Both teams will be trying to build off of last week’s upset over a ranked team as the Oklahoma State Cowboys host the TCU Horned Frogs. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 EST on Saturday, November 2 at Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, Oklahoma. Fans can watch the game on ESPN.
Based on the Week 10 college football betting odds, the Cowboys are 3-point favorites at home. The over/under for the game is set at 64 points.
With an upset win over no. 23 Iowa State last week, Oklahoma State is just one win away from extending Mike Gundy’s 13-year bowl streak to 14 in a row. After suffering back-to-back losses to Texas Tech and Baylor, the Cowboys needed that win. Oddly enough, it was their second win of the season over a ranked team, indicating that Oklahoma State has the talent to match up against top teams.
With a bye next week, the Cowboys don’t want to spend the extra week mulling over another loss. The silver lining is that OSU figures to have winnable games against Kansas and West Virginia late in the year. Of course, they’d prefer to get that sixth win as soon as possible.
TCU also stopped a two-game skid with a surprise win over in-state rival Texas last week. Freshman quarterback Max Duggan stole the show, throwing for 273 yards and running for 72 more to out-play Sam Ehlinger and lead the Horned Frogs to a much-needed win. With the victory, TCU is 4-3 overall and 2-2 in Big 12 play.
With five games left, the Horned Frogs are still on track to play in a bowl game if they can win two of their remaining games. TCU also has a chance to play in the Big 12 Championship Game if they can win out. Of course, TCU is on the road for three of their final five games and still has to play both Baylor and Oklahoma. Nothing will come easy with TCU’s remaining schedule, making it vital that the Horned Frogs keep up their momentum and get another win this week.
Fortunately for TCU, they’ve beaten Oklahoma State in two straight seasons. That includes a 44-31 win in Stillwater two years ago. However, Gundy is 4-3 against Gary Patterson and the Horned Frogs since TCU joined the Big 12.
On paper, this game has all of the makings of a classic Big 12 shootout. I was a little surprised to see the over/under at less than 70 points considering both teams average over 30 points per game. Both teams have plenty of offensive playmakers while also showing a propensity for defensive lapses. That’s the perfect combination to take the over on 64 points.
For TCU, Duggan appears to be the answer at quarterback after Kansas State transfer Alex Delton began the season as the starter. Dugan is athletic enough to create trouble for defenses with his legs while posing more of a threat in the passing game than Delton. While his completion percentage is a little low, Dugan has 11 touchdown passes and just one interception on the season. He’s also thrown for over 200 yards against both Iowa State and Texas, two of the better defensive teams in the Big 12.
I like the threat that Duggan poses for the Oklahoma State defense, which is giving up nearly 34 points per game against power-conference opponents. They were fortunate to get three interceptions last week against Iowa State, helping them to limit the Cyclones to 27 points. But the Cowboys also gave up 45 points to both Texas Tech and Baylor. Against a TCU offense that has balance and a confident quarterback who hasn’t turned it over much this year, the OSU defense could struggle to keep the Horned Frogs under 40 points in this game.
On the other side of the ball, the Oklahoma State offense is probably more potent than the TCU offense. Admittedly, I was down on quarterback Spencer Sanders heading into last week’s game against Iowa State. But the freshman had a great bounce-back game against arguably the best defense in the Big 12. If he can keep it going, the Cowboys are tough to stop, having scored at least 30 points in seven of their eight games this year.
The thing I like most about the OSU offense is that Spencer’s passing skills are only complementary to the running game that features Chuba Hubbard. The sophomore has run for over 100 yards in all but one game this season, scoring 16 touchdowns in eight games while amassing over 1,300 yards. Hubbard on his own gives the Cowboys a chance to score 30-plus points every game.
The X-factor in this game is the TCU defense, which only allows 25 points per game. However, the Horned Frogs conceded 41 points earlier this year against SMU, so they can be vulnerable against elite offensive teams. Keep in mind that most of TCU’s toughest games are still ahead of them, meaning OSU will be the best offensive team they’ve played this year outside of SMU. The Horned Frogs are also going on the road, which could hurt their defense, as was the case when they gave up 49 points against Iowa State a few weeks ago.
With a 3-point spread in favor of the home team, this game is too close to call against the spread. But with both teams possessing quality offenses and the home team having a vulnerable defense, I’m sensing a shootout. As mentioned, both teams average over 30 points per game, so topping 64 total points is a distinct possibility.