The Washington Huskies take on the Colorado Buffaloes on Friday, December 2nd in the Pac-12 Championship Game. The Huskies have won six straight meetings in this series, including a 38-23 road victory over the Buffaloes in their most recent meeting in 2014.
Washington (11-1, 8-1 Pac-12) punched its ticket into the title game with a dominant 45-17 road win at Washington State in the Apple Cup last week. The Huskies easily covered as 6-point favorites, and Jake Browning threw for 292 yards and three touchdowns in the win.
Colorado (10-2, 8-1 Pac-12) held on for a 27-22 home victory over the Utah Utes as 11.5-point favorites last week. The Buffaloes won this one with defense, holding the Utes to 339 total yards while forcing four turnovers. The Buffaloes will now be playing in their first Pac-12 title game.
Kickoff inside Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA is set for 9:00 EST Friday night with FOX providing the television coverage. Taking a look at the Week 14 odds, I find Washington as a 7.5-point favorite over Colorado with a total set of 58 points.
I don’t see a ton of value in the side as I also peg Washington as roughly a 7-point favorite. If anything I would side with Colorado at +7.5 because there is some value there with the hook. But instead I’m going to recommend a play on the total of this game.
I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle between Washington and Colorado in the Pac-12 title game. These are two of the best defenses in the Pac-12, and they are the reason these teams were able to make the championship game. I think points will be at a premium here as both defenses come to play once again.
Washington gives up just 17.8 points per game, 329 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play this season. It is holding opponents to 11.3 points, 82 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play less than their season averages. Colorado gives up 18.7 points, 323 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play. It is holding opponents to 11.0 points, 88 yards per game and 1.1 per play less than their season averages.
The Buffaloes have held eight straight opponents to 24 points or fewer. The Huskies have held all 12 of their opponents to 27 points or fewer.
The Huskies rely heavily on their passing attack, but the Buffaloes have one of the best secondary’s in the country. The Huskies average 280 passing yards per game, while the Buffaloes allow just 186 passing yards per game, 5.4 per attempt and 48.5% completions to opposing quarterbacks. They actually have the manpower in the secondary to match up with John Ross and Dante Pettis, who have combined for 30 touchdown receptions for the Huskies this season.
The UNDER is 10-3 in Buffaloes last 13 conference games. The UNDER is 6-1 in Buffaloes last seven neutral site games. The Buffaloes have held eight straight opponents to 24 points or fewer. The Huskies have held all 12 of their opponents to 27 points or fewer. Points will be hard to come by in this one.
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