Winning Sports Picks

20* Pelicans/Thunder TNT No-Brainer on New Orleans +8

The Oklahoma City Thunder are a young team getting their first taste of the playoffs.  They played like it in Game 1 being very fortunate to come away with a 94-92 victory over the New Orleans Pelicans.  I don't expect Game 2 to be a walk in the park for them, either.

The Pelicans are a veteran team with playoff experience and know the importance of trying to get one in Oklahoma City.  They shot just 38.5% as a team and 11-of-39 (28.2%) from 3-point range in Game 1 and still only lost by 2.  They dominated on the boards including 18 offensive rebounds, and the Thunder don't have an answer for Jonas Valanciunas in this series.  Dominating the board is sustainable, shooting that poorly again is not.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series.  In fact, the road team is 7-1 SU & 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Neither team has been favored by more than 5.5 points in any of the last 12 meetings with the exception of the 8.5-point spread in Game 1.  This 8-point spread in Game 2 is too high as well.  Bet the Pelicans Wednesday.

20* NL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-120)

The Miami Marlins are now 6-19 this season after getting shut out in consecutive games by the Braves to open this series.  They have scored 3 runs or fewer in six of their last seven games and are averaging just 2.3 runs per game during this stretch.

It won't get any easier for them against Reynaldo Lopez, who has been brilliant for the Braves this season.  Lopez is 2-0 with a 0.50 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in three starts, allowing just one earned run in 18 innings with 18 K's.

Sixto Sanchez sat out from 2021-23 and he is just getting a spot start here.  Sanchez is 0-1 with a 6.14 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 7 1/3 innings out of the bullpen this season, allowing 5 earned runs and 11 hits.  Sanchez is 1-1 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in three career starts against Atlanta.

The Braves are 4-1 in their last five meetings with the Marlins with all four wins coming by 2 runs or more.  Bet the Braves on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-115)

The Los Angeles Dodgers have a big advantage at the plate today over the Washington Nationals.  They are scoring 5.6 runs per game against right-handed starters this season while the Nationals are scoring just 3.4 runs per game.  The Nationals just lost one of their best hitters in RF Lane Thomas to a knee injury yesterday as well.

Landon Knack was solid in his first start this season holding the Nationals to 2 runs in 5 innings.  He has posted a 4.02 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 15 2/3 innings at AAA this season for the Dodgers with 16 K's and only one homer allowed.

Jake Irvin went 3-7 with a 4.61 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 24 starts for the Nationals last season, allowing 62 earned runs and 20 homers in 121 innings as a rookie.  He is off to a better start this season, but it's unsustainable.  Look for Irvin to get rocked tonight.

The Dodgers are 36-13 in their last 49 games against a NL starting pitcher with a 3.20 ERA or better.  They are outscoring opponents by 2.7 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Wednesday. 

20* AL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Baltimore Orioles -124

The Baltimore Orioles have a big advantage on the mound and at the plate today over the Los Angeles Angels.  The Orioles have scored at least 4 runs in 10 consecutive games behind one of the best offenses in baseball.  The Angels have scored 2 runs or fewer in four of their last six games, and they are 1-5 in their last six games overall.

Dean Kremer is 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in four starts this season.  Kremer is 2-0 with a 1.76 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in three career starts against the Angels, and the Orioles are 3-0 in those three starts.

Tyler Anderson is very fortunate to have a 1.42 ERA in his four starts this season.  He is getting hit hard, but balls are going right at defenders.  He has just 14 K's in 25 1/3 innings and pitches to contact.  His luck will run out today against the hard-hitting Orioles.  Bet the Orioles Wednesday.

20* Mavericks/Clippers TNT No-Brainer on Dallas ML -122

The Dallas Mavericks shot 2-of-18 from 3 in the 1H and scored only 8 points total in the 2Q in Game 1 against the Los Angeles Clippers.  They still only lost by 12.  That was as bad as it could have gone for the Mavericks as Daniel Gafford picked up two early fouls and changed their game plan.  Game 2 will go much differently tonight.

I believe the Mavericks are the better team and that will show in Game 2 tonight.  The Mavericks went 12-1 SU & 11-2 ATS in their 13 games to close out the regular season in which they were trying to win games and healthy.  They are fully healthy now and trying to win games.

The Clippers shot 18-of-36 (50%) from 3-point range in Game 1.  That's not going to happen again.

Dallas is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games when revenging a loss as a favorite.  Bet the Mavericks on the Money Line in Game 2 Tuesday.

20* AL GAME OF THE WEEK on Baltimore Orioles -151

The Baltimore Orioles have a big advantage on the mound and at the plate tonight over the Los Angeles Angels.  The Orioles have scored at least 4 runs in nine consecutive games behind one of the best offenses in baseball.  The Angels have scored 2 runs or fewer in four of their last five games, and they are 0-5 in their last five games overall while scoring a total of 9 runs or an average of 1.8 runs per game.

Grayson Rodriquez is one of the best young starters in baseball.  He is 3-0 with a 2.62 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in four starts this season.  One of those starts came against the Angels on March 30th as he held them to one earned run in 6 innings with 9 K's in a 13-4 victory.

Griffin Canning is 0-3 with an 8.05 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in four starts for the Angels this season, allowing 17 earned runs and 5 homers in 19 innings.  One of those starts came against the Orioles opposite Rodriquez on March 30th where he allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings of that 13-4 defeat.  Canning fell to 0-3 with a 9.17 ERA and 2.04 WHIP in four career starts against the Orioles.

Baltimore is 14-4 in its last 18 meetings with the Angels, including 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Los Angeles.  The Orioles are 19-4 (+13.4 Units) in their last 23 games as a road favorite of -125 or more.  Bet the Orioles Tuesday.

15* Pacers/Bucks NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +1.5

The Indiana Pacers went 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS against the Milwaukee Bucks in the regular season.  This is clearly a great matchup for them, but it didn't play out that way in Game 1 as Damian Lillard scored 35 first half points and it was just too much for them to overcome.

Lillard won't be as hot again, and the Bucks won't out shoot the Pacers like they did in Game 1.  The Pacers shot just 39.6% from the field and 8-of-39 (20.5%) from 3-point range.  I have to think they will have some major positive shooting regression in their favor in Game 2.

The Bucks are expected to be without Giannis Antetokounmpo again in Game 2.  They can play one good game without him, but to continue to play great games without him is unsustainable.  He's one of the best players in the NBA for a reason with all he can do on both ends of the court.

Indiana is 26-11 ATS off an ATS loss this season.  The Pacers are 7-0 ATS in Tuesday road games this season.  Indiana is 28-14 ATS when playing its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  The Pacers are 20-6 ATS against teams that average 7 or fewer steals per game this season.  Bet the Pacers in Game 2 Tuesday.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-130)

I love fading Patrick Corbin.  He has been one of the worst starters in baseball over the last 5 years.  He went 2-7 with a 4.66 ERA in 2020, 9-16 with a 5.82 ERA in 2021, 6-19 with a 6.31 ERA in 2022 and 10-15 with a 5.20 ERA in 2023.  He is off to another rough start this season, going 0-3 with an 8.06 ERA and 1.97 WHIP in four starts while allowing 20 earned runs and 44 base runners in 22 1/3 innings.

Corbin is 0-4 with a 10.71 ERA in his last five starts against the Dodgers, allowing 25 earned runs, 6 homers and 50 base runners in 21 innings.  He just allowed 5 earned runs and 13 base runners in 6 1/3 innings of a 6-2 loss to the Dodgers on April 16th in his last start.  The Dodgers are 5-1 in their last six games against Corbin with all five wins coming by 4 runs or more.

The Dodgers have a big advantage on the mound today that will have them winning this game by multiple runs.  James Paxton is 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA in three starts this season, allowing just 5 earned runs in 16 innings.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* MLB TOTAL OF THE DAY on Dodgers/Nationals OVER 9.5

I love fading Patrick Corbin.  He has been one of the worst starters in baseball over the last 5 years.  He went 2-7 with a 4.66 ERA in 2020, 9-16 with a 5.82 ERA in 2021, 6-19 with a 6.31 ERA in 2022 and 10-15 with a 5.20 ERA in 2023.  He is off to another rough start this season, going 0-3 with an 8.06 ERA and 1.97 WHIP in four starts while allowing 20 earned runs and 44 base runners in 22 1/3 innings.

Corbin is 0-4 with a 10.71 ERA in his last five starts against the Dodgers, allowing 25 earned runs, 6 homers and 50 base runners in 21 innings.  He just allowed 5 earned runs and 13 base runners in 6 1/3 innings of a 6-2 loss to the Dodgers on April 16th in his last start.

The Dodgers are capable of covering this OVER 9.5 on their own.  They are scoring 5.2 runs per game this season with one of the best lineups in baseball.  But the Nationals should contribute as well as they have scored 5 and 6 runs in their last two games.

The Dodgers are 54-31 OVER in their last 85 road games.  James Paxton is 10-1 OVER in his 11 career starts as a road favorite of -175 or more.  Washington is 50-31 OVER in its last 81 games off two or more consecutive unders.  There are expected to be 10 MPH winds blowing out to left-center in Washington tonight that will aid us in cashing this OVER 9.5 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

25* NBA Western Conference Round 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles +7.5

This is a must-win game for the Lakers if they want to give Denver a series.  I expect their biggest effort of the season to try and get it done in Game 2.  They should not be catching 7.5 points to the Nuggets here tonight.

The Lakers outplayed the Nuggets in three of four quarters in Game 1.  Unfortunately, they came out flat after halftime after taking a 3-point lead into the break.  They lost the 3rd quarter 32-18.  I expect them to make the right adjustments coming out of the break this time around.

The Nuggets took 23 more shots than the Lakers and only committed 4 turnovers in Game 1 yet still only won by 11.  That's going to be very hard for them to replicate.  I expect Game 2 to come down to the wire with the Lakers with an excellent chance to pull off the outright upset, so getting 7.5 points here is a tremendous value.  Bet the Lakers in Game 2 Monday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blue Jays/Royals OVER 9

The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER 9 ticket between the Blue Jays and Royals tonight.  There are expected to be 23 MPH winds blowing out to left-center at Kauffman Stadium with temps approaching 70.  This should be a home run fest.

The Royals are scoring 5.9 runs per game at home this season.  The Blue Jays are finally getting their bats going scoring at least 3 runs in nine consecutive games coming in.  Both starting pitchers have been solid this season, but their numbers are about to get inflated tonight given the weather conditions working against them.

Kansas City is 14-3 OVER in its last 17 home games off a loss by 4 runs or more.  Brady Singer is 17-6 OVER in his last 23 starts as an underdog.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Marlins/Braves OVER 9.5

The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER 9.5 ticket between the Marlins and Braves tonight.  There are expected to be light winds blowing out to left-center in Atlanta tonight with temps in the 60's.

The Atlanta Braves are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have arguably the best lineup in baseball.  They are hitting .285 and scoring 6.2 runs per game this season.  They should feast on Ryan Weathers, who is 7-16 with a 5.52 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in his career in the big leagues across 176 innings.

The Marlins have gotten their bats going of late scoring at least 3 runs in eight of their last nine games overall.  They are scoring 4.8 runs per game against right-handed starters this season.  They should keep them going against Bryce Elder, who will be making his first start of the season for the Braves.  Elder posted an 8.25 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in spring training this season.

The OVER is 14-3 in the last 17 meetings between the Marlins and Braves with 9 or more combined runs in 14 of those 17 meetings.  Atlanta is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 home games against bad teams that are outscored by 1 or more runs per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NL Monday Total DOMINATOR on Phillies/Reds OVER 8.5

The forecast looks good for a slug fest tonight at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati.  Temps will be in the 60t's with very light winds blowing across the diamond from the right field foul pole to the left field foul pole.

The Philadelphia Phillies have gone 6-0 in their last six games overall and are hitting the cover off the ball right now.  They have scored at least 5 runs in five consecutive games and 7 or more in four straight.

The Reds have one of the best lineups in the National League.  They are scoring 5.3 runs per game overall and 5.5 runs per game at home.  They should get to Ranger Suarez, who is getting too much respect for the great numbers he has posted against a very soft schedule of the Rockies, Pirates, Nationals and Braves.  Not surprisingly, his worst start came against the Braves.

The Phillies should stay hot at the plate against Hunter Grenee, who is 0-1 with a 4.35 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in four starts for the Reds this season.  Greene allowed 2 earned runs and 8 base runners in 4 2/3 innings in his lone career start against Philadelphia last season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Pelicans/Thunder TNT Sunday Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +8.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder beat the Pelicans in the play-in round last year to knock them out of the playoffs.  The Thunder went on to lose to the Timberwolves in their next play-in game, so they didn't get the full playoff experience.

The Pelicans have not forgotten and they want revenge.  The Thunder are the No. 1 seed in the West, but none of these players have real playoff experience.  I think that will work against them and this young team is extremely vulnerable as a result.  They should not be 8.5-point favorites over the battle-tested Pelicans in Game 1 tonight.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series.  In fact, the road team is 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Neither team has been favored by more than 5.5 points in any of the last 11 meetings, so this 8.5-point spread is unprecedented.  It's simply too many points tonight.  Bet the Pelicans Sunday.

20* Rangers/Braves ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 10

The Atlanta Braves are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have arguably the best lineup in baseball.  They are hitting .291 and scoring 6.4 runs per game this season, including .305 and 6.7 runs per game against right-handed starters.

The Texas Rangers rode their offense to the World Series title last year.  Their offense is loaded again this season.  They are scoring 4.9 runs per game this season, including hitting .279 and scoring 5.5 runs per game against right-handed starters.

Darius Vines will be making just his 2nd start of the season and his 4th career start overall for the Braves today.  He only lasted 4 2/3 innings in his first start and will be on a short leash.  Michael Lorenzen allowed 8 base runners in 5 innings to the Tigers but no earned runs.  He is one of the worst starters in baseball and hasn't pitched more than 153 innings in any season.  He allowed 20 homers in those 153 innings last season.

There are expected to be 10 MPH winds blowing out to straightaway center in Atlanta tonight that will aid us in cashing this OVER 10 ticket.  Texas is 14-2 OVER in its last 16 games after a 5-game span with a .285 OBP or worse.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Mets/Dodgers OVER 9

Two of the best offenses in baseball square off today with temps in the 70's and light winds blowing out to center in Los Angeles today.  The Dodgers are scoring 5.0 runs per game overall and 5.3 runs per game at home.  The Mets are scoring 5.1 runs per game overall and 7.0 runs per game on the road.

I expect the Dodgers to do the heavy lifting in us cashing this OVER ticket today.  They should feast on Adrian Houser, who is 0-1 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in three starts this season, allowing 8 earned runs and 23 base runners in 15 1/3 innings.  Houser is 0-2 with a 9.40 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in two career starts against the Dodgers, allowing 8 earned runs in 7 2/3 innings.

Tyler Glasnow hasn't been perfect this season as he is 3-1 with a 3.72 ERA and allowed 6 earned runs and 2 homers in 5 innings to the Nationals in his last start.  Glasnow is 1-2 with a 4.88 ERA in three career starts against the Mets, allowing 6 homers in 19 innings.  The Mets have scored at least 5 runs in nine of their last 11 games.

The OVER is 8-3 in Mets last 11 games overall.  The OVER is 10-4-2 in Dodgers 16 home games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Late Afternoon BLOWOUT on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-120)

The Los Angeles Dodgers will be highly motivated for a victory today.  They have lost the first two games in this series to the New York Mets and will be looking to avoid the sweep in Game 3.  I like their chances of winning this game by multiple runs due to their massive advantage on the mound.

The Dodgers should feast on Adrian Houser, who is 0-1 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in three starts this season, allowing 8 earned runs and 23 base runners in 15 1/3 innings.  Houser is 0-2 with a 9.40 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in two career starts against the Dodgers, allowing 8 earned runs in 7 2/3 innings.

Tyler Glasnow is 3-1 with a 3.72 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in five starts for the Dodgers this season.  He has allowed 12 earned runs and 28 base runners in 29 innings with 34 K's.  I expect him to hold the Mets in check this afternoon.

Glasnow's teams are 20-1 in his last 21 starts as a favorite of -175 to -250 and winning by 2.5 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Sunday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Orioles/Royals OVER 9

The Baltimore Orioles and Kansas City Royals are two of the best offensive teams in the American League.  The Orioles are scoring 5.8 runs per game this season, 5.9 runs per game on the road and 6.2 runs per game against right-handed starters.  The Royals are scoring 6.4 runs per game at home and 6.7 runs per game against left-handed starters.

Lefty Cole Irvin has been a disaster for the Orioles this season.  He is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in three starts, allowing 11 earned runs and 25 base runners in 14 2/3 innings.  Irvin allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings to the Royals back on April 2nd earlier this season.

Seth Lugo has gotten off to an impressive start this season for the Royals, which is keeping this total lower than it should be.  But Lugo has benefited from facing the White Sox twice and the Twins, two of the worst offenses in the American League.  This is a big step up in class for Lugo here, and I expect him to have by far his worst outing of the season as a result.

The OVER is 17-5 in Lugo's last 22 starts after giving up one earned run or fewer in his last start.  Baltimore is 50-34 OVER in its last 84 road games.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Angels/Reds OVER 9

The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER 9 ticket between the Angels and Reds today.  There are expected to be 10 MPH winds blowing out to straightaway center at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark this afternoon.

The Reds are really a dead nuts OVER team with one of the most underrated lineups in the league plus a suspect rotation and bullpen.  They are scoring 5.4 runs per game overall including 5.7 runs per game at home.  The Angels are scoring 4.6 runs per game on the road, and they have a suspect rotation and bullpen as well.

Frankie Montas has allowed 8 earned runs, 2 homers and 14 base runners in 7 innings in his last two starts for the Reds.  Jose Soriano is 0-1 with a 5.00 ERA in two starts for the Angels this season, allowing 5 earned runs in 9 innings.  Montas allowed 4 earned runs and 3 homers in 6 innings to the Angels in his last start against them.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Early Afternoon BLOWOUT on Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (-140)

The Chicago White Sox are the worst team in baseball.  They are 3-17 this season while hitting .190 and scoring 2.1 runs per game and getting outscored by 3.3 runs per game.  They are without two of their best hitters right now in Robert Jr. and Moncada to make matters worse.

Instead of laying the Phillies -300 on the money line today, we'll take this massive discount on the -140 run line to win this game by two runs or more.  The Phillies are 5-0 in their last five games overall and have scored at least 5 runs in four consecutive games.  That includes their 7-0 win in Game 1 and their 9-5 win in Game 2 over the White Sox in which they led 9-0 heading into the 9th.

The Phillies have a massive advantage on the mound today.  Aaron Nola is 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing just 3 earned runs and 17 base runners in 19 innings.  Nick Nastrini will be making just his 2nd career start for the White Sox, and I don't expect it to go well for him today against the hot-hitting Phillies.

Chicago is 0-12 after losing four of its last five games this season and losing by 4.5 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Phillies on the Run Line Sunday.

20* Lakers/Nuggets ABC No-Brainer on Los Angeles +7.5

The Los Angeles Lakers made the Western Conference Finals last year and got swept by the Denver Nuggets.  The series was much closer than the 4-game sweep would indicate as the Lakers just couldn't finish games late.  Three games were decided by 6 points or fewer.

The Lakers then went on to get swept by the Nuggets in the regular season.  It's safe to say the Lakers want revenge on the Nuggets, and it starts with Game 1 of this series as inflated 7.5-point dogs.  You're paying a tax on the Nuggets now after winning the NBA Finals last year, and I think they will be a great team to fade in these playoffs as a result.

The Lakers are finally nearly fully healthy and playing their best basketball of the season.  They went 12-3 SU in their last 15 games just to make the playoffs, including their clutch 110-106 road win at New Orleans in the play-in game.  They weren't afraid of the Nuggets by winning that game knowing that would be their matchup.  They 'want all that smoke', and I expect LeBron James and company to come up clutch and give the Nuggets a run for their money in this series, starting with Game 1.  Bet the Lakers Saturday.

20* Rangers/Braves Interleague No-Brainer on OVER 9

The Atlanta Braves are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have arguably the best lineup in baseball.  They are hitting .292 and scoring 6.4 runs per game this season, including .307 and 6.8 runs per game against right-handed starters.

The Texas Rangers rode their offense to the World Series title last year.  Their offense is loaded again this season.  They are scoring 5.0 runs per game this season, including hitting .287 and scoring 5.8 runs per game against right-handed starters.

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this OVER ticket.  Temps will be in the 70's with 10 MPH winds blowing out to left-center in Atlanta Saturday night.

Nathan Eovaldi and Charlie Morton are both getting too much respect with this 9-run totaly.  Eovaldi takes a big step up in class here compared to what he has been facing.  Morton has allowed 10 earned runs, 2 homers and 18 base runners in 11 1/3 innings in his last two starts to the Marlins and Mets.  

Texas is 14-1 OVER in its last 15 games following a 5-game span where they had a .285 OBP or worse.  Atlanta is 17-4 OVER in its last 21 April home games.  Morton is 24-8 OVER in his last 32 starts in the first half of the season.  The Rangers are 10-1 OVER in its last 11 games vs. NL teams scoring 5 or more runs per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Angels/Reds OVER 9

The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER 9 ticket between the Angels and Reds tonight.  There are expected to be 11 MPH winds blowing out to straightaway center at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark Saturday night.

The Reds are really a dead nuts OVER team with one of the most underrated lineups in the league plus a suspect rotation and bullpen.  They are scoring 5.4 runs per game overall including 5.6 runs per game at home.  The Angels are scoring 4.6 runs per game on the road, and they have a suspect rotation and bullpen as well.

Patrick Sandoval is 1-2 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in four starts this season, allowing 10 earned runs and 29 base runners in 17 1/3 innings despite facing a very easy schedule of opponents.  Graham Ashcraft is 2-1 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in three starts this season, allowing 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 17 1/3 innings.  Ashcraft went 7-9 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 26 starts for the Reds last season.

The OVER is 11-2 in Ashcraft's last 13 starts against teams that are outscored by 0.5 or more runs per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Cleveland Guardians -1.5 (+127)

The Oakland A's are one of the worst teams in baseball this season. T hey are hitting .207 and scoring 2.9 runs per game.  They are getting outscored by 1.5 runs per game on the season.  

The Cleveland Guardians are one of the best teams in baseball this season.  They are 14-6 and outscoring opponents by 2.3 runs per game on the year.  I'll gladly take the opportunity to get the Guardians at plus money on the Run Line to win this game by multiple runs.

I'll also gladly fade Alex Wood, who is 0-1 with an 8.10 ERA and 2.10 WHP in four starts this season, allowing 15 earned runs and 35 base runners in 16 2/3 innings.  Wood allowed 6 earned runs in 3 1/3 innings in an 8-0 loss to the Guardians on March 28th earlier this season.

Cleveland is 15-3 in its 18 meetings with Oakland over the last three seasons.  Each of their last five wins over the A's have come by 2 runs or more.  They have outscored the A's 45-14 in their last six meetings.  Bet the Guardians on the Run Line Saturday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (-145)

The Chicago White Sox are the worst team in baseball.  They are 3-16 this season while hitting .190 and scoring 2.0 runs per game and getting outscored by 3.2 runs per game.  They are without two of their best hitters right now in Robert Jr. and Moncada to make matters worse.

Instead of laying the Phillies -360 on the money line today, we'll take this massive discount on the -145 run line to win this game by two runs or more.  The Phillies are 4-0 in their last four games overall and have scored at least 5 runs in three consecutive games, including a 7-0 win over the White Sox yesterday.

The Phillies have a massive advantage on the mound today.  Zack Wheeler has posted a 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in four starts this season while allowing just 8 earned runs in 24 innings with 30 K's.

I'll gladly fade Mike Soroka, who is 0-2 with a 6.98 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in four starts this season while allowing 15 earned runs and 4 homers in 19 1/3 innings with only 10 K's.  Soroka has posted a 4.39 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in three career starts against the Phillies.

Chicago is 0-11 after losing four of its last five games this season and losing by 4.6 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Phillies on the Run Line Saturday.

15* MLB Friday Night BLOWOUT on San Diego Padres -110

The San Diego Padres should be bigger home favorites over the Toronto Bluejays tonight. Matt Waldron has been solid for the Padres, posting a 3.14 ERA in three starts this season. He has allowed just one earned run in 10 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Dodgers and Giants.

Yariel Rodriquez will be making his 2nd career start for the Bluejays. He allowed one run and 6 base runners in 3 2/3 innings to the Rockies in his first start this season. Now he takes a big step up in class here against the Padres.

San Diego is 32-13 in its last 45 games following an off day. Bet the Padres Friday.

20* Kings/Pelicans TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 219.5

Both play-in games went UNDER the total in the opening night of the playoffs and the UNDER is now 12-2 in play-in games since their inception.  Refs are letting a lot more physical contact go in these winner-take-all games.

The Kings have been a dead nuts UNDER team since losing two of their best shooters in Malik Monk and Kevin Heurter. The Kings have allowed 111 or fewer points in 20 of their last 21 games overall. The Kings have gone for 216 or fewer combined points in 12 of their last 16 games overall. They rank 6th in the NBA in defensive rating in their last 15 games.

The Pelicans have been a consistently great defensive team all season. They rank 6th in defensive rating this season and 6th since the All-Star Break. The Pelicans have allowed 112 or fewer points in 22 of their last 23 games overall. I don't see either team getting to 110 in this winner-take-all game. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rangers/Braves OVER 9.5

The Atlanta Braves are a dead nuts OVER team. They have arguably the best lineup in baseball. They are hitting .296 and scoring 6.4 runs per game this season.

The Texas Rangers rode their offense to the World Series title last year. Their offense is loaded again this season. They are scoring 5.0 runs per game this season.

Andrew Heaney is 0-2 with a 6.74 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in three starts this season, allowing 9 earned runs and 19 base runners in 12 innings. Chris Sale is 1-1 with a 4.59 ERA in three starts this season, allowing 9 earned runs in 17 2/3 innings.

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this OVER ticket. Temps will be in the 70's with light winds blowing out to left-center in Atlanta Friday night. Atlanta is 16-4 OVER in its last 20 April home games. Texas is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 games vs. NL teams scoring 5 or more runs per game. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Heat/76ers ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 208.5

Both play-in games went UNDER the total last night and the UNDER is now 12-2 in play-in games since their inception.  Refs are letting a lot more physical contact go in these winner-take-all games. And the Heat and 76ers are two dead nuts UNDER teams as it is.

The Heat rank 29th in pace and 5th in adjusted defense. The 76ers rank 18th in pace and 11th in adjusted defense. They are even better defensively with a healthy Joel Embiid in the lineup now. The Heat are even more of an UNDER team without PG Terry Rozier, who is out for this one. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NL Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Cubs/Diamondbacks OVER 9

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Chicago Cubs combined for 23 runs yesterday. It will be another slug fest today with these two terrible starting pitchers going against these two potent lineups.

Jordan Wicks is 0-2 with a 5.68 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in three starts this season, allowing 8 earned runs and 24 base runners in 12 2/3 innings. Brandon Pfaadt is 1-0 with a 6.48 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in three starts this season, allowing 12 earned runs and 3 homers in 16 2/3 innings. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* AL East GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Yankees -102

The New York Yankees will be highly motivated for a victory today. They have now lost three straight including the first two of this series to the Toronto Blue Jays. They will avoid the sweep with a victory in Game 3 today due to their massive advantage on the mound.

Marcus Stroman is one of the most underrated starters in baseball. He was great for the Cubs last year, and he has been great for the Yankees this year. Stroman is 1-1 with a 2.12 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in three starts, allowing just 4 earned runs in 17 innings. He is 0-0 with a 0.82 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in two career starts against his former team in the Blue Jays as well.

Kevin Gausman returned from injury this season and has not been on his game at all. Gausman is 0-2 with an 11.58 ERA and 1.93 WHIP in three starts this season, allowing 12 earned runs, 3 homers and 18 base runners in 9 1/3 innings. He gave up 5 earned runs and 2 homers in 1 1/3 innings to the Yankees on April 6th in one of those three starts. Bet the Yankees Wednesday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Braves/Astros OVER 9

Both the Atlanta Braves and Houston Astros are dead nuts OVER teams.  They both have suspect starting rotations but two of the best lineups in baseball.  This will be a slug fest today in Game 3 of this interleague series.

The Braves are hitting .303 and scoring 6.5 runs per game this season. The Braves are 10-5-1 OVER in all games this season.  The Astros are hitting .274 and scoring 4.5 runs per game this season, including .296 and 5.1 runs per game at home.  The OVER is 5-2 in Astros last six games overall with 11 or more combined runs in five of those seven games.

Two suspect starting pitchers square off today. Max Fried is 1-0 with a 8.74 ERA and 1.85 WHIP in three starts this season, allowing 11 earned runs and 21 base runners in 11 1/3 innings. The OVER is 3-0 in his three starts. J.P. France is 0-2 with an 8.21 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in three starts for the Astros, allowing 14 earned runs and 29 base runners in 15 1/3 innings. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Twins/Orioles OVER 8

The Baltimore Orioles are a dead nuts OVER team. They have one of the best young lineups in baseball and a mediocre rotation. They are scoring 5.9 runs per game this season and have now scored at least 5 runs in seven of their last eight games overall while going 7-0 OVER in their last seven.

The Orioles should stay hot at the plate against Pablo Lopez, who is 0-2 with a 7.45 ERA in his last two starts, allowing 8 earned runs and 16 base runners in 9 2/3 innings to Cleveland and Detroit. This is a big step up in class for Lopez today.

The Twins have scored at least 3 runs in five consecutive games and should at least match or exceed that today against Baltimore starter Tyler Wells. he is 0-2 with a 5.87 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in three starts this season, allowing 10 earned runs and 3 homers in 15 1/3 innings. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Warriors/Kings TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State ML -135

The Golden State Warriors are as healthy as they have been all season. They have been in playoff mode for a month now and are playing their best basketball of the season as a result. They have gone 10-2 SU in their last 12 games overall heading into the play-in.

The Sacramento Kings have struggled down the stretch since losing the best 6th man in the NBA in Malik Monk along with Kevin Heurter. These are also two of their best shooters. They just don't have much productive depth, and that has really hurt them.

The Kings are 2-5 SU in their last seven games overall with their two wins coming against two of the worst teams in the NBA in the Blazers and Nets.

The Warriors knocked the Kings out of the playoffs last season and they have their number. I trust their championship pedigree to get the job done tonight especially since they are the healthier, more confident team playing the better basketball in this winner-take-all. Bet the Warriors on the Money Line Tuesday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nationals/Dodgers OVER 9

I love fading Patrick Corbin.  He has been one of the worst starters in baseball over the last 5 years.  He went 2-7 with a 4.66 ERA in 2020, 9-16 with a 5.82 ERA in 2021, 6-19 with a 6.31 ERA in 2022 and 10-15 with a 5.20 ERA in 2023.  He is off to another rough start this season, going 0-2 with an 8.44 ERA and 1.94 WHIP in three starts while allowing 15 earned runs and 31 base runners in 16 innings.

The Dodgers are capable of covering this OVER 9 on their own. They are scoring 5.9 runs per game at home this season with one of the best lineups in baseball. But the Nationals should contribute as well as they have scored 6 runs each in their last two games. The Dodgers are likely to make this a bullpen game and their bullpen has not been sharp.

The Dodgers are 7-0 OVER following two of more consecutive home games this season. The Dodgers are 8-2-2 OVER in all home games this season. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Interleague Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Reds/Mariners OVER 7

This total is so low because the Mariners' offense has been so bad.  But I think they will do enough to help get this one up and OVER this tiny 7-run total.  The Reds are capable of covering this total on their own as well.

The Cincinnati Reds have one of the best lineups in the National League.  They are scoring 5.8 runs per game overall, 6.3 runs per game on the road and 6.8 runs per game against right-handed starters. They will have success against Logan Gilbert tonight.

The Mariners broke out for 9 runs yesterday against the Reds. They should back it up with another big effort at the plate against the wild Hunter Greene, who is 0-1 with a 4.86 ERA in three starts this season while allowing 9 earned runs in 16 2/3 innings.

Cincinnati is 12-4 OVER in all games this season and a dead nuts OVER team. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Braves/Astros OVER 9.5

Both the Atlanta Braves and Houston Astros are dead nuts OVER teams.  They both have suspect starting rotations but two of the best lineups in baseball.  This will be a slug fest tonight in Game 2 of this interleague series.

The Braves are hitting .303 and scoring 6.5 runs per game this season, including .321 and 7.1 runs per game against right-handed starters.  The Braves are 10-4-1 OVER in all games this season.  The Astros are hitting .274 and scoring 4.5 runs per game this season, including .296 and 5.1 runs per game at home.  The OVER is 5-1 in Astros last six games overall with 11 or more combined runs in five of those six games.

Hunter Brown is 0-2 with a 16.43 ERA and 3.91 WHIP in three starts this season.  He has already allowed 14 earned runs and 30 base runners in 7 2/3 innings.  This after going 11-13 with a 5.09 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 29 starts and two relief appearances in 2023.  It's hard to believe the Astros are sticking with him in the rotation. The Braves are capable of covering this total on their own. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Baltimore Orioles -152

The Minnesota Twins are terrible offensively largely due to missing three of their best hitters in Lewis, Correa and Kepler.  They are hitting .194 and scoring 3.5 runs per game this season.

The Baltimore Orioles have one of the best lineups in baseball.  They are scoring 5.6 runs per game overall and 6.2 runs per game against right-handed starters.

The Orioles have a big advantage on the mound today behind Grayson Rodriquez, who is 2-0 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in three starts this season. Chris Paddack cannot stay healthy and is 0-0 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.85 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing 4 earned runs, 2 homers and 16 base runners in 8 2/3 innings. Bet the Orioles Tuesday.

15* Interleague Monday Total DOMINATOR on Reds/Mariners OVER 7

This total is so low because the Mariners' offense has been so bad.  But I think they will do enough to help get this one up and OVER this tiny 7-run total.  The Reds are capable of covering this total on their own as well.

The Cincinnati Reds have one of the best lineups in the National League.  They are scoring 6.0 runs per game overall, 6.8 runs per game on the road and 7.2 runs per game against right-handed starters.

George Kirby is one of the most overrated starters in baseball.  Kirby is 1-2 with an 8.16 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in three starts this season, allowing 13 earned runs and 22 base runners in 14 1/3 innings.  The red-hot hitting Reds will have their way with him as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati Reds +134

The Cincinnati Reds have one of the best lineups in the National League.  They are scoring 6.0 runs per game overall, 6.8 runs per game on the road and 7.2 runs per game against right-handed starters.  They have a massive advantage at the plate over the Seattle Mariners tonight.

The Mariners are hitting .204 and scoring 3.1 runs per game overall, including .193 and 2.4 runs per game at home.  They'll be up against Frankie Montas, who has been a pleasant surprise for the Reds.  Montas is 2-1 with a 2.16 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in three starts this season, allowing just 4 earned runs in 16 2/3 innings.

George Kirby is one of the most overrated starters in baseball.  Kirby is 1-2 with an 8.16 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in three starts this season, allowing 13 earned runs and 22 base runners in 14 1/3 innings.  The red-hot hitting Reds will have their way with him as well.  Bet the Reds Monday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Astros/Braves OVER 10

Both the Atlanta Braves and Houston Astros are dead nuts OVER teams.  They both have suspect starting rotations but two of the best lineups in baseball.  This will be a slug fest tonight in Game 1 of this interleague series.

The Braves are hitting .303 and scoring 6.5 runs per game this season, including .324 and 7.2 runs per game against right-handed starters.  The Braves are 10-3-1 OVER in all games this season.  The Astros are hitting .277 and scoring 4.7 runs per game this season, including .305 and 5.5 runs per game at home.  The OVER is 5-0 in Astros last five games overall with 11 or more combined runs in all five games.

Darius Vines will be making his first start of the season for the Braves and only his 3rd career start overall.  Spencer Arrighetti will be making just his 2nd career start.  His first was a disaster as he allowed 7 earned runs and 10 base runners in 3 innings of an 11-2 loss to the Royals on April 10th.  Both offenses will have their way with these two young, overmatched starters.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas City Royals -158

The Chicago White Sox are the worst team in baseball right now in their current state.  They are 2-13 this season while hitting .200 and scoring 2.3 runs per game, including 1-7 at home where they are hitting .170 and scoring 2.0 runs per game.

A big reason for their offensive struggles is that they are missing three of their best hitters in Robert Jr., Jimenez and Moncada.  It won't get any easier for them today against Seth Lugo, who is 2-0 with a 1.45 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in three starts this season, allowing just 3 earned runs and zero homers in 18 2/3 innings.  Lugo faced the White Sox on April 4th, allowing one earned run in 6 2/3 innings of a 10-1 victory.

Nick Nastrini will be making his first career start for the White Sox.  He went 9-5 with a 4.08 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 114 2/3 innings in the minors last season almost all of which came at the AA level.  He is 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA and 2.14 WHIP in two starts at AAA this season, allowing 6 earned runs, 15 base runners and 2 homers in 7 innings.

The Royals are 10-6 this season and scoring 5.3 runs per game and one of the most improved teams in baseball.  Kansas City is 6-0 in its last six meetings with Chicago.  Bet the Royals Monday.

20* AL GAME OF THE WEEK on Baltimore Orioles -124

The Minnesota Twins are terrible offensively largely due to missing three of their best hitters in Lewis, Correa and Kepler.  They are hitting .185 and scoring 3.5 runs per game this season.  They are hitting .190 and scoring 2.7 runs per game against left-handed starters.

The Baltimore Orioles have one of the best lineups in baseball.  They are scoring 5.5 runs per game overall and 6.1 runs per game against right-handed starters.  I think this is a pretty evenly-matched game with the starting pitchers, but he Orioles have a huge advantage at the plate and should be bigger favorites as a result.

I'll gladly fade Louie Varland, who is 5-7 with a 4.81 ERA in 17 starts and 7 relief appearances in the majors.  Varland is 0-4 with a 9.38 ERA in his last four starts, allowing 25 earned runs and 8 homers in 24 innings.  

Cole Irvin has allowed 3 earned runs and no homers in 18 innings for a 1.50 ERA in his last three starts against Minnesota.  Bet the Orioles Monday.

20* Padres/Dodgers ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 8.5

The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER 8.5 ticket.  There are expected to be 11 MPH winds blowing out to right-center tonight in Los Angeles.  This is a matchup between two of the most potent lineups in baseball, especially the Dodgers.

The Dodgers are hitting .283 and scoring 6.4 runs per game at home this season.  The Padres are scoring 5.3 runs per game overall including 5.5 runs per game on the road.

Yu Darvish allowed 4 earned runs in 3 innings to the Cubs in his last start in a 9-8 win.  James Paxton takes a big step up in class here making his 3rd start of the season after getting to face the Twins and Giants in his first two starts.  Both starters are getting too much respect tonight.  

The OVER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings between the Padres and Dodgers with 10 or more combined runs in eight of those 11 meetings. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Western Conference Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Clippers OVER 220.5

The Houston Rockets are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 8-0 OVER in their last eight games overall with 223 or more combined points in seven of those eight games.  They are also 14-2 OVER in their last 16 games overall dating back further.

The Clippers are locked in to the No. 4 seed in the West with nothing to play for.  That means their backups are going to be getting a lot of run, and this is one of the deepest teams in the NBA.  It also means there will be zero defensive intensity on their end.  This one has shootout written all over it as a result.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder -19.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder have gone 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall to put themselves in position to clinch the No. 1 seed in the West.  They will clinch the No. 1 seed with a win today, and will be max motivated to do so.

The Dallas Mavericks are locked in to the No. 5 seed in the West.  They are one of the few Western Conference teams that are locked into their seeding.  As a result, they are resting all of their best players in Doncic, Irving, Lively II, Gafford, Washington, Jones Jr., Exum and Kleber.

It did not go well for the Mavericks last game without Doncic and Irving as they lost outright as 11-point home favorites to the Pistons 107-89, failing to cover the spread by 29 points.  But they even had four of those players that are sitting today playing in that game.  They will have arguably the worst lineup in the entire NBA playing today, and I don't see them staying within 20 points of the Thunder as a result.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies +13.5

The Denver Nuggets blew the No. 1 seed by losing 121-120 at the buzzer to the Spurs as 11.5-point favorites last game.  They are now in a 3-way tie with the Thunder and Timberwolves for 1st place in the West with one game to go.  But they lose the tiebreaker to both teams.

The problem is the Thunder are 19.5-point favorites over the Mavericks, who are sitting everyone today.  The Nuggets know they have no shot at the No. 1 seed, so they are likely to rest everyone today.  Jokic, Murray, Porter Jr., Gordon, Caldwell-Pope and several others are all questionable, but my anticipation is they sit.

The Nuggets have no business being 13.5-point road favorites over the Grizzlies without these guys.  This is what the line would be if they were all playing.  The Grizzlies continue to show up every night, which was the case last time out in their 123-120 loss to the Lakers are 16-point dogs.  This is a gritty team with a bunch of young players playing with something to prove.  LaRavia, Jackson, Goodwin and Pippen Jr. all scored 23 or more points against the Lakers.  Bet the Grizzlies Sunday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Royals/Mets OVER 8

The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER 8 ticket.  Temps will be in the 60's with 17 MPH winds blowing out to straightaway center at Citi Field in New York this afternoon.  Those winds will get up to 23 MPH as the game progresses.

The Royals are hitting the cover off the ball right now.  They are scoring 9.0 runs per game in their last four games.  The Mets are also heating up at the dish, scoring 8.4 runs per game in their last five games.  So both teams are averaging more than this 8-run total on their own here of late.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Braves/Marlins OVER 8.5

The Atlanta Braves have arguably the best lineup in baseball.  They are hitting .301 and scoring 6.3 runs per game this season.  The Miami Marlins have gotten their bats going finally of late scoring 5, 5, and 10 runs in three of their last six games.

Charlie Morton was rocked for 4 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings in a 8-7 loss to the Mets in his last start.  He was also rocked for 6 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of a 16-2 loss to the Marlins in his last start against them.

Jesus Luzardo is off to a disastrous start this season.  He posted a 5.25 ERA in spring training while allowing 3 homers in 12 innings.  Luzardo has been even worse in the regular season, going 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA and 1.53 WHIP while allowing 12 earend runs and 4 homers in 15 innings.

The OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the Marlins and Braves with 9 or more combined runs in eight of those 10 games.  The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Miami with 9 or more combined runs in six of the seven.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Interleague Total DOMINATOR on Brewers/Orioles OVER 8.5

The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER ticket between the Brewers and Orioles today.  Temps will be in the 70's with 14 MPH winds blowing out to left-center at game time.  Those wins increase to 18 MPH throughout the game.

The Brewers are hitting .289 and scoring 6.7 runs per game this season, including .307 and 7.5 runs per game on the road.  The Orioles have one of the best young lineups in baseball scoring 5.4 runs per game overall, including 6.1 runs per game against right-handed starters.  Both teams will have their way at the plate today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Celtics OVER 227

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 1st in the NBA in pace and 28th in defensive rating.  The OVER is 6-1 in Wizards last seven games overall with 230 or more combined points in five of their last six.  This is a very low total for a game involving the Wizards.

The Celtics have rested their starters and will rest them again today.  But these backups are great offensively and terrible defensively.  They will be looking to get as many shots up as possible as this could be their final significant playing time.  The Celtics scored 131 points last game with their backups and will hang another big number on the Wizards, who I expect to keep pace.

The Celtics have really let go of the rope defensively since clinching the No. 1 seed in the East.  The OVER is 10-3 in Celtics last 13 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington Wizards +9.5

The Washington Wizards continue to show up.  They have just one loss by more than 9 points in their last 12 games.  That makes for an 11-1 system backing the Wizards pertaining to this 9.5-point spread.

The Boston Celtics have announced they will be resting their 6 best players in White, Tatum, Porzingis, Horford, Holiday and Brown.  Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us without these six guys is asking too much.  Bet the Wizards Sunday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Cubs -135

The Chicago Cubs will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing two straight including the opener 4-2 in Game 1 of this series to the Mariners.  I expect them to bounce back in a big way due to their massive advantage on the mound tonight.

Shota Imanaga has been as advertised this season coming over from Japan.  He is 10 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.40 WHIP while pitching 10 shutout innings and allowing only 4 base runners in 12 K's.  He will shut down the light-hitting Mariners, who are hitting .197 and scoring 2.6 runs per game at home this season.

Emerson Hancock has been roughed up for the Mariners.  He is 1-1 with an 11.42 ERA and 1.96 WHIP in two starts, allowing 11 earned runs, 3 homers and 17 base runners in 8 2/3 innings.  The Cubs will rough him up tonight as well.  Bet the Cubs Saturday.

20* NL West TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Padres/Dodgers OVER 9

The Dodgers are hitting .268 and scoring 5.5 runs per game this season, including .285 and 6.6 runs per game at home.  The Padres are hitting .256 and scoring 5.5 runs per game this season, including .268 and 6.2 runs per game on the road.  This total of 9 is simply too low for a game involving the Padres and Dodgers' potent lineups.

Matt Waldron is 1-4 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in eight starts and two relief appearances in his career in the big leagues.  He has already allowed 10 homers in 50 2/3 innings.  Gavin Stone has not been good for the Dodgers, allowing 8 earned runs and 12 base runners in 8 innings in two starts this season.  Both bullpens are struggling as well with the Dodgers having a 4.60 ERA and the Padres a 4.55 ERA thus far.

There are expected to be 14 MPH winds blowing out to right-center tonight in Los Angeles that will help aid us in cashing this OVER ticket.  The OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the Padres and Dodgers with 10 or more combined runs in eight of those 10 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Braves/Marlins OVER 8.5

The Atlanta Braves are hitting .310 and scoring 6.7 runs per game this season behind arguably the best lineup in baseball.  They are hitting .341 and scoring 8.1 runs per game against right-handed starters as well.  They should get to righty Max Meyer, who will be making just his 5th career start today for the Marlins.

The OVER is 9-2-1 in Braves 12 games this season with 9 or more combined runs in 10 of those 12 games.  The Braves will do the heavy lifting in us cashing this OVER ticket, but I also expect the Marlins to have some success against Chris Sale and this shaky Atlanta bullpen.  The Marlins have a 5.97 ERA as a bullpen and the Braves have a 4.24 ERA.

The OVER is 8-1 in the last nine meetings between the Marlins and Braves with 9 or more combined runs in eight of those nine games.  The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings in Miami with 9 or more combined runs in all six.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Brewers/Orioles Interleague ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8.5

The forecast looks good for a high-scoring affair between the Brewers and Orioles today.  Temps will be in the 60's with 24 MPH winds blowing out to right.  Both offenses should have their way in this one.

The Milwaukee Brewers are a much better offensive team than they get credit for.  They are hitting .283 and scoring 6.3 runs per game this season, including .300 and 7.0 runs per game on the road.  They have now scored 12, 8, 9, 7 and 11 runs in their last five games coming in, and the OVER is 7-1 in Brewers last eight games overall.

The Baltimore Orioles are scoring 5.5 runs per game this season.  They have one of the best lineups in baseball and it's only going to keep getting better as they call up guys throughout the season.  They have scored 7 or more runs in three of their last four games overall.

DL Hall is 4-2 with a 4.46 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in his three seasons in the big leagues.  He has allowed 21 earned runs in 42 1/3 innings.  Dean Kremer is 22-20 with a 4.28 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in his five seasons in the big leagues.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Reds/White Sox Interleague Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7.5

This is a very low total for a game involving the Cincinnati Reds.  They have one of the more underrated lineups in baseball.  They are scoring 5.7 runs per game overall including 6.2 runs per game on the road.  They will do the heavy lifting in us cashing this OVER ticket.

That happened yesterday with the Reds winning 11-1 over the White Sox.  I expect Chicago to have much more success at the plate today.  They will be up against Nick Lodolo, who will be making his first start since May 6th of last season due to injury.  Lodolo went 2-1 with a 6.29 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in seven starts last season, allowing 10 homers in 34 1/3 innings.  He will be on a pitch count today.

Garrett Crochet is getting a lot of hype for the White Sox, but he has already allowed 2 homers in 12 innings in his two starts this season.  The Reds will be able to get to him enough to get this one OVER this short 7.5-run total.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix Suns -4.5

I love the spot for the Phoenix Suns tonight.  They sit in 7th place in the West just one game behind the Pelicans for the 6th seed.  They own the tiebreaker over the Pelicans, who have to play on the road against the Warriors tonight.  The Suns are highly motivated to get out of the play-in and get that 6th seed.

The Suns are fully healthy right now and playing up to their potential.  They are 8-4 SU & 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They will be the fresher team tonight as they had yesterday off, while the Kings will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.

The Kings are running out of gas and out of bodies.  They are 1-4 SU in their last five games overall with their only win coming against the lowly Nets.  They are without Malik Monk and Kevin Heurter right now to really hurt their depth and shooting.  Fox played nearly 41 minutes last night, while Murray played 36, Barnes 33 and Sabonis 35.  They won't have anything left in the tank for the Suns tonight.  Bet the Suns Friday.

20* Padres/Dodgers NL West Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 8

The wind is blowing out in almost every MLB game today.  That's a big reason for my high volume of MLB OVERS on Friday, and it applies to this game as well.  The forecast is calling for temps in the 60's with 13 MPH winds blowing out to left-center in Los Angeles tonight. The wind will aid us in cashing this OVER ticket.

The Dodgers are hitting .277 and scoring 5.4 runs per game this season, including .304 and 6.5 runs per game at home.  The Padres are hitting .257 and scoring 5.3 runs per game this season, including .277 and 5.7 runs per game on the road.  This total of 8 is simply too low for a game involving the Padres and Dodgers' potent lineups.

Michael Kings has already allowed 11 walks in 14 2/3 innings this season for the Padres and has control issues.  The Padres already rocked Yoshinobu Yamamoto in his first start this season where he allowed 5 earned runs in one inning of a 15-11 loss to San Diego.

The OVER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings with 10 or more combined runs in seven of those nine meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Minnesota Timberwolves -12.5

The Atlanta Hawks have nothing to play for.  They are locked in to the 10th spot and the play-in and will have a road game against the Bulls, who they lose out on the tiebreaker to.  Their only concern is getting healthy for the play-in round now as they are dealing with a plethora of injuries.

Indeed, the Hawks are without Bey, Griffin, Johnson and Okongwu.  Dejounte Murray sat out last game with a quad injury and likely won't pay again.  Trae Young just returned from injury and they could be cautious with him as well.  I expect a very poor effort from the Hawks tonight with a lot of backups getting playing time.

The Minnesota Timberwolves still have a lot to play for.  They are tied with the Thunder for the 2nd seed and they are one game behind the Nuggets for the top seed in the West.  They are now fully healthy with Karl-Anthony Towns expected to return from his knee injury tonight.  They are going 'all in' to win their final two games and get the best seed possible.  I'll gladly back the healthier, more motivated team tonight laying the big number.  Bet the Timberwolves Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Raptors +15

The Miami Heat are content with being the 8th seed and in the play-in.  They trail the 76ers by one game for the 7th seed, and the 76ers host the Magic and Nets to close out the season and are likely to win both those games.  They trail the Pacers and Magic by two games with two to go for the 5th and 6th seeds.  They know they are essentially locked in to the 8th seed.

The Heat played like it in their last game as they lost 111-92 at home to the Dallas Mavericks.  Duncan Robinson is out Friday and Terry Rozier is questionable.  I wouldn't be surprised to see more starters sit for the Heat tonight as their main focus now is to just get healthy for the playoffs.

The Heat have no business being 15-point favorites over anyone right now given their situation.  The Raptors continue to battle and have a healthy Emmanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett in the lineup right now, plus could get back Gary Trent Jr. and Bruce Brown.  The Raptors are 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall including an outright win at Milwaukee as 14.5-point dogs.  They only lost by 4 as 11.5-point road dogs at Brooklyn despite being short-handed in their last game.  They will show up again tonight and give Miami a run for its money.

The Raptors are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Heat.  Bet the Raptors Friday.

15* MLB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (-109)

The Chicago White Sox are a mess.  They are 2-10 this season and scoring just 2.4 runs per game.  They are without three of their best hitters right now to boot due to injury in Robert Jr., Jimenez and Moncada.

The Cincinnati Reds will be highly motivated for a victory coming off two consecutive losses.  The Reds have one of the best lineups in baseball, and they have a big advantage on the mound over the White Sox today.

Andrew Abbott is 8-7 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 23 career starts for the Reds.  He'll be opposed by Chris Flexen, who is 27-36 with a 4.97 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in seven seasons in the big leagues.  He went 2-8 with a 6.86 ERA and 1.67 WHIP last season, and he is 0-2 with a 5.91 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing 7 earned runs and 17 base runners in 10 2/3 innings. Flexen allowed 7 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of a 14-4 loss to the Reds in his lone career start against them.

The wind is expected to be blowing out to center at 20 MPH tonight in Chicago which will aid the Reds in scoring runs and winning this game by multiple runs.  Bet the Reds on the Run Line Friday.

15* Interleague Friday Total DOMINATOR on Reds/White Sox OVER 9

The wind is blowing out in almost every MLB game today.  That's a big reason for my high volume of MLB OVERS on Friday, and it applies to this game as well.  The forecast is calling for temps in the 50's with 20 MPH winds blowing out to center at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago tonight.  The wind will aid us in cashing this OVER ticket.

Chris Flexen is 27-36 with a 4.97 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in seven seasons in the big leagues.  He went 2-8 with a 6.86 ERA and 1.67 WHIP last season, and he is 0-2 with a 5.91 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing 7 earned runs and 17 base runners in 10 2/3 innings.  Flexen allowed 7 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of a 14-4 loss to the Reds in his lone career start against them.  The Reds may cover this OVER on their own off Flexen.

Despite some injuries in their lineup, the White Sox have managed to score 6 and 7 runs in their last two games against the Guardians coming into this one.  I think they'll do enough at the plate against Andrew Abbott and this rough Cincinnati bullpen to contribute to us cashing this OVER.  

The OVER is 4-1 in Reds last five games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +10.5

The Boston Celtics have nothing to play for right now.  They locked up the No. 1 seed in the East several games ago and have been just going through the motions since.  They are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall and their last two games just showed how little they cared.

The Celtics lost 104-91 at Milwaukee as 3.5-point dogs on Tuesday before falling 118-109 as 3-point home favorites to New York on Thursday.  The Celtics tailed by 29 to the Knicks heading into the 4th quarter before they called the dogs off.  Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.

The Celtics have no business being favored by double-digits against anyone in this spot.  Their only goal right now is to get healthy for the playoffs.  They aren't concerned with blowing out Charlotte with two games to go in the regular season.  Even if they play their starters they have been resting those starters in the 4th quarter and will likely do so again.

Charlotte is 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Hornets upset the Magic 124-115 as 12-point dogs, upset the Hawks 115-114 as 9.5-point dogs and took the Thunder to the wire in a 3-point loss as 7.5-point dogs.  They have not quit, and they will relish this opportunity to try and knock off the top team in the East.  They will clearly be the more motivated team, and motivation means a lot in the NBA.  Bet the Hornets Friday.

15* NL Friday Total DOMINATOR on Braves/Marlins OVER 8.5

The Atlanta Braves are a dead nuts OVER team with a suspect rotation with the loss of Spencer Strider to a season-ending injury and one of the best lineups in baseball.  The Braves are hitting .303 and scoring 6.6 runs per game this season while going 8-2-1 OVER in their 11 games this season.

The Miami Marlins are allowing 5.9 runs per game and the Braves at likely to hang a big number on them.  But the Marlins did put up 5 runs against the Yankees in their last game and I expect them to have some success at the plate tonight as well.

Max Fried has been dreadful this season.  He went 0-1 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in four spring training starts, and it has carried over into the regular season.  Fried has posted an 18.00 ear and 3.20 WHIP in two starts while allowing 10 earned runs and 16 base runners in 5 innings.

Trevor Rogers has bene awful the last three years.  He went 4-11 with a 5.47 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 23 starts in 2022.  He only made four starts in 2023 with a 4.00 ERA.  He is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.90 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing 6 earned runs and 19 base runners in 10 innings.

The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Braves and Marlins with 9 or more combined runs in seven of those eight games.  The last three meetings in Miami saw 18, 16 and 15 combined runs.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Royals/Mets Interleague ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8

The wind is blowing out in almost every MLB game today.  That's a big reason for my high volume of MLB OVERS on Friday, and it applies to this game as well.  The forecast is calling for temps in the upper-50's with 22 MPH winds blowing out to right-center at Citi Field in New York tonight.  The wind will aid us in cashing this OVER ticket.

The Royals are hot at the plate scoring 13 and 11 runs in their last two games coming in.  The Mets are hot as well scoring a total of 29 runs in their three games at Atlanta last series.  Both teams should stay hot at the dish today with the favorable forecast for hitters.

Michael Wache has been solid the last two years but he did get roughed up by the Orioles before shutting down the lowly White Sox.  Luis Severino has not been sharp allowing 8 runs, 4 earned, and 16 base runners in 10 innings this season.  Severino has allowed 12 earned runs and 25 base runners in 15 innings in his last three starts against Kansas City.  Wacha has allowed 10 earned runs and 21 base runners in 14 2/3 innings in his last three starts against the Mets.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas City Royals +112

This is a classic case of the wrong team being favored.  The Kansas City Royals are grossly undervalued this season.  They are 9-4 this season and scoring 5.5 runs per game.  They just put up 13 and 11 runs in back-to-back wins over the Astros and have now won seven consecutive games.

They will make it 8 in a row against the Mets, who are 5-7 this season.  The Royals have a big advantage on the mound today with Michael Wacha over Luis Severino.  Wacha went 11-2 with a 3.32 ERA in 23 starts in 2022 for the Red Sox and 14-4 with a 3.22 ERA in 2023 for the Padres.  It has been more of the same for the Royals as Wacha is 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.58 WHIP in two starts this season.

Luis Severino went 4-8 with a 6.65 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in 18 starts for the Yankees last season.  Severino is 0-1 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in two starts this season.  Severino has allowed 12 earned runs and 25 base runners in 15 innings in his last three starts against Kansas City.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Royals Friday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Brewers/Orioles OVER 8

The wind is blowing out in almost every MLB game today.  That's a big reason for my high volume of MLB OVERS on Friday, and it applies to this game as well.  The forecast is calling for temps in the 60's with 21 MPH winds blowing out to right-center in Baltimore tonight.  The wind will aid us in cashing this OVER ticket.

The Milwaukee Brewers are a much better offensive team than they get credit for.  They are hitting .275 and scoring 5.9 runs per game this season, including .290 and 6.3 runs per game on the road.  They have now scored 12, 8, 9 and 7 runs in their last four games coming in, and the OVER is 6-1 in Brewers last seven games overall.

The Baltimore Orioles are scoring 5.8 runs per game this season.  They have one of the best lineups in baseball and it's only going to keep getting better as they call up guys throughout the season.  They have scored 9, 7 and 7 runs in their last three games overall.

Tyler Wells has allowed at least 3 earned runs in each of his last five starts.  Freddy Peralta has allowed at least 3 earned runs in three of his last four.  I expect both teams to score 4-plus runs tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Pirates/Phillies OVER 9

The wind is blowing out in almost every MLB game today.  That's a big reason for my high volume of MLB OVERS on Friday, and it applies to this game as well.  The forecast is calling for temps in the 60's with 18 MPH winds blowing out to right-center in Philadelphia tonight. The wind will aid us in cashing this OVER ticket.

Bailey Falter is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He is 10-14 with a 4.80 ERA in his career in the big leagues.  He went 2-9 with a 5.36 ERA and 1.41 WHIP last season, and he is 0-0 with a 5.40 ERA in two starts this season while allowing 6 earned runs and 2 homers in 10 innings.

Cristopher Sanchez is 6-8 with a 4.18 ERA in his career in the big leagues.  He is 0-1 with a 4.82 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing 5 earned runs and 15 base runners in 9 1/3 innings.  

The OVER is 4-0 in Falter's last four starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Pelicans/Kings TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +1

The New Orleans Pelicans have a lot to play for tonight.  They currently sit in 6th place in the West but just 0.5 games ahead of the 7th place Suns and the play-in.  They are playing with a sense of urgency right now beating those Suns 113-105 as 6-point road dogs and beating the Blazers by double-digits on the road in their last two games coming in.

The Pelicans are the much healthier team than the Kings right now.  The Pelicans have all hands on deck outside Brandon Ingram, who has been out for about a month.  He could return tonight, but I like the Pelicans either way.

The Kings are without two of their best shooters in Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter.  If it's not them it's Keegan Murray, who is also questionable to play tonight.  The Kings have really struggled since losing Monk, going 1-3 SU in their last four games overall with their lone win coming against the lowly Nets.  They return home from a 4-game road trip and will be playing in their 5th different city in 8 days.

The Pelicans own the Kings this season.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the four meetings with four blowout wins despite being underdogs in all four.  They won by 33, 10, 5 and 36 points for an average margin of victory of 21 points per game.  This is clearly a terrible matchup for the Kings, and that's even when they were healthy.  That's not the case any more, and the wrong team is favored here tonight.  Bet the Pelicans Thursday.

20* Knicks/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on New York -2.5

The New York Knicks are back to full strength outside of Julius Randle and playing well.  They beat the Bucks 122-109 as 4.5-point road dogs and followed it up with a 128-117 win at Chicago as 4.5-point favorites in their last two games coming in.  Their solid play will continue tonight in Boston.

The reason the Knicks are favored on the road here is because they have a lot to play for, while the Celtics are locked in to the No. 1 seed in the East with nothing to play for.  The Knicks sit in 3rd place in the East just 1.5 games behind the Bucks and only 1.5 games ahead of the Pacers for the 6th spot.  They have a lot at stake here.

The Celtics have been going through the motions here down the stretch in going 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They have six key players listed as questionable tonight in Tatum, Brown, Holiday, Porzingis, Horford and Tillman.  Their only focus the rest of the way is to get healthy for a playoff run.  Bet the Knicks Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas City Royals +123

This is a classic case of the wrong team being favored.  The Kansas City Royals are grossly undervalued this season.  They are 8-4 this season and scoring 4.9 runs per game.  They are 7-2 at home and scoring 5.3 runs per game.

The Houston Astros are 4-9 this season and scoring just 4.0 runs per game.  The Astros are 2-4 on the road and scoring 3.7 runs per game.  Not only has this Kansas City offense been better, but I think the Royals have a big advantage on the mound today.

Hunter Brown went 11-13 with a 5.09 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 29 starts last season.  Brown has been terrible to start 2024, allowing 5 earned runs and 18 base runners in 7 innings for a 6.43 ERA and 2.57 WHIP through two starts.  Brown allowed 6 earned runs and 4 homers in 3 innings in his lone career start against the Royals last season.

Brady Singer is off to a tremendous start for the Royals this season.  He is 1-0 with a 0.68 ERA and 0.525 WHIP in two starts, allowing just on earned run and 7 base runners in 13 1/3 innings with 14 K's.  The Royals are 5-0 in their last five meetings and 7-1 in their last eight meetings with the Astros with all seven wins as underdogs.  Wrong team favored again.  Bet the Royals Thursday.

15* Suns/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -4

I love the spot for the Phoenix Suns tonight.  They are coming off an embarrassing 105-92 road loss to the Clippers last night.  They fell behind 35-4 in the 1st quarter to open the game and did a good job just to get back in it.  They shot 33.7% as a team and that's not going to happen again.

The Suns don't have to wait long for revenge as they meet in Los Angeles for the rematch tonight.  They need this game more as they sit in 7th place in the West and currently in the play-in and one game behind the Pelicans for 6th place.  They have a lot more to play for here tonight.

The Clippers are now locked in to the 4th or 5th seed.  They will likely play the Dallas Mavericks in the first round, who trail them by two games.  They don't care about home-court advantage.  They are without Kawhi Leonard and could be without James Harden again.  Meanwhile, the Suns could get back Jusuf Nurkic, but I like them to win and cover tonight no matter who plays.

The Suns have been a resilient team going 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.  They are coming off two consecutive losses and haven't lost three straight games since December 19-25.  Bet the Suns Wednesday.

20* Timberwolves/Nuggets ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 213.5

Defensive intensity will be high between the Nuggets and Timberwolves tonight.  1st place in the West is on the line with both teams tied at 55-24 this season with three games to go.  And these are two of the best defensive teams in the league as it is with the Timberwolves ranking 1st in defensive rating and the Nuggets 8th.

Both teams prefer to play slow as well with the Nuggets ranking 26th in pace and the Timberwolves 21st.  Both teams will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and will be tired as a result, which will also help slow down the tempo.

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and this will be the 4th meeting this season between the Nuggets and Timberwolves.  They have combined for 201, 227 and 209 points in their first three meetings.  I think this one stays well UNDER the posted total of 213.5 tonight for all these reasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Brewers/Reds OVER 8.5

The Cincinnati Reds play in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball.  They are a dead nuts OVER team as it is with one of the best lineups in baseball and an awful rotation and bullpen.  The Reds are 8-3 OVER in their 11 games htis season while scoring 5.5 runs per game overall including 5.9 runs per game at home.

The Milwaukee Brewers have a much better lineup than they get credit for.  They are hitting .283 and scoring 5.8 runs per game this season, including .307 and 6.2 runs per game on the road.  The first two meetings in this series saw 18 and 14 combined runs, and it will be more of the same today.

Wade Miley is returning from a shoulder injury and will be making his first start of the season.  I don't expect him to go very deep in this one.  Hunter Greene is a loose cannon for the Reds with good K's but a lot of walks.  He is 9-20 with a 4.53 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 48 starts in the big leagues with 43 homers and 101 walks in 248 1/3 innings.  Greene has allowed 4 homers and 9 walks in 15 1/3 innings in his last three starts against Milwaukee.  Bet the OVER In this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Magic/Bucks UNDER 216.5

The Orlando Magic are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank 27th in pace and 3rd in defensive rating.  The Milwaukee Bucks have trended UNDER since Doc Rivers took over.  Now they will be without Giannis after he suffered a calf injury last night in a 104-91 home win over the Celtics.

Defensive intensity should be high for this one with the Bucks sitting two games ahead of the Magic for 2nd place in the East, and these teams meeting twice in their final three games to decide it.  Both teams will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back as well, so I don't look for either to be running much, and this one will be played in the half court.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Nets OVER 222

The Toronto Raptors are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall with 239 or more combined points in five of those seven games, and 228 or more in six of them.  They are playing no defense right now allowing 122 or more points in six of those seven games.

Neither the Nets nor the Raptors will be interested in playing defense tonight.  The Raptors get Immanuel Quickley back tonight making them even more of an OVER team.  The Nets are expected to have Cam Johnson in the lineup after sitting out last game.  This is a very low total for a game involving the Raptors right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Early ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-110)

The Minnesota Twins are struggling right now without 3B Royce Lewis.  He is hitting .313 with a .369 OBP and a .564 SLG entering his 3rd season in Minnesota.  The Twins are 1-6 in their last seven games overall and have been held to 2 runs or fewer in five of the six losses, and 3 in the other.  They are hitting .181 and scoring 2.9 runs per game on the season.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have arguably the best lineup in baseball.  They are hitting .278 and scoring 5.6 runs per game this season, including .298 and 6.4 runs per game against right-handed starters.  They have a big advantage at the plate and the advantage on the mound today.

Bobby Miller went 11-4 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 22 starts last season for the Dodgers.  He shut down the Cardinals in his first start, but the Cubs did get to him in his second start.  Now he takes a big step down in class here against the light-hitting Twins.

Chris Paddack hasn't been healthy since 2021.  He posted a 5.07 ERA in 2021, a 4.03 ERA in 22 1/3 innings in 2022 and a 5.40 ERA in 5 innings in 2023.  Paddack allowed 2 earned runs and 8 base runners in 4 innings to the Brewers in his first start this season.  He has allowed 13 earned runs and 3 homers in 11 2/3 innings in his last three starts against the Dodgers.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Wednesday.

25* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Pelicans -10

The New Orleans Pelicans are in 7th place in the West and currently in the play-in if the season were to end today.  But they are tied with the 6th place Suns and losing out on the tiebreaker.  They have a lot to play for here down the stretch, so they won't be taking the Portland Trail Blazers lightly tonight.

The Pelicans have played their best basketball on the road this season.  They just got back Jose Alvarado from injury and Zion Williamson showed he was healthy in their 113-105 upset win at Phoenix as 5.5-point dogs last time out.  They are only missing Brandon Ingram now, and he is scheduled to return soon.  They don't need him to crush the Blazers.

The Blazers are without their three best players in Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant and Malcom Brogdon.  They have gone 2-11 SU in their last 13 games overall with their two wins coming against the lowly Wizards and Hornets.  They return home from a 7-game road trip after a 17-point loss at Boston, and I love fading teams coming back home off an extended trip.  There's a lot of distractions they have to deal with back at home.

The Pelicans are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Blazers with all five wins coming by 9 points or more and by an average of 18.0 points per game.  It will be more of the same tonight given all that the Pelicans have to play for up against the short-handed Blazers.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* Warriors/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -1.5

The Los Angeles Lakers have gone 9-2 SU in their last 11 games overall.  LeBron James sat out their last game and they lost to the Timberwolves.  I expect him back tonight with what's at stake for the Lakers.

The Lakers currently sit in 9th place in the West but just 0.5 games behind the Kings, and 1.5 games behind both the Pelicans and Suns for the 6th seed.  They also at the very least want to get a home game agains the Warriors in the play-in, and they lead the Warriors by 1.5 games.

The Warriors seems pretty much content with the fact that they will be the 10th seed and have to go on the road in the play-in.  They sat Steph Curry last game, and Draymond Green suffered a back injury that leaves him questionable tonight.  I just don't think the Warriors are going to play this game with the sense of urgency that the Lakers will.

The Lakers also want revenge from a 128-121 home loss to the Warriors on March 16th less than a month ago.  They need this win to split the season series.  The Lakers are 27-13 SU at home and playing their best basketball of the season right now with the playoffs quickly approaching.  Bet the Lakers Tuesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (-120)

The Arizona Diamondbacks will be highly motivated for a victory tonight following five consecutive losses by a total of 8 runs.  They will take out their frustration with a blowout road win over the lowly Colorado Rockies.

Merrill Kelly is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He went 12-8 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 30 starts in 2023 after going 13-8 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 33 starts in 2022.

Kelly is off to another great start this season, going 1-0 with a 1.98 ERA and 0.66 WHIP in two starts allowing 3 earned runs and 9 base runners in 13 2/3 innings.  Kelly has owned the Rockies, allowing 4 earned runs and 14 base runners in 19 2/3 innings with a whopping 31 K's in his last three starts against them.

We'll gladly fade Cal Quantrill, who went 4-7 with a 5.24 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 19 starts for the Guardians last season.  Quantrill is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing 9 earned runs, 2 homers and 18 base runners in 9 innings.  The Diamondbacks will hang a big number on him and their bullpen (6.80 ERA) today.  Bet the Diamondbacks on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Bulls UNDER 213.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting between the Bulls and Knicks in five days.  The Bulls won 108-100 in that first meeting on April 5th for just 208 combined points.  It will be another low-scoring, defensive battle in the rematch tonight.

Both the Knicks and Bulls are dead nuts UNDER teams because they play so slow.  In fact, the Knicks rank dead last (30th) in pace, while the Bulls rank 29th.  To no surprise, the UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings with 213 or fewer combined points in six of those 10 meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-110)

The Minnesota Twins are struggling right now without 3B Royce Lewis.  He is hitting .313 with a .369 OBP and a .564 SLG entering his 3rd season in Minnesota.  The Twins are 1-5 in their last six games overall and have been held to 2 runs or fewer in all five losses.  They are hitting .181 and scoring 2.9 runs per game on the season.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have arguably the best lineup in baseball.  They are hitting .279 and scoring 5.6 runs per game this season, including .303 and 6.5 runs per game against right-handed starters.  They have a big advantage at the plate and and an even bigger advantage on the mound tonight.

Ace Tyler Glasnow takes the ball for the Dodgers.  Glasnow went 10-7 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.083 WHIP in 21 starts last season for the Rays with 162 K's in 120 innings.  He is 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA and 0.882 WHIP in three starts this season, allowing just 6 earned runs and 15 base runners in 17 innings.

Louie Varland went 4-3 with a 4.63 ERA while allowing 16 homers in 68 innings for the Twins last season.  He allowed 3 earned runs, a homer and 8 base runners in 4 innings in his first start this season against the Brewers.  It won't go well for him against this potent Dodgers lineup tonight, especially with double-digit winds expected to be blowing out to center.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pacers/Raptors OVER 240.5

The Toronto Raptors are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall with 239 or more combined points in four of those six games.  They are playing no defense right now allowing 122 or more points in five of those six games.

The Indiana Pacers are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall.  They rank 2nd in pace this season and will name their number against Toronto.  I think the Raptors keep pace well enough to get us this OVER tonight.

The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with 252 or more combined points in all three meetings this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Marlins/Yankees OVER 8

The New York Yankees are loaded this season offensively scoring 5.1 runs per game overall and 6.0 runs per game at home.  Their offense has carried them to this 9-2 start.  The Marlins have allowed 6.5 runs per game this season, but their offense has been respectable in this 1-10 start.

I'm taking the OVER 8 today largely due to the fact that both of these starting pitchers are dreadful.  AJ Puk is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 2.83 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing 6 earned runs and 17 base runners in 6 innings for the Marlins.  

Carlos Rodon went 3-8 with a 6.85 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 14 starts for the Yankees last season.  He has a 1.76 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing 2 homers and 17 base runners in 9 2/3 innings.  Both pitchers are putting a lot of runners on base and both have been wild.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Purdue/UConn CBB Championship No-Brainer on UConn -6

The UConn Huskies are 11-0 SU & 11-0 ATS in their last 11 NCAA Tournament games dating back to last season.  They have won all 11 games by 13 points or more.  Alabama shot 47.8% from 3 in the Final 4 and still lost by 14.

UConn has no weaknesses.  The Huskies rank 1st in adjusted offense and 4th in adjusted defense.  They have held seven of their last nine opponents to 60 points or fewer, including five of their last six to 58 points or fewer.

Zach Edey is the best player in college basketball, but UConn is the best team in college basketball.  The Huskies will have the edge at the four other positions on the court outside of Edey.  Plus, Edey hasn't had to face a defender as good as Donovan Klingan all season.  He is the best big man defender in the country.

Klingan will limit what Edey can do on the offensive end.  They won't have to double-team him, and that will make life much more difficult on Purdue's guards who won't be getting uncontested looks like they are accustomed to.  This is a terrible matchup for the Boilermakers.  Bet UConn Monday.

15* Purdue/UConn CBB Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 145.5

The Championship Game will be played inside a spacious Football Stadium at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ.  This is a poor shooting background, and it's going to take time for these players to get used to shooting in it.  Couple that with the nerves of playing in the title game plus max defensive intensity from both teams, and we have a recipe for a low-scoring, defensive battle.

UConn is an elite defensive team ranking 4th in adjusted defense.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Huskies last six games overall and 9-1 in their last 10 games.  They have held seven of their last nine opponents to 60 points or fewer, including 58 or fewer in five of their last six.  They will shut down Purdue as well.

Purdue ranks 12th in adjusted defense largely due to having Zach Edey inside to protect the rim.  The UNDER is 3-0 in Purdue's last three games overall combining for 113 points with NC State, 138 with Tennessee and 148 with Gonzaga.  They shot 57.1% and Gonzaga shot 49.2% in that game and it still saw just 148 combined points with the UNDER cashing.  They have held four of their five opponents to 38.7% shooting or worse in the NCAA Tournament.

Neither team will be getting easy looks inside with Edey and the best big man defender in the country in Donovan Klingan protecting the rim.  This game will be played at a snail's pace as well with UConn ranking 328th in adjusted tempo and Purdue 211th.  This is going to be a classic defensive battle in a game featuring the two best big men in the country.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -129

The Minnesota Twins are struggling right now without 3B Royce Lewis.  He is hitting .313 with a .369 OBP and a .564 SLG entering his 3rd season in Minnesota.  The Twins are 1-4 in their last five games overall and have been held to 2 runs or fewer in all four losses.  They are hitting .191 and scoring 3.0 runs per game on the season.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have arguably the best lineup in baseball.  They are hitting .279 and scoring 5.7 runs per game this season, including .306 and 6.9 runs per game against right-handed starters.  They have a big advantage at the plate and I also give them the edge on the mound today.

James Paxton has been good when healthy and he is healthy to open the season.  Paxton pitched 5 shutout innings in a 8-3 victory over the Giants in his first start this season.  He is 4-1 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in eight career starts against the Twins.

Bailey Ober was rocked for 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 1 1/3 innings of a 11-0 loss at Kansas City in his first start this season.  It won't get any easier for him against the Dodgers tonight.  The Dodgers are 26-6 in their last 32 games off a loss by 4 runs or more.  The Twins are 5-21 in their last 26 games against a team that wins more than 62% of their games.  Bet the Dodgers Monday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Brewers/Reds OVER 9

The Cincinnati Reds are a dead nuts OVER team this season with a great lineup and a suspect rotation and bullpen.  They also play in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball.  The weather looks good in Cincinnati today with almost no wind and temp's in the 70's.

Both the Reds and Brewers are hitting it well this season.  The Reds are scoring 5.1 runs per game and the Brewers are scoring 5.1 runs per game.  Both starting pitchers have struggled against the opposition in this head-to-head series as well.

Graham Ashcraft is 0-4 with a 7.20 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in six career starts against Milwaukee.  Aaron Ashby is 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in his lone career start against Cincinnati.  He will be making his first start of the season for the Brewers.  He is 5-12 with a 4.47 ERA and 1.367 WHIP in two seasons in the big leagues.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* MLB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Marlins/Yankees OVER 8

The New York Yankees are absolutely loaded offensively this season with Soto and Judge and a deep lineup.  They just put up 9 runs and 8 runs in beating the Blue Jays in their last two games and are heating up at the plate.

The Marlins are 1-9 and allowing 6.5 runs per game this season.  They have scored 5.3 runs per game on the road and just hung 10 runs on the Cardinals yesterday.  Light winds will be blowing out to left field tonight at Yankee Stadium with temps in the 60's, so scoring conditions are ripe for runs.

This 8-run total has been set too low for these two starting pitchers up against these two offenses.  Nestor Cortes has been a major disappointment for the Yankees, posting a 6.30 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in his two starts this season while allowing 7 earned runs and 17 base runners in 10 innings.  

Jesus Luzardo is 0-1 with a 4.36 ERA while allowing 5 earned runs and 2 homers in 10 1/3 innings to the Angels and Pirates at home.  He takes a big step up in class here.  Luzardo allowed 7 earned runs in 3 1/3 innings of a 9-4 loss to the Yankees in his lone career start against them last season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Timberwolves/Lakers UNDER 225

Both the Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves have a lot to play for tonight.  Defensive intensity will be high as a result.  The Timberwolves trail the Nuggets by just 0.5 games for 1st place in the West.  The Lakers have climbed their way into the 8th spot and trail the 7th place Pelicans by 0.5 games and the Suns by 1.5 games for 6th.

Minnesota is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Timberwolves rank 21st in pace and 1st in defensive rating.  They are coming off a 97-87 loss to the Suns for just 184 combined points.  They are even more of an UNDER team without Karl-Anthony Towns right now.

The Lakers beat the Cavaliers 116-97 for just 213 combined points at home yesterday.  They aren't going to be looking to push the tempo playing the 2nd of a back-to-back today, and the Timberwolves won't allow them either.  There are also questions as to who will play for the Lakers on the 2nd of a back-to-back.

Minnesota is 16-5 UNDER when revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 points or more this season.  The Lakers are 13-4 UNDER in their last 17 games after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Non-Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Kings/Nets UNDER 222

The Sacramento Kings are a much better defensive team than they get credit for.  The Kings are 12-3 UNDER in their last 15 games overall and would be 13-2 if they hadn't gone to OT against Memphis.  They have gone for 216 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in nine of their last 12 games overall.

They are without two of their best shooters in Kevin Heurter and Malik Monk, and both of those guys are defensive liabilities, which explains this UNDER run.  Monk is the NBA 6th Man of the Year and provides almost all their scoring off the bench.  The Kings are going to have to rely even more on defense moving forward without these guys.

The Kings are coming off yet another low-scoring 101-100 los sat Boston.  It will be more of the same today against the Brooklyn Nets, who beat the Pistons 113-103 yesterday for just 216 combined points.  Now Cameron Johnson and Dennis Smith Jr. are questionable to play for the Nets today.  The Nets rank 24th in pace and 22nd in offensive rating this season.

Brooklyn is 28-12 UNDER in its last 40 home games when revenging a road loss.  Sacramento is 49-31 UNDER in its last 80 road games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +7.5

The San Antonio Spurs have quietly gone 4-2 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  They upset the Suns at home, the Jazz on the road, the Knicks at home and the Pelicans on the road.  They also only lost by 4 as 10.5-point home dogs to the Warriors, and by 5 as 16-point road dogs to the Nuggets.  This team is grossly undervalued right now.

The Spurs are in a favorable rest spot today playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the 76ers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 9th game in 15 days.  Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris are all questionable to play today, but I like the Spurs no matter who suits up for the 76ers.  Bet the Spurs Sunday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bulls/Magic UNDER 212.5

The Chicago Bulls and Orlando Magic are two of the slowest teams in the NBA.  The Magic rank 27th in pace while the Bulls rank 29th.  This game will be played at a snail's pace, which benefits the UNDER.  The Magic rank 3rd in defensive rating as well.

The Bulls could be without both Coby White and Alex Caruso, who both suffered ankle injuries in their 108-100 win over the Knicks last time out.  That would make them go with a bigger lineup and not having White on offense would be a huge blow.

The UNDER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 200, 190 and 191 combined points in three of the four.  Orlando is 10-2 UNDER In Sunday games this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Raptors OVER 227.5

Both RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley returned from injury a few games back.  The Toronto Raptors are a dead nuts OVER team when they have their two best guards in the lineup.  They play faster, play worse defense and play much better offensively with these two on the court.  The Raptors are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with 228 or more combined points in four of those five.

The Washington Wizards have been a dead nuts OVER team all season.  They rank 1st in the NBA in pace and 28th in defensive rating.  They have been filling it up offensively of late while knocking off some quality teams.  They have scored at least 107 points in eight of their last 10 games overall.

I like betting OVERS in games between two teams with nothing to play for at the end of the season.  These seem to be more relaxed games with no defense being played and all focus on the offensive end.  This contest fits the bill.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Blazers/Celtics UNDER 219

The Portland Trail Blazers are a dead nuts UNDER team right now due to playing without their three best players in Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant and Malcolm Brogdon.  They really struggle to score on offense, but they are full of hungry young players that have been getting after it defensively.

The Blazers are 3-0 UNDER in their last three games overall combining for 207 points with the Magic, 175 points with the Hornets and 210 points with the Wizards.  They won't be able to get much offensively against a Boston team that ranks 2nd in the NBA in defensive rating.

The Celtics have gone for 196, 222 and 201 points in three of their last four games.  They don't have much to play for right now so they aren't looking to run it up or push the tempo.  They could let the Blazers hang around as a result, but I like the UNDER much better.  Both Tatum and Brown are questionable for this one as well.

Portland is 20-9 UNDER in non-conference games this season.  The Blazers are 17-5 UNDER in their last 22 games off a win by 6 points or less.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Rockets/Mavs UNDER 227

The Dallas Mavericks are playing much better defense now with the playoffs quickly approaching.  The Mavericks are 11-2 UNDER in their last 13 games overall with 214, 204, 204, 210, 228, 220, 210, 219, 208, 212 and 220 combined points in 10 of those 13 games.  They rank 1st in the NBA in defensive rating in their last 13 games.

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting between the Rockets and Mavericks in eight days.  The Mavericks won 125-107 in Houston on March 31st.  Dallas shot 24-of-47 (51.1%) from 3 and that's not going to happen again.

Plus, Dallas could be without Luka Doncic again after he missed their last game against the Warriors.  But I like the UNDER regardless.  This is an early 3:40 EST start time with it being a 2:40 body clock game for these teams.  They aren't used to playing this early in the day, and it usually takes a few quarters for them to wake up.

Dallas is 21-6 UNDER in its last 27 games against teams that allow 46% shooting or higher.  Houston is 11-2 UNDER in its last 13 road games off two or more consecutive overs.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Dodgers/Cubs OVER 8.5

The Los Angeles Dodgers are 5-1-1 OVER in their last seven games overall.  They have one of the most potent lineups in baseball hitting .291 and scoring 6.2 runs per game this season.

The Cubs are 5-3 OVER in their eight games this season behind one of the most underrated lineups in baseball.  They are hitting .270 and scoring 6.2 runs per game this season.  This total is too low for a game involving the Cubs and Dodgers right now.

Gavin Stone and Shota Imanaga are getting too much respect in this game as starting pitchers.  Stone has a 5.40 ERA allowing 3 earned runs in 5 innings to the Cardinals.  Imanaga shut out the Rockies in 6 scoreless innings.  Both the Rockies and Cardinals have two of the worst lineups in baseball.  This is a big step up in class for both starting pitchers today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Baltimore Orioles -120

The Baltimore Orioles want revenge from a 5-4 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates in 11 innings yesterday.  They are 5-3 this season and haven't lost two in a row yet.  This was a resilient team last year, and that will be the case again this season with one of the best lineups and bullpens in baseball.

Dean Kremer held the Royals to 4 base runners in 5 1/3 innings in his first start this season.  He went 13-5 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 32 starts last season after going 8-7 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 2022.  Kremer pitched 6 1/3 shutout innings in his lone career start against Pittsburgh.

Marco Gonzales went 4-2 with a 5.22 ERA and 1.460 WHIP in 10 starts for the Mariners this season.  He allowed one earned run and 6 base runners in 5 innings to the Nationals in his first start this season.  The Nationals have one of the worst lineups in baseball.  Gonzales is 1-1 with a 5.95 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in four career starts against the Orioles.

The Orioles are 15-2 in Kremer's last 17 starts as a favorite.  Baltimore is 15-3 in Kremer's last 18 starts against a team with a winning record.  Like Gonzales, this start for the Pirates is fools' gold.  Bet the Orioles Sunday.

20* Alabama/UConn Final 4 No-Brainer on UConn -11

The UConn Huskies are 10-0 SU & 10-0 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games dating back to last season.  They have won all 10 games by 13 points or more.  That's why I'm willing to lay the big number with the Huskies in this one.

UConn has no weaknesses.  The Huskies rank 1st in adjusted offense and 4th in adjusted defense.  They have held seven of their last eight opponents to 60 points or fewer, including five consecutive opponents to 58 points or fewer.  Illinois went 0-for-19 on shots that were contested by Donovan Klingan last game.  Illinois managed just 52 points for the game after coming into the game ranked No. 1 in adjusted offense.  It will be a similar fate for Alabama here, which isn't going to shoot nearly as well as it did against Clemson last game.

Alabama has been playing a little better defense in the NCAA Tournament, but they have still allowed an average of 81.5 points per game.  UConn is going to get whatever it wants offensively.  Klingan is going to dominate the paint on both sides of the court as the Crimson Tide have no answer for him.  And the crazy part about UConn's dominance in this tournament is that they have shot poorly from 3-point range, but it hasn't matter.  They are probably due for some positive 3-point shooting regression at the very least.

Alabama is due some negative shooting regression.  The Crimson Tide were on fire in the 2H from 3 against both Clemson and UNC in their last two games.  UConn has the length on the wing to contest more of their shots, and Alabama isn't going to be able to get anything at the rim against Klingan.  Their suspect defense will get exposed as well, and UConn will control the tempo ranking 315th in adjusted tempo, plus they do not allow anything in transition, which is something Alabama relies on.  This is a terrible matchup for the Crimson Tide on all fronts.  Bet UConn Saturday.