Maryland Football Predictions

Former head coach Randy Edsall was fired following a loss to Ohio State midseason last year. The Maryland Terrapins played well under interim head coach Mike Locksley, but they lost heartbreaker after heartbreaker down the stretch.

The Terrapins finally put an end to an eight-game conference losing streak to open the season with a 46-41 home victory over Rutgers in the season finale to give them some momentum heading into 2016.

Now Maryland will be going in a different direction with first-year head coach DJ Durkin, who has worked under Urban Meyer at Florida and Jim Harbaugh at Michigan. He was the defensive coordinator for the Wolverines last season and guided three consecutive shutouts with one of the nation’s top stop units.

Durkin steps into a decent situation as the Terrapins return 12 starters and 44 lettermen while losing only 16 letter winners. It will be up to him to turn this program around, and it all starts with defense as the Terrapins must improve on that side of the ball, which is obviously Durkin’s specialty.

Last Season
Big Ten East
Record
ATS Record
Over/Under
Points For
Points Against
T-6th
3-9 (1-7 Big Ten)
7-5
7-4-1
24.7
34.4
2016 Maryland Terrapins Schedule
Date Opponent
Spread (Est.)
Win Chance
9/3 Howard
9/9 @ FIU
9/17 @ UCF
10/1 Purdue
10/8 @ Penn State
10/15 Minnesota
10/22 Michigan State
10/29 @ Indiana
11/5 @ Michigan
11/12 Ohio State
11/19 @ Nebraska
11/26 Rutgers
Estimated Wins: TBD
Offense

The offense managed just 24.7 points and 375 yards per game last season. The Terrapins actually were very effective on the ground, rushing for 201 yards per game and 5.5 per carry. They must improve their passing attack after completing only 47.4 percent of their passes for 174 yards per game.

That starts with senior QB Perry Hills, who completed 50.0 percent of his passes for 1,001 yards with eight touchdowns and 13 interceptions, while also rushing for 535 yards and three scores. But Hills will have to fend off senior Caleb Rowe and true freshmen Tyrrell Pigrome and Max Bortenschlager for starting duties.

Leading rusher Brandon Ross (958 yards, 10 TD, 6.4/carry) departs and is a big loss. Look for senior Wes Brown (317 yards, 3 TD, 4.5/carry) to get the first crack as the lead back in this offense.

Each of the top four receivers from last t year return, led by senior WR Levern Jacobs (35 receptions, 425 yards, 3 TD), sophomore WR DJ Moore (25, 357 , 3 TD) and junior WR Taivon Jacobs (21, 264, 2 TD). Also back is senior WR Malcolm Culmer (15, 221, 2 TD) and sophomore TE Avery Edwards (14, 115, 2 TD).

The offensive line will be hard-pressed to match last year’s solid performance. That’s because only two starters and 47 career starts return up front. The two return starters are senior LT Michael Dunn and sophomore RG Damian Prince. The Terrapins are expected to start three sophomores along the offensive line.

Defense

The Terrapins had their worst defense of the Edsall era last season in allowing 34.4 points and 421 total yards per game. It could prove to be difficult to improve upon those numbers considering only five starters return and they lose six of their top nine tacklers from a year ago. But if anyone can do it, it’s certainly Durkin.

Unfortunately, both Quinton Jefferson (6.5 sacks) and Yannick Ngakoue (13.5 sacks) left early for the NFL, meaning that 20 of their 30.5 sacks along the defensive line have departed. Returning will be senior DE Roman Braglio (35 tackles, 3 sacks) and senior DT Azubuike Ukandu (24 tackles, 6.5 for loss). Stepping into starting roles will likely be sophomore DT David Shaw and junior DE Jesse Aniebonam (23 tackles, 3.5 sacks).

Two starting linebackers return in leading tackler Jermaine Carter (103 tackles, 14 for loss) and junior Jalen Brooks (64 tackles, 2 INT). But Brooks will have to fend off junior Shane Cockerille for playing time at weak side linebacker after Cockerille moved from FB to LB this offseason. Also espected to start is sophomore Nnamdi Egbuaba on the strong side.

Only one starter returns in the secondary, but he is none other than two-time first-team All-Big Ten CB William Likely (44 tackles, 11 pass break-ups), who fortunately turned down the NFL. Durkin still likes this group because it features some upperclassmen taking on starting roles. Senior CB Alvin Hill (17 tackles), senior SS Denzel Conyers (15 tackles) and junior FS Josh Woods figure to step in.

Odds (Courtesy of 5Dimes)
Regular Season Win Total
Big Ten East Odds
Big Ten Championship Odds
4-Team Playoff Odds
National Championship Odds
5
+9500
+25000
N/A
+400000
Season Predictions

Despite going 1-7 in Big Ten play last season, the Terrapins were only outgained by 30.3 yards per game against conference opponents, so they were better than their record would indicate. They were -18 in turnover differential thanks to a whopping 29 interceptions thrown by their quarterbacks. Those are signs that they should have better fortune in 2016.

Durkin has a great reputation and will get the most out of this inexperienced defense that loses some key players to the NFL along the defensive line. The offense can only improve, but the key will be getting better QB play, and don’t be surprised if Durkin replaces Hills if he is ineffective early on.

I have the Terrapins getting off to a fast 4-0 start since they play Howard, FIU, UCF and Purdue (at home) in their first four games. But the remainder of the schedule is extremely difficult as I have them going 1-7 the rest of the way in what will be somewhat of a rebuilding year for Durkin and company in 2016.

2016 Projections
Big Ten East
Big Ten Record
Overall Record
Win Total Prediction
T-6th
2-7
5-7
Push 5
More College Football Predictions
Big Ten
East
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West
Conferences
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