The Dallas Cowboys host the Washington Redskins on Thursday, November 24th in a Thanksgiving Day NFC East showdown. The Cowboys went on the road and won the first meeting between these teams 27-23 as 3.5-point underdogs on September 18th.
Dallas (9-1) won its ninth straight game on Sunday with a 27-17 home victory over the Baltimore Ravens as 7-point favorites. They tacked on a field goal in the closing seconds to cover their ninth consecutive game against the spread as well.
Washington (6-3-1) put on a show on NBC’s Sunday Night Football last week. The Redskins beat the Packers 42-24 as 3-point favorites behind 375 passing yards and three touchdowns from Kirk Cousins. Robert Kelley had a career day on the ground as well with 137 rushing yards and three scores.
Kickoff inside AT&T Stadium in Arlington is set for 4:30 EST Thursday afternoon with FOX providing the television coverage. According to the latest NFL odds, Dallas is a 7-point favorite over Washington with a total set of 51 points.
The Cowboys have always been a public team. That has been even more so the case this season as they have actually delivered for backers on a regular basis. Not only are they 9-1 straight up, but they are also 9-0-1 against the spread. They are the only team left in the NFL that has not lost ATS all season.
They have barely escaped with covers in three of their last four games. They covered in OT with a touchdown against the Eagles as 5-point home favorites. The Steelers missed four two-point conversions, otherwise that game would have played out much differently as the Cowboys won 35-30 and covered the 3-point spread. And then they added a field goal in the closing seconds against the Ravens last week to win 27-17 as 7-point favorites.
I think it is time to fade the Cowboys this week. They cannot possibly be more overvalued than they are right now due to their incredible ATS record, and now they’re being asked to lay a full touchdown against a division rival in the Washington Redskins. And I would argue that the Redskins are the next-best team in the NFC East, and not very far behind the Cowboys.
The Redskins just keep getting better and better. After an 0-2 start, they have gone 6-1-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. But unlike the Cowboys, this team continues to lack respect from the betting public and the oddsmakers. They are winning the box score every week, so it has been no fluke.
The Redskins have outgained each of their last six opponents by an average of 101.0 yards per game. They won 16-10 in Baltimore and outgained them by four yards, they won 27-20 over Philadelphia and outgained them by 254 yards, they lost 17-20 at Detroit despite outgaining them by 69 yards, then tied the Bengals 27-27 in London despite outgaining them by 131 yards, they beat the Vikings 26-20 and outgained them by 57 yards, and last week they won 42-24 over the Packers while outgaining them by 91 yards.
The Redskins have outgained each of their last six opponents by an average of 101.0 yards per game.
This Washington offense can score on anyone. The Redskins have put up 451.8 yards per game in their last five games overall. They are second in the NFL with 6.4 offensive yards per play on the season, which is only behind the Atlanta Falcons. Kirk Cousins is playing as well as anyone at the quarterback position, but the key is that they have found a running game.
The Redskins have rushed for an average of 148.6 yards per game in their last five contests. Robert Kelley has emerged as the lead back and rushed for 137 yards and three touchdowns against the Packers last week. He is a fierce runner who doesn’t go down easily. He has rushed for 424 yards and four scores while averaging 5.0 yards per carry this season.
The final point I want to make here is that home-field advantage means nothing in this series. The road team is 6-0 straight up and 5-1 against the spread in the last six meetings. The Redskins are 8-1 ATS in their last nine trips to Dallas. They will be playing with revenge from their 27-23 loss to the Cowboys earlier this season, and I expect this game to be decided by less than a touchdown once again.