TCU Texas Odds

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This Saturday the TCU Horned Frogs (3-4) will host the Texas Longhorns (4-2) in a Big 12 in-state showdown at Armon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 EST and will be televised on Fox Sports 1. The Horned Frogs put an end to their four game skid against the Long Horns with a 20-13 road victory last year at Texas. Oddsmakers currently have TCU listed as a 2-point home favorite with the total set at 51.5 points.

Why Texas Will Cover:

The Longhorns will take the field for the first time since their shocking 36-20 upset win over Oklahoma as a 13.5-point underdog. The win improved Texas to 3-0 inside conference play, keeping their hopes of winning the Big 12 and playing in a BCS Bowl alive. The fact that the Longhorns come into this game with some momentum is a big reason to like them at +2. Texas is 43-25 ATS in their last 78 games when they come in having won three of their last 4.

Texas is 43-25 ATS in their last 78 games when they come in having won three of their last 4.

While the Longhorns lost at home to TCU last year, getting two weeks to prepare for the Horned Frogs is certainly an advantage. Most importantly it gives them time to regroup after that big win over the Sooners. Texas is a perfect 5-0 against TCU having lost the previous matchup, which definitely adds some value to the Longhorns as an underdog.

The Texas defense has certainly had their problems in 2013. But after holding Oklahoma to just 130 yards on the ground and just 266 yards overall, there’s reason to believe the Longhorns can slow down a TCU offense that has struggled to do much of anything this season. The Horned Frogs are ranked 110th in the country in total offense, averaging just 330.2 ypg. Something that has to give Texas fans hope is that TCU managed just 27 points on 380 yards of offense at home against Kansas.

Why TCU Will Cover:

The Horned Frogs suffered another loss where they were able to keep it close, but couldn’t make the plays needed to win the game. All four of TCU’s losses this season have come by 14-points or less and each has been against a quality opponent. They lost by 10-points to both LSU and Texas Tech, by just 3-points at Oklahoma and 14 this past week at Oklahoma State.

There’s no question the Horned Frogs would love nothing more than to hand the Longhorns another loss and possibly be the ones responsible for the firing of head coach Mack Brown. One thing to keep in mind is that TCU has not lost consecutive games all season and have been an excellent team to back of late coming off a loss. The Horned Frogs are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a SU loss.

The Horned Frogs are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a SU loss.

Maybe the biggest reason to back TCU in this game is the fact that oddsmakers listed them as the favorite. With Texas off a bye and that huge win against Oklahoma, this line is all but begging for action on the Longhorns. It’s similar to last week’s Utah/Arizona game, where the Utes were a 4-point dog just a week after upsetting Stanford.

There’s a solid system telling us to fade Texas. Teams off a win against a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points are just 30-60 (33.3%) ATS in the month of October over the last 5 seasons.

Early Lean – TCU -2

About the Author: Steve will be the first to tell you that College Football is his passion, but he enthusiastically follows the NFL, NBA, College Hoops, and Major League Baseball.
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