Oregon State Oregon Odds
This Friday the No. 13 Oregon (9-2) will host in-state rival Oregon State (6-5). Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 EST at Autzen Stadium and will be televised on FOX Sports 1. I think it’s pretty safe to say these two teams both disappointed this past weekend. The Ducks lost 16-42 at Arizona, while the Beavers got thrashed 27-69 at home by Washington. By far the most lopsided losses of the season for each team. Oregon has won five straight in the series and the oddsmakers like their chances of rebounding more than than Oregon State. The Ducks are currently listed as a 21-point home favorite.
Why Oregon State Will Cover:
The Beavers aren’t exactly coming into this matchup playing with a whole lot of confidence. Oregon State’s lopsided defeat to the Huskies was their fourth straight loss after a nice 6-game winning streak following their early upset loss to Eastern Washington. As bad as things have looked for Oregon State, I don’t think there’s any doubt that they will come to play against their in-state rivals. The Beavers would love nothing more than to end their series losing streak with a win at Oregon on senior night.
Oregon made it clear that they weren’t interested in playing in the Rose Bowl and they made sure they wouldn’t get there with last week’s loss. This team had such high hopes of playing for a national championship and you just have to wonder if they really care what happens the rest of the way. To come out and play the way they did with a chance to go to the Pac 12 Championship Game and a BCS bowl, certainly makes 21-points seem like a lot in a game the Beavers desperately want to win.
Oregon State has been a good team to back in this spot. The Beavers are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs a team with a winning record, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after failing to the cover the spread and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 following a double-digit loss at home. Prior to last week Oregon State’s biggest defeat all season was just 18-points to Stanford. They only lost by 17 to USC and just 13 at Arizona State. This team is clearly capable of hanging with the Ducks. The road team is 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in this series.
The Beavers are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs a team with a winning record, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after failing to the cover the spread and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 following a double-digit loss at home.
The road team is 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in this series.
Why Oregon Will Cover:
Not to take anything away from Arizona, who played a fantastic game, the Ducks weren’t mentally ready to play last week. This team has too much talent to get beat by a team like the Wildcats by nearly four touchdowns. I just can’t see this team not showing up at home against their in-state rivals. It doesn’t matter if you haven’t won a game or are undefeated, players always seem to come out motivated in these games.
If in fact the Ducks decide to play, they are clearly capable of winning this game and covering the spread. The fact that Oregon State allowed Washington to rush for 530 yards is a very promising sign. Oregon is 8-0 in games where they rush for at least 200 yards and have won all eight of those games by at least 21 points. Home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points who feature an incredible offense (averaging 6.4 or more yards/play) after gaining at least 6.25 yards/play in two straight games are 49-13 (79%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
Home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points who feature an incredible offense (averaging 6.4 or more yards/play) after gaining at least 6.25 yards/play in two straight games are 49-13 (79%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
While it hasn’t happened often, Oregon is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points and are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 40 points.
Early Lean – Oregon -21