The No. 4 Michigan Wolverines (21-3, 8-3 Big Ten) travel to face the No. 8 Michigan State Spartans (20-4, 9-2 Big Ten) on Tuesday, February 12th. This enormous Big Ten battle between Top 10 foes will be nationally televised on ESPN at 9:00 EST Tuesday night. Oddsmakers in Las Vegas have installed Michigan as a 1-point favorite over Michigan State.
Why Michigan Covers
The Wolverines have certainly passed the eye test this season as one of the best teams in the country led by Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. They have a lot more blowout victories on their resume than does Michigan State, which has simply found a way to win the majority of its close games.
Michigan has gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Michigan State. While they lost in East Lansing last season, the Wolverines did pull off a 61-57 upset as an 11-point underdog in their previous visit in 2011.
The Wolverines are 31-14-1 against the spread in their last 46 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Michigan is 37-18 against the spread in its last 55 games following a S.U. loss. The Wolverines are 19-9-1 against the spread in their last 29 road games. They will be highly motivated to bounce back from a tough overtime loss at Wisconsin over the weekend.
Why Michigan State Covers
The Spartans have gotten better as the season has gone along. While they aren’t the most flashy team in the country, they continue to get it done under head coach Tom Izzo. Their tough non-conference schedule is once again paying off as it has prepared them for this gauntlet of a Big Ten schedule, which they have gotten through at 9-2.
Michigan State simply does not lose at home. It is a perfect 14-0 inside the Breslin Center this season. It is scoring 71.2 points per game while allowing 55.5 points per game at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 15.7 points per game. The home team has won three straight meetings in this series.
The Spartans are 4-1-1 against the spread in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Michigan State is 4-1-1 against the spread in its last 6 vs. Big Ten opponents. The Spartans are 4-0-1 against the spread in their last 5 games following a S.U. win. The home team is 5-1 against the spread in the last 6 meetings.