NCAAF Betting Odds & Free ATS Pick: Miami vs Virginia Tech

A pair of old rivals will both be desperate for their first ACC win of the season when the Miami Hurricanes host the Virginia Tech Hokies this weekend. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 EST on Saturday, October 5 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. The game can be seen on ESPN.

According to the Week 6 college football odds, the Hurricanes are 13.5-point favorites at home. The over/under for the game is set at 47.5 points.

Miami vs Virginia Tech Game Betting Preview & Vegas Odds

The Hurricanes are optimistic that they’ve steadied the ship after starting the season 0-2 with losses to Florida and North Carolina. However, first-year head coach Manny Diaz and company aren’t out of the woods just yet. Miami struggled with Central Michigan last week, only winning 17-12 at home. Obviously, the defense played well in that game, but it wasn’t so easy for the Miami offense. 

The Hurricanes are now lined up to play six ACC games in the next six weeks. Fortunately, the first three of those games are at home. However, with one conference loss on their record, Miami probably can’t afford to start the conference season 0-2 if they want to have a chance to win the ACC Coastal division.

As for the Hokies, they’ve already started the ACC schedule 0-2, losing their season opener to Boston College and getting clobbered by Duke last week in a 45-10 home loss. Even Virginia Tech’s two wins this season have been lackluster results against Old Dominion and Furman.

At this point, the Hokies are just hoping to keep their bowl streak alive. But even that won’t be a given with three of their last eight games coming against ranked teams. That doesn’t even include this week’s visit to Miami that has the Hokies as two-touchdown underdogs. Virginia Tech needs a win this week to give themselves a much-needed confidence boost and remain optimistic about their bowl chances.

Unfortunately, wins in this series are becoming few and far between for Virginia Tech. The Hurricanes have won four of the last five and five of the last seven meetings with the Hokies. All five of Miami’s wins during that span have come by double figures. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech’s last win in Miami came in 2013.

College Football Free Pick Against the Spread: Miami -13.5

It’s hard to trust Miami after barely beating a MAC team at home last week. But I think the Hurricanes are poised to improve as the season moves along. I can’t say the same for Virginia Tech. The Hokies were humiliated at home last week, and a trip to Miami probably isn’t what they need right now. I’ll take a chance on the Hurricanes kicking their rivals when they’re down and being able to cover.

The thing that pushed me toward Miami in this game is now dreadful Virginia Tech’s offense looked last week. In fact, the Hokies haven’t gotten it going on offense at all this season. Even when they put up 28 points and over 400 yards against Boston College in their opener, the Hokies spoiled the performance by turning it over five times. After managing just 259 total yards and home and turning it over two more times last week, I have zero faith in the Virginia Tech offense turning things around this week.

At the moment, the Hokies aren’t even sure who will be starting at quarterback. Ryan Willis connected on just seven of his 18 passes last week, so it’s not surprising that his job is in jeopardy. If not for a 72-yard touchdown pass late in the third quarter when VTU was already down by four touchdowns, he would have finished with just 40 passing yards. Of course, I’m not sure backup Hendon Hooker will fare much better. The Hokies are incredibly young along the offensive line and haven’t established a consistent running game this year, which is holding back the entire Virginia Tech offense.

Meanwhile, the Miami defense is still a tough unit to break. They have consistently stuffed the run all season, and if that trend continues this week, they’re going to put the Virginia Tech offense in a vulnerable position. The Hurricanes aren’t quite forcing turnovers the way they have the past couple of seasons. But they forced three against Central Michigan last week and could add a few more this week if they can force the Hokies into obvious passing situations.

The only real uncertainty I have in this game is if the Hurricanes can score enough points to cover two touchdowns. Freshman quarterback Jarren Williams has predictably had some ups and downs this season. His offensive line isn’t helping matters. But Williams has completed 73% of his passes and is yet to throw an interception, so he’s limiting his mistakes as much as possible. I also think Miami running back DeeJay Dallas has a chance to have a big game against a Virginia Tech defense that was ripped to shreds on the ground last week.

In the end, I have a little more faith in Miami than Virginia Tech. The Hurricanes will be tough at home, and as long as the Miami defense can take advantage of a dreadful Virginia Tech offense, it’s reasonable to think the Hurricanes can cover two touchdowns. I’ll eat the points and look for a comfortable Miami win.

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