There’s a big battle in the Big 12 on tap for this weekend as the no. 24 Kansas State Wildcats visit the Oklahoma State Cowboys. Kickoff is set for 7:00 EST on Saturday, September 28 at Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, Oklahoma. Fans can watch the game on ESPN-Plus.
Oklahoma State is currently listed as a 5-point favorite at home. The over/under for the contest is set at 60 points. Be sure to check out a full list of this week’s college football betting odds.
The Wildcats and new coach Chris Klieman have had an extra week off to bask in their impressive win over Mississippi State a couple of weeks ago. K-State invaded SEC territory and came with a win in their last non-conference game of the season. On the heels of lopsided wins over Nicholls State and Bowling Green, the win over Mississippi State was enough to get the 3-0 Wildcats into the top-25.
Of course, the real season begins this week with the start of Big 12 play. While there are no easy games in the league this year, after this week’s trip to Stillwater, the Wildcats play three straight games at home. With a win this week, Kansas State will have a good chance to remain undefeated deep into October.
The Cowboys, on the other hand, are trying to bounce back quickly from last week’s loss to Texas in their Big 12 opener. Oklahoma State is still 3-1 after knocking off the likes of Oregon State and Tulsa early in the season. They also put up a good fight against Texas, losing 36-30 on the road and nearly beating the spread.
However, the last thing the Cowboys want to do is slip to 0-2 in conference play. If Oklahoma State can hold serve at home this week, they won’t play another team that’s currently ranked until their season finale against Oklahoma, so the schedule sets up well for the Cowboys if they can avoid a second straight loss.
The Cowboys will also be trying to avoid a third straight loss against Kansas State. The Wildcats have been triumphant over Oklahoma State the past two seasons, including a 45-40 win in their last trip to Stillwater two years ago. Of course, the Cowboys have won five of their last nine games with Kansas State, so they should feel confident about being able to win at home.
On paper, Kansas State’s win over Mississippi State looks impressive. But I can’t help but think it was a little bit of fool’s gold. Meanwhile, I like how Oklahoma State battled with Texas on the road last week. I think the Cowboys are too good to lose two in a row. I like Oklahoma State to bounce back this week and win by at least a touchdown to cover the 5-point spread.
During that win over Mississippi State, the Wildcats had the benefit of facing a quarterback in Tommy Stevens who wasn’t at full strength and wasn’t able to finish the game because of a shoulder problem. Even against a weakened MSU team, the Wildcats needed to force three turnovers and return a kickoff for a touchdown to get the win. While getting the win is still impressive, those circumstances probably won’t repeat themselves against Oklahoma State.
The Cowboys have an offense far more dynamic than any Kansas State has faced this season. The Wildcats looked vulnerable against the run in the Mississippi State game, and they’ll face a dynamic running back in Chuba Hubbard this week. They’ll also have to face a mobile quarterback in Spencer Sanders, who’s already rushed for over 300 yards in four games. That was another issue the K-State defense had against Mississippi State, and it’s another weakness the Oklahoma State offense is poised to exploit.
Of course, Sanders has also proven to be a competent passer early in his career. Admittedly, he didn’t have his best game against Texas. He can also be a little too reliant on Tylan Wallace at times. But that’s because Wallace is one of the best receivers in the Big 12. Sanders is a good enough passer to do some damage, especially since the K-State defense will have to respect the running ability of both him and Hubbard.
On the flip side, I’m still a little skeptical of the Kansas State offense. The Wildcats have run the ball effectively behind James Gilbert and Jordon Brown all season. But quarterback Skylan Thompson still worries me. He was just 10 for 18 for 123 yards against Mississippi State. If the Wildcats have to rely on him to throw the ball, I’m not sure he can deliver. Admittedly, the OSU defense has some holes. But I don’t think most quarterbacks will carve up their secondary the way Sam Ehlinger did last week.
As the home team, I think Oklahoma State can force this game to be played at their pace, which means we’re likely to see a shootout. It won’t get too crazy because the Cowboys need to run the ball to support Sanders. But I don’t like Thompson if Kansas State needs him to throw the ball 25-plus times. I think Oklahoma State should be able to pull away late and cover the 5-point spread.