Patriots Jets Odds
The New England Patriots (5-1) square off against the New York Jets (3-3) on Sunday, October 20 in the second meeting of the 2013 season between these AFC East rivals. The Patriots won a nailbiter at home on September 12 by a final of 13-10 for their fifth straight victory in this series.
Kickoff for this AFC East clash is scheduled for 1:00 EST Sunday afternoon. If you are interested in wagering on this rematch, then you will be choosing from a line of New England -4 over New York and a total set of 43.5 points.
Why New England Covers
The Patriots are back to the style of football that won them a several Super Bowls over the past decade. The offense is doing just enough to move the chains and put points on the board. But like those former Super Bowl winning teams, the Patriots now have a defense that they can rely on to carry them when need be. The result has been a 5-1 start and one of the best records in the NFL in 2013.
New England has averaged 348.8 total yards per game to rank a respectable 13th in the league in total offense. Tom Brady is finally getting accustomed to his new receivers, and he hit rookie Kembrell Thompkins for the game winner last week in the final seconds of a 30-27 victory over previously unbeaten New Orleans. The defense is yielding just 16.2 points per game to rank 4th in the league in scoring defense. New York, which ranks 28th in the league in scoring offense at 17.3 points per game, will have a hard time putting up points on the Patriots.
That was the case in the first meeting as the Patriots limited the Jets to just 10 points and 318 total yards. They held Geno Smith to 15 of 35 passing for 214 yards and three fourth quarter interceptions. New England has now won five straight meetings with New York dating back to the start of the 2011 season. Two of those wins came on the road in blowout fashion. The Patriots were victorious by a final of 49-19 on the road last season, and 37-16 away from home in 2011.
New England is 59-36 against the spread vs. poor passing defenses that allow a completion percentage of 61% or worse since 1992. The Patriots are 45-25 against the spread in their last 70 road games vs. division opponents. New England is 22-8-1 against the spread in its last 31 October games. The Jets are 1-5 against the number in their last six games following a double-digit home loss. The road team is 22-8-1 against the spread in the last 31 meetings in this series. The Patriots are 12-2 against the number in their last 14 trips to New York.
Why New York Covers
The Jets are certainly an improved team in 2013 under the guidance of rookie quarterback Geno Smith. They have managed to go 3-3 this season despite being -11 in turnover differential on the season. If they can just shore up the turnovers like they did in a 30-28 win in Atlanta two weeks ago, it’s scary how good this team can be. They are outgaining their opponents by 32.9 yards per game on the season, which is one of the best ratios in the league.
What gives New York a chance to compete week in and week out is a defense that is giving up just 22.5 points and 303.8 yards per game to rank 4th in the league in total defense. That’s pretty impressive considering the offense has put the defense in some bad spots this year. That was certainly the case in the first game against New England, which resulted in a 10-13 road loss as a 10.5-point underdog. The defense did its part in that game, limiting the Patriots to just 232 total yards while frustrating Tom Brady throughout.
While New England has been solid defensively as well this season, it has suffered two season-ending injuries in recent weeks to its two best defensive players. Without Vince Wilford and Jared Mayo for the rest of the season, there’s no question the Patriots are going to take a step back defensively the rest of the way. The offense has been held in check as well due to injury and offseason change. Rob Gronkowski has yet to see the field, while Danny Amendola cannot stay in the game as he keeps going out with various injuries. Brady is working with a bunch of inexperienced receivers, which has been frustrating for him.
The Patriots are certainly fortunate to be 5-1 right now as four of their victories have come by a touchdown or less, including three by a field or or fewer. The Jets have followed up each loss this season with a win, so this is clearly a resilient team. That has been the case for quite some time as the Jets are 16-4 against the spread in home games off a home loss since 1992. The Patriots are 1-4 against the number in their last five road games. New York is 5-1 against the spread in its last six games after scoring less than 15 points in its previous game.
The Patriots are certainly fortunate to be 5-1 right now as four of their victories have come by a touchdown or less, including three by a field or or fewer.
My Early Lean: New York Jets +4