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Florida Football Predictions

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It didn’t take long for head coach Will Muschamp to return Florida to a contender in the SEC. In just his second season on the job, Muschamp led the Gators to an 11-2 campaign after an upset 23-33 loss to Louisville in the Sugar Bowl. Florida went 7-1 in SEC play with its only loss coming to Georgia by a final of 17-9, which proved to be the tiebreaker in the East. The Gators simply beat themselves by committing six turnovers in the loss.

It will be tough to repeat least season’s success considering Florida returns just 10 starters while losing 23 lettermen. Muschamp has put together one of the best recruiting classes in the country, so the cupboard certainly isn’t bare. He is starting to prove that he belongs among the elite head coaches in the country.

The offense welcomes back six starters, including quarterback Jeff Driskel. The junior completed 63.7 percent of his passes for 1,646 yards with 12 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. The offense will only go as far as he goes. The biggest concern is losing leading rusher Mike Gillislee (1,152 yards, 10 TD) and top receiver Jordan Reed (45 receptions, 559 yards, 3 TD). Florida must find a way to get the ball into the hands of its top playmaker in Trey Burton a lot more often this season.

The defense carried the team lasts year, allowing a mere 14.5 points per game. With only four starters back, it’s certainly going to be very tough to match that number. That’s especially the case considering the Gators lose five of their top six tacklers, including third-team All-American DT Sharrif Floyd, second-team All-SEC LB Jonathan Bostic and first-team All-American FS Matt Elam.

Last Season
SEC East
Record
ATS Record
Over/Under
Points For
Points Against
2nd
11-2
7-6
5-7
26.5
14.5
2013 Schedule
2013 Florida Gators Schedule
Date Opponent
Spread (Est.)
Win Chance
8/31 Toledo
-21.5
1
9/7 @ Miami, Fl
-2.5
0.56
9/21 Tennessee
-12
0.85
9/28 @ Kentucky
-20
1
10/5 Arkansas
-17
1
10/12 @ LSU
+4
0.43
10/19 @ Missouri
-6
0.66
11/2 Georgia (Jacksonville)
+4
0.43
11/9 Vanderbilt
-11.5
0.83
11/16 @ South Carolina
+5
0.38
11/23 Georgia Southern
-35.5
1
11/30 Florida State
-2
0.56
Estimated Wins: 8.70

Florida draws a pretty tough non-conference schedule. It has to face Miami on the road, while finishing up its season with Florida State at home. Those in-state rivalries are always played close to the vest.

The Gators were unfortunate to draw LSU from the SEC East. They will have to travel to face the Tigers in Baton Rouge, which is one of the toughest venues in the country.

Another bad break is the fact that the Gators will have to travel to face SEC East contender South Carolina. It will play its annual game in Jacksonville against Georgia, which could decide the East.

Florida has to play four true SEC road games, while only getting three at home. It should make easy work of its opponents in those three home contests against Tennessee, Arkansas and Vanderbilt as it will be a double-digit favorite in each.

Odds (Courtesy of Bovada)
Regular Season Win Total
SEC Championship Odds
National Championship Odds
9.5
8 to 1
20 to 1
Season Predictions

The Gators certainly had a lot go right for them in 2012. They had four wins by 8 points or less with two of those coming against lowly Missouri and Louisiana. They simply took advantage of a pretty easy schedule and won 11 games.

Also, Florida had an offensive yards per point of 12.6 and a defensive yards per point of 19.9. That means they made the most of their offensive opportunities in the red zone, and they were stingy when opponents got inside their 20-yard line. While the 12.6 offensive YPP is sustainable, the 19.6 defensive YPP is not.

That’s especially the case when you consider that the Gators only return four starters on defense. They do have some talented recruits to fill the void, but there’s no question they will take a step back defensively in 2013. I’m also not sold on Driskel as he has yet to prove he can carry the offense. This team finished +15 in turnovers last year as well, which is another trend that points toward fewer wins for them this season.

The main reason I have Florida finishing 3rd in the East is the fact that they draw LSU on the road, and they also have to play South Carolina away from home. I look for the Gators to lose both of those contests, as well as their November 2 meeting with Georgia in Jacksonville.

2013 Projections
SEC East
SEC Record
Overall Record
Win Total Prediction
3rd
5-3
8-4
Under 9.5
Florida Football Resources
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About the Author: Jack Jones has been one of the top experts on the site while competing against roughly 80 of the best handicappers in the world each year. He has made most of his money on the hardwood. In fact, he has finished in the Top-5 in college basketball each of the last three seasons (#5 2011-12, #5 2012-13, #3 2013-14). He was also the No. 1 NBA handicapper from 2012-13. As of early April, Jack has compiled an 802-631 basketball run that has seen his $1,000 game players profit $124,030. He was the No. 3 College Football handicapper in 2012-13. While he doesn't have any top finishes in the NFL, he has produced steady profits without killing his clients. Jack also was your No. 7 MLB handicapper in 2009 and backed it up with a No. 8 MLB finish in 2010. No matter the sport, the one thing you can count on with Jack Jones is that he won't leave any stone unturned. You'll know why he is on a game with his detailed analysis, and more times than not, you will come out well ahead against your book. Head on over to Jack's premium pick page to see what he has in store for tonight!
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