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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Match Up |
Pick |
Rating |
Score |
Result |
Profit |
Analysis |
Mavs vs Clippers |
Mavs -2 -110 |
Top Premium |
96-93 |
Win
|
100 |
Show
|
Rotation #513: NBA Tuesday Dallas Mavericks -2 @ Los Angeles Clippers @ 10 ET - The Mavericks did not just lose Game 1, they scored just 8 points in the 2nd quarter and trailed 56-30 at the half in an unreal result! These are not the only quirky stats in the games that was ultimately decided by a 12 point margin. The Clippers also made 18 of 36 three pointers! What I like here is that the Clips outscored the Mavs by 24 points (Dallas made 10 threes) from beyond the arc yet the Mavs lost the game by "only" a 12-point margin. That said, there is some value here because I am confident the Clippers will not be raining threes again with such success in Game 2. It is just not sustainable. What it sustainable is being hungry and physical and doing everything you can to get to the free throw line. The Mavs did have 33 free throw attempts compared to just 13 for the Clips in Game 1. Also, Dallas had the edge in steals plus blocked shots were a huge 9 to 3 edge. It was an ugly loss for the Mavs but there were some interesting takeaways from that defeat and I am expecting a very focus and hungry road team to get some payback here in Game 2. This is true even if Kawhi Leonard does end up playing for LA in this one. Dating back to the regular season, the Mavs have now lost 3 straight games. They are a PERFECT 5-0 SU the last 5 times they have entered a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. All 5 of those SU wins have also come by a margin of more than 2 points. Also, when the Clippers are off a SU win by a double digit margin in which they also held their opponent to 98 or less points, LA has gone 0-4 SU and all 4 SU losses were by at least a 3 point margin. Double perfect spot here! Lay it! DALLAS -2
|
Lightning vs Panthers |
Lightning +1½ -165 |
Top Premium |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
Show
|
Rotation #73: NHL Tuesday Tampa Bay Lightning +1.5 -165 @ Florida Panthers @ 7:30 ET - Worth the price here to have the 1.5 goals. I know the Lightning scored very late in the 3-2 loss in Game 1 but the Panthers had just scored into an empty net just minutes earlier for a 3-1 lead. It was a tie game entering the 3rd period and Vasilevskiy did play very well for Tampa Bay. That was a key after he struggled some late in the season. If Vasilevskiy is back in top from, this is going to be a very interesting series! The Panthers Bobrovsky was 17-29 in his career in the NHL post-season prior to his big playoffs performance last season. That was certainly no fluke last season but, the point is that Florida certainly does not have a big edge here in goal by any stretch of the imagination. Bobrovsky has had his share of post-season ups and downs through the years. TB will come out even hungrier in this one now after losing Game 1 in a very competitive match-up. That leads to line value in a spot like this with a game that is likely to be tight again throughout. The Panthers, it goes without saying, truly are a highly talented team but the Lightning are so disciplined and well coached and they did a great job of limiting the Panthers of scoring chances of quality for long stretches in Game 1. In Game 2 I look for the Bolts to come out strong and put Florida on its heels a bit early. That will shift the momentum a bit here and I expect an early lead and the Bolts to continue to grind. I do expect the upset but could see a tight battle decided on a late goal or even in OT so I am taking advantage of a reasonable price on the puck line in this one. TAMPA BAY +1.5 -165
|
Astros vs Cubs |
OVER 10 -105 |
Top Premium |
2-7 |
Loss |
-105 |
Show
|
Rotation #929: Tuesday OVER 10 in Chicago Cubs vs Houston Astros @ 7:40 ET - Big total here but the wind will likely be blowing out for this one. First toward center and then perhaps toward right-center as the game goes on. The Cubs have hit well at home and have a solid batting average there. Their bullpen ranks only in the middle of the pack for team ERA while the struggling Astros have a bullpen ERA that ranks among the worst in the majors! Considering this match-up also features two struggling starting pitchers, I expect plenty of runs here. Even though Jordan Wicks has been piling up strikeouts he has just to complete 5 innings in any of his 4 starts this season. Wicks has allowed 30 baserunners in those 17 innings as he has given up 21 hits plus walked 9! That spells trouble here against an Astros lineup that will be ready to explode after a shutout loss in their most recent game. As for the Cubs, they have scored an average of 6 runs when at Wrigley Field this season and they are facing JP France in this one. The Astros hurler, just like Wicks, has a high WHIP so far this season as he has given up 26 hits plus walked 8 in his 20.1 innings so far this season. Baserunners and hitter friendly conditions expected throughout this one and that means double digits likely here! Don't let the big number keep you away. This is a great spot for a slugfest. OVER 10 in Chicago Cubs
|
Dinamo Bucuresti vs Botosani |
OVER 2¼ +100 |
Top Premium |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
Show
|
Rotation #206973: Romania Liga 1: Tuesday OVER 2 -135 in FC Botosani vs Dinamo Bucuresti @ 12:30 ET - Botosani out for revenge from a 2-0 home loss the last time these clubs met in the regular season. Now it is a key play-out battle as both clubs looking to avoid relegation. These were two of the worst clubs in the regular season overall but both showed a lot of fight and determination in the latter stages of the regular season and that has continued into the post-season. That said, value here with this total available at 2 goals in the marketplace. Prior to the 2-0 Dinamo win at Botosani, 4 of the last 5 meetings had totaled at least 3 goals and those 4 matches averaged 4 goals apiece. Long-term numbers would support the low total here for these clubs but look at the recent action! Botosani has had 4 of last 5 matches total at least 2 goals and 3 of the 4 totaled at least 3 goals! Also, they have scored at least 1 goal in 6 of last 7 matches at home and averaged scoring 2 goals in those 6 matches! As for Dinamo, after some tough times earlier this season, they have averaged 1 goal scored last 16 matches. The problem for the boys from Bucuresti, and it continues here, is they have allowed 31 goals in their 18 matches away from home this season. You can see why I am expecting both clubs to score here and then note that Dinamo has had only a 20% draw rate dating back to the beginning of season with 7 in 35 matches. As for the hosts, they have had just 5 draws last 24 matches prior to a 1-1 draw in most recent match. 2-1 final is my projection in this one. OVER 2 -135 in Botosani
|
Chelsea vs Arsenal |
OVER 3 -125 |
Top Premium |
0-5 |
Win
|
100 |
Show
|
Rotation #200017: English Premier League: Tuesday OVER 3 -125 in Arsenal vs Chelsea @ 3 ET - Because of the question mark surrounding Chelsea star Cole Palmer (illness) for this match Tuesday, we are getting excellent line value here with this total held down at 3 goals. Two strong clubs meeting here and, of course, Arsenal is a 1 goal favorite on the goal line with good reason. Logically building off that, I just do not see Chelsea being shutout here. They had so many great chances in the 1-0 loss to Manchester City Saturday. They just failed to cash them. That said, one can logically expect at least a 2-1 type match here though I am surely expecting a lot more and with good reason. Chelsea, in EPL matches, has gone over the the total in 9 of last 10 matches. Not only that, all 9 of those matches have totaled at least 4 goals and actually averaged 5 goals apiece! Entering this match, Chelsea is on a 6-0 run to the over in EPL matches with all 6 of those totaling at least 4 goals! The Blues also have seen 4 of last 5 meetings with Arsenal (across all competitions) total at least 4 goals! Arsenal just delivered a clean sheet versus the Wolves but they had allowed 5 goals in last 3 matches across all competitions prior to that 2-0 win. Also, Arsenal is scoring an average of 2.3 goals per match in EPL action this season but Chelsea averaging 2 goals per match in league action and I am sure will be on the attack in this one after the way the match with City played out! Look for 4 or more here and we'll take advantage of this total available at a 3 as of overnight hours heading into Tuesday. OVER 3 -125 in Arsenal
|
PICKS IN PROGRESS
Apr 24 '24, 2:45 PM
Play Type: Top Premium Pick
Soccer |
AFC Bournemouth vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
Play on: OVER 2½ -145
Game Analysis
Rotation #200021: English Premier League Wednesday OVER 2.5 -145 in Wolverhampton vs Bournemouth @ 2:45 ET - Hwang Hee-chan and Matheus Cunha both are expected to be available for the Wolves in this one. The hosts keep shipping too many goals but this is good news for them in terms of boosting their attack. Hee-chan was limited to 45 minutes last week but is ramping up and now Cunha is expected back after missing the match with Arsenal. Gary O'Neil was the manager at Bournemouth last season and now leads Wolverhampton. His Wolves already won the reverse fixture by a 2-1 count and now they are aiming to do the double over Bournemouth by taking this one as well. However, the issue for the Wolves is they have conceded at least a goal in 8 straight matches across all competitions and allowed an average of 2 goals during this stretch. The fact is, however, Bournemouth has not been any better in that department. They have allowed at least 1 goal in 6 of last 7 matches and conceded an average of 2 goals in those 6 matches. These clubs are battling it out in the mid-table position and I would not be surprised, given the above numbers, to see a 2-2 type of match here and a sharing of the spoils. 6 of the last 7 matches for Bournemouth have totaled at least 3 goals and I have liked the aggressiveness on the attack that I have seen from them. Those 6 overs averaged 4 goals apiece! Andoni Iraola, O'Neil's replacement, has his Cherries playing competitive football but their penchant for high-scoring thrillers continues. I don't see that coming to an end here and expect at least a 2-1 type battle in this one. Wolverhampton is getting some guys back this week but Bournemouth continues to pressure opponents on the attack. The Wolves had 21 shots (7 on goal) in the 2-1 win back in October and and will again create plenty of chances here but Bournemouth is playing much better now on the attack than they were back then and that is why a 2-2 thriller could be in the cards here. OVER 2.5 -145 in Bournemouth
Pick Released on Apr 24 at 02:51 am
Apr 24 '24, 2:45 PM
Play Type: Top Premium Pick
Soccer |
Steaua Bucharesti vs Sepsi
Play on: OVER 2½ +103
Game Analysis
Rotation #206969: Romania Liga 1: Wednesday OVER 2.5 +103 in Sepsi vs FCSB @ 2:45 ET - FCSB has a couple of injuries - Phelipe and Chiriches - but that is actually adding some value to this total. We get the over 2.5 without laying any juice because of these injuries. FCSB still has plenty of depth plus these injuries essentially balance each other out. Phelipe is a midfielder and, in theory, this could impact the transition game on the attack but Chiriches is a central defender and is a veteran that was just lost for the season. This certainly could impact FCSB in front of their own goal. Also, 4 of the last 5 meetings between these clubs have totaled at least 3 goals. The last meeting in Sepsi totaled 7 goals! Also, 2 of the other 3 overs (including most recent in Bucuresti) went over the total in the first half! Don't be surprised if this is another one of those here. FCSB is in great shape but still has not locked up the top spot in the league so they will push for the full 3 points in the table here and are favored on the road for a reason. However, Sepsi has scored at least 1 goal in 8 straight matches and has averaged 1.6 goals scored per match during this stretch! FCSB has only been shutout once in last 9 matches and in the other 8 they averaged 1.8 goals scored per match. Given all of the above I simply can not envision a clean sheet for either club. That said, what about the odds of a 1-1 draw? Well, FCSB has only 4 draws in last 19 road matches across all competitions. Sepsi has only 6 draws in last 30 matches! So you are talking about a 20% draw rate roughly. I like the odds of another thriller between these clubs and this one gets to at least a 2-1 final. OVER 2.5 +103 in Sepsi
Pick Released on Apr 24 at 02:18 am
Scott Rickenbach has been working with numbers all his life. He walked away from a career as a CPA to follow his true passion – high level sports analysis. Now he’s bringing both his accounting ability and his years of sports acumen to capping. The results have been undeniable.
The “Bulldog” brings more than a decade of professional capping to every pick he makes. Not a single one of those picks comes without tireless work and analysis. Every one of those picks is documented.
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