|San Diego State||-17.0||13|
Jack’s Free Pick Saturday: Nevada +17.5
The Nevada Wolf Pack sit at 5-4 and just one win away from bowl eligibility. They will be highly motivated to get that sixth win tonight and back to a bowl game. I think we are getting tremendous value on the Wolf Pack catching 17.5 points against San Diego State this weekend.
Nevada has some misleading finals here of late that have them undervalued. They beat San Jose State 41-38 but outgained them by 121 yards and nearly blew a 24-3 lead. They were only outgained by 92 yards in a 10-36 loss at Utah State, but they bogged down in the red zone. They lost 3-31 at Wyoming but also bogged down in the red zone after gaining 335 yards against a good Wyoming defense. It’s hard to only score 3 points when gaining 335 yards. But they bounced back with a 21-10 win over New Mexico last week.
This is more of a play against San Diego State than a play on Nevada, though. The Aztecs are overvalued due to their 7-1 record that has them ranked No. 24 in the country. But the Aztecs are far from a Top 25 team. With that ranking comes expectations that are very tough to live up to.
The Aztecs have benefited from playing the 101st-ranked schedule in the country. Of their seven wins, only one of them came by more than 10 points, and that was a 31-10 win over awful New Mexico State. They won by 6 over Weber State, by 14 over Colorado State, by 4 over Wyoming, by 10 over San Jose State and by 3 over UNLV. Nevada can hang with all of those teams, which means they should be able to stay within 17.5 points here against the Aztecs.
It’s just hard to lay this big of a number with a team like San Diego State that has one of the worst offenses in the country. The Aztecs are scoring just 21.7 points per game and averaging 328.7 yards per game. They are being held to 7.0 points, 90 yards per game and 1.1 yards per play less than their opponents normally allow. They don’t even have a running game they can rely on this year as they average just 3.4 yards per carry. And they have their usual poor passing game, averaging just 177 passing yards per game.
San Diego State is 3-11 ATS as a home favorite over the last three seasons. The Aztecs are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games. They are consistently laying too many points at home here of late, and that’s the case against Nevada once again tonight. Bet Nevada Saturday.
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Take Under the Total in the game between the Nevada Wolf Pack and the San Diego State Aztecs. Nevada (5-4) enters this game coming off a 21-10 win over New Mexico last week. The Wolf Pack now go on the road where they have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total. Nevada has also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total agains teams with a winning record. San Diego State (7-1) comes off a 20-17 win at UNLV two weeks ago. The Aztecs have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after their bye week. San Diego State has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing at home. Take the Under. Best of luck — Frank.
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