The No. 12 Florida State Seminoles host the North Carolina Tar Heels on Saturday, October 1st in a non-divisional ACC clash. The Seminoles had won four straight meetings in this series before losing 35-37 at home in their most recent battle in 2010.
Florida State (3-1, 0-1 ACC) got back on track last week with a 55-35 road win at South Florida. After trailing 7-14, the Seminoles scored 38 straight points to take command. Dalvin Cook had a career game with 267 rushing yards and two touchdowns.
North Carolina (3-1, 1-0 ACC) reeled off its third straight victory with a 37-36 win over Pittsburgh. Trailing by 13 points with less than six minutes remaining, the Tar Heels were able to score twice, including a 2-yard game-winning touchdown pass from Mitch Trubisky to Bug Howard with only two seconds remaining.
Kickoff inside Daok Campbell Stadium is scheduled for 3:30 EST Saturday afternoon with ESPN providing the television coverage. According to the college football odds for Week 5, I find Florida State as an 11-point favorite over North Carolina with a total set of 69 points.
I’m going with the Seminoles -11 as my free pick in this game as I think they will continue the momentum they built up last week. After all, they have to impress the rest of the way if they want to get back in the four-team playoff conversation.
Impress they did last week as they rolled a very good South Florida team 55-35 on the road. They scored 38 straight points during one stretch, and this game wasn’t even as close as the final score. The Seminoles outgained the Bulls by 197 total yards in the game.
The key was getting Dalvin Cook and the running game going. The Seminoles racked up 647 total yards of offense, 478 of which came on the ground. Cook had 267 yards and two touchdowns, while Jacques Patrick added 124 yards and a score. Look for the Seminoles to stick with the run this week against one of the worst teams against the run in college football.
UNC gave up 240 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry in 2014 and 247 yards per game and 5.1 per carry in 2015. It hasn’t been much better against the run this season, allowing 240 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry thus far in 2016.
UNC gave up 240 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry in 2014 and 247 yards per game and 5.1 per carry in 2015. It hasn’t been much better against the run this season, allowing 240 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry thus far in 2016.
The Tar Heels haven’t proven they can stop the run in any game this season. They gave up 289 yards to Georgia, 182 to Illinois, 209 to woeful James Madison, and 281 to Pittsburgh last week. Their defense is the reason I give them no shot of being competitive against the Seminoles this week.
Plays against any team (N CAROLINA) – after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after gaining 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 51-23 (68.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Jimbo Fisher is 15-4 ATS after having won two of his last three games as the coach of Florida State. North Carolina is 9-30 ATS in its last 39 games after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games. The Seminoles are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.
See additional college football free picks from all of our top handicappers here at Betfirm and take advantage of their advice.