The Illinois Fighting Illini hope to start moving in the right direction when they open the 2018 season against the Kent State Golden Flashes. The game is scheduled for noon EST on Saturday, September 1, at Memorial Stadium in Champaign, Illinois. Fans can watch the game on the Big Ten Network.
Based on the Week 1 odds, Illinois is a 16-point favorite to beat Kent State. Early betting has favored the Illini slightly after they hoped at -14.5. The over/under for the game is set at 56.5 points.
The Illinois fan base is no doubt starting to run out of patience with head coach Lovie Smith. In two seasons under Smith, the team is 5-19 with just two Big Ten wins. In Smith’s defense, he’s played a lot of young players during those two years, so it’s understandable that the Illini have taken their lumps. However, there need to be tangible signs of progress in 2018, and Smith certainly can’t start out the season by losing to a MAC team.
Of course, Kent State isn’t just any MAC team. They are arguably the worst MAC team. The Golden Flashes were 2-10 last season, with their only wins being a 7-point victory over FCS opponent Howard and a 3-point win over Miami (Ohio). Kent State is now handing things over to Sean Lewis, who is the youngest head coach in the country at age 31. Obviously, Lewis has a big project ahead of him.
The only other time these two teams met was to open the 2015 season. Illinois won that game 52-3. Of course, both teams have fallen on hard times since then and are hoping a win in their opener can signal better times ahead.
I’m going to take a leap of faith with this pick and lean toward Illinois. Neither team has high hopes or a lot of established stars heading into the season. In a way, that makes me think that this will be a low-scoring game in which Illinois struggles to just hang on for the win much less cover a 16-point spread. However, I’m going to trust that the talent Smith has recruited the past two years will start to grow up and take care of business against a MAC basement dweller.
The biggest x-factor in this game is the up-tempo offense that Lewis brings to Kent State. Lewis was the offensive coordinator at Syracuse last year. With the Orange, he orchestrated an offense that ran more plays than any team in the country, averaging over 85 per game. When executed properly, that offensive scheme puts a lot of pressure on opposing defenses and can really take off in the second half of games when the defense begins to tire.
However, the offense Lewis wants to run requires the right players. It also takes until the coach’s second year until everyone gets on the same page and things really start to click on all cylinders. That makes me a little skeptical that the Kent State offense will be rolling in the season opener.
Lewis is yet to announce his decision on his starting quarterback against Illinois, although both Dustin Crum and Woody Barrett should be capable of running the offense. However, the Kent State offensive line has been a disaster in recent years and doesn’t project to be much better this year. If the Golden Flashes can’t get a push at the line of scrimmage and run the ball effectively, the offense won’t go anywhere regardless of the tempo. After the Golden Flashes averaged 3.5 yards per carry last year, I have a hard time thinking they’ll have much success running the ball against Illinois.
Of course, the Illinois offense also has some questions to answer heading into the season opener. Smith has chosen Virginia Tech grad transfer A.J. Bush to start at quarterback. Bush is plenty talented but didn’t see much of the field at Virginia Tech, so his playing experience is limited. The Fighting Illini are also relying on a young offensive line to grow up in a hurry. Illinois started four freshmen up front a season ago, and while they gained valuable experience, it remains to be seen if they have the size and maturity to win in the trenches. Fortunately for Illinois, Kent State is nearly as young on the defensive line, so the Illini may be able to get enough of a push to help Bush and the offense get rolling.
Ultimately, I’m not convinced Kent State is ready to take a step forward. Lewis should move the program forward, but it may not happen right away. That could mean the Golden Flashes endure a lot of lopsided losses this year. Of their 10 losses last year, eight came by at least 17 points. That makes me think Illinois should be able to win comfortably against Kent State. I’ll take my chances on a young Fighting Illini team showcasing enough talent to cover a 16-point spread against the Golden Flashes