Florida State Clemson Odds
In one of the biggest games in the history of the ACC, the No. 3 Clemson Tigers (6-0) host the No. 5 Florida State Seminoles (5-0) on Saturday, October 19. The winner of this game has gone on to win the ACC Atlantic Division each of the last four years. It worked in favor of the Seminoles in 2012 as they posted a 49-37 home victory over the Tigers.
This huge ACC showdown will be featured on ABC at 8:00 EST Saturday night for all to see. If you are interested in wagering on it, then you will find Florida State as a 3-point favorite at Clemson.
Why Florida State Covers
The Seminoles have shown zero weaknesses this season en route to a perfect 5-0 start to 2013. They have gone on the road to beat both Pittsburgh (41-13) and Boston College (48-34) convincingly, but their 63-0 home victory over Maryland last time out really showed what this team is capable of. Now, they have had two full weeks to prepare for Clemson, while the Tigers are coming in on normal rest. The edge in preparation clearly goes to the Seminoles in this one.
Florida State has been absolutely dynamite offensively, scoring 53.6 points and averaging 555.0 yards per game to rank 4th in the country in total offense. Not one opponent has held the Seminoles to fewer than 41 points this year. Heisman Trophy contender Jameis Winston is completing 73.2 percent of his passes for 1,441 yards with 17 touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 135 yards and two scores. Kenny Shaw (23 receptions, 466 yards, three TD) and Rashad Greene (23, 407, 5 TD) are having monster seasons at receiver.
Florida State has been absolutely dynamite offensively, scoring 53.6 points and averaging 555.0 yards per game to rank 4th in the country in total offense.
The stop unit has been equally impressive, allowing 12.0 points and 278.8 yards per game to rank 7th in the country in total defense. Clemson has looked shaky offensively in two different games this season. It was held to 26 points against NC State and September 19, and just 24 points against Boston College on October 12. That’s the same Boston College defense that gave up 48 points and 519 total yards to Florida State on September 28. If one of these teams has shown a weakness, it has certainly been Clemson’s offense.
The stop unit has been equally impressive, allowing 12.0 points and 278.8 yards per game to rank 7th in the country in total defense.
Plays on a road team (FLORIDA ST) – solid team – outgaining their opponents by 75 or more yards/game, after gaining 450 or more total yards in 5 consecutive games are 26-7 (78.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Florida State is 20-8 against the spread in its last 28 games when the line is +3 to -3. The Tigers are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.
Why Clemson Covers
The Tigers have had this game circled on their calendars all offseason as they want revenge from last year’s 37-49 road loss to the Seminoles. I’m willing to excuse last week’s poor performance against Boston College in a 24-14 victory knowing that they were looking ahead to this game. In fact, I backed the Eagles last week because I knew it was a great spot to fade Clemson. Now, it might be an even better time to get back on the Tigers as 3-point home underdogs.
When you consider that the home team has won six straight and 10 of the last 11 meetings in this series, it’s safe to say that home-field advantage is absolutely crucial when these teams get together. Senior quarterback Tajh Boyd came back for his senior season to win a National Championship, and he knows that this game is crucial to doing so. I’d be more willing to trust the senior in this big-game situation than freshman Jameis Winston, who hasn’t playing in a real big game yet. Clemson had its big game in a 38-35 home win over Georgia to open the season.
Clemson’s offense is putting up 40.8 points and 514.5 total yards per game to rank 14th in the country in total offense. Boyd is completing 66.5 percent of his passes for 1,783 yards with 15 touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 187 yards and a team-high five scores. What impresses me most about the Tigers is the improvement from their defense. The stop unit is allowing just 16.2 points and 344.8 yards per game to rank 21st in the country in total defense. Their fierce pass rush will be critical in getting to Winston in this one.
The Tigers are 6-0 against the spread vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points per game over the last three seasons. Florida State is 0-6 against the number in its last six Saturday road games. The Seminoles are 4-14 against the number in their last 18 games after covering the spread in four of their last five games coming in. Florida State is 1-7 against the spread in its last eight road games overall, including 0-5 against the number in its last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Clemson is 10-3 against the spread in its last 13 conference games. The home team is 12-3 against the number in the last 15 meetings with Clemson going a perfect 8-0 against the spread in its last eight home meetings with FSU.
My Early Lean: Florida State -3