Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Los Angels Rams -3
The San Francisco 49ers are now 0-3 at home this season with upset losses to the Cardinals, Eagles and Dolphins. Their loss to the Dolphins last week really showed the problems that they are having as they fell 17-43 as 8-point favorites.
I have faded the 49ers in their last two games with easy wins on the Eagles and Dolphins, and I’m going to continue to fade them with my free pick Sunday in the NFL for many of the same reasons. No team has been hit harder by injuries than the 49ers.
They are missing more than a handfull of their best players, and they simply don’t have the depth to replace them. They are without CB Richard Sherman, DE Nick Bosa, DT Solomon Thomas, DE Dee Ford, DE Ezekiel Ansah, CB K’Waun Williams, DB Dontae Johnson and LB Kwon Alexander. The list goes on. Their only two wins this season came against arguably the two worst teams in the NFL in the Jets and Giants.
The Rams are proving they are one of the best teams in the NFL two years removed from making the Super Bowl. They have opened 4-1 this season and even held a lead in the final seconds on the road against the Bills in their only loss. And there has been nothing fluky about this 4-1 start because their stats have been dominant.
Indeed, the Rams are averaging 27.2 points, 403.6 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play on offense. They are only giving up 18 points per game, 304.2 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play on defense. So they are outgaining their opponents by nearly 100 yards per game and 1.1 yards per play. That is the sign of an elite team.
No question the Rams want some revenge here too after losing both meetings with the 49ers last year. They don’t mind kicking a division rival when they’re down, and that’s precisely what I expect them to do to the 49ers Sunday night.
The Rams have quietly gone 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall. Los Angeles is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 road games. The 49ers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games. San Francisco is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six vs. NFC West opponents. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the Rams Sunday.
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Rating: 1 Unit NFL Free Pick - Los Angeles at San Francisco
One 49ers concern this week is that they have allowed 18 sacks in five games, the fourth most in the NFL, while the Rams are tied with the Steelers for the league lead with 20 sacks. Garoppolo hasn't been the only 49er in and out of the lineup. The team lost defensive star Nick Bosa for the season with a knee injury and announced this week that standout cornerback Richard Sherman had a setback while rehabbing a hamstring injury. The Rams will take the field in far better shape physically, although they sustained a key loss when rookie safety Jordan Fuller reinjured his shoulder last week in a 30-10 win at Washington and had to be placed on injured reserve. Just a 3-pt loss to Buffalo has marred otherwise perfect season for the Rams. L.A. holding 4-of-5 opponents under 20 points.
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Sunday's FREE WINNER: UNDER in the Rams/49ers matchup.
5:20 pm pst.
There is no love lost between these NFC West rivals. While they do not like each other, they certainly do know each other. Two seasons ago, the Rams took both meetings en route to a Super Bowl slot. Last season, the 49ers took both on their way to a Super Bowl appearance. The 49ers are off back-to-back losses, including last week's embarrassing, 43-17 thumping at the hands of the Dolphins. And knowing they have had just about the softest schedule in the NFL thus far is going to make this team better now, because their schedule gets tougher. Garoppolo and a few other cogs will be back here as Harbaugh will make sure they have a better showing. The Rams are playing solid ball at 4-1. This is a team that runs the ball quite a bit and then passes off the run. As a matter of fact, you will see both teams utilizing the rush here. You are not going to see too many mistakes, they will play tighter. Both teams match up very well with one another's strengths. The UNDER is 5-2 the L7 meetings in San Francisco, 10-2 in the Rams L12 as a favorite and 4-1 in the 49ers L5 as a home dog. TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL and soar over the rainbow folks.Thank you.
I will make the Sunday Night game my Free Pick. First, this will be a huge sharp/square divide as the betting public will be all over the Rams. The Niners, the Super Bowl hangover is in full effect and everyone is quick to jump ship now. Yes, they have looked bad but injuries have played a major role in that. I just think this is a huge overreaction as last week this line was 49ers -3 and we are getting over a full TD move on the Rams based on one game? The Rams travel spot here is about the worst you could ask for as this will be their 4th road game in their last 5 with 3 of those being on the East Coast. They have constantly gone across the country for the last month. Being a prime time game this is a rally the troops type of game and think the 49ers will hang tough which is what this line is suggesting.
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