The Vikings and Panthers have profoundly different approaches to the game of football, and both are working out splendidly so far this season.
Minnesota is all about the passing game under Mike Zimmer, running up an active 8-game winning streak by out-racing, out-leaping and simply out-scoring teams when need be. Backup-turned-starting QB Case Keenum is playing about as well as Sam Bradford could have been asked to, and Adam Thielen is having a monster receiving year. But a fast, bruising defense has Zimmer playing for field position more often…with major benefits.
Carolina is all about Cam Newton as usual, with the squad sinking-or-swimming on his ability to pass, run and manage an NCAA-NFL hybrid offense. 8-4 isn’t Tarzan, but it sure as heck isn’t a shipwreck. Newton received little help from his supporting cast in a loss to New Orleans last week, but the Panthers reeled off 4 in a row before that.
The Panthers are getting a field goal from odds-makers and are a sexy upset pick among pundits, but bettors have other ideas.
Who: Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers
When: Sunday, December 10th, 1 PM EST
Where: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
Lines: Minn (-3) at Carolina (+3) / O/U Total: (41)
The line began at near-even odds and has been moving Minnesota’s way with the action. That despite ESPN giving the Panthers a 52% chance to win. What do bettors see that analysts don’t?
It can’t be the series trends. The teams have split their previous 10 games, and are even 5-5 ATS! And it’s not the weather, which will be cold but calm and without rainfall.
Maybe it’s Minnesota’s improved ground game. It might not be Zimmer’s preference but the Vikes are sticking with it, and starting RB Latavius Murray is warming to the challenge with more carries. He rushed for several crucial 1st downs in last week’s grudging 14-9 win at Atlanta. The improved TOP is helping a good defense play better.
A comparison of the offensive lines also finds Carolina wanting. Minnesota has only given up 14 sacks all season, an amazing number considering they’ve had a change in quarterbacks to adjust to. The Panther OL has given up close to 50 sacks, and has a slightly better ypc average…but mostly thanks to Cam.
These clubs have pretty good defenses. But we know that if Newton, Christian McCaffrey and company fall behind in the 3rd quarter, they’ll either succeed or fail spectacularly trying to come from behind. Fumbles and interceptions could lead to a 42-10 Minnesota win. A last-minute swing could lead to a 24-23 Carolina win.
Either way, the total of (41) is too low. Bet the over for a winning wager in Charlotte.