Vikings Rams Odds
This Sunday the St Louis Rams will host the Minnesota Vikings in key NFC matchup between two teams fighting to make the playoffs. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 EST at the Edward Jones Dome and will be televised locally on FOX. Oddsmakers currently have St Louis listed as a 3-point home favorite with the total posted at 38.5 points.
Why Minnesota Will Cover:
The Vikings kept their playoff hopes alive with a very impressive 21-14 win over the Bears at home. Minnesota is now 7-6 and are just a game back of both Chicago and Seattle for the final wild card spot. However, it’s not just the Bears and Seahawks that the Vikings need to catch, as the Redskins and Cowboys are also 7-6 and each team currently holds the tie-breaker over Minnesota.
The chances of Minnesota sneaking in seem very unlikely when you factor in that they have to go the road to face Houston in week 16 and host the Packers in week 17, but that isn’t going to keep this team from doing whatever it takes to beat the Rams.
I don’t think it’s any secret to what gives the Vikings a shot at winning this game. Adrian Peterson has put this team on his back and was the difference in last week’s win over the Bears. Peterson rushed for 154 yards and two touchdowns and has now rushed for over 100 yards in seven straight games. What’s really been amazing is teams know he is getting the ball and can do nothing to stop him from racking up big gains.
The Rams aren’t exactly a great team to be laying points with, as they typically find themselves in low-scoring defensive battles. Only three times this season have they won by more than a field goal and two of those came against a bad Arizona squad. The value certainly appears to be on the Vikings at +3.
Why St Louis Will Cover:
The Rams enter this game with a 6-6-1 overall record. They too aren’t out of the playoff picture just yet, but much like Minnesota their chances of making it or very slim. St Louis was able to rally in the final minutes to beat the Bills 15-12 this past weekend, giving them three straight wins. This team is clearly playing its best stretch of football.
St Louis is just 4-3 at home this season, but two of those three losses came against two top level teams in Green Bay and New England. While the Rams appear to be just mediocre at home, the Vikings have really struggled to play well on the road. Minnesota is just 1-5 away from home this season and have lost four straight on the road. Over their 4-game road losing streak, all four losses have come by 9-points or more, which is where you start to see the value with St Louis laying just a field goal.
Adding even more value to the Rams being at home, is the fact that Minnesota is just 3-13 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog since 1992 and 0-6 in road games where the total is between 35.5-42 points over the last three seasons. The key here is that the Rams are an impressive 13-3 ATS in home games vs good rushing teams (averaging 4.5 or more yards/carry) in the second half of the season since 1992.