The Miami Dolphins are still in search of their first win of the season as they welcome to the Los Angeles Chargers to South Beach. Kickoff is at 1:00 EST on Sunday, September 29 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. Fans in South Florida and Southern California can watch the game on CBS.
According to our Week 4 NFL odds, the Chargers are 15.5-point favorites on the road. The over/under for the game is set at 44 points.
The nightmare most people predicted for the Dolphins this season has come true, and then some. Miami is 0-3 and has scored a grand total of 16 points in those three games. For what it’s worth, things have slowly improved for the Dolphins. They lost Week 1 by 49 points, Week 2 by 43 points, and Week 3 by only 25 points. In fairness, the three teams they’ve played are a combined 8-1, so they’ve played a difficult schedule. But they’ve also suffered three blowouts and failed to beat even the most generous of spreads.
Moving forward, things have a chance to get better. Starting with the Chargers on Sunday, Miami’s next five opponents have combined for just four wins in three weeks. Those games should let us know if Miami is just another bad team or a historically bad team.
Meanwhile, the Chargers aren’t exactly pleased with how their season has unfolded. After going 12-4 last season, L.A. has started the 2019 season 1-2. That one win came in overtime after the Chargers blew a fourth-quarter lead, so they could easily be 0-3 at this point. On the bright side, they had a chance to win both of the games they’ve lost, so it’s not yet time to worry.
Of course, a loss to the Dolphins would be a reason for the Chargers to panic. Fortunately, as long as Los Angeles can avoid a disaster in South Florida this week, they’ll come home to face the winless Broncos and Steelers the next two weeks. That puts the Charges in prime position to win three in a row, and possibly more, but only if they can take care of business this weekend.
In a way, this almost feels like a trap game. The Chargers are a west coast team playing an early game on the east coast and being expected to more than two touchdowns. On top of that, the Chargers haven’t won a game in Miami since the 1981 playoffs, covering over half a dozen road losses to the Dolphins. However, the Chargers are a little better than their record indicates and the Dolphins are as bad as their three lopsided losses indicate. I’ll eat the points and lean toward the Chargers to cover.
There’s no way to sugarcoat how bad the Miami defense is this season. Their best performance of the season was last week when they only allowed 31 points against the Cowboys. Of course, Dallas had two different running backs rush for over 100 yards in that game. The Cowboys spent most of the game just trying to run out the clock and the Dolphins still couldn’t slow down the ground game. Miami ranks dead last in most major defensive statistics, and there’s virtually no reason to think things will improve, especially with their two starting safeties listed as questionable this week.
Meanwhile, the Los Angeles offense ranks fifth in the NFL in total yards. The Chargers have had a little trouble finishing off drives in the end zone, but that should be less of a problem against the Dolphins. Austin Ekeler continues to produce as both a runner and receiver. Philip Rivers is averaging better than 300 yards per game. Also, Keenan Allen has been close to unstoppable at times this season, averaging over 130 yards receiving per game. Against the Miami secondary, Allen figures to run wild.
Offensively, the Dolphins have looked a little better with Josh Rosen at quarterback. But that doesn’t mean they’re going to actually find the end zone this week. In Rosen’s defense, this has little to do with him, which is unfortunate, especially after what he went through in Arizona last year. Through three games, the Dolphins are averaging 2.6 yards per carry and 45 yards per game running the ball. They also don’t have a rushing play this year longer than nine yards. No quarterback can work with a supporting cast that inept.
For what it’s worth, the Chargers have struggled to defend the run this season. But if they can get a handle on the Miami rushing attack or the offense gets an early lead, the Chargers will be able to unleash the pass-rushing duo of Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. Those two haven’t had a huge impact through the first three weeks, but this is the kind of game in which both could end up having multiple sacks.
In the end, it’s hard to find any reason to be optimistic about the Dolphins. Even if you admit defeat and look for reasons that Miami can beat the 15.5-point spread, they’re hard to find. The Chargers are far from perfect and have some questions to answer, but the L.A. offense has too much talent not to steamroll the lackluster Miami defense and ultimately score enough points to cover the spread.