NFL Game Preview: Bills vs Broncos Vegas Odds & Pick

The Buffalo Bills continue their playoff push this weekend when they play host the Denver Broncos. Kickoff is at 1:00 EST on Sunday, November 24 at New Era Field, in Orchard Park, New York. Fans in local markets can watch the game on CBS.

Current betting odds list the Bills as 4-point favorites at home. This game also has an over/under of 38 points. Be sure to check out all of the Week 12 NFL betting odds.

Bills vs Broncos Vegas Betting Line & Game Preview

The Bills have hit a couple of speed bumps in recent weeks, but they remain on pace to reach the playoffs for the second time in three seasons. Buffalo got back on track last week with a convincing win over the lowly Dolphins. For what it’s worth, the Bills don’t have a win this year over a team with a winning record. But there’s no denying that they’ve been able to take care of business against weaker teams.

As it stands, the 7-3 Bills remain two games back of New England in the AFC East standings. However, Buffalo does sit atop the AFC Wild Card standings, albeit with four teams within two games of them. The Bills also face a challenging schedule down the stretch, starting with a Thanksgiving Day date with the Cowboys. That makes it crucial for Buffalo to hold serve at home against a 3-7 Broncos team.

Denver is arguably the most unlucky team in the NFL this year. While they have lost seven games, four of them have come by four points or less, so they aren’t far from being at least 5-5 and in the playoff hunt. Of course, they’re coming off what might be their most disheartening loss of the season last week. The Broncos held a 20-0 halftime lead over the Vikings, only to fall apart in the second half and lose 27-23.

One week later, the Broncos have to travel east again for another early game. This game falls in the midst of a stretch in which the Broncos play four of five games on the road, making a late-season run unlikely. However, there is little evidence to suggest that Denver will stop playing hard for first-year coach Vic Fangio.

Free NFL Pick Against the Spread: Bills -4

The Broncos are getting a surprising amount of action in this game and for good reason. As mentioned, most of Denver’s losses have come by four points or less. The Bills also struggled to put away teams early in the season. However, the Broncos face a difficult psychological recovery after blowing a 20-point halftime lead last week, and that’s on top of the travel and early kickoff time this week. Also, Buffalo’s last four wins have all come by at least a touchdown, so I’ll take a chance on the Bills being able to cover at home in a game they need to win.

It’s important to keep in mind that the Broncos are playing an inexperienced quarterback in Brandon Allen whose only game action has come in the last two weeks. The early returns on Allen aren’t too bad, as he has thrown three touchdowns and just one interception. But he also had a miserable second half against the Minnesota defense last week. His completion percentage over two games is under 50%, which isn’t exactly a promising sign.

The silver lining for Allen and the Broncos is that Courtland Sutton has emerged as a viable no. 1 receiver who’s having a great sophomore campaign. However, the Buffalo secondary is good and won’t have to worry about anyone aside from Sutton hurting them. The Bills are also capable of creating takeaways, which is a concern for Denver’s young quarterback. The Broncos might be able to have success against a Buffalo run defense that’s average at best. But explosive plays from Philip Lindsay and Royce Freeman have been a rarity this year, so the Broncos can’t rely on their running game carrying them if Allen doesn’t pose a viable threat.

On the other side of the field, the Denver defense has been a mixed bag this season. After a slow start, they are starting to come around in terms of putting pressure on the quarterback. The Broncos had five sacks and recovered two fumbles against Minnesota last week. On the other hand, they blew a 20-point lead and looked vulnerable on passes down the field, so if they can’t get to the quarterback, bad things tend to happen.

For Buffalo, quarterback Josh Allen looked sharp last week, throwing for over 250 yards and three touchdowns, so his confidence is up. Granted, it was against the Miami defense, but Allen has still gone five straight games without throwing an interception. Rookie Devin Singletary has also added some life to the Buffalo rushing attack. With John Brown serving as a viable deep threat, the Bills have enough playmakers to give the Denver defense trouble.

Admittedly, the Broncos have a fighting chance to win this game. However, they’ve proven that their margin for error in games is small, and having an inexperienced quarterback doesn’t help. I like the Buffalo defense to have a good game and perhaps create a couple of turnovers that should make it easier for the Bills to cover.

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