The Dallas Cowboys will hit the road to begin their 2018 season, as they spend Week 1 visiting the Carolina Panthers. Game time is set for 4:25 EST on Sunday, September 9, at Bank of American Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. The game will be televised on Fox in most markets.
If we look at this week’s NFL odds, the Panthers are holding steady as 2.5-point favorites. This game also has an over/under of 42.5 points.
A year ago, the Cowboys had genuine hopes of reaching the Super Bowl on the heels of winning an NFC East title in 2016. However, they struggled to recover from a 2-5 start to the season, and in the end, going 9-7 wasn’t enough to get them into the playoffs in the NFC.
Dallas is hoping for a reprieve this season, although morale is low after the Cowboys went winless during the preseason. Part of the reason for their poor performance in exhibition games was holding out prominent starters like Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott out of fear of them getting injured. Of course, now they have to flip a switch and avoid another slow start in the regular season.
The Panthers also had Super Bowl aspirations last season, although they found life to be difficult in the NFC South. Despite the tough schedule, Carolina managed to finish 11-5. However, all that got them was a wild-card game on the road against New Orleans, who sent them packing in the first round of the playoffs.
Nevertheless, the Panthers are confident that they will once again be contenders in the NFC. Carolina still has a lot of the same players who helped them reach the Super Bowl three years ago, and with a little good fortune, the Panthers believe their Super Bowl window is still open.
In my opinion, Dallas is getting way too much credit with the line this small. I think the Cowboys have a lot of question marks, so starting the season on the road against a team that made the playoffs last year is far from ideal. I’d probably like Carolina if the spread were anything less than a touchdown, so this is a heavy lean in favor of the Panthers.
I understand the Cowboys sitting Prescott and Elliott for most of the preseason because an injury to either one would doom their season with absolute certainty. But they’re still young players and they need to get reps to get ready for the season. Both will need to be sharp right out of the gate if the Cowboys are going to beat the Panthers.
I’m concerned more so for Prescott, as he’ll be working with a lot of unfamiliar receivers this season. Dez Bryant is gone and Jason Witten retired, so complementary players like Cole Beasley and Terrance Williams will have to grow into larger roles while new additions like Allen Hurns and rookie Michael Gallup will have to step into prominent roles right away. But Prescott has had almost no opportunity to build a rapport with those players in game situations.
When it comes to Dallas running the ball, there’s a little less concern. Prescott and Elliott have enough track record in two seasons for opponents to know what they can do. Of course, that could be part of the problem. Teams like the Panthers will be able to focus on stopping the run until Prescott proves that the Dallas offense is also a threat to throw the ball down the field. I don’t see Carolina respecting Prescott as a passer until he can connect on a few passes outside of swing passes or check downs.
To make matters worse for the Cowboys is the uncertainty on their offensive line. Travis Frederick is out for at least Week 1 with Guillain–Barré syndrome, an illness that could keep him out much longer. Several other key members of the Dallas offensive line are fighting lingering injuries, so there’s little hope of that unit being at their best early in the year. That will make it a little easier for a talented Carolina front-7 to slow down the Dallas running game and force Prescott to beat them with his arm.
If the Cowboys are going to win this game, they may have to force a defensive slugfest, which is easier said than done. To be fair, Cam Newton was turnover prone at times last season. However, the Cowboys could have trouble keeping up with all of Carolina’s offensive weapons.
The Panthers have added Torrey Smith, Jarius Wright, and rookie D.J. Moore to help complement Devin Funchess and Greg Olsen. Then there’s Christian McCaffrey, who had 80 catches out of the backfield last season. He could be even more involved this season, which is a huge concern for the Cowboys. As long as Newton can avoid turnovers, it’ll be tough to contain the Carolina offense for 60 minutes.
I honestly have a hard time seeing how the Cowboys will stay competitive this game for four quarters. Even if Dallas didn’t have problems with their offensive line, the Panthers are still strong against the run. Carolina also has more skill players that opposing defenses have to worry about. I see the Panthers winning this game by at least a touchdown, covering the spread with ease.