Winning Sports Picks

20* Packers/49ers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 49

The Green Bay Packers gave up 55 combined points to the Saints and Lions the first two weeks.  Those aren't two particularly good offenses.  And the Packers continue to struggle stopping the run this year, which has always been a problem for them.  They rank 26th in the NFL in giving up 4.8 yards per carry.

The 49ers have always been able to run the ball down Green Bay's throats in recent meetings.  They will be able to do whatever they want offensively in this one.  The 49ers have scored 29.0 points per game in their first two games with a nice balance of run and pass.  They'll be up against a 49ers defense that is missing two of its best players in LB Dre Greenlaw and CB Jason Verrett.

The weakness of the entire 49ers team is their secondary, which is bad news going up against a guy like Aaron Rodgers.  He got right last week against the Lions in leading the Packers to 35 points and four touchdown passes.  He looked like his old self and should build on that this week by matching the 49ers score for score.

These teams met in the 2019-20 playoffs and combined for 57 points in a 37-20 San Francisco victory.  Then last year they combined for 51 points in a 34-17 victory by the Packers that saw the 49ers missing several key players on offense due to injuries, including QB Jimmy G.  I think they have no problem topping 49 points for a third straight meeting here.

The OVER is 19-10 in Kyle Shanahan's 29 games as a favorite as the coach of San Francisco.  The OVER is 4-0 in Packers last four games as underdogs.  The OVER is 5-1 in Packers last six games overall.  The OVER is 6-0 in Packers last six Week 3 games.  The OVER is 36-17 in Packers last 53 September games.  The OVER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday night.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lions/Packers OVER 48

This game has shootout written all over it Monday night.  The Detroit Lions showed they are going to be an 'over' team in Week 1.  They allowed 41 points and a whopping 8.0 yards per play against the San Francisco 49ers.  But they didn't quit, scoring 33 points on their own after a big 4th quarter behind Jared Goff.

The Lions are going to have to play in shootouts all season because of their leaky defense.  And things just got worse for them when they lost starting CB Jeffrey Okudah to a season-ending Achilles injury last season.  Aaron Rodgers should have a field day against this Detroit defense.

The Packers gave up 38 points to the Saints in Week 1.  That's a Saints team that is starting Jameis Winston and without their best receiver in Michael Thomas.  That was a very bad showing for the Packers defensively.  It was also a poor showing offensively, but I have no doubt they will get it turned around in Week 2.  There was clearly going to be some rust for them on offense after Aaron Rodgers sat out most of training camp.  And that was a good Saints defense.  This will be a much easier test for Rodgers and company this week.

Both meetings between the Lions and Packers were shootouts last year.  The Packers won 42-21 at home for 63 combined points.  Green Bay also won 31-24 on the road for 55 combined points.  I think we are getting a discount on this 48-point total here Monday night.

The OVER is 7-1 in Lions last eight games following a loss.  The OVER is 35-17 in Packers last 52 September games.  The OVER is 5-1 in Packers last six vs. NFC North opponents.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Cardinals/Titans OVER 52

The Arizona Cardinals and Tennessee Titans will be two of the best offensive teams in the NFL this season.  The Titans ranked 2nd in the NFL in total offense last season at 396.4 yards per game and 4th in scoring offense at 30.8 points per game.  The Cardinals ranked 6th in total offense at 384.6 yards per game last year.

There's reasons to believe both offenses will be just as good if not better this season.  The Titans traded for Julio Jones, and he and AJ Brown form one of the best 1-2 punches at receiver in the NFL.  The Cardinals signed AJ Green to pair him with De'Andre Hopkins, giving the Cardinals an elite duo themselves.  It appears both Green and Jones have a lot left in the tank.

The Titans ranked 28th in total defense last year at 398.3 yards per game allowed while also giving up 27.4 points per game.  They did nothing to improve their defense in the offseason and will be terrible on that side of the ball once again.  The Cardinals have a middle-of-the-pack defense and the addition of JJ Watt won't do much other than provide name value.

The OVER is 22-7-1 in Titans last 30 games overall.  The OVER is 15-5-1 in Titans last 21 home games.  The OVER is 9-1 in Titans last 10 home games against NFC West opponents.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Eagles/Falcons OVER 48

I like the outlook of both the Eagles and Falcons on offense this season.  But I expect these to be two of the worst defenses in the NFL once again this season.  Atlanta gave up 25.9 points per game and nearly 400 yards per game last season.  They ranked 29th in total defense.  Philadelphia gave up 26.1 points per game last season.

The Eagles did get a spark offensively late in the year when Jalen Hurts took over at quarterback, and that experience gained will help him a ton coming into this season.  He led the Eagles for 1,312 yards of offense in his final three starts last year, which was 2nd in the NFL to only the Bills during that stretch.  I like the talent on offense with RB Mile Sanders, young receivers DeVonta Smith and Jalen Raegor, and a pair of elite tight ends in Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert.

Speaking of elite tight ends, the Falcons have a pair now themselves in top pick Kyle Pitts from Florida to go along with Hayden Hurst.  Calvin Ridley is one of the best young receivers in the NFL now too.  The addition of Pitts will help ease the loss of Julio Jones, who just wasn't used right in Atlanta, was always injured and almost never happy here.  So it's probably a good thing they moved on from him.

The Falcons should be improved offensively this season with head coach Arthur Smith running the show.  He comes from the Tennessee Titans, where he served as their offensive coordinator and helped lead the resurgence of QB Ryan Tannehill and RB Derrick Henry.  The Titans ranked 2nd in total offense and 4th in scoring offense last season.

Philadelphia signed an offensive mind in Nick Sirianni as their head coach.  He served as offensive coordinator under Frank Reich over the past three seasons.  Reich guided the Eagles to a Super Bowl under Doug Pederson.  So you have to like the OVER when both head coaches are offensive-minded.

The Eagles have a terrible secondary that the Falcons should be able to exploit, and there's just not much to like at all about this Falcons defense outside of maybe linebacker.  The conditions will be perfect for a shootout inside the dome in Atlanta.  The OVER is 32-15 in Eagles last 47 road games.  Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Bears/Jaguars OVER 46.5

The Chicago Bears have become an offensive juggernaut with Mitch Trubisky at quarterback.  He has led the Bears to 30 or more points in three straight games now.  And they have gotten their running game going, making things easier on him in the play-action passing game.

The Bears have rushed for at least 140 yards in all three games.  They only had to punt once against the Vikings last week in their 33-27 victory.  And now they face a Jaguars defense that gave up 40 points to Baltimore last week.  In fact, the Jaguars have now allowed at least 24 points in each of their last 13 games, all losses.  They give up 30.2 points per game this season.  The Bears should get to 30-plus points for a fourth consecutive week.

The Jaguars should be able to do their part against a Bears defense that allowed 34 points to the Lions three weeks ago and 27 to the Vikings last week.  I think Jacksonville should top 20 points in this one.  Mike Glennon will be their quarterback, and he has been the best of the Jaguars' three different signal callers this season.  It will be great weather in Jacksonville as well, which sets this game up to be a shootout.

The OVER is 20-7 in Bears last 27 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The OVER is 19-7 in Bears last 26 games as a road favorite.  The OVER is 4-0 in Jaguars last four games following an ATS loss.  Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Bengals/Texans OVER 44.5

The Cincinnati Bengals and Houston Texans have nothing to play for but pride.  I like backing the OVER late in the season when that is the case.  I see defense as being optional in this game, and for both the Bengals and Texans to hang big numbers offensively.

For starters, these are two of the worst defenses in the NFL.  The Texans give up 27.6 points and 402.8 yards per game this season.  The Bengals allow 25.4 points and 372.6 yards per game.  The Texans still have a very good offense under Deshaun Watson, and the Bengals showed some life offensively last week with 27 points against a very good Steelers defense.

Houston is 19-6 OVER in its last 25 games coming off three or more consecutive unders.  If the Texans hadn't fumbled inside the 5-yard line in the final seconds against the Colts two of the last three weeks, both those games would have gone OVER.  I think that fact is providing us with some line value here with this total of only 44.5.  Plus the Bengals have gone under the total in four of their last five while playing some very bad offenses in Washington, Giants, Dolphins, Cowboys and Steelers.  That has also provided us with some value on the OVER.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Ravens/Browns ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 46.5

This will be the 2nd meeting between the Ravens and Browns this season.  I always like to look to the UNDER in the 2nd meeting between teams in a division rivalry because they are so familiar with one another.  They are able to make adjustments from the first meeting, and those adjustments almost always favor the defenses.

Weather will play a factor here as well, which is a big reason I'm on the UNDER.  It's going to be 30 degrees with 15 to 25 MPH winds are kickoff tonight in Cleveland.  And we've seen how wind and cold weather has affected the scoring conditions in these Cleveland home games recently.

Indeed, the UNDER is 3-0 in Cleveland's last three home games.  They lost to the Raiders 6-16 for 22 combined points, beat the Texans 10-7 for 17 combined points and beat the Eagles 22-17 for 39 combined points.  The UNDER is 3-0 in Baltimore's last three road games with combined scores of 34, 40 and 33 points as well.

These are two of the best rushing offenses in the NFL as well.  The Ravens average 33 attempts for 169 yards per game on the ground, while the Browns average 32 attempts for 158 yards per game.  So both teams are going to run the football a lot, especially with the winds, and that will keep the clock moving and make the game fly right by.

Both defenses have been above average at stopping the run, too.  The Ravens give up 112 rushing yards per game, while the Browns allow just 104 rushing yards per game.  In their first meeting, the Browns held the Ravens to 107 rushing yards on 30 attempts.  Cleveland had 138 yards on 27 attempts but fell way behind early.  This rematch should be much closer, which will have both teams sticking to their running games.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is 42.5 to 49 points (Cleveland) - off an upsset win as an underdog, a top level team that wins 75% or more of their games are 70-29 (70.7%) since 1983.  There's so much at stake here in terms of the playoff race that this game will be played close to the vest.  Look for it to go well UNDER the number.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Chargers/Bills OVER 52.5

This game has shootout written all over it between the Los Angeles Chargers and Buffalo Bills Sunday.  These are two of the best offenses in the NFL, especially when it comes to throwing the football.  They are the 2nd and 3rd passing offenses in the league.  And the conditions will be prime for scoring in Buffalo for this time of year with 46 degrees and 10 MPH winds at kickoff forecasted.

This Buffalo offense is hitting on all cylinders right now.  They are scoring 27.2 points per game on the season and are coming off 44 and 30-point efforts against the Seahawks and Cardinals, respectively.  Now their offense should torch a Los Angeles Chargers defense that has allowed at least 28 points in seven consecutive games.

That includes 29 points to the Jaguars, 31 to the Broncos, 29 to the Dolphins and 28 to the Jets.  Those are the 21st, 27th, 29th and 32nd offenses in the NFL this season, so they are giving up big points against even poor offenses.  So you can imagine what the Bills are going to do to them, especially with the Chargers being without four key defenders in DE Ingram, CB Hayward, CB Harris and LB Nwosu.  They allow 27.3 points per game on the season.

But the Chargers have the offense to make up for their poor defense.  Justin Herbert is the Rookie of the Year right now with what he is doing in the passing game.  He is guiding the Chargers to 26.0 points per game this season.  He is completing 68% of his passes for 2,699 yards with a 22-to-6 TD/INT ratio this year.  And there’s a good chance he gets back a huge weapon this week in RB Austin Ekeler.

The OVER is 7-0 in Chargers last seven games overall with combined scores of 69, 57, 68, 61, 57, 50 and 62 points.  That’s an average of 60.5 combined points per game.  This 52.5-point total isn’t nearly high enough today for these two games as we should see 60-plus combined points here.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Bucs/Giants ESPN Monday No-Brainer on UNDER 47

The New York Giants have been an UNDER machine this season.  They have a terrible offense and an underrated defense.  The UNDER is 5-2 in their seven games this year and six of the seven have seen 45 or fewer combined points.  The only exception was their game against the Dallas Cowboys, who have arguably the worst defense in the NFL.

Speaking of underrated defenses, the Tampa Bay Bucs give up just 20.3 points and 291.3 yards per game.  Their offense gets all their credit, but it is their defense being the reason that they are so good.  In fact, Football Outsiders has the Bucs ranked as the top defense in the entire NFL this season.

The Giants have given up 22 or fewer points in four of their seven games this season.  I think they can limit what the Bucs do offensively similar to when the Bears held the Bucs to just 19 points a few weeks back.  The Bucs have scored a ton of points the last two weeks since against the Packers and Raiders, but many of those points were created by their defense, and that’s unlikely to continue happening.

The Giants have the 30th-ranked offense according to Football Outsiders.  They average just 17.4 points and 282.4 yards per game this season.  Daniel Jones really misses his best weapon in Saquon Barkley.  And now he’s left with one of the worst set of skill players in the NFL.  I don’t expect the Giants to do much offensively to contribute to the total points scored in this game.

Plays on the UNDER on any team where the total is 42.5 to 49 (Tampa Bay) - after a game where they committed no turnovers against an opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers are 41-14 (74.5%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* MNF TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bears/Rams UNDER 45.5

Two of the best defensive teams in the NFL square off Monday night when the Los Angeles Rams host the Chicago Bears.  Points are going to be hard to come by in this one, so we’ll side with the UNDER 45.5 points here.  Both teams are 4-2 to the UNDER this season.

The Bears are 5-1 this season behind a defense that is giving up just 19.3 points and 337.2 yards per game.  This defense is the only reason they are 5-1 because their offense has been putrid outside of a couple fourth quarter comebacks against both the lowly Lions and Falcons.  The Bears average just 21.3 points and 312.8 yards per game.

The Rams are off to a 4-2 start this season behind a defense that gives up only 19.0 points and 318.5 yards per game.  The Rams are also running at a much slower pace this season and not throwing the ball all over the yard.  Instead, they have become more of a power running team, averaging 31 rush attempts per game compared to only 32 pass attempts.  It’s clear Sean McVey doesn’t exactly trust Jared Goff.

The last two meetings in this series over the past two seasons have been extremely low-scoring.  Indeed, the Rams won 17-7 at home last year for just 24 combined points.  And the Bears won 15-6 in 2018 for 21 combined points during the Rams’ Super Bowl season.

The UNDER is 10-1 in Bears last 11 games following an ATS win.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Bears last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 10-3 in Bears last 13 as road underdogs.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Rams last six October games.  The UNDER is 13-3 in Rams last 16 games as favorites.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Rams/Cardinals OVER 47 

The Los Angeles Rams just got two weapons back last week in Robert Woods and Brandon Cooks.  They weren’t in sync against the Rams Monday night, but they will be in sync against this putrid Cardinals defense. Look for the Rams to get back to being the old Rams offensively this week. 

Not only have the injuries held their offense back, but they’ve been up against three straight good defenses in Pittsburgh, Chicago and Baltimore.  They now face an Arizona defense that gives up 28.8 points per game and ranks 31st in total defense in allowing 415.2 yards per game.  Many offenses have gotten right against the Cardinals this season.  Indeed, the Cardinals have allowed 28-plus points in four straight games coming in. 

The Rams were exposed defensively by the Ravens Monday night.  They gave up 45 points and 480 total yards.  The Rams rushed for 285 yards on them, really softening up their defense.  I think their defense will still be tired from that game because they are on a short week.  Look for the Cardinals to expose them too. 

I expect this Arizona offense to be hitting on all cylinders coming out of their bye week with a first-year head coach.  You know Kliff Kingsbury has a few extra tricks up his sleeve for the Rams in this one.  And it’s an Arizona offense that has really improved as the season has gone along under Kyler Murray. 

Indeed, the Cardinals have scored 25 or more points in six of their last seven games overall.  It should come as no surprise that the OVER has gone 5-2 in those games.  And the Cardinals should get to 25 in this one, so with the Rams favored by 3, this game should easily exceed this 47-point total.  After all, the Rams have scored at least 31 points in each of their last four meetings with the Cardinals. 

Plays on the OVER on any team (Arizona) - after allowing 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games against an opponent that allowed 450 or more total yards in their previous game are 31-8 (79.5%) over the last five seasons.  Arizona is 13-4 to the OVER in its last 17 games after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. 

25* MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Ravens/Rams OVER 46.5 

Offensive coordinator Greg Roman has worked wonders with yet another dual-threat quarterback in his first season with the Ravens this year.  Roman was the coordinator for Colin Kaepernick back when he was decent, and he was the coordinator for Tyrod Taylor the last time the Bills made the playoffs.  Now he has a QB in Lamar Jackson who is actually pretty good. 

The results cannot even be debated.  Roman is the dual-threat QB guru.  The Ravens lead the NFL in scoring offense at 34.1 points per game and are 2nd in total offense at 428.6 yards per game.  Jack is completing 66.3% of his passes for 2,258 yards with 19 touchdowns against five interceptions while averaging 8.1 per attempt.  He also leads the team in rushing with 781 yards and six scores and is well on his way to winning the MVP award. 

The Rams were on fire offensively to start the season.  They scored 27 or more points in four of their first five games.  But then injuries took their toll to the offensive line and receivers, and they haven’t been as explosive since.  However, they are much healthier on the offensive line now, and they get both Brandon Cooks and Robert Woods back this week.  Jared Goff will now have his full compliment of weapons for the first time since the beginning of the season.  And the Rams should get back to putting up points in bunches. 

I know both defenses have played well of late, but a lot of that has to do with going up against some bad offenses.  The Rams have played the Bears, Steelers and Bengals the last three weeks.  The Ravens have played the Texans, Bengals and Patriots the last three weeks.  This number is lower than it should be because the defenses have been playing well of late.  I expect the offenses to win out in this showdown as these are still just average defenses and well above average offenses. 

The Rams are 9-0 OVER in their last nine home games after allowing 4 or fewer yards per play in their previous game.  Plays on the OVER on road teams where the total is 42.5 to 49 points (Baltimore) - an excellent offensive team that scores 27 or more points per game, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games are 42-13 (76.4%) since 1983.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday. 

25* NBC Sunday Night PARLAY OF THE YEAR on Cowboys -3/UNDER 48 

Reasons for Cowboys -3: 

The Dallas Cowboys have shown what they are capable of when fully healthy at the beginning of the season and here of late.  They had some injuries on the offensive line and at receiver that cost them a three-game losing streak in which they lost two games by 2 points each.  But in their five wins all five have come by double-digits. 

The Cowboys’ last two games have been very impressive.  They beat the Eagles 37-10 as 3-point home favorites and held them to just 283 total yards while forcing four turnovers.  The Eagles have gone on to blow out the Bills and the Bears since.  Last week they won 37-18 at the Giants and held them to 271 yards while forcing three turnovers.  They outgained the Giants by 158 yards. 

In fact, the Cowboys have outgained seven of their eight opponents this season, which is the sign of a dominant team.  The Cowboys rank 1st in total offense at 436.8 yards per gam and 1st in yards per play at 6.7 per play.  Dak Prescott is having a huge year, and Zeke running behind a healthy offensive line has been downright scary.  Defensively, the rank 5th in scoring (17.8 points/game) and 6th in total defense (318.1 yards/game).  They are outgaining teams by 118.7 yards per game. 

I just don’t trust Kirk Cousins in primetime games.  Cousins is 6-15 in his career in primetime games.  He is 1-6 in his career against the Cowboys.  Dak Prescott is 15-5 in primetime games.  Prescott is 5-0 straight up against Cousins.  And Cousins is going to be without his security blanked in Adam Thielen, who reaggravated his hamstring injury last week against the Chiefs.  The Vikings managed just 308 total yards against a bad Chiefs defense last week in an upset loss against Matt Moore. 

The Cowboys are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season with their only loss coming to the Packers.  It was a fluky loss as the Cowboys outgained the Packers by 228 yards.  The Vikings are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five November games.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The favorite is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Roll with the Cowboys Sunday. 

Reasons for UNDER 48: 

Both the Vikings and Cowboys love to run the football and play at slow paces while controlling time of possession.  The Vikings are 3rd in the NFL in rushing offense at 153.0 yards per game, while the Cowboys are 4th at 149.2 yards per game.  Running the ball will keep the clock moving and benefit the UNDER in this game. 

Both defenses have been great at stopping the run this season.  The Vikings are 8th against the run, allowing 95.8 yards per game.  The Cowboys are 10th against the run, yielding just 97.2 yards per game.  Yards will be harder to come by on the ground for both teams than they’re accustomed to. 

Both teams have elite defenses.  The Vikings are 4th in scoring defense at 17.6 points per game, while the Cowboys are 5th at 17.8 points per game allowed.  The Cowboys are 6th in total defense at 318.1 yards per game, while the Vikings are 8th at 320.9 yards per game.   

These are the two best defenses that both offenses will have faced this season with the exception of perhaps when the Cowboys played the Saints on a road, a game that saw 22 combined points in a 12-10 victory by New Orleans.  The best defense Minnesota has faced was Chicago, and that game also saw 22 combined points in a 6-16 road loss to the Bears. 

Kirk Cousins has just been awful in primetime games and and against the Cowboys, and you can look above to see those records.  And he’s going to be without Adam Thielen, taking away what I believe is the most important weapon on the Vikings because he is Cousins’ security blanket on 3rd downs.  The Cowboys can focus their attention on stopping Stefon Diggs now.  Their next-leading receiver after Diggs, Thielen and Dalvin Cook is Irv Smith Jr. who has just 19 receptions for 207 yards this year. 

Minnesota is 20-8 UNDER in its last 28 games off an upset loss as a road favorite.  Dallas is 13-4 UNDER in its last 17 home games after scoring 30 points or more in two straight games.  Mike Zimmer is 9-2 UNDER as a road dog of 3 points or less as the coach of the Vikings.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Vikings last 11 vs. NFC opponents.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last fie meetings.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

25* NFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Rams/Falcons OVER 53.5 

Expect plenty of offensive fireworks in this game between the Rams and Falcons Sunday played inside the Georgia Dome in Atlanta.  It’s perfect conditions for a high-scoring affair between two of the better offenses in the NFL, but also two of the worst defenses in the league. 

The Falcons rank 7th in total offense at 391.3 yards per game.  The Rams are 12th in total offense at 370.8 yards per game.  The Falcons are 26th in total defense, giving up 388.8 yards per game.  And the Rams are 12th in total defense at 346.8 yards per game. 

The Falcons are giving up 31.0 points per game this season.  It’s like their defense has quit, but they have also been hit hard by injuries.  The Falcons have been particularly bad defensively the last two weeks.  They gave up 53 points to the Texans and 34 points to the Cardinals. 

The Rams started the season pretty well defensively against some bad offenses, but they have been very poor defensively the last three weeks.  They gave up 55 points to the Bucs, 30 to the Seahawks and 20 to the 49ers for an average of 35.0 points per game.  I expect both offenses to top 28 points in this one, and likely to get into the 30’s with the winner scoring 40-plus. 

The Rams traded for Jalen Ramsey, and he should play this week.  But they also traded away CB Marcus Peters, lost their best corner in Aqib Talib to a rib injury, and lost one of their best pass rushers in Clay Matthews to a broken jaw.  That helps explain why their defense has been so poor.  Offensively, they should get back Todd Gurley from injury this week, who they didn’t have against the 49ers. 

The Falcons are also dealing with a ton of injuries defensively as they are without S J.J. Wilcox, DT Michael Bennett, S Keanu Neal and S Johnathan Cyprien.  They could also be without CB Desmond Trufant and CB Blidi-Wreh-Wilson, who are both questionable.  These secondary injuries basically give them no chance of stopping anyone.  Matt Ryan has thrown for over 300 yards in every game this season as the Falcons are consistently playing from behind.  Fortunately, they have stayed almost 100% healthy on offense and have a ton of playmakers for Ryan. 

The Rams are 7-0 OVER in their last seven road games after possessing the ball for 26 or fewer minutes and gaining 13 or fewer first downs in their previous game.  The OVER is 5-1 in Rams last six games following an ATS loss.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Atlanta with combined scores of 55, 58, 64 and 51 points.  The OVER is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. 

20* Lions/Packers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on UNDER 46 

This total seems a little high for two teams with suspect offenses up against two improved defenses.  Plus it’s a division rivalry, so these teams are very familiar with one another.  I expect a low-scoring, defensive battle in this one that stays UNDER the combined total of 46 points.  It also helps that it’s going to be cold out with temperates expected to be 34 degrees Monday night. 

You would be hard-pressed to find a defense that is as improved as much as the Packers are this season.  They are only giving up 18.6 points per game.  They have made some great additions in the secondary throughout the draft, and also acquired some impressive free agents up front.  They have been great against the pass but poor against the run this season. 

The good news for the Packers is that the Lions aren’t a team that runs the football very well as they averaging just 3.9 yards per carry this year.  I expect the Lions to try and utilize their ground game more in this one, which will keep the clock moving.  They do average 31 rush attempts per game, which is way up from normal for them as they try and get their renewed run game going with consistency.  It just hasn’t worked out very well for them. 

The Lions are scoring 24.2 points per game this year, but they have played basically all soft defenses in the Cardinals, Chargers, Eagles and Chiefs.  This will easily be the best defense they have faced yet.  The Packers have struggled offensively, averaging 23.8 points per game but only 337 yards per game. 

Life gets much more difficult for the Packers this week as they have a ton of injury concerns on offense.  They will be without star WR Devante Adams, who is quickly thrusting himself in among the Top 5 receivers in the game.  They could also be without RB Jamaal Williams and C Corey Linsley in this game.  I believe the Lions can slow them down, especially without having to deal with Adams. 

Detroit is 32-16 UNDER in its last 48 road games after allowing 30 points or more last game.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Packers last five vs. NFC North opponents.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Lions last six games following a bye week.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Lions last six games following a loss. 

Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (Green Bay) - after going over the total by 28 or more points in their last three games, a good team winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 34-11 (75.6%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday. 

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cardinals/Ravens OVER 45.5 

Baltimore offensive coordinator Greg Roman is definitely the dual-threat QB whisperer.  Before he arrived in Baltimore he turned Colin Kaepernick into a star in San Francisco, and more impressively yet helped Tyrod Taylor guide the Buffalo Bills to the playoffs a few years back.  Now he’s working his magic on Lamar Jackson. 

The Ravens were vanilla on offense in the preseason and saving their real offense for the regular season.  Well, that ‘real’ offense exploded for 59 points last week against the Dolphins.  The Ravens racked up 643 total yards.  Jackson had the best game of his career, completing 17-of-20 passes for 324 yards and 5 touchdowns.  The scary part is he only ran the ball three times.  This Ravens’ offense is the real deal, and they are playing at a faster tempo this year, which will certainly be beneficial to ‘OVER’ bettors. 

Speaking of fast tempos, the Arizona Cardinals average a play nearly every 20 seconds, which was the fastest pace any NFL team played at last week.  Trailing 24-6, they sped up the pace even more and actually came back to tie the game and force overtime behind some brilliant play from Kyler Murray.  They had 387 total yards against the Lions and most of those game in the 2nd half.  Look for head coach Kliff Kingsbury to realize that the faster pace worked, and to try and utilize it against the Ravens. 

The Ravens should be able to score at will on this soft Arizona defense.  The Lions had 477 total yards against the Cardinals last week, and that’s a below average Detroit offense.  The Cardinals simply lack talent on this side of the ball, and they are without Patrick Peterson and Robert Alford, two very good cornerbacks they were expected to rely on coming into the season.  This Arizona defense is also probably gassed after playing an overtime game. 

Baltimore lost so many key players on defense in the offseason.  They lost arguably their four best players in LB C.J. Mosley, LB Za’Darius Smith, LB Terrell Suggs and FS Eric Weddle.  And now they are down two cornerbacks in Jimmy Smith and Tavon Young due to injury.  Arizona likes to go 4 wide, so the one position you don’t want to be short on is cornerback.  Arizona should have plenty of success offensively against this short-handed secondary as well. 

Get ready for plenty of offensive fireworks in this battle between two of the most exciting new offenses in the league today.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday. 

15* Bucs/Panthers NFC South Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 49.5 

I expect a low scoring game in this division rivalry between the Panthers and Bucs tonight.  Both teams are coming off losses that can be 100% attributed to turnovers.  Look for both teams to have conservative game plans and to focus more on taking care of the football than anything, which will help lead to the UNDER. 

The Bucs were dreadful offensively against the 49ers last week.  They managed just 17 points and 295 total yards while committing four turnovers.  Jameis Winston threw three interceptions, two of which were returned for touchdowns.  Their defense actually played well in giving up just 256 total yards to the 49ers in the loss. 

The Panthers had 343 total yards against a mediocre Rams defense.  And they were very pass-happy as they were trying to come from behind the entire game.  That led to three turnovers, which also set up some easy scores for the Rams.  Their defense was actually decent in holding a high-powered Rams offense to just 349 total yards. 

With a total of 49.5 here, the Panthers and Bucs have gone UNDER that number in six of their their last seven meetings, and they are 12-2 to the UNDER 49.5 in their last 14 meetings.  They have combined for 48 or fewer points in 12 of those 14 games.  I think there’s some serious value on the UNDER tonight. 

The UNDER is 6-1 in Bucs last seven games overall.  The UNDER is 12-4 in Bucs last 16 games off a double-digit home loss.  The UNDER is 19-9 in Panthers last 28 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings in Carolina.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday. 

20* Steelers/Patriots NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 49 

These are two teams that rely on their defenses more now that their quarterbacks are aging.  The Patriots were dominant in the playoffs last year defensively and gave up just 20.4 points per game, including 17.9 points per game at home.  They return almost everyone on defense and upgraded on that side of the ball through the draft as well. 

The Steelers were among the league leaders in defense last year giving up 22.5 points and 327.4 yards per game.  They have studs at all three levels of their defense in Cameron Hayward, T.J. Watt, Bud Dupree, Devin Bush and Joe Haden.  It’s a very young defense that is only getting better. 

The Patriots lose both Rob Gronkowski and Chris Hogan.  It’s well documented that Tom Brady puts up much better numbers with Gronk than without him.  So there will be a transition period here, especially with his replacement in Ben Watson suspended for the start of the season.  And Roethlisberger loses both Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell.  Losing Brown really hurts as despite being a distraction, he’s still arguably the best receiver in the league. 

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this series.  Last year, the Steelers beat the Patriots 17-10 at home for 27 combined points.  And we are getting a total here of 49, which is 22 points more than they combined for last year.  I think there’s value in the UNDER as both offenses will be rusty to start, which will be the case across the league just as it was with the Packers and Bears Monday night. 

The UNDER is 6-1 in Steelers last seven vs. AFC opponents.  The UNDER is 36-16 in Steelers last 52 road games.  The UNDER is 9-3 in Patriots last 12 games overall, including 4-1 in their last five home games.  Pittsburgh is 10-1 UNDER in road games against AFC teams over the last three seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Falcons/Vikings UNDER 47 

The Minnesota Vikings have had one of the best defenses in the NFL since Mike Zimmer took over.  That was the case again last season as they ranked among the league leaders in giving up 21.3 points and 309.7 yards per game, including 19.6 points and 268.2 yards per game at home. 

The Vikings didn’t get the boost from Kirk Cousins they wanted last year.  They scored just 22.5 points per game and Cousins struggled down the stretch.  A big problem was the play calling, which is why Zimmer brought in a new offensive coordinator.  He wants to run the ball more and take pressure off Cousins, which will make them more of a ball control offense that controls time of possession and shortens games.  It makes sense to use that strategy and lean on their defense, which is their strength. 

The Falcons have a good offense and a lot of weapons.  They should be pretty solid on that side of the ball again.  But they were terrible defensively last season due to all their injuries.  They get back three key starters on defense that missed at least half the season last year.  I expect the Falcons to be one of the most improved defenses in the NFL now. 

The last two meetings in this series have been defensive battles won by the Vikings.  Minnesota won 20-10 in 2015 for 30 combined points.  The Vikings also won 14-9 in 2017 for 23 combined points.  It’s clear that Zimmer has the Falcons figured out.  And I expect both offenses to be rusty in Week 1 due to a lack of playing time for their starters in the preseason. 

Minnesota is 18-6 UNDER in its last 24 home games during the first two weeks of the season.  Zimmer is 24-11 UNDER in dome games as the coach of Minnesota.  Zimmer is 40-23 UNDER against NFC opponents as the coach of the Vikings.  The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

15* Chiefs/Seahawks NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 56

As the weather has gotten colder, games have become more and more low scoring. And it’s expected to be in the 40’s in Seattle tonight with a 40% chance of rain as well.  While the weather is a big factor to these lower scoring games at the end of the season, the fact that both teams have so much film on one another is ultimately the bigger factor.  It’s just easier on the defenses to stop opposing offenses because they know what to expect at this point in the season. 

The Chiefs have certainly become less potent offensively here down the stretch.  They failed to top 28 points in each of their last two games, and thy were held to just 294 total yards by the Chargers last week.  Now, a lot of this has to do with the weapons the Chiefs are missing.  They don’t have anyone to replace what Kareem Hunt brings to the offense, and top backup Spencer Ware remains out.  Also out is one of their top receivers in Sammy Watkins.  Mahomes just doesn’t have the same weapons he did for most of the season as he was lighting up the NFL. 

I think the Seahawks can control the pace of this game with their running game, which has been one of the best in the NFL.  They have rushed for 154 or more yards in 10 of their last 11 games, while passing for 242 or fewer yards in all but one game this season.  They have been held to less than 205 or fewer passing yards in nine of their 14 games this year, and 217 or fewer in 11 of 14.  Their offensive scheme keeps the clock running, and the Seahawks play at one of the slowest paces in the league.  They know controlling time of possession is their best chance to beat the Chiefs tonight. 

The Seahawks have held six of their last 12 opponents to 17 or fewer points.  They have a good defense that is giving up just 20.9 points per game on the season, and 19.7 points per game at home.  And the Chiefs have actually improved quite a bit defensively here down the stretch themselves.  They have held seven of their last 11 opponents to 24 or fewer points, and I certainly think they can do the same here against this slow, vanilla Seahawks offense. 

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 49.5 or higher (Kansas City) - after going over the total by 35 or more points combined in their last five games, in the second half of the season are 54-23 (70.1%) since 1983.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Chiefs last seven Week 16 games.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

20* Chargers/Chiefs AFC West No-Brainer on UNDER 53 

The Chargers trail the Chiefs by one game in the AFC West standings.  They can move into a first place tie with the Chiefs with a win Thursday night.  It’s safe to say this game will be played close to the vest, especially in a bitter rivalry between these division opponents who are very familiar with one another.  And I think the defenses win out in this one, so I’ll side with the UNDER. 

There’s several reasons to like the UNDER.  The first and most important is that both teams are short on weapons right now.  The Chargers are going to likely be without Melvin Gordon, and backup RB Austin Ekeler is questionable as well.  For the Chiefs, they will be without starting RB Kareem Hunt and backup RB Spencer Ware.  They’ll also be without WR Sammy Watkins, and fellow WR Tyreek Hill was noticeably hobbled with a heel injury against the Ravens on Sunday.  Hill will play tonight, but on a short week I question how productive he’ll be. 

The Ravens were able to slow down the Chiefs last week behind one of the best defenses in the NFL.  And the Chargers have the ability to do the same thing.  This is a Chargers defense that is giving up just 16.7 PPG over their last nine games.  Since getting Joey Bosa back from injury, they’ve been even better.  Bosa and Melvin Ingram combine for arguably the best pass-rushing duo in the NFL. 

The Chiefs do not have a good defense, but it’s worth noting they have been able to hold teams in check in recent weeks as well.  In fact, the Chiefs have allowed 23 or fewer points in seven of their last 10 games overall. I like their chances of holding the Chargers to 23 or fewer tonight as well.  It’s going to be cold and there’s a chance of rain today in Kansas City.  The UNDER is 48-21-1 in Chiefs last 70 home games.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Chargers last nine vs. AFC West opponents. 

The Chargers are 10-1 UNDER vs. bad defensive teams that give up 24 or more points per game in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  Kansas City is 9-0 UNDER In home games vs. teams who allow 5.65 or more yards per play over the last three years.  Los Angeles is 10-1 UNDER in December games over the last three seasons.  The Chargers are 7-0 UNDER off three or more consecutive wins over the last two years.  These four trends combine for a 36-2 system backing the UNDER tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday. 

20* Vikings/Seahawks MNF Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 45.5 

This is essentially a play-in game for the playoffs.  It will have a playoff atmosphere as the Seahawks are 7-5 and the Vikings are 6-5-1, both fighting to earn a wild card spot.  In the case of the Vikings, they’re still alive to win the NFC North.  I think this game is played close to the vest, and I think points will be very hard to come by as both of these defenses control this game. 

I also like the fact that both teams will be looking to run the football, which will keep the clock moving.  The Seahawks have really become a run-heavy team, which has been key to their success.  They have rushed 28 or more times in 10 consecutive games now.  They have more rushing attempts than pass attempts in eight of those 10 games. 

Well, the Vikings have been a great defense overall, and especially against the run.  They rank 7th in rushing defense, giving up just 99.2 yards per game on the ground.  The Vikings are also tied for 2nd in rushing yards per attempt (3.7) allowed this season.  They’ll be able to shut down this Seahawks offense. 

The Vikings know they need to run the ball more if they want to win this time of year.  They have gotten pass-happy in recent losses to the Bears and Patriots.  They should get back to their ground game this week knowing that the Seahawks are vulnerable against the run.  In fact, the Seahawks are tied for last in yards per carry (5.1) allowed this season.  The Vikings would be foolish not to run the ball more and keep that clock moving. 

The most recent meeting between these teams came in the playoffs in 2016.  The Seahawks won that game 10-9 in Minnesota.  The Vikings managed just 183 total yards in that game, while the Seahawks had just 226 total yards.  I don’t think it will be that low-scoring again, but I do think this game stays well UNDER the 45.5-point total. 

The UNDER is 4-0 in Vikings last four games in December.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Vikings last six Monday games.  The UNDER is 6-2 in Seahawks last eight Monday games.  Seattle is 10-2 UNDER in its last 12 home games after scoring 30 points or more in two straight games. 

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 42.5 to 49 points (Minnesota) - an average team (+/- 0.4 YPP) against a poor team (outgained by 0.4 to 1.0 YPP) after eight-plus games are 31-6 (83.8%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday. 

20* Redskins/Eagles MNF TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UNDER 45.5 

This is a division rivalry with a lot at stake.  The Eagles are trying to keep pace with the Redskins and Cowboys in the NFC East, while the Redskins are just trying to stay afloat after a fast start to the season.  I think this game will be played closer to the vest, and I certainly think it favors both defenses than both offenses, which is why I’ll side with the UNDER Monday night. 

Both offenses are really struggling this season.  The Redskins rank 27th in total offense at 331.5 yards per game, while the Eagles are 19th at 353.9 yards per game.  The Redskins are also 27th in scoring offense at 20.0 points per game, while the Eagles are 23rd at 20.9 points per game. 

Both of these teams are led by their defenses.  The Redskins are 7th in scoring defense, giving up just 20.8 points per game.  The Eagles are 15th at 23.0 points per game, but I have no doubt they are better than that with the talent that’s on hand. 

And Philadelphia should have no problem shutting down a Washington offense that has been plagued by injuries along the offenses line, at the skill positions, and at quarterback.  The Redskins are using backup QB Colt McCoy after Alex Smith suffered a gruesome injury a few weeks back.  And he’s getting no protection and terrible play from the skill positions outside of TE Jordan Reed due to injuries. 

Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (Washington) - in a game involving two good defensive teams that allow 18-23 PPG, after allowing 30 points or more last game are 38-13 (74.5%) over the last five seasons. 

Philadelphia is 6-0 UNDER in home games vs. poor pass defenses that allow 7 or more yards per attempts over the last three seasons.  The Eagles are 9-2 UNDER in home games where the total is 42.5 to 49 points over the last two seasons.  Philadelphia is 8-0 UNDER in home games off a division game over the last three years.  The Eagles are 7-0 UNDER in home games after having lost two of their last three games coming in over the last three years.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday. 

15* NFL Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Falcons/Saints OVER 59.5 

Expect a shootout between the Falcons and Saints Thursday night.  They combined for 80 points in their first meeting this season with the Saints winning 43-37 (OT) in Atlanta.  They also combined for 941 total yards in that contest.  I see no reason this game won’t play out the same way in the rematch. 

You already know the Saints are an offensive juggernaut, scoring 37.8 points per game.  They should be able to handle their share.  But they do give up 25.4 points per game at home, and the Falcons should be able to score their share of points as well.  They are scoring 26.3 points per game on the season.  The Falcons have scored at least 31 points in five of their last nine games overall. 

The Falcons are 20-7 OVER in their last 27 games as an underdog of 10 or more points.  The Saints are 11-2 OVER in their last 13 games off five or more consecutive ATS wins.  The OVER is 4-0 in Saints last four vs. NFC South opponents.  The OVER is 19-8-1 in Saints last 28 home games.  The OVER is 16-5 in Falcons last 21 games in a dome.  Take the OVER in this game Thursday. 

20* Giants/49ers MNF TOTAL OF THE MONTH on OVER 43.5 

The San Francisco 49ers are just 2-7 on the season while the New York Giants are 1-7.  I like backing the OVER on teams with nothing to play for but pride in National TV games.  It just seems as though the offenses take chances and there’s more big plays because they have nothing to lose.  And the defenses aren’t prepared for it. 

I was certainly impressed with the 49ers’ offense against the Raiders last week with Nick Mullens making his first start.  They racked up 34 points and 405 total yards against the Raiders.  Mullens went 16-of-22 for 262 yards and three touchdowns.  He’s from Southern Miss, just like Brett Favre, who is one of his biggest fans.  He’s out to prove that he belongs in this league. 

The Giants’ offense has held them back so far.  And you know that offensive-minded head coach Pat Shurmur doesn’t like what he’s seen so far.  So the Giants come off a bye week, and I fully expect them to have a bunch of new wrinkles on offense.  They have the two best playmakers on the field in Odell Beckham and Saquon Barkley.  They should be able to come through with one of their best offensive performances of the season against this 49ers defense.  The 49ers are giving up 26.6 points per game while the Giants are giving up 25.6 points per game this season. 

The 49ers are 6-0 OVER off a non-conference games over the last two seasons.  They are combining with their opponents for 54.0 points per game in this spot.  The OVER is 18-5 in Giants last 23 games after allowing more than 15 rushing yards in they previous game.  The OVER is 4-0 in 49ers last four games following a win.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday. 

15* Raiders/49ers NFL Thursday Total DOMINATOR on OVER 45.5 

We have the 1-7 San Francisco 49ers against the 1-6 Oakland Raiders Thursday night.  It’s two teams who have little to play for but pride the rest of the way.  And I certainly like backing OVERS in games when this is the case.  The offenses almost always show up in these primetime games between bad teams, but whether or not the defenses show up is another story. 

And it’s not like either of these two teams have played much defense up to this point, especially Oakland.  The Raiders are giving up 31.1 points and 407.4 yards per game this season.  The 49ers are allowing 29.5 points and 364.4 yards per game. 

Both offenses have actually been pretty good.  The Raiders are averaging 369.7 yards per game and the 49ers 348.2 yards per game.  Derek Carr is still having a solid season, and with the Raiders losing Marshawn Lynch, he’s actually had to throw more.  That means more points and more clock stoppages without the threat of a running game.   

The 49ers have put up some very good offensive showings against the Chargers and Packers even with CJ Beathard at quarterback.  They had 27 points against the Chargers and 30 against the Packers.  They did not play well against the Rams or Cardinals in the other games that Beathard has started, but now they are up against the worst defense they’ve faced this season in the Raiders tonight.  They should have one of their best offensive outputs of the season. 

I realize the 49ers have some injuries on offense, and the Raiders traded away Amari Cooper, but I’m not worried.  The Raiders have such a bad defense that even though they’re healthy they still can’t stop anyone.  And the 49ers have worse injuries on defense than on offense.  They are missing SS Jaquiski Tartt and starting LB Reuben Foster, not to mention CB Richard Sherman is questionable. 

Plays on the OVER on any team against the total (San Francisco) - in non-conference games, off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival.  The OVER is 18-6-3 in Raiders last 27 games in November.  The OVER is 8-0 in Raiders last eight games in Week 9.  The OVER is 8-3 in 49ers last 11 games overall, including 4-1 in they last five home games.  Take the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Ravens/Panthers UNDER 44 

I’m shocked to see a total this high between two of the best defenses in the NFL in the Carolina Panthers and Baltimore Ravens.  I think there’s a ton of value with the UNDER in this matchup Sunday in what will be a good old-fashioned defensive battle. 

The Ravens lead the NFL in scoring defense at 14.4 points per game allowed.  They are also 1st in total defense at 280.6 yards per game allowed.  The Panthers are 10th in scoring defense at 21.8 points per game, and 13th in total defense at 355.3 yards per game. 

Both of these teams like to run the football and both have suspect quarterback play and weapons.  The Ravens have been a lot worse offensively on the road than at home. They are scoring just 19.7 points per game on the road this season. 

The UNDER is 5-0 in Ravens last five games overall.  They have seen 41 or fewer combined points in four of those five games.  The only exception was the 47 points against New Orleans last week, but that game still stayed UNDER the 49-point total.  And that’s the Saints, not the Panthers, a team with a better defense but a lot worse offense than New Orleans. 

The UNDER is 35-14-2 in Ravens last 51 games after gaining more than 250 passing yards in their previous game.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Ravens last five road games.  The UNDER is 20-8 in Panthers last 28 home games vs. teams who average 260 or more passing yards per game.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

25* MNF PARLAY OF THE YEAR on New York Giants +6/OVER 54 

Reasons the Giants Cover: 

The Giants are coming off an embarrassing 13-34 home loss to the Eagles on Thursday Night Football last week.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them now, so this is a great ‘buy low’ opportunity on them catching more points than they should be at Atlanta this week. 

It also means the Giants get extra time to prepare after playing last Thursday.  I like backing teams with extra prep time because it is a huge advantage in the NFL.  It gives their players time to heal up, and the coaching staff more time to game plan for the opponent. 

And that 13-34 loss to the Eagles was very misleading.  The Giants actually outgained the Eagles by 22 yards in that contest, so there’s no way they should have lost by 21.  In fact, the Giants are only getting obtained by 9.7 yards per game on the season.  That shows me that they are way better than their 1-5 record would indicate.  And with how bad the NFC East has been this season, they still have hope to make a run and win the division. 

The Falcons cannot be trusted to lay this kind of number right now.  They are just 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS this season.  Their two wins were somewhat fortunate as they beat a banged-up Panthers team 31-24 at home with Carolina having a chance to tie on the final drive.  Then last week they got a 57-yard field goal from Matt Bryant with just over a minute left to take a 34-29 lead over the Bucs, and then their defense held in the red zone to save the game.  They covered as 3-point favorites, and I think they are getting too much respect for that win. 

Well, Bryant ruptured his hamstring making that 57-yarder, and he has been one of the most reliable kickers in the NFL for years.  Add him to the laundry list of injuries for the Falcons now.  Also add Calvin Ridley and Mohamed Sanu, two of their three best receivers who left that Bucs game with injuries.  Both are probable to play this week but won’t be at 100%.  And Devonta Freeman remains out with a foot injury. 

The real issue for the Falcons right now is injuries to their defense.  They have lost three starters to season-ending injuries in Keanu Neal, Deion Jones and Ricardo Allen.  Plus, fellow starter Grady Jarrett has missed the last few weeks with an ankle injury and is questionable to return this week.  They simply haven’t been able to overcome these injuries, and their defense has been horrendous, giving up 32.0 points and 417.5 yards per game.  They can’t be trusted to cover this 6-point spread with that defense.  Their defense will make even Eli Manning look like a first ballot Hall of Famer. 

Reasons for the OVER: 

The OVER is 5-0 in Falcons last five games overall.  They have combined for 55, 80, 73, 58 and 63 points in their last five games, respectively.  That’s an average of 65.8 combined points per game, which is roughly 12 points more than this 54-point total.  Also, playing the OVER on Monday Night Football games when the home team has a bye next week is 39-12 in the last 51 tries. 

This is a Falcons defense that has been lit up for 37.5 points and 458.5 yardsper game over the last four weeks.  Saquon Barkley had a monster game against the Eagles last week with 229 yards (130 rushing, 99 receiving) from scrimmage.  He will have a field day against this Atlanta defense.  And the Giants aren’t short on playmakers outside with Odell Beckham and Sterling Shepard. 

The problem for the Giants on offense up to this point is that they’ve played arguably the toughest schedule in the entire NFL, and certainly the toughest schedule of opposing defenses to this point.  They’ve played the Jags, Cowboys, Texans, Saints, Panthers and Eagles.  Five of those six defenses are elite, while the Saints have been playing great on that side of the ball of late.   

This will be the worst opposing defense the Giants have faced by far, and it should lead to their biggest scoring output of the season.  And they still managed 27 points at Houston and 31 points at Carolina in their last two road games, so they have proven their offense can travel. 

Obviously I don’t want the Falcons scoring too much so that the Giants can cover the +6.  But I do think they’ll come close to their season averages of 27.8 points and 397 yards per game in this one.  I’m not naive enough to think the Giants will shut them down because the Falcons do have one of their best offenses in the league.  My best guess is that the Giants win this game in the 31-28 neighborhood.

Note: I don’t recommend betting parlays often because they are not good bets.  Make sure to bet both plays separate at the normal 25* amount.  Whether or not you parlay is up to you.  But I plan on going 2-0. Bet the Giants and the OVER.

20* 49ers/Packers MNF TOTAL OF THE MONTH on OVER 46 

I think this total is lower than it should be Monday night between the Packers and 49ers.  And a big reason for that is because the perception is that both of these offenses struggled in their last games, but the reality is that both of them moved the football at will, it just didn’t show up on the scoreboard. 

The Packers had 521 total yards against the Lions last week, including 423 passing, yet only managed 23 points.  Well a big reason for that was they had to settle for a bunch of field goals, and Mason Crosby missed three field goals and an extra point, which is basically 10 points off the board that they would have had otherwise. 

For the 49ers, they had 447 total yards against the Cardinals, including 300 passing, but only got 18 points out of it.  Their demise were the five turnovers, including two that were returned for touchdowns.  I have to think that both offenses will fare better on the scoreboard this week if they continue moving the ball like they did last week, especially against these two weak defenses. 

Both teams have all kinds of injuries on defense right now.  The Packers lost DE Muhammad Wilkerson to a season-ending injury.  Starting CB Devon House is out, as is starting ILB Jake Ryan.  Fellow OLB Nick Perry is questionable, and CB’s Breshaud Breeland, Kevin King and Jaire Alexander is questionable.  For the 49ers, they could be without starting FS Jimmie Ward, who is questionable with a hamstring injury. 

The 49ers are already giving up 29.2 points per game this season.  The Packers should have no problem moving the football and scoring points on them.  This is an elite Packers offense that is averaging 401 yards per game and 6.1 per play against teams that only allow 338 yards per game.  They have played a tough schedule of opposing defenses, and the 49ers may have the worst defense that they’ve faced yet. 

I know Jimmy G is out with a season-ending injury, but the 49ers have had no problem moving the ball with CJ Beathard at quarterback.  He led the 49ers to 27 points and 364 total yards against the Chargers in his first start two weeks ago.  Then he led them to 447 total yards against a good Arizona defense last week.  I expect the Packers to get to 30 and the 49ers to get to at least 20 in this game, which would easily take care of this 46-point total. 

The OVER is 10-2 in Packers last 12 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 21-5 in Packers last 26 vs. NFC opponents.  The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.  Green Bay is 9-1 OVER vs. bad defensive teams that give up 24 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  The OVER is 7-0 in 49ers last seven games on grass.  The OVER is 4-0 in 49ers last four games overall.  These last three trends combine for a 20-1 system backing the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Eagles/Giants NFC East Total DOMINATOR on OVER 43.5 

Both Philadelphia and New York have shown signs of life offensively in recent weeks.  I think this is a pretty low total at 43.5 tonight for an NFL game that features two offenses with plenty of playmakers.  Look for this game to sail OVER the total Thursday night. 

The Eagles now have three games with Carson Wentz at quarterback.  They have been moving the football just fine with Wentz and should continue to do so against the Giants this week.  They had 382 yards against the Colts, 432 against the Titans and 364 against the Vikings the last three weeks, respectively.  And they have topped 20 points in all three games. 

The Giants got off to a rough start offensively this season against two great defenses in Jacksonvilleand Dallas.  But they have been much sharper the last three weeks.  They scored 27 with 379 total yards against Houston in Week 3.  And last week they scored 31 with 432 total yards against Carolina. 

The biggest problem for the Giants has been their defense, which has given up at least 20 points in every game, including 33 each the last two weeks to the Saints and Panthers.  And it’s not like the Eagles have been great defensively as they have given up 23, 26, and 27 points in three of their last four games coming in. 

The Giants can’t run the ball, but that’s not a problem because the Eagles can’t stop the pass, giving up 277 yards per game.  The Eagles are good against the run, so the Giants won’t even test it that much.  This is a game that will be played mostly through the air, especially with the injuries the Eagles have at running back.  That will lead to more clock stoppages and ultimately more points. 

The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings.  The Giants and Eagles have combined for 63, 51, 43, 51 and 65 points in their last five meetings, respectively.  That’s an average of 54.6 combined points per game, which is roughly 11 points per game more than this 43.5-point total.  There’s clearly value with the OVER here tonight.  Take the OVER in this game Thursday. 

20* Colts/Patriots AFC Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 52 

I’m taking the UNDER in this game Thursday night between the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts.  I’m shocked it’s this high given the injuries to both teams, plus the fact that both offenses just really aren’t playing well at all this season. 

Andrew Luck’s favorite target in T.Y. Hilton is doubtful with a hamstring injury.  Tight end Jack Doyle is also out with a hip injury.  The Colts were missing their two starting tackles last week and could be without them again.  I just don’t know how the Colts are going to be able to move the ball and score points here. 

I know Julian Edelman returns for the Patriots this week from a four-game suspension.  However, they could be without Rob Gronkowski, who left last week with an ankle injury and is highly questionable.  Either way this is a Patriots offense that just isn’t as explosive as in year’s past as they’ll have to rely more on defense this season to win games. 

New England is only averaging 23.7 points and 337.2 yards per game this season.  The defense is giving up just 21.0 points per game, and came through with their best effort of the season last week in holding the Dolphins to just 7 points and 172 total yards.  Expect more of the same here from this defense against the banged-up Colts. 

Indianapolis has been fine offensively in its two domed home games, but outside on grass has been another story.  The Colts beat the Redskins 21-9 in Week 2 for just 30 combined points, and they lost to the Eagles 16-20 in Week 3 for just 36 combined points.  Well, they managed just 281 total yards against the Redskins, and just 209 total yards against the Eagles.  Give their defense credit for giving up just 14.5 points per game in their two road games as this is clearly an improved unit this season. 

Plays on the UNDER on any team where the total is 49.5 or more in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential) are 38-12 (76%) over the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Colts last six road games.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Colts last nine games following a loss.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Patriots last seven games after rushing for more than 150 yards in their previous game.  The UNDER is 13-6 in Patriots last 19 games overall.  The UNDER is 10-2 in Colts last 12 games overall.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Steelers/Bucs ESPN Total DOMINATOR on OVER 53.5 

The Tampa Bay Bucs have been the surprise of the NFL through two weeks.  Not for their defense, but for Ryan Fitzpatrick and the offense.  They are 2-0 behind that offense that scored 48 points against a good Saints defense in Week 1 and followed it up with 27 points against a great Eagles defense in Week 2. 

The Bucs haven’t been able to run the football, so they’ve relied solely on Fitzpatrick, which is great for OVER bettors.  He threw for 417 yards and 4 touchdowns against the Saints in Week 1.  Then he threw for 42 yards and 4 touchdowns with an interception against the Eagles in Week 2.  The Bucs are loaded with weapons at receiver in DeSean Jackson, Mike Evans, O.J. Howard and Chris Godwin.  It’s nice to see this offense living up to their potential. 

The Bucs had one of the worst defenses in the NFL last season.  It appears that hasn’t changed this year, either.  They are giving up 30.5 points and 443.5 yards per game, including 6.8 yards per play thus far.  The Steelers should be able to take advantage and put up a big number here. 

Pittsburgh hasn’t had any problem moving the football on offense this season.  The Steelers are averaging 29.0 points and 473.5 yards per game in their two games against the Chiefs and Browns.  But their defense has been atrocious since losing Ryan Shazier to a season-ending injury last year.  And it has carried over into 2018 as the Steelers are giving up 31.5 points and 388 yards per game this year. 

Star CB Joe Haden missed last week for the Steelers and could be out again this week.  The Bucs are playing without LB Kendell Beckwith and CB Vernon Hargreaves, and they could be without both CB Brent Grimes and DT Vita Vea again this week. 

Plays on the OVER on road teams against the total (Pittsburgh) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, in the first month of the season are 48-19 (71.6%) over the last 10 seasons.  The OVER is 7-1 in Steelers last eight games on grass.  The OVER is 4-1 in Bucs last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday. 

15* Pats/Lions NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 51.5 

Expect plenty of offensive fireworks Sunday night inside the dome at Ford Field between the Patriots and Lions.  This game should see touchdowns in bunches and should easily sail OVER this 51.5-point total.  I rarely take overs this high, but this is a new NFL and this one I believe to be worth it. 

The Lions clearly have a woeful defense again this season.  They are giving up 39 points per game and 6.3 yards per play through two games against the Jets and 49ers.  Offensively, the Lions have no running game again this season, putting everything on Matthew Stafford’s shoulders.  That’s good for OVER bettors.  They are averaging 314 passing yards per game through two games. 

New England has played two tough defenses already to start the season in the Texans and Jaguars.  That’s why the Patriots are only averaging 23.5 points per game thus far.  But the Lions have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and their offense will get right here. 

The problem for the Patriots dating back to the Super Bowl is that their defense just isn’t as good as it has been in year’s past.  They gave up 41 points to the Eagles in the Super Bowl.  Then they gave up 20 to a banged-up Texans offense in Week 1 before allowing a whopping 31 points and 481 yards to a bad Jacksonville offense in Week 2.  Blake Bortles threw for 377 yards and 4 touchdowns on them! 

Detroit is 17-4 OVER in its last 21 home games off a road cover where they lost straight up as an underdog.  Bill Belichick is 14-3 OVER off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite as the coach of the Patriots.  The OVER is 8-2 in Lions last 10 home games.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday night. 

25* NFL Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Eagles/Patriots UNDER 48.5 

Both of these defenses are playing at a ridiculously high level.  Now with two weeks to prepare, that’s an even bigger advantages for the defenses.  I think points will be extremely hard to come by in Super Bowl 52, and this is my favorite total bet of the entire playoffs. 

The Patriots have allowed 17 or fewer points in 11 of their last 14 games overall.  They are giving up just 14.4 points per game during this stretch.  I think Nick Foles and the Eagles’ offense will struggle big-time against this Patriots defense, just as they have down the stretch aside from an aberration against the Vikings. 

The Eagles were held to 19 points against Oakland, 0 against Dallas and 15 against Atlanta in three of their last four games.  They were technically held to 13 points against Oakland because they got a fluke fumble return for a touchdown on the final play of the game.  Sure, they had a good game against the Vikings, but that was clearly the aberration. 

New England’s offense is still good, but this isn’t one of the best offenses of the Belichick era due to some key injuries.  They’ve done a good job of manufacturing offense to TE Rob Gronkowski and their running backs, but their receivers haven’t been all that productive.  And the Patriots have been held to 26 or fewer points in eight of their last 14 games overall. 

The Eagles certainly have the defense to limit what the Patriots can do on offense.  They have one of the best defenses in the NFL, and that defense has really shown its teeth down the stretch.  The Eagles have allow 10, 6, 10 and 7 points in their last four games overall, and average of just 8.3 points per game.  They have an elite pass rush led by Fletcher Cox that will disrupt Tom Brady and company enough to limit them to 24 points or fewer in this game. 

Philadelphia is 22-8 UNDER in its last 30 games when playing with two or more weeks of rest.  New England is 8-2 UNDER vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better this season.  The UNDER is 44-20 in Eagles last 64 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.  The UNDER is 10-4 in Patriots last 14 games overall. 

Plays on the UNDER on any team with a total of 42.5 to 49 (New England) with a poor turnover defense forcing 1 or less turnovers per game, after four consecutive games where they forced 1 or fewer turnovers are 71-38 (65.1%) over the last 10 seasons.  Expect a conservative, run-heavy approach from both teams that will eat up clock and limit possessions as well.  Bet the UNDER in the Super Bowl Sunday. 

20* Chiefs/Titans NFL Wild Card Opener on UNDER 44.5 

The Kansas City Chiefs and Tennessee Titans will play in a defensive battle to open the playoffs Saturday afternoon.  It will be cold in Kansas City on Saturday with a high of 31 degrees and wins from 10 to 15 miles per hour, so the weather will aid this UNDER as well. 

The Chiefs give up some plays between the 20’s, but they buckle down in the red zone, especially at home.  Kansas City is only allowing 16.9 points per game at home this season.  In fact, the Chiefs haven’t allowed more than 20 points at home all year!  They’ve given up 13, 13, 15 and 16 points in their last four home games, respectively. 

The Titans have been held to 23 or fewer points in six of their last seven road games.  They are scoring just 14.7 points per game in their last seven road games.  Their offense has been terrible all season as Marcus Mariota is extremely overrated.  And they no longer have the dangerous 1-2 punch in the backfield as DeMarco Murray has missed time down the stretch and won’t play in this game.  Making matters worse is that no receivers are getting separation for Mariota. 

The Chiefs got off to a tremendous start to the season offensively, but things have cooled off significantly for them on that side of the ball down the stretch.  They are averaging 22.7 points per game in their last seven games overall.  Based on these averages with the Chiefs’ offense down the stretch and the Titans on the road, we’re looking at somewhere in the neighborhood of a 23-15 game, which would be well below the 44.5-point total. 

Tennessee has been playing some very good defense here down the stretch.  They Titans have allowed 22 or fewer points in nine of their last 12 games.  They have allowed 16 points or fewer in four of their final six games.  They are giving up just 19.2 points per game in their last 12 games overall.  They are fully capable of keeping this Kansas City offense in check Saturday. 

The UNDER is 44-19 in Chiefs last 63 home games overall.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Chiefs last five playoff home games.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Chiefs last six home games with a total between 42.5 and 45 points.  Kansas City is 9-1 UNDER in home games when playing with 6 or fewer days’ rest over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Titans last four playoff games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Falcons/Bucs OVER 47.5 

The Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Bucs should easily combine for enough points to sail over this 47.5-point total Monday night.  After all, they have played in some big-time shootouts in all meetings over the past two seasons.  I don’t expect anything to change with perfect weather expected for Tampa on Monday night.  It’s supposed to by 79 degrees with 5-10 MPH winds and a 10% chance of ran as of this writing. 

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings over the past two seasons with combined scores of 55, 71 and 54 points.  That’s an average of 60 combined points per game, which is 12.5 points more than this 47.5-point total.  And that 71-point effort came last year in Tampa Bay. 

None of those results were fluky either as both teams have been able to move the ball at will against one another.  Atlanta has averaged 33.7 points and 450.3 yards per game in the three meetings.  Tampa Bay has averaged 26.3 points and 380 yards per game in the three meetings. 

I think the fact that Atlanta has played two straight unders against two great defensive teams in New Orleans and Minnesota is keeping this line lower than it should be.  But the Falcons should have no problem getting back going offensively this week against one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  Atlanta still has an elite offense that ranks 3rd in the NFL In yards per play (6.0) despite the media perceiving their offense as down this year. 

Tampa Bay ranks 31st in the NFL in total defense, giving up 389.3 yards per game.  The Bucs also rank dead last in yards per play defense, giving up 6.1 yards per play.  They are missing several key players on defense, including arguably their best defender in DT Gerald McCoy, who is out with a biceps injury. 

James Winston returned against the Packers two weeks ago and has actually had no problem moving the ball.  The Bucs racked up 395 total yards against the Packers and 410 against the Lions and arguably should have won both games.  But the lost in overtime to the Packers and fell by a field goal to the Lions only because they committed five turnovers against Detroit.  They have also found a running game, rushing for 165 yards against the Packers and 133 against the Lions. 

Tampa Bay is 6-0 OVER after allowing 7 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last two seasons.  Atlanta is 8-1 OVER after allowing 6 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last two years.  The Falcons are 10-2 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons.  Atlanta is 10-0-1 OVER in its last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 5-1 in Falcons last six Monday night games.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday. 

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Colts/Bengals OVER 41

This is my favorite total in the NFL this week.  I expect the Cincinnati Bengals to hang a big number on this terrible Indianapolis Colts defense in what will be their best offensive performance of the season.  I also expect the Colts to do their part to help contribute to the OVER of what is a very low total of only 41 points.

The Colts rank dead last in scoring defense, giving up 31.7 points per game.  They are 29th against the pass at 300.7 yards per game allowed.  They are 29th in total defense giving up 425.4 yards per game.  They are also 29th on a yards per play (6.4) basis.

Making matters worse for this Colts defense is the fact that they lost three starters to injury in a loss to the Jaguars last week.  That explains why they allowed 27 points and 518 total yards, including 330 passing to Blake Bortles of all quarterbacks.  LB John Simon, S Malik Hooker and CB Rashaan Melvin are all expected to miss this game for the Colts.  LB Anthony Walker is also questionable with a hamstring injury.

Jacoby Brissett has been better than expected this year.  He has handled himself well and has kept his team in games.  The Colts are only averaging 17 points per game, but that's probably all they need here Sunday to help us get the OVER, which I think they can do.  Cincinnati has a good defense, but its numbers are misleading thus far due to playing a very weak schedule of opposing offenses in the Ravens, Texans, Browns, Bills, Steelers and Packers.  They gave up 420 yards and 29 points to the Steelers last week.

The OVER is 3-0 in Indianapolis' three road games this season.  The Colts and their opponents are combining to average 59.0 points per game on the road this season.  They are giving up a stunning 42.7 points per game away from home, which is a number that is actually higher than this 41-point total alone.

Indianapolis is 8-0 OVER in road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in its previous game.  The Colts are 7-0 OVER in road games against conference opponents over the last two years.  The OVER is 9-1 in all Colts road games over the last two seasons.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Cincinnati.  These four trends combine for a 28-1 system backing the OVER.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Chiefs/Raiders AFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UNDER 47

There are several factors that have me backing the UNDER in this game Thursday night between the Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders.  Not the least of which is the fact that this is a division rivalry, and these teams are extremely familiar with one another.

And this head-to-head series has been very low-scoring in recent years.  Indeed, the Raiders and Chiefs have combined for 44 or fewer points in five of their six meetings over the past three seasons.  They combined for 34 and 36 points in their two meetings last year.  And they have averaged 42.0 combined points in their last six meetings and just 36.7 points in their last three.

The Raiders are struggling offensively this season.  They have scored just 10, 10, 17 and 16 points in their last four games overall.  They have combined for 47 or fewer points in five of their six games this season with their opponents as well.  The defense is holding its own, giving up 21 points per game this year.

I think this total has been inflated because of all the early high-scoring games the Chiefs played in.  But then they had a ton of injuries heading into the Steelers game last week, especially to their pass-catchers on offense.  And they proceeded to lose 13-19 for 32 combined points.  Those injuries aren't going to be healed just four days later in this Thursday night game.

The UNDER is 8-1 in Chiefs last nine vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 24-6 in Chiefs last 30 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Raiders last five vs. AFC West opponents.  The UNDER is 18-6 in the last 24 meetings in this series.  Andy Reid is a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game as the coach of the Chiefs.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Colts/Titans NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UNDER 48.5

This is a key AFC South game for both the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans.  They are both 2-3 right now, and the winner will be tied with the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans for first place in the AFC South.  So there will be an extra level of intensity to this contest.

I think that favors the UNDER, along with many other factors.  These teams are obviously extremely familiar with one another since it's a division game.  And I know that previous meetings have tended to be higher scoring, but those were almost exclusively with Andrew Luck in recent years.  Luck is no longer the quarterback due to injury.

Now it's Jacoby Brissett and a sub-par Colts offense that has been dreadful on the road this season.  The Colts are scoring just 13.5 points per game, averaging 231 yards per game and 4.7 per play on the road this season.  I don't expect them to have much success moving the football and scoring points in this game either.

That's because the Colts will be up against a Titans defense that came back strong last week to give up just 16 points and 178 total yards to the Miami Dolphins.  Usually that would have been good enough to win, but the offense was held to just 10 points and 188 total yards.  That was largely due to having Matt Cassell at quarterback.

Now Marcus Mariota is expected to make his return from a hamstring injury.  I think that fact has this total inflated.  Mariota is probably coming back too early because the Titans are coming off two consecutive losses and need a win.  And there's zero chance this will be the same free-wheeling Mariota we've become accustomed to.

Instead, Mariota will be severely limited by that hamstring.  His feet are his biggest weapon, and without them this offense won't hum like it normally would.  Mariota won't be able to make plays outside the pocket like he usually does, and he certainly won't be running for many first downs to bail out the offense when plays break down.

I expect the Titans to try and get back to their bread and butter offensively, which is running the football with DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry.  That's because they've been limited to just 77.5 rushing yards per game in their last two contests, which they have lost.  Their two best running totals this season were two games in which they won.  They know their best formula for success is to run the ball, and that will be the case here Monday.  That will also keep the clock moving.

The Colts found a nice running game last week with Marlon Mack against the San Francisco 49ers.  They rushed for 159 yards on 35 attempts, with Mack accounting for 91 of those yards.  I think they'll be looking to run the football as well to try and limit Tennessee's possessions, which is their best plan of attack.  They can't afford to fall behind big early because they don't have the firepower to come back, as we've seen in their two blowout road losses.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams against the total (INDIANAPOLIS) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, versus division opponents are 71-33 (68.3%) over the last 10 seasons.  With the intensity both defenses will be bringing to the table, and with the limitations of Brissett and Mariota, the only way to look is with the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Steelers/Chiefs UNDER 46

For two teams that aren't in the same division, the Steelers and Chiefs are certainly getting used to playing each other.  They have played six times in the last six seasons, including in the playoffs last year.  The Steelers ended the Chiefs' season with an 18-16 road victory as 2.5-point favorites.

The majority of these meetings have been very low-scoring.  In fact, the UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  The Steelers and Chiefs have averaged just a combined 35 points per game in those six meetings.  That's 11 points less than this 46-point total, which shows the kind of value we are getting here with the UNDER.

I think this total has been inflated due to the Chiefs having the No. 1 scoring offense in the NFL. And the fact that they are coming off a shootout win over the Texans last week.  But the Texans lost arguably their two best defenders in J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus to injuries in the first quarter, which changed the complexion of the game.

The Chiefs came away from that game with some significant injuries of their one, which also makes me like the UNDER this week.  Receiver Chris Conley suffered a season-ending Achilles tear.  Receiver Albert Wilson is questionable with a leg injury.  Alex Smith's favorite target in Travis Kelce is questionable with a concussion that knocked him out of the Texans game.  I like the UNDER either way, but it would just be an added bonus if all three guys were out.

And now the Chiefs are up against a vastly improved Steelers defense, and their offense won't keep humming along this week.  The Steelers are only allowing 17.8 points per game.  They rank 4th in total defense, giving up just 276 yards per game.  And they are 1st against the pass by a mile, giving up a stunning 140 passing yards per game.

The Steelers have held the Chiefs to just 14.5 points per game i their last six meetings, so they clearly have Andy Reid's offense figured out.  And the Steelers haven't lived up to expectations this season offensively.  Big Ten just threw five picks, including two that were returned for touchdowns, to give the game away to Jacksonville last week.

I look for the Steelers to go to a more conservative game plan this week.  They will feed Le'Veon Bell upwards of 30 times in this game to take some pressure off of Big Ten.  That will also keep the clock moving and cut down on the turnovers.  It's a Steelers offense that is only averaging 19.8 points per game this year.  The Chiefs still have a respectable defense themselves, giving up 22.2 points per game this season.

The UNDER is 22-7 in Steelers last 29 road games.  The UNDER is 21-6 in Steelers last 27 games in October.  The UNDER is 13-2-1 in Steelers last 16 games after accumulating more than 350 yards in their previous game.  The UNDER is 39-18 in Chiefs last 57 home games.  Kansas City is 7-0 UNDER versus poor rushing defense that allow 4.5 or more yards per carry over the last three seasons.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Eagles/Panthers NFL Thursday Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 46.5

This is a huge game between a pair of 4-1 teams in the Philadelphia Eagles and Carolina Panthers that could ultimately have home-field advantage implications in the playoffs down the road.  I think this will be a very intense game between two of the best teams in the NFC, and I expect the defenses will have the edge in this one.

I also believe this total has been inflated due to the fact that the Panthers have gone over the total in three straight now.  But that was largely due to playing three poor defenses in the Saints, Patriots and Lions, but now they're up against a vastly underrated Eagles defense.  And the Panthers simply aren't a very good offensive team.

The Panthers only average 21.0 points, 327 yards per game and 5.5 per play against opponents that allow 368 yards per game and 6.0 per play.  The injuries for the Panthers on offense are going to hold them back.  They are without Cam Newton's favorite weapon in Greg Olsen, and C Ryan Kalil, WR Devin Funchess and RB Jonathan Stewart are all questionable for this game.

The biggest reason for Carolina's turnaround this season has been its elite defense.  The Panthers are only allowing 18.8 points per game, 274 yards per game and 5.1 per play.  They have shown tremendous improvement against the pass, giving up just 194 passing yards per game and 5.7 yards per attempt against teams that average 237 yards per game and 6.7 per attempt.

While Carson Wentz has turned the corner and is playing much better this season, a big reason for the Eagles' turnaround has been a defense that only gives up 19.8 points per game.  And now they get their best defensive player in DT Fletcher Cox back from injury this week.  The run defense has been particularly good, allowing just 63 rushing yards per game.  That will be key against a Panthers team that loves to run the football, averaging 29 rushing attempts per game compared to 30 pass attempts, a rare 50/50 split in today's NFL.

Wentz will face his stiffest test yet here against this Panthers defense.  The Eagles have been humming along offensively, but they lost their best linemen in RT Lane Johnson due to injury, and Wentz was not nearly as good without him last year.  In fact, since the start of the 2016 season, the Eagles are 9-2 when Johnson plays, and 2-8 when he does not.  Wentz completes 64.8% of his passes, averaging 7 YPA and a 10:2 TD/INT ratio with him, and 61.2%, 5.9 YPA and 6:12 TD/INT ratio without him.

The Eagles are also running the ball more this season, averaging 31 rushing attempts per game compared to 35 passing.  And the Panthers are great against the run too, giving up 80 rushing yards per game.  I think both offenses are going to be in more 3rd-and-long situations than they're used to because of both defenses ability to stop the run.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CAROLINA) - off a upset win as an underdog, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 59-24 (71.1%) since 1983.  

Carolina is 9-1 UNDER in its last 10 home games after allowing 50 or fewer rushing yards last game.  The Panthers are 71-46 UNDER in their last 117 games as a home favorite.  The UNDER is 39-17 in Eagles last 56 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Pats/Bucs NFL Thursday Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 56

All the talk coming into this game is how poor the defenses have been playing for both the Bucs and Patriots.  That has forced oddsmakers to post an inflated number, and now the value is clearly with the UNDER 56 points in this matchup Thursday night.

The Patriots have been the worst defensive team in the NFL thus far.  What are the chances of it remaining that way moving forward with Bill Belichick at the helm?  Slim to none.  I look for a big effort from the Patriots' defense in this one to try and prove their naysayers wrong.

And you can bet that Tom Brady and company will be trying to help out the defense as much as possible.  And that means slowing down the pace, moving the chains, and keeping the defense off the field.  Look for the Patriots to go to more of a ball control offense moving forward until the defense catches up.

Injuries were a big reason why the Bucs gave up 34 points at Minnesota in Week 3.  But they are expected to have both Kwon Alexander and Brent Grimes in this one, two players they didn't have in that game.  Plus T.J. Ward could return from a quad injury.

The Bucs have a ton of talent on defense and will be fine moving forward.  They have been much better at home this season, limiting their two opponents to just 15.0 points per game.  I believe they'll fare better against the Patriots on that side of the ball than most are expecting.

Tampa Bay has had to rely on the pass too much in the early going, only averaging 85 rushing yards per game.  But they should have more balance now with Doug Martin returning from his three-game suspension.  More runs means the clock will keep moving with fewer incompletions, which aids the under.

Plays on the UNDER on roadteams against the total (NEW ENGLAND) - after going over the total by more than 14 points in two consecutive games, after the first month of the season are 30-9 (76.9%) over the last 10 seasons.  After four straight overs by the Patriots to open the season, this number is simply inflated.  We'll go against the public perception here and back the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

25* MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Redskins/Chiefs UNDER 49.5

The books have set the bar way too high in this matchup between the Washington Redskins and Kansas City Chiefs Monday night.  I full expect a defensive battle here and for points to be much harder to come by than this 49.5-point total would suggest.

One of the surprises of this young season is just how well the Redskins have played defensively.  They are only giving up 20.0 points, 272 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play against teams that average 29.4 points, 348 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  They are holding opponents to 9.4 points, 76 yards and 0.7 yards per play less than their season average.

Of course, nobody has had a better defensive performance than the Redskins had last week in dismantling the Raiders 27-10.  That was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They held the Raiders to just 128 total yards and forced three turnovers.  That's very impressive when you consider how much talent is on that Oakland offense.

The Chiefs have played well offensively thus far, but they won't keep up this pace as this is still a limited offense.  More than anything, the Chiefs have been winning with defense once again.  They are giving up just 19.0 points per game and 5.5 yards per play against teams that average 24.9 points and 6.0 yards per play.  Despite playing some very good offenses, both defenses have really shown well thus far.

Both teams are actually relying very heavily on the run this season, which is going to keep the clock moving.  The Redskins are rushing for 136 yards per game while the Chiefs are averaging 162 yards per game on the ground.  And both quarterbacks have been extremely accurate with the Chiefs completing 77.4% of their passes, and the Redskins 68.0%.  But a lot of that is due to dink and dunk, which is a good way to move the ball down the field, but you won't see type of explosive plays in this one that would normally kill an under.

Washington is a perfect 10-0 UNDER in its last 10 Monday Night football road games.  Kansas City is 8-0 to the UNDER off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The Chiefs are 6-0 to the UNDER in home games versus good offensive teams averaging 350 or more yards per game over the last three years.  These three trends combine for a perfect 24-0 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday night.

20* Cowboys/Cardinals MNF Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 47

There are a lot of factors that point to a low-scoring game Monday night between the Dallas Cowboys and Arizona Cardinals.  I think this 47-point total is too high here, and we'll take advantage and back the UNDER.

The Cardinals have not been sharp on offense since losing David Johnson.  They only managed 13 points in regulation against a terrible Colts' defense last week.  Carson Palmer is a shell of his former self and can't carry a team like he used to.  Plus three of his top targers in WR JJ Nelson, WR John Brown and TE Jermaine Gresham are all banged up and questionable to play Monday.

The Cowboys did not look good defensively against the Broncos last week.  However, they should have much more success on that side of the ball against this limited Arizona offense.  We saw the Cowboys hold the Giants to just 3 points in Week 1, so I don't think they are broken on that side of the ball just yet.  And they are expected to get starting CB Orlando Scandrick back this week after he missed last week.

I expect the Cowboys to get back to running the football on offense.  They got away from their game plan last week and Dak Prescott had to throw a whopping 50 passes against the Broncos last week because they were trailing the whole game.  They only had 14 rush attempts.  They'll try to establish Zeke Elliott early and often, and that will help to chew up clock, extend drives and keep their vulnerable defense off the field.

Arizona does still have one of the elite defenses in the NFL.  The Cardinals finished No. 2 in the league in total defense last season.  They are great at all three levels with tremendous pass rushers, speedy linebackers and arguably the best secondary in the game.  They held the Colts to just 266 total yards last week and 13 points.  They gave up 35 points to the Lions in Week 1, but that was mostly due to the offense committing four turnovers, one of which was returned for a TD.

Dallas is a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER off one or more consecutive overs over the last three seasons.  Arizona is 6-0 UNDER in home games off one or more consecutive unders over the last three years.  The UNDER is 11-3 in Cowboys last 14 road games.  The UNDER is 10-2 in Cardinals last 12 home games.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Cardinals last six Monday games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* Seahawks/Packers NFL Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 51

The books have set the bar too high on this total in the Seahawks/Packers game in Week 1.  I fully expect more a defensive battle than this whopping 51-point total would indicate.  I think the way these two teams finished the season has this total inflated.

This is especially true for the Packers, who closes last season on a 7-0 run to the OVER.  Their defense was extremely banged up down the stretch, and Aaron Rodgers did a great job winning shootouts week after week.  Now that is fresh in the public's mind, but the fact of the matter is the Packers will be much better defensively now that they are healthy to open 2017.  They allowed just 14.0 points per game in the preseason.

The Seahawks closed last season on a 3-1 run to the over, but they also had key injuries to Earl Thomas and other, and they lost 20-36 to the Falcons in the playoffs.  They will get back to being one of the best defensive teams in the NFL now, especially with the addition of Sheldon Richardson via trade.  They allowed just 14.0 points per game in the preseason.

I think the recent head-to-head history in this series shows that there is value with the UNDER.  The Seahawks and Packers have combined for 48, 44 and 44 points at the end of regulation in their last three meetings.  Neither team has been able to get to 400 yards of offense in any of the last five meetings.  Seattle is 30-12 to the UNDER in its last 42 September road games.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

25* NFL Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Falcons/Patriots UNDER 58.5

For starters, this 58.5-point total is the highest in Super Bowl history.  That fact alone shows that there is serious value in backing the UNDER.  The betting public is a big factor in this high total because oddsmakers know that the majority are going to back the OVER.  That's why they are forced to set this total as high as they have.

But with the Super Bowl, teams get two full weeks to prepare for one another.  That is a much bigger advantage for the defenses than it is the offenses.  It also can make the offenses a little rusty to start the game, and it will be too late for them to catch up to the defenses to score enough points to top this 58.5-point total.

New England has the best scoring defense in the NFL, giving up just 15.7 points per game on the season.  I realize they faced ordinary offenses for much of the season, but they have gotten better on this side of the ball as the season has progressed.  They have allowed a total of 53 points in their last five games, an average of just 10.6 points per game.

The Falcons have an elite offense, but what gets overlooked about them is how good their defense has played down the stretch.  In fact, the Falcons have allowed 21 or fewer points in six of their last eight games overall. The lone exceptions were the 29 given up to Kansas City in which 9 of those came from their defense and special teams. They held the Saints to 13 points at the end of three quarters before giving up 19 in garbage time in the fourth. Holding the Seahawks to 20 and the Packers to 21 in their last two games is no small feat.

New England is 6-0 UNDER in road games after gaining 300 or more passing yards in their last game over the past two seasons.  The Falcons are 28-12 UNDER in their last 40 games after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games coming in.  Bet the UNDER in Super Bowl 51.

My Top 5 Super Bowl Prop Bets

#5: Mohamed Sanu Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-135)

My theory here is that the Patriots are going to try and take away Julio Jones and the running backs in the passing game as much as possible, which are the Falcons' biggest weapons.  That will leave Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel open to have big games.  My feeling is that Sanu will have the bigger game.  He has averaged 44 receiving yards per game on the season, so he barely has to go over his season average to cash a winning ticket.  I also like the OVER 4 receptions on Sanu.

#4: No Defensive or Special Teams TD (-200)

The Patriots and Falcons have combined for just 1 special teams TD all season.  That was Dion Lewis on a kickoff return against the Texans in the Division Round.  The Falcons haven't scored a special teams touchdown this year.  And I don't see many turnovers in this game.  Matt Ryan has only thrown 7 interceptions in 18 games, while Tom Brady has only thrown 4 interceptions in 14 games.  I'm willing to lay 2/1 odds that there won't be a defensive or special teams TD in the Super Bowl.

#3: Atlanta More Penalty Yards (-125)

This is a prop that has to do with the Patriots experience in these big games and the Falcons inexperience.  The Patriots won't make many mistakes in Tom Brady's 7th appearance in the Super Bowl.   The Falcons are likely to be antsy especially in the early going as this will be just their 2nd trip to the Super Bowl and 1st for most of their players.  The Patriots were the 5th-least penalized team in the NFL this season.  The Falcons were the 13th-least penalized team.  I think this is a very fair price having to lay only -125 that the Falcons will finish with more penalty yards than the Patriots.

#2: Yardage of Shortest TD Scored UNDER 1.5 Yards (-150)

For starters, the 58.5-point total is the highest in Super Bowl history.  That means there's expected to be a lot of points.  And with more opportunities for touchdowns, there's a good chance one of these teams scores from the 1-yard line.  Keep in mind that a pass interference penalty in the end zone puts the ball at the 1-yard line.  I think that is a very likely scenario where we get a pass interference penalty in the end zone.  And LaGarrette Blount and Devonte Freeman score a ton of touchdowns and rarely get stopped from the 1.  Blount has scored 19 touchdowns and Freeman has scored 14.  Tom Brady is one of the best in the business with the QB sneak, too.

#1: Total First Downs Made: Falcons +1 (-135)

The Falcons have the best offense in the NFL so the fact that they are an underdog to get more first downs makes no sense to me.  This is a Top-10 offense all time.  The Falcons average 34 points and 420 yards per game.  They also average 24.3 first downs per game.  The Patriots average 22.1 first downs, so the Falcons average more than 2 more first downs per game than the Pats on the season.  The way the Pats play defense, they are going to force the Falcons to try and beat them with underneath stuff.  They aren't going to let Julio Jones get over the top for big plays.  Matt Ryan will take what the defense gives him and methodically move the ball down the field while racking up first downs.  The Patriots will also have plenty of success moving the ball against the Falcons, but I think they are more likely to get big plays that will help limit their first downs.

25* Lions/Cowboys MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on OVER 44.5

I think the best bet on this game is the OVER, and I'm clearly not the only one as this total has been bet up from 41.5 to 44.5 already.  But I still don't think it's enough.  These teams will be playing in perfect conditions inside AT&T Stadium, so scoring will be plentiful.  And I think these are two of the most overrated defenses in the NFL.

The only reason the Cowboys have decent defensive numbers is because they have controlled the time of possession with their dominant offense.  But the Cowboys give up 5.6 yards per play this season, which is 19th in the NFL.  The Lions give up 5.8 yards per play, which is 25th in the NFL.  These aren't good defenses.

The Lions don't have a good running game, but Stafford will be primed for a huge day against a Cowboys defense that gives up 68.4 percent completions, 265 passing yards per game and 6.8 yards per attempt this season.  The Cowboys ranks 2nd in rushing offense at 154.5 yards per game, and they should have a huge day on the ground against a Lions defense that gives up 4.2 yards per carry, which ranks tied for 16th in the NFL.

The Lions have been padding their stats defensively against some awful quarterbacks.  In their last 11 games, they have faced Brian Hoyer, Carson Wentz, Case Keenum, Kirk Cousins, Brock Osweiler, Sam Bradford (twice), Blake Bortles, Drew Brees, Matt Barkley and Eli Manning.  Only two of those guys are having good seasons in Cousins and Brees.  The Lions haven't seen an offense as potent as the Cowboys, which averages 26.1 points per game overall, including 27.3 points per game at home.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in this series.  We've seen 44 or more combined points in all six meetings.  The Cowboys and Lions are averaging 58.0 combined points in those six contests, which is nearly 14 points more than this posted total.  A big reason for that is because both of these teams play in domes, so the conditions are always perfect.

Dallas is 46-19 OVER in its last 65 home games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better.   I think we're getting a ton of value here on the OVER because the Lions have gone under the total in eight straight, while the Cowboys have gone under in three straight coming in.  The oddsmakers have over-adjusted for it. We'll see a shootout here Monday night.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Cowboys/Vikings NFL Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 44

It's well documented that the Vikings have one of the worst offenses in the NFL.  In fact, they rank last in the league in total offense at 294.9 yards per game.  They are also last in the NFL in yards per play at 4.8 yards per play.

The Vikings have no running game as they rank last in the NFL at 71.1 rushing yards per game and 2.8 per carry.  That means that a lot has been put on Sam Bradford's shoulders.  He has played well and hasn't turned the ball over much, but he just isn't able to stretch the field.

Last week against the Lions, the average distance of Bradford's pass attempts traveled 3.7 yards past the line of scrimmage.  That was tied for the lowest number of any team during the 2016 season.  Bradford is completing over 70% of his passes in his last four games, but the Vikings only have one play that has gone for 40 or more yards in those four contests.

So, the Vikings are essentially using their short passing game as their running game.  They are completing a high percentage of passes, but they aren't going for much yardage.  This works great for UNDERs because it keep the clock moving, just like a running game would.  But the Vikings just aren't getting many points to show for it.

The good news for the Vikings is that they can be competitive in this game because of their defense.  They rank 2nd in scoring defense (17.5 PPG) and 3rd in total defense at 307.0 yards per game allowed.  They are tied for 3rd with 4.9 yards per play allowed.  They have a tremendous defensive line that will not only slow down Ezekiel Elliott, but also give Dak Prescott more trouble than perhaps he has had all season with their blitzing.

Dallas is one of the few teams that actually runs the ball more than it throws it this season.  That should keep the clock moving as well, just as the Vikings will do with their limited, short passing attack.  I look for both teams to really struggle when they get down in the red zone.  The Cowboys haven't struggled in this area much this season, but the task is much taller against this Vikings' defense.

Dallas is 6-0 UNDER in road games off one or more straight overs over the last two seasons.  Minnesota is 8-1 UNDER  versus good rushing defenses that allow 90 or fewer rushing yards per game.  Dallas is 17-4 UNDER in its last 21 road games vs. good passing defenses that allow 5.7 or fewer yards per attempt.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Cowboys last 10 road games.  The UNDER is 14-2 in Vikings last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 20-8-1 in Vikings last 29 games overall.  The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Vikings/Lions Thanksgiving Day No-Brainer on UNDER 43

I don’t see a whole lot of value in the side of this game as I feel it is priced about right. But I am seeing some value with the total here of 43 points and playing it UNDER the number. I look for this to be a very low scoring game on Thanksgiving Day.

This is a battle between two of the worst offenses in the NFL. The Vikings rank 32nd in the league in total offense at 293.8 yards per game, while the Lions rank 25th at 331.7 yards per game.

The Vikings do have one of the elite defenses in the NFL as they rank 2nd in scoring defense at 17.6 points per game and 3rd in total defense at 306.9 yards per game. The Lions are a respectable 16th in scoring defense at 22.5 points per game and 19th in total defense at 358.2 yards per game.

I think the fact that Arizona and Minnesota combined for 54 points last week has the books setting this number higher than it should be. But that 30-24 final was very misleading. The Vikings were held to just 217 yards of offense, but they got a 100-yard interception return TD and a 104-yard kickoff return TD. The Cardinals only had 290 yards of offense in the game.

These teams are very familiar with each other as they are obviously division opponents, but they also just squared off on November 6th in their first meeting of the season. That game was tied 16-16 at the end of regulation before the Lions won 22-16 in overtime for 38 combined points. The Lions had done nothing on offense until their final two possessions where they drove down for the game-tying field goal in a matter of seconds, and then the game-winning touchdown in overtime.

And this division rivalry has certainly seen its fair share of low-scoring games recently. Indeed, the UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings while exceeding 42 combined points only once. They have averaged just 34 combined points per game in those six meetings, which is 9 points less than this total of 43.

The UNDER is 14-3 in Vikings last 17 vs. NFC North opponents. The UNDER is 7-0 in Vikings last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 19-8-1 in Vikings lat 28 games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in Lions last four games overall.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Bills/Seahawks ESPN Total DOMINATOR on OVER 43

The Seattle Seahawks have been talking about getting their offense going leading up to this game.  At home, I fully expect them to get back on track on that side of the ball.  They are averaging 25.0 points per game at home this season.

Now the Seahawks get to go up against a Bills team that has allowed an average of 34.5 points and 405.5 yards per game in back-to-back losses to the Dolphins and Patriots.  And the Bills will be without their best defensive lineman in Marcell Dareus, while sack leader Lorenzo Alexander will be hampered by a hamstring injury.

The Seahawks have their own concerns on defense this week.  They will be without DE Michael Bennett, who is expected to miss 2-3 weeks with a knee injury.  And S Kam Chancellor is out with a groin injury.  This simply isn't the same defense for the Seahawks that we've been accustomed to.  They have allowed 393.3 yards per game over their past three contests.

The Bills finally look to be healthy on offense this week.  RB LeSean McCoy returns after missing most of the past two games with a hamstring injury.  WR's Marquise Goodwin and Robert Woods are probable, and the team signed Percy Harvin this week to add a playmaker.  He'll be going up against his former team and is a big play waiting to happen.

Buffalo is clearly one of the most improved offenses in the league.  It has scored at least 25 points in six of its past seven games overall.  It is averaging 29.3 points per game over its past seven contests.  I expect both offenses to put up big numbers tonight and for the Bills to do their part in getting this one OVER the total.

Buffalo is 24-7 OVER in its last 31 vs. NFC West opponents.  The Bills are 9-2 OVER off a loss over the past two seasons.  Seattle is 9-1 OVER against teams who commit one or fewer turnovers per game on the season over the past three seasons.  The OVER is 8-0  in the last eight meetings in this series.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Jets/Cardinals ESPN Monday No-Brainer on UNDER 47

The biggest reason I like the UNDER in this game is the coaching matchup. Todd Bowles is the former defensive coordinator of the Arizona Cardinals. He knows what Bruce Arians likes to run, and Arians knows how Bowles likes to attack with his defenses. I think the familiarity of one another’s schemes is going to lead to a low-scoring affair.

Plus, both teams are playing with their backs against the wall with Arizona at 2-3 and New York at 1-4, and they're looking at this as a must-win game. I think that will bring out the best in the defenses as both offenses come with a more conservative approach than normal, trying not to make a big mistake in this pressure-packed game.

I know that’s the case for Ryan Fitzpatrick, who threw threw nine interceptions over a two-game span before last week’s 13-31 loss to the Steelers. Fitzpatrick did a much better job of protecting the ball against the Steelers as he didn’t throw an interception, but he also took the check down a lot more than normal.

He will continue that approach this week, especially now that he’s without his security blanket in Eric Decker for the rest of the season. Not to mention, TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins is questionable with an ankle injury, and center Nick Mangold is questionable with a knee injury that forced him to leave last game.

Don’t expect Carson Palmer to come out guns-a-blazing for the Cardinals, either. He didn’t play last week because of a concussion, and the Cardinals are going to try and protect him in his first game back. Palmer also will take a more conservative approach himself as he has thrown five interceptions against six touchdowns in four games of action.

The Cardinals had success with their running game last week and will lean on David Johnson even more going forward after he rushed for 157 yards and two touchdowns against the 49ers last week. The same can be said for the Jets, who will look to get Matt Forte more involved in the running game, because that’s what worked for them for the first two weeks of the season, and they kind of got away from it the last few weeks.

Both of these defenses are top-notch. I know the Jets have given up their fair share of points this season, but a lot of that has had to do with the poor positions that they have been put in due to Fitzpatrick’s turnovers. I have no doubt that this is still one of the best defenses in the NFL, but a brutal schedule thus far hasn’t allowed that to show as much.

The Cardinals are just as good as they have been in the past under Bowles, and even last year. They are giving up just 20.2 points, 308 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play this season. They rank 8th in the NFL in total defense and 10th in scoring defense. Now they’ll be up against a Jets’ offense that has managed just 11.0 points per game the last three weeks.

It’s not like the Cardinals are lighting it up on offense this year, either. They have been held to 21 or fewer points in three of their five games this season. The only exceptions were Tampa Bay and San Francisco, who committed a combined eight turnovers and set the Cardinals up with many easy scoring opportunities.

The UNDER is 5-1 in Jets last six road games. The UNDER is 6-1 in Jets last seven games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. The UNDER is 5-0 in Cardinals last five Monday games. The UNDER is 7-0 in Cardinals last seven home games. The UNDER is 6-2 in Jets last eight Monday games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* Chiefs/Patriots AFC Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 42.5

This line for this game at -5 looks pretty spot on to me, but if anything I'd lean towards taking the Chiefs.  Instead, I think the UNDER 42.5 is the best play for this game.  Both defenses are top-notch and will make life difficult on the opposing offenses.  As a result, I think this game stays below the 42.5-point total.

The Chiefs have been stupid-good defensively during their 11-game winning streak.  In fact, they have allowed 22 or fewer points in 13 consecutive games now after shutting out the Texans 30-0.  They have allowed an average of just 11.5 points per game over their 11-game winning streak.  They allowed just 205 total yards to Oakland and 226 total yards to Houston in their last two contests.

The Patriots have also been a tremendous defensive team this season.  They give up only 19.7 points per game while ranking 9th in the NFL in total defense at 339.4 yards per game.  Their numbers are even better at home as they allow 17.7 points per game and 312 yards per game inside Gillette Stadium this season.

Kansas City has been winning in spite of its offense.  It ranks just 27th in the league in total offense at 331.2 yards per game on the season.  This offense suffered a big blow when star receiver Jeremy Maclin suffered a high ankle sprain against Houston last week.  He was seen crying while being carted off the field in the 3rd quarter, and even though he's only listed as questionable, I have a hard time believing that he'll be effective at all even if he plays.  Maclin is the one guy the Chiefs couldn't afford to lose on offense because he's Alex Smith's security blanket.

The Patriots have been rather pedestrian down the stretch offensively.  They managed just 313 total yards against Houston, 284 total yards against the Jets, and 196 total yards against the Dolphins in their last three games.  They are expected to get Julian Edelman back, but who knows how effective he'll be.  The problem is the offensive line, which has been decimated by injuries.  Plus, injuries to Dion Lewis and LeGarrette Blount have forced the Patriots to bring Steven Jackson back out of retirement, which just shows how dire they are in the backfield.

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  Three of the last four meetings in this series have seen 42 or fewer combined points.  They've combined for 55, 37, 27 and 42 points.  The Chiefs have held the Patriots in check, limiting them to an average of 20.3 points and 328.5 total yards per game in the last four meetings.  That 55-point effort was fluky as the teams combined for 21 points in the fourth quarter in garbage time, including an INT return for a TD by the Chiefs.  It was a 41-14 game, so the intensity level was not really there in the second half.  This game should be close throughout, so the intensity level will be high for both defenses.

New England is 8-0 to the UNDER off two consecutive road losses since 1992.  Kansas City is 13-3 to the UNDER off six or more consecutive wins since 1992.  The Chiefs are 9-2 to the UNDER vs. good passing teams who average 235 or more passing yards per game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 23-11-2 in Chiefs last 36 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Vikings/Packers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 46

I wish I would have got this UNDER when it opened at 48, but I still like it a lot at 46.  It has been bet down for good reason.  This game between the Vikings and Packers will be played at a high intensity level with first place on the line in the NFC North.  I believe that favors the defenses.

The oddsmakers made a mistake in setting this total too high because the Vikings scored 49 points last week against an awful Giants defense, while the Packers gave up 38 to Arizona.  But the Vikings got a defensive touchdown and only had 368 yards of offense, so there's no way they should have scored 49.  The Packers did give up 381 yards to the Cardinals, but they held them 39 yards below their season average.  The Cardinals also had two defensive touchdowns to pad their number.  So the Packers' defense only essentially gave up 24 points.

One thing that is certain heading into this game is that both offenses are horrible.  The Vikings rank 26th in the NFL in total offense at 326.5 yards per game.  The Packers are 24th at 333.5 yards per game.  In their last two games, the Packers were held to just 293 total yards against the Raiders and 178 total yards against the Cardinals.

The biggest reason for their struggles on offense is an O-Line that is banged up right now as both tackles in Bryan Bulaga and David Bakhtiari are likely to miss this game.  Aaron Rodgers was under duress all game long against the Cardinals, and he finished just 16-of-29 for 77 yards in the loss.

Things won't get any easier for Rodgers against a Minnesota defense that is dominant and just returned three key players in the middle of its defense in S Harrison Smith, LB Anthony Barr and DT Linval Joseph.  The Vikings are only yielding 19.3 points per game this season while ranking 14th in total defense at 343.8 yards per game.

The strength of the Packers this season, believe it or not, has been their defense.  They are only giving up 20.2 points per game this season, including 16.7 per game at home.  They had held six straight opponents to 23 points or fewer and an average of 16.3 points per game prior to giving up 38 to the Cardinals.  Again, only 24 of those were on the defense.

The Packers beat the Vikings 30-13 on the road in their first meeting this season for 43 combined points.  That 30 points was pretty fluky as well as the Packers did it on only 320 yards of total offense.  The Vikings managed just 13 points and 342 total yards in that game.  I believe a similar combined point total of 43 or less is likely in the rematch, especially in the cold weather at Lambeau Field.

Minnesota is 6-0 to the UNDER off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  Green Bay is 9-2 UNDER vs. teams who complete 61% or more of their passes this season.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Vikings last nine vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 11-3 in all Vikings road games over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Vikings last 10 vs. NFC North opponents.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Packers last five home games.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Bucs/Panthers UNDER 47

I'm taking the UNDER in this game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers.  This is a division game, which adds intensity.  It's also an important game for the Panthers as they wants to secure home-field advantage in the NFC.  With the pressure now mounting after a loss to the Falcons last week, I look for a conservative game plan from these Panthers just to try and get a win any way they can.

But what really makes me love this UNDER is the fact that both teams have great defenses.  The Panthers rank 4th in the NFL in total defense, giving up 318.7 yards per game and 5.1 per play against teams that average 358 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  The Buccaneers are 9th in total defense, allowing 338.7 yards per game and 5.3 per play against teams that average 353 yards per game and 5.6 per play.

There are a couple reasons the oddsmakers have set this total too high, which has provided value with the UNDER.  The first is that the Panthers have uncharacteristically scored a lot of points lately, but make no mistake, this is no offensive juggernaut.  The Panthers only average 5.7 yards per play against teams that give up 5.8 yards per play.  They have thrived against poor defenses like the Giants, Saints and Falcons in recent weeks.

The second reason the books have set this number higher than it should be is because the Panthers won the first meeting 37-23 over the Bucs for 60 combined points.  But the Panthers managed 37 points despite gaining just 244 total yards.  That's nearly impossible.  They took advantage of five Buccaneers' turnovers, including two that were returned for touchdowns.  Take away those two, and this game would have only seen 46 combined points.

That high-scoring affair between these teams was a rarity in this rivalry.  Indeed, the Falcons and Panthers have combined for 44 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation (not counting OT) in six of their last seven meetings.  They had combined for 36, 34, 33, 44, 42 and 26 points in their six previous meetings.  That's an average of just 35.8 combined points per game, which is more than 11 points less than this 47-point total.

The Panthers managed just 13 points and 268 total yards against the Falcons last week as they are dealing with a bunch of injuries on offense right now, including a foot injury to RB Jonathan Stewart that will likely keep him out again.  Backup RB Fozzy Whittaker is also expected to miss this game.

Tampa Bay is 11-1 to the UNDER after having lost four or five of its last six games over the last two seasons.  The Bucs are 6-0 UNDER vs. good passing teams that average 7 or more yards per attempt in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Bucs last eight games vs. NFC South opponents.  The UNDER is 12-4 in Panthers last 16 vs. NFC South foes.  The UNDER is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings in Carolina.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

25* MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Lions/Saints OVER 50.5

While I would take the Saints if I was forced to take a side, I don't trust either of these teams against the spread.  I do, however, feel there is great value with the OVER in this game.  Both teams have been eliminated from playoff contention, and when two teams don't have anything to play for, there's a good chance it's going to be a high-scoring, playground-type game.  I foresee that being the case in this one, especially in front of the bright lights on Monday Night Football.

Both teams are used to playing inside a dome, and this will be ideal conditions for each to maximize their offense.  After all, the last four Saints' home games have all exceeded this 50.5-point total.  Indeed, they combined for 52 points with the Falcons (31-21), 101 points with the Giants (52-49), 62 points with the Titans (28-34) and 79 points with the Panthers (38-41) in their last four home games, respectively.  They have combined for an average of 73.5 points and 866 total yards per game with their opponents in their last four home games.  That's 23 more points than this 50.5-point total.

It has been well documented that the Saints are on a record-setting pace for attrition defensively this season.  They give up a league-most 30.5 points and 416.1 yards per game this season while surrendering 6.7 yards per play as well.  And it's not like the Lions have been a whole lot better as they give up 25.8 points and 5.8 yards per play this season, both among the worst marks in the league.
 
The Lions have been better offensively here of late as they are averaging 27.3 points per game in their last three contests.  The Saints still have a high-powered offense that puts up 24.8 points per game while ranking 4th in the NFL in total offense at 395.0 yards per game.  Plus, Drew Brees and company have really enjoyed facing the Lions.

The last four meetings in this series have seen 47, 73, 48 and 72 combined points with the 73 and 72-point performances both coming in New Orleans.  That's an average of 60.0 combined points per game.  The Saints have owned the Lions in the last five meetings, averaging 37.2 points and 503.8 yards per game.  They will certainly do their part in getting this OVER, and I fully expect one of the best offensive outputs of the season from the Lions against this putrid New Orleans defense.

The OVER is 5-1 in Lions last six games on fieldturf.  The OVER is 8-2 in Lions last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing record.  New Orleans is 18-6 to the OVER in its last 24 home games versus poor rushing teams that average 90 or fewer rushing yards per game.  Neither team can run the football, which is going to make this a pass-heavy game, and that favors the over with more clock stoppages.  The Saints are 32nd in the league in giving up 8.5 yards per pass attempt, while the Lions are 23rd at 7.7 per attempt.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

25* NFL Thursday Night TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Seahawks/49ers UNDER 42.5
While I was leaning toward taking Seattle when this line opened at -4, now that it has been bet up to -6.5 I don’t see a whole lot of value with the Seahawks any more. Instead, I believe the value is with the total as it has been bet up from 41 to 42 and 42.5 in some places. I would have liked it at 41 anyway, but now that it has gone up there is even more value here with the UNDER.

These are two 2-4 teams in desperate need of a victory. That will lead to all-out defense from both sides, especially for the Seahawks. They have been bashed in the media because they would be 6-0 right now if not for four blown fourth quarter leads. I look for their defense to take it personally and to shut down the 49ers in this matchup.

Without question, Seattle still has one of the best defenses in the NFL. It is giving up 20.8 points and 319.5 yards per game this season, which isn’t as good as in year’s past, but the Seahawks have played a tough schedule. They will now be up against a San Francisco offense that is one of the worst in the NFL in averaging just 16.7 points and 321.2 yards per game.

The 49ers have slipped a bit defensively this season, but it’s easy to see why because of the schedule. In their last five games, they have faced Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer, Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning and Joe Flacco. Those are five of the best quarterbacks in the NFL today. Russell Wilson is a solid quarterback, but he’s not the passer that those guys are and his biggest weapon is his ability to run the ball.

The 49ers have been battered defensively on the road, but at home it’s been a different story. The 49ers are only giving up 13.3 points per game at home this season. They held Teddy Bridgewater and the Vikings to just 3 points, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to a season-low 17, and Joe Flacco and the Ravens to 20. They will be able slow down this mediocre Seahawks offense Thursday night.

This has quickly become one of the best rivalries in the NFL. These teams have been battling for supremacy not only in the NFC West in recent years, but also to get to the Super Bowl from the NFC. They are extremely familiar with one another as they play a similar brand of football. They both have limited passers at quarterback and prefer to run the ball. They also both have elite defenses, though the 49ers have tailed off a bit this season, except at home.

In fact, the UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between these teams. They have combined for 40 or fewer points in seven of those eight meetings, and they have averaged 30.8 points per game in the last five, all of which have gone UNDER the total. They have averaged 31.8 points per game in the last eight meetings combined. In the last three meetings in San Francisco, they have combined for 22, 36 and 19 points, or an average of 25.7 points per game. To say this has been a low-scoring series would be a massive understatement. I look for it to continue Thursday night.
San Francisco is a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER versus good rushing teams that average 130 or more rushing yards per game over the last three seasons.  It is combining with these teams for an average of 34.3 points per game.  The UNDER is 9-3 in Seahawks last 12 vs. NFC West opponents.  The UNDER is 4-1 in 49ers last five vs. NFC West foes.  The UNDER is 7-1 in 49ers last eight Thursday games.
I believe a big reason this total is set to high is because the Seahawks and 49ers are both 2-0 to the OVER in their last two games coming in.  That has also helped create some nice line value on the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Chiefs/Packers MNF Side & Total Parlay on Kansas City +7/UNDER 49

Reasons for the Chiefs:

Yes, it’s Monday Night Football so the Packers are going to be up for this game, but this is actually a bit of a letdown spot for them. They are coming off an emotional win over the Seahawks as they got their revenge from the NFC Championship Game loss last year. They certainly won’t be able to match the intensity they played with last week.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, will be chomping at the bit to get back on the field. They blew their game against the Broncos last Thursday, and that will have them pissed off coming into this one. It also means that they have three extra days of rest than the Packers, which will be an advantage.

This is still a very good Chiefs football team that will have a great shot to win the AFC West this season. They have one of the best defenses in the NFL as they held the Broncos to just 299 total yards last week. Eric Berry and Derrick Johnson are both back from injury this season, making an already stout Chiefs defense even better. This is a stop unit that allowed just 17.6 points per game last year as it is.

Kansas City’s offense is clearly improved this season with the addition of Jeremy Maclin. The Chiefs finally have a true No. 1 receiver, which they haven’t had in years. The early results are promising as the Chiefs are averaging 25.5 points per game. Look for Jamaal Charles to play an inspired game after blowing the game against the Broncos last week with a fumble in the closing seconds that was returned for a touchdown. It was one of five turnovers for the Chiefs, who simply gave that game away.

Eddie Lacy suffered an ankle injury against the Seahawks and is questionable to play this week. Devante Adams is also dealing with an ankle injury, and as you know, Jordy Nelson is likely out for the season with a torn ACL. Tackle Bryan Bulaga will miss 6-8 weeks with a knee injury as well. This isn’t the same explosive Green Bay offense that we saw last year due to all these injuries. But it is getting treated like it from oddsmakers as 7-point favorites here.

The Chiefs are 6-1 straight up in their last seven meetings with the Packers. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five Monday games. Andy Reid is 46-25 ATS as a road underdog in all games he has coached.  Bet the Chiefs Monday.

Reasons for the UNDER:

The Chiefs know that their best chance to win this game is to control the ball for the majority of the game and limit the turnovers.  I look for a very conservative game plan from them that revolves and Charles and not making mistakes.  I look for them to execute this game plan well and limit the time of possession.

As mentioned with the reasons for the Chiefs, they have a great defense, and the Packers aren't the same offense they were last year with all of the injuries.  Eddie Lacy and Devante Adams are banged up, while Jordy Nelson and Bryan Bulaga are out.  The Packers had unreal health on offense last season, but now the luck has not been on their side in the early going.

There is value with the UNDER because these teams have combined to go 3-1 to the over through their first four games.  The Chiefs went over in both of their games in a 27-20 win over Houston and a 24-31 loss to Denver.  The Packers went over in a 31-23 win over the Bears and under in a 27-17 win over the Seahawks.  But they only managed 322 total yards against the Bears and should not have scored 31 points.

But the Chiefs aren't the type of team that is going to play in shootouts like that every week.  Those two final scores were more aberrations than anything, especially with the five turnovers the Chiefs committed against the Broncos that led to easy scoring opportunities.  There were two defensive touchdowns in that game, which turned a 41-point game into a 55-point game.  The Packers and Chiefs both won't be giving away non-offensive touchdowns like that this week.

Plays on the UNDER on any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (KANSAS CITY) - in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season, after 1 or more consecutive losses are 45-19 (70.3%) since 1983.  The UNDER is 25-10-1 in Chiefs last 36 games following a ATS loss.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

25* NFL Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Patriots/Seahawks UNDER 47.5

With a full two weeks to prepare for one another, the advantage has to go to the defenses in the Super Bowl between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks.  Bill Belichick and Pete Carroll are arguably the two best head coaches in the NFL today, and you can bet that they will leave no stone unturned.

These are also two of the best scoring defenses in the NFL.  The Patriots only give up 19.5 points per game this season, while the Seahawks are tops in the league in allowing just 16.3 points per game.  Both defenses get better as the game goes on, too.  The Seahawks and Patriots have allowed three second-half touchdowns in their past 16 games combined.

Seattle also ranks No. 1 in the league in total defense, giving up just 274.4 yards per game this season.  It has allowed 17 or fewer points in seven of its last eight games overall, and 7 or fewer points in five of those.  The Patriots have allowed 17 or fewer points in five of their last six games overall.

The Seahawks know that they aren't going to win a shootout with the Patriots, so look for them to give Marshawn Lynch a heavy dose of carries in this game to try and move the chains and keep New England's offense off the field.  The Seahawks rank 1st in the league in rushing and will ride both Lynch and Wilson's legs offensively, which will eat up clock and aid the UNDER as well.

New England knows that if it wants any chance of beating Seattle, it is going to have to run the football.  That's because the Seahawks rank 1st in the league against the pass, giving up just 187 yards per game.  That makes this an excellent matchup for the Seahawks because the Patriots rely heavily on the pass to move the ball.  They did show some versatility in running it 40 times for 177 yards against the Colts in the AFC Championship.

This will be the 6th Super Bowl that the Patriots will have played in during the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick era.  Four of the five previously have been low-scoring despite New England coming in with one of the best offenses in the league in each.  They lost to the Giants 21-17 in the 2012 Super Bowl, lost to the Giants 17-14 in 2008, beat the Eagles 24-21 in 2005, beat the Panthers 32-29 in 2004, and beat the Rams 20-17 in 2002. 

As you can see, four of their last five Super Bowls have seen 45 or fewer combined points, and three of those with 38 or fewer.  In 2007, New England scored 36.8 points per game during the regular season, then 14 points in the Super Bowl. In 2011, New England scored 32.1 points per game during the regular season, then 17 points in the Super Bowl.

The UNDER is 4-1 in Patriots last five Super Bowls.  The UNDER is 11-5 in Seahawks last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.  Bill Belichick is 25-11 to the UNDER In road games vs. good offensive teams scoring 24 or more points per game in all games he has coached since 1992.  Belichick is 22-8 to the UNDER versus good defensive teams that allow 285 or fewer yards per game in the second half of the season in all games he has coached since 1992.  Bet the UNDER in Super Bowl XLIX between the Patriots & Seahawks.

Free Prop Bets (From Bovada): My Picks in BOLD

Will there be a defensive or special teams TD scored in the game?

Yes (+155)
No (-190)
Answer: No (-190)

Will the team that wins the coin toss win the game?

Yes (-115)
No (-115)
Answer: Yes (-115) - Note: Seattle and NE are a combined 18-2 when they win the coin toss, 10-6 when they don't this season.

Longest touchdown scored in the game?

Over 44.5 (-115)
Under 44.5 (-115)
Answer: Under 44.5 (-115)

Shortest successful field goal in the Game?

Over 25.5 (-115)
Under 25.5 (-115)
Answer: Under 25.5 (-115)

Which half will have more points scored?

1st half +1/2 (-115)
2nd half -1/2 (-115)
Answer: 1st half +1/2 (-115)

Largest lead of the game by either team?

Over 14 (-120)
Under 14 (-110)
Answer: Under 14 (-110)

Team to have the longest punt in the game?

New England (-115)
Seattle (-115)
Answer: Seattle (-115)

Tom Brady Total Passing Yards?

Over 260.5 (-130)
Under 260.5 (+100)
Answer: Under 260.5 (+100)

Brandon LaFell Total Receiving Yards?

Over 50.5 (-115)
Under 50.5 (-115)
Answer: Under 50.5 (-115)

Marshawn Lynch Total Rushing Yards?

Over 92.5 (-135)
Under 92.5 (+105)
Answer: Over 92.5 (-135)

Which coach will be shown first on TV after kickoff?

Pete Carroll (+100)
Bill Belichick (-140)
Answer: Belichick (-140)

20* Ravens/Steelers Side & Total Parlay on Pittsburgh -3/UNDER 45

Reasons for Steelers:

Getting the Steelers as only 3-point home favorites over the Ravens with the way they are playing right now is quite the steal from the oddsmakers. They have gone a perfect 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall to really earn their way into the playoffs. All four of their wins came by a touchdown or more, and all four were against fellow playoff contenders as well.

It started with back-to-back impressive road wins at Cincinnati (42-21) and at Atlanta (27-20). Then, the Steelers returned home and topped Kansas City 20-12 in a game that ultimately cost the Chiefs a shot at the playoffs. They wound up beating the Bengals 27-17 at home in Week 17 to finish it off. That win was very impressive because it was for the division title, and the Bengals wanted revenge after losing by 21 to the Steelers in the first meeting.

When you look at the numbers, it’s easy to see that the Steelers are an elite team. They rank 4th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 57.7 yards per game. Only the Seahawks, Broncos and Colts have been better, so the Steelers are obviously in some very good company.

The biggest difference for this team in 2014 is that their offense has been unstoppable. The Steelers are putting up 27.2 points per game while ranking 2nd in the NFL in total offense at 410.2 yards per game. Ben Roethlisberger is having an MVP-caliber season, completing 67.1% of his passes for 4,952 yards with 32 touchdowns and only nine interceptions. Antonio Brown may be the best receiver in the game. He has 129 receptions for 1,698 yards and 13 touchdowns.

I just don’t trust the Ravens in this game with the way they have been playing coming in. They seemed a cinch to go 3-0 over their final three games, which came against Jacksonville, Houston and Cleveland. Instead, they struggled against all three, going 2-1 but 0-3 ATS. They only beat Jacksonville 20-12 at home as 14-point favorites, lost at Houston 13-25 as 5-point favorites, and only beat Cleveland 20-10 as 14-point favorites. They trailed for most of the game against the Browns and their third-string QB in Week 17.

Home-field advantage has been huge between these teams over the last two seasons. The home team has won each of the last four meetings during this span. That includes blowout wins for the home teams this season as the Ravens won 26-6 on September 11th, while the Steelers returned the favor with a 43-23 home win on November 2nd.

The Steelers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 January games. The Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Steelers are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Steelers are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. Pittsburgh is 6-0 ATS in its last six home playoff games. Baltimore is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four vs. AFC North opponents.  These last three trends combine for a perfect 17-0 system backing Pittsburgh.

Reasons for the UNDER:

Heavy rain is expected for this game between the Steelers and Ravens.  The forecast is calling for 100 percent chance of rain, and the most significant rainfall is expected to come right before kickoff.  I loved this under even on a perfect day, but the conditions make it an even stronger selection.

Heinz Field has been ranked as the worst grass field in the NFL in the two most recent player surveys.  A big reason for that is the fact that the stadium gets a lot of action as the University of Pittsburgh plays there.  Also, high school playoff games are played at Heinz Field.  The grass field tends to get torn up and often must be resodded.  Here's a quote from wide receiver Torrey Smith about it.

"It's terrible. They need to go ahead and put some turf up there or something," Smith said Thursday. "Apparently the field gets a lot of use. That's good for them as a business, but it's terrible for us playing this late. I'm sure they'll do a great job prepping it."

Perhaps the bigger reason to love the UNDER is the low-scoring nature of this series.  Indeed, 14 of the last 16 meetings between the Steelers and Ravens have seen less than 45 combined points.  The only two exceptions should have been lower-scoring games than they were.  

They combined for 66 points in 2014 in a game where the Ravens had 332 total yards and the Steelers had 376.  They also combined for 55 points in 2011 in a game where the Ravens had 126 total yards and the Steelers had 263.  The Steelers and Ravens have combined for an average of 38.6 points per game in their last 16 meetings.

Both defenses get back arguably their two most important players for this game as well.  Nose tackle Haloti Ngata returns from his four-game suspension from PED use.  Safety Troy Polamalu returns from a two-game absence due to a knee injury.  These are two of the better stop units in the NFL as well.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (PITTSBURGH) - excellent passing team (at least 7.3 PYA) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games, after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt in two straight games are 27-5 (84.4%) since 1983.  Bet the Steelers -3 and the UNDER 45 Saturday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Steelers/Chiefs UNDER 47.5

I am taking the UNDER in this game Sunday between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs.  Unders went 13-3 in the NFL last week and have been a very profitable bet toward the end of the season as they usually are with the change in weather and the defenses having the advantage over the offenses with so much game film by now.  This is easily my favorite total in Week 16.

Pittsburgh has one of the best offenses in the NFL, which is a reason I'm also on the Steelers this week, but it is not going to put up a huge number on this Chiefs' defense.  I look for the Steelers to win in a low-scoring, defensive battle in this one somewhere in the neighborhood of a 24-14 game.

Pittsburgh does not have an elite defense this year, but it does stop the run well, which will be the key to stopping Kansas City.  The Steelers are only giving up 103 rushing yards per game against teams that average 115 rushing yards per game.  They have held the Bengals and Falcons to a combined 183 rushing yards over the last two weeks, and they have allowed less than 100 in five of their last seven.

Kansas City has one of the worst offenses in the NFL.  It ranks 22nd in the league in total offense at 323.0 yards per game.  It relies on Jamaal Charles and the running game as well as the tight ends to move the football.  In fact, the Chiefs have gone 17 straight games without throwing a touchdown pass to a wide receiver.  Veteran Pittsburgh defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau will have an excellent game plan in place to stop Charles and the tight ends and make Alex Smith try and beat them.

All Kansas City games this season have been unbelievably low-scoring.  In fact, the Chiefs have combined with their opponents for 45 or fewer points in 12 of their 14 games this year.  They have played in 10 straight games where 45 or fewer points were scored, making for a perfect 10-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to today's total set of 47.5 points.

The Chiefs do play great defense, ranking 8th in the league in total defense at 331.8 yards per game, and 4th in total defense at 18.1 points per game.  They also defense the pass very well, allowing just 199.2 passing yards per game to rank 2nd in the NFL in passing defense.  Again, the Steelers are not going to put up a ton of points on the Chiefs, but just enough to get the win and cover while keeping the total under the number.

The last two meetings between these teams have been ugly, defensive battles.  In 2012, the Steelers beat the Chiefs 16-13 (OT) at home for 29 combined points.  In 2011, the Steelers also snuck out  with a 13-9 road win for 22 combined points.  While I look for a little higher-scoring game this time around, it won't be enough to exceed 47 points.

Kansas City is 14-4 to the UNDER In its last 18 road games vs. excellent passing teams that average at least 260 passing yards per game.  The Chiefs are 14-4 to the UNDER in their last 18 road games vs. good offensive teams that score 27 or more points per game.  Pittsburgh is 10-2 to the UNDER in its last 12 games after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games.  The UNDER is 40-19-1 in Chiefs last 60 games on grass. 

Mike Tomlin is 8-1 to the UNDER after scoring 25 or more points in three straight games as the coach of Pittsburgh.  Tomlin is 6-0 to the UNDER in home games in the last two weeks of the regular season as the coach of the Steelers.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Titans/Jaguars AFC South Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 40.5

This is a matchup between two of the worst offenses in the NFL Thursday night as the Jacksonville Jaguars take on the Tennessee Titans in an AFC South rivalry game.  I look for the defenses to dominate this contest, especially with how familiar these foes are having to play each other twice a season.

The first meeting was a defensive battle as well.  The Titans beat the Jaguars 16-14 at home for 30 combined points.  It was the second straight really low-scoring meeting in this series after they combined for 36 in their final showdown in 2013.  Six of the last nine meetings between these teams have seen 40 or fewer combined points.

Jacksonville ranks last in the league in scoring offense (15.1 points/game) and 31st in total offense (293.7 yards/game).  Tennessee ranks 29th in the league in scoring offense (16.5 points/game) and 29th in total offense (307.9 yards/game).  As you can see, both offenses have been among the worst in the NFL in 2014, and that will continue tonight.

Tennessee is down to its third-string quarterback in Charlie Whitehurst with both Jake Locker and Zach Mettenberger out with injuries.  Look for a conservative game plan for Whitehurst, who is 1-2 as a start this year.  One of those starts came against Jacksonville in the first meeting.  He led the Titans to just 290 total yards and 16 points in the win, but did not commit a turnover.

The Jaguars have actually been playing some pretty good defense here of late. They held the Giants to 329 total yards, the Texans to just 304 total yards, and the Ravens to just 312 total yards in their last three games, respectively.  It took Baltimore forever to finally pull away for a 20-12 win over Jacksonville last week because of how well the Jaguars' defense was playing.

The Titans came through with one of their best defensive efforts of the season last week.  They held the Jets to just 277 total yards in their 16-11 home loss.  Their defense certainly has the Jaguars figured out as they have held them to a combined 30 points (15.0 points/game) in their last two meetings.

Jacksonville is 6-0 to the UNDER in its last six home games vs. poor passing defenses that allow a completion percentage of 61% or worse.  The Jaguars are 8-1 to the UNDER in their last nine home games vs. poor defensive teams that give up 350 or more yards per game.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Titans last four December games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Jaguars last four December games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Jacksonville.  These five trends combine for a 26-1 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Cardinals/Rams NFL Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 41

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between St. Louis and Arizona.  These are two of the best defenses in the NFL up against two of the worst offenses in the league.  I'll gladly side with the UNDER 41 points in this NFC West rivalry game.

St. Louis has shut out back-to-back opponents.  It is playing as well defensively as any team in the NFL right now.  It held Oakland to 244 total yards and Washington to 206 total yards.  Since Chris Long returned from injury, this stop unit has taken its game to the next level.

One of the most shocking facts about how well this defense is playing is that it has not allowed an opponent to run a play inside its own 20-yard line in three of its past four games. The Rams have now gone 128 minutes and 20 seconds without allowing an opponent to score. Since Week 7, the Rams have 34 sacks, which is the most in the league over that period of time.

Arizona ranks 3rd in the NFL in scoring defense, giving up just 18.3 points per game.  It has allowed 19 or fewer points in five of its last six games overall.  It has been relying on its defense all season, and that stop unit is the only reason it has a 10-3 record right now.  It's certainly not because of the offense.

Arizona ranks 23rd in the league in total offense at 325.3 yards per game.  It has been even worse with Drew Stanton at quarterback here of late.  The Cardinals have been held to 18 or fewer points in each of their last four games.  They are averaging a mere 13.0 points per game in their last four.

St. Louis hasn't been any better offensively.  It ranks just 27th in the league in total offense, averaging only 317.2 yards per game this season.  Yes, the Rams have been putting up some decent scoring numbers here of late, but that has been mostly due to their defense creating easy opportunities.  Arizona only averages 1.0 turnovers per game and won't be giving up easy opportunities.

Yes, Arizona and St. Louis combined for 45 points in their first meeting in a 31-14 Cardinals victory at home.  However, the Cardinals scored two defensive touchdowns over the last 5 minutes to push the final combined score over the number.  The Rams managed just 244 total yards while the Cardinals had 335.  I'll take my chances that there won't be two defensive touchdowns in the rematch.

Arizona is 12-4 to the UNDER as an underdog over the last two seasons.  St. Louis is 6-0 to the UNDER in December games over the last two years.  The UNDER is 21-5-1 in Rams last 27 December games dating back further.  The UNDER is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in this series.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

25* AFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bengals/Steelers UNDER 47

These division rivalry games always tend to be lower-scoring because teams know each other so well having played each other twice a season.  That becomes even more the case later in the year after teams have so much film on their opponents to study.  That extra film work certainly benefits the defenses a lot more than the offenses at this point in the season.  Both teams know each others' personnel, playing style and offensive systems.

Unders in division matchups have gone 575-521 (52.3%) since 2003.  To compare, unders in non-division matchups have gone 883-976 (47.5%) during that same span.  These two stats just show that this theory has some real proof, but a closer look at late-season games with higher totals in divisional matchups is where the real money is made.

Unders in divisional matchups with a total set of 39 and below in December or later are only 48-59 (44.9%) since 2003.  However, unders in divisional matchups with a total set of 39.5 and above in December or later are 161-111 (59.2%) since 2003.  That is some time-tested evidence that I believe carries some real weight here.

This total between Cincinnati and Pittsburgh has been set at 47, which is an enormous number.  Although the sample size is very small, the under in Pittsburgh/Cincinnati games has a record of 5-2 since 2003 when they meet after the start of December, compared to 7-8 in all other meetings during that same span.

I believe this number has been inflated due to Pittsburgh's 35-32 shootout with New Orleans last week.  Obviously, the Saints have a horrible defense but one of the best offenses in the league.  So, a high-scoring game was likely.  Cincinnati has a much worse offense but a better defense than New Orleans.

The Steelers rank 12th in the NFL in total defense, while the Bengals rank 10th in the league in scoring defense.  I believe these are two of the better stop units in the league.  While the Steelers are improved offensively this season, the Bengals are just 18th in the league in total offense.

However, Pittsburgh has done most of its offensive damage at home.  It has been a completely different story on the road.  The Steelers are only averaging 18.3 points per game away from home this season.  They managed just 10 points in Cleveland, 13 points at the New York Jets, 17 points at Jacksonville, and 6 points at Baltimore.

Cincinnati has been playing in some real low-scoring games of late.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Cincinnati's last four games overall.  It has combined with each of its last four opponents for 37 or fewer points, and an average of 31.5 points per game.  That includes 37 combined points at New Orleans on November 16th as the Bengals limited the Saints to just 10 points in a 27-10 win.

Pittsburgh & Cincinnati have combined for 42 or fewer points in six of their last seven meetings.  The only exception was a 30-20 win by the Steelers last year at home in a fluke high-scoring game.  The Bengals only had 279 yards, while the Steelers only had 290 yards in that game.  They have combined for an average of 36.7 points per game in their last seven meetings, which is 10.3 points per game less than this posted total of 47.

Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (PITTSBURGH) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, versus division opponents are 79-37 (68.1%) over the last five seasons.  Cincinnati is 7-0 to the UNDER vs. excellent ball control teams that average 32 or more possession minutes per game after 8-plus games over the last three seasons.

The Bengals are 7-0 to the UNDER vs. good passing teams that average 7.0 or more yards per attempt in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Bengals last four games overall.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Bengals last six games in the second half of the season vs. poor defensive teams that allow 6.0 yards per play or more.  These last four trends combined for a perfect 24-0 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Ravens/Steelers UNDER 48

The Baltimore Ravens versus Pittsburgh Steelers is arguably the biggest rivalry in the NFL today.  This game is always played close to the vest as these players literally hate each other.  The end result is usually a physical, defensive battle, and I expect that to be the case in their second meeting of 2014 Sunday.

A ridiculous 14 of the last 15 meetings between Pittsburgh and Baltimore have seen 43 or fewer combined points.  That's a 14-1 system backing the under pertaining to tonight's total set of 48 points.  The only exception was a 31-24 win by Pittsburgh in the 2010-11 playoffs.  Even that final of 55 combined points was a complete fluke.  The Ravens managed 24 points with only 126 yards of offense, while the Steelers scored 31 with only 263 total yards.

There is clearly a ton of value in backing the UNDER 48 in this game.  I had the under 44 the first time these teams played on September 11th and thought there was a lot of value with that number because that 44-point total was the biggest it had been in this series since 1997.  The Ravens won 26-6 for 32 combined points.  You can just imagine how my eyes lit up when I saw this 48-point total for the first time this week.

The biggest reason this number has been set so high is because both teams went over the total last week and while scoring and giving up a lot of points.  The Steelers beat the Colts 51-34 in the highest-scoring game of the week, while the Ravens lost to the Bengals 24-27.  Those performances were clearly aberrations and not the norm for these teams.  Had they not both played in shootouts, this total would have been set around the 44-point range just as it was in the first meeting.  I believe this total should be set closer to 40 points when you look at the history of this series.

Baltimore still has one of the best defenses in the league.  It is giving up just 16.4 points per game on the season, and it held the Steelers to just a pair of field goals the first time these teams played.  Baltimore did managed 26 points in that game, but the Steelers held the Ravens to a respectable 323 total yards.  

These teams just know each other so well inside and out that points are always hard to come bye.  Neither team is going to pull a fast one on the other.  There are no surprises when they get together.  Both teams bring their hard hats and slug it out, plain and simple.

Plays on the UNDER on any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (PITTSBURGH) - off an upset win by 10 or more as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 25-6 (80.6%) since 1983.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Steelers last eight games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Jets/Patriots AFC East No-Brainer on OVER 44.5

I look for a shootout tonight between the New England Patriots and New York Jets in this AFC East showdown.  This has been a very high-scoring series in recent years and I look for that to continue in their first meeting of 2014.

Indeed, the OVER is 8-1 in the last nine meetings between the Patriots and Jets.  They have combined to score 48 or more points in seven of their last eight meetings, including 51 or more in five of the last six.

The Patriots are back. They went to a no-huddle, up-tempo offense against the Bengals and have put together their two most complete performances of the season as a result. They beat the Bengals 43-17 while putting up 505 yards of total offense. Then last week, they topped the Bills 37-22 while racking up 396 yards.

Tom Brady has been much more efficient in the new-look offense. He completed 23 of 35 passes for 292 yards with two touchdowns and no picks against the Bengals. Brady went 27 of 37 for 361 yards and four touchdowns without a pick against the Bills last week. Those are two of the better defenses in the league, and Brady was able to do whatever he wanted to against them.

The Patriots have two key injuries that will also favor the over.  They lost running back Steven Ridley for the season, so they will certainly be putting the ball in the air a lot in this one.  They also lost arguably their best defensive player in Jarrod Mayo to a season-ending injury last week.  The Jets should have success running the football because of it.

New England is 6-0 to the OVER when playing against a team with a losing record over the last two seasons.  The Patriots are 6-0 to the OVER against teams with a turnover margin of -1 or worse over the last three years.  New England is 6-0 to the OVER after allowing 7 points or less in the first half of two straight games over the last two seasons.  New England is 12-1 to the OVER after having won two of its last three games over the last two seasons.  The OVER is 8-1 in the last nine meetings.  These five trends combine for a 38-2 system backing the OVER.  Take the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Bears/Jets ESPN Monday No-Brainer on OVER 44

I look for a shootout tonight between the Chicago Bears and New York Jets.  Both of theses offense's biggest strengths are the opposing defense's biggest weaknesses, which makes for a good possibility of a high-scoring affair when they get together Monday night.

Chicago is a primary passing team behind Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall & Alshon Jefferey.  They threw for 341 yards in the opener against a good Buffalo defense, and then Cutler threw four touchdown passes last week against the 49ers to bring his team back for the win.

New York relies heavily on the running game.  It has averaged 35 rushes for 179 yards per game and 5.0 per carry thus far, compared to just 30 passing attempts per contest.  Meanwhile, the Bears have thrown it 41 times per game while running it just 17 times per contest.

Chicago's weakness is its run defense, which gives up 161 rushing yards per game and 5.4 per carry so far this year.  They allowed 193 yards on the ground to the Bills in the opener, who are another solid rushing team like the Jets.

New York's weakness defensively its against the pass.  It gave up 310 passing yards to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers last week in a 24-31 loss.  This is seriously one of the worst secondaries in the league, and that will show as the season progresses, especially tonight.

The Bears are 6-0 to the OVER in road games after one or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The OVER is 13-3 in Bears last 16 road games.  The OVER is 15-2 in Jets last 17 Week 3 games.  The OVER is 35-16 in Jets last 51 after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.  The OVER is 5-1 in Bears last six games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Bucs/Falcons NFC South Total DOMINATOR on OVER 44.5

Both the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming off low-scoring games, which I believe had kept this total lower than it should be.  The Falcons are coming off a 10-24 loss at Cincinnati, while the Bucs are coming off a 17-19 home loss to St. Louis.

In fact, the Bucs have faced back-to-back elite defenses in the Panthers and Rams.  That's why I don't think we've seen what this offense behind Josh McCown, stud receivers Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans, as well as the up-and-coming Bobby Rainey can do.  Though Rainey did rush for 144 yards last week against a very solid Rams' front seven.

I look for the Bucs to finally break through with a bunch of points this week against an Atlanta defense that is soft.  The Falcons are giving up a ridiculous 29.0 points and 472.0 yards per game this season.  They haven't been able to stop the run or the pass.  They are allowing 154 yards on the ground and 317 through the air.  They don't even have a sack yet, and they clearly have not improved on this side of the ball over last year.

The Bucs have put up decent numbers defensively, allowing 19.5 points and 336.5 yards per game thus far.  However, when you consider that they've played two terrible offenses with backup quarterbacks, you cannot give them much credit.  Derek Anderson started for Carolina in Week 1, while Austin Davis started for St. Louis in Week 2.  This defense isn't as good as advertised because of it.  Plus, the Bucs are expected to be without Gerald McCoy (hand, doubtful), DE Adrian Clayborn is out for the season, while LB Mason Foster and DE Michael Johnson are both questionable.

Atlanta is clearly improved offensively with the healthy returns of both Julio Jones and Roddy White, as well as the addition of Devin Hester this season.  Steven Jackson is also healthy and running well.  The Falcons put up 37 points on the Saints in their home opener.  They are averaging a whopping 438.5 yards of total offense per game.  It appears that this team is going to have to try and win a lot of shootouts again this season.

When you look at how these teams have fared against one another recently, it's also easy to like the over.  Atlanta and Tampa Bay have combined for 47 or more points in five of their last seven meetings.  Last year, they combined for 54 points in a 31-23 home victory by Atlanta, and 69 points in a 41-28 home win by Tampa Bay.

The OVER is 8-3 in Falcons last 11 home games.  The OVER is 4-0 in Falcons last four home games vs. a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 4-0 in Buccaneers last four Thursday games.  Atlanta is 28-13 to the OVER in its last 41 games off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more.  The Falcons are 43-18 to the OVER in their last 61 after scoring 3 points or less in the first half of their last game.  Take the OVER on this game Thursday.

25* AFC North TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Steelers/Ravens UNDER 44.5

If you play fantasy football, you don't want to start any offensive players when the Steelers and Ravens get together.  You certainly want to start both defenses, but you would be foolish to start any skill player on offense.  That's because these games are always low scoring.

Indeed, each of the last six meetings in this series have seen 43 or fewer combined points.  Dating back further, 13 of the last 14 meetings have seen 43 or fewer combined points.  That makes for a 13-1 (93%) system backing the under pertaining to tonight's total set of 44.5 points.

I just really believe this number has been inflated because both offenses actually played pretty well last week.  However, these teams know each other inside and out, so it's no surprise that when they get together the defenses dictate the game.  That will be the case again here in this first meeting in 2014.

This 44.5 number is the highest total set for a Baltimore/Pittsburgh game since 1997.  There has been a total of 43 set for this rivalry once since 1997, which was the highest over this time.  That tells you alone that there is some value in backing the under 44.5 points tonight.

The UNDER is 9-0 in Steelers last nine games during Week 2.  The UNDER is 11-5 in Steelers last 16 games vs. AFC North opponents.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Ravens last four September games.  The UNDER is 9-1 in Ravens last 10 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.