The season’s first big showdown in the Big Ten is on tap this week as the no. 13 Wisconsin Badgers play host to the no. 11 Michigan Wolverines. Kickoff is set for noon EST on Saturday, September 21 at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wisconsin. The game will be broadcast nationally on Fox.
Oddsmakers view Wisconsin as 3.5-point favorites at home with an over/under of 47 points. Be sure to check out a full listing of this week’s college football odds.
Oddly enough, both teams took last week off to help prepare for this game. That means the last time we saw Michigan, they were escaping a double-overtime game against Army by the skin of their teeth. The Wolverines had to have known they were going to be in for a fight against the Black Knights, which is exactly what happened. There were moments in that game where it genuinely looked like Michigan might lose.
Alas, Jim Harbaugh’s team found a way to survive, even if it cost them a few spots in the polls. Of course, the Wolverines now face what could be one of the most challenging schedules in the country. Five of Michigan’s last 10 games are against top-20 teams, and that doesn’t even include in-state rival Michigan State. In other words, the Wolverines have a long way to go if they want to finally reach the Big Ten title game, and it starts this weekend in Wisconsin.
As for the Badgers, they had two comfortable wins before last week’s bye. In fact, those wins were so comfortable that Wisconsin still hasn’t allowed a point this season. The Badgers won at South Florida 49-0 to begin their season and trampled Central Michigan the following week 61-0. One can debate the level of difficulty of those games, but it’s still an impressive accomplishment to hold two FBS programs to zero points in back-to-back weeks.
After those two games, Wisconsin looks like the team to beat in the Big Ten West division. However, the Badgers also face a difficult schedule, with both Michigan and Ohio State as crossover opponents with the East division. Even if Wisconsin holds serve against the rest of the teams in the West division, losing those two games could cost them a spot in the conference title game, so it’s critical that the Badgers take care of business at home this weekend.
After an extended hiatus, Michigan and Wisconsin are now meeting for the fourth straight season. The home team has won the previous three games, including a 38-13 blowout win for the Wolverines last season. Of course, it was the Badgers who won 24-10 when Michigan visited Camp Randall two years ago, so home-field advantage does seem to matter when these two teams get together.
This game is tough to pick because you don’t know what tricks the teams have up their sleeves with the extra week off, especially Harbaugh on the Michigan sidelines. But I have to respect what the Badgers did in their first two games, even against a couple of bad teams. They look good on both sides of the ball while Michigan has some concerns. At home, I think Wisconsin can win and cover the 3.5-point spread.
Never in the last few seasons have I doubted how good Michigan is on defense. But the Wisconsin rushing attack looks like vintage Wisconsin. The Badgers look like the team that always has one of the best running backs in the country, and Jonathan Taylor is that running back yet again. His numbers aren’t even that impressive because he hasn’t been needed in the second half of games. But Taylor rushed for over 4,000 yards during his first two seasons at Wisconsin, and the offensive line in front of him looks poised to carry him to another 2,000-yard season.
To my surprise, quarterback Jack Coan has played well early in the year, albeit against bad teams. He’s tossed five touchdown passes with no interceptions through two games, doing so without trying to do too much. The Badgers will continue to lean on Taylor and the running back, so as long as Coan can play mistake-free football, Wisconsin will be in good shape.
Meanwhile, the Michigan offense is going through some growing pains as they transition to a new offensive scheme. While the Army triple-option offense presents some challenges, I expected the Michigan offense to push around the Army defensive line. But that didn’t exactly happen. Despite three rushing touchdowns and 100 yards from Zach Charbonnet, the Wolverines averaged just 2.4 yards per carry against the Black Knights.
Moreover, quarterback Shea Patterson doesn’t look all that comfortable in the new offense. He had a decent day, but he was sacked four times and never seemed to get in a good rhythm. Patterson and the Michigan offense could have similar issues this week against a Wisconsin defense that has completely shut down the run game of its opponents early in the season.
For what it’s worth, even if Michigan had beaten Army soundly, I think I’d still favor Wisconsin in this game. They’ve been outstanding defensively, they can run the ball, and they’re at home. That’s a lot to like about the Badgers, especially against a Michigan team that has struggled in big games under Harbaugh. I think the Wolverines will struggle again, allowing Wisconsin to win and cover.