The second Jon Gruden era in Oakland kicks off on Monday Night Football as the Raiders host the Los Angeles Rams. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:15 EST on Monday, September 10, at Oakland Coliseum. The game will be televised nationally on ESPN.
By checking the Week 1 NFL odds, we see that the Rams are 4.5-point favorites on the road. This game also has an over/under of 49.5 points.
Even on the heels of a 6-10 season in 2017, there’s great excitement surrounding the Raiders now that Gruden is back on the sidelines. Part of that excitement was lost when the team traded star linebacker Khalil Mack on the eve of the season. Nevertheless, there’s a lot of faith that Gruden will get the Raiders back to the top of the AFC West and back to the playoffs. Remember, the Raiders were 12-4 in 2016 when Derek Carr had a breakout season, so a bounce-back season in 2018 is not that far fetched.
The Rams, meanwhile, are trying to avoid a let down after going 11-5 and winning the NFC West last year. Despite losing a home playoff game to the Falcons, last season was definitely a huge step forward for quarterback Jared Goff and one of the most dynamic, young offensive teams in the NFL. Of course, replicating last year’s success is not a given, especially for such a young team. However, many view the Rams as a serious threat in the NFC heading into the season.
Obviously, both teams will want to win their season opener. But there could be a little more urgency for the Raiders. They hit the road for three of the next four weeks after this game, so a home loss to open the season would be a big blow. The Rams, meanwhile, will play three in a row at home after Week 1, so while they would like to win, they are more likely to bounce back from a slow start than Oakland.
Swallowing points for a road favorite is never something to do lightly, but it’s appropriate in this instance. I expect the crowd and the atmosphere to give the Raiders an early edge. But over the course of four quarters, it’ll become clear that the Rams are the far superior team. I’ll take my chances that the Rams will create enough separation to cover the 4.5-point spread.
While the Los Angeles offense gets a lot of the praise, I’m actually more interested in seeing the Rams on defense this season. They were a solid unit last year and poised to be even better this season. Over the offseason, the Rams added cornerbacks Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib, giving them a lethal secondary. Perhaps more importantly, the Rams added Ndamukong Suh and worked out a contract with Aaron Donald. Those two will now play together on the defensive line, making the Rams look scary up front.
With Oakland’s offense, you just don’t know what you’re going to get out of Carr. He was exceptional a couple of years ago but far too inconsistent last season. The Raiders also lost Michael Crabtree over the offseason, replacing him with the aging and injury-prone Jordy Nelson. I wouldn’t consider that an upgrade for the Oakland passing attack.
The Raiders also averaged less than 100 yards per game rushing in 2017. Even with Marshawn Lynch back, Oakland’s running game doesn’t stand out much. Outside of Amari Cooper and tight end Jared Cook, there’s not a lot to fear about Oakland’s offense, especially for teams like the Rams that has outstanding cover corners and a strong defensive line.
The Rams, meanwhile, may have a hard time matching what they did offensively last season. Teams will definitely be tailoring their game plans to keep Todd Gurley contained. However, Goff has a chance to take another forward, in part because he’ll be surrounded by the same supporting cast, namely Gurley, Cooper Kupp, and Robert Woods. The only real difference is that Sammy Watkins has been replaced by Brandin Cooks, which most would consider an upgrade.
With so much continuity, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Los Angeles offense hit the ground running early in the season, even if they didn’t see much of the field during the preseason. The Oakland defense, meanwhile, had a lot of trouble last season both defending the pass and getting after the quarterback. With Mack no longer in the picture, it’ll be even more difficult for the Raiders to accomplish those things. With a team like the Rams that is able to stay balanced offensively, I imagine they’ll struggle defensively.
To be fair, we don’t yet know what kind of impact Gruden may have on this Oakland team. However, he better have something special up his sleeve on Monday to account for the talent gap between the Raiders and the Rams. This game is definitely one of those rare occasions when you can feel confident about leaning toward a road favorite.