At the beginning of the season, who would’ve thought that this game between the New England Patriots and the New York Jets would be for 1st place in the AFC East Division? The Jets have to be the surprise of the season so far. And, they look to pull off the big upset this weekend against their divisional rival the New England Patriots. Kickoff inside MetLife Stadium is at 1 PM ET.
Over the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the Patriots own this series with a record of 8-2. The Pats swept New York last year and beat them by a combined score of 63-20. Will the Jets keep their winning streak going or will the Pats continue their domination against the Jets?
New England (3-2) is coming off a road win against Tampa Bay, where their defense showed significant signs of improvement. Heading into that game against the Bucs, New England was giving up nearly 33 points per game. Against the Bucs, they gave up only 14. The Patriots will look to do the same thing again this week against the Jets, who are averaging only 18 points per game.
New York (3-2) has won 3 straight games and is undefeated at home, sporting a 2-0 record. They went into Cleveland last week and defeated the Browns 17-14. The Jets return home and hope to push their winning streak to 4 straight games. Unfortunately, they are playing against a Patriots team that’s undefeated on the road this season and look poised to get back to doing things the “Patriots Way,” which is blowout teams.
The spread opened with the Patriots favored by 9.5 points, and it has remained unchanged. The Over/Under opened at 47.5 total points and has gone down to 47 total points.
Here we go! With the AFC East division lead on the line, I expect the Patriots to come out and dominate the Jets this week. New York has had a nice little run over the last 3 weeks, but they did that against the Browns, Dolphins and Jaguars who returned from London. So, they didn’t beat anyone that’s really worth bragging about. But, if they really want to prove to the league that they should be taken seriously, then they need to defeat the Patriots this weekend. Unfortunately, I don’t see that happening. In fact, I don’t see this game being close at all.
The Patriots are averaging nearly 30 points per game on offense. They feature an explosive passing attack that averages 340 yards per game. The Jets will not be able to stop this passing attack. Tom Brady will carve up that young, inexperienced Jets secondary and easily throw for over 300 yards and 3 passing touchdowns. And, if the Patriots are able to get anything going on the ground, then it will just be the cherry on top. Right now, the Pats are only able to gain 99 rushing yards per game. So, anything close to that will only add to the overall blowout.
The Jets have found success these last few weeks on the ground and I expect them to try and do it again this week, especially if they want to keep that explosive New England offense off the field. However, the Pats appeared to have fixed their horrible defense and should be able to contain the Jets this weekend in both the passing game and on the ground.
The Jets don’t have receivers that can win one-on-one battles against the Patriots corners of Gilmore and Butler who held star Buccaneers receiver Mike Evans in check last week. I expect the Patriots to keep Josh McCown guessing with pre-snap alignments and movements on defense. Ultimately, I expect the Patriots to build off last week’s success in Tampa, as they shut down any offensive hopes from the Jets.
New England is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games, 12-6 ATS in their last 18 games on the road against the Jets, and 18-9 ATS in their last 27 games against AFC opponents.
The Jets will rise to the occasion for about 1 quarter before the Patriots put their foot on the gas pedal and pull away. I expect big games out of Brady, Hogan, Cooks and the returning Gronkowski. New England has had a few extra days to prepare for this game since they last played on a Thursday night in Week 5. With everyone rest and healthy, I expect the Patriots to win this one 34-10.