In another Week 2 Power 5 conference matchup between the Big 10 and the Pac 12, the Minnesota Gophers travel to Corvallis, Oregon, to take on the Oregon State Beavers. Although this game won’t get as much attention as the Oregon vs. Nebraska contest, the Beavers vs. the Gophers is still an intriguing matchup. Kickoff inside Reser Stadium is at 10 P.M. ET.
Last year, Minnesota beat Oregon State 30-23 in Minneapolis. However, both teams have undergone significant changes since that game. Will this week’s contest end in the same result or will the Beavers get revenge?
The Minnesota Gophers (1-0) come into this matchup looking to overcome their struggles from opening week after surviving an encounter with the Buffalo Bulls (17-7). All, but 3 points were scored in the first quarter as the Gophers eeked out a victory that was tougher than it really should’ve been.
Oregon State (1-1) has looked shaky in both of their games already. Opening week saw them get demolished against Colorado State 58-27. And, in their second game, the Beavers had to come from behind to beat Portland State.
The spread opened with Oregon State getting 1.5 points. It has since shifted significantly and the Beavers are now listed as a 2.5 point favorite. There are several books that have the line at -2 points for Oregon State. The Over/Under started out at 52 points and has come down to 51.5 total points.
It’s hard to feel confident in either team winning this game, but there is one bet that looks very appetizing – the Under.
Minnesota was only able to muster up 17 points against the Buffalo Bulls who finished 2016 with a 2-10 record. The Gophers scored 14 points in the 1st quarter and could only manage 3 more points the rest of the game. Their ground game had a terrible 3.3 ypc as they totaled 169 yards on 51 carries. They will need to improve their ypc and get better play from their o-line if they want to win this week’s game.
Fortunately for the Gophers, they play against an Oregon State Beavers defense that has been horrendous in their first 2 games of the season. Take a look at the staggering numbers that Oregon State is giving up: 45 ppg, 241 rushing ypg, and 279 passing ypg.
On the other side of the ball, OSU is averaging about 31 ppg, 153 rushing ypg, and 269 passing ypg. Their 422 ypg average is almost twice as many total yards that Minnesota gave up to Buffalo (266).
In time of possession, Minnesota has a big advantage with a 36:59 TOP vs OSU’s 24:39 TOP. Minnesota doesn’t strike you as a team that will go up and down the field scoring points. So, this TOP is mainly due to their grind it out style of running the ball. You can expect more of that to happen this week as OSU’s defense is terrible against the run allowing 241 yards per game. As for OSU’s offense, don’t expect them to reach their 31 ppg average. The Gophers have a talented defense that will limit OSU’s scoring chances.
To sum it all up: this game should fall comfortably below the 51.5 total points and bring home the Under bet.
The Under is 4-1 in Minnesota’s last 5 games and 4-0 in the Gophers last 4 games against the Pac 12. It’s also 4-0 in the Beavers last 4 games against the Big Ten. In their match-up last year, the Under hit.