Winning Sports Picks
NCAA Basketball Archive | |||||||
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
03-28-24 | Alabama v. North Carolina -4 | Top | 89-87 | Loss | -110 | 83 h 2 m | Show |
25* Sweet 16 GAME OF THE YEAR on North Carolina -4 The North Carolina Tar Heels are the most disrespected No. 1 seed in the tournament. Hubert Davis is also one of the most disrespected head coaches in the country as he is now 8-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament at North Carolina. The Tar Heels are 10-1 SU & 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games overall with a pair of wins over Duke both home and away this season. They just crushed Michigan State 85-69 as 4-point favorites in the Round of 32. Now they are only 4-point favorites against Alabama in the Sweet 16. The Tar Heels have no weaknesses. They have two stud guards in RJ Davis (21.3 PPG, 41.1% 3-pointers) and Elliot Cadeau (7.3 PPG, 4.1 APG) who can both get to the rim whenever they want. They have two stud big men in Armando Bacot (14.4 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 1.5 BPG) and Harrison Ingram (12.2 PPG, 8.8 RPG) and a sharp shooter in Cormac Ryan (11.3 PPG). But as much as I love North Carolina, this is more of a fade of Alabama than anything. The Crimson Tide had an easy path to get to the Sweet 16 beating College of Charleston 109-96 and Grand Canyon 72-61. Both wins come with asterisks because both of those opponents shot very poorly, and Grand Canyon tried to beat them with 1-on-1 ball. Charleston started the game 1-of-17 from 3-point range, while Grand Canyon shot 2-of-20 from 3 for the game. The Antelopes also shot just 23-of-37 (62.2%) from the FT line. The Crimson Tide won't be able to benefit from those poor shooting numbers against a great shooting team in UNC. This is still the worst defensive team left in the tournament and UNC will expose those holes. Plus, Latrell Wrightsell Jr. (9.0 PPG, 44.3% 3-pointers) has been battling concussion issues all season and just suffered another one that forced him from the Grand Canyon game. He is a great shooter and their best perimeter defender. I have a hard time believing he will be anywhere near 100% for this one if he plays, and if he does there is a high likelihood he gets knocked out again. I like UNC to roll either way. Bet North Carolina Thursday. |
|||||||
03-28-24 | San Diego State v. Connecticut -11 | 52-82 | Win | 100 | 48 h 39 m | Show | |
15* SDSU/UConn Sweet 16 ANNIHILATOR on UConn -11 The UConn Huskies are 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS over the past two NCAA Tournament and covering by an average of 13 points per game. All eight wins have come by 13 points or more, so I'm not worried about laying this 11-point spread against the San Diego State Aztecs in the Sweet 16. This was a terrible matchup for SDSU in the Championship Game last year and that fact remains this year. UConn beat SDSU 76-59 to capture the title last year as 7-point favorites. No question the Aztecs want revenge, but they have a lot working against them heading into this one. For starters, this is a tough travel spot for the Aztecs, who have to travel clear across country to Boston to face what is going to be a home-heavy crowd for the Huskies. It's just a little over an hour from campus. This is one of the earliest games of the Sweet 16 with tip set for 7:40 EST Thursday night. The Aztecs didn't get home until early Monday morning after facing Yale in Spokane Sunday night. They will have hardly any time to prepare for UConn with all this travel. Teams that have had success against UConn this season have lit it up from 3 like Creighton did in Omaha. The Huskies have gone 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS since that humbling defeat, and Bobby Hurley is keeping that chip on their shoulder saying that the NCAA Tournament committee blatantly gave them they most difficult region, which is true. San Diego State runs its offense through Jaedon LeDee who is a monster inside. However, he lacks height and will struggle to score against UConn's bigs inside. The Huskies rank 3rd in effective FG percentage defense and 4th in 2-point percentage allowed. They just don't allow anything at the rim. San Diego State is going to have to try to win this game from the 3-point line, where they are terrible ranking 283rd in the country in 3-point percentage at 31.8% on the season. Terrible matchup for them and terrible travel spot. Bet UConn Thursday. |
|||||||
03-27-24 | UNLV v. Seton Hall UNDER 141 | 68-91 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 18 m | Show | |
15* UNLV/Seton Hall NIT ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 141 Two dead nuts UNDER teams square off tonight when the UNLV Rebels visit the Seton Hall Pirates in the NIT Quarterfinals. Defensive intensity will be high as the winner gets a trip to the NIT Final 4 in Indianapolis. UNLV ranks 305th in adjusted tempo and 86th in adjusted defense this season. I think the fact that UNLV went over the total in their first two NIT games has inflated this total. But they shot an unsustainable 60.8% against Princeton and 49.2% against Boston College. Their opponents were also fouling at the end in wins by 7 over Princeton and by 9 over BC. Seton Hall ranks 259th in adjusted tempo and 45th in adjusted defense. They combined for 136 points with St. Joe's at the end of regulation prior to going to OT in their NIT opener. Another low-scoring game occurred in a 72-58 win over North Texas for just 130 combined points last time out. Opponents are only shooting 39.9% against Seton Hall at home this season. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday. |
|||||||
03-26-24 | Cincinnati v. Indiana State -145 | Top | 81-85 | Win | 100 | 28 h 47 m | Show |
25* NIT GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana State ML -145 The Indiana State Sycamores are clearly out to prove a point that they belonged in the NCAA Tournament. They haven't hung their heads, and they have all hands on deck for the NIT. They have won and covered each of their first two games beating SMU 101-92 as 7.5-point favorites and Minnesota 76-64 as 7-point favorites. Now on the brink of getting to go to the NIT Final 4, the Sycamores will be 'all in' tonight to get this win. The NIT Final 4 is special to them because it will be played in Indianapolis in their home state of Indiana, so they will have a massive following if they get there. I think they get the job done here but I'm taking them on the Money Line instead of laying the -2.5 current spread. Cincinnati squeaked by San Francisco 73-72 in their NIT opener before blasting Bradley 74-57. I think that result over a fellow Missouri Valley team is giving the Bearcats more respect than they deserve. Indiana State also won both of its meeting with Bradley this season. Cincinnati also got to play at home but will now have to travel to face Indiana State. The Sycamores are 15-1 SU & 11-3-2 ATS at home this season. They have one of the best home-court advantages in the country. Cincinnati went just 4-7 SU in true road games this season. Indiana State is 9-1 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Bet Indiana State on the Money Line Tuesday. |
|||||||
03-24-24 | Texas A&M +10.5 v. Houston | Top | 95-100 | Win | 100 | 30 h 56 m | Show |
20* Texas A&M/Houston TNT No-Brainer on Texas A&M +10.5 Texas A&M is playing its best basketball of the season here down the stretch just to get into the NCAA Tournament. The Aggies are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with wins over fellow NCAA Tournament teams in Mississippi State, Kentucky and Nebraska. They ran out of gas in their 5-point loss to Florida in their 3rd game in 3 days in the SEC Tournament. No underdog in this NCAA Tournament has a higher ceiling than Texas A&M. The Aggies have wins over Iowa State, Florida, Tennessee and Kentucky this season. They even took Houston to the wire already once in non-conference play earlier this season, losing 70-66 as 7-point dogs on a neutral. Houston even shot 11-of-27 (40.7%) from 3 in that game while the Aggies only shot 38.2% as a team, yet it was only a 4-point margin. I think the Aggies can stay within 10.5-points in the rematch. Asking the Cougars to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much. They just faced one of the worst teams in the tournament in Longwood and won easily. They they lost by 28 to Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship Game, and injuries and lack of depth is a problem for them. Texas A&M is elite defensively and will force Houston into some scoring droughts that they are known for. The Aggies are the No. 1 offensive rebounding team in the country and can hang with the Cougars on the boards and in the physicality department. The Aggies also potentially have the best player on the court in Wade Taylor IV, who scored 25 points in the 98-83 win over Nebraska. But he isn't their only weapon as both Obaseki (22) and Radford (20) topped 20 as well. Buzz Williams is 21-7 ATS in March games as the coach of Texas A&M. Houston is 1-7 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season. Bet Texas A&M Sunday. |
|||||||
03-24-24 | Northwestern v. Connecticut UNDER 136 | 58-75 | Win | 100 | 29 h 34 m | Show | |
15* Northwestern/UConn TruTV ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 136 Games at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn have been very low-scoring in tournament season. That's where the Atlantic 10 Tournament was played and that was a very low-scoring tournament with 132 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in nine of 12 games. The UNDER is 4-0 in the four games thus far at the Barclays Center in the NCAA Tournament with 111, 116, 131, and 143 combined points at the end of regulation. Now we have a matchup of two dead nuts UNDER teams in UConn and Northwestern that both play at a snail's pace and are both elite defensively. UConn ranks 324th in adjusted tempo and 11th in adjusted defense, while Northwestern ranks 340th in adjusted tempo and 54th in adjusted defense. While UConn will get its points, I don't think the Huskies have faced many defenses as good as Northwestern. And I know the Huskies will shut down the Wildcats, who are missing two key players to injury. The Wildcats were tied 58-58 at the end of regulation with FAU last game for 116 combined points. That's a hell of a job holding that high-powered FAU offense to just 58 points in 40 minutes. And I don't think Northwestern gets to 60 in this one. UConn is 14-5 UNDER in its last 19 March games. The Huskies are 13-6 UNDER against a good team that wins 60-80% of their games this season. The UNDER is 7-3 in Northwestern's last 10 games overall with 131 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in six of those 10 games. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
|||||||
03-24-24 | Grand Canyon v. Alabama OVER 168.5 | Top | 61-72 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 55 m | Show |
20* Grand Canyon/Alabama TBS No-Brainer on OVER 168.5 Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team. The Crimson Tide rank 7th in adjusted tempo and 3rd in adjusted offense while having the worst defense of the Nate Oats era. Alabama is 25-8 OVER in all games this season including 13-3 OVER in road games. The OVER is 11-1 in Alabama's last 12 games overall with 175 or more combined points in 10 of their last 11 games overall. The Crimson Tide have scored at least 87 points in nine of their last 10 games overall while allowing 88 or more points in eight of their last 10 games. They are coming off a 109-96 win over Charleston to easily cash the OVER in a game that saw 205 combined points. I was impressed with how easily Grand Canyon scored on St. Mary's last round. The Gaels are one of the best defenses in the country. The Antelopes put up 75 points on them. They rank 56th in adjusted offense and also rank in the top third of the country in terms of tempo, ranking 116th. They won't mind getting up and down with Alabama in this one. Grand Canyon is 42-24 OVER in its last 66 games. Alabama is 9-1 OVER after allowing 90 points or more this season. The Antelopes are 27-12 OVER in their last 39 games against a team with a winning record. Grand Canyon is 15-3 OVER in its last 18 games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game. Alabama is 20-5 OVER against a team with a winning record this season. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
|||||||
03-24-24 | James Madison v. Duke UNDER 148.5 | 55-93 | Win | 100 | 27 h 32 m | Show | |
15* CBB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on James Madison/Duke UNDER 148.5 Games at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn have been very low-scoring in tournament season. That's where the Atlantic 10 Tournament was played and that was a very low-scoring tournament with 132 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in nine of 12 games. The UNDER is 4-0 in the four games thus far at the Barclays Center in the NCAA Tournament with 111, 116, 131, and 143 combined points at the end of regulation. Duke is a dead nuts UNDER team. The Blue Devils rank 236th in adjusted tempo and 22nd in adjusted defense. They have held nine of their last 12 opponents to below 70 points. They just beat Vermont 64-47 for 111 combined points. James Madison is also a better defensive team than they get credit for. The Dukes rank 55th in adjusted defense. They just held a very good Wisconsin offense to 61 points last game in their 72-61 win that saw just 133 combined points. Duke is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 non-conference road games. The Blue Devils are 12-2 UNDER in their last 14 neutral court games. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
|||||||
03-24-24 | James Madison +7.5 v. Duke | Top | 55-93 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 40 m | Show |
20* James Madison/Duke CBS No-Brainer on James Madison +7.5 James Madison is one of the best teams in the country that nobody knows about. The Dukes are 32-3 this season with their three losses coming to Appalachian State (twice) and Southern Miss. Keep in mind Appalachian State beat Auburn earlier this season. The upset Michigan State on the road in non-conference, and they just upset Wisconsin 72-61 as 5.5-point dogs last round to prove they belong. They dominated that game for all 40 minutes and were never in jeopardy of losing. Duke had a much easier opponent in the opener with a 64-47 win over a bad Vermont team as 12.5-point favorites. The Blue Devils lost to UNC twice this season, lost at Wake Forest and lost to NC State in the ACC Tournament. I think the ACC is just way down this season, so it's going to be hard to trust any ACC team outside North Carolina moving forward. The Blue Devils are on serious upset alert here. James Madison is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 non-conference games. The Dukes are 8-2 ATS against a team with a winning record this season. James Madison is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% or better. Bet James Madison Sunday. |
|||||||
03-23-24 | Oregon +5.5 v. Creighton | Top | 73-86 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 16 m | Show |
20* Oregon/Creighton TBS Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon +5.5 The Oregon Ducks are the one NCAA Tournament team that stole a bid by winning their conference tournament that I trust to make a deep run. The Ducks have won five consecutive games including wins over Arizona, Colorado and South Carolina in their last three. They have all the momentum right now and are playing their best basketball of the season. A big reason I trust the Ducks is head coach Dana Altman, who is a proven winner in the NCAA Tournament. Altman is 17-5 ATS in NCAA Tournament games as the coach of Oregon, including a perfect 7-0 ATS when listed as a 9 seed or higher. The Ducks may also have the two best players ont he floor in C N'Faly Dante (16.5 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 1.9 BPG) and G Jermaine Couisnard (16.1 PPG), who had 40 points against South Carolina last game. Both of these guys have taken their games to the next level down the stretch. Creighton was in a dog fight with lowly Akron until late in the 2H last game. They won 77-60 despite shooting 56.5% from the field and Akron only shooting 37.9%. The Zips shot 6-of-27 (22%) from 3 as well, which is uncharacteristic for them, while the Bluejays shot 10-of-17 (59%) from 3. They won't have those kinds of shooting numbers in their favor here when they take a big step up in class against surging Ducks. Bet Oregon Saturday. |
|||||||
03-23-24 | Oakland +6.5 v. NC State | Top | 73-76 | Win | 100 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
20* Oakland/NC State TBS No-Brainer on Oakland +6.5 NC State just won five games in five days to win the ACC Tournament. Four of the five games were decided by single-digits, so it took everything they had and then some. I question how much the Wolfpack have left in the tank for the NCAA Tournament. They got through Texas Tech on pure adrenaline, plus the fact that the Red Raiders play zero defense. This is the game I think all these games will take their toll as the Wolfpack will now be playing their 2nd game in 3 days. They are going to have to think because Oakland runs a great zone defense, and it's a very tough scheme to prepare for in one day. I don't think NC State will be ready for it. I like that the Golden Grizzlies acted like they expected to beat Kentucky after the game. They feel like they belong, and I expect them to pull the outright upset here Saturday over the Wolfpack to advance to the Sweet 16. They will have the best player on the floor in F Trey Townsend (16.9 PPG, 7.9 RPG), and he is surrounded by two great shooters in Blake Lampman (12.8 PPG, 36.5% 3-pointers) and Jack Gohike (12.8 PPG, 37.8% 3-pointers), who hit 10 3's himself to lead the upset of Kentucky. The win over Kentucky was no fluke as Oakland went 2-3 SU & 5-0 ATS against Ohio State, Illinois, Drake, Xavier and Kentucky this season taking all five of those teams to the wire despite playing all five on the road. The Golden Grizzlies are 6-0 ATS in their last six games off an upset win as a road underdog. Bet Oakland Saturday. |
|||||||
03-23-24 | Washington State v. Iowa State -6.5 | 56-67 | Win | 100 | 20 h 34 m | Show | |
15* Washington State/Iowa State TNT ANNIHILATOR on Iowa State -6.5 The Iowa State Cyclones have won the Big 12 Tournament in 5 of the last 11 years. A big reason they have so much success in the Big 12 Tournament is because it is known as 'Hilton South' with the huge following they get from fans with only a 3.5-hour drive to Kansas City. Well, now they are playing in Omaha, which is only a 2-hour drive from their campus. They have a massive home-court advantage once again for the first two rounds of this tournament. The Cyclones are playing their best basketball of the season in these tournaments. They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS since the start of the Big 12 Tournament, beating Kansas State by 19 as 8-point favorites, Baylor by 14 as 2-point favorites and Houston by 28 as 5-point dogs. They opened with a 17-point win over South Dakota State on Thursday as 15-point favorites. They were up 25 in the final four minutes before calling off the dogs, so that 17-point win wasn't as indicative of how dominant the win was. They won't be calling off the dogs against Washington State. Washington State thrives when they play a soft team like Drake and Arizona that aren't very physical. That's why they are able to upset Arizona twice and get by Drake last game with an 8-point comeback in the final seven minutes. They won't have that same luxury against Iowa State, which will match and exceed their physicality. The Cyclones rank 2nd in the entire country in adjusted defense, and they are a much better offensive team than the Cougars, who lack shooting. They won't be able to keep up offensively in this one. Iowa State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games against a good team that wins 60-80% of their games this season. The Cyclones are a combined 25-0 SU in home games, Big 12 Tournament games and NCAA Tournament games that have been played close to home this season. Bet Iowa State Saturday. |
|||||||
03-23-24 | Michigan State v. North Carolina -3.5 | Top | 69-85 | Win | 100 | 36 h 7 m | Show |
25* Round of 32 GAME OF THE YEAR on North Carolina -3.5 This will feel like a home game for the North Carolina Tar Heels being played in Charlotte. That's not being factored into this line enough. The Tar Heels are 9-1 SU & 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games overaall with a pair of wins over Duke both home and away this season. The Tar Heels have no weaknesses. They have two stud guards in RJ Davis (21.4 PPG) and Elliot Cadeau (7.3 PPG, 4.1 APG) who can both get to the rim whenever they want. They have two stud big men in Armando Bacot (14.3 PPG, 10.3 RPG, 1.5 BPG) and Harrison Ingram (12.1 PPG, 8.9 RPG) and a sharp shooter in Cormac Ryan (11.3 PPG). Michigan State was fortunate to get a bid into the NCAA Tournament. The Spartans went 3-5 SU in their final eight games this season including home losses to Iowa and Ohio State. They are prone to scoring droughts and are not the best shooting team. They only make 12 FT per game and struggle to get to the rim as well. Any droughts in this one and they are going to get run out of the building. North Carolina is 7-0 ATS in its last seven NCAA Tournament games. This line should at least be -6 in favor of the Tar Heels. Bet North Carolina Saturday. |
|||||||
03-23-24 | Gonzaga -3.5 v. Kansas | Top | 89-68 | Win | 100 | 34 h 52 m | Show |
20* Gonzaga/Kansas CBS No-Brainer on Gonzaga -3.5 Gonzaga made easy work of an upstart McNeese State team 86-65 and should still be fresh as a result. The Bulldogs improved to 10-1 SU & 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games overall playing their best basketball of the season here down the stretch. They upset both Kentucky and St. Mary's on the road during this stretch. Kansas shot 60.3% from the field and still needed a blown foul call from the refs to put away a bad Samford team 93-89 as 7.5-point favorites in the opener. It continued a trend of poor play to close the season as the Jayhawks are now 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. Head coach Bill Self announced that Kevin McCullar Jr. will be out for the NCAA Tournament prior to it. That leaves the Jayhawks very short-handed and this is a tough spot for them having to play their 2nd game in 3 days after needing to go to the wire to beat Samford on Thursday. They went with basically a 6-man rotation against Samford and had four starters play anywhere from 35 to 39 minutes apiece. They will wear down in the 2H as the Bulldogs pull away after intermission. This will feel like a home game for the Bulldogs with it being played out West in Salt Lake City. Kansas is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road/neutral games against good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game. The Jayhawks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after scoring 85 points or more. Bet Gonzaga Saturday. |
|||||||
03-22-24 | TCU -3 v. Utah State | 72-88 | Loss | -110 | 94 h 28 m | Show | |
15* CBB Friday BLOWOUT on TCU -3 Utah State is 1-19 SU in its last 20 NCAA Tournament Games. The Aggies had a successful regular season winning the MWC regular season title. But they are reeling coming into the Big Dance, going 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. They needed OT to beat Fresno State twice, only beat Air Force by 12 as 17.5-point home favorites, and lost by 16 to San Diego State in the MWC Tournament. TCU went 6-4 ATS down the stretch with narrow losses to Texas Tech by 1 and UCF by 2. They beat Oklahoma in the Big 12 Tournament opener and I just trust this team. The Big 12 was the toughest conference in the country, so I can see some of these middling Big 12 teams doing well in the NCAA Tournament because they are so battle-tested. Utah State suffered 5 of its 6 losses away from home this season including losses by 13 at New Mexico, by 14 at San Diego State and by 20 at Colorado State. They also lost by 16 to SDSU on a neutral and by 14 at home to Nevada. Utah State didn't face a single Power 5 team all season. Their non-conference schedule could not have been much easier, and they beat Santa Clara by 2 and San Francisco by 1 in their two toughest non-conference games. They also lost at Bradley. I'd argue TCU will be the best team they have faced all season. TCU has elite size on the interior that will help them match up well with Great Osobor, who is Utah State's best player. The Horned Frogs also have great length on the wing to make life difficult on Utah State's overmatched guards, who will be at an athletic disadvantage. The Horned Frogs are favored for good reason despite being the higher seed. Utah State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog. Bet TCU Friday. |
|||||||
03-22-24 | James Madison +4.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 72-61 | Win | 100 | 120 h 18 m | Show |
20* James Madison/Wisconsin CBS Late-Night BAILOUT on James Madison +4.5 James Madison is one of the best teams in the country that nobody knows about. The Dukes went 31-3 this season with their three losses coming to Appalachian State (twice) and Southern Miss. Keep in mind Appalachian State beat Auburn earlier this season. But what lets me know James Madison can play with Wisconsin is the fact that they went to Michigan State and upset the Spartans in East Lansing. They won't be scared at all to face a Big Ten opponent like Wisconsin, and I like the fact that this game is being played in Brooklyn, NY so the Badgers likely won't have many fans there. It's less than a 6 hour drive for James Madison fans and they will have the home-court advantage if anything. Wisconsin is a tired team after having to play 4 games in 4 days including an OT game against Purdue in the semifinals. They ran out of gas in the 2H against Illinois in the Championship Game and lost. I don't think they'll be fully recovered in time for the Round of 64. James Madison made easy work of its three opponents in the Sun Belt Tournament winning by a combined 42 points and has been off since March 11th. The Dukes will be the much fresher team for this matchup. James Madison is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 non-conference games. The Dukes are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games against a team with a winning record. I think the Dukes make the Sweet 16, and it starts with an upset win over Wisconsin Friday night. Bet James Madison Friday. |
|||||||
03-22-24 | College of Charleston v. Alabama -9.5 | 96-109 | Win | 100 | 32 h 56 m | Show | |
15* Charleston/Alabama TruTV ANNIHILATOR on Alabama -9.5 This is a great time to 'buy low' on Alabama. The Crimson Tide have gone 3-4 SU & 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall. But they faced an absolutely brutal schedule during this stretch with road losses to Kentucky and Florida (twice) as well as a home loss to Tennessee. They also beat Arkansas and Florida at home while winning by 14 at Ole Miss. When you consider that Alabama also face the likes of Ohio State, Clemson, Purdue, Creighton and Arizona in the non-conference, the Crimson Tide grade out as having faced the single-toughest schedule in the entire country. To say they are battle-tested would be an understatement. Now they have had a full week off since the loss to Florida in the SEC Tournament to rest. They will be rejuvenated, and they are a fully healthy right now and a dangerous No. 4 seed. The Crimson Tide get to take a big step down in class here against Charleston, which isn't as strong as it was a year ago. The Cougars showed very poorly in non-conference. They lost three consecutive games on a neutral to Duquesne by 18, Vermont by 9 and Wyoming by 7. They also lost by 16 at Florida Atlantic. It's also concerning Charleston needed OT to beat Stony Brook as a 10-point favorite in the CAA Championship Game. Alabama will be by far the best team they have faced this season. I love the matchup for the Crimson Tide because they attack the rim or shoot 3-pointers, and the Cougars were the 5th-worst team in the entire country in protecting the rim on close 2-pointers. Alabama is going to get what it wants inside for 40 minutes. Both teams love to run as Alabama ranks 11th in adjusted tempo and Charleston ranks 58th. More possessions favors the better team and the favorite. Charleston is actually much worse defensively than Alabama as the Cougars rank 175th in adjusted defense, largely because they cannot protect the rim. Alabama is 15-8 ATS as a favorite this season. The Crimson Tide are 25-11 ATS in their last 36 games after failing to cover the spread in four or more consecutive games. Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Charleston) - off four or more consecutive wins, when seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA Tournament are 70-32 (68.6%) ATS since 1997. This is a very low spread for a 4/13 matchup and it really shows that we are getting to 'buy low' on the Crimson Tide. Bet Alabama Friday. |
|||||||
03-22-24 | College of Charleston v. Alabama OVER 170.5 | Top | 96-109 | Win | 100 | 118 h 30 m | Show |
20* NCAA Tournament TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Charleston/Alabama OVER 170.5 Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team. The Crimson Tide rank 11th in adjusted tempo and 3rd in adjusted offense while having the worst defense of the Nate Oats era. Alabama is 24-8 OVER in all games this season including 12-3 OVER in road games. The OVER is 10-1 in Alabama's last 11 games overall with 175 or more combined points in nine of their last 10 games overall. The Crimson Tide have scored at least 87 points in eight of their last nine games overall while allowing 88 or more points in seven of their last nine games. Charleston also likes to run ranking 59th in adjusted tempo and 58th in adjusted offense while just 175th in adjusted defense. The Cougars have elite guards and can dice up this Alabama defense just like every other team with elite guards has this season. Alabama likes to get to the rim and will be up against a Charleston defense that is soft inside ranking 5th-to-last in the entire country in defending shots at the rim. Charleston is 11-1 OVER in its last 11 road games off a close win by 3 points or less against a conference opponent. This will likely be the highest scoring game of the entire opening round. Bet the OVER in this game Friday. |
|||||||
03-22-24 | Grambling State v. Purdue -26.5 | Top | 50-78 | Win | 100 | 31 h 25 m | Show |
20* NCAA Tournament BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Purdue -26.5 This is more of a fade of Grambling State than anything. The SWAC ranks 33rd of 33 conferences according to KenPom. One look at Grambling State's results in non-conference play and it's easy to see why. In their first 13 games this season, the Tigers went 3-10 SU with their three wins coming against UNT Dallas, Champion Christian and Biblical Studies, who aren't even ranked in KenPom. The 10 losses were absolutely laughable. They included blowout losses by 32 to Colorado, by 55 to Iowa State, by 30 to Dayton and by 39 to Florida. Now Grambling State has to face the best team they have faced yet in No. 1 seed Purdue. It's also a highly motivated Boilermakers team after losing to Fairleigh Dickinson last year. They won't take Grambling State lightly, and it's a very tough spot for the Tigers considering they had a 15-point 2H comeback against Montana State on Wednesday and had to go to OT in an 88-81 victory. Grambling State was able to get to the rim against Montana State and take advantage of the undersized Bobcats in the 2H. They won't be able to do that against Purdue, which ranks 45th in average height led by mountain Zach Edey inside. The Boilermakers will force the Tigers to try and shoot over the top of them from 3. Grambling State averages just five 3-point makes on 15 attempts per game. It's just not their game, and the matchup is a terrible one for them. Purdue is 8-2-1 ATS in non-conference games this season. That includes a 99-67 win over Texas Southern as 32-point favorites, which is a fellow SWAC team and ranked very similarly to Grambling State in KenPom. Grambling State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games vs. teams that average 40 or more rebounds per game. This line should be 30 or higher. Bet Purdue Friday. |
|||||||
03-22-24 | New Mexico v. Clemson OVER 151 | 56-77 | Loss | -110 | 87 h 9 m | Show | |
15* CBB Friday Total DOMINATOR on New Mexico/Clemson OVER 151 New Mexico is a dead nuts OVER team. The Lobos rank 8th in adjusted tempo and 42nd in adjusted offense. They have arguably the best trio of guards in the entire country in House, Mashburn and Dent and can get whatever they want to offensively. Clemson really struggles defending elite guards as Joseph Girard is a weakness defensively. But he and this Clemson offense can light it up. The Tigers rank 27th in adjusted offense, 37th in 2-point percentage and 8th in FT percentage. They have the bigs in PJ Hall and Ian Schieffelin that are matchup nightmares for New Mexico, which lacks defensive bigs. New Mexico is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 games off four straight games where they committed 11 or fewer turnovers. Clemson is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 games off two straight games with 12 or fewer assists. The Tigers are 10-1 OVER in their last 11 games off two consecutive ATS losses. Bet the OVER in this game Friday. |
|||||||
03-22-24 | UAB +7 v. San Diego State | Top | 65-69 | Win | 100 | 112 h 15 m | Show |
25* Round of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR on UAB +7 UAB can beat anyone when they are on their game. The Blazers went 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their final five games of the season beating Temple by 28 as 6.5-point road favorites, SMU by 4 as 1.5-point road favorites, and then made easy work of Wichita State by 12, USF by 10 and Temple by 16 en route to winning the AAC Tournament. I think the AAC as a whole is better than it gets credit for which is a big reason why Florida Atlantic didn't run through it like everyone expected. And UAB showed well in the non-conference, too. They lost by 2 to Bradley, by 1 to Clemson, upset Maryland and upset Drake. They can play with San Diego State. I think San Diego State gets too much respect for making the run to the championship game last year. They were in dog fights every game and were simply fortunate in close games. They are the most over-seeded team from the Mountain West getting a No. 5 seed. The rest of the Mountain West got the shaft, and we'll take advantage here and fade the over-seeded Aztecs. San Diego State is a tired team after making the MWC Championship Game only to lose to New Mexico. They needed OT to beat UNLV, and five of their last six games were decided by 8 points or fewer. I question how much gas they have left in the tank. I know it won't be enough to put away UAB by 7-plus points, especially since the Aztecs struggle to get easy buckets on offense and are a terrible 3-point shooting team, ranking 307th in 3-point percentage at 31.3%. UAB is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 road games following a win. The Blazers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 tournament games. The Aztecs are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games after playing two consecutive games as favorites. UAB is 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season. The Blazers are 15-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season. UAB is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game. SDSU is 0-7 ATS in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams that make 72% or better this season. The Aztecs haven't been nearly as good away from Viejas Arena going just 10-9 SU & 5-14 ATS in all games played away from home. This is also a sleepy start time for a West coast team with a 1:45 EST which will be like a 10:45 AM body clock game for the Aztecs. They aren't used to playing this early in the day. The Blazers are used to playing at this time being in the East. Bet UAB Friday. |
|||||||
03-21-24 | NC State v. Texas Tech -5 | 80-67 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 49 m | Show | |
15* NC State/Texas Tech CBS Late-Night BAILOUT on Texas Tech -5 NC State just won five games in five days to win the ACC Tournament. Four of the five games were decided by single-digits, so it took everything they had and then some. I question how much the Wolfpack have left in the tank for the NCAA Tournament, plus they get minimal rest having to play on Thursday instead of Friday. Texas Tech went 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its final five games this season including double-digit wins over Baylor by 10 at BYU by 14. The lone loss came to Houston, which is to be expected against the conference champs. I think Texas Tech is an absolute sleeper in the NCAA Tournament and could make a run. NC State takes a ton of bad shots from the mid range which is why they cannot be trusted. Texas Tech is a great shooting team ranking 37th in the country in 3-point percentage (36.5%). NC State ranks 246th defending the 3 allowing 34.8% from distance. That makes this a great matchup for the Red Raiders, who are a couple notches better than NC State on offense and defense. Texas Tech is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games against teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game in the 2nd half of the season. NC State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after a game with 5 or fewer offensive rebounds. The Wolfpack's run comes to an abrupt end with a blowout loss to the Red Raiders tonight. Bet Texas Tech Thursday. |
|||||||
03-21-24 | McNeese State +6 v. Gonzaga | Top | 65-86 | Loss | -105 | 94 h 53 m | Show |
20* NCAA Tournament DOG OF THE WEEK on McNeese State +6 McNeese State is one of the best teams in the country that nobody knows about. The Cowboys went 30-3 this season including a 76-65 road win at VCU, an 81-60 road win at UAB and a 87-76 road win at Michigan in the non-conference. VCU was one win from the Big Dance, UAB made the Big Dance, and Michigan was playing much better back when McNeese State beat them. Gonzaga has taken a big step back this season. The Bulldogs did not deserve a No. 5 seed. They were just a bubble team prior to beating St. Mary's in the regular season finale. They went on to lose to St. Mary's in the WCC Tournament. The Bulldogs have a lot of defensive holes and they aren't a great shooting team. One thing I love about McNeese State is they take care of the basketball and force turnovers. The Cowboys rank 25th in turnover percentage on offense and 6th in turnover percentage on defense. They also rank 7th in 3-point shooting, making 39.4% on the season as a team. They have a lot of big-time transfers for head coach Will Wade, including TCU transfer Shahada Wells (17.8 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 3.0 SPG), who will be the best player on the court. Bet McNeese State Thursday. |
|||||||
03-21-24 | Morehead State v. Illinois -11.5 | 69-85 | Win | 100 | 63 h 28 m | Show | |
15* CBB Thursday BLOWOUT on Illinois -11.5 Morehead State is a popular underdog pick in the opening round. That's why this line has been bet down from an opener of 13.5 to 11.5. But now I think is a great time to go contrarian and back Illinois as a much shorter favorite than they were at the open. A big reason for the move is because Big Ten teams that won their conference tournament have been upset in the first round the last three years. Illinois was one of those teams back in 2021. But they will be made aware of this, and I expect them to avoid the letdown. Illinois has gone 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS in its last eight games with its lone loss coming to Purdue. The Fighting Illini have done damage on the road during this stretch upsetting Wisconsin by 8 as 3-point road dogs and topping a desperate Iowa team by 12 as 2-point favorites. They won all three games in the Big Ten Tournament including covering the last two scoring 98 points on Nebraska and 93 more on Wisconsin. They rank 2nd in the entire country in adjusted offense and are a tough team to tame. One quick look at what Morehead State did in non-conference play and it's easy to see why I'm willing to lay the points with Illinois. The Eagles lost 105-73 at Alabama, 87-57 at Purdue and 74-51 at Penn State. So there's two Big Ten opponents to compare them to, and I expect another blowout in favor of the Big Ten here. Illinois is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game this season. The Fighting Illini are 11-3 ATS in road games vs. a team with a winning record this season. They have done their best work on the highway this season, and they will get plenty of fans traveling to Omaha to watch them crush Morehead State. Bet Illinois Thursday. |
|||||||
03-20-24 | Grambling State v. Montana State -3.5 | 88-81 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 33 m | Show | |
15* Grambling State/Montana State First 4 ANNIHILATOR on Montana State -3.5 This is more of a fade of Grambling State than anything. The SWAC ranks 33rd of 33 conferences according to KenPom. One look at Grambling State's results in non-conference play and it's easy to see why. In their first 13 games this season, the Tigers went 3-10 SU with their three wins coming against UNT Dallas, Champion Christian and Biblical Studies, who aren't even ranked in KenPom. The 10 losses were absolutely laughable. They included blowout losses by 32 to Colorado, by 55 to Iowa State, by 30 to Dayton and by 39 to Florida. Montana State beat California in the non-conference and had narrow losses to good Seattle (by 3), Green Bay (by 1) and Long Beach State (by 6) teams. The Bobcats were very impressive down the stretch going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their final six games. They upset Idaho by 14 as 1-point road dogs, lost in OT at Eastern Washington by 4 as 8.5-point dogs, upset Weber State by 12 as 5-point dogs, upset Weber State again by 9 as 8.5-point dogs, beat Sacramento State by 3 as 5-point favorites and crushed Montana by 15 as 6.5-point dogs. This team is clearly grossly overvalued here of late with four outright wins as underdogs among those six games. They make easy work of Grambling State tonight. Bet Montana State Wednesday. |
|||||||
03-19-24 | Colorado State v. Virginia UNDER 120.5 | 67-42 | Win | 100 | 21 h 7 m | Show | |
15* Colorado State/Virginia First 4 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 120.5 Virginia is a dead nuts UNDER team. The Cavaliers rank dead last in the country in adjusted tempo (362nd). They are also 7th in adjusted defense and a terrible offensive team, which is why nobody but Virginia fans want them in the tournament. While they're here we might as well take advantage and back a Virginia UNDER. Colorado State is also a dead nuts UNDER team. The Rams also prefer to play at a snail's pace ranking 270th in adjusted tempo. They are much better defensive team than they get credit for ranking 38th in adjusted defense. They rely heavily on PG Isaiah Stevens to score, and Virginia has the answer with two 1st-team All-ACC defenders in Reece Beekman and Ryan Dunn to slow him down. Virginia combined with Boston College for 114 points at the end of regulation and with NC State for 116 combined points at the end of regulation in a pair of OT games. But because those games went to OT I think we are getting a little extra value on the UNDER. Virginia and its opponents have combined for 121 or fewer points at the end of regulation in six of its last eight games, including 96 points with Wake Forest and 98 points with UNC. Virginia is 8-2 UNDER in non-conference games this season. Colorado State is 8-0 UNDER after winning four of its last five games this season. The Rams are 10-0 UNDER in their last 10 games vs. teams that shoot 15 or fewer free throws per game after 15-plus games. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday. |
|||||||
03-17-24 | Duquesne v. VCU UNDER 128 | 57-51 | Win | 100 | 2 h 27 m | Show | |
15* CBB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Duquesne/VCU UNDER 128 The Atlantic 10 Tournament has been very low scoring thus far. Ten of the 13 games have seen 132 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation. Teams haven't been able to figure out these rims, plus teams play great defense in this conference and slow down the tempo. It will be more of the same in the Atlantic 10 Championship Game. Duquesne is a dead nuts UNDER team ranking 248th in adjusted tempo, 34th in adjusted defense and 156th in adjusted offense. The Dukes have allowed 66 or fewer points in eight of their last 10 games overall. They held a very good Dayton team to just 57 points and St. Bonaventure to 60 points in their last two games. VCU is a dead nuts UNDER team. The Rams rank 302nd in adjusted tempo and 50th in adjusted defense. The Rams allowed just 62 points to Fordham, 59 to UMass and 60 points to St. Joseph's in their first three games in this tournament. Both teams will struggle to reach 60 points in this one. Duquesne is 23-9 UNDER in all games this season. Duquesne is 16-4 UNDER in conference games this season. The Dukes are 21-6 UNDER vs. teams that commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season. Duquesne is 11-1 UNDER in its last 12 games against teams that are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
|||||||
03-17-24 | Duquesne +2.5 v. VCU | Top | 57-51 | Win | 100 | 2 h 28 m | Show |
20* Duquesne/VCU Atlantic 10 No-Brainer on Duquesne +2.5 Duquesne has been grossly undervalued since late January. The Dukes won seven consecutive games and have gone 14-3 SU in their last 17 games overall. They beat Atlantic 10 favorite Dayton 65-57 and followed it up with a 70-60 win over St. Bonaventure yesterday to prove how good they are and that they belong. They'll remain playing with a chip on their shoulder today as underdogs to VCU. VCU has had an easier path to the Championship Game and their games have bene closer than Duquesne. Also, the Dukes won the lone regular season meeting 69-59 as 5-point road dogs at VCU on March 5th, which is a very tough place to win. It will be more of the same in the rematch today on a neutral. Duquesne is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games as a neutral court underdog or PK. The Dukes are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a good team that wins 60-80% of their games. Wrong team favored here. Bet Duquesne Sunday. |
|||||||
03-16-24 | Marquette v. Connecticut -8.5 | Top | 57-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
20* Marquette/UConn Big East No-Brainer on UConn -8.5 The UConn Huskies are a juggernaut and the best team in the country. They have gone 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall despite being a public team with everyone knowing how good they are. The books just haven't been able to set their spreads high enough. Marquette is without PG Tyler Kolek (15.0 PPG, 7.6 APG, 40% 3-pointers) and cannot compete with UConn without him. They lost 74-67 as 5-point home underdogs without him, and 81-53 as 7-point road dogs with him. This will essentially be a home game for the Huskies as their fans take over Madison Square Garden. Playing their 3rd game in 3 days including one in OT, the Golden Eagles' lack of depth will really get tested today. UConn is 15-2 ATS in its last 17 neutral court games. One of those losses came by 2 to Marquette in the Big East Tournament last year, and the Huskies have not forgotten. They will get their revenge in blowout fashion tonight. Bet UConn Saturday. |
|||||||
03-16-24 | Iowa State +5 v. Houston | Top | 69-41 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
25* CBB UPSET SHOCKER GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +5 The T-Mobile Center in Kansas City is known as Hilton South. The Iowa State Cyclones always get a great following for the Big 12 Tournament and it's like the same home-court advantage they have when playing in Hilton, and they didn't lose once at home this season. They made easy work of Kansas State 76-57 in the opener and easy work of Baylor 76-62 yesterday. Nobody has played Houston tougher than Iowa State. The Cyclones won 57-53 at home in their first meeting and lost 73-65 to the Cougars on the road in their 2nd meeting. Nobody else stayed within single-digits of Houston on the road. But now it will be the Cyclones with the home-court advantage with probably the best following from fans in the entire country for their conference tournament. Houston is short-handed right now and not a very deep team. That makes it tougher for them to play 3 games in 3 days. They are without Joseph Tugler and Ramon Walker, plus J'Wan Roberts is battling a knee injury and questionable for this championship game. He is quietly their most important player doing all the dirty work down low, and Tugler also provided some of it before he went out. TJ Otzelberger is 14-2 ATS vs. teams who average 9 or more steals per game as the coach of Iowa State. The Cyclones are 29-13 ATS in their last 42 conference tournament games. Bet Iowa State Saturday. |
|||||||
03-16-24 | Nebraska +4.5 v. Illinois | 87-98 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
15* Nebraska/Illinois Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Nebraska +4.5 The Nebraska Cornhuskers have been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season. They have gone 23-9 SU & 21-11 ATS, including 13-8 SU & 14-7 ATS in Big Ten play. They remain undervalued as 4.5-point dogs to Illinois today. Both Illinois and Nebraska got a bye into the quarterfinals. But Nebraska is going to be the fresher team because they crushed Indiana 93-66 yesterday, while Illinois needed a double-digit comeback to beat Ohio State 77-74. The Fighting Illini basically trailed the entire way despite Ohio State playing its 3rd game in 3 days and being a tired team. Now the Huskers have their sights set on revenge from an 87-84 (OT) road loss at Illinois. The Huskers already proved they could play with the Fighting Illini on the road, and now I love their chances of pulling off the upset on a neutral in the rematch. Nebraska is 9-1 ATS with a total of 150 to 159.5 this season. The Huskers are 10-1 ATS when revenging a loss this season, including 8-0 ATS when revenging a road loss. Illinois is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 tournament games. Bet Nebraska Saturday. |
|||||||
03-16-24 | Texas A&M v. Florida UNDER 152 | 90-95 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
15* Texas A&M/Florida SEC ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 152 One quick look at the head-to-head history between Texas A&M and Florida shows that this total has been set too high. They combined for 133 points in their lone meeting this season. They have combined for 140 or fewer points at the end of regulation in six consecutive meetings and an average of just 126.3 combined points at the end of regulation. We have 26 points to play with here with this total of 152. The Aggies and Gators have combined for 149 or fewer points at the end of regulation in 15 of their last 16 meetings, making for a 15-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 152-point total. Enough said. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday. |
|||||||
03-16-24 | St Bonaventure v. Duquesne UNDER 135 | 60-70 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on St. Bonaventure/Duquesne UNDER 135 The Atlantic 10 Tournament has been very low scoring thus far. Eight of the 11 games have seen 132 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation. Now these teams have had a day off to prepare for their opponents on Friday, which will benefit defense. Duquesne is a dead nuts UNDER team ranking 246th in adjusted tempo, 34th in adjusted defense and 162nd in adjusted offense. The Dukes have allowed 66 or fewer points in seven of their last nine games overall. They held a very good Dayton team to just 57 points last game. St. Bonaventure is also a dead nuts UNDER team. The Bonnies rank 288th in adjusted tempo this season, so this game will be played at a snail's pace. They held Loyola-Chicago to just 58 points at the end of regulation last game. Duquesne and St. Bonaventure have combined for 136 or fewer points in eight of their last nine meetings, including 126 or fewer in six of those nine. Duquesne is 22-9 UNDER in all games this season, including 15-4 UNDER in conference games. The Dukes are 10-1 UNDER in their last 11 games vs. teams that are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday. |
|||||||
03-16-24 | St Bonaventure v. Duquesne | 60-70 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
15* St. Bonaventure/Duquesne Atlantic 10 ANNIHILATOR on Duquesne PK Duquesne has been grossly undervalued since late January. The Dukes won six consecutive games and have gone 13-3 SU in their last 16 games overall. They beat Atlantic 10 favorite Dayton 65-57 last game to prove how good they are right now. They also swept St. Bonaventure in the regular season winning 54-50 at home and 75-69 on the road. St. Bonaventure is very fortunate to be in the semifinals. The Bonnies beat La Salle 75-73 as 8.5-point favorites in the opener and Loyola-Chicago 75-74 (2 OT) in the quarterfinals for two wins by a combined 3 points. Plus, Loyola-Chicago choked not scoring a single point in the final 6:02 of regulation after being in complete control, getting outscored 11-0 to close out the game to go to OT. Duquesne is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after a combined score of 125 points or less. The Dukes are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a good team that wins 60-80% of their games. Bet Duquesne Saturday. |
|||||||
03-16-24 | UAB v. South Florida -150 | Top | 93-83 | Loss | -150 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on South Florida ML -150 South Florida is 24-6 this season including 17-2 in AAC play and still lacking the respect they deserve in the AAC Tournament. Somehow this team is on the wrong side of the bubble, and the Bulls have been playing with a chip on their shoulder because of it. That chip will be bigger than ever in the AAC Tournament. South Florida is coming off an 81-59 win over ECU as 8-point favorites to improve to 22-2 SU in its last 24 games overall. One of those losses came 75-71 at UAB on January 7th in their lone meeting this season. The Bulls want revenge from that defeat now and are fresh after blowing out ECU yesterday. UAB beat Wichita State 72-60 yesterday. But Wichita State was playing its 3rd game in 3 days after two tough games that went down to the wire. The Blazers won't have that same luxury today against the fresh Bulls, who will get their revenge and win this game. USF is 8-0 ATS after winning six or seven of its last eight games this season. Bet South Florida on the Money Line Saturday. |
|||||||
03-16-24 | St. Joe's v. VCU UNDER 139.5 | 60-66 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
15* St. Joe's/VCU Atlantic 10 Early ANNIHILATOR on St. Joe's/VCU UNDER 139.5 The Atlantic 10 Tournament has been very low scoring thus far. Eight of the 11 games have seen 132 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation. Now these teams have had a day off to prepare for their opponents on Friday, which will benefit defense. VCU is a dead nuts UNDER team. The Rams rank 297th in adjusted tempo and 56th in adjusted defense. The Rams allowed just 62 points to Fordham and 59 to UMass in their first two games in this tournament. St. Joe's has upped its defense down the stretch, holding nine straight opponents to 75 points or fewer, including 57 to George Mason and 61 to Richmond in the first two games of this tournament. I don't expect either team to get to 70 today. St. Joe's is 10-2 UNDER in its last 12 games when revenging a same-season loss. VCU Is 11-2 UNDER in its last 13 games vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday. |
|||||||
03-16-24 | Wisconsin +6.5 v. Purdue | 76-75 | Win | 100 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
15* Wisconsin/Purdue Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin +6.5 The Wisconsin Badgers are playing with double-revenge today. They lost by 6 at home and by 8 on the road in their two meetings with Purdue this season. So they have shown they can play with the Boilermakers, and I think getting 6.5 points with them is a tremendous value today. The Badgers have saved their best basketball for last going 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. They crushed Maryland 87-56 in the Big Ten Tournament opener and were never really threatened late in their 70-61 win over Northwestern yesterday. Purdue was life and death with Michigan State in a 67-62 win yesterday. PG Braden Smith (13.0 PPG, 7.2 APG, 44.6% 3-pointers) suffered a bad knee injury in that win over the Spartans. He was hobbled pretty badly and I wouldn't be surprised if he sits today. Matt Painter would be wise to sit him, but if he does play he won't be anywhere near 100%. Greg Gard is 20-9 ATS when revenging a same-season loss as the coach of Wisconsin. The Badgers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 tournament games. Purdue is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 March games. Wisconsin is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games against a top-level team that wins more than 80% of their games. Bet Wisconsin Saturday. |
|||||||
03-15-24 | Colorado -2 v. Washington State | 58-52 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
15* CBB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Colorado -2 Colorado is a dangerous team when fully healthy and are proving it here down the stretch. The Buffaloes are 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with five wins by double-digits, plus road wins over both USC and Oregon. That includes their 72-58 win over Utah yesterday. Washington State had a much easier opponent in Stanford yesterday. The Cougars are already in the NCAA Tournament and won't be as motivated as Colorado, which is somehow still on the bubble despite winning seven consecutive games. The Buffaloes have been playing with a chip on their shoulder because of it, and that chip will remain tonight. Washington State is 0-7 ATS in road games off a win by 15 points or more over the last two seasons. Bet Colorado Friday. |
|||||||
03-15-24 | NC State +3 v. Virginia | 73-65 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
15* CBB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on NC State +3 Virginia is one of the most overrated teams in the country. The Cavaliers are going to make the NCAA Tournament but they shouldn't. They rank 9th in luck of 362 teams in the country, which is a stat that factors in wins in close games. They have a ton of them. The Cavaliers had another lucky win yesterday beating Boston College 66-60 (OT). They trailed basically the entire way and never led by more than 2 points in regulation. Their luck runs out today against a healthy, motivated NC State team that needs to win the ACC Tournament to make the NCAA Tournament. NC State has been impressive in this ACC Tournament. They upset Syracuse 83-65 in the opener and then upset Duke 74-69 as 11-point dogs yesterday. They carry that momentum into yet another upset win over Virginia even though I believe they are the better team and should be favored. Virginia is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games off a win by 6 points or less. NC State is 35-18 ATS in its last 53 conference tournament games. Bet NC State Friday. |
|||||||
03-15-24 | San Diego State v. Utah State UNDER 137 | 86-70 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
15* CBB Friday Total DOMINATOR on San Diego State/Utah State UNDER 137 Both San Diego State and Utah State are tired teams after both needed OT to beat UNLV and Fresno State, respectively, yesterday. I think those tired legs will make more of an impact on the offensive end than the defensive end. San Diego State is a dead nuts UNDER team. The Aztecs rank 252nd in adjusted tempo and 8th in adjusted defense. They struggle to get easy points on offense and aren't a very good shooting team ranking 299th in 3-point shooting. A big reason Utah State won the MWC regular season title is their improvement on defense this season. They rank 52nd in defensive rating. The UNDER is 6-2-1 in San Diego State's last nine games and would be 7-1-1 if not for going to OT yesterday. These teams combined for just 131 points in their most recent meeting on February 20th. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday. |
|||||||
03-15-24 | Baylor v. Iowa State -115 | Top | 62-76 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
25* Conference Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State ML -115 The T-Mobile Center in Kansas City is known as Hilton South. The Cyclones always get a great following for the Big 12 Tournament and it's like the same home-court advantage they have when playing in Hilton, and they didn't lose once at home this season. They made easy work of Kansas State 76-57 yesterday and will still be fresh today as a result. Now the Cyclones have their sights set on revenge from a 70-68 loss at Baylor in their lone meeting this season. They hit a 3-pointer just after that buzzer that counted originally but was waved off. They had a shot to win despite Baylor shooting 12-of-23 (52.2%) from 3-point range, and the Bears won't shoot that well again. Baylor needed a 2H comeback to beat Cincinnati 68-56 yesterday. That was a tired Cincinnati team playing their 3rd game in 3 days as well. I think the Bears are getting way too much respect here as essentially a PK against Iowa State in a game that will feel like a home game for the Cyclones as it always does in Hilton South. Iowa State is 28-13 ATS in its last 41 conference tournament games. Baylor is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games after covering four of its last five games. The Bears are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. top teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game after 15-plus games. The Cyclones are 8-1 ATS in their last eight games against a good team that wins 60-80% of their games this season. Bet Iowa State on the Money Line Friday. |
|||||||
03-15-24 | Indiana v. Nebraska -3.5 | 66-93 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
15* Indiana/Nebraska Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Nebraska -3.5 The Nebraska Cornhuskers have been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season. They have gone 22-9 SU & 20-11 ATS, including 12-8 SU & 13-7 ATS in Big Ten play. They remain undervalued as only 3.5-point favorites over Indiana today. Nebraska has the rest advantage after getting a bye into the quarterfinals. Meanwhile, Indiana was life and death yesterday in a 61-59 victory over Penn State, which had played the day prior and was at a rest disadvantage. Indiana has basically a 6-man rotation right now without Trey Galloway (10.6 PPG, 4.6 APG), which makes this back-to-back situation for them even worse than most teams. Indiana is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games when playing its 3rd game in a week. The Hoosiers are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 points or more. The Huskers beat the Hoosiers 86-70 at home and 85-70 on the road in their two meetings this season. Nebraska is 14-4 ATS as a favorite this season. Bet Nebraska Friday. |
|||||||
03-15-24 | Pittsburgh +7.5 v. North Carolina | 65-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
15* Pitt/UNC ACC ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +7.5 The Pittsburgh Panthers remain one of the most underrated teams in the country, going 10-2 SU & 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall, yet they are on the bubble. This team is playing with a chip on their shoulder as a result. They made easy work of Wake Forest yesterday, and now they have a great shot to pull the upset over North Carolina today. Pittsburgh is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when revenging a home loss. The Panthers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring 80 points or more in two consecutive games. The Panthers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven ACC Tournament semifinal games. Bet Pittsburgh Friday. |
|||||||
03-15-24 | St. John's +9.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 90-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
20* St. John's/UConn Big East No-Brainer on St. John's +9.5 St. John's has been on a tear since head coach Rick Pitino called out his team. They have gone 6-0 SU in their last six games overall including an 80-66 upset win over Creighton and blowout wins over Butler by 23 on the road and Seton Hall by 19 in the opener of the Big East Tournament yesterday. Now the Red Storm have their sights set on revenge on the UConn Huskies. They led UConn at halftime in each of their first two meetings this season before falling apart in the 2H. It has been a problem for the Red Storm all season until lately. They are closing these games out, and I think they will close this one out too with a great chance to pull off the outright upset. Asking UConn to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much. UConn was in more of a dog fight with Xavier yesterday than they should have been trailing 10-0 early. The Huskies thus had to play their starters in the 2H to put them away. They have benefited from a pretty easy schedule here down the stretch and will get more of a fight than they bargained for from the Red Storm here tonight. Bet St. John's Friday. |
|||||||
03-15-24 | Wisconsin -3.5 v. Northwestern | 70-61 | Win | 100 | 6 h 60 m | Show | |
15* Wisconsin/Northwestern Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin -3.5 The Wisconsin Badgers made easy work of Maryland 87-56 yesterday. They got to rest their starters in the 2H and will still be fresh for this game against Northwestern. That's why I'm willing to lay the points with the Badgers despite being at a rest disadvantage against the Wildcats, who got a bye into the quarterfinals. The Wildcats are vulnerable right now playing without two key players in G Ty Berry (11.6 PPG, 43.3% 3-pointers) and C Matthew Nicholson (5.3 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 1.4 BPG) to really hamper their depth. They lost two of their final three games to close out the regular season without these guys. Bet Wisconsin Friday. |
|||||||
03-15-24 | East Carolina v. South Florida -7 | 59-81 | Win | 100 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
15* CBB Friday Early ANNIHILATOR on South Florida -7 South Florida is 23-6 this season including 16-2 in AAC play and still lacking the respect they deserve in the AAC Tournament. Somehow this team is on the wrong side of the bubble, and the Bulls have been playing with a chip on their shoulder because of it. That chip will be bigger than ever in the AAC Tournament. The Bulls have the rest advantage over East Carolina in this one. They got a bye into the quarterfinals while East Carolina was life and death with Tulsa yesterday in an 84-79 victory. The Pirates won't have much left in the tank for the Bulls, who won their lone meeting on the road 71-60 earlier this season. South Florida is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. teams that are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game. The Bulls are 7-0 ATS after winning six or seven of their last eight games this season. Bet South Florida Friday. |
|||||||
03-14-24 | Utah v. Colorado -3.5 | Top | 58-72 | Win | 100 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Colorado -3.5 Colorado is a dangerous team when fully healthy and are proving it here down the stretch. The Buffaloes are 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall with four wins by double-digits, plus road wins over both USC and Oregon. That includes their 89-65 home win over Utah on February 24th. It should be another blowout in the Buffaloes' favor in the rematch due to their rest advantage after getting a bye into the quarterfinals, while Utah had to play Arizona State yesterday. While the Utes made easy work of the Sun Devils, things will come much tougher for them today against a Colorado team that has a legit shot to run the table and win the Pac-12 Tournament. Utah is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 10 points or more, and 0-6 ATS when revenging a double-digit loss this season. Bet Colorado Thursday. |
|||||||
03-14-24 | Villanova +4.5 v. Marquette | 65-71 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 30 m | Show | |
15* Villanova/Marquette Big East ANNIHILATOR on Villanova +4.5 This is a great spot to 'buy low' on Villanova. They needed a 3-pointer in the final seconds to beat DePaul as a 24.5-point favorite yesterday. Nobody wants to back this team now. The Wildcats are playing with a chip on their shoulder because of all the hate they have been receiving. They are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament and a win over Marquette today may very well get them in. The Golden Eagles are without G Tyler Kolek (15.0 PPG, 40% 3-pointers) right now. Kolek scored 53 points combined in his two meetings with Villanova earlier this season, so not having him on the court in the 3rd meeting here will make all the difference and gives the Wildcats a legit shot to pull off the upset. Bet Villanova Thursday. |
|||||||
03-14-24 | Villanova v. Marquette UNDER 143.5 | Top | 65-71 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
20* Big East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Villanova/Marquette UNDER 143.5 Villanova is a dead nuts UNDER team. The Wildcats rank 348th in adjusted tempo and 14th in adjusted defense and struggle to get easy buckets on offense. The UNDER is 8-0 in Villanova's last eight games overall with 134 or fewer combined points in 11 consecutive games, which makes for an 11-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 143.5-point total. Marquette is an UNDER team in its current state. The Golden Eagles are without G Tyler Kolek (15.0 PPG, 40% 3-pointers) right now. Kolek scored 53 points combined in his two meetings with Villanova earlier this season, so not having him on the court in the 3rd meeting here will benefit the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday. |
|||||||
03-14-24 | Cincinnati v. Baylor -4.5 | Top | 56-68 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Baylor -4.5 Baylor got a bye into the quarterfinals and has a massive rest advantage over Cincinnati. The Bearcats will be playing their 3rd game in 3 days after a hard-fought 90-85 win over West Virginia in the opener, and then beating a dead Kansas team yesterday that was without its two best players in Kevin McCullar Jr. and Hunter Dickinson. Now the Bearcats take a big step up in class here against a Baylor team that is fully healthy and hitting on all cylinders right now. The Bears just got Langston Love back from injury for their run through these conference and NCAA Tournaments. Cincinnati is not a deep team and playing their 3rd game in 3 days will really test that depth. Baylor is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games after allowing 40 points or more in the first half of two consecutive games, including a perfect 9-0 ATS since Scott Drew took over in Waco. Cincinnati is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference opponent. Bet Baylor Thursday. |
|||||||
03-14-24 | Boston College +5 v. Virginia | 60-66 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 33 m | Show | |
15* Boston College/Virginia ACC ANNIHILATOR on Boston College +5 Rarely will I back a team playing their 3rd game in 3 days against a team that hasn't played yet in these conference tournaments. Usually the team playing their 3rd game in 3 days runs out of gas, but that shouldn't be the case for Boston College. The Eagles made easy work of Miami 81-65 two days ago and then easy work of Clemson 76-55 yesterday. They are a pretty deep team with a 9-man rotation, and four of their five starters played 31 or fewer minutes yesterday. They should still be plenty fresh for Virginia tonight. Virginia is one of the most overrated teams in the country and doesn't belong in the Big Dance. The Cavaliers are 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall. Two of the three wins came by 4 points or less, including a 4-point win over Boston College on February 28th, which places the Eagles in revenge mode as well. Virginia is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games away from home after winning two of its last three games. The Eagles are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall and I'll ride that momentum today in a game they are more than capable of pulling off the outright upset for a 3rd consecutive day. Bet Boston College Thursday. |
|||||||
03-14-24 | Stanford v. Washington State -8.5 | 62-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
15* CBB Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Washington State -8.5 Washington State has the rest advantage over Stanford today. The Cougars got a bye into the Pac-12 quarterfinals, while the Cardinal needed an 18-point 2H comeback to beat rival California yesterday. Not only that, but the Cardinal needed OT to get the job done, so they are extra tired. The only team Stanford has been able to beat here of late is lowly California, who they get up for because they are rivals. The Cardinal are 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS in their last eight games overall with both wins coming of Cal, and all six losses coming by 10 points or more. Four starters played at least 36 minutes for Stanford yesterday, and they won't have much left in the tank for Washington State tonight. Washington State beat Stanford 89-75 on the road and 72-59 at home in their two meetings earlier this season. Another double-digit victory in their favor will be the result with their rest advantage tonight. The Cougars are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. good shooting teams that make 45% or better. Bet Washington State Thursday. |
|||||||
03-14-24 | Kansas State v. Iowa State -5.5 | 57-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
15* K-State/Iowa State Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on Iowa State -5.5 The T-Mobile Center in Kansas City is known as Hilton South. The Cyclones always get a great following for the Big 12 Tournament and it's like the same home-court advantage they have when playing in Hilton, and they didn't lose once at home this season. The Cyclones have the rest advantage today after getting a bye into the quarterfinals, while the Wildcats needed a big comeback to beat Texas 78-74 yesterday. The Wildcats are not a deep team and had five players play at least 29 minutes yesterday. They won't have much left in the tank for the Cyclones today. Iowa State also wants revenge from a 65-58 loss at Kansas State in the regular season finale. They had just accomplished a perfect home record with a 68-63 home win over BYU three days prior and were in a clear letdown spot. Now the Wildcats will have their full attention in the rematch here tonight. Iowa State is 10-2 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in 8 days this season. The Cyclones are 27-13 ATS in their last 40 conference tournament games. Iowa State is 60-38 ATS in its last 98 games when revenging a loss where they scored 60 points or less. Bet Iowa State Thursday. |
|||||||
03-14-24 | Kansas State v. Iowa State UNDER 132.5 | 57-76 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
15* Big 12 Total DOMINATOR on Kansas State/Iowa State UNDER 132.5 Iowa State is a dead nuts UNDER team. The Cyclones rank 174th in adjusted tempo, 2nd in adjusted defense and just 75th in adjusted offense. They face another dead nuts UNDER team in Kansas State, which ranks 183rd in adjusted tempo, 19th in adjusted defense and 138th in adjusted offense. Both teams hang their hats on defense. That's why it should come as no surprise that the Cyclones and Wildcats just combined for 123 points in their final meeting of the season on March 9th. Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and this will be their 2nd meeting in less than a week. Points will be very hard to come by for both teams once again. TJ Otzelberger is 11-2 UNDER In March games as the coach of Iowa State. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday. |
|||||||
03-14-24 | Ohio State -1.5 v. Iowa | Top | 90-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Ohio State -1.5 Firing head coach Chris Holtmann was the best thing that could have happened to Ohio State. The Buckeyes have gone 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with their two losses both coming on the road to Wisconsin and Minnesota. They upset Purdue at home and Michigan State on the road during this stretch. The Buckeyes have all of the momentum heading into the Big Ten Tournament and I trust them to get revenge on Iowa after falling 79-77 to the Hawkeyes in Iowa City on February 2nd. The Hawkeyes don't play defense and they lack good big men inside. They are just a very hard team to trust. Ohio State is 8-1 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 45% shooting or higher over the last two seasons. The Buckeyes are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games when revenging a same-season loss. Bet Ohio State Thursday. |
|||||||
03-14-24 | St Bonaventure v. Loyola-Chicago -2 | Top | 75-74 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on Loyola-Chicago -2 Loyola-Chicago got a bye into the quarterfinals and has the rest advantage over St. Bonaventure today. The Bonnies were life and dead with La Salle in a 75-73 win yesterday. They only have a 7-man rotation and their starters played 40, 40, 39, 34 and 22 minutes yesterday. They won't have much left in the tank for the Ramblers today. Bet Loyola-Chicago Thursday. |
|||||||
03-14-24 | TCU +10.5 v. Houston | 45-60 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
15* TCU/Houston Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on TCU +10.5 TCU is squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament. But the Horned Frogs can make their case with an upset win over Houston today. They will be 'all in' to get this win, and catching 10.5 points is a nice value on a desperate Horned Frogs team today. Houston was dominant at home this season, but they were vulnerable on the highway. In fact, each of their last 11 road games were either losses or wins by 8 points or less. That makes for an 11-0 system backing TCU pertaining to this 10.5-point spread. Houston doesn't need this win as they are locked into a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Bet TCU Thursday. |
|||||||
03-14-24 | Wake Forest v. Pittsburgh +2 | 69-81 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
15* Wake Forest/Pittsburgh ACC ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +2 Pitt has a bye into the quarterfinals and has the rest advantage today over Wake Forest, which is a big reason why I'm on the Panthers. Plus, this is one of the most underrated teams in the country, going 9-2 SU & 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall, yet they are on the bubble. This team is playing with a chip on their shoulder as a result. Wake Forest is not a deep team and will not handle this back-to-back situation very well as a result. The Demon Deacons had to play their starters big minutes yesterday in a 72-59 win over Notre Dame. All five starters played at least 26 minutes, including 36 from Sallis and 35 from Miller. Their bench provided a total of 11 points in the win as this is one of the worst benches in the country. Pittsburgh is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring 80 points or more in two consecutive games. Bet Pittsburgh Thursday. |
|||||||
03-14-24 | Maryland v. Wisconsin -3 | 56-87 | Win | 100 | 6 h 21 m | Show | |
15* Maryland/Wisconsin Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin -3 Wisconsin has the rest advantage over Maryland today. The Badgers got a bye into the quarterfinals while the Terrapins beat Rutgers 65-51 yesterday. Seven players played at least 21 minutes for the Terrapins yesterday, and I question how much they have left in the tank for the Badgers. Rutgers pretty much quit late in the season, so the Terrapins are getting too much respect from that win. Maryland is 1-8 ATS off a win by 10 points or more this season. It's a great 'buy low' spot on the Badgers, who went 3-8 SU & 2-9 ATS in their final 11 games to close out the regular season. Bet Wisconsin Thursday. |
|||||||
03-14-24 | VCU v. Massachusetts +2.5 | 73-59 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 59 m | Show | |
15* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on UMass +2.5 UMass has the rest advantage today getting a bye into the quarterfinals while VCU was in a dog fight with Fordham yesterday in a 69-62 win. That's a big factor as to why I'm backing UMass. Plus, the minutemen beat the Rams 74-52 in their lone meeting this season, and I trust head coach Frank Martin to have his team ready. UMass is 9-2 ATS off an ATS loss this season. Wrong team favored here. Bet UMass Thursday. |
|||||||
03-14-24 | St. Joe's v. Richmond UNDER 142 | 66-61 | Win | 100 | 4 h 43 m | Show | |
15* CBB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on St. Joe's/Richmond UNDER 142 This will be a sleepy 11:30 AM EST start time for this Atlantic 10 Tournament opener between St. Joe's and Richmond. These early games always tend to be lower scoring because it takes both teams some time to wake up. Richmond ranks 213th in adjusted tempo and 28th in adjusted defense while just 147th in adjusted offense, so the Spiders are a dead nuts UNDER team. St. Joe's played the early game yesterday which proved to be a defensive battle in a 64-57 win over George Mason that saw just 121 combined points. Richmond beat St. Joe's 73-66 on March 6th in their lone meeting this season for 139 combined points. Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and this will be their 2nd meeting in just over a week, so they'll know how to stop one another. St. Joe's is 6-0 UNDER in its last six road games when revenging a same-season loss. Richmond is 7-0 UNDER in its last seven road games vs. teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday. |
|||||||
03-14-24 | St. Joe's v. Richmond -2.5 | 66-61 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
15* St. Joe's/Richmond Atlantic 10 Early ANNIHILATOR on Richmond -2.5 Richmond has the rest advantage today getting a bye into the quarterfinals while St. Joe's was in a dog fight with George Mason yesterday. St. Joe's saw all 5 starters play at least 34 minutes and they are lacking depth with only a 7-man rotation. That's a big factor as to why I'm backing Richmond. The Spiders beat the Hawks 73-66 in their lone meeting this season. Richmond has been undervalued all year going 21-9 ATS in all game, including 14-4 ATS as a favorite. The Spiders are also a perfect 11-0 ATS after playing a game as an underdog this season, and 8-0 ATS off an ATS loss this season. Bet Richmond Thursday. |
|||||||
03-13-24 | DePaul v. Villanova -22.5 | 57-58 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 42 m | Show | |
15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Villanova -22.5 Fading DePaul has been a great move here of late. The Blue Demons are a mess after firing head coach Tony Stubblefield and just ready for this season to be over. They are 0-20 SU & 7-13 ATS in Big East play this season while getting outscored by 23.9 points per game. They are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall 10 of those losses by double-digits and eight by 19 points or more. Villanova is squarely on the bubble and cannot afford to take DePaul lightly. They haven't take the Blue Demons lightly in their two meetings already this season to say the least. Villanova beat DePaul 84-48 on the road on December 23rd and 94-69 at home on January 12th. Another 23-plus point victory in their favor is in store today to cover this number. This will be our last opportunity to fade DePaul this season, and we'll take full advantage. DePaul is 0-6 ATS when revenging a road loss by 10 points or more this season. The Blue Demons are 6-15 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season. Bet Villanova Wednesday. |
|||||||
03-13-24 | Stanford v. California UNDER 150.5 | 87-76 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 38 m | Show | |
15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Stanford/California UNDER 150.5 Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. Stanford and California just met in the regular season finale with an 80-58 win by the Cardinal and just 138 combined points. They also combined for 144 points in their previous meeting at California. But the UNDER run between these hated rivals extends back much further. The UNDER is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings. The Cardinal and Bears have combined for 146 or fewer points in 12 of those 13 meetings, making for a 12-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 150.5-point total. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday. |
|||||||
03-13-24 | Michigan v. Penn State -6.5 | 57-66 | Win | 100 | 21 h 37 m | Show | |
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State -6.5 Michigan is just ready for this season to be over. The Wolverines have gone 0-8 SU & 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall with all eight losses by 8 points or more and seven losses by double-digits. They should be catching more than 6.5 points to Penn State today. Penn State has improved as the season has gone on under first-year head coach Mike Rhoades. The Nittany Lions are 6-5 SU & 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. They are coming off an 85-69 win over Maryland and will make easy work of this lifeless Michigan team tonight. Penn State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven conference tournament games. Michigan is 0-13 ATS after allowing 80 points or more this season. This will be our last chance to fade the Wolverines this season and we'll take advantage. Bet Penn State Wednesday. |
|||||||
03-13-24 | St. Louis v. Duquesne -6.5 | 73-83 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show | |
15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Duquesne -6.5 Saint Louis was life and dead yesterday with Rhode Island in a 74-71 win. The Billikens only have a 7-man rotation and Jimerson played 39 minutes, Hargrove Jr. 36 and Medley 34 yesterday. They won't have much left in the tank for the Duquesne Dukes today. I'll gladly back Duquesne with the rest advantage today. The Dukes have been playing their best basketball of the season here down the stretch. They have gone 11-3 SU in their last 14 games overall including an 81-66 win as 9.5-point home favorites over St. Louis. This is a short number for them to be laying in the rematch, especially with the rest advantage. St. Louis is 0-7 ATS when revenging a loss this season. Bet Duquesne Wednesday. |
|||||||
03-13-24 | NC State v. Syracuse -125 | Top | 83-65 | Loss | -125 | 19 h 35 m | Show |
20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Syracuse ML -125 The Syracuse Orange are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch. They have gone 4-1 SU in their last five games overall with their lone loss coming on the road to Clemson on Senior Day. They are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against NC State this season beating the Wolfpack by 12 at home and by 4 on the road. The Orange have the rest advantage over the Wolfpack today. They got a bye into this round, while NC State was life and dead with a very bad Louisville team yesterday, winning 94-85. Not to mention, they are without G DJ Horne (16.8 PPG, 42.9% 3-pointers), who is their best player. They only have an 8-man rotation and Taylor and Morsell both played 39 minutes yesterday. NC State is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games after grabbing 5 or fewer offensive rebounds last game. Bet Syracuse on the Money Line Wednesday. |
|||||||
03-13-24 | Georgetown +10.5 v. Providence | 56-74 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 60 m | Show | |
15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Georgetown +10.5 The Georgetown Hoyas have been known for making runs in the Big East Tournament even when they had poor regular seasons. I think they have what it takes to give Providence a run for its money in the opener today. They only lost by 5 to Xavier and by 8 at St. John's in two of their last three games. The other game resulted in a 71-58 home loss to Providence. But Georgetown was coming off that deflating loss to Xavier and didn't show up. Head coach Ed Cooley called his team out, and they responded by giving St. John's a scare on the road in the finale. That was a desperate St. John's team trying to make the tournament and playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch. Providence is not playing well at all. The Friars are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall losing by 22 at Marquette, by 11 at home to Villanova and by 14 at home to UConn. Providence shot 49.1% in that last meeting with Georgetown while the Hoyas shot 35.1%. Some positive shooting regression is coming Georgetown's way in this one. Providence is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games as a neutral court favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. Georgetown is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games when revenging a home loss. Bet Georgetown Wednesday. |
|||||||
03-13-24 | Xavier v. Butler UNDER 150.5 | 76-72 | Win | 100 | 16 h 32 m | Show | |
15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Xavier/Butler UNDER 150.5 Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. Butler played Xavier in the regular season finale in a game that finished 72-66 for just 138 combined points. This total of 150.5 has been set way too high for the rematch today in this win-or-go-home situation. Butler has been a dead nuts UNDER team for weeks. The UNDER is 8-0-1 in Butler's last nine games overall with 150 or fewer combined points in all nine games. That makes for a 9-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 150.5-point total. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday. |
|||||||
03-13-24 | Fordham v. VCU -8.5 | 62-69 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 36 m | Show | |
15* Fordham/VCU Atlantic 10 Early ANNIHILATOR on VCU -8.5 Fordham needed OT yesterday to put away Davidson 71-63. The Rams aren't a deep team going with a 7-man rotation and all seven played at least 21 minutes yesterday, including 45 from Kochera, 41 from Huffman, 34 from Logan and 34 from Durkin. They won't have much left in the tank today against VCU, which will ramp up the defensive pressure and make life difficult on the Rams. It's a great 'buy low' spot on VCU after closing out the regular season with three consecutive losses. But they arguably came to the three best teams in the Atlantic 10 in Richmond (by 3) and Dayton (by 5) on the road, as well as Duquesne at home, which was a sandwich spot. Now they take a big step down in class here and will be highly motivated to get back on track. VCU is 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in its last seven meetings with Fordham. Six of the seven wins have come by 15 points or more, including their 75-60 win at Fordham on February 6th in their lone meeting this season. Fordham is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games when playing its 2nd game in 3 days. Fordham is 3-10 ATS off an ATS win this season. VCU is 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record this season. Bet VCU Wednesday. |
|||||||
03-12-24 | West Virginia v. Cincinnati UNDER 144.5 | 85-90 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 36 m | Show | |
15* WVU/Cincinnati Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 144.5 Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. This will be the 3rd meeting between WVU and Cincinnati this season, including the 2nd meeting in 4 days. They combined for 134 points in their first meeting and 148 in their 2nd, but Cincinnati shot an unsustainable 59% in that game and WVU shot 42.1% from 3. Now in a win-or-go-home situation here in the 3rd meeting Tuesday, I think the defensive intensity will be very high. The Bearcats rank 197th in adjusted tempo and 19th in adjusted defense, profiling as an UNDER team. I think we're getting some value on the under after both of these teams trended over late in the season. Plays on the UNDER on neutral court teams with a total of 140 to 149.5 (Cincinnati) - off a home win where they scored 85 points or more are 106-61 (63.5%) over the last five seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday. |
|||||||
03-12-24 | George Washington v. La Salle UNDER 146.5 | 60-61 | Win | 100 | 5 h 0 m | Show | |
15* CBB Tuesday Early ANNIHILATOR on George Washington/La Salle UNDER 146.5 Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games. La Salle just beat George Washington 72-66 for 138 combined points in their second-to-last game of the season. Both teams actually shot pretty well in that game so there was nothing fluky about it being low scoring. La Salle is now 5-0 UNDER in its last five games overall with 138 or fewer combined points in four of those five games. George Washington is 3-1 UNDER in its last four games overall with 138 or fewer combined points in three of those four. The Colonials have really struggled scoring since losing Garrett Johnson (13.4 PPG, 40.3% 3-pointers) to injury in mid-February. George Washington is 8-0 UNDER in its last eight road/neutral games after losing 12 or more of its last 15 games. La Salle is 13-5 UNDER in conference games this season. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday. |
|||||||
03-10-24 | Illinois v. Iowa OVER 171.5 | 73-61 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
15* CBB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Illinois/Iowa OVER 171.5 Illinois is a dead nuts OVER team. The Fighting Illini rank 65th in adjusted tempo and 4th in adjusted offense this season. Brad Underwood has by far his best offensive team in his time at Illinois, but it's also his worst defensive team. The Fighting Illini look to run every chance they get and play little defense to boot. Illinois is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 games overall with 162 or more combined points in nine of those 10 games. The OVER is 13-2 in their 15 games overall as well. The books just haven't been able to set their totals high enough probably because of the perception of the Big Ten, and we're getting another good value on the OVER 171.5 points today. Now Illinois faces another dead nuts OVER team in Iowa that will run right with them. The Hawkeyes rank 26th in adjusted tempo and 9th in adjusted offense. These teams just met on February 24th and a 95-85 shootout was the result for 180 combined points. Neither team shot the lights out either as Iowa went 4-of-12 (33.3%) from 3 while Illinois went 10-of-27 (37%). It will be more of the same with a shootout in the rematch here tonight. Illinois is 11-1 OVER in road games this season. Iowa is 11-4 OVER in home games this season. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
|||||||
03-10-24 | Illinois v. Iowa +2 | Top | 73-61 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 35 m | Show |
25* College Basketball GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa +2 The Iowa Hawkeyes have battled their way back onto the bubble of the NCAA Tournament. They have gone 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games overall with home wins over Wisconsin and Penn State, as well as upset road wins over Michigan State and Northwestern. Now the Hawkeyes want revenge from their lone loss during this stretch which came 95-85 at Illinois. That was a close game throughout before the Fighting Illini pulled away in the final minutes. Iowa actually led 66-61 with 11 minutes left. They know they can play with this team, and now they get them at home where they are 12-3 SU this season. This is a terrible spot for Illinois. The Fighting Illini are coming off a 77-71 home loss to Purdue in which they had a shot to win the Big Ten regular season title had they won that game. But now they are locked into the #2 seed in the Big Ten Tournament and have nothing to play for. They won't be that motivated to beat Iowa again after just beating them two weeks ago. I expect a very flat effort from the Fighting Illini as a result. Iowa is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after a game with 24 or more assists. The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games after scoring 75 points or more in four consecutive games. Wrong team favored here. Bet Iowa Sunday. |
|||||||
03-10-24 | Drake v. Indiana State UNDER 151.5 | Top | 84-80 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 38 m | Show |
20* Drake/Indiana State MVC No-Brainer on UNDER 151.5 MVC Tournament UNDERS have been a great bet for the last 20 years hitting around 65%. That includes 7-3 to start the 2024 MVC Tournament which would be 8-2 if the Illinois-Chicago/Southern Illinois game didn't go to OT. It would also be 9-1 without that OT game if you got a good number on the Drake/Bradley game yesterday which we had at 140, but closed 138 and landed 139. The Enterprise Center in St. Louis is clearly one of the worst shooting backgrounds in the country. I love betting UNDERS in winner-take-all games like this MVC Championship Game. Nerves are rampant, defensive intensity is high and these games just seem to slow down. I think we're getting extra value on the UNDER after Indiana State shot the lights out yesterday making 57.4% as a team and an unsustainable 15-of-29 (51.7%) from 3 against Northern Iowa. That was the only MVC Tournament game that went way over in this entire tournament. Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and this will be their 3rd meeting this season. After combining for 167 points in their first meeting in a FT fest, these teams combined for just 142 points in their 2nd meeting. I expect this 3rd and final meeting to finish in the low 140's as well. Drake has allowed 75 or fewer points in 10 of its last 13 games overall. That includes an average of 63.7 points per game in its last three games. Indiana State has allowed 77 or fewer points in seven consecutive games and 11 of its last 12. I don't expect either team to top 75 points in this one. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
|||||||
03-09-24 | UNLV +6.5 v. Nevada | 65-75 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 14 m | Show | |
15* UNLV/Nevada MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on UNLV +6.5 The UNLV Rebels are riding the quietest 10-1 run you will ever see. Most left this team for dead, but the Rebels have played their way back onto the bubble by upsetting the likes of New Mexico on the road as well as Colorado State and San Diego State at home. Now the Rebels desperately want revenge on their biggest rivals in Nevada, which handed them their only loss during this 10-1 run. It was a game they let get away as they were in control of the game deep into the 2H, but poor FT shooting and turnovers allowed the Wolf Pack to erase a big deficit and steal a 69-66 win at UNLV. Nevada is a lock to make the NCAA Tournament and won't be nearly as motivated to beat UNLV again as a result. The Wolf Pack are also coming off a 76-66 upset road win at Boise State, setting them up for a prime letdown spot. They haven't been nearly as good at home as they have been on the road this season. They have failed to cover the spread in two of their last three home games including an upset loss to New Mexico. UNLV is 8-2 ATS as an underdog this season. The Rebels are 7-1 ATS when revenging a loss this season. Nevada is 16-31 ATS in its last 47 home games off three consecutive conference wins. Bet UNLV Saturday. |
|||||||
03-09-24 | Arizona v. USC OVER 159.5 | 65-78 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 46 m | Show | |
15* Arizona/USC ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 159.5 USC has been an OVER team when they've been healthy. Well, the Trojans are fully healthy right now and having no problem scoring. They have gone 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall. The key has been having their top two scorers in Isaiah Collier (16.6 PPG) and Boogie Ellis (17.0 PPG) on the court. Both are healthy now and thriving. Both Ellis and Collier were out of the lineup in their 82-67 home loss to Arizona that saw just 149 combined points in their first meeting this season. Having them back will make all the difference in not only keeping the Trojans competitive in the rematch, but also helping us cash this OVER 159.5 ticket. Arizona is a dead nuts OVER team. The Wildcats rank 15th in adjusted tempo and 6th in adjusted offense. They have scored at least 80 points in 11 of their last 12 games with the lone exception being against Washington State, which is an elite defensive team that plays at a snail's pace. The Wildcats average 90.3 points per game this season and will push 90 in this game to help pave the way to cashing this OVER ticket. Arizona is 7-1 OVER in road games when playing just its 2nd game in a week this season. The Wildcats are 8-0 OVER in their last eight road games after playing a road game. USC is 20-10 OVER in all games this season, including 10-3 OVER as underdogs. The Trojans are 13-2 OVER in their last 15 games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
|||||||
03-09-24 | Minnesota v. Northwestern UNDER 141.5 | 66-90 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 57 m | Show | |
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota/Northwestern UNDER 141.5 Northwestern is a dead nuts UNDER team. The Wildcats rank 343rd in adjusted tempo and 70th in adjusted defense. They are 5-2 UNDER in their last seven games overall with 138 or fewer combined points in five of those seven games. They are a banged up team right now missing some key pieces to their offense as well and are coming off a 53-49 slug fest against Michigan State. The Wildcats will control the tempo playing at home, but it's not like Minnesota likes to run anyway. The Golden Gophers are 231st in adjusted tempo this season. They are playing for their NCAA Tournament lives right now and will have a big defensive effort as a result. Minnesota beat Northwestern 75-66 (OT) in their first meeting this season at home. That games was tied 61-61 at the end of regulation for just 122 combined points. So we have nearly 20 points to spare here in the rematch with this 141.5-point total. Minnesota and Northwestern have combined for 142 or fewer points at the end of regulation in eight consecutive meetings, so this has been a grinder of a series. Minnesota is 9-2 UNDER in its last 11 games after scoring 25 points or fewer in the first half last game. Northwestern is 81-52 UNDER in its last 133 home games when revenging a loss. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday. |
|||||||
03-09-24 | DePaul v. Seton Hall -23.5 | 62-86 | Win | 100 | 20 h 29 m | Show | |
15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Seton Hall -23.5 Seton Hall is squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.The Pirates came up big with a 66-56 home win over fellow bubble team Villanova in their last game. They cannot afford a letdown here against DePaul if they want to make the Big Dance, so they will be fully focused and put away the Blue Demons in blowout fashion. Fading DePaul has been a great move here of late. The Blue Demons are a mess after firing head coach Tony Stubblefield and just ready for this season to be over. They are 0-19 SU & 6-13 ATS in Big East play this season while getting outscored by 23.9 points per game. They are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall nine of those losses by double-digits and seven by 19 points or more. That includes their 72-39 home loss to Seton Hall in their first meeting this season on January 30th. That 33-point loss will be a sign up things to come today, and it's why I'm willing to lay the big number here on the Pirates in the rematch as 23.5-point favorites knowing that they'll be motivated to get margin. DePaul is 4-14 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points this season. The Blue Demons are 1-12 ATS vs. good rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season. Bet Seton Hall Saturday. |
|||||||
03-09-24 | Connecticut v. Providence +10.5 | 74-60 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 9 m | Show | |
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Providence +10.5 Providence is squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament. The Friars could really use a signature win here against UConn to punch their ticket. They will be max motivated to do just that at home on Senior Day tonight. I think their effort will be good enough to stay within this 10.5-point spread at the very least. UConn clinched the Big East regular season title and swept Marquette with a 74-67 road win last time out. I think this is a flat spot for the Huskies now as they will be looking ahead to the Big East tournament and are a lock to get a #1 seed for the NCAA Tournament regardless of how they finish this season. Providence already showed it could hang with UConn on the road in their first meeting this season, losing 74-65 as 13-point road dogs on January 31st. They can certainly keep it within single-digits again at home in the rematch here as 10.5-point dogs. Providence is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games as a home underdog or PK. The Friars are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games when playing against a top-level team that wins more than 80% of their games. Providence is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games vs. top teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game. The Friars are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game. Bet Providence Saturday. |
|||||||
03-09-24 | NC State v. Pittsburgh -6.5 | 73-81 | Win | 100 | 20 h 56 m | Show | |
15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Pittsburgh -6.5 The Pittsburgh Panthers are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament. They are playing with a chip on their shoulder right now because of it. They have gone 10-3 SU & 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall with road wins over Duke and Virginia, as well as home wins over Wake Forest and Virginia Tech yet they are still on the bubble. The Panthers have been rolling at home during this stretch going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five home games beating Florida State by 15, VA Tech by 15, Louisville by 27, Notre Dame by 10 and Wake Forest by 5. Now they are at home again on Senior Day in what will be a great atmosphere. NC State has gone the other direction, playing their way off the bubble and into the NIT at best. The Wolfpack have gone 4-9 SU in their last 13 games overall. They have lost three consecutive games, including a 15-point home loss to Duke last time out. They know their only chance of making the Big Dance is winning the ACC Tournament now, so they won't be motivated again until it gets here. I expect a very flat effort from the Wolfpack tonight. Pittsburgh is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 80 points or more in two consecutive games. Bet Pittsburgh Saturday. |
|||||||
03-09-24 | Bradley v. Drake UNDER 140 | Top | 67-72 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
20* Bradley/Drake MVC No-Brainer on UNDER 140 MVC Tournament UNDERS have been a great bet for the last 20 years hitting around 65%. That includes 7-1 to start the 2024 MVC Tournament which would be 8-0 if the Illinois-Chicago/Southern Illinois game didn't go to OT. The Enterprise Center in St. Louis is clearly one of the worst shooting backgrounds in the country. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between Drake and Bradley, who met in the MVC Tournament Championship Game last year. Drake won that game 77-51 for just 128 combined points. They also combined for 134 points four meetings ago, and 141 and 140 points in their first two regular season meetings this season. These teams met in the regular season finale so familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. They combined to shoot 32-of-33 from the FT line yet still only combined for 140 points. The 3rd and final meeting here will stay UNDER 140. Bradley has really stepped up its defense down the stretch allowing 59.0 points per game and 35.3% shooting in its last five games. Drake showed what it is capable of defensively when focused in its last two games holding Bradley to 66 and Evansville to 58 points. Drake is 6-0 UNDER in its last six March games. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday. |
|||||||
03-09-24 | Kansas +8.5 v. Houston | 46-76 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 44 m | Show | |
15* Kansas/Houston ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Kansas +8.5 The Kansas Jayhawks are a real contender with a healthy Kevin McCullar Jr. (19.1 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 4.3 APG). He does a little bit of everything for this team. He has returned from injury in their last two games and shown very little signs of injury, scoring 20 points against Baylor and 19 against Kansas State. Houston has already clinched the Big 12 title and thus I think this may be a letdown spot for them. Kansas is used to winning the Big 12, and they can at least get some solace in sweeping the season series after crushing Houston 78-65 at home in their first meeting this season. Nobody has played Houston better than Kansas did this season. The Cougars are not only vulnerable after clinching the Big 12, but they are also a very banged up team right now and lacking depth. They have lost key role players in Joseph Tugler, Ramon Walker Jr. and Terrance Arceneaux to season-ending injuries. That puts a lot of pressure on their starters to play big minutes and fatigue will be a factor for them moving forward. This is a big number for the Cougars to be laying against a team that caliber of the Jayhawks. Bet Kansas Saturday. |
|||||||
03-09-24 | Miami-FL v. Florida State -3 | 75-83 | Win | 100 | 17 h 32 m | Show | |
15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida State -3 The Miami Hurricanes have flat out quit. They made the Final 4 last season and brought back all but two or three key players from that team and were expected to make another run this season. But they sit at just 15-15 this season and their only hope of getting back to the big dance is winning the ACC Tournament. They have just been going through the motions waiting for it to get here. Indeed, Miami is 0-8 SU & 2-6 ATS in its last eight games overall with all eight losses by 4 points or more. The Hurricanes are coming off a 67-57 home loss to Boston College which was their 5th loss by double-digits during this 8-game skid. I don't see them showing up at all for the regular season finale against Florida State, either. The Seminoles have been solid at home this season and have won their last two home games 90-83 over NC State and 84-76 over Boston College. They have not quit and would love nothing more than to sweep their rivals in the Hurricanes after beating them 84-75 on the road in their first meeting this season. Bet Florida State Saturday. |
|||||||
03-09-24 | Kentucky v. Tennessee OVER 166 | Top | 85-81 | Push | 0 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
20* SEC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Kentucky/Tennessee OVER 166 Kentucky is a dead nuts OVER team. The Wildcats rank 12th in adjusted tempo and 8th in adjusted offense, plus this is one of John Calipari's worst defensive teams since he took over in Lexington. Kentucky is 22-8 OVER in all games this season, including 4-0 in their last four with 170 or more combined points in all four. Tennessee ranks 73rd in adjusted tempo and 21st in adjusted offense. The Volunteers have their best offensive team of the Rick Barnes era and they are playing much faster this season as a result. That was on display in their 103-92 win at Kentucky on February 3rd in their first meeting this season for 195 combined points. It should be more of the same in the rematch. The Wildcats are 18-2 OVER after a combined score of 165 points or more this season. The books just haven't been able to set their totals high enough this season and they have failed to do so again today. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
|||||||
03-09-24 | Kentucky +8.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 85-81 | Win | 100 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
20* Kentucky/Tennessee CBS No-Brainer on Kentucky +8.5 The Tennessee Vols just won 66-59 at South Carolina to clinch the outright SEC title. They already beat Kentucky 103-92 on the road in their first meeting this season as well. I think this is the ultimate flat spot for the Volunteers as a result. Kentucky wants revenge from that defeat, plus they have a lot to play for with a first-round bye in the SEC Tournament at stake. The Wildcats have played much better since that defeat back on February 3rd. They have gone 7-2 SU since with the two losses coming by a combined 5 points. They upset Auburn 70-59 as 8.5-point road dogs and they have what it takes to take down Tennessee, too. Kentucky is 7-1 ATS in road games off two consecutive games as a favorite this season. You rarely get the opportunity to back the Wildcats as this big of underdogs, and we'll take advantage today. Bet Kentucky Saturday. |
|||||||
03-09-24 | Northern Iowa v. Indiana State UNDER 147.5 | Top | 72-94 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
20* Northern Iowa/Indiana State MVC No-Brainer on UNDER 147.5 MVC Tournament UNDERS have been a great bet for the last 20 years hitting around 65%. That includes 7-1 to start the 2024 MVC Tournament which would be 8-0 if the Illinois-Chicago/Southern Illinois game didn't go to OT. The Enterprise Center in St. Louis is clearly one of the worst shooting backgrounds in the country. Each of the last two meetings between Indiana State and Northern Iowa went UNDER the total in the regular season. Indiana State won 80-62 on the road for 142 combined points in their final meeting last season, and the Sycamores won 77-66 for 143 combined points in their lone meeting this season. Northern Iowa has been playing elite defense here down the stretch holding eight of their last 10 opponents to 71 points or fewer. They held a high-octane Belmont offense to just 62 points yesterday in their 67-62 win that saw 129 combined points. Indiana State is better defensively than it gets credit for. The Sycamores have held nine of their last 11 opponents to 74 points or fewer. They held Missouri State to 59 points yesterday in a 75-59 win that saw just 134 combined points. Northern Iowa is 6-0 UNDER off three or more consecutive wins this season. The Panthers are 24-10 UNDER in their last 34 conference tournament games. The Sycamores are 8-2 UNDER in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday. |
|||||||
03-09-24 | Creighton v. Villanova UNDER 137.5 | 69-67 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show | |
15* Creighton/Villanova FOX ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 137.5 Villanova is a dead nuts UNDER team. The Wildcats rank 348th in adjusted tempo and 13th in adjusted defense. The UNDER is 6-0 in their last six games overall with 134 or fewer combined points in all six games. Creighton is more of an UNDER team than most realize. They also play slow ranking just 230th in pace and are better defensively than they get credit for, ranking 24th in adjusted defense. Villanova beat Creighton 68-66 (OT) in their first meeting this season in a game that was tied 58-58 at the end of regulation for just 116 combined points. The UNDER is now 4-2 in the last six meetings with 127 or fewer points at the end of regulation four times. They have gone for 138 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in nine of their last 12 meetings as well. Creighton is 8-2 UNDER in road games vs. a team with a winning record this season. The Bluejays are 8-1 UNDER in road games vs. teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season. Villanova is 10-1 UNDER vs. teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday. |
|||||||
03-09-24 | South Carolina v. Mississippi State -4 | 93-89 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 19 m | Show | |
15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Mississippi State -4 I love the spot for the Mississippi State Bulldogs this afternoon. They have played their way back onto the bubble of the NCAA Tournament by losing three consecutive games against an absolutely brutal schedule. They lost by 2 at home to Kentucky and lost on the road to both Auburn and Texas A&M. Now the Bulldogs return home on Senior Day and will be highly motivated for revenge from a 68-62 road loss at South Carolina in their first meeting this season. I think they catch the Gamecocks at the perfect time. South Carolina just lost to Tennessee 66-59 at home on Wednesday in a game that was for 1st place in the SEC. The Volunteers won and won the outright SEC title as a result. I think the Gamecocks are in a massive letdown and hangover spot from that defeat, and we will see one of their worst efforts of the season because of it. Mississippi State is 14-3 SU in its last 17 home meetings with South Carolina. The Bulldogs are 6-2 SU at home in SEC play with wins over both Tennessee and Auburn, which are the top two teams in the conference. Their two losses came to Kentucky and Alabama by a combined 10 points. Mississippi State is 80-37 ATS in its last 117 games after losing three of its last four games. The Bulldogs are 148-113 ATS in their last 261 games revenging a loss. Mississippi State is 41-21 ATS in its last 62 games after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games. This is a great 'buy low' spot on the Bulldogs. Bet Mississippi State Saturday. |
|||||||
03-09-24 | Creighton v. Villanova +105 | Top | 69-67 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
20* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Villanova ML +105 Villanova has played its way onto the bubble of the NCAA Tournament with its best basketball of the season here down the stretch. The Wildcats have gone 6-3 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with their three losses all coming on the road to UConn, Seton Hall and Xavier. They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home during this stretch with four blowout wins over Providence by 18, Seton Hall by 26, Butler by 10 and Georgetown by 28. The Wildcats could punch their ticket with a 2nd win over Creighton this season and will be max motivated to do so. They beat Creighton 68-66 on the road in their first meeting this season. They are 8-2 SU in their last 10 home meetings with the Bluejays and have really had their number. Creighton is just 3-3 SU in its last six Big East road games with two narrow wins over Xavier and Seton Hall as well as a blowout win over reeling Butler. They lost by 14 at UConn, lost by 4 at Providence and lost by 14 at St. John's in their most recent road game. They are clearly vulnerable away from home. The Bluejays don't have much to play for either as they are locked into the 2nd or 3rd seed in the Big East Tournament. Villanova is 6-0 ATS in home games with a total of 130 to 139.5 this season. The Wildcats are 8-2 ATS in home games when playing just their 2nd game in a week this season. Villanova is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games vs. teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game. Bet Villanova on the Money Line Saturday. |
|||||||
03-09-24 | Oklahoma v. Texas UNDER 144.5 | Top | 80-94 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
20* Oklahoma/Texas ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 144.5 Oklahoma is a dead nuts UNDER team. The Sooners rank 223rd in adjusted tempo and 25th in adjusted defense. The Sooners are without John Hugley IV (8.4 PPG, 54.8% FG's) and could be without Javian McCollum (13.6 PPG), who missed their last game with a shoulder injury and is questionable. Texas also plays slower than average ranking 209th in adjusted tempo and 47th in adjusted defense. Leading scorer Dylan Disu (16.1 PPG, 51.4% 3-pointers) was forced from their last game early with a knee injury and is questionable to go Saturday as well. But the biggest reason for this UNDER play is the head-to-head history between hated rivals Oklahoma and Texas. The Sooners and Longhorns have combined for 139 or fewer points at the end of regulation five of their last six meetings and 146 in the one that didn't. This has been an UNDER series. Oklahoma is 7-1 UNDER in its last eight games vs. a good team that wins 60-80% of its games. The Sooners are 20-8 UNDER in their last 28 games when revenging a home loss by 10 points or more. Rodney Terry is 9-1 UNDER after allowing 90 points or more as a head coach. Terry is 10-1 UNDER after a combined score of 175 points or more as a head coach. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday. |
|||||||
03-09-24 | Memphis +7 v. Florida Atlantic | 84-92 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
15* Memphis/FAU CBS Early ANNIHILATOR on Memphis +7 Memphis (22-8) has played its way back onto the bubble of the NCAA Tournament by playing some clutch basketball here down the stretch. The Tigers are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall beating Charlotte by 24 at home as 6-point favorites, upsetting FAU 78-74 as 1.5-point home dogs, crushing ECU by 24 as 4.5-point road favorites and crushing UAB by 19 as 7-point home favorites. Now the Tigers get a chance to beat FAU for a 2nd time this season which would almost surely get them in the Big Dance. I know we will get their best effort, and fading Florida Atlantic has been a very profitable endeavor for myself and premium clients in AAC play this season. FAU has been grossly overvalued in conference play after making the Final 4 last year and beating Arizona in the non-conference. The Owls are just 5-12 ATS in conference play this season and have been very fortunate in close games. In fact, they have seven wins by 10 points or less in conference play despite this conference being way down. Memphis is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 games as an underdog. The Tigers are 33-16 ATS in their last 49 games as road dogs of 6.5 to 12 points, including 8-1 ATS in this role under current head coach Penny Hardaway. Bet Memphis Saturday. |
|||||||
03-09-24 | Arkansas v. Alabama OVER 173.5 | Top | 88-92 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
20* CBB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Arkansas/Alabama OVER 173.5 Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team. The Crimson Tide rank 1st in adjusted offense and 11th in adjusted tempo in the entire country. They have scored 81 or more points in 10 of their last 11 games, including 95 or more in seven of those. Nate Oats has one of the worst defensive teams he has ever had at Alabama this season as well allowing 88 or more points in six of their last eight games. The OVER is 8-1 in Alabama's last nine games overall with 166 or more combined points in eight of those nine games, including 175 or more in seven of those. Arkansas likes to run as well ranking 34th in adjusted tempo, so this game is going to be played at a rapid pace. The Razorbacks have scored at least 82 points in four consecutive games. They have also allowed 83 or more in three striaght, which is really bad when you consider LSU and Vanderbilt were two of those teams. Arkansas is 12-1 OVER following a win this season. The Razorbacks are 10-1 OVER after scoring 80 points or more this season. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
|||||||
03-09-24 | Arkansas +15 v. Alabama | Top | 88-92 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
20* Arkansas/Alabama ESPN No-Brainer on Arkansas +15 The Arkansas Razorbacks have been fighting hard for head coach Eric Musselman here down the stretch. They have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. They only lost by 4 as 11-point dogs at Mississippi State, upset Texas A&M 78-71 as 11.5-point road dogs and took Kentucky to the wire in a 9-point loss at 13-point dogs in their last three road games. Now the Razorbacks are catching too many points today against a reeling, overrated Alabama team that doesn't play defense. The Crimson Tide are 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. They needed OT to beat Florida at home and needed to overcome a double-digit 2H deficit to beat Ole Miss. They lost by 22 at Kentucky, by 7 at home to Tennessee and by 18 at Florida. They have allowed 81 or more points in all five games and seven of their last eight games overall. Alabama is 0-7 ATS off two consecutive games where they had five or fewer steals. Bet Arkansas Saturday. |
|||||||
03-08-24 | Boise State v. San Diego State UNDER 137.5 | 79-77 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 23 m | Show | |
15* Boise State/San Diego State FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 137.5 San Diego State is a dead nuts UNDER team. The Aztecs rank 248th in adjusted tempo and 9th in adjusted defense. Boise State also likes to play slow ranking 221st in adjusted tempo and 33rd in adjusted defense. That's why it is no surprise that a defensive battle is usually the result when these two teams get together. Indeed, the UNDER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings and would be 8-0 in the last eight if not for OT. Boise State and San Diego State have combined for 134 or fewer points in each of their last eight meetings. They have averaged just 116.3 combined points at the end of regulation in those eight meetings, so we have about 21 points to spare here with this 137.5-point total. San Diego State is 9-0 UNDER In its last nine March games. The Aztecs are 12-1 UNDER in their last 13 games following three or more consecutive unders. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday. |
|||||||
03-08-24 | Illinois-Chicago v. Bradley -10.5 | Top | 47-74 | Win | 100 | 20 h 33 m | Show |
20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Bradley -10.5 Head coach Brian Wardle always has his Bradley Braves (21-10) playing their best basketball in the MVC Tournament. The Braves will be ready for another run in 2024, and it starts today against lowly Illinois-Chicago (12-20). Bradley has a rest advantage after getting a bye into the quarterfinals while Illinois-Chicago needed 2 OT to beat Southern Illinois 84-82 last night. It's safe to say the Flames will be running on fumes tonight. Three starters played at least 46 minutes for the Flames last night and they have just a 7-man rotation with zero depth They won't have anything left in the tank for Bradley. Bradley beat Illinois-Chicago 77-59 on the road and 85-73 at home. So they have already covered this 10.5-point spread in both meetings this season, and that domination should continue in the 3rd and final meeting given their rest advantage. Bet Bradley Friday. |
|||||||
03-08-24 | Evansville v. Drake UNDER 150.5 | Top | 58-79 | Win | 100 | 18 h 50 m | Show |
20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Evansville/Drake UNDER 150.5 MVC Tournament UNDERS have been a great bet for the last decade hitting around 65%. That includes 3-1 to start the 2024 MVC Tournament which would be 4-0 if the Illinois-Chicago/Southern Illinois game didn't go to OT. The Enterprise Center in St. Louis is clearly one of the worst shooting backgrounds in the country. Evansville beat Illinois State 59-53 for just 112 combined points yesterday. This opening total of 150.5 against Drake has been set way too high today. Evansville is terrible offensively ranking 232nd in adjusted offense while averaging just 61.3 points per game in its last four game. Drake ranks 85th in adjusted defense and will hold the Purple Aces in check. Drake beat Evansville 97-48 for 145 combined points in their first meeting this season. Drake won 78-75 in the 2nd meeting but both teams shot lights out, which is unlikely to happen again. Drake shot 13-of-27 (48.1%) from 3 while Evansville shot 50% from the field and 8-of-18 (44.4%) from 3. Yet that game still only saw 153 combined points. This game likely won't be as close with Drake winning in a blowout, which should mean no FT's at the end in the foul game. Evansville is a perfect 11-0 UNDER after four straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or fewer turnovers this season. The Purple Aces are 8-1 UNDER in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday. |
|||||||
03-08-24 | Belmont v. Northern Iowa UNDER 153.5 | 62-67 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show | |
15* CBB Friday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Belmont/Northern Iowa UNDER 153.5 MVC Tournament UNDERS have been a great bet for the last decade hitting around 65%. That includes 3-1 to start the 2024 MVC Tournament which would be 4-0 if the Illinois-Chicago/Southern Illinois game didn't go to OT. The Enterprise Center in St. Louis is clearly one of the worst shooting backgrounds in the country. Northern Iowa ranks 239th in adjusted tempo and likes to slow it down. The Panthers will have to try to slow it down to a snail's pace to counteract Belmont. I don't know that it will work as Belmont is pretty efficient offensively, but it gives them their best chance to win. Belmont has really picked it up defensively here down the stretch which has been the key to their 8-1 run. They have held six of their last nine opponents to 68 points or fewer and I think they can do the same against Northern Iowa, which struggles offensively. The Panthers have held 12 of their last 16 opponents to 72 points or fewer. I'd be surprised if either team got to 80 points in this one, which is what it will take for us to lose this UNDER. Belmont is 13-1 UNDER after winning four or five of its last six games this season. Belmont doesn't get to the FT line often averaging just 18 attempts per game. But they don't foul either giving up 16 attempts per game. Northern Iowa is also great at playing defensive without fouling allowing 17 attempts per game. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday. |
|||||||
03-08-24 | Belmont +1.5 v. Northern Iowa | Top | 62-67 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
25* MVC Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Belmont +1.5 Belmont is playing better than anyone in the MVC since they got fully healthy. I bet the Bruins +2100 to win the MVC Tournament and you can still find +1900 out there heading into this game. You'll likely see me back this team in every game until they lose because they are grossly undervalued. Belmont is 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in its last nine games overall with its lone loss coming on the road to Drake, which didn't lose a single home game this season. Seven of the eight wins came by 15 points or more so these games haven't even been close. That includes their 86-61 win over Valparaiso in the opener of the MVC Tournament. They led by 26 at halftime and were able to get their starters rest in the 2H and will still be fresh for this game. While most MVC teams have struggled shooting at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis over the years including to open this tournament, Belmont has not. The Bruins shot 52.4% as a team and made 10 3-pointers yesterday. This is one of the best shooting teams in the country since they got healthy, shooting 47.4% or better in seven of their last eight games, including 50% or better in five of them. Northern Iowa can't match Belmont in the shooting department and has slipped defensively this season. Belmont shot 52.6% in a 90-70 win at Northern Iowa in their first meeting this season. The Bruins shot a solid 47.5% and 40% from 3 in a home loss to the Panthers in the rematch, but they weren't fully healthy for that game. Ja'Kobi Gillespie (17.5 PPG, 57% FG) scored 18 points in that first meeting which was a win, and he didn't play in the game that they lost to UNI. Having him healthy has made all the difference for this team. Bet Belmont Friday. |
|||||||
03-07-24 | Arizona State v. USC OVER 144 | 73-81 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
15* ASU/USC FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 144 USC has been an OVER team when they've been healthy. Well, the Trojans are fully healthy right now and having no problem scoring. They have gone 5-2 OVER in their last seven games overall with 147 or more combined points in five of those seven games, including 157 or more in four of those. Arizona State is 5-2 OVER in its last seven games overall and has allowed 77 or more points in eight of its last 11 games, including 80 or more seven times. Both teams like to play with pace as ASU ranks 79th in adjusted tempo while USC ranks 123rd. Arizona State beat USC 82-67 earlier this season for 149 combined points. Neight team shot well in that game as ASU shot 42.9% overall and 30.8% from 3, while USC shot 46.6% overall but just 4-of-14 (26.7%) from 3. USC was without its top two scorers in Isaiah Collier (17.0 PPG) and Boogie Ellis (16.6 PPG) in that contest as well. Both are healthy now and thriving. The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 146 or more combined points in three of the four. USC is 12-2 OVER vs. teams that average 21 or more 3-point attempts per game this season. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday. |