Texas Tech Kansas State Odds
The Kansas State Wildcats will try to get above .500 for the year when they take on Texas Tech this weekend. The Wildcats will be on the road, but know that every game is a must-win if they want to make a respectable bowl game this season. The Wildcats have impressive wins over West Virginia and Iowa State the last two weeks, and dropped close games to Texas, Oklahoma State and Baylor for the remainder of their Big 12 schedule.
Texas Tech comes into this game as one of the biggest surprises of the season. They opened the season with seven consecutive wins, but have since lost back-t0-back games against ranked opponents. Both of those teams were from Oklahoma with the Red Raiders losing by eight points to the Sooners and 18 points to the Oklahoma State Cowboys. They will try to stop the bleeding in conference play this week when they play host to the Wildcats.
Kick-off takes place this Saturday at 12:00 PM ET with television coverage being provided by ABC and ESPN3. The oddsmakers have given a slight edge to the home team, listing the Red Raiders as three point favorites. The total has been set at 59.5-points, indicating we could have a potential shootout taking place.
Why Kansas State Covers
The Wildcats are averaging 32.1 points per game this season. Their ground attack has been impressive gaining 186 rushing yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry. They have also been very accurate when throwing the ball, completing 65.8% of their pass attempts. Overall the Wildcats offense has averaged 412 yards per game this season, which makes them more than capable of keeping pace with the Red Raiders assuming their defense does not let things get out of hand. Their numbers on the road are only mildly lower than their overall figures this season so I don’t think the fact that this game is on the road will have a big impact on the outcome.
The Kansas State Wildcats are 11-2 ATS against conference opponents over the last two seasons.
Kansas State’s defense has played exceptionally well this season. They held the nations top offense to just 35 points when they faced Baylor earlier this season. Overall they have held opponents to a mere 22 points per game this season. That is an impressive feat given the fact that their opponents offensive average has been over 32 points per game. The run defense has struggled at times, but that should be a non-issue this week against a Red Raiders team that has a very strong passing bias. The Wildcats secondary is allowing a 56.9% completion percentage for 218 passing yards per game, a number that is almost half of what the Red Raiders have averaged this season.
Why Texas Tech Covers
Few teams in the Big 12, with the exception of Baylor, have the quick scoring ability that Texas Tech does. The Red Raiders average 39.1 points per game this season, and they have done so with mediocre numbers on the ground. They gain 155 rushing yards at home, but it is their 400+ passing yards per game that makes this team hard to stop. Texas Tech has completed 63.2% of its pass attempts this season, and the offense as a whole is putting up an impressive 538 yards of offense per game. They may rely a little more on the run than they have in the past since the Kansas State defense has given up big yardage on the ground this season.
This matchup falls into a system to play against road underdogs like Kansas State when they are coming off a win over a conference rival, and facing a team that has lost two straight games to conference rivals when they allowed an average of 31 points or more in those games. This system is 27-6 against the spread.
You would expect a team scoring as many points as Texas Tech to have a very high scoring average against them. Typically teams putting up as many points as the Red Raiders have a very soft defense after they have quickly built up a large lead. That is not the case for Texas Tech as they have held opponents to just 23.4 points per game at home this season. The run defense gives up just 3.9 yards per carry, and that plays strongly in their favor against a Wildcats team that runs the ball an average of 41 times out of their 66 offensive plays.
It is hard to go against a Bill Snyder coached team, but that is the move I am making this week. The Red Raiders have played exceptionally well at home and I don’t think the Wildcats defense will slow them down enough for their offense to keep pace. Lay the points with the home team in what should be a shootout.