The Indiana Hoosiers will hit the road in their 2018 season opener as they visit the Florida International Panthers. Kickoff is set for 7:00 EST on Saturday, September 1, at FIU Stadium in Miami. The game can be seen on the CBS Sports Network. The Hoosiers are listed as 10.5-point favorites on the road. See who else is favored this week and find previews on why we think that is going to our week 1 odds page.
Indiana showed some promise last year in Tom Allen’s first season at the helm. However, they fell one win short of bowl eligibility, finishing the season 5-7. With a little more luck in the injury department, the Hoosiers believe they can get to a bowl game in 2018. Of course, playing in the Big Ten east division means a brutal conference schedule. That means the Hoosiers can’t afford to lose to Florida International if they want to reach a bowl game.
The Panthers, meanwhile, are quite pleased with their 8-5 season under Butch Davis in 2017. Davis took FIU to a bowl game and led them to a winning record in Sun Belt play for the first time since joining the league in 2011. However, that has created expectations that could be difficult to meet with FIU losing some key players on both sides of the ball.
These two teams have actually met twice in the last three seasons, with the Hoosiers winning both games. A scheduled meeting last year was canceled due to weather and never made up. However, it looks like this year’s contest will happen, giving the Panthers a chance to knock off a Big Ten team on their home field.
To be frank, I’m not overly impressed with either of these teams heading into the season. Both have some serious questions that need answering on both sides of the ball, so I’ll admit this is a tough game to call. With that in mind, I’ll lean toward Florida International. Betting on this game to stay close seems like the best decision, especially when the home team is the underdog. I’ll take my chances with the Panthers at least being able to keep this game close.
Naturally, it all starts at quarterback, where neither team has a proven commodity. The Panthers are likely to play both Christian Alexander and Bowling Green graduate transfer James Morgan in the opener. Morgan has plenty of experience from his days at Bowling Green. But he was also turnover prone and didn’t always have the best accuracy. Alexander, meanwhile, saw time late in the 2016 season as a freshman but didn’t play at all last season. Obviously, neither has performed well enough in camp to win the job outright, so what to expect from either during the season is anybody’s guess.
The situation for Indiana is a little better. Sophomore Peyton Ramsey, who started a few games in the middle of last season, beat out Arizona transfer Brandon Dawkins during training camp. Ramsey was accurate last season, completing 65% of his passes. He also made a few plays with his legs. However, his arm strength leaves much to be desired, so he’s not much of a threat to push the ball down the field and challenge an FIU secondary that was terrible down the stretch last season.
The Hoosiers also have to find a way to overcome the loss of starting running back Morgan Ellison, who has been suspended indefinitely. Ellison gained 4.9 yards per carry last season and is probably Indiana’s best offensive playmaker. The Hoosiers aren’t exactly established on the offensive line, so it’s not as if they can just plug in the next running back and expect to be productive. After all, Indiana gained just 3.5 yards per carry last season. Moreover, the strength of the FIU defense is up front, so I expect the Hoosiers to struggle running the ball, putting a lot of pressure on Ramsey’s arm.
The Indiana defense, meanwhile, has some questions to answer with eight starters to replace. I have my doubts about their front-7 heading into the season. They don’t have many established pass rushers, which could be a problem when it comes to protecting a secondary that will have three new starters. Despite FIU’s questions at the quarterback position, they have some depth at running back and a few capable receivers, so there’s a good chance they’ll be able to move the ball against Indiana.
Ultimately, I think the Panthers will have a better chance to stay balanced offensively. They may start slow while they figure out what quarterback gives them the best chance to win. But Indiana also has to worry about having to prepare for both of them. I also have a little more faith in Davis. He’s far more experienced as a head coach than Allen, so I expect him to have FIU prepared for their opener. Between Davis and the Panthers playing at home, I feel confident that Indiana won’t be able to win comfortably enough to cover a 10.5-point spread.