With the Wild Card Round in the books, it’s time to turn our attention to the 2014 NFL Divisional Round. I went through and gave out my favorite prop bets for the Wild Card Round and came away with some solid results. I’m going to do the same with the Divisional Round, providing you with my favorite props bets over the weekend.
I was on the money with my choice on how many Wild Card teams would advance last week with the over 1.5. I also successfully predicted that the Saints would compile more offensive yards than the Eagles, that Ryan Matthews would finish with less than 85.5 rushing yards, and that Colin Kaepernick would finish with more than 219.5 passing yards AND 40.5 rushing yards.
Hopefully I can have another good weekend and deliver you some easy prop winners. Here are my favorite bets for the 2014 Divisional Round. If you are interested in wagering on these props, you can find them all at Bovada.
Which Player Will Record the Most Passing Yards?
- Peyton Manning (8/5)
- Drew Brees (4/1)
- Tom Brady (5/1)
- Andrew Luck (6/1)
- Philip Rivers (6/1)
- Cam Newton (12/1)
- Russell Wilson (12/1)
- Colin Kaepernick (15/1)
The Pick: Andrew Luck (6/1) – Luck was the leading passer in the Wild Card Round with 443 passing yards on 29 completions against the Kansas City Chiefs last week. The biggest reason for that was the fact that the Colts were down 28 points at one point and had to pass it to get back in it. I could easily see the Patriots getting out to a big lead in this one, which will put it all on Luck’s shoulders again. That’s why, at 6/1 odds, I believe Luck is the best bet on the board to lead all quarterbacks in passing yards this weekend.
Which Player Will Record the Most Rushing Yards?
- Marshawn Lynch (7/4)
- Knowshon Moreno (4/1)
- Ryan Matthews (5/1)
- Frank Gore (6/1)
- Cam Newton (7/1)
- Colin Kaepernick (7/1)
- DeAngelo Williams (7/1)
The Pick: Frank Gore (6/1) – It’s a sad day for running backs. There really isn’t much to like from this list. Marshawn Lynch seems like the obvious choice, but at 7/4 odds he’s not worth a bet. Plus, the Saints shut down the league’s top rushing attack last week in the Eagles, and they are much more vulnerable against the pass than they are against the run. There are only two backs on this list who are guaranteed to get a plethora of carries this week. They are Lynch and Frank Gore. So, at 6/1 odds, I’d much rather take my chances on backing Gore to lead the rushing category this weekend. He had 82 yards on 18 carries in his first meeting with the Panthers this season.
Which Player Will Record the Most Receiving Yards?
- Demaryius Thomas (4/1)
- Eric Decker (6/1)
- Jimmy Graham (6/1)
- Julian Edelman (6/1)
- Marques Colston (6/1)
- T.Y. Hilton (6/1)
- Keenan Allen (7/1)
- Michael Crabtree (7/1)
- Anquan Boldin (10.1)
The Pick: T.Y. Hilton (6/1) – This pick goes hand-in-hand with the Luck pick to be the top passer. The Colts are short on weapons, and T.Y. Hilton is clearly the go-to guy. In fact, there might not be a more important receiver on the eight teams left than Hilton. Since Reggie Wayne went down, Hilton has really stepped his game up to make up for it. He had 13 receptions for 224 yards against the Chiefs last week. While it won’t take nearly 224 yards to win this prop, I believe Hilton is a safe bet for 100-plus. He is showing solid value here at 6/1 odds.
Saints vs. Seahawks Props
- Drew Brees Passing Yards (265.5)
- Marques Colston Receiving Yards (54.5)
- Jimmy Graham Receiving Yards (62.5)
- Russell Wilson Passing Yards (220.5)
- Russell Wilson Rushing Yards (32.5)
- Marshawn Lynch Rushing Yards (84.5)
- Golden Tate Receiving Yards (49.5)
The Pick: Russell Wilson OVER 32.5 Rushing Yards – Wilson lit up the Saints for 310 passing yards and 47 rushing yards in the Seahawks’ 34-7 triumph on Monday Night Football earlier this season. While I don’t expect him to be nearly as effective through the air this time around, I do expect him to make enough plays with his feet to eclipse this 32.5 number. He carried the ball eight times in the first meeting, and if he carries it that many times again, he’s a safe bet for 33 or more rushing yards this time around.
Colts vs. Patriots Props
- Andrew Luck Passing Yards (240.5)
- Donald Browns Rushing Yards (65.5)
- Trent Richardson Rushing Attempts (5.5)
- T.Y. Hilton Receiving Yards (72.5)
- Tom Brady Passing Yards (275.5)
- Julian Edelman Receiving Yards (75.5)
- LaGarrette Blount Rushing Yards (65.5)
The Picks – Andrew Luck OVER 240.5, T.Y. Hilton OVER 72.5 & LaGarrette Blount Under 65.5 – Are you starting to see a trend here? I’m all over the Luck and Hilton props this week simply because I believe the Colts are going to be playing catch up against the Patriots. Plus, New England is beat up defensively and will be susceptible this week. I look for Luck to top 300 yards passing by game’s end, let alone 240.5. Hilton should exceed 100 yards receiving as well, let alone 72.5. The reason I’m taking the LaGarrette Blount UNDER is because I do not trust him. While he has earned the starting role, he is one fumble away from being benched. You can never trust Patriots’ running backs to hold on to their jobs.
49ers vs. Panthers Props
- Colin Kaepernick Passing Yards (210.5)
- Colin Kapernick Rushing Yards (39.5)
- Frank Gore Rushing Yards (67.5)
- Anquan Boldin Receiving Yards (57.5)
- Michael Crabtree Receiving Yards (67.5)
- Vernon Davis Receiving Yards (547.5)
- Cam Newton Passing Yards (219.5)
- Cam Newton Rushing Yards (39.5)
- DeAngelo Williams Rushing Yards (49.5)
- Who Will Have More Rushing Yards (Colin Kaepernick -130/Cam Newton EVEN)
The Picks – Colin Kaepernick OVER 39.5 & Cam Newton UNDER 219.5 – Kaepernick led all rushers last week with 98 yards against the Packers. He is sure to use his legs to try and soften up Carolina’s defense. With a healthy Michael Crabtree on board, teams can no longer stack eight in the box to stop the run. That’s why I’d also lean toward the Gore over 67.5 rushing yards. Newton managed just 169 passing yards on 32 attempts in his first meeting with the 49ers this season. Asking him to get 220 or more to beat us is simply asking too much.
Chargers vs. Broncos Props
- Peyton Manning Passing Yards (325.5)
- Peyton Manning Touchdown Passes (3)
- Knowshon Moreno Rushing Yards (67.5)
- Demaryius Thomas Receiving Yards (85.5)
- Eric Decker Receiving Yards (75.5)
- Philip Rivers Passing Yards (265.5)
- Ryan Matthews Rushing Yards (70.5)
- Danny Woodhead Rushing & Receiving Yards (57.5)
- Keenan Allen Receiving Yards (67.5)
The Pick: Ryan Matthews Under 70.5 – I was on the Matthews UNDER 85.5 rushing yards last week against Cincinnati, and that came through with ease as he managed just 52 yards on 13 carries. Danny Woodhead and Ronnie Brown combined for 23 carries last week, serving as vultures on carries. I expect both Brown and Woodhead to play big roles again this week, limiting Matthews’ touches. Plus, the Chargers only ran the ball so much last week because they were ahead. Also working in our favor is the fact that Matthews suffered an ankle injury against the Bengals and is questionable to play this week. If he goes, there’s a good chance he’ll re-injure it. He only has to play for this prop bet to have action. There’s a good chance that the Broncos get off to a big lead as a 9.5-point favorite, which would force San Diego to abandon the run in the second half.