Winning Sports Picks

20* Pelicans/Thunder TNT No-Brainer on New Orleans +8

The Oklahoma City Thunder are a young team getting their first taste of the playoffs.  They played like it in Game 1 being very fortunate to come away with a 94-92 victory over the New Orleans Pelicans.  I don't expect Game 2 to be a walk in the park for them, either.

The Pelicans are a veteran team with playoff experience and know the importance of trying to get one in Oklahoma City.  They shot just 38.5% as a team and 11-of-39 (28.2%) from 3-point range in Game 1 and still only lost by 2.  They dominated on the boards including 18 offensive rebounds, and the Thunder don't have an answer for Jonas Valanciunas in this series.  Dominating the board is sustainable, shooting that poorly again is not.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series.  In fact, the road team is 7-1 SU & 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Neither team has been favored by more than 5.5 points in any of the last 12 meetings with the exception of the 8.5-point spread in Game 1.  This 8-point spread in Game 2 is too high as well.  Bet the Pelicans Wednesday.

15* Pacers/Bucks NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +1.5

The Indiana Pacers went 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS against the Milwaukee Bucks in the regular season.  This is clearly a great matchup for them, but it didn't play out that way in Game 1 as Damian Lillard scored 35 first half points and it was just too much for them to overcome.

Lillard won't be as hot again, and the Bucks won't out shoot the Pacers like they did in Game 1.  The Pacers shot just 39.6% from the field and 8-of-39 (20.5%) from 3-point range.  I have to think they will have some major positive shooting regression in their favor in Game 2.

The Bucks are expected to be without Giannis Antetokounmpo again in Game 2.  They can play one good game without him, but to continue to play great games without him is unsustainable.  He's one of the best players in the NBA for a reason with all he can do on both ends of the court.

Indiana is 26-11 ATS off an ATS loss this season.  The Pacers are 7-0 ATS in Tuesday road games this season.  Indiana is 28-14 ATS when playing its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  The Pacers are 20-6 ATS against teams that average 7 or fewer steals per game this season.  Bet the Pacers in Game 2 Tuesday.

25* NBA Western Conference Round 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles +7.5

This is a must-win game for the Lakers if they want to give Denver a series.  I expect their biggest effort of the season to try and get it done in Game 2.  They should not be catching 7.5 points to the Nuggets here tonight.

The Lakers outplayed the Nuggets in three of four quarters in Game 1.  Unfortunately, they came out flat after halftime after taking a 3-point lead into the break.  They lost the 3rd quarter 32-18.  I expect them to make the right adjustments coming out of the break this time around.

The Nuggets took 23 more shots than the Lakers and only committed 4 turnovers in Game 1 yet still only won by 11.  That's going to be very hard for them to replicate.  I expect Game 2 to come down to the wire with the Lakers with an excellent chance to pull off the outright upset, so getting 7.5 points here is a tremendous value.  Bet the Lakers in Game 2 Monday.

20* Pelicans/Thunder TNT Sunday Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +8.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder beat the Pelicans in the play-in round last year to knock them out of the playoffs.  The Thunder went on to lose to the Timberwolves in their next play-in game, so they didn't get the full playoff experience.

The Pelicans have not forgotten and they want revenge.  The Thunder are the No. 1 seed in the West, but none of these players have real playoff experience.  I think that will work against them and this young team is extremely vulnerable as a result.  They should not be 8.5-point favorites over the battle-tested Pelicans in Game 1 tonight.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series.  In fact, the road team is 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Neither team has been favored by more than 5.5 points in any of the last 11 meetings, so this 8.5-point spread is unprecedented.  It's simply too many points tonight.  Bet the Pelicans Sunday.

20* Lakers/Nuggets ABC No-Brainer on Los Angeles +7.5

The Los Angeles Lakers made the Western Conference Finals last year and got swept by the Denver Nuggets.  The series was much closer than the 4-game sweep would indicate as the Lakers just couldn't finish games late.  Three games were decided by 6 points or fewer.

The Lakers then went on to get swept by the Nuggets in the regular season.  It's safe to say the Lakers want revenge on the Nuggets, and it starts with Game 1 of this series as inflated 7.5-point dogs.  You're paying a tax on the Nuggets now after winning the NBA Finals last year, and I think they will be a great team to fade in these playoffs as a result.

The Lakers are finally nearly fully healthy and playing their best basketball of the season.  They went 12-3 SU in their last 15 games just to make the playoffs, including their clutch 110-106 road win at New Orleans in the play-in game.  They weren't afraid of the Nuggets by winning that game knowing that would be their matchup.  They 'want all that smoke', and I expect LeBron James and company to come up clutch and give the Nuggets a run for their money in this series, starting with Game 1.  Bet the Lakers Saturday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder -19.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder have gone 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall to put themselves in position to clinch the No. 1 seed in the West.  They will clinch the No. 1 seed with a win today, and will be max motivated to do so.

The Dallas Mavericks are locked in to the No. 5 seed in the West.  They are one of the few Western Conference teams that are locked into their seeding.  As a result, they are resting all of their best players in Doncic, Irving, Lively II, Gafford, Washington, Jones Jr., Exum and Kleber.

It did not go well for the Mavericks last game without Doncic and Irving as they lost outright as 11-point home favorites to the Pistons 107-89, failing to cover the spread by 29 points.  But they even had four of those players that are sitting today playing in that game.  They will have arguably the worst lineup in the entire NBA playing today, and I don't see them staying within 20 points of the Thunder as a result.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies +13.5

The Denver Nuggets blew the No. 1 seed by losing 121-120 at the buzzer to the Spurs as 11.5-point favorites last game.  They are now in a 3-way tie with the Thunder and Timberwolves for 1st place in the West with one game to go.  But they lose the tiebreaker to both teams.

The problem is the Thunder are 19.5-point favorites over the Mavericks, who are sitting everyone today.  The Nuggets know they have no shot at the No. 1 seed, so they are likely to rest everyone today.  Jokic, Murray, Porter Jr., Gordon, Caldwell-Pope and several others are all questionable, but my anticipation is they sit.

The Nuggets have no business being 13.5-point road favorites over the Grizzlies without these guys.  This is what the line would be if they were all playing.  The Grizzlies continue to show up every night, which was the case last time out in their 123-120 loss to the Lakers are 16-point dogs.  This is a gritty team with a bunch of young players playing with something to prove.  LaRavia, Jackson, Goodwin and Pippen Jr. all scored 23 or more points against the Lakers.  Bet the Grizzlies Sunday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington Wizards +9.5

The Washington Wizards continue to show up.  They have just one loss by more than 9 points in their last 12 games.  That makes for an 11-1 system backing the Wizards pertaining to this 9.5-point spread.

The Boston Celtics have announced they will be resting their 6 best players in White, Tatum, Porzingis, Horford, Holiday and Brown.  Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us without these six guys is asking too much.  Bet the Wizards Sunday.

20* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix Suns -4.5

I love the spot for the Phoenix Suns tonight.  They sit in 7th place in the West just one game behind the Pelicans for the 6th seed.  They own the tiebreaker over the Pelicans, who have to play on the road against the Warriors tonight.  The Suns are highly motivated to get out of the play-in and get that 6th seed.

The Suns are fully healthy right now and playing up to their potential.  They are 8-4 SU & 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They will be the fresher team tonight as they had yesterday off, while the Kings will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.

The Kings are running out of gas and out of bodies.  They are 1-4 SU in their last five games overall with their only win coming against the lowly Nets.  They are without Malik Monk and Kevin Heurter right now to really hurt their depth and shooting.  Fox played nearly 41 minutes last night, while Murray played 36, Barnes 33 and Sabonis 35.  They won't have anything left in the tank for the Suns tonight.  Bet the Suns Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Minnesota Timberwolves -12.5

The Atlanta Hawks have nothing to play for.  They are locked in to the 10th spot and the play-in and will have a road game against the Bulls, who they lose out on the tiebreaker to.  Their only concern is getting healthy for the play-in round now as they are dealing with a plethora of injuries.

Indeed, the Hawks are without Bey, Griffin, Johnson and Okongwu.  Dejounte Murray sat out last game with a quad injury and likely won't pay again.  Trae Young just returned from injury and they could be cautious with him as well.  I expect a very poor effort from the Hawks tonight with a lot of backups getting playing time.

The Minnesota Timberwolves still have a lot to play for.  They are tied with the Thunder for the 2nd seed and they are one game behind the Nuggets for the top seed in the West.  They are now fully healthy with Karl-Anthony Towns expected to return from his knee injury tonight.  They are going 'all in' to win their final two games and get the best seed possible.  I'll gladly back the healthier, more motivated team tonight laying the big number.  Bet the Timberwolves Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Raptors +15

The Miami Heat are content with being the 8th seed and in the play-in.  They trail the 76ers by one game for the 7th seed, and the 76ers host the Magic and Nets to close out the season and are likely to win both those games.  They trail the Pacers and Magic by two games with two to go for the 5th and 6th seeds.  They know they are essentially locked in to the 8th seed.

The Heat played like it in their last game as they lost 111-92 at home to the Dallas Mavericks.  Duncan Robinson is out Friday and Terry Rozier is questionable.  I wouldn't be surprised to see more starters sit for the Heat tonight as their main focus now is to just get healthy for the playoffs.

The Heat have no business being 15-point favorites over anyone right now given their situation.  The Raptors continue to battle and have a healthy Emmanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett in the lineup right now, plus could get back Gary Trent Jr. and Bruce Brown.  The Raptors are 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall including an outright win at Milwaukee as 14.5-point dogs.  They only lost by 4 as 11.5-point road dogs at Brooklyn despite being short-handed in their last game.  They will show up again tonight and give Miami a run for its money.

The Raptors are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Heat.  Bet the Raptors Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +10.5

The Boston Celtics have nothing to play for right now.  They locked up the No. 1 seed in the East several games ago and have been just going through the motions since.  They are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall and their last two games just showed how little they cared.

The Celtics lost 104-91 at Milwaukee as 3.5-point dogs on Tuesday before falling 118-109 as 3-point home favorites to New York on Thursday.  The Celtics tailed by 29 to the Knicks heading into the 4th quarter before they called the dogs off.  Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.

The Celtics have no business being favored by double-digits against anyone in this spot.  Their only goal right now is to get healthy for the playoffs.  They aren't concerned with blowing out Charlotte with two games to go in the regular season.  Even if they play their starters they have been resting those starters in the 4th quarter and will likely do so again.

Charlotte is 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Hornets upset the Magic 124-115 as 12-point dogs, upset the Hawks 115-114 as 9.5-point dogs and took the Thunder to the wire in a 3-point loss as 7.5-point dogs.  They have not quit, and they will relish this opportunity to try and knock off the top team in the East.  They will clearly be the more motivated team, and motivation means a lot in the NBA.  Bet the Hornets Friday.

20* Pelicans/Kings TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +1

The New Orleans Pelicans have a lot to play for tonight.  They currently sit in 6th place in the West but just 0.5 games ahead of the 7th place Suns and the play-in.  They are playing with a sense of urgency right now beating those Suns 113-105 as 6-point road dogs and beating the Blazers by double-digits on the road in their last two games coming in.

The Pelicans are the much healthier team than the Kings right now.  The Pelicans have all hands on deck outside Brandon Ingram, who has been out for about a month.  He could return tonight, but I like the Pelicans either way.

The Kings are without two of their best shooters in Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter.  If it's not them it's Keegan Murray, who is also questionable to play tonight.  The Kings have really struggled since losing Monk, going 1-3 SU in their last four games overall with their lone win coming against the lowly Nets.  They return home from a 4-game road trip and will be playing in their 5th different city in 8 days.

The Pelicans own the Kings this season.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the four meetings with four blowout wins despite being underdogs in all four.  They won by 33, 10, 5 and 36 points for an average margin of victory of 21 points per game.  This is clearly a terrible matchup for the Kings, and that's even when they were healthy.  That's not the case any more, and the wrong team is favored here tonight.  Bet the Pelicans Thursday.

20* Knicks/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on New York -2.5

The New York Knicks are back to full strength outside of Julius Randle and playing well.  They beat the Bucks 122-109 as 4.5-point road dogs and followed it up with a 128-117 win at Chicago as 4.5-point favorites in their last two games coming in.  Their solid play will continue tonight in Boston.

The reason the Knicks are favored on the road here is because they have a lot to play for, while the Celtics are locked in to the No. 1 seed in the East with nothing to play for.  The Knicks sit in 3rd place in the East just 1.5 games behind the Bucks and only 1.5 games ahead of the Pacers for the 6th spot.  They have a lot at stake here.

The Celtics have been going through the motions here down the stretch in going 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They have six key players listed as questionable tonight in Tatum, Brown, Holiday, Porzingis, Horford and Tillman.  Their only focus the rest of the way is to get healthy for a playoff run.  Bet the Knicks Thursday.

15* Suns/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -4

I love the spot for the Phoenix Suns tonight.  They are coming off an embarrassing 105-92 road loss to the Clippers last night.  They fell behind 35-4 in the 1st quarter to open the game and did a good job just to get back in it.  They shot 33.7% as a team and that's not going to happen again.

The Suns don't have to wait long for revenge as they meet in Los Angeles for the rematch tonight.  They need this game more as they sit in 7th place in the West and currently in the play-in and one game behind the Pelicans for 6th place.  They have a lot more to play for here tonight.

The Clippers are now locked in to the 4th or 5th seed.  They will likely play the Dallas Mavericks in the first round, who trail them by two games.  They don't care about home-court advantage.  They are without Kawhi Leonard and could be without James Harden again.  Meanwhile, the Suns could get back Jusuf Nurkic, but I like them to win and cover tonight no matter who plays.

The Suns have been a resilient team going 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.  They are coming off two consecutive losses and haven't lost three straight games since December 19-25.  Bet the Suns Wednesday.

25* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Pelicans -10

The New Orleans Pelicans are in 7th place in the West and currently in the play-in if the season were to end today.  But they are tied with the 6th place Suns and losing out on the tiebreaker.  They have a lot to play for here down the stretch, so they won't be taking the Portland Trail Blazers lightly tonight.

The Pelicans have played their best basketball on the road this season.  They just got back Jose Alvarado from injury and Zion Williamson showed he was healthy in their 113-105 upset win at Phoenix as 5.5-point dogs last time out.  They are only missing Brandon Ingram now, and he is scheduled to return soon.  They don't need him to crush the Blazers.

The Blazers are without their three best players in Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant and Malcom Brogdon.  They have gone 2-11 SU in their last 13 games overall with their two wins coming against the lowly Wizards and Hornets.  They return home from a 7-game road trip after a 17-point loss at Boston, and I love fading teams coming back home off an extended trip.  There's a lot of distractions they have to deal with back at home.

The Pelicans are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Blazers with all five wins coming by 9 points or more and by an average of 18.0 points per game.  It will be more of the same tonight given all that the Pelicans have to play for up against the short-handed Blazers.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* Warriors/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -1.5

The Los Angeles Lakers have gone 9-2 SU in their last 11 games overall.  LeBron James sat out their last game and they lost to the Timberwolves.  I expect him back tonight with what's at stake for the Lakers.

The Lakers currently sit in 9th place in the West but just 0.5 games behind the Kings, and 1.5 games behind both the Pelicans and Suns for the 6th seed.  They also at the very least want to get a home game agains the Warriors in the play-in, and they lead the Warriors by 1.5 games.

The Warriors seems pretty much content with the fact that they will be the 10th seed and have to go on the road in the play-in.  They sat Steph Curry last game, and Draymond Green suffered a back injury that leaves him questionable tonight.  I just don't think the Warriors are going to play this game with the sense of urgency that the Lakers will.

The Lakers also want revenge from a 128-121 home loss to the Warriors on March 16th less than a month ago.  They need this win to split the season series.  The Lakers are 27-13 SU at home and playing their best basketball of the season right now with the playoffs quickly approaching.  Bet the Lakers Tuesday.

20* Purdue/UConn CBB Championship No-Brainer on UConn -6

The UConn Huskies are 11-0 SU & 11-0 ATS in their last 11 NCAA Tournament games dating back to last season.  They have won all 11 games by 13 points or more.  Alabama shot 47.8% from 3 in the Final 4 and still lost by 14.

UConn has no weaknesses.  The Huskies rank 1st in adjusted offense and 4th in adjusted defense.  They have held seven of their last nine opponents to 60 points or fewer, including five of their last six to 58 points or fewer.

Zach Edey is the best player in college basketball, but UConn is the best team in college basketball.  The Huskies will have the edge at the four other positions on the court outside of Edey.  Plus, Edey hasn't had to face a defender as good as Donovan Klingan all season.  He is the best big man defender in the country.

Klingan will limit what Edey can do on the offensive end.  They won't have to double-team him, and that will make life much more difficult on Purdue's guards who won't be getting uncontested looks like they are accustomed to.  This is a terrible matchup for the Boilermakers.  Bet UConn Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +7.5

The San Antonio Spurs have quietly gone 4-2 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  They upset the Suns at home, the Jazz on the road, the Knicks at home and the Pelicans on the road.  They also only lost by 4 as 10.5-point home dogs to the Warriors, and by 5 as 16-point road dogs to the Nuggets.  This team is grossly undervalued right now.

The Spurs are in a favorable rest spot today playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the 76ers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 9th game in 15 days.  Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris are all questionable to play today, but I like the Spurs no matter who suits up for the 76ers.  Bet the Spurs Sunday.

20* Alabama/UConn Final 4 No-Brainer on UConn -11

The UConn Huskies are 10-0 SU & 10-0 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games dating back to last season.  They have won all 10 games by 13 points or more.  That's why I'm willing to lay the big number with the Huskies in this one.

UConn has no weaknesses.  The Huskies rank 1st in adjusted offense and 4th in adjusted defense.  They have held seven of their last eight opponents to 60 points or fewer, including five consecutive opponents to 58 points or fewer.  Illinois went 0-for-19 on shots that were contested by Donovan Klingan last game.  Illinois managed just 52 points for the game after coming into the game ranked No. 1 in adjusted offense.  It will be a similar fate for Alabama here, which isn't going to shoot nearly as well as it did against Clemson last game.

Alabama has been playing a little better defense in the NCAA Tournament, but they have still allowed an average of 81.5 points per game.  UConn is going to get whatever it wants offensively.  Klingan is going to dominate the paint on both sides of the court as the Crimson Tide have no answer for him.  And the crazy part about UConn's dominance in this tournament is that they have shot poorly from 3-point range, but it hasn't matter.  They are probably due for some positive 3-point shooting regression at the very least.

Alabama is due some negative shooting regression.  The Crimson Tide were on fire in the 2H from 3 against both Clemson and UNC in their last two games.  UConn has the length on the wing to contest more of their shots, and Alabama isn't going to be able to get anything at the rim against Klingan.  Their suspect defense will get exposed as well, and UConn will control the tempo ranking 315th in adjusted tempo, plus they do not allow anything in transition, which is something Alabama relies on.  This is a terrible matchup for the Crimson Tide on all fronts.  Bet UConn Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +11.5

The San Antonio Spurs have quietly gone 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They upset the Suns at home, the Jazz on the road and the Knicks at home.  They also only lost by 4 as 10.5-point home dogs to the Warriors, and by 5 as 16-point road dogs to the Nuggets.  This team is grossly undervalued right now.

The New Orleans Pelicans are grossly overvalued.  They have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall losing by 12 to Boston, by 13 to Phoenix and by 9 to Orlando all at home.  They are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall as well.  They have not played well without Ingram and Alvarado, and now Zion Williamson is questionable with a finger injury.  They should not be laying double-digits to the Spurs tonight.  Bet the Spurs Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Rockets +4.5

The Houston Rockets fought hard to get back in the playoff race by winning 11 consecutive games prior to two straight losses to two of the best teams in the West in the Mavericks and Timberwolves.  They trail the Warriors by 3 games for the final play-in spot, and this is their 'last stand' tonight.

I think we get a massive effort from the Rockets, who should not be 4.5-point underdogs to the Warriors tonight.  The Rockets are 26-12 SU & 27-11 ATS at home this season with the best home-court advantage in the NBA from a ATS perspective.

The Warriors are getting too much respect after going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall against a pretty soft schedule.  This is tired Warriors tam playing in their 6th different city in 10 days.  They know they can afford a loss to the Rockets and won't be fully dialed in, especially with a road game on deck against Dallas tomorrow that might have Kerr limit his starters' minutes as well.

Houston is 7-0 ATS after winning six or seven of its last eight games this season.  The Rockets are 16-7 ATS when revenging a same-season loss this season.  Houston is 9-1 ATS in home games against teams that average 7 or fewer steals per game this season.  Bet the Rockets Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Miami Heat -2.5

The Miami Heat are in playoff mode right now and a dangerous team when that's the case.  They are also as healthy as they have been in a long time.  The Heat currently sit in 6th place in the East just percentage points ahead of the 7th place Pacers.  They desperately want to avoid the play-in round at all costs.

The Heat have been playing with a sense of urgency in their last three games beating the Blazers by 60 at home, the Wizards by 12 on the road and the Knicks by 10 at home.  They are fresh and ready to go as they will be playing just their 4th game in 9 days.

The 76ers are getting too much respect as short road underdogs here.  They are coming off two consecutive victories against short-handed teams in the Raptors and Thunder which ended a 3-game skid.  Joel Embiid just returned from injury last game but is on a minutes limit and is questionable tonight.  The 76ers are still without De'Anthony Melton, and their next two best players in Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey are questionable tonight.  

I like the Heat regardless of who plays for the 76ers as this line should be higher than -2.5 even if the 76ers get good injury news.  But it's going to close a lot higher if they get poor injury news.  Bet the Heat Thursday.

15* Thunder/Celtics ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City +9

The Oklahoma City Thunder have a lot to play for right now.  They trail the Nuggets by just 0.5 games for 1st place in the West.  I suspect they decided to rest their two best players in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams last night against the 76ers to save them for this game against Boston tonight.  There's a good chance they get one or both back, especially SGA.

Either way, I like the Thunder to be competitive tonight against a Boston Celtics team that has absolutely nothing to play for.  The Celtics have locked up the No. 1 seed in the East and are playing like it.  They have gone 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall with two outright losses to the Hawks as 16.5-point favorites and 10.5-point favorites.  Asking the Celtics to win this game by double-digits to beat us when they have nothing to play for is asking too much.

Boston is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 home games when revenging a road loss.  Bet the Thunder Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +12.5

The Washington Wizards have quietly gone 4-3 SU & 4-2-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and have not packed it in.  They have outright upset wins over the Kings as 11-point dogs, the Bulls as 12.5-point road dogs and the Bucks as 13-point dogs during this stretch.

Both the Lakers and Wizards will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight, but the advantage goes to the Wizards getting to stay at home after playing at home last night, while the Lakers have to travel after winning in Toronto.  There's a chance the Wizards get both Kyle Kuzma and Richaun Holmes back from injury after both sat out last night as well.

The Wizards want revenge from a 134-131 (OT) loss as 9.5-point dogs at Los Angeles on February 29th.  The Wizards are actually 3-4 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Lakers with all four losses coming by 13 points or fewer.  

The Lakers are 3-12 ATS off a road win this season.  Bet the Wizards Wednesday.

15* Mavs/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Dallas +1

The Dallas Mavericks are playing better than anyone in the NBA right now.  They are 11-1 SU & 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall with their lone loss coming at OKC as 10.5-point dogs without Luka Doncic.  They are almost fully healthy right now and playing their best basketball of the season.

What would surprise most people is that the Mavericks rank 4th in the NBA in defensive rating during this 11-1 run.  They have allowed 107 or fewer points in 10 of those 12 games.  Their trades for PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford are really paying dividends, and Doncic and Irving have great chemistry offensively.

The Warriors have won four in a row against suspect competition.  Now they take a big step up in class here against the Mavericks and are in a terrible spot.  The Warriors return home from a 5-game road trip, and I love fading teams returning home from extended trips because there are distractions to deal with back at home.  The Warriors are a tired team playing in their 6th different city in 10 days.

Golden State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days.  Dallas is 25-12 ATS in road games this season.  Bet the Mavericks Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Indiana Pacers -12

The Brooklyn Nets are just 4-9 SU & 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall and have fallen out of the playoff race.  They are coming off a 116-104 home loss to the Los Angeles Lakers last night and will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Pacers tonight.

The Pacers have a lot to play for right now and will not be taking the Nets lightly as a result.  They sit in 6th place in the East but just 0.5 games ahead of the Heat for the first play-in spot.  They don't want to have to go into the play-in.

The Pacers are 7-4 SU & 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games overall with all seven wins coming by double-digits.  They are fresh and ready to go after having the last two days off since blasting the Lakers by 19 at home.  These rest and motivational advantages are the reasons I'm willing to lay this big of a number with the Pacers tonight.

Brooklyn is 1-10 ATS in road games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season.  Indiana is 26-12 ATS in its last 38 games when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days.  The Pacers are 19-4 ATS against teams that average 7 or fewer steals per game this season.  They beat the Nets 121-100 in their lone meeting this season on March 16th.  It will be more of the same tonight.  Bet the Pacers Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic -15.5

The Orlando Magic crush bad teams like the Portland Trail Blazers.  They have gone 24-7 ATS as favorites this season including 9-1 ATS against a bad team that wins 25-40% of their games this season.  They are also 24-5 ATS against teams with a losing record this season.

The Magic have a lot to play for right now trying to fend off the Miami Heat for the Southeast Division Title.  They lead the Heat by two games for the title, meaning they are only two games ahead of the final play-in team as well.  They just crushed the Grizzlies by 30 last game at home, and I expect a similar result against the hapless Blazers tonight.

The Blazers are 0-9 SU in their last nine games overall with six losses by 12 points or more.  They have lost their last three games by 18 at Houston, by 14 at Atlanta and by 60 at Miami.  They have a G League lineup right now playing without their three best players in Malcolm Brogdon, Jerami Grant and Anfernee Simons.  They are just ready for this season to be over.

Orlando is 8-0 ATS after failing to cover three of its last four ATS this season.  Portland is 0-10 ATS after scoring 95 points or less this season.  Bet the Magic Monday.

20* NC State/Duke Elite 8 No-Brainer on NC State +6.5

What more does NC State have to do to get some respect?  The Wolfpack are 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with their two non-covers both coming by 0.5 points.  They beat UNC and Duke in the ACC Tournament, and they beat Marquette outright as 7.5-point dogs in the Sweet 16.

Now the Wolfpack come back as 6.5-point dogs to a Duke team that they just beat in the ACC Tournament.  They have had a big change in philosophy and have the perfect lineup right now.  The Wolfpack feel like they can't lose at this point and a brimming with confidence.

Duke got the lucky break of Houston's best player in Jamal Shead going out with an ankle injury in the 1H when the Cougars were dominating.  It changed the entire game and Duke still had to sneak out a 54-51 victory without Shead.  They won't be so fortunate against NC State this time around.

NC State played the early game against Marquette on Friday while Duke played the late game against Houston.  I don't think that extra rest and preparation for the Wolfpack is being factored into this line enough.  It almost never is in these tournament scenarios, and it's one of the real edges we have on the books.  

Duke was in a war late with Houston Friday night and now has to come back and play a 5:05 EST start time on Sunday.  The Blue Devils lack depth as it is and won't have much left in the tank for NC State.  The Wolfpack controlled their game with Marquette from start to finish and didn't have to exert a ton of effort as a result.  They will actually be the fresher, more prepared team for this one.

NC State is 17-3 ATS in its last 20 games as a neutral court underdog of 6.5 to 12 points.  The Wolfpack are 7-1 ATS as neutral court dogs or PK this season.  NC State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games against good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game.  Bet NC State Sunday.

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Clemson +3.5

The Clemson Tigers are capable of beating anyone in the country.  They have road wins over Alabama and North Carolina this season and should have beaten Duke in a 1-point loss with a weak foul call by the refs just before the buzzer handed the Blue Devils the win.

The Tigers are showing what they are capable of in the NCAA Tournament.  New Mexico was a popular pick to make a run, and the Tigers mopped the floor with the Lobos in a 77-56 win as 2-point dogs.  They controlled the game basically the entire way against Baylor in a 72-64 win as 4.5-point dogs.  And they once again controlled the game the entire way in a 77-72 win over Arizona as 7-point dogs.

I think Clemson's versatility offensively will give Alabama trouble as well.  Both big men PJ Hall (18.4 PPG, 6.5 RPG) and Ian Schieffelin (9.9 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 48.9% 3-pointers) can shoot it from outside, Chase Hunter (12.9 PPG) has been one of the best guards in the tournament, and Joseph Girard (15.0 PPG) is a 41% 3-pointer shooter.

As stated before, Clemson already won on the road at Alabama 85-77 as 8.5-point underdogs in their first meeting this season on November 28th.  Hall had 21 points and 8 rebounds, Girard 16 points, Hunter 15 points and Schieffelin 9 points and 14 rebounds.  It will be more of the same in the rematch.

The Tigers have the rest advantage after playing the first game on Thursday night and had the luxury of resting and scouting Alabama in the late game.  I always think that's a bigger advantage than what gets factored in as the team that finished first and plays two days later gets more rest and preparation.  

Plus, Alabama just lost sharpshooter Latrell Wrightsell Jr. (9.0 PPG, 44.3% 3-pointers) to a head injury, and now Nick Pringle (6.7 PPG, 5.1 RPG) suffered a leg injury against UNC and was noticeably limping.  The Crimson Tide's lack of depth will catch up to them here.  They are running on fumes after their comeback win over North Carolina from double-digits down in the 2H, especially with the crazy pace they play with.

Clemson is 9-1 ATS as an underdog this season.  Alabama is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games off a win by 6 points or less.  Bet Clemson Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Pelicans +6.5

The Boston Celtics have nothing to play for for the rest of the regular season.  They are locked in to the No. 1 seed in the East, so they are going to be lacking motivation the rest of the way.  That gives us a great opportunity to fade them because they are going to continue to be priced as the best team in the league.

The Celtics probably are the best team in the league when healthy and motivated, but neither is the case right now.  That explains how they lost two consecutive games outright to the Hawks as 16.5-point favorites and 10.5-point favorites in their last two games coming in.  Now they are once again laying too many points as 6.5-point favorites at New Orleans.

The Pelicans are 10-3 SU & 8-4-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They are motivated right now to avoid the play-in round as they are currently the 5th seed only one game back of the Clippers for the 4th seed, but also only 2.5 games ahead of the Suns for the 7th seed and the play-in.  They need wins right now while the Celtics do not.

New Orleans is a perfect 8-0 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents this season and winning by 18.1 points per game.  Bet the Pelicans Saturday.

20* Duke/Houston Sweet 16 No-Brainer on Houston -3.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Houston Cougars after needing OT to beat Texas A&M.  That's just a team they do not match up great against as they only beat the Aggies by 4 on a neutral earlier this season.  It's also a very underrated Texas A&M team that was playing its best basketball of the season down the stretch and knocked off several other SEC powerhouses this season.

Keep in mind Houston led by double-digits in the final two minutes before a crazy comeback by the Aggies as well.  I think getting battle-tested in that game will benefit the Cougars moving forward.  Four starters fouled out, and a walk on had to ice the game from the FT line in OT.  That kind of win will only make them stronger moving forward when they get in this position again.

This will essentially be a home game for Houston being played in Dallas, TX, and Houston crushed everyone at home this season going 17-0 with nobody staying within 8 points or them.  I don't think that home-court advantage is being factored into this line enough.  They did not get the benefit of the whistle against Texas A&M, but they will likely get that benefit here with a rowdy Cougar crowd.

But this is more of a fade of Duke than anything.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Blue Devils after an easy route to the Sweet 16 blowing out both Vermont and James Madison.  This is a very soft Duke team, and that will get exposed against one of the most physical teams in the country in Houston.  I also don't expect the Blue Devils to shoot as well as they have thus far as McCain opened the James Madison game 6-of-6 from 3.

Now the Blue Devils must go up against the Cougars, who rank 2nd in adjusted defense behind only Iowa State.  The Blue Devils were already without Caleb Foster (7.7 PPG) heading into the NCAA Tournament, and now Jeremy Roach (14.3 PPG, 44.2% 3-pointers) suffered a finger injury against James Madison that leaves him questionable and far from 100% if he plays.  We are getting the Cougars at a discount in the Sweet 16 and we'll take advantage.  Bet Houston Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Houston Rockets -7

The Houston Rockets have won 10 consecutive games and have gone 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Six of their last seven wins have come by double-digits, so they aren't even letting teams hang around.  Don't look now but the Rockets sit just one game behind the Warriors for the final play-in spot in the West.  They have been motivated to get that spot and are playing like it.

The Rockets should be laying more than 7 points to the hapless Utah Jazz.  The Jazz are 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall, and 3-18 SU & 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games overall dating back further.  The problem for the Jazz is that they have been without their top two scorers in Jordan Clarkson and Lauri Markkanen for the majority of their last 21 games.  Clarkson remains out, and Markkanen is questionable.  They lost outright at home to the lowly Spurs even with Markkanen in the lineup last time out.

The Rockets beat the Jazz 147-119 as 11-point home favorites on March 23rd less than a week ago.  It will be more of the same in the rematch.  Houston is 13-1 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season.  The Rockets are 13-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Bet the Rockets Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota Timberwolves +7

The Minnesota Timberwolves continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers as 7-point underdogs to the Denver Nuggets tonight.  The Timberwolves are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone loss coming by 3 points at home to the Nuggets.

But that was a terrible spot for the Timberwolves playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after winning a close game in Utah the previous night.  They were out of gas and still put up a valiant effort against a Nuggets team that came into that game with a day off prior.  The Nuggets had a huge rest advantage.

Now the Timberwolves are fresh playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and will be highly motivated for a win over the Nuggets, who they trail by 0.5 games for 1st place in the West.  The Nuggets were upset as identical 7-point home favorites against the Suns last time out and haven't had consecutive days off since March 3-4.  Jamal Murray is questionable to play tonight after missing the last three games, and Nikola Jokic is battling through a back injury.

Minnesota is a perfect 9-0 ATS when revenging a home loss this season.  I love this Timberwolves team because they rank 1st in defensive rating and bring it on that end every night.  They also clearly have a ton of resiliency.  Bet the Timberwolves Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +12.5

The Charlotte Hornets showed some life in a 118-111 upset win as 10-point home dogs to the Cleveland Cavaliers last time out.  This is a pretty rested team as the Hornets will be playing just their 4th game in 10 days tonight.  They will get up for the Golden State Warriors tonight and give them a run for their money.

The Warriors are getting too much respect off two consecutive road wins at Miami and Orlando.  The Warriors are a tired team right now playing their 4th consecutive road game in 6 days.  Jonathan Kuminga is questionable to play tonight, and I question how much the Warriors have left in the tank for the Hornets in this one.

The Hornets have played a road-heavy schedule of late with 13 of their last 18 games on the highway.  They have been much more competitive at home.  In fact, the Hornets haven't lost any of their last 10 home games by more than 12 points.  That makes for a perfect 10-0 system backing Charlotte pertaining to this 12.5-point spread.  Bet the Hornets Friday.

25* Sweet 16 GAME OF THE YEAR on North Carolina -4

The North Carolina Tar Heels are the most disrespected No. 1 seed in the tournament.  Hubert Davis is also one of the most disrespected head coaches in the country as he is now 8-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament at North Carolina.  The Tar Heels are 10-1 SU & 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games overall with a pair of wins over Duke both home and away this season.  They just crushed Michigan State 85-69 as 4-point favorites in the Round of 32.  Now they are only 4-point favorites against Alabama in the Sweet 16.

The Tar Heels have no weaknesses.  They have two stud guards in RJ Davis (21.3 PPG, 41.1% 3-pointers) and Elliot Cadeau (7.3 PPG, 4.1 APG) who can both get to the rim whenever they want.  They have two stud big men in Armando Bacot (14.4 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 1.5 BPG) and Harrison Ingram (12.2 PPG, 8.8 RPG) and a sharp shooter in Cormac Ryan (11.3 PPG).

But as much as I love North Carolina, this is more of a fade of Alabama than anything.  The Crimson Tide had an easy path to get to the Sweet 16 beating College of Charleston 109-96 and Grand Canyon 72-61.  Both wins come with asterisks because both of those opponents shot very poorly, and Grand Canyon tried to beat them with 1-on-1 ball.

Charleston started the game 1-of-17 from 3-point range, while Grand Canyon shot 2-of-20 from 3 for the game.  The Antelopes also shot just 23-of-37 (62.2%) from the FT line.  The Crimson Tide won't be able to benefit from those poor shooting numbers against a great shooting team in UNC.  This is still the worst defensive team left in the tournament and UNC will expose those holes.  

Plus, Latrell Wrightsell Jr. (9.0 PPG, 44.3% 3-pointers) has been battling concussion issues all season and just suffered another one that forced him from the Grand Canyon game.  He is a great shooter and their best perimeter defender.  I have a hard time believing he will be anywhere near 100% for this one if he plays, and if he does there is a high likelihood he gets knocked out again.  I like UNC to roll either way.  Bet North Carolina Thursday.

15* SDSU/UConn Sweet 16 ANNIHILATOR on UConn -11

The UConn Huskies are 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS over the past two NCAA Tournament and covering by an average of 13 points per game.  All eight wins have come by 13 points or more, so I'm not worried about laying this 11-point spread against the San Diego State Aztecs in the Sweet 16.

This was a terrible matchup for SDSU in the Championship Game last year and that fact remains this year.  UConn beat SDSU 76-59 to capture the title last year as 7-point favorites.  No question the Aztecs want revenge, but they have a lot working against them heading into this one.

For starters, this is a tough travel spot for the Aztecs, who have to travel clear across country to Boston to face what is going to be a home-heavy crowd for the Huskies.  It's just a little over an hour from campus.  This is one of the earliest games of the Sweet 16 with tip set for 7:40 EST Thursday night.  The Aztecs didn't get home until early Monday morning after facing Yale in Spokane Sunday night.  They will have hardly any time to prepare for UConn with all this travel.

Teams that have had success against UConn this season have lit it up from 3 like Creighton did in Omaha.  The Huskies have gone 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS since that humbling defeat, and Bobby Hurley is keeping that chip on their shoulder saying that the NCAA Tournament committee blatantly gave them they most difficult region, which is true.

San Diego State runs its offense through Jaedon LeDee who is a monster inside.  However, he lacks height and will struggle to score against UConn's bigs inside.  The Huskies rank 3rd in effective FG percentage defense and 4th in 2-point percentage allowed.  They just don't allow anything at the rim.  San Diego State is going to have to try to win this game from the 3-point line, where they are terrible ranking 283rd in the country in 3-point percentage at 31.8% on the season.  Terrible matchup for them and terrible travel spot.  Bet UConn Thursday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Houston Rockets +7

The Houston Rockets have won nine consecutive games and have gone 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Each of their last six wins have come by double-digits, so they aren't even letting teams hang around.  Don't look now but the Rockets sit just one game behind the Warriors for the final play-in spot in the West.  They have been motivated to get that spot and are playing like it.

The Rockets should not be catching 7 points tonight against the Oklahoma City Thunder, who are in a terrible spot.  The Thunder will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 119-112 win at New Orleans last night.  All five starters played at least 30 minutes for the Thunder last night, and I question how much they'll have left in the tank for the Rockets tonight.

Houston is 12-1 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season.  The Rockets are 7-0 ATS vs. teams that force 15 or more turnovers per game.  The Rockets also get Jabari Smith (13.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG) back from a one-game suspension tonight.  Bet the Rockets Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Memphis Grizzlies +4.5

This is a terrible spot for the Los Angeles Lakers tonight.  They are coming off a shocking upset win at 9.5-point road dogs at Milwaukee last night in double-OT.  Davis played 52 minutes, Russell 50 and Reaves 48 last night.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Memphis Grizzlies tonight, and don't be surprised if they rest some guys.

I like the Grizzlies when they have both Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane healthy, which is the case for tonight.  The Grizzlies are also the kind of team that continues to show up every night despite their current standing.  They would love nothing more than to upset the Lakers, who are in a huge letdown spot off the win over the Bucks.

The Lakers are 0-7 ATS as a road favorite of 6 points or less this season.  Los Angeles is 1-11 ATS off a road win this season.  This will be just the 2nd game in 5 days for Memphis tonight so they will be the much fresher team.  Bet the Grizzlies Wednesday.

15* Clippers/76ers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -5.5

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.  They are coming off two straight upset home losses to the 76ers and Pacers.  Now they get their shot at quick revenge against the 76ers on the road this time around.  They are fully healthy and primed for a big effort.  Ty Lue called out his team for being soft, and I expect the Clippers to respond with a blowout win tonight.

The 76ers are in a tough spot here returning home from a 4-game road trip after losing by 12 at Sacramento on the 2nd of a back-to-back after beating the Clippers.  They will be playing their 15th game in 27 days and haven't had consecutive days off since February.  They remain without Embiid and Melton and now Kelly Oubre Jr. is questionable tonight.  They just don't have much talent outside Tyrese Maxey right now.

The Clippers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games after failing to cover four of their last five games.  Los Angeles is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games off two consecutive losses as a home favorite.  Bet the Clippers Wednesday.

15* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on Dallas Mavericks -8.5

The Dallas Mavericks are highly motivated for wins right now and playing like it.  They sit in 8th place in the West and currently in the play-in round, but just 0.5 games behind the Phoenix Suns for 6th place.  They have a lot to play for right now and will not be taking the Utah Jazz lightly.

I love the spot for the Mavericks as they have had the last three days off and will be fresh and ready to go.  They beat the Jazz 113-97 as 13.5-point home favorites four days ago to improve to 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Their lone loss came by 7 at OKC as 10.5-point dogs without both Doncic and Irving.  The Mavericks are basically fully healthy right now.

The Jazz are an absolute mess right now.  They are 3-16 SU & 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  They have lost five consecutive games coming in all by double-digits, and each of their last seven losses have come by 10 points or more.  They have been playing without their top two scorers in Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson for much of this stretch and will likely rest both again tonight.  Kris Dunn has been suspended for this game as well.

Dallas is 15-4 ATS as a road favorite this season.  The Mavericks are 10-2 ATS off a win by 15 points or more this season.  Bet the Mavericks Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Houston Rockets -12

The Houston Rockets have won eight consecutive games and have gone 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Each of their last five wins have come by double-digits, so they aren't even letting teams hang around.  The short-handed Portland Trail Blazers won't be hanging around tonight, either.

Don't look now but the Rockets sit just one game behind the Warriors for the final play-in spot in the West.  They have been motivated to get that spot and are playing like it.  That's why I know they aren't going to take the Blazers lightly tonight, which is key when laying these big numbers.

The Blazers have lost six consecutive games coming in.  They are without Malcolm Brogdon and Jerami Grant tonight, with Anfernee Simons, DeAndre Ayton and Matisse Thybulle questionable to play as well.  I wouldn't be surprised if all of them sit given Portland's current standing.

Houston is 11-1 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season.  The Rockets are 25-11 SU & 26-10 ATS in all home games this season.  Bet the Rockets Monday.

20* Texas A&M/Houston TNT No-Brainer on Texas A&M +10.5

Texas A&M is playing its best basketball of the season here down the stretch just to get into the NCAA Tournament.  The Aggies are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with wins over fellow NCAA Tournament teams in Mississippi State, Kentucky and Nebraska.  They ran out of gas in their 5-point loss to Florida in their 3rd game in 3 days in the SEC Tournament.

No underdog in this NCAA Tournament has a higher ceiling than Texas A&M.  The Aggies have wins over Iowa State, Florida, Tennessee and Kentucky this season.  They even took Houston to the wire already once in non-conference play earlier this season, losing 70-66 as 7-point dogs on a neutral.  Houston even shot 11-of-27 (40.7%) from 3 in that game while the Aggies only shot 38.2% as a team, yet it was only a 4-point margin.  

I think the Aggies can stay within 10.5-points in the rematch.  Asking the Cougars to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  They just faced one of the worst teams in the tournament in Longwood and won easily.  They they lost by 28 to Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship Game, and injuries and lack of depth is a problem for them.  

Texas A&M is elite defensively and will force Houston into some scoring droughts that they are known for.  The Aggies are the No. 1 offensive rebounding team in the country and can hang with the Cougars on the boards and in the physicality department.  The Aggies also potentially have the best player on the court in Wade Taylor IV, who scored 25 points in the 98-83 win over Nebraska.  But he isn't their only weapon as both Obaseki (22) and Radford (20) topped 20 as well.

Buzz Williams is 21-7 ATS in March games as the coach of Texas A&M.  Houston is 1-7 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season.  Bet Texas A&M Sunday.

20* James Madison/Duke CBS No-Brainer on James Madison +7.5

James Madison is one of the best teams in the country that nobody knows about.  The Dukes are 32-3 this season with their three losses coming to Appalachian State (twice) and Southern Miss.  Keep in mind Appalachian State beat Auburn earlier this season.  The upset Michigan State on the road in non-conference, and they just upset Wisconsin 72-61 as 5.5-point dogs last round to prove they belong.  They dominated that game for all 40 minutes and were never in jeopardy of losing.

Duke had a much easier opponent in the opener with a 64-47 win over a bad Vermont team as 12.5-point favorites.  The Blue Devils lost to UNC twice this season, lost at Wake Forest and lost to NC State in the ACC Tournament.  I think the ACC is just way down this season, so it's going to be hard to trust any ACC team outside North Carolina moving forward.  The Blue Devils are on serious upset alert here.

James Madison is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 non-conference games.  The Dukes are 8-2 ATS against a team with a winning record this season.  James Madison is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% or better.  Bet James Madison Sunday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans -12

The New Orleans Pelicans are rolling right now going 8-2 SU & 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall and coming off a 23-point road win at Miami.  Six of those eight wins have come by 13 points or more.  You can chalk up another today against the hapless Detroit Pistons.

The Pistons are just going through the motions right now going 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  Four of the five losses have come by 13 points or more, including their last three by 27 at home to Boston, by 19 at home to Indiana and by 25 at Boston.

Not only are the Pistons going through the motions right now, but injuries are really starting to pile up as well.  They are without Ausar Thompson, Quentin Grimes, Simone Fontechio, Isaiah Stewart and Stanley Umude.  Their biggest bright spot this season has been double-double machine Jalen Duren, and now he is questionable with a back injury.

The Pelicans are 31-15 ATS in their last 46 games as road favorites of 6.5 to 12 points.  The Pistons are 14-30 ATS in their last 44 non-conference home games.  Bet the Pelicans Sunday.

20* Oregon/Creighton TBS Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon +5.5

The Oregon Ducks are the one NCAA Tournament team that stole a bid by winning their conference tournament that I trust to make a deep run.  The Ducks have won five consecutive games including wins over Arizona, Colorado and South Carolina in their last three.  They have all the momentum right now and are playing their best basketball of the season.

A big reason I trust the Ducks is head coach Dana Altman, who is a proven winner in the NCAA Tournament.  Altman is 17-5 ATS in NCAA Tournament games as the coach of Oregon, including a perfect 7-0 ATS when listed as a 9 seed or higher.  The Ducks may also have the two best players ont he floor in C N'Faly Dante (16.5 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 1.9 BPG) and G Jermaine Couisnard (16.1 PPG), who had 40 points against South Carolina last game.  Both of these guys have taken their games to the next level down the stretch.

Creighton was in a dog fight with lowly Akron until late in the 2H last game.  They won 77-60 despite shooting 56.5% from the field and Akron only shooting 37.9%.  The Zips shot 6-of-27 (22%) from 3 as well, which is uncharacteristic for them, while the Bluejays shot 10-of-17 (59%) from 3.  They won't have those kinds of shooting numbers in their favor here when they take a big step up in class against surging Ducks.  Bet Oregon Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Orlando Magic -2.5

The Orlando Magic are the best covering team in the NBA and continue to get disrespected from oddsmakers.  The Magic are 42-28 SU & 45-23-2 ATS this season, including 25-8 SU & 24-9 ATS at home.  They have gone 13-3 SU & 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall with five striaght wins and covers all by 8 points or more.

The Sacramento Kings are coming off a 109-102 road loss to the short-handed Washington Wizards.  They also needed OT to beat Memphis at home and were upset by New York at home during a 1-3 ATS stretch in their last four.  They are getting too much respect here as only 2.5-point road dogs to the Magic with the way they are playing right now.  Bet the Magic Saturday.

20* Oakland/NC State TBS No-Brainer on Oakland +6.5

NC State just won five games in five days to win the ACC Tournament.  Four of the five games were decided by single-digits, so it took everything they had and then some.  I question how much the Wolfpack have left in the tank for the NCAA Tournament.

They got through Texas Tech on pure adrenaline, plus the fact that the Red Raiders play zero defense.  This is the game I think all these games will take their toll as the Wolfpack will now be playing their 2nd game in 3 days.  They are going to have to think because Oakland runs a great zone defense, and it's a very tough scheme to prepare for in one day.  I don't think NC State will be ready for it.

I like that the Golden Grizzlies acted like they expected to beat Kentucky after the game.  They feel like they belong, and I expect them to pull the outright upset here Saturday over the Wolfpack to advance to the Sweet 16.  They will have the best player on the floor in F Trey Townsend (16.9 PPG, 7.9 RPG), and he is surrounded by two great shooters in Blake Lampman (12.8 PPG, 36.5% 3-pointers) and Jack Gohike (12.8 PPG, 37.8% 3-pointers), who hit 10 3's himself to lead the upset of Kentucky.

The win over Kentucky was no fluke as Oakland went 2-3 SU & 5-0 ATS against Ohio State, Illinois, Drake, Xavier and Kentucky this season taking all five of those teams to the wire despite playing all five on the road.  The Golden Grizzlies are 6-0 ATS in their last six games off an upset win as a road underdog.  Bet Oakland Saturday.

15* Washington State/Iowa State TNT ANNIHILATOR on Iowa State -6.5

The Iowa State Cyclones have won the Big 12 Tournament in 5 of the last 11 years.  A big reason they have so much success in the Big 12 Tournament is because it is known as 'Hilton South' with the huge following they get from fans with only a 3.5-hour drive to Kansas City.  Well, now they are playing in Omaha, which is only a 2-hour drive from their campus.  They have a massive home-court advantage once again for the first two rounds of this tournament.

The Cyclones are playing their best basketball of the season in these tournaments.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS since the start of the Big 12 Tournament, beating Kansas State by 19 as 8-point favorites, Baylor by 14 as 2-point favorites and Houston by 28 as 5-point dogs.  They opened with a 17-point win over South Dakota State on Thursday as 15-point favorites.  They were up 25 in the final four minutes before calling off the dogs, so that 17-point win wasn't as indicative of how dominant the win was.  They won't be calling off the dogs against Washington State.

Washington State thrives when they play a soft team like Drake and Arizona that aren't very physical.  That's why they are able to upset Arizona twice and get by Drake last game with an 8-point comeback in the final seven minutes.  They won't have that same luxury against Iowa State, which will match and exceed their physicality.  The Cyclones rank 2nd in the entire country in adjusted defense, and they are a much better offensive team than the Cougars, who lack shooting.  They won't be able to keep up offensively in this one.

Iowa State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games against a good team that wins 60-80% of their games this season.  The Cyclones are a combined 25-0 SU in home games, Big 12 Tournament games and NCAA Tournament games that have been played close to home this season.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

25* Round of 32 GAME OF THE YEAR on North Carolina -3.5

This will feel like a home game for the North Carolina Tar Heels being played in Charlotte.  That's not being factored into this line enough.  The Tar Heels are 9-1 SU & 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games overaall with a pair of wins over Duke both home and away this season.

The Tar Heels have no weaknesses.  They have two stud guards in RJ Davis (21.4 PPG) and Elliot Cadeau (7.3 PPG, 4.1 APG) who can both get to the rim whenever they want.  They have two stud big men in Armando Bacot (14.3 PPG, 10.3 RPG, 1.5 BPG) and Harrison Ingram (12.1 PPG, 8.9 RPG) and a sharp shooter in Cormac Ryan (11.3 PPG).

Michigan State was fortunate to get a bid into the NCAA Tournament.  The Spartans went 3-5 SU in their final eight games this season including home losses to Iowa and Ohio State.   They are prone to scoring droughts and are not the best shooting team.  They only make 12 FT per game and struggle to get to the rim as well.  Any droughts in this one and they are going to get run out of the building.

North Carolina is 7-0 ATS in its last seven NCAA Tournament games.  This line should at least be -6 in favor of the Tar Heels.  Bet North Carolina Saturday.

20* Gonzaga/Kansas CBS No-Brainer on Gonzaga -3.5

Gonzaga made easy work of an upstart McNeese State team 86-65 and should still be fresh as a result.  The Bulldogs improved to 10-1 SU & 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games overall playing their best basketball of the season here down the stretch.  They upset both Kentucky and St. Mary's on the road during this stretch.

Kansas shot 60.3% from the field and still needed a blown foul call from the refs to put away a bad Samford team 93-89 as 7.5-point favorites in the opener.  It continued a trend of poor play to close the season as the Jayhawks are now 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.

Head coach Bill Self announced that Kevin McCullar Jr. will be out for the NCAA Tournament prior to it.  That leaves the Jayhawks very short-handed and this is a tough spot for them having to play their 2nd game in 3 days after needing to go to the wire to beat Samford on Thursday.  They went with basically a 6-man rotation against Samford and had four starters play anywhere from 35 to 39 minutes apiece.  They will wear down in the 2H as the Bulldogs pull away after intermission.

This will feel like a home game for the Bulldogs with it being played out West in Salt Lake City.  Kansas is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road/neutral games against good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game.  The Jayhawks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after scoring 85 points or more.  Bet Gonzaga Saturday.

15* CBB Friday BLOWOUT on TCU -3

Utah State is 1-19 SU in its last 20 NCAA Tournament Games.  The Aggies had a successful regular season winning the MWC regular season title.  But they are reeling coming into the Big Dance, going 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  They needed OT to beat Fresno State twice, only beat Air Force by 12 as 17.5-point home favorites, and lost by 16 to San Diego State in the MWC Tournament.

TCU went 6-4 ATS down the stretch with narrow losses to Texas Tech by 1 and UCF by 2.  They beat Oklahoma in the Big 12 Tournament opener and I just trust this team.  The Big 12 was the toughest conference in the country, so I can see some of these middling Big 12 teams doing well in the NCAA Tournament because they are so battle-tested.

Utah State suffered 5 of its 6 losses away from home this season including losses by 13 at New Mexico, by 14 at San Diego State and by 20 at Colorado State.  They also lost by 16 to SDSU on a neutral and by 14 at home to Nevada.  Utah State didn't face a single Power 5 team all season.  Their non-conference schedule could not have been much easier, and they beat Santa Clara by 2 and San Francisco by 1 in their two toughest non-conference games.  They also lost at Bradley.  I'd argue TCU will be the best team they have faced all season.

TCU has elite size on the interior that will help them match up well with Great Osobor, who is Utah State's best player.  The Horned Frogs also have great length on the wing to make life difficult on Utah State's overmatched guards, who will be at an athletic disadvantage.  The Horned Frogs are favored for good reason despite being the higher seed.  Utah State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog.  Bet TCU Friday.

20* James Madison/Wisconsin CBS Late-Night BAILOUT on James Madison +4.5

James Madison is one of the best teams in the country that nobody knows about.  The Dukes went 31-3 this season with their three losses coming to Appalachian State (twice) and Southern Miss.  Keep in mind Appalachian State beat Auburn earlier this season.

But what lets me know James Madison can play with Wisconsin is the fact that they went to Michigan State and upset the Spartans in East Lansing.  They won't be scared at all to face a Big Ten opponent like Wisconsin, and I like the fact that this game is being played in Brooklyn, NY so the Badgers likely won't have many fans there.  It's less than a 6 hour drive for James Madison fans and they will have the home-court advantage if anything.

Wisconsin is a tired team after having to play 4 games in 4 days including an OT game against Purdue in the semifinals.  They ran out of gas in the 2H against Illinois in the Championship Game and lost.  I don't think they'll be fully recovered in time for the Round of 64.  James Madison made easy work of its three opponents in the Sun Belt Tournament winning by a combined 42 points and has been off since March 11th.  The Dukes will be the much fresher team for this matchup.

James Madison is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 non-conference games.  The Dukes are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games against a team with a winning record.  I think the Dukes make the Sweet 16, and it starts with an upset win over Wisconsin Friday night.  Bet James Madison Friday.

15* Charleston/Alabama TruTV ANNIHILATOR on Alabama -9.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on Alabama.  The Crimson Tide have gone 3-4 SU & 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.  But they faced an absolutely brutal schedule during this stretch with road losses to Kentucky and Florida (twice) as well as a home loss to Tennessee.  They also beat Arkansas and Florida at home while winning by 14 at Ole Miss.

When you consider that Alabama also face the likes of Ohio State, Clemson, Purdue, Creighton and Arizona in the non-conference, the Crimson Tide grade out as having faced the single-toughest schedule in the entire country.  To say they are battle-tested would be an understatement.  Now they have had a full week off since the loss to Florida in the SEC Tournament to rest.  They will be rejuvenated, and they are a fully healthy right now and a dangerous No. 4 seed.

The Crimson Tide get to take a big step down in class here against Charleston, which isn't as strong as it was a year ago.  The Cougars showed very poorly in non-conference.  They lost three consecutive games on a neutral to Duquesne by 18, Vermont by 9 and Wyoming by 7.  They also lost by 16 at Florida Atlantic.  It's also concerning Charleston needed OT to beat Stony Brook as a 10-point favorite in the CAA Championship Game.  Alabama will be by far the best team they have faced this season.

I love the matchup for the Crimson Tide because they attack the rim or shoot 3-pointers, and the Cougars were the 5th-worst team in the entire country in protecting the rim on close 2-pointers.  Alabama is going to get what it wants inside for 40 minutes.  Both teams love to run as Alabama ranks 11th in adjusted tempo and Charleston ranks 58th.  More possessions favors the better team and the favorite.  Charleston is actually much worse defensively than Alabama as the Cougars rank 175th in adjusted defense, largely because they cannot protect the rim.  

Alabama is 15-8 ATS as a favorite this season.  The Crimson Tide are 25-11 ATS in their last 36 games after failing to cover the spread in four or more consecutive games.  Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Charleston) - off four or more consecutive wins, when seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA Tournament are 70-32 (68.6%) ATS since 1997.    This is a very low spread for a 4/13 matchup and it really shows that we are getting to 'buy low' on the Crimson Tide.  Bet Alabama Friday.

20* NCAA Tournament BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Purdue -26.5

This is more of a fade of Grambling State than anything.  The SWAC ranks 33rd of 33 conferences according to KenPom.  One look at Grambling State's results in non-conference play and it's easy to see why.

In their first 13 games this season, the Tigers went 3-10 SU with their three wins coming against UNT Dallas, Champion Christian and Biblical Studies, who aren't even ranked in KenPom.  The 10 losses were absolutely laughable.  They included blowout losses by 32 to Colorado, by 55 to Iowa State, by 30 to Dayton and by 39 to Florida.

Now Grambling State has to face the best team they have faced yet in No. 1 seed Purdue.  It's also a highly motivated Boilermakers team after losing to Fairleigh Dickinson last year.  They won't take Grambling State lightly, and it's a very tough spot for the Tigers considering they had a 15-point 2H comeback against Montana State on Wednesday and had to go to OT in an 88-81 victory.

Grambling State was able to get to the rim against Montana State and take advantage of the undersized Bobcats in the 2H.  They won't be able to do that against Purdue, which ranks 45th in average height led by mountain Zach Edey inside.  The Boilermakers will force the Tigers to try and shoot over the top of them from 3.  Grambling State averages just five 3-point makes on 15 attempts per game.  It's just not their game, and the matchup is a terrible one for them.

Purdue is 8-2-1 ATS in non-conference games this season.  That includes a 99-67 win over Texas Southern as 32-point favorites, which is a fellow SWAC team and ranked very similarly to Grambling State in KenPom.  Grambling State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games vs. teams that average 40 or more rebounds per game.  This line should be 30 or higher.  Bet Purdue Friday.

25* Round of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR on UAB +7

UAB can beat anyone when they are on their game.  The Blazers went 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their final five games of the season beating Temple by 28 as 6.5-point road favorites, SMU by 4 as 1.5-point road favorites, and then made easy work of Wichita State by 12, USF by 10 and Temple by 16 en route to winning the AAC Tournament.

I think the AAC as a whole is better than it gets credit for which is a big reason why Florida Atlantic didn't run through it like everyone expected.  And UAB showed well in the non-conference, too.  They lost by 2 to Bradley, by 1 to Clemson, upset Maryland and upset Drake.  They can play with San Diego State.

I think San Diego State gets too much respect for making the run to the championship game last year.  They were in dog fights every game and were simply fortunate in close games.  They are the most over-seeded team from the Mountain West getting a No. 5 seed.  The rest of the Mountain West got the shaft, and we'll take advantage here and fade the over-seeded Aztecs.

San Diego State is a tired team after making the MWC Championship Game only to lose to New Mexico.  They needed OT to beat UNLV, and five of their last six games were decided by 8 points or fewer.  I question how much gas they have left in the tank.  I know it won't be enough to put away UAB by 7-plus points, especially since the Aztecs struggle to get easy buckets on offense and are a terrible 3-point shooting team, ranking 307th in 3-point percentage at 31.3%.

UAB is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 road games following a win.  The Blazers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 tournament games.  The Aztecs are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games after playing two consecutive games as favorites.  UAB is 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Blazers are 15-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season.  UAB is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game.  SDSU is 0-7 ATS in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams that make 72% or better this season.

 The Aztecs haven't been nearly as good away from Viejas Arena going just 10-9 SU & 5-14 ATS in all games played away from home.  This is also a sleepy start time for a West coast team with a 1:45 EST which will be like a 10:45 AM body clock game for the Aztecs.  They aren't used to playing this early in the day.  The Blazers are used to playing at this time being in the East.  Bet UAB Friday.

15* NC State/Texas Tech CBS Late-Night BAILOUT on Texas Tech -5

NC State just won five games in five days to win the ACC Tournament.  Four of the five games were decided by single-digits, so it took everything they had and then some.  I question how much the Wolfpack have left in the tank for the NCAA Tournament, plus they get minimal rest having to play on Thursday instead of Friday.

Texas Tech went 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its final five games this season including double-digit wins over Baylor by 10 at BYU by 14.  The lone loss came to Houston, which is to be expected against the conference champs.  I think Texas Tech is an absolute sleeper in the NCAA Tournament and could make a run.

NC State takes a ton of bad shots from the mid range which is why they cannot be trusted.  Texas Tech is a great shooting team ranking 37th in the country in 3-point percentage (36.5%).  NC State ranks 246th defending the 3 allowing 34.8% from distance.  That makes this a great matchup for the Red Raiders, who are a couple notches better than NC State on offense and defense.

Texas Tech is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games against teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game in the 2nd half of the season.  NC State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after a game with 5 or fewer offensive rebounds.  The Wolfpack's run comes to an abrupt end with a blowout loss to the Red Raiders tonight.  Bet Texas Tech Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Houston Rockets -3.5

The Houston Rockets have gone 8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Their only two losses came against two of the best teams in the West in covers in a 5-point loss at Phoenix as 8.5-point dogs and a 6-point loss to the Clippers as 6.5-point dogs.

The Rockets now have a legitimate shot to make the play-in and are fighting hard for it.  They are just 3 games back of the Warriors and 3.5 back of the Lakers for the final two spots.  They are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and will keep their foot on the gas at home tonight against the Chicago Bulls.  The Rockets are 23-11 SU & 24-10 ATS at home this season.

The Bulls are stuck in no-man's land.  They are 4 games behind the 76ers for the 8th seed and 3.5 games ahead of the Hawks for the 9th.  They are going to be in the play-in, and the most likely is they will be the 9th.  They don't have the sense of urgency that the Rockets do right now.  They also have some serious injury questions with Patrick Williams out, and both Coby White and Alex Caruso questionable tonight.  They may take the cautious approach with those two given their position in the standings.

Houston is 12-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Rockets are 9-0 ATS in home games when revenging a same-season loss this season.  Bet the Rockets Thursday.

20* NCAA Tournament DOG OF THE WEEK on McNeese State +6

McNeese State is one of the best teams in the country that nobody knows about.  The Cowboys went 30-3 this season including a 76-65 road win at VCU, an 81-60 road win at UAB and a 87-76 road win at Michigan in the non-conference.  VCU was one win from the Big Dance, UAB made the Big Dance, and Michigan was playing much better back when McNeese State beat them.

Gonzaga has taken a big step back this season.  The Bulldogs did not deserve a No. 5 seed.  They were just a bubble team prior to beating St. Mary's in the regular season finale.  They went on to lose to St. Mary's in the WCC Tournament.  The Bulldogs have a lot of defensive holes and they aren't a great shooting team.

One thing I love about McNeese State is they take care of the basketball and force turnovers.  The Cowboys rank 25th in turnover percentage on offense and 6th in turnover percentage on defense.  They also rank 7th in 3-point shooting, making 39.4% on the season as a team.  They have a lot of big-time transfers for head coach Will Wade, including TCU transfer Shahada Wells (17.8 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 3.0 SPG), who will be the best player on the court.  Bet McNeese State Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday BLOWOUT on Illinois -11.5

Morehead State is a popular underdog pick in the opening round.  That's why this line has been bet down from an opener of 13.5 to 11.5.  But now I think is a great time to go contrarian and back Illinois as a much shorter favorite than they were at the open.

A big reason for the move is because Big Ten teams that won their conference tournament have been upset in the first round the last three years.  Illinois was one of those teams back in 2021.  But they will be made aware of this, and I expect them to avoid the letdown.

Illinois has gone 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS in its last eight games with its lone loss coming to Purdue.  The Fighting Illini have done damage on the road during this stretch upsetting Wisconsin by 8 as 3-point road dogs and topping a desperate Iowa team by 12 as 2-point favorites.  They won all three games in the Big Ten Tournament including covering the last two scoring 98 points on Nebraska and 93 more on Wisconsin.  They rank 2nd in the entire country in adjusted offense and are a tough team to tame.

One quick look at what Morehead State did in non-conference play and it's easy to see why I'm willing to lay the points with Illinois.  The Eagles lost 105-73 at Alabama, 87-57 at Purdue and 74-51 at Penn State.  So there's two Big Ten opponents to compare them to, and I expect another blowout in favor of the Big Ten here.

Illinois is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  The Fighting Illini are 11-3 ATS in road games vs. a team with a winning record this season.  They have done their best work on the highway this season, and they will get plenty of fans traveling to Omaha to watch them crush Morehead State.  Bet Illinois Thursday.

20* Bucks/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Milwaukee +10.5

This line is an overreaction to the fact that the Milwaukee Bucks will be without Giannis tonight.  We saw what they were capable of without him in their last game when they beat Phoenix 140-129.  Ball movement was the key as they had 35 assists on their 51 made FG's including 16 from Lillard and 7 from Middleton, who recently returned from injury and is looking like his former self.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Celtics.  They have won and covered six consecutive games while also going 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  But they have faced a very soft schedule here of late and will be taking a big step up in class here.  Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us even without Giannis is asking too much.  Plus, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday and Sam Hauser are all questionable for Boston tonight, so it's not like they aren't dealing with injuries of their own.

Boston is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 home games when revenging a road loss.  Bet the Bucks Wednesday.

15* Grambling State/Montana State First 4 ANNIHILATOR on Montana State -3.5

This is more of a fade of Grambling State than anything.  The SWAC ranks 33rd of 33 conferences according to KenPom.  One look at Grambling State's results in non-conference play and it's easy to see why.

In their first 13 games this season, the Tigers went 3-10 SU with their three wins coming against UNT Dallas, Champion Christian and Biblical Studies, who aren't even ranked in KenPom.  The 10 losses were absolutely laughable.  They included blowout losses by 32 to Colorado, by 55 to Iowa State, by 30 to Dayton and by 39 to Florida.

Montana State beat California in the non-conference and had narrow losses to good Seattle (by 3), Green Bay (by 1) and Long Beach State (by 6) teams.  The Bobcats were very impressive down the stretch going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their final six games.  

They upset Idaho by 14 as 1-point road dogs, lost in OT at Eastern Washington by 4 as 8.5-point dogs, upset Weber State by 12 as 5-point dogs, upset Weber State again by 9 as 8.5-point dogs, beat Sacramento State by 3 as 5-point favorites and crushed Montana by 15 as 6.5-point dogs.  This team is clearly grossly overvalued here of late with four outright wins as underdogs among those six games.  They make easy work of Grambling State tonight.  Bet Montana State Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +9

The Dallas Mavericks are coming off a 107-105 upset home win over the defending champion Denver Nuggets.  Kyrie Irving hit a buzzer-beater with a left-handed floater in one of the luckiest shots you will ever see as a game-winner.  It's safe to say the Mavericks are now in a massive letdown spot off that huge win.

The San Antonio Spurs have quietly gone 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall and are improving here down the stretch.  That includes upset wins over both the Thunder and Pacers at home, as well as the Warriors on the road.  Asking the Mavericks to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.

Dallas is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games off a close win by 3 points or less.  The Mavericks are 0-8 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season.  Bet the Spurs Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans -7

The New Orleans Pelicans have quietly gone 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and are playing some of their best basketball of the season.  It's easy to see why as they are fully healthy and a dangerous team when that's the case.  They are 5th place in the West and motivated to avoid the play-in.

The Brooklyn Nets are coming off an upset loss to the Spurs and are now just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with losses to the lowly Pistons and Hornets as well.  They clearly aren't too concerned with making the play-in as they trail the Hawks by 4 games now.  Had they gone just 3-3 they'd be two games back.  This is a dead team walking right now.

New Orleans is 7-0 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents this season and outscoring them by 18.8 points per game.  The Pelicans beat the Nets 112-85 in their lone meeting this season.  New Orleans is 30-15 ATS in its last 45 games as a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Indiana Pacers -6.5

Cleveland will be without Donovan Mitchell (27.4 PPG), Evan Mobley (15.6 PPG) and Max Strus (12.2 PPG) tonight.  Not having Mitchell in the lineup here of late has really hampered them offensively as they have averaged just 106.0 points per game in their last eight games.  They have gone just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall and have been consistently overvalued due to these injuries.

The Indiana Pacers sit in 6th place in the East just a half-game ahead of both the Heat and 76ers for the 7th and 8th seeds, which would be the play-in teams.  They desperately want to avoid the play-in and are playing like it.  

They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with blowout wins by 14 at Orlando, by 10 at OKC and by 21 at home over Brooklyn.  The lone loss came in OT to the Bulls on the 2nd of a back-to-back after the upset win at OKC, which was predictable. They are fresh right now playing just their 2nd game in 5 days as well.  Bet the Pacers Monday.

20* Duquesne/VCU Atlantic 10 No-Brainer on Duquesne +2.5

Duquesne has been grossly undervalued since late January.  The Dukes won seven consecutive games and have gone 14-3 SU in their last 17 games overall.  They beat Atlantic 10 favorite Dayton 65-57 and followed it up with a 70-60 win over St. Bonaventure yesterday to prove how good they are and that they belong.  They'll remain playing with a chip on their shoulder today as underdogs to VCU.

VCU has had an easier path to the Championship Game and their games have bene closer than Duquesne.  Also, the Dukes won the lone regular season meeting 69-59 as 5-point road dogs at VCU on March 5th, which is a very tough place to win.  It will be more of the same in the rematch today on a neutral.

Duquesne is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games as a neutral court underdog or PK.  The Dukes are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a good team that wins 60-80% of their games.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Duquesne Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are fighting for the No. 1 seed in the West with a lot to play for right now.  They have gone 11-3 SU in their last 14 games overall with seven wins by 13 points or more and 10 wins by 7 points or more.  I fully expect them to make easy work of the hapless Memphis Grizzlies tonight.

No team has been hit harder by injuries than the Grizzlies and they continue to pile up late in the season.  They have gone just 3-8 SU in their last 11 games overall with three wins coming against the Nets, 76ers and Wizards.  They have been blown out on a regular basis, including a 124-93 loss at OKC on March 10th less than a week ago.  It will be more of the same tonight.  Bet the Thunder Saturday.

20* Marquette/UConn Big East No-Brainer on UConn -8.5

The UConn Huskies are a juggernaut and the best team in the country.  They have gone 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall despite being a public team with everyone knowing how good they are.  The books just haven't been able to set their spreads high enough.

Marquette is without PG Tyler Kolek (15.0 PPG, 7.6 APG, 40% 3-pointers) and cannot compete with UConn without him.  They lost 74-67 as 5-point home underdogs without him, and 81-53 as 7-point road dogs with him.  This will essentially be a home game for the Huskies as their fans take over Madison Square Garden.  Playing their 3rd game in 3 days including one in OT, the Golden Eagles' lack of depth will really get tested today.

UConn is 15-2 ATS in its last 17 neutral court games.  One of those losses came by 2 to Marquette in the Big East Tournament last year, and the Huskies have not forgotten.  They will get their revenge in blowout fashion tonight.  Bet UConn Saturday.

25* CBB UPSET SHOCKER GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +5

The T-Mobile Center in Kansas City is known as Hilton South.  The Iowa State Cyclones always get a great following for the Big 12 Tournament and it's like the same home-court advantage they have when playing in Hilton, and they didn't lose once at home this season.  They made easy work of Kansas State 76-57 in the opener and easy work of Baylor 76-62 yesterday.

Nobody has played Houston tougher than Iowa State.  The Cyclones won 57-53 at home in their first meeting and lost 73-65 to the Cougars on the road in their 2nd meeting.  Nobody else stayed within single-digits of Houston on the road.  But now it will be the Cyclones with the home-court advantage with probably the best following from fans in the entire country for their conference tournament.

Houston is short-handed right now and not a very deep team.  That makes it tougher for them to play 3 games in 3 days.  They are without Joseph Tugler and Ramon Walker, plus J'Wan Roberts is battling a knee injury and questionable for this championship game.  He is quietly their most important player doing all the dirty work down low, and Tugler also provided some of it before he went out.

TJ Otzelberger is 14-2 ATS vs. teams who average 9 or more steals per game as the coach of Iowa State.  The Cyclones are 29-13 ATS in their last 42 conference tournament games.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* Nebraska/Illinois Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Nebraska +4.5

The Nebraska Cornhuskers have been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  They have gone 23-9 SU & 21-11 ATS, including 13-8 SU & 14-7 ATS in Big Ten play.  They remain undervalued as 4.5-point dogs to Illinois today.

Both Illinois and Nebraska got a bye into the quarterfinals.  But Nebraska is going to be the fresher team because they crushed Indiana 93-66 yesterday, while Illinois needed a double-digit comeback to beat Ohio State 77-74.  The Fighting Illini basically trailed the entire way despite Ohio State playing its 3rd game in 3 days and being a tired team.

Now the Huskers have their sights set on revenge from an 87-84 (OT) road loss at Illinois.  The Huskers already proved they could play with the Fighting Illini on the road, and now I love their chances of pulling off the upset on a neutral in the rematch.

Nebraska is 9-1 ATS with a total of 150 to 159.5 this season.  The Huskers are 10-1 ATS when revenging a loss this season, including 8-0 ATS when revenging a road loss.  Illinois is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 tournament games.  Bet Nebraska Saturday.

15* St. Bonaventure/Duquesne Atlantic 10 ANNIHILATOR on Duquesne PK

Duquesne has been grossly undervalued since late January.  The Dukes won six consecutive games and have gone 13-3 SU in their last 16 games overall.  They beat Atlantic 10 favorite Dayton 65-57 last game to prove how good they are right now.  They also swept St. Bonaventure in the regular season winning 54-50 at home and 75-69 on the road.

St. Bonaventure is very fortunate to be in the semifinals.  The Bonnies beat La Salle 75-73 as 8.5-point favorites in the opener and Loyola-Chicago 75-74 (2 OT) in the quarterfinals for two wins by a combined 3 points.  Plus, Loyola-Chicago choked not scoring a single point in the final 6:02 of regulation after being in complete control, getting outscored 11-0 to close out the game to go to OT.

Duquesne is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after a combined score of 125 points or less.  The Dukes are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a good team that wins 60-80% of their games.  Bet Duquesne Saturday.

15* Wisconsin/Purdue Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin +6.5

The Wisconsin Badgers are playing with double-revenge today.  They lost by 6 at home and by 8 on the road in their two meetings with Purdue this season.  So they have shown they can play with the Boilermakers, and I think getting 6.5 points with them is a tremendous value today.

The Badgers have saved their best basketball for last going 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They crushed Maryland 87-56 in the Big Ten Tournament opener and were never really threatened late in their 70-61 win over Northwestern yesterday.  

Purdue was life and death with Michigan State in a 67-62 win yesterday.  PG Braden Smith (13.0 PPG, 7.2 APG, 44.6% 3-pointers) suffered a bad knee injury in that win over the Spartans.  He was hobbled pretty badly and I wouldn't be surprised if he sits today.  Matt Painter would be wise to sit him, but if he does play he won't be anywhere near 100%.

Greg Gard is 20-9 ATS when revenging a same-season loss as the coach of Wisconsin.  The Badgers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 tournament games.  Purdue is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 March games.  Wisconsin is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games against a top-level team that wins more than 80% of their games.  Bet Wisconsin Saturday.

15* CBB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Colorado -2

Colorado is a dangerous team when fully healthy and are proving it here down the stretch.  The Buffaloes are 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with five wins by double-digits, plus road wins over both USC and Oregon.  That includes their 72-58 win over Utah yesterday.

Washington State had a much easier opponent in Stanford yesterday.  The Cougars are already in the NCAA Tournament and won't be as motivated as Colorado, which is somehow still on the bubble despite winning seven consecutive games.  The Buffaloes have been playing with a chip on their shoulder because of it, and that chip will remain tonight.

Washington State is 0-7 ATS in road games off a win by 15 points or more over the last two seasons.  Bet Colorado Friday.

15* CBB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on NC State +3

Virginia is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Cavaliers are going to make the NCAA Tournament but they shouldn't.  They rank 9th in luck of 362 teams in the country, which is a stat that factors in wins in close games.  They have a ton of them.

The Cavaliers had another lucky win yesterday beating Boston College 66-60 (OT).  They trailed basically the entire way and never led by more than 2 points in regulation.  Their luck runs out today against a healthy, motivated NC State team that needs to win the ACC Tournament to make the NCAA Tournament.

NC State has been impressive in this ACC Tournament.  They upset Syracuse 83-65 in the opener and then upset Duke 74-69 as 11-point dogs yesterday.  They carry that momentum into yet another upset win over Virginia even though I believe they are the better team and should be favored.

Virginia is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games off a win by 6 points or less.  NC State is 35-18 ATS in its last 53 conference tournament games.  Bet NC State Friday.

15* Indiana/Nebraska Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Nebraska -3.5

The Nebraska Cornhuskers have been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  They have gone 22-9 SU & 20-11 ATS, including 12-8 SU & 13-7 ATS in Big Ten play.  They remain undervalued as only 3.5-point favorites over Indiana today.

Nebraska has the rest advantage after getting a bye into the quarterfinals.  Meanwhile, Indiana was life and death yesterday in a 61-59 victory over Penn State, which had played the day prior and was at a rest disadvantage. Indiana has basically a 6-man rotation right now without Trey Galloway (10.6 PPG, 4.6 APG), which makes this back-to-back situation for them even worse than most teams.

Indiana is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games when playing its 3rd game in a week.  The Hoosiers are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 points or more.  The Huskers beat the Hoosiers 86-70 at home and 85-70 on the road in their two meetings this season.  Nebraska is 14-4 ATS as a favorite this season.  Bet Nebraska Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Detroit Pistons +8.5

The Detroit Pistons have quietly gone 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They lost 118-110 at Miami as 11-point dogs during this stretch, and now they'll want revenge as 8.5-point home dogs in the rematch tonight.

I think this is a flat spot for the Heat, who fell short in their bid for revenge on the Denver Nuggets in their last game.  They lost 100-88 to fall to 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games.  They are now 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and grossly overvalued.  They are without Tyler Herro, Josh Richardson and Kevin Love right now, and the Terry Rozier experiment just isn't working out.

Miami is 3-11 ATS off two consecutive losses this season.  Detroit is 11-3 ATS off two consecutive home games this season.  The Heat are 20-40 ATS in their last 60 games against a team with a losing record.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Detroit) - a poor team that is outscored by 3-plus points per game, after allowing 105 points or fewer in two consecutive games are 44-13 (77.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Pistons Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Hornets +10

The Charlotte Hornets have quietly gone 11-6-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  This young team just keeps showing up on a nightly basis.  They will relish the opportunity to try and take down the Phoenix Suns at home tonight.

The Suns are in a terrible spot here.  They failed to get revenge in a 127-112 road loss at Boston last night after losing to the Celtics at home less than a week earlier.  Now they are in a flat spot here as they won't nearly be as motivated to beat the Hornets tonight.  

This is also a sandwich spot for the Suns, who have another big game on deck at Milwaukee on Sunday.  They are a tired team after Devin Booker played 38 minutes, Bradley Beal 36, Kevin Durant 34, Grayson Allen 36 and Jusuf Nurkic 31 last night.  They have zero depth, so they can't handle this back-to-back situations as well as other NBA teams with depth.

The Suns are 7-21 ATS after going over the total in their previous game this season.  Bet the Hornets Friday.

15* Pitt/UNC ACC ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +7.5

The Pittsburgh Panthers remain one of the most underrated teams in the country, going 10-2 SU & 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall, yet they are on the bubble.  This team is playing with a chip on their shoulder as a result.  They made easy work of Wake Forest yesterday, and now they have a great shot to pull the upset over North Carolina today.

Pittsburgh is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when revenging a home loss.  The Panthers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring 80 points or more in two consecutive games.  The Panthers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven ACC Tournament semifinal games.  Bet Pittsburgh Friday.

20* St. John's/UConn Big East No-Brainer on St. John's +9.5

St. John's has been on a tear since head coach Rick Pitino called out his team.  They have gone 6-0 SU in their last six games overall including an 80-66 upset win over Creighton and blowout wins over Butler by 23 on the road and Seton Hall by 19 in the opener of the Big East Tournament yesterday.

Now the Red Storm have their sights set on revenge on the UConn Huskies.  They led UConn at halftime in each of their first two meetings this season before falling apart in the 2H.  It has been a problem for the Red Storm all season until lately.  They are closing these games out, and I think they will close this one out too with a great chance to pull off the outright upset.

Asking UConn to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  UConn was in more of a dog fight with Xavier yesterday than they should have been trailing 10-0 early.  The Huskies thus had to play their starters in the 2H to put them away.  They have benefited from a pretty easy schedule here down the stretch and will get more of a fight than they bargained for from the Red Storm here tonight.  Bet St. John's Friday.

15* Wisconsin/Northwestern Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin -3.5

The Wisconsin Badgers made easy work of Maryland 87-56 yesterday.  They got to rest their starters in the 2H and will still be fresh for this game against Northwestern.  That's why I'm willing to lay the points with the Badgers despite being at a rest disadvantage against the Wildcats, who got a bye into the quarterfinals.

The Wildcats are vulnerable right now playing without two key players in G Ty Berry (11.6 PPG, 43.3% 3-pointers) and C Matthew Nicholson (5.3 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 1.4 BPG) to really hamper their depth.  They lost two of their final three games to close out the regular season without these guys.  Bet Wisconsin Friday.

15* CBB Friday Early ANNIHILATOR on South Florida -7

South Florida is 23-6 this season including 16-2 in AAC play and still lacking the respect they deserve in the AAC Tournament.  Somehow this team is on the wrong side of the bubble, and the Bulls have been playing with a chip on their shoulder because of it.  That chip will be bigger than ever in the AAC Tournament.

The Bulls have the rest advantage over East Carolina in this one.  They got a bye into the quarterfinals while East Carolina was life and death with Tulsa yesterday in an 84-79 victory.  The Pirates won't have much left in the tank for the Bulls, who won their lone meeting on the road 71-60 earlier this season.

South Florida is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. teams that are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game.  The Bulls are 7-0 ATS after winning six or seven of their last eight games this season.  Bet South Florida Friday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Colorado -3.5

Colorado is a dangerous team when fully healthy and are proving it here down the stretch.  The Buffaloes are 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall with four wins by double-digits, plus road wins over both USC and Oregon.  That includes their 89-65 home win over Utah on February 24th.

It should be another blowout in the Buffaloes' favor in the rematch due to their rest advantage after getting a bye into the quarterfinals, while Utah had to play Arizona State yesterday.  While the Utes made easy work of the Sun Devils, things will come much tougher for them today against a Colorado team that has a legit shot to run the table and win the Pac-12 Tournament.

Utah is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 10 points or more, and 0-6 ATS when revenging a double-digit loss this season.  Bet Colorado Thursday.

15* Villanova/Marquette Big East ANNIHILATOR on Villanova +4.5

This is a great spot to 'buy low' on Villanova.  They needed a 3-pointer in the final seconds to beat DePaul as a 24.5-point favorite yesterday.  Nobody wants to back this team now.  The Wildcats are playing with a chip on their shoulder because of all the hate they have been receiving.  They are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament and a win over Marquette today may very well get them in.

The Golden Eagles are without G Tyler Kolek (15.0 PPG, 40% 3-pointers) right now.  Kolek scored 53 points combined in his two meetings with Villanova earlier this season, so not having him on the court in the 3rd meeting here will make all the difference and gives the Wildcats a legit shot to pull off the upset.  Bet Villanova Thursday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Baylor -4.5

Baylor got a bye into the quarterfinals and has a massive rest advantage over Cincinnati.  The Bearcats will be playing their 3rd game in 3 days after a hard-fought 90-85 win over West Virginia in the opener, and then beating a dead Kansas team yesterday that was without its two best players in Kevin McCullar Jr. and Hunter Dickinson.

Now the Bearcats take a big step up in class here against a Baylor team that is fully healthy and hitting on all cylinders right now.  The Bears just got Langston Love back from injury for their run through these conference and NCAA Tournaments.  Cincinnati is not a deep team and playing their 3rd game in 3 days will really test that depth.

Baylor is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games after allowing 40 points or more in the first half of two consecutive games, including a perfect 9-0 ATS since Scott Drew took over in Waco.  Cincinnati is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference opponent.  Bet Baylor Thursday.

15* Boston College/Virginia ACC ANNIHILATOR on Boston College +5

Rarely will I back a team playing their 3rd game in 3 days against a team that hasn't played yet in these conference tournaments.  Usually the team playing their 3rd game in 3 days runs out of gas, but that shouldn't be the case for Boston College.

The Eagles made easy work of Miami 81-65 two days ago and then easy work of Clemson 76-55 yesterday.  They are a pretty deep team with a 9-man rotation, and four of their five starters played 31 or fewer minutes yesterday.  They should still be plenty fresh for Virginia tonight.

Virginia is one of the most overrated teams in the country and doesn't belong in the Big Dance.  The Cavaliers are 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Two of the three wins came by 4 points or less, including a 4-point win over Boston College on February 28th, which places the Eagles in revenge mode as well.

Virginia is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games away from home after winning two of its last three games.  The Eagles are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall and I'll ride that momentum today in a game they are more than capable of pulling off the outright upset for a 3rd consecutive day.  Bet Boston College Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Washington State -8.5

Washington State has the rest advantage over Stanford today.  The Cougars got a bye into the Pac-12 quarterfinals, while the Cardinal needed an 18-point 2H comeback to beat rival California yesterday.  Not only that, but the Cardinal needed OT to get the job done, so they are extra tired.

The only team Stanford has been able to beat here of late is lowly California, who they get up for because they are rivals.  The Cardinal are 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS in their last eight games overall with both wins coming of Cal, and all six losses coming by 10 points or more.  Four starters played at least 36 minutes for Stanford yesterday, and they won't have much left in the tank for Washington State tonight.

Washington State beat Stanford 89-75 on the road and 72-59 at home in their two meetings earlier this season.  Another double-digit victory in their favor will be the result with their rest advantage tonight.  The Cougars are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. good shooting teams that make 45% or better.  Bet Washington State Thursday.

20* Suns/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on Phoenix +6

I love the spot for the Phoenix Suns tonight.  They just got Devin Booker back from injury and promptly beat Cleveland on the road last time out.  Now they have had the last two days off and will be fresh and nearly fully healthy for this rematch against the Boston Celtics tonight.

The Suns didn't have Booker when they lost 117-107 at home to the Celtics on March 9th.  So they will now be out for revenge on the Celtics from that defeat, and I like their chances of staying within 6 points and possibly pulling off the upset in the rematch.

Boston doesn't have much to play for the rest of the way and will have a hard time getting motivated to beat the Suns again.  This is a terrible spot for the Celtics, who are returning home from a 5-game road trip.  I always like fading teams in that first home game back from a long road trip because there are a ton of distractions to deal with back at home.  

They will also be playing in their 6th different city in 10 days, will be without Kristaps Porzingis tonight, and could be without Jaylen Brown who is questionable.  This is a tired team right now.  The Suns are the fresher, more motivated team, which is exactly the type of team I'm looking to back in the NBA.  Bet the Suns Thursday.

15* K-State/Iowa State Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on Iowa State -5.5

The T-Mobile Center in Kansas City is known as Hilton South.  The Cyclones always get a great following for the Big 12 Tournament and it's like the same home-court advantage they have when playing in Hilton, and they didn't lose once at home this season.

The Cyclones have the rest advantage today after getting a bye into the quarterfinals, while the Wildcats needed a big comeback to beat Texas 78-74 yesterday.  The Wildcats are not a deep team and had five players play at least 29 minutes yesterday.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Cyclones today.

Iowa State also wants revenge from a 65-58 loss at Kansas State in the regular season finale.  They had just accomplished a perfect home record with a 68-63 home win over BYU three days prior and were in a clear letdown spot.  Now the Wildcats will have their full attention in the rematch here tonight.

Iowa State is 10-2 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in 8 days this season.  The Cyclones are 27-13 ATS in their last 40 conference tournament games.  Iowa State is 60-38 ATS in its last 98 games when revenging a loss where they scored 60 points or less.  Bet Iowa State Thursday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Ohio State -1.5

Firing head coach Chris Holtmann was the best thing that could have happened to Ohio State.  The Buckeyes have gone 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with their two losses both coming on the road to Wisconsin and Minnesota.  They upset Purdue at home and Michigan State on the road during this stretch.

The Buckeyes have all of the momentum heading into the Big Ten Tournament and I trust them to get revenge on Iowa after falling 79-77 to the Hawkeyes in Iowa City on February 2nd.  The Hawkeyes don't play defense and they lack good big men inside.  They are just a very hard team to trust.

Ohio State is 8-1 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 45% shooting or higher over the last two seasons.  The Buckeyes are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games when revenging a same-season loss.  Bet Ohio State Thursday.

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on Loyola-Chicago -2

Loyola-Chicago got a bye into the quarterfinals and has the rest advantage over St. Bonaventure today.  The Bonnies were life and dead with La Salle in a 75-73 win yesterday.  They only have a 7-man rotation and their starters played 40, 40, 39, 34 and 22 minutes yesterday.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Ramblers today.  Bet Loyola-Chicago Thursday.

15* TCU/Houston Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on TCU +10.5

TCU is squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  But the Horned Frogs can make their case with an upset win over Houston today.  They will be 'all in' to get this win, and catching 10.5 points is a nice value on a desperate Horned Frogs team today.

Houston was dominant at home this season, but they were vulnerable on the highway.  In fact, each of their last 11 road games were either losses or wins by 8 points or less.  That makes for an 11-0 system backing TCU pertaining to this 10.5-point spread.  Houston doesn't need this win as they are locked into a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.  Bet TCU Thursday.

15* Wake Forest/Pittsburgh ACC ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +2

Pitt has a bye into the quarterfinals and has the rest advantage today over Wake Forest, which is a big reason why I'm on the Panthers.  Plus, this is one of the most underrated teams in the country, going 9-2 SU & 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall, yet they are on the bubble.  This team is playing with a chip on their shoulder as a result.

Wake Forest is not a deep team and will not handle this back-to-back situation very well as a result.  The Demon Deacons had to play their starters big minutes yesterday in a 72-59 win over Notre Dame.  All five starters played at least 26 minutes, including 36 from Sallis and 35 from Miller.  Their bench provided a total of 11 points in the win as this is one of the worst benches in the country.

Pittsburgh is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring 80 points or more in two consecutive games.  Bet Pittsburgh Thursday.

15* Maryland/Wisconsin Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin -3

Wisconsin has the rest advantage over Maryland today.  The Badgers got a bye into the quarterfinals while the Terrapins beat Rutgers 65-51 yesterday.  Seven players played at least 21 minutes for the Terrapins yesterday, and I question how much they have left in the tank for the Badgers.

Rutgers pretty much quit late in the season, so the Terrapins are getting too much respect from that win.  Maryland is 1-8 ATS off a win by 10 points or more this season.  It's a great 'buy low' spot on the Badgers, who went 3-8 SU & 2-9 ATS in their final 11 games to close out the regular season.  Bet Wisconsin Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on UMass +2.5

UMass has the rest advantage today getting a bye into the quarterfinals while VCU was in a dog fight with Fordham yesterday in a 69-62 win.  That's a big factor as to why I'm backing UMass.  Plus, the minutemen beat the Rams 74-52 in their lone meeting this season, and I trust head coach Frank Martin to have his team ready.

UMass is 9-2 ATS off an ATS loss this season.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet UMass Thursday.

15* St. Joe's/Richmond Atlantic 10 Early ANNIHILATOR on Richmond -2.5

Richmond has the rest advantage today getting a bye into the quarterfinals while St. Joe's was in a dog fight with George Mason yesterday.  St. Joe's saw all 5 starters play at least 34 minutes and they are lacking depth with only a 7-man rotation.  That's a big factor as to why I'm backing Richmond.

The Spiders beat the Hawks 73-66 in their lone meeting this season.  Richmond has been undervalued all year going 21-9 ATS in all game, including 14-4 ATS as a favorite.  The Spiders are also a perfect 11-0 ATS after playing a game as an underdog this season, and 8-0 ATS off an ATS loss this season.  Bet Richmond Thursday.

15* Lakers/Kings ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +1

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Lakers tonight.  They have won three of their last four games beating three of the top teams in the NBA in the Thunder, Bucks and Timberwolves.  Now they have their sights set on revenge after losing each of their first three meetings this season with the Kings, including blowing a double-digit lead in their lone loss in their last four games.

The Lakers have a massive rest advantage here.  They have had the last two days off, while the Kings will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win over the Milwaukee Bucks last night.  That win ended a 15-game losing streak to the Bucks, so this game has letdown written all over it for the Kings, who won't be that motivated to beat the Lakers again.

Sacramento is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 home games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days.  The Kings are 4-13 ATS off a win by 10 points or more this season.  Bet the Lakers Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Villanova -22.5

Fading DePaul has been a great move here of late.  The Blue Demons are a mess after firing head coach Tony Stubblefield and just ready for this season to be over.  They are 0-20 SU & 7-13 ATS in Big East play this season while getting outscored by 23.9 points per game.  They are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall 10 of those losses by double-digits and eight by 19 points or more.

Villanova is squarely on the bubble and cannot afford to take DePaul lightly.  They haven't take the Blue Demons lightly in their two meetings already this season to say the least.  Villanova beat DePaul 84-48 on the road on December 23rd and 94-69 at home on January 12th.  Another 23-plus point victory in their favor is in store today to cover this number.  This will be our last opportunity to fade DePaul this season, and we'll take full advantage.

DePaul is 0-6 ATS when revenging a road loss by 10 points or more this season.  The Blue Demons are 6-15 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Bet Villanova Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State -6.5

Michigan is just ready for this season to be over.  The Wolverines have gone 0-8 SU & 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall with all eight losses by 8 points or more and seven losses by double-digits.  They should be catching more than 6.5 points to Penn State today.

Penn State has improved as the season has gone on under first-year head coach Mike Rhoades.  The Nittany Lions are 6-5 SU & 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They are coming off an 85-69 win over Maryland and will make easy work of this lifeless Michigan team tonight.

Penn State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven conference tournament games.  Michigan is 0-13 ATS after allowing 80 points or more this season.  This will be our last chance to fade the Wolverines this season and we'll take advantage.  Bet Penn State Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Heat +4.5

This is a great spot to 'buy low' on the Miami Heat off three consecutive losses.  They lost two tough road games to Dallas (by 6) and OKC (by 7) before having a letdown at home in an upset loss to the Wizards.  They were clearly looking ahead to this game against the Denver Nuggets.

Miami wants revenge after losing 4-1 to the Nuggets in the NBA Finals last season.  They also lost a 103-97 heartbreaker at Denver just a few games ago on February 29th.  Now they get the Nuggets at home and I think it will make all the difference.

This is a great time to 'sell high' on the Nuggets, who have won three consecutive games and nine of their last 10 games overall.  They won't be that motivated to beat the Heat again tonight.  This game has letdown written all over it for the Nuggets.

Denver is 4-12 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season.  Miami is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 home games off an loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent.  Bet the Heat Wednesday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Duquesne -6.5

Saint Louis was life and dead yesterday with Rhode Island in a 74-71 win.  The Billikens only have a 7-man rotation and Jimerson played 39 minutes, Hargrove Jr. 36 and Medley 34 yesterday.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Duquesne Dukes today.

I'll gladly back Duquesne with the rest advantage today.  The Dukes have been playing their best basketball of the season here down the stretch.  They have gone 11-3 SU in their last 14 games overall including an 81-66 win as 9.5-point home favorites over St. Louis.  This is a short number for them to be laying in the rematch, especially with the rest advantage.

St. Louis is 0-7 ATS when revenging a loss this season.  Bet Duquesne Wednesday.