Jets Titans Odds
The New York Jets (2-1) travel to face the Tennessee Titans (2-1) on Sunday, September 29 in a battle between two of the surprise teams of 2013 in the early going. Not many expected either team to have a winning record at this point of the season. Now, the winner will improve to 3-1 and have an excellent chance to play in the postseason.
The Jets have won five of the last seven meetings in this series, though the Titans won 14-10 in their most recent meeting in 2012. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:05 EST Sunday afternoon at LP Field. Oddsmakers in Las Vegas have installed Tennessee as a 3.5-point favorite over New York with a total set of 39 points.
Why Tennessee Covers
The Titans are very close to being 3-0 right now. Their lone loss came at Houston in overtime as a 7-point underdog. They have an impressive road win at Pittsburgh, and last week’s last-second home victory over San Diego. The Titans really dominated that game against the Chargers and should have won by more, outgaining them by 175 total yards. Jake Locker found rookie Justin Hunter for the game-winner with only seconds remaining to give both players a lot of confidence going forward.
Tennessee boasts one of the best defenses in the NFL. It is allowing just 18.7 points and 308.0 total yards per game to rank 9th in the league in total defense. The offense has been taking care of the football, not committing one turnover yet while forcing five for a +5 differential. Meanwhile, the Jets have turned the ball over eight times already, that that will not be a formula for success in the long haul.
The Titans were dominant defensively against the Jets in their meeting last year, winning by a final of 14-10. They limited New York to just 253 total yards while forcing five turnovers in the win. Chris Johnson had a big day on the ground, rushing for 122 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries. Jake Locker also rushed for 43 yards and a score while not turning the ball over once. Turnovers could very well be the difference in this game, and you have to like Tennessee in that aspect.
New York is 0-7 against the spread off one or more consecutive over over the last two seasons. It is losing in this spot 8.7 to 28.9, or by an average of 20.2 points per game. The Jets are 5-16 against the number in their last 21 games after gaining 6.5 or more yards per play in their previous game. The Jets are 0-7 against the spread in their last seven games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Tennessee is 4-0-1 against the number in its last five vs. AFC opponents.
Why New York Covers
The Jets are clearly one of the most improved teams in the league. They are a 10-13 loss at New England away from being 3-0 on the season, which was probably more promising than either of their two victories over the Buccaneers and Bills. Even more impressive is the fact that they are -6 in turnover differential on the season, so there’s still a ton of room for improvement. This team has shown it can overcome adversity with the turnovers.
A big reason for that is a defense that is one of the best in the league. In fact, New York is only allowing 16.7 points and 270.0 total yards per game to rank 3rd in the NFL in total defense. This stop unit should have its way with a Tennessee team that ranks 29th in the league in total offense at 309.7 total yards per game. The key to stopping the Titans is stopping Chris Johnson, and the Jets have the perfect antidote. They rank 6th in the league against the run, allowing 79.7 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry despite going up against some great rushing offenses in the Bucs, Pats and Bills thus far.
You also have to give the edge to the Jets offensively in this one. Amazingly, they are one of the most improved offenses in the league despite starting a rookie quarterback. New York is averaging 378.3 total yards per game to rank 10th in the NFL in total offense. Geno Smith has played pretty well for the most part, throwing for 801 yards through three games. Bilal Powell has been a beast at running back, rushing for 226 yards and a touchdown. The Jets also have better weapons this season with Stephen Hill, Kellen Winslow and Santonio Holmes all making plays for Smith.
Tennessee is 0-6 against the spread when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons. The Titans are 1-8 against the number versus good offensive teams that average 350 or more total yards per game over the last three seasons. Tennessee is 13-29 against the spread in its last 42 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Rex Ryan is 14-5 against the number off a home win as the coach of the Jets. Ryan is 9-2 against the number after gaining 175 or more rushing yards as the coach of New York. Mike Munchak is 1-9 against the spread when playing against a team with a winning record as the coach of Tennessee.
Mike Munchak is 1-9 against the spread when playing against a team with a winning record as the coach of Tennessee.
My Early Lean: Jets +3.5