The Los Angeles Rams will look to remain among the NFL’s unbeaten this week when they play host to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The two teams will kick off at 4:05 EST on Sunday, September 29 at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Fans in select markets can watch the game on Fox.
According to our Week 4 NFL odds, the Rams are 9.5-point favorites at home. The over/under for the game is set at 49.5 points.
If there’s such a thing as a Super Bowl loss hangover, the Rams must have found a vaccination for it. They have picked up where they left off at the end of 2018. Through three weeks, Los Angeles has scored road wins against the Panthers and Browns and had a convincing home win over the Saints in a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship Game.
The only problem for Los Angeles is that the 49ers are also 3-0 and the Seahawks are 2-1, making the NFC West a lot more competitive than it was a year ago. The Rams also have a road trip to Seattle scheduled for next Thursday followed by a home date with the 49ers, so they have to make sure they don’t look ahead of the Bucs toward those two big divisional games.
As for the Bucs, they looked certain to win their second straight game last week, only for Matt Gay to miss a last-second field goal from 34 yards out, resulting in a 1-point loss to the Giants. Before that, Tampa had two very different performances. First, they lost by two touchdowns to San Francisco in a turnover-plagued game in Week 1. Next, they scored a huge road win over the Panthers in Week 2.
Following last week’s loss, the Bucs are 1-2 and will play their next five games away from home. Tampa has road games against the Rams and Saints the next two weeks followed by a London rematch with the Panthers. That trip is followed by road games against the Titans and Seahawks. The Bucs don’t play at home again until Week 10. Getting to that point of the season with a .500 record will be a great challenge. The Bucs will need to find a way to win some games they’re not expected to win, starting with this week’s game against the Rams.
I have little doubt that the Rams will hold serve at home, but I’m not a huge fan of them covering the spread. Los Angeles has won games, but they haven’t dominated. The only game they won going away was when Drew Brees got hurt. Keep in mind that they trailed the Browns after three quarters last week. Even with the Rams at 3-0, I still like the Bucs and the points in this game.
The good news for the Rams is that their defense has been a lot better than last year. The bad news is that they’ve needed their defense more than last year because the offense isn’t quite clicking just yet. Todd Gurley has played without many limitations after an offseason of questions about the health of his knee. While he’s been steady, he hasn’t looked like the superstar we’ve seen in the past, especially since he’s been a non-factor in the passing game.
At the same time, Jared Goff hasn’t quite hit the ground running in 2019. That’s not to say he’s played poorly. But he’s averaging less than 250 yards per game and has already thrown three interceptions. With Cooper Kupp healthy and his full complement of receivers at his disposal, the Rams were surely expecting better out of Goff. Until he steps his game up, I’m a little uncomfortable assuming the Rams can win by double digits.
Admittedly, the Tampa defense has been up and down this year. They gave up 32 points last week to the Giants and Daniel Jones, who was making his first career start. On the other hand, it was their offense that gave away 15 of the 31 points they gave up in Week 1, as the defense kept Jimmy Garoppolo in check. Also, Shaquil Barrett has exploded for eight sacks early in the season. If he can help the Bucs put consistent pressure on Goff, it’ll make it harder for the Los Angeles offense to click.
I also have a little bit of faith in the Bucs to score against the Rams defense. My concern with Jameis Winston is turnovers, which were a problem in Week 1 and cost the Bucs again last week. However, when he’s not turning the ball over, Winston has put up big numbers this year. Moreover, Tampa’s running game is less of a liability than it was a year ago and Mike Evans finally had a breakout game last week. Even if Winston has a turnover or two, I still think the Bucs can move the ball and find the end zone a couple of times.
In the end, I’m not sure the Rams can get their offense going enough to win by 10-plus points. There’s also a good chance that Tampa’s offense can keep up with them. Even if the Rams get a little separation, Winston always seems to excel at scoring garbage-time touchdowns, which is why I think the Rams will win but fail to cover.