The Northwestern Wildcats will look to spring an upset this week when they host the no. 14 Michigan Wolverines. Kickoff is set for 4:30 EST on Saturday, September 29, at Ryan Field in Evanston, Illinois. The game will be nationally televised on Fox.
The Wolverines enter this game favored by 14 points on the road. However, that line has grown significantly after Michigan only opened as 11-point favorites. Be sure to check out a full list of this week’s college football odds.
It’s been a rough September for Pat Fitzgerald and the Wildcats. Northwestern managed to hang onto a win against Purdue in their season opener. But it’s been all downhill from there. The Wildcats have suffered home losses to both Duke and Akron to fall to 1-2 on the season. To add injury to insult, starting running back Jeremy Larkin has been forced to retire due to a narrowing of his spine, leaving the Wildcats without arguably their best offensive player.
One year after winning 10 games, Northwestern could struggle just to reach a bowl game in 2018. Including this week’s game against Michigan, the Wildcats have four more games this year against ranked teams. For now, Northwestern is 1-0 in Big Ten play and tied with Wisconsin atop the West division. However, the schedule ahead for the Wildcats will be challenging unless they can bounce back from some of the adversity they’ve faced this season.
Michigan, on the other hand, has bounced back nicely since starting their season with a loss against Notre Dame. The Wolverines have scored convincing wins over Western Michigan, SMU, and Nebraska. The Michigan defense looks like it’s developing into an elite unit once again while the offense appears to be coming along slowly. Of course, this week marks the first time the Wolverines will hit the road since that loss to Notre Dame.
While these two programs haven’t met since 2015, history, the Wolverines have won five straight games against Northwestern Over the last 50 years, Northwestern has only beaten Michigan just three times, most recently during a trip to Ann Arbor in 2008. That’s a lot of history for the Wildcats to overcome on Saturday.
First of all, I don’t think Northwestern is as bad as their 1-2 record indicates. Fitzgerald’s ship is certainly not sinking. However, the Wildcats have had trouble playing good football for a full four quarters. It ended up costing them against Akron and it will definitely be a problem against Michigan. If the Wolverines can continue to put everything together on both sides of the ball, I feel comfortable swallowing the points and leaning toward them to cover the two-touchdown spread.
My biggest concerns with Northwestern are on offense. Quarterback Clayton Thorson just hasn’t been good enough. His numbers are fine, but the three interceptions he’s thrown in Northwestern’s last two games have been costly. This week, he’ll face a Michigan defense that’s far better than any defense he’s played against this season. If you take away the Notre Dame game, the Wolverines are giving up just 11 points per game, and that’s against teams that theoretically are good offensively. I’m a little worried that Thorson could turn the ball over a couple times and hold back the Northwestern offense.
It also doesn’t help that Northwestern’s running game has been a disaster this season. Even before Larkin was forced to retire, the Wildcats were averaging just 3.2 yards per carry on the ground. To be fair, they’ve played decent competition in their first three games. But that kind of trouble running the ball is not what we’ve come to expect from Northwestern in recent years. The Cats are also lacking a proven backup for Larkin, and so the rushing attack could get worse before it gets better.
On the other side of the ball, the Wolverines are starting to get their offense humming behind their running game. Michigan could have a three-headed monster in their backfield if Chris Evans is able to return from injury this week. Northwestern has been solid defensively against the run this season, but I’d still be a little worried about how they gave up the big play against Purdue in their opener.
The Wolverines also have quarterback Shea Patterson just in case they need him. Patterson has been a little up and down as he adjusts to Jim Harbaugh’s scheme and offensive philosophies. The Wolverines also haven’t needed to air it out much the last three weeks. However, Patterson has the arm talent to take shots deep down the field, which gives Michigan the ability to score quickly.
For me, the bottom line is that Michigan is averaging 50 points per game over their last three games. I don’t expect them to reach that number against Northwestern, but with the explosiveness they’ve shown in recent weeks, I don’t expect Northwestern to keep them contained for four quarters. Considering Northwestern’s inconsistency on offense this year and lack of a running game, I don’t see the Wildcats keeping up. That makes me comfortable leaning toward Michigan to cover the 14-point spread.