The Kansas City Chiefs host the Denver Broncos on Sunday, December 25th in a key AFC West showdown. The Chiefs won a thriller 30-27 in overtime back on November 27th in their first meeting this season.
Kansas City (10-4) suffered a devastating 17-19 home loss to the Tennessee Titans last week. Former Chief Ryan Succop was given a second chance after an Andy Reid timeout, and he stuck it to his former team with a 53-yard field goal on the final play of the game.
Denver (8-6) lost 3-16 at home to the New England Patriots last week. Dropped passes and turnovers did the Broncos in as they just couldn’t punch it in the end zone. They turned it over three times in the loss, including two lost fumbles from punt returner Jordan Norwood.
Kickoff inside Arrowhead Stadium is set for 8:30 EST Sunday night with NBC providing the television coverage. Taking a look at the NFL lines this week, I find Kansas City as a 3.5-point favorite over Denver with a total set of 37.5 points.
The Chiefs are one of the most fraudulent teams in the NFL. They have the raw numbers of a team that should be 4-10 instead of 10-4. They rank 29th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by 43.7 yards per game. Only the Rams, Browns and 49ers have been worse than them in this category, so they are in some pretty terrible company.
The Chiefs have been outgained in six of their last seven games overall. They have been outgained by a total of 619 yards in their last seven games. One of those was their fluke 30-27 (OT) win at Denver. They were outgianed by 191 yards by the Broncos in that contest. Their offense averaged just 3.3 yards per play while the Broncos averaged 6.7 yards per play in that contest. There’s no way the Chiefs should have won that game.
Now the Broncos are going to be out for revenge here in the rematch less than a month later. They are playing for their season right now as they have to win out to have a chance to make the playoffs. They will be the more motivated team as a result, and there’s no question they are the better team in my mind when you look at the numbers.
While the Chiefs have one of the worst offenses in the NFL, the Broncos have arguably the best defense. They rank 2nd in total defense at 310.9 yards per game and 1st in passing defense at 183.0 yards per game. They are also 4th in scoring defense at 18.4 points per game allowed. The Chiefs certainly don’t have the playmakers to scare them here.
The Chiefs have no home-field advantage. They are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games. The road team is 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.
The Chiefs have no home-field advantage. They are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games. That includes recent upset losses to the Bucs 17-19 as 7-point home favorites and the Titans 17-19 as 6-point home favorites. And home-field has meant nothing in this series, either. The road team is 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. The Broncos are 6-1 ATS int heir last seven meetings in Kansas City.
Denver is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 games when revenging a close loss against an opponent by 3 points or less. It is coming back to win 27.4 to 21.7 on average in this spot. The Broncos are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up loss. The Chiefs are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.