NCAAF Preview & Free Prediction: Purdue vs Minnesota

It may be late September, but this week’s Big Ten battle between the Purdue Boilermakers and Minnesota Golden Gophers could end up having serious bowl implications later in the season. The two teams will get started at 3:30 EST on Saturday, September 28 at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Indiana. The game will be broadcast on ESPN2.

According to the Week 5 college football odds, the Golden Gophers are 1.5-point favorites on the road. The over/under for the contest is set at 56.5 points.

Purdue vs Minnesota Vegas Betting Line & Game Preview

The Golden Gophers will play their Big Ten opener with a 3-0 record. It’s worth noting that all three of Minnesota’s wins have come by seven points or less. But the Gophers have managed to find a way to win in games against South Dakota State, Fresno State, and Georgia Southern. Obviously, they’ve yet to play a power-conference team, but both Fresno State and Georgia Southern were bowl teams last season, so those wins are nothing to scoff at.

More importantly, Minnesota is already halfway to reaching a bowl game for the second straight season. The issue for the Golden Gophers is that their schedule is backloaded with ranked teams. If they don’t become bowl eligible by the end of October, it’ll be tough to get there. They have to seize their momentum and keep the wins coming.

Purdue, on the other hand, is just 1-2 as they begin Big Ten play. In their defense, the Boilermakers have played a tough non-conference schedule. They managed to knock off Vanderbilt but took a loss against TCU. Purdue’s biggest problem is they lost their opener to Nevada in a game they were expecting to win.

As a result, the Boilermakers have to win five of their nine conference games to reach a bowl. With three games on their schedule against teams that are currently ranked, the margin for error is small. If Purdue loses to Minnesota, the path to a bowl game will look incredibly narrow, so this is almost a must-win game for the 1-2 Boilermakers.

The good news is that Jeff Brohm and the Boilermakers held serve in 2017 the last time P.J. Fleck and the Gophers visited West Lafayette. However, that’s Purdue’s only win over Minnesota in the last six meetings between the two teams. That includes a 41-10 blowout win for the Golden Gophers in last year’s meeting.

Free College Football Against the Spread Pick: Purdue +1.5

In a game that’s a virtual tossup, I’m going to side with the home team, especially when they need the win more. Minnesota’s 3-0 record is somewhat impressive, but they’ve all been close games. There should be an increase in the talent level they face with the start of Big Ten play whereas the Boilermakers should be better prepared given their non-conference schedule. I’ll take my chances with Purdue at home.

The biggest wildcard in this game is the status of Purdue quarterback Elijah Sindelar, who sat out the team’s loss to TCU a couple of weeks ago because of a concussion. He’s not been cleared yet, but he’s also not been ruled out, so there’s at least a chance he’ll play. I’ll be much more confident in Purdue winning this game if Sindelar plays as opposed to backup Jack Plummer, who struggled against a tough TCU defense in his first career start.

The Boilermakers are averaging just 2.1 yards per carry on the ground this season. Regardless of the competition level, that’s just not good enough. In an odd twist, the Purdue offensive line has only allowed four sacks in three games, so the Boilermakers have kept their quarterbacks upright. If Sindelar is able to play, he should have plenty of time in the pocket to air it out to Rondale Moore, who’s one of the most dynamic playmakers in the Big Ten. In the two games he’s played, Sindelar has thrown for over 900 yards and nine touchdowns. If he plays, he can carry the Purdue offense with or without a decent rushing attack.

On the other side of the ball, the Golden Gophers have also struggled to move the ball on the ground. Running the ball is usually a strength of Fleck’s teams, so Minnesota gaining just 2.6 yards per carry through three games is surprising. Having not played a power-conference team, the Golden Gophers don’t have a good excuse for such poor rushing stats.

Quarterback Tanner Morgan has helped to pick up the slack. He and the receiver tandem of Rashod Bateman and Tyler Johnson are the biggest reasons why Minnesota is 3-0. However, the Minnesota offense has also turned it over six times and allowed 11 sacks over their first three games. Again, that’s a red flag for a team that hasn’t faced a power-conference opponent this season. 

Again, this game could come down to whether Sindelar plays or not. If he’s cleared to play, the Boilermakers have a great chance to win. Even if he doesn’t, I still have some concerns about the Golden Gophers. Knowing that the Boilermakers need this game a little more, I’m comfortable taking them as home underdogs.

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