The Oklahoma State Cowboys host the Baylor Bears on Saturday, November 21 in a game that has huge Big 12 title implications. The home team has won five straight meetings in this series, including a 49-28 win for the Bears last season.
Oklahoma State (10-0, 7-0 Big 12) certainly let down last week against Iowa State, but still found a way to come back from 17 points down to win 35-31 on the road. J.W. Walsh came on late and threw a 7-yard touchdown pass to Jeff Carr with 3:06 to play that proved to be the game-winner.
Baylor (8-1, 5-1 Big 12) had its 20-game home winning streak snapped with a 34-44 loss to Oklahoma in Waco last week. The Bears allowed 511 total hards and committed three turnovers in the loss to really put a damper on their Big 12 title hopes.
Kickoff inside Boone Pickens Stadium is set for 7:30 EST Saturday night with FOX providing the television coverage. Taking a look at the lines in Las Vegas, I find Oklahoma State as a 1-point favorite over Baylor with a total set of 78 points.
My Early Lean: Oklahoma State -1
Baylor is going to be in a very poor spot emotionally here. It missed out on the four-team playoff last year with one loss, and now it knows that even if it wins out it is likely to be left out again. I just don’t expect the Bears to show up this week after that devastating loss to Oklahoma last week. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State still controls its own destiny. Win out and it will be given a spot in the four-team playoff, so I like its mentality much better.
I also like that fact that Stillwater is one of the toughest places to play in the entire country, and you can bet that Boone Pickens Stadium will be rocking Saturday night after this 10-0 start. After all, the Cowboys are 5-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 29.8 points per game. That includes a 49-29 win over TCU two weeks ago.
Sure, only winning 35-31 at Iowa State is not a good result, but that was an awful spot for Oklahoma State. The Cowboys were coming off their huge win against TCU, and they had this game against Baylor on deck. It was clearly a trap game for them. But after trailing 24-7, they outscored the Cyclones 28-7 the rest of the way. They simply would not be denied. Ames is a tough place to play, too, as the Cyclones beat Texas 24-0 there three weeks ago. But after getting over that hurdle, look for the Cowboys to refocus this week against Baylor.
Oklahoma State is 16-4 SU & 15-4-1 ATS in the last 20 meetings, including 10-0 SU & 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home meetings with Baylor. The Cowboys have won all 10 home meetings by 14 points or more and by an average of 28.9 points per game.
This has been a one-sided series to say the least. Oklahoma State is 16-4 SU & 15-4-1 ATS in the last 20 meetings, including 10-0 SU & 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home meetings with Baylor. The Cowboys have won by 32, 35, 27, 28, 42, 28, 35, 28, 14 and 20 points in their last 10 home meetings with Baylor. They won all 10 by 14 points or more and by an average of 28.9 points per game. It’s safe to say the Bears haven’t fared too well in Stillwater.
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