Both teams will be eager to get back to .500 as soon as possible when the Atlanta Falcons host the Tennessee Titans in Week 4. The game is set to kick off at 1:00 EST on Sunday, September 29 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Fans throughout large sections of the southeast will be able to watch the game on CBS.
According to our Week 4 NFL odds, the Falcons are 4-point favorites at home. The over/under for the game is 45 points.
The Falcons will be glad to be back at home this week. Atlanta edged out the Eagles in at home Week 2 for their only win of the season but stumbled on the road against the Vikings and Colts in their other games. The Falcons found themselves down 20-3 at halftime in Indianapolis last week, only for their comeback to fall short in a 27-24 loss.
The good news for Atlanta is that the rest of the NFC South has struggled to get going early in the season. Of course, that doesn’t mean the Falcons can afford to fall to 1-3. With back-to-back road games on tap after this week’s home date with the Titans, this figures to be a game the Falcons have to win.
Tennessee is in a similar position, sitting at 1-2 three weeks into the season. The Titans blowing out the Browns 43-13 in Week seems like a distant memory now. Tennessee has struggled to score points ever since, losing to the Colts 19-17 two weeks ago and falling to the Jaguars 20-7 last Thursday.
If the Titans can steal a win in Atlanta, they’ll have a chance to turn things around with three of their next four games at home. Of course, Titans fans could start to lose faith before the start of that homestand if the team comes home on the heels of a three-game losing streak, making Sunday’s game in Atlanta vital to Tennessee’s season.
Both teams are in dire need of a win, so the motivation factor in this game is a wash. I’m tempted to eat the points in favor of the Falcons, but Atlanta has shown far too many flaws this season. I think the Titans will do enough to keep them in the game, but I don’t think they have enough to win. My lean is toward Atlanta to win but the Titans to beat the spread.
Offensively, the Falcons have picked it up after a rough outing in Week 1. Matt Ryan is slinging it all over the field, and at times, he and Julio Jones look like an unstoppable tandem. However, at times, Ryan has been too reliant on Jones. Calvin Ridley’s involvement is hit and miss from one week to the next while Devonta Freeman has been stifled in two of Atlanta’s three games behind a suspect offensive line. The kicker is that Ryan has thrown six interceptions in three games. As well as he’s played at times, those turnovers are holding the Falcons back.
The flaws on the Atlanta offense are even more of a concern this week against Tennessee. Despite their 1-2 record, the Titans are one of the better defensive teams in the league. They’ve yet to allow more than 20 points in a game, which is impressive when you consider the lack of support they’ve received from the Tennessee offense the last two weeks. The Titans should have a plan in place to slow down Jones. They’ll also be able to seize on any mistakes Ryan makes and turn them into takeaways.
In fairness, the Tennessee offense is a mess right now. If the defense bends a little, especially early in the game, I’m not sure the Titans have a path back into the game. Not throwing an interception in three games is one of the few things Marcus Mariota has done right this season. He’s barely completing 60% of his passes and only has four touchdown passes. Also, the team’s leading receiver is tight end Delanie Walker, which also speaks to how limited the Titans are on offense.
Of course, the biggest problem Tennessee is facing right now is their pass protection. Mariota was sacked nine times against the Jaguars last week, giving the Titans a league-high 17 sacks allowed this year. The caveat is that I’m not sure the Falcons can take full advantage of that. The Atlanta defense has managed just five sacks in three games this season. On top of that, safety Keanu Neal suffered a season-ending injury last week and a few players in the Atlanta front-7 are banged up.
Despite Tennessee’s issues on offense, I think the Titans be able to establish a decent ground attack with Derrick Henry. The Titans also have a chance to slow down the Atlanta offense and keep the scoring in this game limited. The 1-2 Falcons have plenty of flaws, so I’m not sure they’ll be able to pull away and win comfortably. That makes me feel good about taking the Titans and the points.