Tulsa at Toledo Betting Odds Analysis and Free Pick

Bettors can be fooled by assumption-making, especially when it comes to macro-analyzing one league against another. It is assumed that if one conference is weak and another is fairly strong, the best team from the former league could not out-play an above-average unit from the latter.

Maybe that’s true. But it’s not as if conference-strength can be charted out on a simple graph – it is more of a calculus. Western Michigan has proven that the very best teams from the MAC can play with conference winners of all stripes, not just fellow mid-majors. The bottom of the MAC may be the pits, but the ceiling is higher than people think.

The lines are fairly tight for this Saturday’s match-up of Tulsa, a program from the strong AAC conference, and hosting Toledo, possibly the most talented team in the MAC in 2017. How the 2 representatives acquit themselves in this one will affect small vs major-conference lines throughout the remainder of the season.

Who: Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Toledo Rockets

When: Saturday, September 16th, 7 PM EST

Where: The Glass Bowl, Toledo, OH

Lines: Tulsa (+9) at Toledo (-9) / O/U Total: (68)

Betting Odds Evaluation for Tulsa at Toledo

The Rockets’ 2017 schedule seems almost designed to achieve respect for the MAC. Elon was dispatched 47-13 in the opener in a fashion similar to what P5 contenders might have won. In Week 2, Toledo whipped Nevada 37-24.

Now, the step-ladder continues with match-ups against Tulsa, a decent team from a decent league, and ACC power Miami on the following weekend.

Better not look ahead to The U, dear Rockets. The Golden Hurricane may not have impressed in losing to Oklahoma State 59-24 in the season opener, but the offense had its moments against a ranked opponent. Free of the pressure of facing a P5 powerhouse, the Tulsa offense then exploded in a 66-42 win over Louisiana. QB Chad President was commander-in-chief of the passing game, throwing for 243 yards in only 20 attempts.

But what really stood out was the performance of D’Angelo Brewer. The swift RB carried for 262 yards and 3 touchdowns against an overwhelmed Ragin’ Cajun defense.

Free Prediction for Tulsa at Toledo on Saturday

If QB Logan Woodside was the only thing Toledo had going on, we might recommend taking Tulsa and 9 points. But the Rockets can run the ball too, a crucial ingredient in trying to contain Brewer on the ground themselves.

Tulsa may score points of as many as half of its possessions. But the Rocket defense will not get exhausted, with Woodside and the 3-headed backfield of Thompkins-Seymour-Swanson churning out 1st downs and controlling the ball.

Take Toledo to win by 10 points or more and cover the spread.

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