After last week’s tie, the Pittsburgh Steelers are still looking for their first win of the season as they prepare to host the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 2. Kickoff is set for 1:00 EST on Sunday, September 16, at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh. The game can be seen by a majority of the country on CBS.
If we look at this week’s NFL odds, the Steelers are listed as 5-point favorites at home. The game also has an over/under of 52 points.
As mentioned, the Steelers are coming off a rather embarrassing tie last week in Cleveland. In a way, it could have been worse, as the Steelers were practically begging the Browns to win the game by committing six turnovers, including three interceptions and two fumbles by Ben Roethlisberger. Of course, the Steelers also out-gained the Browns by nearly 150 yards and led by 14 points at the start of the 4th quarter, so they should be quite disappointed with themselves at failing to secure the win.
The Chiefs, meanwhile, picked up a big road win over the Chargers in Week 1. First-year starter Patrick Mahomes was impressive at times, throwing four touchdown passes while avoiding any turnovers. However, the Chiefs were out-gained by nearly 200 yards and benefited from an early punt return for a touchdown by Tyreek Hill, so they were not without some red flags of their own in Week 1.
These two teams have met three times in the past two seasons, including a playoff game during the 2016 season. Pittsburgh has won all three games, including a 19-13 win at Arrowhead last October. In fact, the Steelers have taken six of their last seven head-to-head meetings against the Chiefs.
Aside from being historically good, I’m not sure what the Steelers did to deserve being 5-point favorites this week because it’s definitely not based on last week’s performance. Pittsburgh came out of that game with a lot of questions and areas of uncertainty. If they couldn’t finish off the Browns, I don’t have a lot of confidence that they’ll be able to cover a 5-point spread against the Chiefs. I’ll lean toward Kansas City and the points.
To be fair, Pittsburgh’s defense played well last week. Even though they couldn’t quite close out the game late, they shut out Cleveland in the 1st half. The Pittsburgh defense also had to overcome the offense turning the ball over six times, which didn’t exactly make things easy for them. So I have to give the Steelers credit on that side of the ball.
That being said, they were also playing a team that’s limited at the quarterback position and has nowhere near the quality of skill players they’ll see this week. Mahomes is still inexperienced but he looked as calm as a five-year veteran last week. He has also developed good chemistry with Hill, who had seven catches for 169 yards and two touchdowns against a quality secondary. Hill has proven time and time again that he can be a game changer any given week.
Of course, I expect the Pittsburgh defense to dedicate a lot of attention to containing Hill. However, he’s not Kansas City’s only playmaker. In addition to Kareem Hunt and Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins is a constant threat on the deep ball, something the Steelers didn’t have to worry about against Tyrod Taylor last week. The Pittsburgh defense was also vulnerable last week when Taylor got out of the pocket and ran. They could have a similar problem with Mahomes, who has shown some mobility early in his career.
Of course, I also have some concerns about Kansas City’s defense after last week’s performance. Naturally, they gave up a ton of passing yards against Philip Rivers, which is expected after holding a lead all game. However, the Chiefs also gave up 5.6 yards per carry on the ground. With the way James Conner played last week in place of Le’Veon Bell, stopping the run could be a big problem for the Kansas City defense again this week.
However, one area where the Chiefs may have an edge is with their pass rush. Roethlisberger was sacked four times last week and under constant pressure from Cleveland’s pass rush, contributing to his five turnovers. With pass rushers like Justin Houston, Chris Jones, and Dee Ford, the Chiefs may be able to cause similar problems for Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh offense.
All things considered, I don’t trust the Steelers enough to swallow five points, even at home. I expect Pittsburgh to play better at home than they did a week ago. But I also expect them to have a difficult time keeping Kansas City’s playmakers contained the entire game. While it’s unlikely that the Steelers will turn the ball over six times for the second week in a row, resolving that problem is only part of the solution. Even if the Steelers pull out a win, it won’t be by more than a field goal.