There are certain teams that churn along in the background of college football, who we know by brand name if not last names.
Hawaii? Oh, yeah, they love to pass and are always the last open bet! Troy – I remember those guys, they play real good defense against that little conference they’re in. Purdue! Ah yes, score at least once while Ohio State or Wisconsin is killing you…we wanna hear that cannon!
And then there’s Toledo, a school that has been counted on to make random prime-time, mid-major contests entertaining since ages ago.
The Rockets play athletic and sound defense, are fun on special teams, can pass the rock like nobody’s business and have just enough big boys in the trenches to knock the heck out of Kent State and Bowling Green, and occasionally a Power-5 school. That formula has kept Toledo in annual competition for a New Year’s Six appearance and made the Rockets one of the most insta-recognizable G5 programs.
But a 3-2 record and a shadow of doubt creeping around Jason Candle’s team has caused betting lines to tighten around the Toledo Rockets’ trip to visit EMU on Saturday.
Who: Toledo Rockets at Eastern Michigan Eagles
When: Saturday, October 13th, Noon EST
Where: Rynearson Stadium, Ypsilanti, MI
Lines: Toledo (-1) at EMU (+1) / O/U Total: (64)
MAC teams often have mediocre records once they’re finished with OOC play at the start of the season. But there’s more to the concern in Toledo than just the 2 losses. Despite playing one of the worst teams in the FBS in Bowling Green last week, the Rockets were out-gained in the contest and are fortunate that they came away with the win.
Defense has been a sore spot for this team all season, but even more worrisome is the health of junior QB Mitchell Guadagni, who was injured in the 1st half of the game at Fresno State 2 weeks ago.
Since then, their offense has taken a major step back. Guadagni is a dual-threat QB and a difference-maker, and if he remains out, sophomore backup Eli Peters doesn’t offer much excitement. Mitchell’s injury updates throughout the week will heavily influence the betting market on both the side and total. The Rockets can be optimistic that they at least have a running back of the future in freshman local product Bryant Koback, an SEC transfer:
As the season has gone on, Koback has become more involved in the offense. He has 46 carries for 236 yards and five touchdowns and is coming off the best game of his career against rival Bowling Green in which he rushed 11 times for 90 yards and three fourth-quarter touchdowns to ice the game.
Koback was a three-star recruit coming out of high school. He suffered a serious leg injury his senior year at Springfield after he had racked up 1,096 rushing yards and 21 total touchdowns in just four-plus games. He spent a redshirt season at Kentucky while recovering from the injury. He then decided he wanted to be closer to home and chose to play at Toledo.
Candle hasn’t lost his recruiting touch. But he needs better quarterback play, at least until the defense can benefit from its own young diamonds in the rough.
Eastern Michigan is 2-4 and winless in conference play. The theme for this team after 6 weeks of the season? Good showings, poor results. Last week against the WMU Broncos, the Eagles were eventually undone by a weak pass defense and poor offensive execution, particularly on 3rd down.
EMU has been rotating QB’s Tyler Wiegers and Mike Glass III this season, and both have been fairly effective. Glass III is much more of a threat running the ball, while Wiegers has been more accurate throwing the football, so the coaching staff have used them situationally.
The issue for this offense has been their inability to run the ball with Shaq Vann. Vann is only averaging 3.83 yard per carry on the year with 2 touchdowns, a grave downer. If they get a better game out of their offensive line against Toledo, they should be able to have a little more success on the ground this Saturday.
One bright spot for Eastern Michigan is the school’s Red Zone defense, currently ranked top 10 in the FBS.
What we have here is a failure to communicate. No, really, what we have here is Vegas (bookies and gamblers alike) over-reacting to early-season results and missing the bigger picture. This is a powerhouse playing with its backup QB against a homestanding also-ran. If you can’t beat any other MAC teams, Toledo is not going to be your 1st victim.
A confident and experienced staff out-coaches the hosts. Take Toledo to pull away in the 2nd half and easily cover the spread against Eastern Michigan.