The Oregon State Beavers (2-9, 0-8) will battle the Oregon Ducks (8-3, 6-2), currently ranked #23 in the CFP rankings and #18 in the AP poll, in the latest edition of the Civil War rivalry Friday afternoon. The Ducks have taken the last seven meetings, including a 47-19 rout as a 21 point favorite on the road in Corvallis on November 29, 2014 in the most recent matchup.
Oregon State has dropped eight straight after they were clobbered 52-7 at home by Washington Saturday. Oregon picked up their fifth straight win with a 48-28 home win over #24 USC Saturday. Kickoff from Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon is scheduled for 3:30 pm ET and will not be nationally televised. Oregon is currently favored by 34.5 points with the over/under set at 68.5 points in this contest.
Free Pick on the Oregon Ducks -34.5
Oregon State was no match for Washington as they were held to 13 points or less for the sixth time this season. The Beavers were down 28-0 after one quarter and 45-0 at the half; the game was over early. Oregon State was outgained 482-255, gave up 28 first downs while recording only eight of their own and was destroyed in time of possession as the Huskies held the ball for 41:22 to the Beavers’ 18:38 in the game. The Beavers turned the ball over twice in the game and allowed an 89 yard punt return for a score in the game.
The Beavers have issues moving the ball through the air as they are 117th in the nation in passing offense (155.5 yards) while they are 63rd in rushing offense (172.5 yards) per game on the year. Oregon State averages a meager 16.9 points per game, which leaves them tied for 116th in the nation in scoring offense while they are currently 108th in the nation in scoring defense by allowing opponents to pile up 35.6 points per contest. Two freshman quarterbacks have seen action for Oregon State: Seth Collins (81 of 156, 890 yards, 6 TD, 4 INT, team leading 536 rushing yards, 5 TD) has seen the majority of the action while Marcus McMaryion (16 of 46, 249 yards, TD, 2 INT) is next in line should a change be made. Nick Mitchell has completed 51 of 113 passes for 571 yards with three touchdowns and four interceptions in his work. Storm Barrs-Woods is the feature back in the system for Oregon State as he has 99 carries for 491 yards and a score; Ryan Nall has contributed 54 carries for 281 yards and two scores on the year. Victor Bolden leads the Beavers with 43 receptions for 418 yards and three scores while Jordan Villamin has added 39 receptions for 588 yards and five touchdowns. Datrin Guyton (14 grabs, 178 yards), Hunter Jarmon (16 catches, 177 yards, TD) and Barrs-Woods (12 catches out of the backfield) are the other players that have caught double digit passes this season. Garrett Owens has kicked all 17 extra points and 11 of 15 field goal attempts this season with a long of 50 yards.
Oregon jumped to a 31-14 halftime lead against the Trojans and held USC at arm’s length the rest of the way to continue their win streak. The Ducks outgained the Trojans 578-424, won the first down battle 28-24 and made up for the time of possession loss where they allowed USC to hold the ball for 34:54 to their 25:06 in the game. Both teams committed one turnover in the game but the Ducks have done more with less on a regular basis. One has to wonder if Oregon would be in the CFP playoff rankings had Vernon Adams Jr. not been down with injury earlier in the season.
The Ducks are just 42nd in passing offense (250.8 yards) but they are having great success on the ground as they are 5th in the nation with 285.9 yards per contest. Oregon puts up 42.2 points per game, which is tied for 6th in the nation, but they are only 112th in the nation in scoring defense as the Ducks are allowing 36.3 points a game. Vernon Adams Jr. was the starter before getting hurt; he’s 127 of 202 for 2,078 yards with 22 touchdowns and six picks while running for 123 yards plus two scores. Jeff Lockie (54 of 84, 544 yards, 5 TD, 4 INT, 109 rushing yards) and Taylor Alie (6 of 14, 96 yards, TD, 142 rushing yards, 3 TD) took turns running the show with Adams out but he’s back in the mix now. The run game is centered around Royce Freeman (230 carries, 1539 yards, 12 TD) and Taj Griffin (64 carries, 464 yards, two scores) as they average 6.1 yards per carry as a team. Bralon Addison leads the team with 50 receptions for 669 yards and seven scores; Freeman has 21 grabs out of the backfield while Charles Nelson has 14 catches for 243 yards and three scores. Dwayne Stanford (22 receptions, 354 yards, 5 TD) and Darren Carrington (20 catches, 464 yards, 5 TD) are other options in the passing game. Aidan Schneider has hit all 55 extra points and 19 of 20 field goal attempts this season with a long of 41 yards.
Oregon is 7-0 ATS in their last seven in November, 4-1 ATS in their last five after picking up at least 450 yards of offense, 16-5 ATS in their last 21 overall and 20-8-2 ATS in their last 30 at home against teams with a losing road record. Oregon State is 1-6 ATS in their last seven after a straight up loss, 1-6 ATS in their last seven on the road, 0-4 ATS in their last four after a double digit loss at home and 0-5 ATS in their last five in November.
The Beavers are glad to see that their season is just about over as this one has been a trying experience with trying to find a capable starter among their trio of freshmen quarterbacks. Oregon has been rolling with Adams Jr. back in the driver’s seat of the Blur offense. The Ducks should have little trouble dispatching the Beavers and winning their sixth straight game.
- Jack’s Free Sports Picks: 11/28
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