The No. 3 Oregon Ducks travel to Corvallis to take on the Oregon State Beavers on Saturday, November 29th in their annual Civil War rivalry game. This has been a very one-sided series as the Ducks have won six straight meetings with the Beavers, though they barely won 36-35 at home as a 24-point favorite last year.
Oregon (10-1) reeled off its sixth straight victory in a 44-10 triumph over Colorado at home last week. Oregon State (5-6) suffered an ugly 13-37 loss at Washington last week for its fifth defeat in six games.
Kickoff inside Reser Stadium is scheduled for 8:00 EST Saturday night with ABC providing the television coverage. If you are looking to place a bet on this rivalry game, you’ll be working with a line of Oregon -20 over Oregon State.
My Early Lean: Oregon State +20
These rivalry games are always played closer to the vest. Obviously, Oregon State isn’t having its best season, but you can just ask Arizona State how tough it is to win in Corvallis. The Beavers were 7-point home underdogs to the Sun Devils two weeks ago and came away with a 35-27 victory. They dominated the game as they outgained the Sun Devils by 131 yards in the win.
Oregon State would love nothing more than to run Oregon’s bid at a Pac-12 Championship and a spot in the four-team playoff. It also needs one more win to become bowl eligible, so it obviously has plenty to play for here. Couple that with the fact that it has lost six straight in this series, and it is obviously desperate for a victory.
Last year, the Beavers were having a mediocre season similar to this one, and they nearly upset the Ducks in Eugene. They only lost 35-36 as a 24-point road underdog after the Ducks scored with only 29 seconds remaining to win the game. They were also only outgained 545-568 for the game, or by 23 total yards. Sean Mannion threw for 314 yards and two touchdowns, while the rushing attack produced 231 yards and 5.9 per carry in the defeat.
Last year, the Beavers were having a mediocre season similar to this one, and they nearly upset the Ducks in Eugene. They only lost 35-36 as a 24-point road underdog.
I simply believe the Ducks are overvalued here because they have not only won six straight coming in, but also covered in all six games. Oddsmakers have been forced to set this number much higher than it should be. Asking the Ducks to win by three or more touchdowns to cover the spread is asking too much in a rivalry game like this. Plus, the Ducks always seem to stumble somewhere along the way, and this could be the time that they do.
Oregon State certainly has the offense to put up points on this Oregon defense. The Beavers are a primary passing team that averages 62.8% completions, 281 yards per game, and 7.3 per attempt. Oregon has been vulnerable against the pass this season, allowing 62.7% completions, 277 yards per game, and 7.0 per attempt. Mannion should have another big day against this Oregon defense, just as he did in their meeting last year.
Oregon State is 85-53 ATS in its last 138 games after playing two straight conference games. The Beavers are 112-78 ATS after the first month of the season since 1992. I simply believe the Ducks are overvalued here after covering six straight games, while the Beavers are undervalued after failing to cover five of their last six. Their one cover was an upset home win over ASU, and I expect them to give Oregon a run for its money as well.