There are major implications in the Pac-12 North race this week as the California Golden Bears pay a visit to the no. 13 Oregon Ducks. Kickoff is set for 8:00 EST on Saturday, October 5 at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. The game can be seen nationally on Fox.
Current odds list the Ducks as 17.5-point favorites at home with an over/under of 46 points. Click here for a full listing of this week’s college football schedule and betting odds.
After a 4-0 start to the season that saw them climb all the way to no. 15 in the polls, the Golden Bears suddenly awoke from their dream season last week. Starting quarterback Chase Garbers suffered a shoulder injury that will keep him out for the foreseeable future early in last Friday’s game against Arizona State. Without him, Cal went on to lose the game 24-17, dropping them from the polls.
Alas, the season isn’t over for Cal. They have wins over Washington and Ole Miss to hang their hat on. At 4-1, they are in excellent shape for a bowl game. There’s also hope for them in the Pac-12 North race if they can pull off the upset over Oregon on Saturday night. Plus, the Golden Bears can hold out hope that Garbers will return at some point this season. They just have to stay afloat until then.
As for Oregon, they’ve responded well since losing to Auburn in their season opener. The Ducks have blowout wins over Nevada and Montana and also covered a double-digit spread during a visit to Stanford a couple of weeks ago to get to 3-1.
With a 1-0 conference record, Oregon controls their own destiny in the Pac-12 North. Obviously, there will be plenty of tough games ahead of them. But they know they’ll reach the conference title game if they keep winning. Also, the Ducks are probably the only team in the Pac-12 with any chance of reaching the College Football Playoff. However, their only path to get to the top-4 is to win out and do it in convincing fashion.
This has been a rather one-sided series in Oregon’s favor over the past decade. The Ducks have won nine of their last 10 meetings with Cal with all but one of those wins coming by at least 16 points. Needless to say, the Golden Bears have struggled to keep up with Oregon in recent years and haven’t won a game in Eugene since 2007.
I’d be surprised if Cal won this game, but I’m still not on board with this spread. Under Justin Wilcox, the Golden Bears have made defense their calling card. Even without Garbers available, I think the Cal defense is good enough to keep them in the game and beat the spread.
At times, the Oregon offense seems unstoppable. Just look at the 77 points they scored against Nevada last month. But they were held in check for long stretches against Auburn and also struggled to find consistency against Stanford. The Ducks managed just 320 total yards and 21 points in their win over Stanford. They weren’t effective running the ball and forced everything on Justin Herbert, although he was obviously up to the challenge. In other words, there is evidence that the Oregon offense can be contained.
To be fair, the Ducks have had an extra week to make adjustments and prepare for a top-notch Cal defense. But if Stanford was able to limit Oregon to 21 points, the Cal defense is good enough to match that. Even if the Ducks can manage 30 points against the Golden Bears, that’s asking a lot out of the Oregon defense in order to cover 17.5 points.
Of course, the big question is how the Cal offense will fare without Garbers, who seemed to hit his stride right before getting hurt. Backup Devon Modster was ineffective last week against Arizona State after coming into the game. That makes me a little nervous. But Modster is much better than he showed last week. He put together a few solid performances while playing with UCLA a couple of years ago and should be much better after a full week of practice as a starter. The Bears are also getting steady production this year from running backs Christopher Brown and Marcel Dancy, so it won’t all be on Modster to carry the offense.
Finally, it’s fair to say that the jury is still out on the Oregon defense. On paper, they’ve only allowed 15 points in their last three games. But the best team they’ve played during that span is Stanford, whose offensive struggles this year are well-documented. I want to see a little more from Oregon on that side of the ball until I start to buy stock in their defense.
All things considered, I’m just not comfortable eating 17.5 points in this game. I don’t feel that strongly about this pick, and if the spread were a few points lower, I might side with Oregon. However, I’m high on the Cal defense, and I think that’ll be enough for the Golden Bears to beat the spread in this game.