motivated.  The Bears have too much offensive talent to be getting this kind of disrespect from oddsmakers.  The 49ers are offensively challenged at times and were outgained by 63 yards in Dallas last week.  The difference was their +4 turnover margin.  Turnovers cost the Bears last week, and I expect to see much better decision making from Jay Cutler.  This is a huge game for Chicago given how tough its schedule is going forward, and I expect it to respond.

5* Wiseguy NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Chargers +6

Bottom Line: Because Seattle rolled at home in the Week 1 opener and because it has had extra rest, we are getting a great line.  Seattle isn't the same team on the road where it is just 20-36 in the regular season the last 7 years.  San Diego, on the other hand, has been formidable at home where it is 45-19 the last 8 seasons.  The Chargers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 following a loss, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 versus winning teams and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 after giving up more than 350 yards in their last game.  Pound San Diego.

4* Major NFL *ODDSMAKER ERROR* on Giants +3

Bottom Line: This is a letdown spot for Arizona as it heads on the road following Monday's thrilling comeback win against the Chargers.  This is a bounce back spot for the Giants, who were brutally embarrassed in Detroit.  Given the situation, the Giants shouldn't be catching points at home.  They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 versus NFC opponents and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.  Bet New York.

4* Major *EARLY BLOWOUT* on Patriots -3

Bottom Line: No team bounces back better than the Patriots, who are 32-13-1 ATS in their last 46 games following a loss.  It can be tough playing on the road in back-to-back weeks, but the Pats are 11-2 ATS under Belichick in road games off a road loss.  They've won these contests by an average of 11.8 points.  I'm betting on Tom Brady and company to bounce back.

*Adrian Peterson is out and the line has adjusted, but I still like the Patriots laying 7 or less.

5* Wiseguy NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Ravens -1

Bottom Line: The Ravens are in a much better spot playing a home game off a home game in a short week.  It's much tougher going on the road in a short week.  Baltimore has won 4 of its last 6 in the series, and I believe it will be the more motivated side after falling to Cincinnati in Week 1.  The Ravens have been outstanding at home, going an amazing 39-10 in their last 49 regular-season home games.  Playing against road teams that scored 30 points or more last game that are up against a team that scored 3 points or less in the first half last game has resulted in an 80-41 ATS record the last 10 seasons.  Pound Baltimore.

5* Wiseguy MNF *BEST BET* on Lions -6

Bottom Line: The Lions will be the hungrier team tonight.  They were defeated at home in overtime in Week 16 by the Giants last season in a game they led by 7 points late in the 4th quarter.  They outgained the Giants 355 to 279 in the game and dominated the time of possession.  They should have won the contest, and I expect them to have their revenge.  While NY made improvements to the defensive side of the football, an offensive line that allowed Eli Manning to be sacked a career-high 39 times remains suspect, especially since free-agent pickup Geoff Schwartz will be out at least the first 7 games with a dislocated toe.  I expect Suh, Fairley and company to wreak havoc tonight.  Pound the Lions.

4* Major Sunday Night Football *BLOOD BATH* on Broncos -7.5

Bottom Line: The Broncos enter the season highly motivated following a pathetic showing in the Super Bowl.  A 39-33 loss at Indy last year should only add fuel to the fire.  Denver is 16-5 ATS as a favorite of 3.5-9.5 points under John Fox.  Additionally, playing against road underdogs of 3.5-10 points that has a winning record last season has resulted in an 18-4 ATS record the last 5 seasons.  For Manning, last year's defeat to his former club can't be sitting well.  Look for him to do something about it here.

5* Wiseguy NFC South Game of the Year on Buccaneers -2

Bottom Line: I love the Bucs in their season opener.  They have a coach (Lovie Smith) who has shown he can win in the National Football League, and I expect him to have them extremely well prepared.  Plus, Tampa will be extremely motivated by a pair of butt-kickings they received by Carolina last season.  The Bucs will be improved on both sides of the football, and they catch Carolina at the perfect time.  Cam Newton isn't healthy, and he has a new receiving corps to adjust to.  It takes time to build timing and chemistry, and I don't expect the Panthers to have it early.  The favorite is on a 6-1 ATS run in this series, and I look for this trend to continue.  Pound the Bucs.

4* Major Oddsmaker Error on Falcons +3

Bottom Line: The wrong team is favored here.  The Falcons went 4-12 last season but had 7 defeats of 7 points or fewer.  This series has been highly competitive with the home team holding the advantage.  The home side has won or lost by 3 points or less in 11 of the last 12 meetings so I feel really good about catching a field goal in this one.  The Falcons aren't used to losing, especially at home, so they'll be looking to send a message right out of the gate.

4* Major NFL *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Bills +7

Bottom Line: The Bills have a legit opportunity to shock a Bears team that is getting way too much respect from odds makers.  The Bears shined offensively in 2013 but ranked 30th in total defense and gave up a league-high 2,583 rushing yards.  The Bears are a weak 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. Underdogs of 3.5-10 points that won just 25-40% of their games last season are 24-5 ATS the last 5 seasons.  Grab the points.